Pariah Kim Jong Un has little to lose in his meeting with Putin – but a lot to gain
A rare summit between reclusive North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin underlines a growing pariah alliance that could impact global security.
Moscow, locked in a bloody war of attrition with Ukraine and squeezed by an unprecedented array of Western sanctions, is desperate to secure large quantities of munitions, including artillery shells and bullets, to fire at Ukrainian lines.
Such an arsenal of weaponry is one of the few things Pyongyang can provide.
In return, the isolated state, also heavily sanctioned and intent on developing ever-more technologically advanced missiles, will be seeking promises of support to feed its suffering population, boost its economy and assist its arms programmes.
That Kim has decided to venture out of North Korea by train to meet Putin in eastern Russia indicates that long-running, secretive talks between the two sides are set to produce a new deal of mutual convenience.
The UK, the United States and other Western allies will be watching closely.
Ukraine-Russia war latest: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrives on armoured train for Putin talks
The 75th anniversary of North Korea’s army was marked in February
Putin has limited options
Washington has warned of further sanctions if North Korea does agree to send more arms to Russia for the war in Ukraine.
Pyongyang has already provided certain munitions, but this leader-level meeting signals a much more ambitious offering is on the table.
Moscow knows too well that it needs more weapons to sustain the current level of combat in Ukraine, which has seen millions of artillery shells fired since February 2022.
Russian industry has already ramped up its domestic capacity to produce ammunition, but the level falls far short of what the armed forces require.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu during a visit in July
Russia’s ability to turn to the international market for weapons has been severely curtailed by Western sanctions, meaning Putin has limited options.
Close ally Iran has already stepped up to provide large quantities of bullets and a range of artillery shells, as well as drones.
However, efforts to secure weapons from Russia’s most powerful friend, China, have yet to deliver any meaningful results amid warnings from the West over military cooperation.
It makes this warming of ties with North Korea all the more troubling from a Western perspective because of the large amounts of North Korean munitions potentially on offer.
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Two states united in notoriety
Pyongyang, already a pariah state, has little to lose and a lot to gain by offering increased support to Moscow.
The threat of even more Western sanctions will be of little deterrence if it is able to guarantee sanctions-busting assistance from Russia.
United in notoriety, North Korea is one of only a handful of countries that supported Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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The North’s one-man ruler has terrorised South Korea and the wider region with ever more menacing missile tests and rhetoric.
The 1950 to 1953 Korean War ended in a ceasefire but remains a frozen conflict, with North and South Korea still bristling with weapons and soldiers.
United Nations sanctions, aimed at curbing North Korean weapons programmes, have cut the country off from most of the rest of the world.
Rather than back down, the North Korean leader has continued to focus his limited resources on developing and test-firing missiles at the expense of his long-suffering people.
The COVID pandemic further reinforced their isolation and desperation.
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Kim Jong Un shows off weapons to Shoigu
Today, the country urgently needs food supplies and income – two things Russia could provide in return for munitions.
Kim will also be looking for Russian technological support in advancing his military lethality, including a nuclear weapons programme and spy satellites.
Only last week, it was revealed that Pyongyang has launched its first operational “tactical nuclear attack submarine” and assigned it to the fleet that patrols the waters between the Korean peninsula and Japan.
State media reported Kim saying that Submarine No. 841 – named Hero Kim Kun Ok after a North Korean historical figure – will be one of the main “underwater offensive means of the naval force” of North Korea.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy says two Chinese citizens have been captured while fighting in eastern Ukraine.
He said his forces had fought six Chinese soldiers and two of them had been taken prisoner. He added he had ordered officials to obtain an explanation from Beijing.
“We have information that there are many more Chinese citizens in the occupier’s units than just two. We are now finding out all the facts,” he added.
As it happened: Zelenskyy demands reaction from US
China is an ally of Russia and has been accused of helping its war in Ukraine, though Beijing has repeatedly denied allegations that it has supplied Kremlin forces with weapons.
“Russia’s involvement of China in this war in Europe, directly or indirectly, is a clear signal that Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” Mr Zelenskyy said. “He is looking for ways to continue the war.”
Mr Zelenskyy described China as having joined Russia’s war against Ukraine and said he expected the US to react.
There was no immediate comment from China.
How many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia?
Were they volunteers – or mercenaries – who had signed up to fight in the Russian army on their own?
Alternatively, does the Chinese government sanction their involvement – or even encourage it? That would make the situation far more serious.
The capture of these Chinese nationals in Donetsk begs another question – how many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia? In his written post on social media platform Telegram, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said “there are many more Chinese citizens” other than these two.
Still, the Ukrainian president works hard to suggest the Chinese, officially at least, are blameless.
“Russia’s involvement of China in this war… is a clear signal that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” he writes on Telegram.
This is a generous interpretation of China’s approach to the conflict, which is quite openly contradictory.
Fighters of various nationalities have joined Russia’s army during the war, often in return for promises of large sums of money. This does not represent official interventions by their home countries.
North Korea has also sent thousands of its troops to support Russia.
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‘This could be very, very embarrassing for China’
After Mr Zelenskyy’s announcement, the Ukrainian foreign minister said he had summoned China’s diplomat for an explanation, saying on social media the presence of Chinese citizens in Russia puts Beijing’s stance for peace into question.
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Ukraine in Belgorod, almost out of Kursk
Last night, Mr Zelenskyy confirmed for the first time that Ukrainian forces are active in Russia’s Belgorod region.
He described the actions as “just”, adding: “war must return to where it came from”.
Meanwhile, regional governor Alexander Khinshtein said Russian forces are on the verge of reclaiming Kursk, months after Ukraine’s surprise incursion.
He claimed Russian forces had seized the settlement of Guyevo. Russian state news agency TASS said only two more settlements are left to recapture – Gornal and Oleshnya – to retake the entire region.
World
What we learn from video of captured Chinese national in Ukraine – and the serious questions it raises
In a carefully written post on social media platform Telegram, Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the Russian army of deploying Chinese citizens on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine.
What about the proof? Well, the Ukrainian president says his security services captured two people from China in the Donetsk region – along with identity documents, personal data and their bank cards.
Follow latest: Zelenskyy demands reaction from US
A video of a man in military fatigues who had been captured by Ukraine was pinned to the bottom of the statement.
We get snippets of a conversation where the alleged combatant seems to be talking about the events that led to his capture.
“When we arrived at the place… and then my commander.” The man gestures at the floor and ceiling, making shooting noises. “I was also injured.”
Volodymyr Zelenskyy uploaded a video appearing to show a Chinese citizen in military uniform in Ukrainian custody
These details will make it difficult for the Chinese government to deny the incident out of hand, although they are highly unlikely to supply additional information.
Important details like, who are they? What function(s) do they fulfil in Ukraine’s occupied territories?
Were they volunteers – or mercenaries – who had signed up to fight in the Russian army on their own?
Alternatively, does the Chinese government sanction their involvement – or even encourage it?
That would make the situation far more serious.
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The capture of these Chinese nationals in Donetsk begs another question – how many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia? In his post, Mr Zelenskyy said “there are many more Chinese citizens” other than these two.
Still, the Ukrainian president works hard to suggest the Chinese, officially at least, are blameless.
“Russia’s involvement of China in this war… is a clear signal that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” he writes on Telegram.
This is a generous interpretation of China’s approach to the conflict, which is quite openly contradictory.
On one hand, Chinese President Xi Jinping describes China as a neutral party to the conflict, while simultaneously offering Mr Putin long-term political and economic support.
In fact, he described their partnership as a “no limits” one in a phone call with Mr Putin on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Mr Zelenskyy then, is making a point with this post – but he does not want to make the situation any worse.
The severity cannot be overstated, if an additional 50% tariffs are levied on all Chinese goods it will decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies.
Remember, 50% would sit on top of what is already on the table: 34% announced last week, 20% announced at the start of US President Donald Trump’s term, and some additional tariffs left over from his first term in office.
In total, it means all Chinese goods would face tariffs of over 100%, some as high as 120%.
It’s a price that makes any trade almost impossible.
China is really the only nation in the world at the moment that is choosing to take a stand.
While others are publicly making concessions and sending delegations to negotiate, China has clearly calculated that not being seen to be bullied is worth the cost that retaliation will bring.
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Tariffs: Xi hits back at Trump
The real question, though, is if the US does indeed impose this extra 50% tomorrow, what could or would China do next?
It has said it will “fight to the end”, but what does that mean?
In reality, there are few good options.
There are some obvious measures that China will almost certainly enact.
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Further export controls on rare earth minerals (crucial for the development of high-tech products) are one example. China controls a huge proportion of the world’s supply, but the US would likely find workarounds in time.
Hiking tariffs on high-impact US products such as agricultural goods is another option, but there is only so far this could go.
The potentially more impactful options have significant drawbacks for Beijing.
It could, for instance, target high-profile American companies such as Apple and Tesla, but this isn’t ideal at a time when China is trying to attract more foreign investment, and some devaluation of the currency is possible, but it would also come with adverse effects.
Other options are more political and come with the risk of escalation beyond the economic arena.
In an opinion piece this morning, the editor of Xinhua, China’s state news agency, speculated that China could cease all cooperation with the US on the war against fentanyl.
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This has been a major political issue for Mr Trump, and it’s hard to see it would not constitute some sort of red line for him.
Other options touted include banning the import of American films, or perhaps calling for the Chinese public to boycott all American products.
Anything like this comes with a sense that the world’s two most powerful superpowers might be teetering on the edge of not just a total economic decoupling, but cultural separation too.
There is understandably serious nervousness about how that could spiral and the precedent it sets.
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