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The pensions triple lock is one of those policies that – despite only being introduced in 2010 – now feels so deep-rooted that no party can challenge it.

Turn the clock back to the coalition government: conscious of pensioner poverty and the state pension having fallen in real terms over many years, they came up with a guarantee.

Every year it would be either increased in line with prices (CPI inflation), to match average wages, or by 2.5% – whichever was the highest.

This was the post-financial crash era of rock-bottom interest rates and low inflation. Now all that has changed.

The state pension is likely to rise by 8.5% after April, in line with the latest earnings data – including bonuses.

This eclipses inflation which is running at around 7% and forecast to fall.

The average weekly state pension would rise from £203.85 to £221.20 a week.

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Conservative ministers have stuck to the policy in every election manifesto, not least because pensioners turn out to vote.

The British Election Study team in 2018 found that turnout by age ranged from 40% to 50% among the youngest voters and over 80% for the oldest – although it varies by constituency.

The former coalition pensions minister Steve Webb has pointed out that the increase next year will take half a million pensioners over the income tax threshold – giving the Treasury a windfall.

Rishi Sunak, asked on his trip to the G20 about this issue, did not commit to keeping it after the election; although media coverage of this saw Number 10 commit to the policy.

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The problem is that it is becoming increasingly unaffordable as working-age people will have to bear the cost of an ageing population’s benefits on their taxes.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said that an additional £11bn a year is spent on the state pension due to the triple lock – compared with if it had been raised by either inflation or earnings.

By 2050, they reckon this could be £45bn.

Uncertainty around the triple lock makes it hard for governments to budget exactly how much it will cost in future.

In 2022, it was suspended for one year, for the first time, to take out earnings, because of the distorting effect of people coming back to work after the pandemic.

But despite speculation this might be the moment to reevaluate it, the lock was reinstated for this year with a 10.1% rise in line with inflation the previous September.

Charities for the elderly insist it must stay, saying pensioners on fixed incomes, who have paid taxes all their lives, rely on it to afford their food and energy bills.

And polling across different age groups consistently shows support for it.

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MPs privately admit the need for change

Today the former Tory leader William Hague has waded in on the future of the triple lock.

He said it’s “ultimately unsustainable” and must be looked at again on a cross-party basis, with a future date set to drop the policy.

Describing it in The Times as “a very fierce sleeping dog that hates anyone to tread on its paws” he said younger people faced higher living costs than for decades.

He said one option was to follow the Conservatives’ example in the 1990s, when they gave 15 years’ notice that the women’s pension age would rise in stages from 2010 to 2020 – and Labour went along with it.

MPs across parties privately admit the pension system needs reform.

A senior Tory backbencher said ditching the lock before an election would be an “election killer” and it could only be done a long way into the future with a royal commission to look into it first.

Labour has left some wriggle room too, with the party saying it will set out its policies at the election, but plans to “hold the government’s feet to the fire” on keeping it in this parliament.

The risk in keeping it is that future chancellors bring forward increases in the pension age to save money.

It will reach 67 by 2028 and a decision on when to increase it to 68 has been put on hold.

The problem is there is never a good time for politicians to take the triple lock out of the in-tray.

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Why Boris’s best mate is off to Reform

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Why Boris's best mate is off to Reform

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈       

Former Conservative chairman and friend of Boris Johnson – Sir Jake Berry – is defecting to Reform UK, causing more problems for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.

On today’s episode, Sky News’ Sam Coates and Politico’s Anne McElvoy discuss if his defection will divide parts of Reform policy.

Elsewhere, the Anglo-French summit gets under way, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hoping to announce a migration deal with French President Emmanuel Macron to deter small boat crossings.

Plus, chatter around Whitehall that No10 are considering a pre-summer reshuffle, but will it have any value?

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Australia to test CBDCs, stablecoins in next stage of crypto play

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Australia to test CBDCs, stablecoins in next stage of crypto play

Australia to test CBDCs, stablecoins in next stage of crypto play

The trial is part of Project Acacia, an initiative from the RBA exploring how digital money and tokenization could support financial markets in Australia.

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Starmer and Macron agree need for ‘new deterrent’ to stop small boat crossings

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Starmer and Macron agree need for 'new deterrent' to stop small boat crossings

Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have agreed the need for a “new deterrent” to deter small boats crossings in the Channel, Downing Street has said.

The prime minister met Mr Macron this afternoon as part of the French president’s state visit to the UK, which began on Tuesday.

High up the agenda for the two leaders is the need to tackle small boat crossings in the Channel, which Mr Macron said yesterday was a “burden” for both the UK and France.

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The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.

Sir Keir is hoping he can reach a deal for a one-in one-out return treaty with France, ahead of the UK-France summit on Thursday, which will involve ministerial teams from both nations.

The deal would see those crossing the Channel illegally sent back to France in exchange for Britain taking in any asylum seeker with a family connection in the UK.

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However, it is understood the deal is still in the balance, with some EU countries unhappy about France and the UK agreeing on a bilateral deal.

French newspaper Le Monde reports that up to 50 small boat migrants could be sent back to France each week, starting from August, as part of an agreement between Sir Keir and Mr Macron.

A statement from Downing Street said: “The prime minister met the French President Emmanuel Macron in Downing Street this afternoon.

“They reflected on the state visit of the president so far, agreeing that it had been an important representation of the deep ties between our two countries.

“Moving on to discuss joint working, they shared their desire to deepen our partnership further – from joint leadership in support of Ukraine to strengthening our defence collaboration and increasing bilateral trade and investment.”

It added: “The leaders agreed tackling the threat of irregular migration and small boat crossings is a shared priority that requires shared solutions.

“The prime minister spoke of his government’s toughening of the system in the past year to ensure rules are respected and enforced, including a massive surge in illegal working arrests to end the false promise of jobs that are used to sell spaces on boats.

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“The two leaders agreed on the need to go further and make progress on new and innovative solutions, including a new deterrent to break the business model of these gangs.”

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, seized on the statement to criticise Labour for scrapping the Conservatives’ Rwanda plan, which the Tories claim would have sent asylum seekers “entering the UK illegally” to Rwanda.

He said in an online post: “We had a deterrent ready to go, where every single illegal immigrant arriving over the Channel would be sent to Rwanda.

“But Starmer cancelled this before it had a chance to start.

“Now, a year later, he’s realised he made a massive mistake. That’s why numbers have surged and this year so far has been the worst in history for illegal channel crossings.

“Starmer is weak and incompetent and he’s lost control of our borders.”

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