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GROWING UP, JOE Milton couldn’t help himself when he saw smoke on the horizon. It didn’t matter how many times his mom warned him about the tractor blades that could chew him up, or how the fumes could aggravate his asthma and cause him to hyperventilate. If the sugar cane fields were being cut and burned, that meant rabbits were running for cover, and that meant game on for Milton.

Chasing rabbits is a Pahokee, Florida, tradition in the fall when farmers clear their land for next year’s harvest. Former NFL cornerback Janoris Jenkins so identified with his hometown and its unique pastime that he preferred to be called Jackrabbit.

Long-limbed and quick, Milton was good at chasing rabbits. And with his mom’s voice in his ear, he really did try to be safe. But when you’re young and full of adrenaline and sprinting after something that doesn’t want to be caught, how careful can you be? If it was a competition, he was going to find a way to win.

Milton recalled a particularly stubborn rabbit who raced toward a canal once. Usually they’d hide in the tall grass near the edge of the water, he said, but this rabbit was acting as if it was going to jump across. Never mind the danger that might be lurking in the water below. “You know what?” Milton decided. “I’m going to follow through with it.”

The rabbit did leap, and a split second later, an alligator rose up and snatched it out of the air with its teeth.

Milton slammed on the brakes. “I’m good,” he thought as he watched the gator devour its dinner.

It was the last time he ran toward the smoke. Ever since, he’s been chasing something more elusive than a scared little rabbit: his potential as one of the most irresistible quarterback prospects the state has produced.

Big, strong and a threat to run the football, he checks every box. But it’s his right arm — the one that gator could have easily mangled — that has become the stuff of legend. College coaches came from all over the country to see the towering passes it sent soaring down the sideline and the way it looked so effortless with just a flick of the wrist.

Teammates laugh at the absurdity of it all, the stories that sound too impossible to be true, like the time Milton threw a baseball 95 miles per hour without warming up. For the longest time, Milton was oblivious to his gift. But if he had to pinpoint the moment he knew he was different, it was his senior year at Olympia High School in Orlando when, on a lark, he got down on a knee and tested how far he could throw a football. It traveled 70 yards.

Only now, after five long years in college, is that talent coming into focus. And not a moment too soon as he takes center stage as the starting quarterback at No. 11 for Tennessee — his second school after transferring from Michigan, and his last chance. On Saturday, on the road at Florida (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), all eyes will be on Milton. How his story ends is anyone’s guess. Bust or first-round pick? Underachiever or national champion?

He’s traveled thousands of miles to get here, from Pahokee to Ann Arbor to Knoxville and points in between. All he has to do now is make the leap from can’t-miss prospect to star — and not get pulled down into the danger below.


“MY NAME’S JOE. I play quarterback at Tennessee.”

Truth be told, Milton didn’t need to introduce himself to the adolescent campers at the Manning Passing Academy in Thibodaux, Louisiana. None of the 40 or so college counselors on hand this past June — not Heisman Trophy contenders Drake Maye, Michael Penix or Jayden Daniels — could match Milton’s 6-foot-5, 240-pound frame. Not to pick on Garrett Greene, who was Academic All-Big 12 Conference at West Virginia last season, but he looked like a child walking beside Milton, barely coming up to his chin.

Milton is larger than life in other ways, too. These kids live on social media, so chances are they’ve seen his jaw-dropping throws like this one or this one. And who among us hasn’t replayed the clip of him throwing an orange 100-plus yards? It has 1.4 million hits and counting on X.

The buzz at the Manning academy on the Nicholls State campus surrounded Milton, and the question seemingly on everyone’s mind: How far would he throw during the passing competition?

During a 15-minute recess, after Milton broke the huddle by doing a standing backflip with the ease of someone stepping over a puddle, one camper asked Milton whether he would set a throwing record, although no formal records are kept. Milton shrugged and laughed if off. But then Greene fanned the flames, telling campers, “He’s going to throw it 105 yards!” Greene might as well have told them Milton would throw it over the moon, their eyes went so wide in disbelief.

Nearby, Peyton Manning, who has seen it all in his Hall of Fame career, also wondered about Milton’s limits — whether he had any. Peyton’s father, Archie, has been putting on the passing academy for 27 years, and Peyton Manning couldn’t recall a time when there was more anticipation for a quarterback. “We usually start to throw on the 30-yard line going toward the other end zone,” he said. “You figure you got 80 yards and that’s safe where you’re not going to run a [receiver] into the goalpost. I’m not sure the 30 is safe with Joe.”

There was a twinkle in Manning’s eye, but he wasn’t being hyperbolic. A Tennessee alumnus, he’s witnessed firsthand what Milton is capable of. While having that big arm is great, Manning said, “I know how much he studies. He’s an accurate quarterback, and he’s a great kid.

“I’m proud of him the way he came in last year after [Hendon Hooker‘s] injury and what a great teammate he was pulling for Hendon,” Manning said. “And I think that bowl win against Clemson can just do wonders for a new quarterback’s confidence. Joe’s a senior, but that was a new role for him and he just played so well. We had a good visit last night talking about the work they’re doing this offseason. I’m excited for him.”

Milton said that one-on-one conversation with Manning was surreal. And it wasn’t small talk, either. Milton said Manning hit him with a flurry of questions: How can you be in the present and not worry about last year? How are you leading the guys? How are you taking on your role every day? Milton assured him he was handling his business.

“Life is good,” he said. “I wake up, I’m happy. I’m not in a headspace where I’m stressing about anything. I’m just having fun.”

For one sweltering day this summer, Milton seemed unburdened — by the past, by expectations, by the pressure of having one season of eligibility left to prove he can be what he’s always dreamed of. The eldest of seven children, he fell back into the joy of tossing the ball around the backyard. It was a lesson in patience, he said, and a not-so-subtle reminder of those early days in Pahokee when anything was possible.

So he didn’t flinch when the first camper to cycle through his station was wearing a navy blue bucket hat with an unmistakable yellow block M across the front. He didn’t seem to notice the irony at all. A few moments later, a camper in a bright orange Tennessee shirt sailed a pass way off target, and Milton stepped in and encouraged him, “C’mon, man, I already know you can throw it.” He said to pay attention to his shoulder placement.

“You have no room for error,” he said, speaking from experience.


THE PLAYCALL WAS perfect. Milton, in his second game starting for Tennessee in 2021, took the snap on second-and-long and dropped back as if to pass when Pitt’s defense bit hard. The weakside linebacker rushed upfield while the defensive tackle in front of him ran a stunt, vacating the A-gap and creating a runway for Milton to take off. Defensive back Javon McIntyre then learned a lesson about angles and Joe Milton: Better safe than sorry. McIntyre, who is 45 pounds lighter than Milton, tried to cut him off before the first-down marker and didn’t even lay a hand on him. A footrace, Milton crossed midfield and sprinted all the way inside the 5-yard line before he was tripped up.

Milton lay on the ground and celebrated by crossing his arms on his chest. Neyland Stadium erupted. Was this the moment they were waiting for? Was this the Cam Newton clone they were promised when he transferred from Michigan in the spring? The arm, the legs, the whole package. “He’s the most athletic, biggest human being I’ve ever seen,” said Milton’s personal QB coach Donovan Dooley. “He looks like an action figure.”

“Soon as I stood up,” Milton said, “it felt like my ankle was loose.”

He played through the discomfort for one more series, but he knew what an MRI would later confirm: multiple ligament tears that would derail his season. And how’s this for irony? The defender who tackled him, Brandon Hill, was a friend Milton knew from Florida.

“I had a life flash,” Milton said. Maybe the universe was trying to tell him something. “My confidence level, I thought I wasn’t good enough to play football.”

It wasn’t just the one play and the injury that had him rattled. It was the whole damned thing: two years riding the bench at Michigan before finally getting his shot, only to then lose the starting job to Cade McNamara, prompting his decision to transfer to Tennessee. What went unreported at the time was that Milton broke his thumb in the second game of the 2020 season against Michigan State — a thought that haunted him going into Week 2 against Pitt a year later.

At Michigan, Milton said he thought he was better than he really was. Sure, he had that big arm — capable of firing passes so hard they’d rip apart the seams of receivers’ gloves — but he was complacent and immature. Dooley put it another way: Milton was playing quarterback rather than living the position by putting in extra hours studying the film and understanding the bigger picture. “He wishes he could have handled some things differently,” Dooley said.

Tennessee was supposed to offer a fresh start, but Milton found more of the same disappointment with the injury. Hooker would step in as his replacement and quickly establish himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the country.

But rather than transfer a second time, Milton made the decision to stay and support the team as best he could. He and Hooker became inseparable. No one cheered on Hooker’s Heisman Trophy run last year more than Milton.

Milton said he looked in the mirror after the injury and told himself, “God ain’t make you this big for no reason. God didn’t make you this smart for no reason.”

He asked God for one more opportunity, and asked himself, “What are you going to do when you get it?”


play

3:02

It’s time for Milton III to put talent on full display

SEC Nation’s Jordan Rodgers and Tim Tebow break down No. 12 Tennessee’s Joe Milton III’s talent and explain why he’s gifted in many different ways.

IT WAS A process, letting go of the residual weight of those injuries and the disappointment of not realizing his potential sooner. But Milton has made peace with it.

Now, he said, he’s changed.

Now, he said, “I want more.”

“As you get older, you see how life works and you see how things can come and go,” he explained. “So I treat it differently. It’s more meaning now, not because it’s my last year but because guys want it more. I see it in their eyes, they’re dedicated. So why not give it my all?”

Don’t just take his word for it. Dooley traveled to Knoxville this summer for a few days of one-on-one work with Milton. It was early in the morning when he arrived at Tennessee’s indoor facility to set up, and Milton was already there. And not just that, he had eight or nine receivers with him. And not just that, he had two other quarterbacks as well.

When Dooley talks about living the position of quarterback, that’s what he means. Not being threatened by competition and leading the entire team. Getting to know the receivers inside and out so they’re in sync when the pressure is on and 90,000 fans are screaming so loud they can’t communicate verbally.

“It’s a total 180,” Dooley said. “Joe’s a different Joe. He’s a man now.”

Again, don’t take just one person’s word for it.

Ask defensive lineman Omari Thomas.

“I’ve seen Joe just be able to be himself,” he said. “I feel like that’s what helps Joe thrive in different situations is him being able to be himself, being able to be happy, be uplifting, and just be the person he is.”

Ask tight end Jacob Warren.

“I’ve noticed a shift in just how he carries himself and how he handles interactions with everybody — people around the building, whether it’s the janitor or people down in our dining hall,” he said. “He knows he’s Joe Milton. Everyone knows he’s Joe Milton.”

Coach Josh Heupel said it’s important to remember college athletes are still young and learning. When Hooker suffered a season-ending knee injury last year, Milton took over and was 2-0 as the starter.

“For Joe and his journey — the ups and downs that he’s had from growing up, to Michigan, to Tennessee — it’s all a product of who he is today and has helped make him as strong as he is,” he said.

Hooker showed what’s possible in Heupel’s up-tempo offense, scoring 32 touchdowns and winning SEC Offensive Player of the Year last season. A more mature, well-rounded Joe Milton has people buzzing about beating Alabama two years in a row and making a sneaky run for the Heisman Trophy.

Thomas is no longer surprised by anything Milton does, especially with a football in his hands. Thomas will be in practice and marvel at the speed and accuracy of Milton’s passes.

“He might be joking around and somebody will throw him a ball from the 50 and he’ll hit the goal post,” Thomas said. “I just don’t feel like it’s normal.”

It’s not.

Missouri cornerback Kris Abrams saw it firsthand last season when Milton came on in relief of Hooker and was a perfect 3-for-3. “He threw a bomb!” Abrams said, dumbfounded months later by Milton’s 58-yard pass in the fourth quarter. The only comparison he could come up with for Miltons’ arm was former LSU great JaMarcus Russell. But, Abrams added, “He can run it, too.”

Heupel had another comp: Brett Favre.

It’s not just that Milton can fit the ball into tight windows, Warren said, it’s that he can pick any window on the field he wants — whether it’s smack-dab between two defenders or a spot 70-plus yards downfield.

No one else in the country can make those throws, Warren said.

“No doubt that guy can.”


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1:16

Joe Milton shows off arm strength at Manning Passing Academy

Tennessee QB Joe Milton puts his electric arm on display at the Manning Passing Academy.

WHEN THE MOMENT finally arrived, Milton dressed for the occasion. He put on a fresh Manning Passing Academy cap for the night’s throwing competition, turning it backward, and black socks with “I’m Expensive” written in white lettering. And, despite the sun setting an hour earlier, he wore sunglasses for good measure.

“He’s got a hose!” Cooper Manning, the emcee, warned the crowd before one of Milton’s early throws. He told the volunteers to clear out of the bushes behind the end zone just in case they got pegged.

Cooper laughed into the microphone after one of Milton’s 50-yard-plus bombs. He said he’d never seen anything like it.

“Can you get arrested for having a big arm?” he asked incredulously.

Then Milton really went for it, taking a breezy crow hop and letting it fly on a post route.

“Holy cow!” Cooper said before the towering pass had even reached its zenith.

It traveled at least 80 yards to the back-left corner of the end zone. Texas quarterback coach Brian Thiebaud said it was “the craziest throw I’ve ever seen.”

Finally came the main event: the Long Shot challenge. Three golf carts were set up on the field, dressed in oversized bull’s-eye targets. One cart ran the equivalent of a short drag route. Another cart ran an intermediate post. And the final cart ran a go-route straight down the sideline, punching the gas.

The college quarterbacks went in alphabetical order. Some hit the first target, some hit the second. But none hit the third target until Milton stepped up and made it look easy.

His final pass came down hard on the golf cart in the end zone, and Guidry Stadium erupted in applause.

Milton did a backflip as an exclamation point.

Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers was waiting his turn and couldn’t believe what he’d seen. Milton, he said, has the “strongest arm in the world.”

“I saw Anthony Richardson last year,” Rogers said. “I think it’s flying over his ball.”

Jim Nagy, a former scout who runs the Senior Bowl, flashed back to Richardson, too. The former Florida quarterback punctuated his Long Shot performance with a backflip as well. Viewed as an unproven passer with untapped potential, Richardson wound up getting selected with the No. 4 overall pick by the Indianapolis Colts.

Sound familiar? The knock on Milton has always been that he struggles with the short-to-intermediate passes. Sometimes he throws it too hard, sailing it over or through his receivers’ hands. Dooley said against Clemson, “He was proving to himself that he could get this s— done.” But the questions about Milton’s touch persist. “We’ve done every goddamn drill I can think of,” Dooley said. “Right now, either we can do it or we can’t. It’s as simple as that.”

“In terms of any quarterback in his class, he’s maybe the guy I’m most excited to see what it looks like,” Nagy said. “Because the physical tools are undeniable. I mean, the arm strength and the athleticism.”

Milton might not be in the same conversation as top-five prospects like Caleb Williams or Maye right now, but don’t be surprised if he’s a quick riser. While accuracy and processing ability are the two most important traits NFL general managers and scouts are looking for, Nagy said, “It’s hard not to become enamored with arm strength when you’re an evaluator.”

Richardson isn’t the only example. Josh Allen completed a pedestrian 56.2% of passes and 21 interceptions in 27 games at Wyoming, and he’s blossomed into a star for the Buffalo Bills.

But we’re probably getting ahead of ourselves. Milton has to get through this season first. Up next is a game on the road against the Florida Gators on Saturday.

Rest assured that Milton is confident he and Tennessee will come out on top. As he told reporters at the Manning Passing Academy, “I don’t lose in Florida.”

But that wasn’t the only interesting thing he said before leaving Thibodaux. Before he stepped into the main interview room, he told ESPN the exact answer to the question so many had been asking: What’s the farthest he’s thrown a football?

He’d given only ballparks before — 80-plus, 90-something, far enough. But he went into specifics this time.

“Ninety-seven yards,” he said.

He wasn’t joking.

If he made 80-plus look easy, imagine if he reared back and really put his whole body into it?

With Joe Milton, anything feels possible.

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Do Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy belong in Cooperstown? Breaking down the contemporary era ballot

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Do Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy belong in Cooperstown? Breaking down the contemporary era ballot

With the release of the 2026 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot earlier this week, we’ve officially entered Cooperstown deliberation season.

There are now two ballots up for consideration. While the writers’ process tends to soak up most of the attention, the contemporary baseball era committee ballot — announced Nov. 3 — is more urgent and intriguing. The results will be determined by a yet-to-be-named committee just before the upcoming winter meetings in Orlando, Florida, and announced on Dec. 7.

Though the writers have until the end of the year to determine their choices for the primary ballot, the era committee process will be upon us not long after the coming Thanksgiving holiday. Each of the Hall’s era committees meet every three years, and this year, the contemporary era committee is considering player candidates from 1980 on. It’s the stronger ballot; the eight candidates average 74.1 career bWAR, while the 33 candidates on the primary ballot average 41.3. Even if you just take the top eight on the main ballot, that group averages 70.4.

Much of the attention has been focused on two candidates: Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy. Heck, the Murphy constituency has its own web site, which among other things features documentaries narrated by country singer Jason Aldean and sportscaster Ernie Johnson.

I get it. Mattingly and Murphy were MVPs in the 1980s who attracted legions of fans in their time, many of whom considered one or the other their favorite player. As the captain of the New York Yankees, Mattingly had a huge following, while Murphy’s fan base was national thanks to the Atlanta Braves’ omnipresence on SuperStation WTBS, as it was known then. I have a Murphy model ballglove I got in junior high that I still use all these years later.

Still, the attention sphere around this ballot should be fixed on two other players, who might just be respectively the best hitter and best pitcher who ever played.

Let’s go to the bWAR leaderboard.

2025 ERA COMMITTEE BALLOT

Barry Bonds (162.8 bWAR)
Roger Clemens (139.2)
Gary Sheffield (60.5)
Jeff Kent (55.4)
Dale Murphy (46.5)
Carlos Delgado (44.4)
Don Mattingly (42.4)
Fernando Valenzuela (41.4)

We all know why Bonds and Clemens (and Sheffield) remain Hall candidates rather than Hall members, but that’s all the more reason that we should be on fire, right now, relitigating the issues surrounding their candidacies. It’s as if even those who support the candidacies of Bonds and Clemens in particular have slipped into numb acceptance in a “they should be in, but we all know how it is” sort of way.

The thing about this cycle is that the stakes have changed. Last year, the Hall announced a tweak to their era committee process, something they’ve done many times over the decades. As things stand now, this could be the second-to-last shot for Bonds and Clemens — ever.

The new rule:

“Beginning in 2025, any candidate who appears on a ballot and does not receive votes from at least five of the 16 voters will not be eligible to be placed on the ballot within the Era Committee’s following three-year cycle. Additionally, beginning in 2025, any candidate that does not receive at least five of 16 votes in multiple appearances on Era Committee ballots will not be eligible for future ballot consideration.”

So if Bonds, Clemens or Sheffield fall short of five ballots out of the 16 that will be cast in Orlando, they won’t be eligible the next time their era group comes up in 2028. Then 2031 will be their last chance, if they are nominated.

Most fans are firmly entrenched on this issue. To me, the idea that the Hall of Fame would not include baseball’s all-time home run king and one of the top five pitchers ever, when both are eligible and both have official playing records that are intact, means it will forever be less than what it should be. Given the new guidelines, it’s a shadow that would loom over 25 Main Street forever.

At any rate, only 16 people will comprise the committee that will deliberate over the era ballot in Orlando. We don’t yet know who they are — this will be announced in early December — but the makeup of the committee will tell you a lot about how things are likely to go. It always does, which has always been the primary problem with the various incarnations of the veterans and era committees over the years.

To move from committee to Cooperstown, all of the candidates will need to be named on at least 12 of the 16 ballots. But each member is limited to three names. All eight of the players on ballot have their advocates, so even without the looming presence of Bonds and Clemens, it’s a tough road.

There is no one right way to approach this, but over time, I’ve developed a method to working through how to deal with these ballots — whether it’s an era ballot or the writer’s ballot. These are only exercises to inform my writing about the process, as I have never cast a Hall of Fame vote.

I think of the process as a kind of flow chart consisting of three regions, which are: 1. Eligibility; 2. Objective case; 3. Deep dive.

Each region works as a kind of funnel: You filter out some players, others slip through, unless their cases become clear. At each juncture, you’re asking, “Who’s in?” and “Who’s out?” If the player falls in neither category, he slips through the funnel into the next region.

Let’s apply this approach to the current era ballot.


Region 1: Eligibility

For our purposes as voters (let’s all call ourselves that to get into the spirit), this is done for us. We can only vote for those on the ballot. Write-in votes are not permitted.

So why bother to break this out? It’s all about the character clause:

“Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.”

Some of these things are more concrete than others. We don’t have time for a debate on moral philosophy, but for me the key is simply this: Any baseball writer, commentator, reporter, historian, player, manager, executive or anyone else who finds themselves puzzling over a Hall of Fame ballot is qualified to assess baseball. The rest, as former commissioner Faye Vincent once opined, is “hopelessly vague.”

These things can mean different things to different people, but I believe that the time for deciding whether certain transgressions eliminate a candidate from Hall consideration should fall during the pre-ballot process. You don’t want certain people in your Hall of Fame? Then don’t put them on the ballot. Once they land on the ballot, then it’s all about the baseball part of a person’s story.

The Hall does eliminate from consideration anyone on the ineligible list — those banned from the game — so there are acknowledged limitations. But if the player lands on a ballot, then for me the case moves onto the matters related to winning baseball games and accolades, things that are all a matter of the sport’s official record.

As for this era ballot, obviously the eligibility region neither anoints anyone, nor rules out anyone. So all eight move onto the next region.


Region 2: Objective case

Far more has been written about the objective judgment of Hall of Fame candidates than any other consideration. And let’s face it, this is the fun part.

I want to be clear about one thing: WAR should never be the only consideration for Hall membership. Neither should win shares or home runs or hits or win probability added, or pitcher won-loss record or career saves. You must look at a player’s career holistically and in context, using various criteria and then go from there. In fact, the Hall’s guidelines explicitly prohibit the inclusion of anyone based strictly on some predetermined objective standard.

What we’re looking for are the outliers, both positive and negative — those who are no-brainers to get in, and those whose cases aren’t strong enough to move them into our third region. There won’t be any eliminations in this section today, but this step would help us sort out the primary ballot.

As for no-brainers, you can guess where this is headed.

Bonds: He ranks fourth all-time in bWAR (162.8), first in home runs (762), fifth in OPS (1.051), first in walks (2,558), first in runs created (2,892) … and so on. Recognition in one’s own time is a crucial indicator when looking at an era candidate, and of course Bonds has that too. His seven MVP awards are three more than anyone else and he ranks first in award shares for MVP voting.

Clemens: He ranks eighth in bWAR (139.2) and third in pitching bWAR (138.7), won 354 games, ranks third on the strikeout list (4,672) and ranks first in award shares for Cy Young voting.

Yeah, they’re in. These are the performance records of no-doubt Hall of Famers who should not be on this ballot in the first place. Either they should have been in long ago, or they should have been deemed ineligible. But here they are, and their cases remain as clear-cut as ever.

Everyone else moves onto the final region.


Region 3: Deep Dive (aka The Keltner List)

Now we’re into the gray area — candidates who might be Hall worthy or might not. Because of the presence of two no-brainers on the ballot, and the limitation of only being allowed to list three candidates, we’re down to one precious slot.

The Keltner List is a series of questions developed by Bill James in his seminal book on the Hall of Fame, “The Politics of Glory.” The questions are all closed-ended, so for each we land on yes or no. We’ll run through the questions and list the “yes” players for each one. Then we’ll tally it up and see where we land.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

Remember, we’ve already anointed Bonds and Clemens above, so they are not subject to any of these questions. As for the rest, I give credit for this one to Mattingly and Murphy.

It’s not clear-cut, but Murphy won back-to-back MVPs and would clearly have been in any “best player” conversation during that time (1982 and 1983) and perhaps beyond. Mattingly was AL MVP in 1985, and from 1984 to 1986 he created 20 more runs than any other player in baseball and won two Glove Gloves. Many would have argued he was baseball’s best player at that time.

Yes: Mattingly, Murphy

2. Was he the best player on his team?

This is a yes for everyone except Kent, whose best seasons came as Bonds’ teammate. Kent did win NL MVP in 2000, but hitting behind Bonds (49 homers, .440 OBP) was a boost to his stat line and Bonds had a higher bWAR even in that season.

Perhaps worth mentioning is Valenzuela, who can at least stake claim to this category for his rookie season (1981) when he won the NL Cy Young Award and led the champion Los Angeles Dodgers in bWAR.

Yes: Sheffield, Murphy, Delgado, Mattingly, Valenzuela

3. Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?

Everyone gets a yes here. Kent, Murphy and Mattingly won MVP awards. Valenzuela won a Cy Young. These are strong indicators. Sheffield was baseball’s best right fielder in 2003, at the very least. He was probably the top third baseman in 1992. Delgado was the top AL first baseman once or twice. Frankly, for a ballot like this one, this criteria is a fairly low bar.

Yes: Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Delgado, Mattingly, Valenzuela

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Increasingly, because of the larger playoff formats of the recent era, I’d fold playoff appearances and performance into this question. The murky part is the “a number of” component. Murphy played on a lot of lousy teams and got into only one playoff series. Same for Mattingly, though he raked when he got there. Delgado had a huge 2006 postseason for the New York Mets but that was his only playoff appearance.

I’m giving a yes here to Valenzuela and Sheffield for coming up big for championship teams. Kent didn’t get a ring but hit well over 49 postseason games.

Yes: Valenzuela, Sheffield, Kent

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

This is a yes for all of them, as all played regular roles well into their 30s. Mattingly’s career was truncated because of his ongoing back trouble, but that shortened his peak more than anything. He still played until he was 34 and was the Yankees’ regular first baseman the entire time.

Yes: Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Delgado, Mattingly, Valenzuela

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

As long as Bonds and Clemens are on the outside, this question probably will remain a no for everyone who becomes subject to this inquiry.

Yes: None

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

This is where we turn to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS data as it exists at baseball-reference.com. The answer for all is: No. None of our remaining six really come all that close to the average standards of existing Hall of Famers at their positions. There are some comparable Hall of Famers, but not most. This is not surprising, as an era ballot is by definition a second-chance process.

Yes: None

8. Do the players’ numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

James’ systematized this question in an ingenious way, and we’ll lean on his standard of a score of 50 for our six hopefuls. We’re left with two players who clear that bar.

Yes: Sheffield, Kent

9. Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

I’m going to focus on peak value, which I’ve always weighed close to equal with career value, though with a higher bar. (Think: Sandy Koufax and his ilk of short-career greats.)

This helps Mattingly. His peak bWAR (35.7) is still below the Hall average at first base, but it’s better than David Ortiz and Orlando Cepeda, and virtually even with Tony Perez, Fred McGriff and Frank Chance. These are all Hall of Famers. Delgado (34.5 peak bWAR) isn’t far back, so it’s really about where you want to draw the lines.

Meanwhile, Sheffield had a higher peak bWAR (38.0) than Hall of Famers Dave Winfield, Dave Parker, Enos Slaughter, Willie Keeler and Kike Cuyler, plus some other 19th century types further down the list. When you consider that Sheffield topped 500 homers (509) and has a career bWAR (60.5) that is borderline, his case is building.

Finally, Murphy gets a similar bump. His peak bWAR (41.2) ranks 18th among center fielders. He’s above quite a few Hall of Famers.

Yes: Sheffield, Mattingly, Murphy

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

No one can claim to be the best hitter or pitcher not in. Zeroing in on specific positions, using JAWS, you can’t quite get there for any of the six. Even if you discount active players and PED-associated candidates at first base, Mattingly and Delgado still have to deal with the specter of Keith Hernandez, John Olerud, Will Clark and others who, at the very least, are hard to separate. Kent is blocked in this area by Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich, to start. None of the six clear this bar.

Yes: None

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP Award? If not, how many times was he close?

We’ll fold in Cy Young voting for Valenzuela and defer to the awards-share figures. We have award winners — Valenzuela, Mattingly, Murphy and Kent — and those are enough for a yes. Sheffield had three top-three MVP finishes and had more MVP shares than any of the three who won the award. Delgado just missed winning the AL MVP Award in 2003.

Yes: Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Delgado, Mattingly, Valenzuela

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star Games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?

Delgado played in only two All-Star Games and there aren’t many Hall of Famers with only two ASG appearances. Everyone else played in many All-Star Games and land in peer groups comprising quite a few Hall of Famers.

Yes: Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Mattingly, Valenzuela

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Yes: Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Delgado, Mattingly, Valenzuela

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

All of these players were historic in different ways, not all of them good. But I’m going to stay positive here and award one yes in a category that I view as extra credit. That goes to Valenzuela, whose impact in Latin America in general and Mexico in particular was immense, and it was pretty significant in Southern California as well.

Yes: Valenzuela

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

And so we come back, at the end, where many want to begin the discussion. And here, I’m OK with getting into traits such as clubhouse leadership and things like the Roberto Clemente Award and other areas of community impact. When you are comparing similar candidates, those are separating qualities and, I would argue, are germane to the primary task of baseball careers: winning games, pennants, and championships, but also establishing an identity in conjunction with the teams on which you play.

Even so, I’m loath to judge these players in these areas for the most part, so I will seek hard evidence. There, we find that Mattingly was a Yankees team captain. Murphy and Delgado were Clemente Award recipients.

Yes: Mattingly, Murphy, Delgado


So who gets the nod?

The Keltner List is meant to help you arrive at a thumbs-up or thumbs-down for each candidate put through that ringer. But here I’m taking a different approach. We’ve got three spots. Two of those were claimed early on by Bonds and Clemens, leaving me with one slot.

Well, the Keltner List left three players that landed nine yes votes among the 15 questions: Sheffield, Murphy and Mattingly. All of them are worthy Hall of Famers. But we have to whittle it down, so it comes down to picking one.

My pick: Murphy

Murphy had the highest peak value of the trio and had a stint in the conversation as the best player in the sport. He was an all-around player, as his five Gold Gloves will attest. His reputation in the sport, while not the top-line consideration for me, is something I very much honor.

I wish it didn’t have to be only three and I will always believe that all Hall votes shouldn’t be space-limited by rule. Either someone is a Hall of Famer, or they aren’t. But for now, we have only so many lines to fill in and I’d fill mine with Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Dale Murphy.

Whether you agree with this approach probably comes down to your stance on the character clause. For me, this is the simple, direct way to approach the murkiest and most glorious of all baseball debates — whether a player’s career merits Hall of Fame induction.

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Source: Jets goalie Hellebuyck to miss 4-6 weeks

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Source: Jets goalie Hellebuyck to miss 4-6 weeks

The Winnipeg Jets will be without star goalie Connor Hellebuyck for four to six weeks as he undergoes a minor arthroscopic procedure on his knee, a source confirmed to ESPN.

Hellebuyck has been dealing with the injury since training camp. Winnipeg coach Scott Arniel said the goalie has tried to play through it but felt soreness after games. The Jets and their star goalie felt it was best to address it now opposed to having it linger any longer. His surgery is scheduled for Saturday.

Hellebuyck, 32, has won the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goaltender for two straight seasons and was trying to become the first netminder since Hall of Famer Dominik Hasek (1996-99) to win the award three straight times.

Overall, Hellebuyck has three Vezina Trophy wins and has been a finalist for the award five times.

He’s 8-6-0 with a .913 save percentage and a 2.51 goals-against average in 14 games for the Jets, who are third in the Central Division with a .632 points percentage. Hellebuyck last played Saturday at Calgary, stopping 31 of 34 shots and then three more in the Jets’ shootout win over the Flames.

Winnipeg recalled goaltender Thomas Milic from the AHL Manitoba Moose, and he will tandem with backup goalie Eric Comrie in Hellebuyck’s absence.

Hellebuyck is expected to be the starting goaltender for Team USA at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy in February. He served in that role for the Americans at the 4 Nations Face-Off last season, losing in the gold medal game to Canada.

His injury was originally reported by TSN.

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NHL Power Rankings: 1-32 poll, each team’s quarter-season MVP

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NHL Power Rankings: 1-32 poll, each team's quarter-season MVP

With another week of the 2025-26 NHL season in the books, ESPN’s panel of voters continues to believe the Colorado Avalanche are the top team in the league.

Beyond No. 1, there were some major swings this week, including the first top-10 appearance by the Chicago Blackhawks in quite some time, as Connor Bedard & Co. continue to be in the mix for a playoff spot with a quarter of the season complete.

Speaking of the quarter-season mark, as part of this week’s rankings we’ve identified the most valuable player for each team through 25% of the season.

How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday.

Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 14. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.

Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 82.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Nathan MacKinnon. With all due respect to the monster season thus far from Cale Makar, we have to give the nod to MacKinnon, who is leading the league in both points (36) and goals (16).

Next seven days: @ NSH (Nov. 22), @ CHI (Nov. 23), vs. SJ (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 70%

Quarter-season MVP: Seth Jarvis. Who else but the Hurricanes’ rising superstar, who continues to play in all situations and hover around a point-per-game pace while doing so.

Next seven days: @ WPG (Nov. 21), @ BUF (Nov. 23), vs. NYR (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 64.3%

Quarter-season MVP: Leo Carlsson. The Ducks’ selection of Carlsson at No. 2 overall in the 2023 draft over Adam Fantilli was puzzling to some observers. It is puzzling no more, as the 20-year-old Swede is at the front of the proverbial Flying V for a Ducks team that is in the mix atop the Pacific Division.

Next seven days: vs. VGK (Nov. 22), vs. VAN (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 69%

Quarter-season MVP: Mikko Rantanen. The Stars didn’t need to see how well Rantanen would perform on their roster before inking him to a long-term deal; that contract was signed the same day he was acquired from the Hurricanes. So far, so good.

Next seven days: @ CGY (Nov. 22), @ EDM (Nov. 25), @ SEA (Nov. 26)

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Mikko Rantanen scores 300th career goal for Stars

Mikko Rantanen lights the lamp to score his 300th career goal for Stars.


Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 67.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Jesper Bratt. Unfortunately, Bratt and the other Devils have experience playing without Jack Hughes in the lineup. They’ll get more of it for the next several weeks following No. 86’s “freak injury” at a steakhouse in Chicago last week.

Next seven days: @ PHI (Nov. 22), vs. DET (Nov. 24), vs. STL (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 63.2%

Quarter-season MVP: Mark Scheifele. The Jets’ top-line center has never hit the 50-goal or 100-point plateau in his NHL career, coming closest with 42 goals in 2022-23 and 87 points in 2024-25. He’s currently on pace for 50 tallies and 109 points.

Next seven days: vs. CAR (Nov. 21), vs. MIN (Nov. 23), @ WSH (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 65%

Quarter-season MVP: Jack Eichel. Though he has fallen off of his perch atop the goals and points races, Eichel led the Knights with 24 points through 19 games, making a strong push for his first Hart Trophy nod.

Next seven days: @ ANA (Nov. 22), @ UTA (Nov. 24), vs. OTT (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 63.2%

Quarter-season MVP: Sidney Crosby. Prior to the season, the trade rumors ran wild with potential new destinations for No. 87. Instead, he’s led a resurgent Penguins team to a spot near the top of the Metro Division, including six power-play goals for the NHL’s top man-advantage attack.

Next seven days: vs. MIN (Nov. 21), vs. SEA (Nov. 22), vs. BUF (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 60%

Quarter-season MVP: Connor Bedard. The Blackhawks might have something in this kid, after all. With 29 points through 19 games in his third NHL season, Bedard is on pace for 118 — and Chicago is right in the mix for a playoff spot after a quarter of the season.

Next seven days: @ BUF (Nov. 21), vs. COL (Nov. 23), vs. MIN (Nov. 26)

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1:18

Connor Bedard nets hat trick for Blackhawks

Connor Bedard scores three goals for Chicago on Tuesday night against Calgary.


Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 59.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Dylan Larkin. Larkin put the hockey world on notice with his performance during the 4 Nations Face-Off last season and has carried at least some of that momentum forward into this NHL season, scoring with 24 points (12 goals and 12 assists) through his first 20 games.

Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Nov. 22), @ NJ (Nov. 24), vs. NSH (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 59.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Adrian Kempe. With a new contract extension now in hand, Kempe has been able to completely put the business aspect out of mind and focus on his on-ice performance. With 19 points, he’s the Kings’ leading scorer through 20 games.

Next seven days: vs. BOS (Nov. 21), vs. OTT (Nov. 24)


Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 61.9%

Quarter-season MVP: Matthew Schaefer. Honorable mention here to Bo Horvat and his team-leading 13 goals and 24 points, but the nod goes to the 2025 No. 1 pick, who leads the Isles in ice time per game (22:29), was recently added to Canada’s 90-man list of Olympic candidates, and may be responsible for a sudden positive surge in vibes on the Island.

Next seven days: vs. STL (Nov. 22), vs. SEA (Nov. 23), vs. BOS (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 60%

Quarter-season MVP: Jake Guentzel. Like the team in general, Guentzel didn’t get off to the best start this season. But, he has picked it up in November (with seven goals and three assists through the month’s first eight games), as the Lightning look to climb back up the Atlantic Division standings.

Next seven days: @ WSH (Nov. 22), vs. PHI (Nov. 24), vs. CGY (Nov. 26)

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Jake Guentzel completes Lightning late show with OT winner

Jake Guentzel lights the lamp to win it for the Lightning in overtime.


Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 54.6%

Quarter-season MVP: David Pastrnak. For the Bruins to make noise this season, a lot was going to have to go right. One of those factors was Pastrnak scoring like the top-tier player he is. So far, so good, as Pasta scored 27 points through his first 22 games, with the Bruins near the top of the division.

Next seven days: @ LA (Nov. 21), @ SJ (Nov. 23), @ NYI (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 57.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Jakub Dobes. Although he has cooled off a bit after winning all six of his starts in October, the Czech 24-year-old appears to be the Habs’ better option in net this season, as he stakes his own claim in the Calder Trophy race.

Next seven days: vs. TOR (Nov. 22), @ UTA (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 62.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Jaden Schwartz. The Kraken have been one of the season’s pleasant surprises, remaining in the mix for a playoff spot through the first quarter. It has been a full-team effort — only six players have double-digit points after 19 games, and no one is in double digits in the goals column — so we’ll give the nod to the venerable, 33-year-old who shared the team scoring lead through 19 games and led the team with a plus-8 rating.

Next seven days: @ PIT (Nov. 22), @ NYI (Nov. 23), vs. DAL (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 54.8%

Quarter-season MVP: Nick Schmaltz. In the club’s first official season as the Mammoth, Schmaltz has led the team in scoring (22 points) and is tied for game-winning goals (two, with Clayton Keller) through the first 20 games.

Next seven days: vs. NYR (Nov. 22), vs. VGK (Nov. 24), vs. MTL (Nov. 26)

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Schmaltz nets second career hat trick in Mammoth’s win

Nick Schmaltz scores a trio of goals to lead Utah to a 6-3 win over San Jose.


Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 60%

Quarter-season MVP: Tim Stutzle. The Sens had captain Brady Tkachuk for three games before the forward’s upper-body injury sidelined him. Stutzle answered the call to fill the scoring gap, with a point-per-game pace through 19 games and double-digit goals.

Next seven days: @ SJ (Nov. 22), @ LA (Nov. 24), @ VGK (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 57.1%

Quarter-season MVP: Jesper Wallstedt. Sure, Kirill Kaprizov has been incredible, but that was expected. Let’s give some credit to rookie netminder Wallstedt, who has gone 5-0-2 in seven starts, with a 2.10 goals-against average (second in the league) and .926 save percentage (first).

Next seven days: @ PIT (Nov. 21), @ WPG (Nov. 23), @ CHI (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 57.1%

Quarter-season MVP: Logan Thompson. Thompson was the last line of defense for a team that nearly won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2024-25. He isn’t winning as often this season, but his other numbers are even better: a league-leading 1.85 goals-against average, and .920 save percentage (third).

Next seven days: vs. TB (Nov. 22), vs. CBJ (Nov. 24), vs. WPG (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 57.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Brad Marchand. The Panthers headed into this season defending two straight Stanley Cup championships, but without captain Aleksander Barkov (out until April) and Matthew Tkachuk (December). The team’s big trade deadline addition from last season (and playoff star) has stepped up, scoring a team-leading 23 points through 18 games; that puts him on pace for 99 points, one shy of a career high set back in 2018-19.

Next seven days: vs. EDM (Nov. 22), @ NSH (Nov. 24), vs. PHI (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 60.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Trevor Zegras. Who knew that a change of scenery was all it took to get Zegras’ career back on an upward trajectory? The No. 9 pick of the 2019 draft had hit a wall in Anaheim, but is soaring in Philly.

Next seven days: vs. NJ (Nov. 22), TB (Nov. 24), @ FLA (Nov. 26)

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0:18

Trevor Zegras goes five-hole for Flyers’ shootout winner

Trevor Zegras goes between the legs to score the lone goal in the shootout for the Flyers vs. the Blues.


Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 57.1%

Quarter-season MVP: Jet Greaves. Are we witnessing a changing of the guard in Columbus’ crease in real time? Greaves finished the 2024-25 season strong, and has been the goalie of choice for Columbus thus far this season, with 12 starts to Elvis Merzlikins‘ eight (and better stats as well).

Next seven days: @ DET (Nov. 22), @ WSH (Nov. 24), vs. TOR (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 50%

Quarter-season MVP: Igor Shesterkin/Jonathan Quick. The Rangers are still trying to figure out the right formula on offense, but the goal-suppression effort has been superb. Shesterkin is putting forth another superb effort, with a 7-7-2 record, 2.43 goals-against average and .911 save percentage; Quick has him beat in both of the ratios — 1.42 and .951 (!) — though he has fallen victim to the same lack of goal support, with a 3-2-0 mark. Things would be much worse for the Blueshirts without them.

Next seven days: @ UTA (Nov. 22), vs. STL (Nov. 24), @ CAR (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 50%

Quarter-season MVP: Connor McDavid. Ho hum, another season of elite scoring from the game’s greatest talent. Through 22 games, McDavid’s 32 points are six clear of second-best on the team (Leon Draisaitl‘s 26), as the Oil look to climb out of another early-season hole in the standings.

Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 22), vs. DAL (Nov. 25)


Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 54.8%

Quarter-season MVP: Macklin Celebrini. Celebrini went first overall in the 2024 draft — so we knew he’d be good. Did anyone expect him to be on pace to break the Sharks’ all-time scoring record in his second pro season?

Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 22), vs. BOS (Nov. 23), @ COL (Nov. 26)

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0:32

Macklin Celebrini’s hat trick wins it for Sharks in OT

Macklin Celebrini scores on the power play for San Jose Sharks


Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50%

Quarter-season MVP: William Nylander. It hasn’t been the greatest season in the storied history of the Maple Leafs — what with injuries to key skaters such as Auston Matthews and Chris Tanev, and the appearance of four goaltenders on the seasonal stat sheet due to injuries in the crease. But Nylander has been Mr. Reliable, with an impressive 27 points through 17 games, including some eye-popping highlights.

Next seven days: @ MTL (Nov. 22), @ CBJ (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 45.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Quinn Hughes. Rare is the team led in scoring by a defenseman, but such has been the case for the Canucks this season, with their captain leading the way en route to (likely) another Norris Trophy finalist spot.

Next seven days: vs. CGY (Nov. 23), @ ANA (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 45%

Quarter-season MVP: Tage Thompson. Some day, the Sabres will return to the playoffs, providing a payoff to one of the most passionate fan bases in the sport. For now, Thompson keeps scoring goals (10 of them so far), and might earn a spot to represent Team USA at the Milan-Cortina Olympics.

Next seven days: vs. CHI (Nov. 21), vs. CAR (Nov. 23), @ PIT (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 42.9%

Quarter-season MVP: Robert Thomas. Not a lot has gone right for the Blues this season after they snuck into the playoffs last season (and nearly knocked off the Jets). So, we’ll give the nod to Thomas, the only player on the roster who has played in more than one game and has a positive plus/minus rating (along with his 13 points through 16 games).

Next seven days: @ NYI (Nov. 22), @ NYR (Nov. 24), @ NJ (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 40%

Quarter-season MVP: Filip Forsberg. At this point, GM Barry Trotz needs to figure out who is going to be a part of the next competitive version of the Predators and who is not. We think that Forsberg — who has been around the past few versions — will still be there when Nashville makes the playoffs again.

Next seven days: vs. COL (Nov. 22), vs. FLA (Nov. 24), @ DET (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 34.1%

Quarter-season MVP: Nazem Kadri. It has been a rough season for the Flames, and this roster could look quite a bit different by season’s end (with trade rumors already circling Kadri, Rasmus Andersson, Blake Coleman and others). So, as the leading scorer, the veteran center earns the quarter-season MVP honors here.

Next seven days: vs. DAL (Nov. 22), VAN (Nov. 23), @ TB (Nov. 26)

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