Demand for oil, gas and coal will peak by 2030, but that’s not fast enough to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees, says IEA chief
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), poses for a photograph during an interview with AFP at the Africa Climate Summit 2023 at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) in Nairobi on September 4, 2023.
Simon Maina | Afp | Getty Images
Demand for fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal will hit an all-time high before 2030, according to Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency.
That’s notable progress for the global fight against climate change, but it’s not fast enough to keep global warming within the internationally supported target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, Birol said.
“Despite recurring talk of peak oil and peak coal over the years, both fuels are hitting all-time highs, making it easier to push back against any assertions that they could soon be on the wane. But according to new projections from the International Energy Agency, this age of seemingly relentless growth is set to come to an end this decade, bringing with it significant implications for the global energy sector and the fight against climate change,” Birol wrote in an op-ed published in the Financial Times.
The IEA is a global intergovernmental energy agency founded in 1974 after the oil crisis in 1973, and which now includes in its energy charter clean energy and the global energy transition.
Birol’s assessment is based off of the IEA’s forthcoming report, the World Energy Outlook, which is due out in October and which will show “the world is on the cusp of a historic turning point,” Birol said.
The sea change in energy demand is due to, among other reasons, growth of clean energy technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles, and current global governmental policies, Birol said.
“Based only on today’s policy settings by governments worldwide — even without any new climate policies — demand for each of the three fossil fuels is set to hit a peak in the coming years. This is the first time that a peak in demand is visible for each fuel this decade — earlier than many people anticipated,” Birol said.
China is the largest consumer of coal, but Birol said China has seen a growth in its use of renewable and nuclear energy. Also, China’s slowing economy will decrease its use of coal, Birol said.
The surge in adoption of electric vehicles, including in China, contributes to the IEA’s forecast that oil demand will peak before 2030. The growth in adoption and use of electric buses and two and three-wheeled scooters is also contributing to the expected peak of oil, Birol said.
16 May 2023, Saxony, Lippendorf: The evening sun shines on the cooling towers of Lippendorf power plant behind a solar park. The power plant burns lignite from surrounding opencast mines to generate electricity and heat. The phase-out of lignite will end coal-fired power generation here in 2035 at the latest.
Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
The “Golden Age of Gas,” which the IEA dubbed in 2011, is set to fade because of the growth in renewables, Birol said. Also, the rise in the use of heat pumps for temperature regulation and Europe’s forced accelerated transition off of Russian pipelines of gas following the Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to the IEA’s view that gas demand will peak this decade, Birol said.
The drop-off in demand for fossil fuels will be more accelerated in advanced economies, and the climate benefits of that will be at least in part offset by the growth in demand for fossil fuels, especially gas, in emerging and developing economies, Birol said.
Also, the global trends away from fossil fuels will be interrupted by extreme weather events. Heatwaves drive demand for electricity up and droughts make hydropower less available, so in those instances, Birol predicted some spikes in demand.
Since 2015, global leaders have underscored the importance of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to stave off ever more extreme heatwaves, droughts and flooding.
Even as the peak for fossil fuels appear to be closer than previously expected, fossil fuel use is not declining fast enough to be sure the Earth stays within the target of 1.5 degree Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels.
“The projected declines in demand we see based on today’s policy settings are nowhere near steep enough to put the world on a path to limiting global warming to 1.5C. That will require significantly stronger and faster policy action by governments,” Birol said.
The all-electric luxury electric SUV is getting significantly cheaper. Lexus launched a new entry-level 2025 RZ trim with starting prices over $10,000 less than last year’s model. And you get just as much driving range.
2025 Lexus RZ electric SUV prices and driving range
Lexus launched its first dedicated EV last year, the RZ electric SUV. Starting at $55,175, the 2024 Lexus RZ 300e has a range of up to 266 miles.
The 2024 RZ 450e AWD, equipped with its dual-moto DIRECT4 system, has a range of up to 196 miles. Prices start at just under $60,000. Both models are offered in Premium or Luxury packages.
Lexus is drastically lowering prices for the 2025 model year. The 2025 Lexus RZ starts at $43,975, and that includes the $1,175 delivery fee.
At under $44,000, prices for the 2025 RZ start at over $10,000 less than last year’s model. The lower price tag comes as Lexus added a new entry-level RZ 300e FWD trim to the lineup.
The 2025 Lexus RZ 300e FWD still has an EPA-estimated 266-mile range (18″ wheels), so despite the lower price, it’s no loss from last year’s model. It’s powered by a 72.8 kWh battery pack from global leader CATL.
Lexus modified the subframe for the FWD model, replacing the rear eAxle from the AWD model. The result is a quieter, smoother drive.
Powered by a 71.4 kWh battery, the 2025 RZ 450e AWD has an EPA-estimated driving range of up to 220 miles (18″ wheels).
| 2025 Lexus RZ model | Starting Price* | EPA-estimated Driving Range |
| RZ 450e AWD | $48,675 | 220 miles |
| RZ 450e Premium AWD w/ 18″ Wheel | $52,875 | 220 miles |
| RZ 450e Premium AWD w/ 20″ Wheel | $54,115 | 196 miles |
| RZ 450e Luxury AWD | $58,605 | 220 miles |
| RZ 300e FWD | $43,975 | 266 miles |
| RZ 300e Premium FWD w/ 18″ Wheel | $48,175 | 266 miles |
| RZ 300e Premium FWD w/ 20″ Wheel | $49,415 | 224 miles |
| RZ 300e Luxury FWD | $53,905 | 266 miles |
The 2025 Lexus RZ is available in three grades. These include the new entry-level model, in addition to the current Premium and Luxury trims.
Inside, the electric SUV has a minimalistic feel with a standard 14″ infotainment with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto support at the center.
You can also opt for the available 10″ head-up display (HUD), Mark Levinson Surround Sound System, and a host of safety features.
The flat platform provides a spacious interior with 37.52″ of rear legroom, nearly as much as the second row of a Ford Explorer (39″).
With the 2025 model arriving at dealerships soon, Lexus is offering closeout prices on 2024 models with up to $18,500 in lease cash discounts. You can use our link to find the best offers on the Lexus RZ at a dealer near you today.
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Environment
‘Political malpractice’ if Trump undoes climate-geared Biden projects, outgoing U.S. energy secretary says
U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm speaks to the media on day five at the UNFCCC COP29 Climate Conference on November 15, 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images
A potential decision by Donald Trump to walk back the Biden administration’s climate-geared projects would impact jobs in areas governed by the President-elect’s own party, outgoing U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told CNBC, urging consistency in Washington’s green transition policies.
Referencing the White House’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement — a 2015 treaty in which nearly 200 governments made non-binding pledges to reduce greenhouse emissions — during Trump’s first mandate, Granholm said the U.S. pressed ahead with projects linked to the green transition that members of Congress wanted to undertake in their districts.
“We are now building all of these projects. We’re building batteries for electric vehicles, we’re building the vehicles, we’re building the offshore wind turbines, we’re building the solar panels. And all of those are factories. And those factories are in districts of members of Congress,” she told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Friday at the COP29 U.N. climate conference held in Baku, Azerbaijan.
She estimated that 80% of the funding from U.S. President Joe Biden’s legacy bills — the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law — went to U.S. districts represented by Republican leadership.
“It would be political malpractice to undo those opportunities when people are just now getting hired,” she said, stressing benefits to the manufacturing sector and noting that the business community of the world’s largest economy and oil producer now wants a clear course from Washington on its climate policy.
“This isn’t about in [the Paris Agreement], out, shifting back and forth. Let’s have a consistent practice,” she said.
When asked for a response on Granholm’s comments, Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Trump’s transition team, said the president-elect will “deliver” on the promises he made on the campaign trail.
International focus has now shifted on the shape of the U.S.’ future role in global climate policy, as Trump prepares to take the helm at the White House for a second mandate in January, following a sweeping victory against Democrat candidate Kamala Harris. Trump — who has yet to announce his own pick to lead the U.S. Department of Energy — put hydrocarbons at the front and center of his campaigning agenda, pledging to “end Biden’s delays in federal drilling permits and leases that are needed to unleash American oil and natural gas production.”
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in March said that the country already “produced more crude oil than any nation at any time” for the past six years to 2023, averaging a crude oil and condensate production of 12.9 million barrels per day that year — breaking the previous U.S. and global record of 12.3 million barrels per day recorded in 2019, during Trump’s first mandate.
Yet Granholm on Friday stressed that the clean transition is also “unleashed” and will take place regardless of who is leading the White House — and that ignoring climate change risks sacrificing Washington’s position as a frontrunner in the blooming decarbonization industry.
“Why would we take a second, a backseat to an economic competitor like China?” she asked. “They have an economic strategy, they want to be number one. So if we get out of the game, we’re just going to cede that territory all over again. It’s bad strategy for the United States and for workers and for communities across the country.”
As the world braces for the possibility of a second U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement, some climate activists note that the green transition has now gained a different global momentum than during Trump’s first turn at the White House:
“There is no denying that another Trump presidency will stall national efforts to tackle the climate crisis and protect the environment, but most U.S. state, local, and private sector leaders are committed to charging ahead,” Dan Lashof, U.S. director of the World Resources Institute, said in a Nov. 6 statement.
“Donald Trump heading back to the White House won’t be a death knell to the clean energy transition that has rapidly picked up pace these last four years.”
Granholm also identified potential support in Trump’s current entourage, which this week welcomed business tycoon Elon Musk as the president-elect’s choice to head a new Department of Government Efficiency, alongside conservative activist Vivek Ramaswamy:
“His right-hand man, Elon Musk, is somebody who has been strongly in favor of products that … address climate change. Obviously, he’s the founder of Tesla,” Granholm pointed out.
Musk’s environmental stance has come under question over the years, shifting from telling Rolling Stone magazine that “climate change is the biggest threat that humanity faces this century, except for AI” and backing carbon taxes to holding that the world needs hydrocarbon supplies as a bridge to renewable energy.
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