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Aerial view of the LNG storage and vaporization vessel “Höegh Esperanza” at the Wilhelmshaven LNG terminal.

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Energy analysts are warning of more gas market volatility and higher prices as Europe races to prepare for another winter heating season.

European gas markets have been constantly fluctuating in recent months, owing to extreme heat, maintenance at gas plants and, most recently, industrial action at major liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Australia.

Workers at U.S. energy giant Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone natural gas projects in Western Australia went on strike last week, after a protracted dispute over pay and job security. Work stoppages of up to 11 hours are scheduled to continue through to Thursday, at which point the action is poised to ramp up to a total strike of two weeks.

At present, no further talks are scheduled to resolve the dispute, exacerbating fears that a prolonged halt to production would squeeze global supplies.

Australia is a major player in the global LNG market — and even though most of its exports are destined for Japan, China and South Korea, disruption from the strikes is likely to result in Asia and Europe competing for LNG from other suppliers.

Gas markets are becoming riskier — gas and LNG prices are increasingly volatile and greatly affected by global factors.

Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz

Energy analyst at IEEFA

The front-month gas price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, traded 1.4% higher on Tuesday morning at 36.3 euros ($38.91) per megawatt hour. The TTF contract rose to around 43 euros last month amid fears of strike action.

“The fear of an unbalanced gas supply and demand seesaw has dominated markets,” Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a U.S.-based think tank, said in a research note.

She said the combination of lower gas consumption and Europe filling up its storage facilities ahead of schedule had helped to prevent gas prices from skyrocketing to last summer’s extraordinary peak of 340 euros.

However, given the uncertainty over how the situation in Australia will unfold, Jaller-Makarewicz said Europe should brace itself for more volatility and an increase in prices.

“Gas markets are becoming riskier — gas and LNG prices are increasingly volatile and greatly affected by global factors,” Jaller-Makarewicz said.

“The uncertainty of future events that could affect gas supply makes it extremely difficult to predict how the supply and demand could be balanced and how much prices could escalate by. As seen in last year’s events in Europe, the only way that importing countries can mitigate that risk is by reducing their internal consumption,” she added.

‘Very volatile’

The EU reached its target of filling gas storage facilities to a 90% capacity roughly 2 1/2 months ahead of its Nov. 1 deadline. It leaves the bloc in a relatively strong position to cope with the demands of the forthcoming winter heating season.

The latest data compiled by industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe shows that the EU’s overall storage levels are at an average of nearly 94% full.

The International Energy Agency, however, has warned that even full storage sites are “no guarantee” against market conditions through winter.

“Our simulations show that a cold winter, together with a full halt of Russian piped gas supplies to the European Union starting from 1 October 2023, could easily renew price volatility and market tensions,” the global energy watchdog said in its annual gas market report, published July 17.

Concerns about China's demand for oil have almost become 'a bit of a cliche': JPMorgan strategist

The IEA’s warning comes as the 27-nation bloc continues to wean itself off Russian fossil fuel exports after the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Analysts at political consultancy Eurasia Group fear that “real disruptions” to European markets are possible, including Norwegian winter storm outages and a cut of the remaining Russian gas to Europe.

Christyan Malek, global head of energy strategy and head of EMEA oil and gas equity research at JPMorgan, said the situation in gas markets is “very volatile” and therefore tough to predict.

Malek said European gas markets appear to be pricing in both the buffer of Europe hitting its gas storage target ahead of schedule, and the risk that a particularly cold winter could lead to a “massive upswing” in price by year-end.

“As a house, we’re relatively bearish on gas prices,” Malek told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Monday.

“We’re at 95% storage by the end of the year, we’re 50% storage by March next year. What does that mean? It means that we’ve got a pretty good buffer,” Malek said, referring to Europe’s filling of its gas storage facilities.

“Now, if it gets really cold in winter … we do have a problem,” he added.

A new floating storage and regasification unit considered crucial to Italy’s energy independence arrived in Tuscany on March 19, 2023. The Golar Tundra project is a key part of Italy’s plan to reduce its reliance on Russian gas following the invasion of Ukraine.

Filippo Monteforte | Afp | Getty Images

While analysts said volatile market conditions are likely to keep traders feeling anxious, some believe the strikes in Australia are the only thing likely to keep prices buoyant in the months ahead.

Kaushal Ramesh, an analyst at Oslo-based Rystad Energy, said volatility returned to gas markets following the start of industrial action at major gas facilities in Australia.

“However, the potential impact of the strikes is likely the only bullish element in the near-term market, given we have now entered the pre-winter shoulder season and other indicators are bearish in both Europe and Asia,” Ramesh said in a research note published Monday.

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Oil prices bounce back as investors hope U.S. inventory data will point to stronger summer fuel demand

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Oil prices bounce back as investors hope U.S. inventory data will point to stronger summer fuel demand

Energy stocks are only real hedge in an oil shock crisis: DataTrek Research's Nick Colas

Crude oil futures rose Wednesday as investors wait for the latest U.S. inventory data for indications of how gasoline demand is holding up as summer.

Oil prices pulled back Tuesday as the recent rally paused, but West Texas Intermediate and Brent are ahead 5.9% and 4.9% for the month as analysts expect summer fuel demand to pick up after a soft start to the season.

Here are today’s energy prices:

  • West Texas Intermediate August contract: $81.53 per barrel, up 70 cents, or 0.87%. Year to date, U.S. oil has gained 13.8%.
  • Brent August contract: $85.66 per barrel, up 65 cents, or 0.76%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 11.2%.
  • RBOB Gasoline July contract: $2.53 per gallon, up 0.76%. Year to date, gasoline has gained 20.5%.
  • Natural Gas July contract: $2.71 per gallon, down 1.74%. Year to date, gas is ahead 7.7%.

Traders are waiting for confirmation that demand is firming from the latest U.S. oil and gasoline inventory data, which the Department of Energy will release at 10:30 am.

“The ubiquitous view is that demand will increase during the summer and with OPEC+ cuts fully in place until October global and OECD stocks ought to deplete,” John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a Wednesday note.

“Thus, convincing stock draws in the US would go a long way to bolster this optimism,” Evans said.

Analysts are expecting that U.S .oil and gas inventories fell by 2.9 million barrels and 1 million barrels, respectively, last week.

Traders are also monitoring the situation on the Israel-Lebanon border. Israel and the Iran-backed militia group Hezbollah have threatened war recently, after trading fire across the border for months.

There are fears an Israeli offensive in Lebanon could trigger a direct confrontation with OPEC member Iran, potentially jeopardizing crude oil supplies.

Don’t miss these energy exclusives from CNBC PRO:

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Electrogenic brings the DeLorean DMC-12 Back to the Future with a ‘drop-in’ EV conversion kit

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Electrogenic brings the DeLorean DMC-12 Back to the Future with a 'drop-in' EV conversion kit

Where BEV conversions are going, we don’t need roads… Actually, we still very much need roads, but we no longer need to look at the original DeLorean DMC-12, considered by many as a design far ahead of its time, as a dated combustion classic. The EV conversion experts at Electrogenic have introduced a new “plug and play” kit that can bring any sample of the original DeLorean into the future of electric mobility. It still can’t actually travel through time, though…

If you haven’t heard of UK-based EV conversion specialist Electrogenic yet, its latest addition to the portfolio will help you remember the name. Since being founded in 2018, the company has not only made it possible to electrify several classic cars but continues to do so using clever designs that maintain the integrity of the original vehicles with subtle touches to support their new all-electric powertrains.

The company uses specialized “drop-in” kits that present a “plug and play” solution for a growing lineup of notable models, including Land Rovers, classic Porsche 911s, and a 1960s Jaguar E-Type. Last summer, we covered Electrogenic’s most complex EV conversion to date – a 1929 Rolls-Royce Phantom II commissioned by Aquaman himself, Jason Mamoa.

For its EV conversion next project, Electrogenic has once again tied itself to Hollywood and has gone (slightly) younger in the classic DeLorean it has chosen to electrify. The DMC-12 was the flagship model of DeLorean Motor Company that held a brief moment in the sun during the 1980s thanks to its gull-wing doors and stainless steel exterior (you’re welcome, Cybertruck).

The original rear-engine vehicle served as a lesson in design by Giorgetto Giugiaro… and a lesson in how not to run an automotive company by John DeLorean. Still, the DMC-12 remains a cult classic in pop culture thanks to its starring role in the Back to the Future franchise.

The original iteration of DeLorean Motor Company only lasted seven years, but it was revived as an all-electric brand in 2022. However, DeLorean 2.0 also shuttered its headquarters a year later. While we aren’t likely to see a new DeLorean EV model on roads any time soon, Electrogenic has introduced an EV conversion kit to electrify the original.

The famed DeLorean gains an EV conversion kit

Great Scott! The DeLorean DMC-12 can now be retrofitted with an EV conversion kit announced by Electrogenic, bringing it into the 21st Century without any risk of going back in time and getting hit on by your mom. Phew.

The Electrogenic team said it exhaustively developed this new “drop-in” EV conversion package for the 1980s DeLorean, complete with its own proprietary EV powertrain technology that is “future-proof” and entirely reversible.

The conversion features 43 kWh of OEM-grade batteries positioned in place of the fuel tank beneath the front luggage compartment and above the rear motor. Thanks to its clever battery packaging, Electrogenic can keep the original structure intact without cutting anything.

It may not leave a trail of flames when it accelerates like it did on the big screen, but future drivers of the “plug and play” DeLoreans can take advantage of 160 kW of power and 310 Nm (~229 lb-ft) of torque. Despite the EV conversion weighing about 40 kg (88 lbs) more than the original V6 DeLorean, its all-electric powertrain halves its 0-60 mph acceleration from over ten seconds to less than five.

Other features include regenerative braking, range-saving Eco mode, and a Sport Mode for maximum power. Inside, you can add several other new features, such as Apple Car Play (thank you), enhanced air conditioning, and a bespoke virtual dashboard. The DeLorean DMC-12 is also the first Electrogenic EV conversion to feature “Launch Control” for sprints off the line at a red light… or if you want to try to bend space and time.

As with all Electrogenic EV conversion kits, the DeLorean offers CCS fast charging that can replenish in one hour, as well as vehicle-to-load (V2L) capabilities – 3kW of 240V power in case you want to set up a public screening of Back to the Future in a JCPenney parking lot somewhere.

Due to the limits in battery storage within the vehicle’s existing chassis, Electrogenic’s EV conversion of the DeLorean only offers 150+ miles of all-electric range, but that’s more than enough to cruise around and show it off. The DMC-12 has always been a head-turner, and BEV capabilities only add to its lore. Electrogenic CEO Steve Drummond shared a similar sentiment:

We’re delighted with the results of our ‘plug and play’ DeLorean EV conversion package; it transforms the DMC-12 from an American cruiser into a true sports car, with performance that perfectly matches its timeless space-age visuals. When John DeLorean set out to make the DMC-12 over forty years ago, he was determined to create a sports car that was sustainable and would stand the test of time. An EV conversion therefore makes total sense and feels in keeping with the ethos of the original project. I can also attest that the car’s original, Lotus-engineered, suspension is more than up to the task of handling the new-found torque; the car is fabulous to drive.

During the DeLorean’s road testing and calibration program for over the past few months, our engineering team has been blown away by the response it gets from the public; it generates interest and excitement like nothing else. You’re constantly being stopped by DeLorean fans asking for pictures or wanting to take a closer look at the car.

The DeLorean DMC-12 EV conversion kit is now available for sale through Electrogenic’s vetted global installer network, which includes numerous partners in the United States. 

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Tern’s new Quick Haul Long electric cargo bike shows it’s not the size that matters

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Tern's new Quick Haul Long electric cargo bike shows it's not the size that matters

Tern, one of the leading innovators in cargo electric bike design, has just announced its newest model. Get ready to stretch, because here comes the Quick Haul Long.

Tern’s electric cargo bikes have always been known for two things: high-quality heavy-hauling designs and relatively smaller footprints, at least as far as cargo e-bikes go. Years ago, the company basically invented the compact cargo e-bike category.

Tern’s engineers have long been offering just as much — or more — cargo hauling abilities in e-bikes that don’t take up as much space in riders’ garages or living rooms. Look no further than the vertical parking feature built into their rear racks that allows the bikes to take up the same amount of floor space as a coat rack.

Now, with the new Tern Quick Haul Long, the company is finally filling out in the length department with its lower cost model, while still incorporating more of the size and capabilities of its longer GSD model.

The GSD has long been Tern’s flagship longer cargo e-bike, but it also comes with a flagship price, starting at around $4,500 and increasing quickly from there for the even higher-end components. The Quick Haul, on the other hand, is the brand’s smaller and more budget-friendly cargo offering. Now Tern is combining the two, bringing GSD features to the Quick Haul, but leaving the higher price in the dust.

Starting at US $3,799, The Quick Haul Long is still compact by modern cargo e-bike standards, but incorporates more of the GSD’s DNA for even more capability. It’s also now one of the most affordable premium cargo e-bikes on the market available from the higher-tier brands.

“The compact cargo bike category came about when we launched the GSD in 2018,” explained Josh Hon, Tern Team Captain. “Customers loved how such a small little bike could handle so many tasks typically done by car. Since then, we’ve learned a lot about how to make cargo bikes even better, and we applied those insights to the Quick Haul Long. The bike retains the GSD’s core features but it comes at a more accessible price, without compromising safety or reliability.”

The Quick Haul Long sticks with Tern’s typical 20″ wheels, keeping it the same length as a typical larger wheel city bike. However, its long rack and 190 kg (419 lb) weight rating means it can handle significantly more utility tasks. Just that rear rack alone is rated for 90 kg (200 lb), and also has a built-in tow mount for pulling trailers or towing other bikes. Carrying two kids on the rear rack is a breeze, and the bike’s lower center of gravity and stiff frame are optimized for stable, smooth riding.

Even the front cargo mount, which supports an optional front rack or basket, is rated for 20 kg (44 lb). Anyone who has ever loaded up the front of their bike in addition to the rear will know that’s a serious amount of weight, helping to balance out a load and provide more mounting options.

The bike is said to fit riders from 5’1″ to 6’1″, or 155 to 185 cm. The low step-through frame is designed to be easy to mount, as well as easy to hop forward on, especially when you’ve got a couple of wiggling kids on the rear rack and need some extra stability at a red light. For more stability when parked, the bike features one of the strongest dual kickstands I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a lot of kickstands. I’ve had a motorcycle or two that I wish Tern had built the kickstand for.

Powering the bike is Bosch’s Cargo Line mid-drive motor, meaning you get the backing of the leading German drive maker as well as all of the warranty and service/support that comes with it.

The bike also features Bosch’s batteries with multiple size options, letting riders dial in the capacity and range they need (and that fits their budget).

And while Tern’s heritage comes from the bike experts of Taiwan, you’d almost think they were a German company based on how much emphasis they put into the engineering and safety certifications on their bikes, including testing to the new DIN79010 standard at the bike’s max capacity of 190 kg (419 lb).

As Hon continued, “The cargo bike segment has exploded in popularity in recent years, with just about every brand introducing their version of a ‘cargo bike.’ But unfortunately, testing and safety standards haven’t kept pace. Germany has recently published the first national testing standard for cargo bikes – DIN79010. We believe that any cargo bike claiming a MGVW over 120 kg should be tested to the DIN 79010 standard—but very few have been so far.”

Electrek’s Take

This definitely feels like Tern’s shot across the bow of budget brands with their popular low-cost cargo e-bike models. There’s no way Tern can compete directly with a $1,500 cargo e-bike, but it can offer significantly better quality components for a compelling price, at least compared to all the $6,000 cargo e-bikes out there.

For those who are trying to decide whether to save money on a budget brand or upgrade to a premium model, this is about the best price you’ll find for a premium electric cargo bike.

I still believe that budget cargo e-bikes have their place, and to be fair, I got my sister one for her family. But we can’t kid ourselves and pretend like there isn’t a quality difference. For someone actually replacing a car and relying on their e-bike daily, that quality difference translates into everyday reliability and the peace of mind of knowing that the bike is designed to last for years, not for a year.

Of course, the fact that the bike runs a Bosch motor is always going to be a double-edged sword in the US. Bosch systems are famously pedal-assist only, meaning no throttles. The Bosch name carries a lot of weight in Europe, but Americans seem to opt for throttle-enable electric bikes nine times out of ten, so it’s an uphill pedal to try and sell non-throttle e-bikes in the States. In Europe though, I can see this thing crushing the pricier alternatives from German and British e-bike brands.

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