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Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), poses for a photograph during an interview with AFP at the Africa Climate Summit 2023 at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) in Nairobi on September 4, 2023.

Simon Maina | Afp | Getty Images

Demand for fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal will hit an all-time high before 2030, according to Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency.

That’s notable progress for the global fight against climate change, but it’s not fast enough to keep global warming within the internationally supported target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, Birol said.

“Despite recurring talk of peak oil and peak coal over the years, both fuels are hitting all-time highs, making it easier to push back against any assertions that they could soon be on the wane. But according to new projections from the International Energy Agency, this age of seemingly relentless growth is set to come to an end this decade, bringing with it significant implications for the global energy sector and the fight against climate change,” Birol wrote in an op-ed published in the Financial Times.

The IEA is a global intergovernmental energy agency founded in 1974 after the oil crisis in 1973, and which now includes in its energy charter clean energy and the global energy transition.

Birol’s assessment is based off of the IEA’s forthcoming report, the World Energy Outlook, which is due out in October and which will show “the world is on the cusp of a historic turning point,” Birol said.

The sea change in energy demand is due to, among other reasons, growth of clean energy technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles, and current global governmental policies, Birol said.

“Based only on today’s policy settings by governments worldwide — even without any new climate policies — demand for each of the three fossil fuels is set to hit a peak in the coming years. This is the first time that a peak in demand is visible for each fuel this decade — earlier than many people anticipated,” Birol said.

China is the largest consumer of coal, but Birol said China has seen a growth in its use of renewable and nuclear energy. Also, China’s slowing economy will decrease its use of coal, Birol said.

The surge in adoption of electric vehicles, including in China, contributes to the IEA’s forecast that oil demand will peak before 2030. The growth in adoption and use of electric buses and two and three-wheeled scooters is also contributing to the expected peak of oil, Birol said.

16 May 2023, Saxony, Lippendorf: The evening sun shines on the cooling towers of Lippendorf power plant behind a solar park. The power plant burns lignite from surrounding opencast mines to generate electricity and heat. The phase-out of lignite will end coal-fired power generation here in 2035 at the latest.

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The “Golden Age of Gas,” which the IEA dubbed in 2011, is set to fade because of the growth in renewables, Birol said. Also, the rise in the use of heat pumps for temperature regulation and Europe’s forced accelerated transition off of Russian pipelines of gas following the Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to the IEA’s view that gas demand will peak this decade, Birol said.

The drop-off in demand for fossil fuels will be more accelerated in advanced economies, and the climate benefits of that will be at least in part offset by the growth in demand for fossil fuels, especially gas, in emerging and developing economies, Birol said.

Also, the global trends away from fossil fuels will be interrupted by extreme weather events. Heatwaves drive demand for electricity up and droughts make hydropower less available, so in those instances, Birol predicted some spikes in demand.

Since 2015, global leaders have underscored the importance of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to stave off ever more extreme heatwaves, droughts and flooding.

Even as the peak for fossil fuels appear to be closer than previously expected, fossil fuel use is not declining fast enough to be sure the Earth stays within the target of 1.5 degree Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels.

“The projected declines in demand we see based on today’s policy settings are nowhere near steep enough to put the world on a path to limiting global warming to 1.5C. That will require significantly stronger and faster policy action by governments,” Birol said.

America's decaying oil and gas wells will cost billions to clean up

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1 in 4 cars sold in 2025 will be EVs, and that’s just the beginning

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1 in 4 cars sold in 2025 will be EVs, and that's just the beginning

More than 1 in 4 cars sold around the world in 2025 are expected to be EVs, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). And if EVs stay on track, they could make up over 40% of global car sales by 2030.

The IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2025 report, released today, shows the electric car market is still charging ahead, even with some bumps in the road. Despite economic pressures on the auto sector, EV sales hit a record 17 million in 2024, pushing their global market share past 20% for the first time. That momentum carried into early 2025, with EV sales jumping 35% in Q1 year-over-year. All major markets saw record-breaking Q1 numbers.

China continues to lead the EV race by a wide margin. Nearly half the cars sold there in 2024 were electric. That’s over 11 million EVs – more than the entire world sold just two years earlier. EV adoption is also booming in emerging markets across Asia and Latin America, where sales shot up by more than 60% last year.

In the US, EV sales grew about 10% year over year, with electric vehicles now making up over 10% of all new car sales. Meanwhile, Europe’s EV sales hit a plateau. As government incentives started to taper off, the continent’s market share held steady at around 20%.

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“Our data shows that, despite significant uncertainties, electric cars remain on a strong growth trajectory globally,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “Sales continue to set new records, with major implications for the international auto industry.”

One of the main drivers is lower prices. The average cost of a battery electric car dropped in 2024, thanks to increased competition and falling battery prices. In China, two-thirds of EVs sold last year were cheaper than their gas-powered counterparts, and that’s without subsidies. But in markets like the US and Germany, EVs are still pricier up front: around 30% more in the US, and 20% more in Germany.

Still, EVs win when it comes to operating costs. Even if oil drops to $40 per barrel, it’s still about half as expensive to charge and run an EV at home in Europe than to drive a gas car.

The report also notes the growing role of Chinese EV exports. About 20% of all EVs sold globally last year were imported. China, which produces over 70% of the world’s EVs, exported 1.25 million of them in 2024. These exports have helped push down prices in emerging markets.

And it’s not just electric cars that are on the rise. Electric truck sales jumped 80% globally last year, now making up nearly 2% of the truck market. Most of that growth came from China, where some heavy-duty electric trucks are already cheaper to run than diesel, even if the upfront cost is higher.


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April’s global EV sales were up 29% compared to a year ago, once again led by China

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April's global EV sales were up 29% compared to a year ago, once again led by China

Global research firm Rho Motion has shared its monthly global EV sales report for April, which details continued long-term growth. While global EV sales are down compared to March 2025, the year-over-year tally remains strong, despite uncertainty amid the threat of tariffs and trade wars.

Since merging with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence last June, Rho Motion has become one of the go-to platforms for data surrounding critical mineral and energy transition supply chains. Its monthly updates on market intelligence, including prices and sales data, are must-see research every time they’re published.

This month’s report is no different.

In March 2025, we reported that EV sales worldwide had surged to 1.7 million units, bringing the total to 4.1 million units for Q1. March marked a 40% increase compared to February 2025, and a 29% increase year-over-year.

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For April 2025, Global EV sales stumbled slightly compared to the prior month, but held steady in YoY growth.

April global EV sales
Source: Benchmark/Rho Motion

April global EV sales fall MoM but rise YoY

According to Rho Motion’s latest report, global EV sales for April 2025 were 1.5 million units, bringing the year-to-date tally to 5.6 million NEVs (BEVs, PHEVs, and LDVs). April sales fell 12% compared to March 2025, but matched the previous month’s year-over-year growth at 29%.

Here’s how those 2025 global EV sales breakdown by region, compared to January to April 2024:

  • Global: 5.6 million, +29%
  • China: 3.3 million, +35%
  • Europe: 1.2 million, +25%
  • North America: 0.6 million, +5%
  • Rest of World: 0.5 million, +37%

As has been the case with every Rho Motion report we cover, China continues to lead the world in EV adoption despite sales dropping 9% month-over-month. Having recently visited the Shanghai Auto Show alongside some OEM visits in Hangzhou, I can see why adoption is moving more quickly. The number of available makes and models at affordable prices is incredible, and the technology you get for your money is downright staggering.

Even amongst ongoing talks of tariffs between global superpowers, including EV powerhouse China, EV sales continue to grow. Per Rho Motion data manager, Charles Lester:

Ongoing tariff negotiations are dominating talk in the electric vehicle industry but quietly, domestic manufacturers in China and the EU continue to perform well and grow market share. The EU is certainly the success story for EV sales in 2025 so far, with emissions targets lighting a fire under the industry to accelerate the switch to electric, they have grown the market by a quarter in the first third of the year. In China, that year on year sales increase is even greater at 35%, spurred on by the vehicle trade in scheme.

Europe, whose adoption numbers stumbled in 2024, has seen steady growth in EV adoption in 2025, landing second to China in sales growth last month (a 25% increase). This increase has been fueled by the increasing number of BEV and PHEV imports to the region from China from brands like BYD, ZEEKR, NIO, and XPeng.

North American sales have only grown by 5% in 2025, with Mexico leading the pack. The rest of the global EV market saw a 37% increase in sales, but those numbers only accounted for about half a million units.

Next time anyone tells you EV adoption is slowing down, you can just send them this data, because it is quite the contrary. Global EV sales continued to grow in April, and that trend should continue through 2025 and beyond.

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GOP tax bill helps its biggest donor Musk, but harms his company, Tesla

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GOP tax bill helps its biggest donor Musk, but harms his company, Tesla

Republicans announced a new tax plan today and it’s just about as bad for America as expected, taking money for healthcare, clean air and energy efficiency from American families and sending it to the ultra-wealthy instead.

You might think that this helps one of those ultra-wealthy, Elon Musk, who gave hundreds of millions of dollars to ani-EV candidates to help make this happen. But the main source of his wealth, Tesla, will be specifically harmed by rescission of EV credits – and its competitors largely won’t be.

Now that the republican party has unveiled its job-killing tax proposal, we know a little more about what’s in it.

Originally, it was thought by many that the proposal would completely kill all federal EV credits, with some estimating that the $7,500 credit would go away immediately (personally, I never thought it would be that stupid, but you never know with the republicans).

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But it’s clear they want to destroy the credit and make cars more expensive for Americans. After all, Donald Trump, while running for an office he remains Constitutionally barred from holding, asked oil companies for a billion-dollar bribe in exchange for ending the EV credit, a promise he has continued to say he will uphold as he squats in the aforementioned office.

And last week, House Speaker Mike Johnson said that the House is likely to end the credit.

It turns out the details are a little more nuanced than that, and that while the credit is ending, it will sunset a little later than many feared.

It’s likely that the credit will last through the end of this year – which makes sense, since that’s how tax changes often work. Then, at the end of the year, Inflation Reduction Act credits will largely disappear.

However, in the current draft of the bill, some automakers will retain access to some EV credits, for a time. This is due to an exception given for manufacturers who have not sold 200,000 vehicles between 2009 and 2025, a similar cap to the old EV tax credit that was first implemented in 2008, before Congress improved it and removed the cap in the Inflation Reduction Act.

So, smaller manufacturers will continue to have some support, while large manufacturers who have already sold plenty of cars will lose all of their credits.

A number of manufacturers have already reached the 200k EV cap, including Nissan, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai/Kia, GM, and of course, Tesla. Those manufacturers will lose access to credits.

But others who started late or have more niche offerings continue to be under the 200k cap. These include companies like Mercedes, Honda, Lucid, Mazda and Subaru.

Specifically, Rivian has been identified as one of the possible winners here, as the company has not yet sold 200,000 vehicles, though should be crossing that line sometime in the next couple years.

And finally, the real competition for Tesla, gas cars, will not lose anything from the rescission of EV credits. Those cars will continue selling, they’ll just have a $7,500 advantage relative to today – on top of their advantage of each gas car being allowed to choke the world with $20,000+ in unpaid pollution costs, which show up on everyone’s hospital bills and health insurance premiums.

So that brings up an interesting point: when Tesla and its bad CEO Elon Musk threw their support behind all of this, what did they think they would get out of it?

After all, Tesla wrongly said, at the behest of Musk and his tortured logic, that ending EV credits would somehow help it.

We called out that obvious incorrect statement at the time, saying that No, for crying out loud, killing EV subsidies will not help an EV company.

But now it turns out that the situation is even worse for Tesla, because not only does Tesla’s gas competition get to keep the credits, but many electric competitors will get to keep them for some time as well.

And don’t forget that this last quarter, government incentives were the only thing keeping Tesla from losing money. A regulatory environment that is more hostile to Tesla could turn black to red on the balance sheet, along with dropping sales and negative brand perception. Thank the bad CEO you voted to give $55B to for that loss, shareholders.

But the oil companies, another competitor for Tesla, will continue to benefit from roughly $760 billion in subsidy per year in the US alone, in terms of the health and environmental costs they impose on society and do not pay for.

If that subsidy was ended alongside the $7,500 EV credit, then EVs would indeed come out on top. But instead of ending those massive subsidies to fossil fuels, republicans have proposed to increase them, by cutting down enforcement and loosening pollution limits, both through this tax bill and through other agency actions and proposals.

Further, the tax proposal unveiled today sunsets credits for many other products that Tesla sells. There are solar and home energy efficiency credits which Tesla takes advantage of through its Energy division, which sells solar and home battery systems to homeowners. These can be worth tens of thousands of dollars per installation, and those will go away if this proposal goes through.

So in the end, Tesla loses access to credits both on its cars and its Energy division, while its competitors get an even more beneficial regulatory environment to continue polluting. And even its electric competitors get a temporary leg up for the time being.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk gets his part of the $4.5 trillion in tax cuts that go directly to wealthy elites. So at least his pocketbook will look slightly better for a time, even though the company that has been responsible for filling it it will fall further due to less attractive product pricing and through his own association, which has driven protests against the companyembarrassed owners and pushed many customers away.

So, to those of you who wanted us to “trust the plan” – how, exactly, is this beneficial to Tesla, again?


Among the proposed cuts is the rooftop solar credit. That means you could have only until the end of this year to install rooftop solar on your home, before republicans raise the cost of doing so by an average of ~$10,000. So if you want to go solar, get started now, because these things take time and the system needs to be active before you file for the credit.

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