Saudi Aramco’s first-quarter net profit fell 5% year-on-year amid lower oil prices and production.

Net income for the three months to March 31 came in at $26 billion, down from $27.3 billion for the same period last year, the company reported. The figure was slightly above analyst expectations of $25.3 billion.

Aramco announced its free cash flow for the quarter at $19.2 billion, down from $22.8 billion in the first quarter of 2024, and cash flow from operating activities at $31.7 billion compared to last year’s $33.6 billion.

The figures signal continuing strain for the Saudi state oil giant’s balance sheet as crude prices show no sign of recovering and global demand slows in line with pressures on trade.

The company in March announced it would be slashing its performance-linked dividend payout for the fourth quarter of 2024 to $200 million — down from $10.2 billion the previous quarter — and repeated that $200 million figure for the first-quarter of this year, to be paid in the second quarter.

Its first-quarter base dividend excluding the performance-based payouts increased by 4.2% year-on-year to $21.1 billion. But if assessed in total, the dividend fell from $31 billion in the same period last year to $21.36 billion now, due to the cut to its performance-linked element.

“Global trade dynamics affected energy markets in the first quarter of 2025, with economic uncertainty impacting oil prices,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said in a statement accompanying the earnings report.

“In this context, Aramco’s robust financial performance once again demonstrated the Company’s unique scale, its reliability and flexibility, the value of its lowcost operations … Such periods also highlight the importance of disciplined capital planning and execution while we continue to take a long-term view.”

Nasser added, “In volatile times Aramco’s resilience underpins both our financial performance and our sustainable and progressive base dividend.”

The massive dividend reduction eases pressure on Aramco itself, but means less revenue for the Saudi government as it faces widening deficits and mounting debt due to costly megaprojects and lower oil prices.

The kingdom also constrained its oil revenue potential by maintaining months of coordinated OPEC+ production cuts meant to stabilize the market. That policy changed dramatically after Saudi Arabia and several of its OPEC+ allies announced a shock acceleration to production increase plans in April, even as markets and crude prices were tanking on the news of U.S.-imposed global tariffs.

In early May, OPEC+ again raised its production target for June by 411,000 barrels per day — the second consecutive month of accelerated unwind of the 2.2 million-barrel per day voluntary cuts that had been in place since the start of 2024.

Banks and energy agencies have steadily downgraded their oil price outlooks for the year, anticipating large supply gluts and weak demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest forecast sees Brent crude averaging $65.85 per barrel this year, while Morgan Stanley cut its price outlook to $62.50 per barrel in the second half of this year, down by $5 per barrel from the bank’s previous forecast.

Morgan Stanley also predicts a market glut of up to 1.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025 — an increase of 400,000 bpd from its previous surplus call.

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, sees Brent averaging $60 per barrel in the remainder of 2025, compared to $63 previously, and $56 per barrel in 2026, compared to $58 previously.

Saudi Arabia needs oil at more than $90 a barrel to balance its budget, the International Monetary Fund estimates. Goldman Sachs in mid-April warned that Brent crude at $62 a barrel — its price forecast at the time — could more than double the kingdom’s 2024 budget deficit of $30.8 billion.

“In Saudi Arabia, we estimate that we’re probably going to see the deficit go up from around $30 to $35 billion to around $70 to $75 billion, if oil prices stayed around $62 this year,” said Farouk Soussa, MENA economist at Goldman Sachs. The bank’s forecast for the rest of 2025 now sits at $60 per barrel.

“That means more borrowing, probably means more cutbacks on expenditure, it probably means more selling of assets, all of the above,” Soussa told CNBC last month. “And this is going to have an impact both on domestic financial conditions and potentially even international.”

President Donald Trump is standing in his own way when it comes to passing crypto legislation.

Lawmakers this week rejected the GENIUS Act — a bill meant to establish federal rules for stablecoins — due in part to concerns that President Trump’s personal cryptocurrency ventures have created an unprecedented conflict of interest.

“Currently, people who wish to cultivate influence with the president can enrich him personally by buying cryptocurrency he owns or controls,” Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., said in a statement to CNBC explaining his opposition to the bill. “This is a profoundly corrupt scheme. It endangers our national security and erodes public trust in government.”

Stablecoins are digital currencies that are pegged to the value of other assets, like the U.S. dollar.

Getting anything passed in Congress is a steep uphill battle for Republicans given their razor-thin majority in the House, filibuster-proof requirement in the Senate, and Democrats’ increasingly unified stance against President Trump’s agenda. But enough Democrats appeared to be on board with a stablecoin law to bring about a rare bipartisan win for the president.

That’s until $TRUMP got in the way.

The president’s meme coin, which he launched just before the inauguration in January, has added billions of dollars of paper worth to his coffers. Its value soared last month after the project ran a promotion offering top $TRUMP holders a dinner with the president and a “VIP White House tour.” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., called it a “pay-for-play scheme.” First Lady Melania Trump has a coin as well.

The GENIUS bill failed to advance in the Senate on Thursday. It needed 60 votes to move to the Senate floor for final passage. The final tally was 48 in favor and 49 against. Three senators didn’t vote.

Earlier in the week, Senate Democrats unveiled the “End Crypto Corruption Act,” spearheaded by Merkley and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, meant to prohibit elected officials and senior executive branch personnel and their families from issuing or endorsing digital assets.

But the key defections to the stablecoin legislation came last weekend, when a group of nine Senate Democrats — four of whom had previously voted for the bill in committee — said that they wouldn’t support it and called for stronger provisions to address “anti-money laundering, foreign issuers, and national security.”

Reports have indicated that Abu Dhabi-based MGX is using Trump’s stablecoin for a $2 billion investment in crypto exchange Binance, creating yet another potential conflict of interest for a sitting president.

For some investors and entrepreneurs in the crypto industry, the president’s pursuit of personal profits is creating a major impediment to long-awaited advancements. After years of setbacks during the Biden administration, the crypto lobby became a powerful force in funding Trump’s 2024 campaign and in successfully backing industry-friendly candidates for Congress.

“It’s unfortunate that personal business is getting in the way of good policy,” said Ryan Gilbert, founder of fintech venture fund Launchpad Capital. “I would hope that everybody in the administration, including the president, gets out of the way of good policy.”

The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment. At a press conference on Friday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, when asked about the meme coin dinner, that “the president is abiding by all conflict of interest laws.”

“The president is a successful businessman, and I think it’s one of the many reasons that people reelected him back to this office,” Leavitt said.

A number of top Democrats, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York have joined the parade of critics, targeting President Trump’s personal pursuits. Gillibrand helped introduce the GENIUS Act earlier this year, but she said this week that there are “a number of outstanding issues that needed to be addressed before the bill could pass the full Senate.”

“I believe it is essential to the future of the U.S. economy and to everyday Americans that we enact strict stablecoin regulations and consumer protections where none currently exist,” Gillibrand said in a statement. “I remain extremely confident and hopeful that very soon we can finish the job.”

Sen. Blumenthal called for an investigation into Trump-linked coins, demanding financial records from World Liberty Financial and slamming the president for “the attempted use of the White House to host competitions to prop up the value of $TRUMP.”

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Arizona, had supported the GENIUS Act but said he couldn’t move forward this week after Republicans declined to provide more time to negotiate.

“Without more time to at least finish the bill, there was no true bipartisan path forward,” he wrote on X.

Launchpad’s Gilbert said the GENIUS Act is just the first piece. More broadly, the president’s conflicts could have an impact on hopes for other legislative achievements and deregulation efforts as well as the reputation of the U.S. crypto industry on the world stage.

“We will be the laughing stocks of the world for this particular reason, and it will hold back continued investment and innovation,” Gilbert said. “There was hope for the past six months that that we could lead in the United States, and that investment should pour into crypto-related businesses, and then it will be simpler and doable again, for all companies to take a lead and to invest in crypto assets.”

However, he said, “if the GENIUS Act doesn’t pass, we’re back to square one.”

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