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Aerial view of the LNG storage and vaporization vessel “Höegh Esperanza” at the Wilhelmshaven LNG terminal.

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Energy analysts are warning of more gas market volatility and higher prices as Europe races to prepare for another winter heating season.

European gas markets have been constantly fluctuating in recent months, owing to extreme heat, maintenance at gas plants and, most recently, industrial action at major liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Australia.

Workers at U.S. energy giant Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone natural gas projects in Western Australia went on strike last week, after a protracted dispute over pay and job security. Work stoppages of up to 11 hours are scheduled to continue through to Thursday, at which point the action is poised to ramp up to a total strike of two weeks.

At present, no further talks are scheduled to resolve the dispute, exacerbating fears that a prolonged halt to production would squeeze global supplies.

Australia is a major player in the global LNG market — and even though most of its exports are destined for Japan, China and South Korea, disruption from the strikes is likely to result in Asia and Europe competing for LNG from other suppliers.

Gas markets are becoming riskier — gas and LNG prices are increasingly volatile and greatly affected by global factors.

Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz

Energy analyst at IEEFA

The front-month gas price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, traded 1.4% higher on Tuesday morning at 36.3 euros ($38.91) per megawatt hour. The TTF contract rose to around 43 euros last month amid fears of strike action.

“The fear of an unbalanced gas supply and demand seesaw has dominated markets,” Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a U.S.-based think tank, said in a research note.

She said the combination of lower gas consumption and Europe filling up its storage facilities ahead of schedule had helped to prevent gas prices from skyrocketing to last summer’s extraordinary peak of 340 euros.

However, given the uncertainty over how the situation in Australia will unfold, Jaller-Makarewicz said Europe should brace itself for more volatility and an increase in prices.

“Gas markets are becoming riskier — gas and LNG prices are increasingly volatile and greatly affected by global factors,” Jaller-Makarewicz said.

“The uncertainty of future events that could affect gas supply makes it extremely difficult to predict how the supply and demand could be balanced and how much prices could escalate by. As seen in last year’s events in Europe, the only way that importing countries can mitigate that risk is by reducing their internal consumption,” she added.

‘Very volatile’

The EU reached its target of filling gas storage facilities to a 90% capacity roughly 2 1/2 months ahead of its Nov. 1 deadline. It leaves the bloc in a relatively strong position to cope with the demands of the forthcoming winter heating season.

The latest data compiled by industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe shows that the EU’s overall storage levels are at an average of nearly 94% full.

The International Energy Agency, however, has warned that even full storage sites are “no guarantee” against market conditions through winter.

“Our simulations show that a cold winter, together with a full halt of Russian piped gas supplies to the European Union starting from 1 October 2023, could easily renew price volatility and market tensions,” the global energy watchdog said in its annual gas market report, published July 17.

Concerns about China's demand for oil have almost become 'a bit of a cliche': JPMorgan strategist

The IEA’s warning comes as the 27-nation bloc continues to wean itself off Russian fossil fuel exports after the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Analysts at political consultancy Eurasia Group fear that “real disruptions” to European markets are possible, including Norwegian winter storm outages and a cut of the remaining Russian gas to Europe.

Christyan Malek, global head of energy strategy and head of EMEA oil and gas equity research at JPMorgan, said the situation in gas markets is “very volatile” and therefore tough to predict.

Malek said European gas markets appear to be pricing in both the buffer of Europe hitting its gas storage target ahead of schedule, and the risk that a particularly cold winter could lead to a “massive upswing” in price by year-end.

“As a house, we’re relatively bearish on gas prices,” Malek told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Monday.

“We’re at 95% storage by the end of the year, we’re 50% storage by March next year. What does that mean? It means that we’ve got a pretty good buffer,” Malek said, referring to Europe’s filling of its gas storage facilities.

“Now, if it gets really cold in winter … we do have a problem,” he added.

A new floating storage and regasification unit considered crucial to Italy’s energy independence arrived in Tuscany on March 19, 2023. The Golar Tundra project is a key part of Italy’s plan to reduce its reliance on Russian gas following the invasion of Ukraine.

Filippo Monteforte | Afp | Getty Images

While analysts said volatile market conditions are likely to keep traders feeling anxious, some believe the strikes in Australia are the only thing likely to keep prices buoyant in the months ahead.

Kaushal Ramesh, an analyst at Oslo-based Rystad Energy, said volatility returned to gas markets following the start of industrial action at major gas facilities in Australia.

“However, the potential impact of the strikes is likely the only bullish element in the near-term market, given we have now entered the pre-winter shoulder season and other indicators are bearish in both Europe and Asia,” Ramesh said in a research note published Monday.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 disappoints with hallucinations, brake stabbing, and speeding

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 disappoints with hallucinations, brake stabbing, and speeding

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) v14, its first major update in a year, disappoints as data points to a lower increase in miles between disengagements than expected.

The system also features new hallucinations, brake stabbing, and excessive speeding.

Earlier this month, Tesla began rolling out its Full Self-Driving (FSD) v14 software update to some customers.

The update has been highly anticipated for several reasons.

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First off, it has been a year since Tesla released any significant FSD update to customers, as it focused on its internal robotaxi fleet in Austin. The update is believed to feature improvements developed through Tesla’s robotaxi fleet, which requires supervising like its consumer FSD.

Secondly, CEO Elon Musk has claimed that Tesla still plans for “Supervised Full Self-Driving” to become unsupervised by the end of the year in consumer vehicles. For that to happen, we needed to see a massive improvement from v13 to v14.

As I previously reported, I anticipated an improvement in miles between critical disengagements from ~400 miles in v13 to ~800 to 1,200 miles in v14. It would be a significant improvement, but still way short of what’s needed to make FSD unsupervised.

Tesla notoriously doesn’t release any data about its FSD program. Musk has literally told people to rely on anecdotal experiences posted on social media to gauge progress.

Fortunately, there’s a crowdsourced dataset that gives us some data to track progress with miles between critical disengagement. It’s far from perfect, but it is literally the best data available, and Musk himself has shared the dataset in the past – albeit while misrepresenting it.

In the last week, Tesla started pushing the FSD v14 update (now v14.1.4) to more owners – resulting in more crowdsourced data and anecdotal evidence.

With now over 4,000 miles of FSD v14 data, miles between critical disengagement sits about 732 miles – below the lower end of our expectations:

Tesla would need to be closer to 10,000 miles between critical disengagements to allow unsupervised operation, and even then, it would likely be in geo-fenced areas with speed limitations.

This is unlikely to happen by the end of the year, as Musk predicted, as FSD v14 appears to have some significant issues still.

First off, many FSD v14 drivers are reporting that the update is having problems with hallucinations where the car decides to stop on the side of the road seemingly randomly:

It does seem like FSD v14 sometimes misinterprets other vehicles’ turn signals as emergency vehicle lights and pulls over.

In some cases, FSD v14 has been known to completely disable FSD features inside vehicles:

Many FSD v14 drivers have also reported an increase in “brake stabbing”, where the vehicle seems to hesitate and frantically applies the brakes and releases them – resulting in a stabbing motion.

As previously reported, Tesla also brought back its ‘Mad Max’ mode in FSD v14, which allows for driving exceedingly over the speed limit.

Electrek’s Take

Now, I don’t want to hear anything about my use of anecdotal evidence and crowdsourced data. That’s literally the best data available for FSD.

Unlike virtually all other companies developing self-driving technology, Tesla refuses to release any.

If it were to release some data, I’d be happy to use it.

One thing is clear from v14 so far: unsupervised FSD in consumer vehicles is not happening in any meaningful way this year.

I expect significant improvements in upcoming FSD v14 point updates. Maybe enough to get it to my previous expectations of ~800 to 1,200 miles between disengagements, but that’s about it.

Finally, while I generally don’t count on NHTSA to enforce any rule in any significant way when it comes to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” effort, I think they might actually do something about “Mad Max.”

This video on Instagram has 4.5 million views, and it shows extremely dangerous driving behavior at up to 90 mph (145 km/h)

I think the authorities will have to intervene here, because it makes no sense for an unproven autonomous driving system to be able to operate under those parameters.

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The Toyota Corolla EV is bringing a sharp new look, but that’s just the start [Images]

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The Toyota Corolla EV is bringing a sharp new look, but that's just the start [Images]

Toyota’s best-selling car is finally going electric. The Corolla EV looks more like a Porsche or BMW than the Toyota vehicles on the road today, but that’s just the start.

The Toyota Corolla is evolving into a rad-looking EV

After revealing the Corolla Concept for the first time at the Japan Mobility Show on Tuesday, Toyota’s CEO, Koji Sato, said the compact car has always been “a car for everyone.”

Since it hit the market over 50 years ago, Toyota has sold well over 50 million Corollas. The Corolla even surpassed the VW Beetle in the 90s to become the world’s best-selling vehicle. Like the Prius, Toyota’s compact car lured in buyers with an affordable price and a reputation as a reliable daily driver.

Although it’s still a top-seller, the Corolla has lost some of its charm as more advanced, stylish, and efficient electric cars hit the market.

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Toyota looks to change that with a drastic overhaul that takes the Corolla to the next level. To stay relevant, Sato asked the crowd at the event, “How should the Corolla evolve?”

Toyota-Corolla-EV-reveal
Toyota CEO Koji Sato reveals the Corolla Concept at the Japan Mobility Show (Source: Toyota)

We all want to drive a car that looks cool, but there’s much more to it nowadays. Buyers are increasingly seeking more efficient vehicles with the latest software, connectivity technology, and other features.

“Whether it’s a battery EV, plug-in hybrid, hybrid, or internal combustion engine vehicle―whatever the power source―let’s make good-looking cars that everyone will want to drive!” Toyota’s CEO said, adding the car is “packed with inventions aimed at making that a reality.”

Although Toyota didn’t confirm the concept was headed for production, the next-gen Corolla is expected to arrive with a similar style.

The concept still features Toyota’s newest design elements, like the “hammerhead” front end, but with a bit more of a futuristic feel.

You can barely tell the concept is a Corolla, aside from the massive COROLLA badging on the rear. Toyota didn’t reveal any powertrain details, but the charge port and closed-off grille suggest it’s an EV.

The next-gen Toyota Corolla is expected to be offered as an EV, a plug-in hybrid, a hybrid, and, likely, still an ICE variant.

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Uber chooses first market to deploy its Lucid Gravity robotaxis featuring Nuro Driver

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Uber chooses first market to deploy its Lucid Gravity robotaxis featuring Nuro Driver

Three months after Uber, Lucid Motors, and Nuro announced a partnership that would enable Gravity SUV robotaxis, the rideshare network has shared where the public will first be able to hail one. Spoiler alert, it’s easy to guess if you give it half a thought.

As we reported in July, Uber Technologies committed to a $300 million investment in Lucid Group (parent company of American EV automaker Lucid Motors), to deploy at least 20,000 Lucid vehicles as robotaxis over the next six years.

Those Lucid vehicles, which will consist of the automaker’s flagship Gravity SUV to begin, will hit public roads equipped with a Level 4 autonomous system called Nuro Driver. Nuro, the third partner in this equation, is a robotics company specializing in zero-occupant delivery vehicles, which garnered an existing partnership with Uber Eats as well as a “hefty” (yet undisclosed) investment from Uber Technologies.

Last month, Lucid delivered its first Gravity SUV to Nuro to begin the retrofitting process of the Nuro Driver system to support Uber’s hopes for a luxe robotaxi fleet. While the partners continue to work toward building an exciting new fleet of Lucid Gravity Robotaxis, Uber has shared the location where they will first go into service… Casper, Wyoming.

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Just kidding!

It’s the San Francisco Bay Area, of course.

Lucid-first-EV-Uber
Lucid Gravity SUV fitted with Nuro’s self-driving tech (Source: Lucid)

Uber to deploy Lucid Gravity EVs in Bay Area in 2026

Today’s update from Uber expands upon the ongoing partnership with Lucid Group and Nuro. According to the companies, the San Francisco Bay Area will be the first market where riders will see this next-generation autonomous robotaxi program in operation. That milestone is expected sometime in 2026.

Uber has shared that it has been updating policymakers and regulators at every level on the progress of its exclusive Lucid Robotaxis and continues to meet the operational requirements. Notably, Uber has shared that on-road development with the Lucid Gravity robotaxi engineering fleet is already underway in the Bay Area.

Furthermore, Nuro and Lucid intend to be operating over 100 Gravity robotaxis as part of the test fleet “in the coming months.” Lucid interim CEO, Marc Winterhoff, spoke about today’s announcement:

Lucid has always celebrated its California roots, and we’re thrilled to make the San Francisco Bay Area the first market for our new robotaxi on the Uber platform, powered by the Nuro Driver. Beginning next year, riders will experience a level of convenience, safety, and comfort unlike anything else on the road. We can’t wait to bring this service to life and expand it to communities across the country.

To build this fleet of Uber-exclusive robotaxis, the required hardware will be integrated into Lucid Gravity SUVS while they are still on Lucid’s assembly line in Arizona. Those builds will then be integrated with Nuro’s proprietary software when Uber officially commissions them.

All eyes on 2026 as we now know that residents around the Bay Area will be able to hail a driverless Lucid Gravity through the Uber platform. I’m very much looking forward to seeing this fleet in action.

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