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Energy industry leaders have warned the UK could fall behind a key target for new offshore wind power ahead of the results of a government auction that is widely expected to flop.

Multiple industry sources have told Sky News the auction, the results of which are expected to be announced on Friday, has received little or no interest.

Insiders say the process has struggled to attract bidders because the government has set the maximum price generators can receive as too low, failing to reflect the rising costs of manufacturing and installing turbines.

The industry has been hit by inflation that has seen the price of steel rise by 40%, supply chain pressures and increases in the cost of financing.

Several companies, including the UK’s largest renewables generator SSE, have ruled themselves out of the auction, with one source saying the number of potential bidders was “between two and zero, with expectations at the lower end of that range”.

The renewables auction is an annual process in which the government attempts to incentivise private sector investment in a range of power sources through a mechanism known as “contracts for difference” (CfDs).

Sky News understands SSE has held preliminary talks with a number of other utility providers
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SSE is among major players to have boycotted the auction

The auction works in reverse, with the government setting a maximum reference price, effectively a cap on what consumers can be charged, and in normal circumstances generators bid below that to provide power over a 15-year contract.

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Under the CfD, generators are guaranteed a price for the power they produce, with the government making up the difference if wholesale prices fall below that price.

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When wholesale prices are higher, as they have largely been since the Ukraine war began, generators pay the difference above the guaranteed price back to the Treasury.

‘The sums didn’t add up’

In theory this delivers value to consumers and suppliers but the chief executive of SSE, Alistair Phillips-Davies, told Sky News the price cap in this auction of £44MW/h, only a little above last year’s price, meant it was not viable.

“For the project we had, which is a little smaller than some and in deeper waters further north in the UK, we just wouldn’t have been able to even get a bid in at that cap price,” he said.

“The sums didn’t add up, we wouldn’t have been able to make an economic bid at that level. We’d have been struggling with write-offs, and we’ve seen some competitors in the sector have unfortunately suffered in recent weeks.”

Mr Phillips-Davies said the government needed to act now to ease market conditions for the renewables sector to ensure next year’s auction generated capacity.

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‘Who wants to open their curtains to a wind turbine?’

He suggested additional taxes on renewables profits be withdrawn in 2024 rather than 2028, bringing the UK in line with Europe, extending capital allowances to compete with the US subsidy regime the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as well as ensuring a more realistic price cap in the next auction round.

He pointed to a recent auction in Ireland, operating under a different structure, that set a price of €150 MW/h.

He said: “I think people will need to look at the cap, while being sensitive to what consumers should be paying, and what we’ve got to do is be ambitious next year.

“We’ve got to be thoughtful about what we do and make sure that the next auction is constructed not only to get people to win an auction, but to actually build a piece of kit.”

This auction round, technically known as Allocation Round 5 (AR5) is expected to attract bids for solar and onshore wind capacity, but failure to secure significant new offshore wind capacity would be a blow to the government’s target of reaching 50GW by 2030.

‘Fingers in their ears’

It will also intensify the increasingly sharp debate over the true cost of achieving net zero to consumers and the public purse, as the energy transition moves from abstract policy theory to practical delivery.

Insiders say officials were repeatedly warned by industry that the auction would fail unless the price was increased.

Shadow energy secretary Ed Miliband said this week ministers “had put their fingers in their ears.”

The UK currently has 14GW of functioning offshore wind capacity, placing huge pressure on the next two annual auctions to fill the gap.

Offshore wind is the backbone of the UK’s renewable energy supply, providing 40% of electricity last year, and the target is a crucial plank in the wider goal of reaching net-zero by 2050.

Previous auctions have been successful in increasing offshore wind capacity, with last year’s round attracting 7GW of capacity from five operators.

One of those projects, run by Swedish state-owned power company Vattenfall, has already been mothballed however because of rising costs hitting the industry.

‘Very difficult market’ for offshore wind developers

Lisa Christie, UK country manager for Vattenfall, told Sky News the investment model no longer matched economic reality.

“The economics at the moment simply don’t stack up,” she said.

“There’s a number of reasons for that. It’s the war in Ukraine, we’ve seen rises in inflation, we’ve seen rises in the cost of capital, obviously rises in commodity costs.

“You put all of that together. And it’s just a very, very difficult market environment for offshore wind developers right now.

“I think we’re at a very difficult point. And we have a lot of offshore wind farms, including Vattenfall, that haven’t been able to take fields where perhaps you wouldn’t have expected them to do.

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“So there is a challenge in the industry, I don’t think is insurmountable and there is still time for the government to turn this around.

“So what we’re really looking for is to put the CfDs back onto a financially sustainable footing and then we can reap the benefits that increased offshore wind deployment bring.”

Concerns UK will lose offshore wind superiority

Major suppliers to the industry are also concerned that any political drift in the build up to the election could see the UK lose its pre-eminence in offshore wind.

Laura Fleming, the UK managing director of Hitachi, which produces high-voltage direct cables that bring power onshore, said the UK needs to compete with more generous subsidy regimes around the world.

“The investment climate in the UK needs to send a clear signal that we are open for business, and compared to the IRA in the US, and the new green deal in Europe, we need to ensure that we still stand out.”

The renewables industry insists that even at a higher price in this auction, wind power would still be substantially cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives. At their peak last year wholesale gas prices were up to nine-times higher than offshore wind strike prices.

Renewables generated under CfDs can also return money to the taxpayer. Since the invasion of Ukraine forced up electricity prices many wind farms operating under CfDs have been paying back millions of pounds to the Treasury.

Mr Phillips-Davies said: “We’ve got to remember at the moment offshore wind is looking a bargain compared to wholesale energy prices. It’s half the price or less of where the current market is, so we need to be building more.”

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Bank chiefs to Reeves: Ditch ring-fencing to boost UK economy

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Bank chiefs to Reeves: Ditch ring-fencing to boost UK economy

The bosses of four of Britain’s biggest banks are secretly urging the chancellor to ditch the most significant regulatory change imposed after the 2008 financial crisis, warning her its continued imposition is inhibiting UK economic growth.

Sky News has obtained an explosive letter sent this week by the chief executives of HSBC Holdings, Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest Group and Santander UK in which they argue that bank ring-fencing “is not only a drag on banks’ ability to support business and the economy, but is now redundant”.

The CEOs’ letter represents an unprecedented intervention by most of the UK’s major lenders to abolish a reform which cost them billions of pounds to implement and which was designed to make the banking system safer by separating groups’ high street retail operations from their riskier wholesale and investment banking activities.

Their request to Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, to abandon ring-fencing 15 years after it was conceived will be seen as a direct challenge to the government to take drastic action to support the economy during a period when it is forcing economic regulators to scrap red tape.

It will, however, ignite controversy among those who believe that ditching the UK’s most radical post-crisis reform risks exacerbating the consequences of any future banking industry meltdown.

In their letter to the chancellor, the quartet of bank chiefs told Ms Reeves that: “With global economic headwinds, it is crucial that, in support of its Industrial Strategy, the government’s Financial Services Growth and Competitiveness Strategy removes unnecessary constraints on the ability of UK banks to support businesses across the economy and sends the clearest possible signal to investors in the UK of your commitment to reform.

“While we welcomed the recent technical adjustments to the ring-fencing regime, we believe it is now imperative to go further.

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“Removing the ring-fencing regime is, we believe, among the most significant steps the government could take to ensure the prudential framework maximises the banking sector’s ability to support UK businesses and promote economic growth.”

Work on the letter is said to have been led by HSBC, whose new chief executive, Georges Elhedery, is among the signatories.

His counterparts at Lloyds, Charlie Nunn; NatWest’s Paul Thwaite; and Mike Regnier, who runs Santander UK, also signed it.

While Mr Thwaite in particular has been public in questioning the continued need for ring-fencing, the letter – sent on Tuesday – is the first time that such a collective argument has been put so forcefully.

The only notable absentee from the signatories is CS Venkatakrishnan, the Barclays chief executive, although he has publicly said in the past that ring-fencing is not a major financial headache for his bank.

Other industry executives have expressed scepticism about that stance given that ring-fencing’s origination was largely viewed as being an attempt to solve the conundrum posed by Barclays’ vast investment banking operations.

The introduction of ring-fencing forced UK-based lenders with a deposit base of at least £25bn to segregate their retail and investment banking arms, supposedly making them easier to manage in the event that one part of the business faced insolvency.

Banks spent billions of pounds designing and setting up their ring-fenced entities, with separate boards of directors appointed to each division.

More recently, the Treasury has moved to increase the deposit threshold from £25bn to £35bn, amid pressure from a number of faster-growing banks.

Sam Woods, the current chief executive of the main banking regulator, the Prudential Regulation Authority, was involved in formulating proposals published by the Sir John Vickers-led Independent Commission on Banking in 2011.

Legislation to establish ring-fencing was passed in the Financial Services Reform (Banking) Act 2013, and the regime came into effect in 2019.

In addition to ring-fencing, banks were forced to substantially increase the amount and quality of capital they held as a risk buffer, while they were also instructed to create so-called ‘living wills’ in the event that they ran into financial trouble.

The chancellor has repeatedly spoken of the need to regulate for growth rather than risk – a phrase the four banks hope will now persuade her to abandon ring-fencing.

Britain is the only major economy to have adopted such an approach to regulating its banking industry – a fact which the four bank chiefs say is now undermining UK competitiveness.

“Ring-fencing imposes significant and often overlooked costs on businesses, including SMEs, by exposing them to banking constraints not experienced by their international competitors, making it harder for them to scale and compete,” the letter said.

“Lending decisions and pricing are distorted as the considerable liquidity trapped inside the ring-fence can only be used for limited purposes.

“Corporate customers whose financial needs become more complex as they grow larger, more sophisticated, or engage in international trade, are adversely affected given the limits on services ring-fenced banks can provide.

“Removing ring-fencing would eliminate these cliff-edge effects and allow firms to obtain the full suite of products and services from a single bank, reducing administrative costs”.

In recent months, doubts have resurfaced about the commitment of Spanish banking giant Santander to its UK operations amid complaints about the costs of regulation and supervision.

The UK’s fifth-largest high street lender held tentative conversations about a sale to either Barclays or NatWest, although they did not progress to a formal stage.

HSBC, meanwhile, is particularly restless about the impact of ring-fencing on its business, given its sprawling international footprint.

“There has been a material decline in UK wholesale banking since ring-fencing was introduced, to the detriment of British businesses and the perception of the UK as an internationally orientated economy with a global financial centre,” the letter said.

“The regime causes capital inefficiencies and traps liquidity, preventing it from being deployed efficiently across Group entities.”

The four bosses called on Ms Reeves to use this summer’s Mansion House dinner – the City’s annual set-piece event – to deliver “a clear statement of intent…to abolish ring-fencing during this Parliament”.

Doing so, they argued, would “demonstrate the government’s determination to do what it takes to promote growth and send the strongest possible signal to investors of your commitment to the City and to strengthen the UK’s position as a leading international financial centre”.

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Post Office to unveil £1.75bn banking deal with big British lenders

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Post Office to unveil £1.75bn banking deal with big British lenders

The Post Office will next week unveil a £1.75bn deal with dozens of banks which will allow their customers to continue using Britain’s biggest retail network.

Sky News has learnt the next Post Office banking framework will be launched next Wednesday, with an agreement that will deliver an additional £500m to the government-owned company.

Banking industry sources said on Friday the deal would be worth roughly £350m annually to the Post Office – an uplift from the existing £250m-a-year deal, which expires at the end of the year.

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The sources added that in return for the additional payments, the Post Office would make a range of commitments to improving the service it provides to banks’ customers who use its branches.

Banks which participate in the arrangements include Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest Group and Santander UK.

Under the Banking Framework Agreement, the 30 banks and mutuals’ customers can access the Post Office’s 11,500 branches for a range of services, including depositing and withdrawing cash.

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The service is particularly valuable to those who still rely on physical cash after a decade in which well over 6,000 bank branches have been closed across Britain.

In 2023, more than £10bn worth of cash was withdrawn over the counter and £29bn in cash was deposited over the counter, the Post Office said last year.

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A new, longer-term deal with the banks comes at a critical time for the Post Office, which is trying to secure government funding to bolster the pay of thousands of sub-postmasters.

Reliant on an annual government subsidy, the reputation of the network’s previous management team was left in tatters by the Horizon IT scandal and the wrongful conviction of hundreds of sub-postmasters.

A Post Office spokesperson declined to comment ahead of next week’s announcement.

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Trump trade war: How UK figures show his tariff argument doesn’t add up

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Trump trade war: How UK figures show his tariff argument doesn't add up

As Chancellor Rachel Reeves meets her counterpart, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent to discuss an “economic agreement” between the two countries, the latest trade figures confirm three realities that ought to shape negotiations.

The first is that the US remains a vital customer for UK businesses, the largest single-nation export market for British goods and the third-largest import partner, critical to the UK automotive industry, already landed with a 25% tariff, and pharmaceuticals, which might yet be.

In 2024 the US was the UK’s largest export market for cars, worth £9bn to companies including Jaguar Land Rover, Bentley and Aston Martin, and accounting for more than 27% of UK automotive exports.

Little wonder the domestic industry fears a heavy and immediate impact on sales and jobs should tariffs remain.

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American car exports to the UK by contrast are worth just £1bn, which may explain why the chancellor may be willing to lower the current tariff of 10% to 2.5%.

For UK medicines and pharmaceutical producers meanwhile, the US was a more than £6bn market in 2024. Currently exempt from tariffs, while Mr Trump and his advisors think about how to treat an industry he has long-criticised for high prices, it remains vulnerable.

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The second point is that the US is even more important for the services industry. British exports of consultancy, PR, financial and other professional services to America were worth £131bn last year.

That’s more than double the total value of the goods traded in the same direction, but mercifully services are much harder to hammer with the blunt tool of tariffs, though not immune from regulation and other “non-tariff barriers”.

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The third point is that, had Donald Trump stuck to his initial rationale for tariffs, UK exporters should not be facing a penny of extra cost for doing business with the US.

The president says he slapped blanket tariffs on every nation bar Russia to “rebalance” the US economy and reverse goods trade ‘deficits’ – in which the US imports more than it exports to a given country.

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That heavily contested argument might apply to Mexico, Canada, China and many other manufacturing nations, but it does not meaningfully apply to Britain.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show the US ran a small goods trade deficit with the UK in 2024 of £2.2bn, importing £59.3bn of goods against exports of £57.1bn.

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Add in services trade, in which the UK exports more than double what it imports from the US, and the UK’s surplus – and thus the US ‘deficit’ – swells to nearly £78bn.

That might be a problem were it not for the US’ own accounts of the goods and services trade with Britain, which it says actually show a $15bn (£11.8bn) surplus with the UK.

You might think that they cannot both be right, but the ONS disagrees. The disparity is caused by the way the US Bureau of Economic Analysis accounts for services, as well as a range of statistical assumptions.

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“The presence of trade asymmetries does not indicate that either country is inaccurate in their estimation,” the ONS said.

That might be encouraging had Mr Trump not ignored his own arguments and landed the UK, like everyone else in the world, with a blanket 10% tariff on all goods.

Trade agreements are notoriously complex, protracted affairs, which helps explain why after nine years of trying the UK still has not got one with the US, and the Brexit deal it did with the EU against a self-imposed deadline has been proved highly disadvantageous.

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