‘I’m surprised it wasn’t 101-100:’ How one 1990 game showed the future of college football
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Dave Wilson, ESPN Staff Writer
ON NOV. 3, 1990, all hell broke loose in the Astrodome.
The TCU Horned Frogs and Houston Cougars combined to make history, stunning the college football world in a shootout that defied belief, with Houston ultimately prevailing, 56-35. Seven NCAA records were set, including a combined 1,563 yards of offense and the most combined passing yards in a game (1,253). There were 13 touchdown drives, with the longest one clocking in at 1:39. As in 99 seconds.
The game drew just 25,725 fans and aired on tape delay at 12:30 a.m. the next day on a regional network called Home Sports Entertainment. Yet, 33 years later, its legacy will be felt in the Cougars’ first Big 12 game, which reunites Houston and TCU in college football’s highest levels for the first time since the Southwest Conference dissolved after the 1995 season.
The game became national news with highlights across the country showing footballs flying left and right, more akin to a tennis match than a football game in that era. That’s what happens when a backup quarterback making his first start, TCU’s Matt Vogler, throws for 690 yards and his opponent, David Klingler, adds 563 and seven touchdowns.
Sonny Dykes, then a baseball player at Texas Tech, couldn’t believe what he was seeing. Hal Mumme, then the coach at miniscule Iowa Wesleyan, watched TCU coach Jim Wacker’s weekly show to see what he was up to, jealous of the yardage they piled up.
“Maybe we’re not crazy after all,” Mumme told his offensive coordinator, Mike Leach, as they continued trying to light up scoreboards of their own, with a sophomore receiver named Dana Holgorsen catching passes in their newly christened Air Raid scheme.
Dykes said this week the game was one that piqued his interest in coaching football, despite not playing in college. He grew up in the SWC era while his dad, Spike Dykes, was the head coach at Texas Tech. In the 1986 season, Spike’s first year as the Red Raiders’ coach, Houston averaged 96.6 passing yards per game under Bill Yeoman, the pioneer of the famed veer option rushing attack, while Wacker, a veer acolyte himself, and TCU averaged 109.6. Just four years later, this was a seismic shift.
“I had just never seen anything like it before, in particular two Texas teams,” Sonny Dykes said. “I just remember thinking, ‘Man, if this is what the future looks like, I’m pretty excited about it.'”
Dykes went all in. The record for the combined quarterbacks’ yardage stood until 2014, when it was broken by Washington State’s Connor Halliday (734) and Cal’s Jared Goff (527) for a total of 1,261 yards. The two coaches in that one: Leach and Dykes. In 2016, it was broken again by Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes (734) and Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield (545), both with Air Raid playcallers, Kliff Kingsbury and Lincoln Riley, who played when Leach and Dykes were coaching in Lubbock.
Bob DeBesse, TCU’s offensive coordinator in 1990, who’s now the head coach at Grapevine High School in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, says that long-ago game still feels current.
“It was a glimpse into the future,” DeBesse said. “But who would have ever guessed the future would look like it does?”
JOHN JENKINS ALWAYS believed football should look like it does. He’s a cocky, enigmatic, secretive mad scientist of a coach and the architect of Houston’s version of the run ‘n’ shoot. He coached alongside run ‘n’ shoot guru Mouse Davis for the Houston Gamblers of the USFL, then was promoted to replace Davis as offensive coordinator and got to work tweaking the scheme. In his first game as a playcaller, he rallied the Gamblers and quarterback Jim Kelly from a 33-13 deficit with eight minutes left in the game to a 34-33 win that Sports Illustrated called “The Greatest Game Never Seen” because it also wasn’t televised.
By the time he got to UH in 1987, as offensive coordinator for Jack Pardee, the Cougars were in trouble. In Yeoman’s last season in 1986, the Cougars finished 1-11 and were under NCAA investigation, as much of the SWC was in this era. Jenkins said there was even talk of dropping football.
“The Astrodome was no longer an Eighth Wonder of the World; nobody cared anymore and they didn’t want to see that,” Jenkins said. “Jack Pardee asked me to go talk to half a dozen boosters and I told them, ‘Hey, wait a minute, don’t even think about dropping football at this school. You have no idea what’s fixin’ to happen.’ I’d heard them all — [Baylor’s] Grant Teaff and [Texas’] David McWilliams and Spike and everybody, R.C. [Slocum at Texas A&M], all those guys talking piling up bodies for a 2-yard gain. They have no idea what’s fixin’ to hit them. There’s gonna be some nosebleeds up in the upper deck with balls flying through the air.”
By 1989, Jenkins was right. The Cougars scored 53.5 points a game. They averaged 511 passing yards and 625 total yards (both still NCAA records), culminating in a Heisman Trophy for Andre Ware. Manny Hazard caught a record 142 passes. Chuck Weatherspoon averaged a record 9.6 yards per carry. Houston topped the 60-point mark five times that year, including scoring 95 against SMU and rolling up 1,021 yards of offense (also still a record, as you might guess). Again, nobody saw it, because the Cougars were banned from television because they were on a third NCAA probation because of an estimated 250 recruiting violations at the end of the 25-year Yeoman era, according to the NCAA.
Wacker too had realized that to keep up at TCU, he was going to have to ditch the veer. A few years prior, he installed the “triple shoot,” a variation of the run ‘n’ shoot that utilized more tight ends and backs. Before Leach’s Air Raid offense at Texas Tech made Big 12 teams keep pace, Jenkins was already doing it.
This caught the eye of Stephen Shipley, a highly recruited receiver from East Texas. Shipley has his own deep connections to the evolution of football in the state. He’s the uncle of Jordan and Jaxson Shipley, the former Texas Longhorns wide receivers. But in the late 1980s, his high school, Lindale, was throwing the ball more than most Texas schools did, thanks to the talented Shipley and a strong-armed quarterback named Pat Mahomes. As in the former major leaguer and father of the reigning Super Bowl MVP.
“I remember getting calls from OU and A&M and my first response was, ‘Heck no, I’m not coming to block for your running backs,'” Shipley said. “I wanted to catch the ball. That was the main reason I went to TCU. I knew they had the sanctions, limited scholarships, and it was going to be a tough road, but it was a chance to be a part of the change of the game.”
After the 1989 season, Pardee was hired as the coach of the Houston Oilers (where he unleashed the same offensive assault with Warren Moon across town), and Jenkins succeeded him at U of H as head coach. As his own boss, Jenkins could be as brash as he wanted, like when he unleashed Klingler to throw 11 touchdowns against Eastern Washington that season. When Houston and TCU finally met in Nov. 1990, the Southwest Conference, the laboratory that gave us the Wishbone and the Veer, now saw two dueling all-out aerial attacks.
Marc Dove, TCU’s defensive coordinator at the time, had worked for Emory Bellard, the inventor of the wishbone alongside Jenkins — who was his linebackers coach — at Mississippi State, and said the run ‘n’ shoot was much more challenging to defend. So when it came time to face his old friend Jenkins and Klingler, he knew he had his work cut out for him.
“We tried about everything and found not much of anything that worked,” Dove said of devising schemes to beat the run ‘n’ shoot.
When it came time to face Houston in 1990, Dove tried to mix up coverages, but was also aggressive. Klingler threw four interceptions, though Jenkins said some were bobbled passes and weren’t on him. Still, the machine wasn’t up to Jenkins’ standards at times.
“The expectation was perfection, we expected to score on every play. I remember coming off the field after a five-play drive and Jenks would be pissed, saying ‘What are we doing out there? What’s taking us so long to score?'” Klingler said, laughing. “He was just as frustrated as he could be, because we left three or four touchdowns on the field in five plays and he’d had just about enough of watching it.”
Vogler, meanwhile, was under fire the entire game. Jenkins didn’t believe the backup could stand up to the pressure, so he instructed his defensive coordinator, Larry Coyer, to blitz him relentlessly.
“Oh, [Coyer] was nervous as hell,” Jenkins said. “They all are, all those defensive guys. They always worry like hell, they’re going to get burned on a blitz. Hey, in my opinion, we were ready to go and did not think they could hold up and match us score for score.”
But Vogler did. He stood in there and kept throwing it over the top, including an 80-yard touchdown to Cedric Jackson and an 88-yard score to Kyle McPherson in the first half alone. Klingler, meanwhile, threw four touchdowns passes in the first half as Houston took a 28-14 lead.
“I can remember we’re starting to run off the field at halftime and we crossed paths,” Dove said of his friend Jenkins and Coyer, who he also knew well. “I said, ‘You’re gonna get me fired, John!’ He said, ‘Well, that’s the way it goes.’ And then Coyer said, ‘You’re doing better than me!'”
Vogler rallied TCU with a big third quarter, tying the score at 28-28 with a 9-yard TD to Shipley.
“They blitzed more than anybody I’ve ever seen in my life,” Vogler said. “We were shocked, like, ‘Guys, it’s not working. We’re dropping 88-yard bombs on you because you’re blitzing. Keep doing it and we’ll keep doing this and we’ll just see whoever shakes out with the most points.’ That’s pretty much what happened.”
Klingler and Houston, however, rolled from there, including two touchdown passes to Marcus Grant, who was being covered by TCU’s Larry Brown, the future Super Bowl MVP for the Dallas Cowboys. Grant’s final line: 3 catches, 103 yards, 3 touchdowns.
“I don’t remember what the score was,” Dove said, being reminded it was 56-34. “I’m surprised it wasn’t 101-100.”
There was zero reason to expect this result. Vogler had arrived at TCU because Auburn was put on probation and players could transfer. He was looking for a home, but Auburn was on the quarters system and most schools had already begun classes. He knew some coaches at TCU through his family, so he flew in, arrived on the final day of enrollment, and was running the scout team a week later, backing up Leon Clay.
After Clay was injured, Vogler came into the Houston game with no touchdowns and three interceptions on the year. He finished his first start by going 44-of-79 (an NCAA record for attempts) for 690 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. The Frogs finished with five 100-yard receivers, each of whom caught a touchdown.
“The stars have got to be aligned to have that many yards passing and that much explosiveness on both sides of the ball,” DeBesse said. “Larry Coyer went on to become a highly successful defensive coordinator in the NFL for years, but when we shook hands at the end of that game, I’ll never forget the bewildered look on his face. All he said was, ‘What the hell just happened?’ I’ll never forget that. I think we all kind of felt a little bit of that.”
KLINGLER COMPLETED 36 of 53 passes for 563 with 7 TDs and 4 interceptions. Hazard caught 13 for 164. Weatherspoon, the 5-foot-7, 230-pound human wrecking ball, had 17 carries for 178 yards and a TD and caught 6 passes for 92 yards and 2 TDs.
“We would throw about 300 passes a day every practice,” Klingler said. “Game day was like a day off. When you look back on that day, and even the day that I threw for 716 yards against Arizona State, I went 40 for 70. I mean, I missed 30 passes. So it was really actually a pretty bad day. But what we did, we did so well that you could miss 30 times and still put up ridiculous numbers.”
Vogler said the Frogs were not prepared for a four-hour game, missed their flight and had to charter a plane home. In addition to those 79 pass attempts, he had 15 of the Frogs’ 21 carries. He said he spent the flight back to Fort Worth lying in the aisle, with an IV in his arm.
“I was cramping, my legs were locking up and I was dehydrated,” Vogler said. “It was an event, man, and I just got home and went straight to bed. I don’t think most of us woke up until midday the next day.”
Klingler, meanwhile, says he didn’t see the big deal.
“Oh, we would’ve played them in a doubleheader,” he said, laughing.
In a presocial media era, with no television, most of the country found out about the donnybrook the next morning in their local newspapers. Jenkins said that’s when the calls started.
“When Matt registered those kinds of numbers and still got beat by three touchdowns, people started asking, ‘What in the world is going on down there?'” he said.
Dykes said he was always fascinated by Jenkins. Mumme said he started out as a run ‘n’ shoot coach, and has spoken at clinics with Jenkins for decades. But they all agree that nobody knows exactly how Jenkins did it, because his offense is complicated, with receivers automatically converting routes on every play based on coverage, and quarterbacks who have to be in sync. Jenkins was notoriously secretive, rebuffing any attempts to come study what he did, including from Joe Paterno who called to say his quarterbacks kept showing him highlights of Houston and he wanted to know more.
“[Jenkins] was ahead of his time for sure. He was the offensive guru in college football. Not only could nobody figure it out, he didn’t let anybody figure it out,” DeBesse said. “He’s very secretive about what he was doing.”
Klingler agreed.
“You’d have a better chance to get something out of a Russian spy,” Klingler said. “I don’t know that anybody today is doing what he was doing — or has any idea what he was doing. That’s the problem. Me and my brother [Jimmy, who followed him as the Houston starter], Andre [Ware] and Jenks are probably the four guys that know what we were doing, and it’ll probably die with us.”
The Southwest Conference was hobbled by infighting and NCAA punishment, mostly affecting recruiting by any school not named Texas or Texas A&M. After a magical 10-1 season in 1990, with a loss only to Texas, Jenkins suffered through two 4-7 seasons and was forced to resign. Wacker finished 7-4 in 1991, but didn’t make a bowl game. He departed for Minnesota. Both programs suffered in the aftermath. Houston won four games over the next three seasons under Kim Helton. TCU went 13-20-1 in the same span under Pat Sullivan.
A Big 12 matchup marks a new era in the rivalry, with two coaches in Holgorsen and Dykes who are students of games like these.
“When I was a sophomore and junior in college I actually went to several clinics to hear John speak and take notes,” Dykes said. “John had his way, his belief of doing things and that had a huge impact on the Air Raid. The shovel passes and the screens that run ‘n’ shoot teams threw were a big part of the early Air Raid scheme. Football is all about six degrees of separation and there’s piles of influence everywhere. All of our philosophies got shaped by people and events that we didn’t really even know would have an impact on the way we think and what we do as a result.”
The 1990 game, a split-second in the grand scheme of football’s history, made a lasting impression. On Saturday night, the Coogs and Frogs will be pitching it around again in a game that means something.
“Houston finally gets to compete with major college competition again, and they open up with TCU to start with,” Jenkins said. “How about that? What a joy to see that again.”
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Alden Gonzalez
Max Muncy returned to the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ lineup on Monday, Aaron Judge was back in the New York Yankees‘ batting order on Tuesday, and with that, the two teams that met in last year’s World Series — and had been underperforming to varying degrees in recent weeks — received valuable reinforcements for the stretch run.
They’re far from alone.
Now that the trade deadline has passed and less than two months remain in the regular season, contending teams throughout the sport are counting on key players returning from injury in the days and weeks ahead, hoping they might make the difference between missing out on October and winning it all. And given the landscape, which many consider as wide-open as ever, they just might.
Below is a look at some of the most impactful players on their way back.
Expected return date: The injury to Álvarez’s right hand has featured plenty of drama and required a lot of patience. The Astros initially diagnosed it as a muscle strain in early May and began the process of ramping him up by late June. Then came lingering pain, prompting a visit to a specialist and the revelation that the outfielder was dealing with a fractured bone. Perhaps, though, there is a light at the end of this tunnel. Álvarez resumed hitting off a tee and taking soft toss a couple weeks ago and hit on the field at the team’s spring training facility on Tuesday. The Astros are going to be really careful this time around, but there is hope he can help them down the stretch.
What he means to the team: The Astros lost Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker over the offseason and have received just 121 plate appearances from Álvarez — and a paltry slash line of .210/.306/.340 — yet they’re on pace for their eighth American League West title in nine years. You would be hard-pressed to find a more impressive development this season. When healthy, Álvarez is on par with Judge and Shohei Ohtani among the game’s most imposing hitters. Given how well the Astros have pitched, plugging Álvarez back into the middle of their lineup — with an ascending Jeremy Peña, a better-of-late Jose Altuve and what they hope is a rejuvenated Carlos Correa — could put them in the conversation for the best team in the AL, if not all baseball.
Expected return date: Right-hander Assad, out all year with a left oblique injury he reaggravated around late April, made his third rehab start on Wednesday, looking sharp while pitching into the fifth inning. His next step could be joining the rotation. Taillon is right behind him. The 33-year-old right-hander has been dealing with a right calf strain for a little more than a month but pitched three innings in a Triple-A rehab start on Sunday. He gave up seven runs, but he also came out of it feeling healthy. That’s all that matters at this point. Cubs starters not named Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga have combined for a 4.63 ERA this season. And at this point, there is no outside help coming.
What they mean to the team: The Cubs did not land the controllable front-line starter they desired before the trade deadline. The starter they did acquire, Michael Soroka, pitched two innings in his debut on Monday, then landed on the injured list with right shoulder discomfort. Now, the Cubs need to make up for what they lack in their rotation internally. Assad fashioned a 3.73 ERA in 29 starts last year and was effective both out of the rotation and in the bullpen in 2023. Taillon, a proven innings eater who consistently pounds the strike zone, is probably as good a complement to Boyd and Imanaga as the Cubs can get.
Expected return date: Bieber, who had Tommy John surgery, has not taken the mound in a major league game since April 2, 2024, but the former Cy Young Award winner’s return is approaching. The right-hander made his fifth rehab start — and first since being acquired by the Blue Jays — on Sunday, striking out six batters across five innings. He’ll make another start on Saturday, then perhaps one more after that. Then the Blue Jays will see if they can get the front-line starter they envisioned when they unloaded promising pitching prospect Khal Stephen to pry Bieber from the Cleveland Guardians last week.
What he means to the team: The Blue Jays are counting on several offensive contributors returning in the not-too-distant future, including George Springer, Andrés Giménez and, they hope, Anthony Santander. But Bieber is the wild card. If he’s close to what he was even after winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2020 — a guy who put up a 3.13 ERA and struck out 459 batters in 436⅔ innings from 2021 to 2024 — he can join Kevin Gausman and José Berríos to form a really solid rotation trio in October. But the initial returns from Tommy John surgery can be tricky. Just ask Sandy Alcántara.
Expected return date: Bohm took a sinker to his left side on July 12 and later learned he had suffered a fractured rib, but the 29-year-old third baseman has been hitting ground balls and taking batting practice and will now venture out on a rehab assignment. He could return to the Phillies’ lineup this month. Nola went on the injured list for the first time in eight years because of a sprained right ankle in mid-May, then was diagnosed with a stress reaction in one of his ribs a month later. Now, Nola is finally on his way back. He went 3⅔ innings in his second rehab start on Wednesday and will make one or two more before rejoining the rotation.
What they mean to the team: Bohm and Nola have served as catalysts while these Phillies have ascended to near the top of the sport in recent years, and it’s hard not to see them having a massive say — good or bad — in October. The Phillies need them to be healthy, but they also need them to be better. Bohm was slugging just .391 before going down. Nola, meanwhile, carried a 6.16 ERA through his first nine starts — one year after receiving Cy Young votes. The Phillies’ rotation has been one of the game’s best this season, and it can handle an ineffective Nola if it absolutely has to. But the offense needs Bohm’s production.
Expected return date: Burger is navigating his second stint on the IL this season, this time because of a left quad strain, but he has played in a couple of rehab games and could return before the end of the Rangers’ current homestand. Carter, an outfielder, was shut down with back spasms on Saturday, and though there’s currently no reason to believe it’s a serious injury, it’s worrisome when you consider how back issues plagued him in 2024.
What they mean to the team: The 2025 Rangers do everything well except the one thing they felt they could do best: hit. And while the offense has been a lot better lately, the Rangers could use more production from Burger and Carter in hopes of grabbing a playoff spot in a wide-open AL. Burger has slashed just .228/.259/.401 in his first year in Texas, but could at the very least platoon with fellow first baseman Rowdy Tellez, who has been a godsend since signing a minor league deal in early July. Carter, a rookie sensation during the stretch run of the team’s championship season in 2023, was slashing just .238/.323/.381.
Expected return date: Gasser, the 26-year-old left-hander who excelled in his first five major league starts last year, is in the late stages of his recovery from Tommy John surgery. His fourth rehab start came Sunday, during which he threw 16 pitches in the game and 19 in the bullpen. The Brewers are building him back up as a starter, so he still needs to increase his pitch count. But he’s on track to join a loaded Brewers pitching staff before the end of August. So is rookie All-Star Jacob Misiorowski, who suffered a bruised left shin last week but isn’t expected to miss much more than the minimum amount of time. Outfielder Jackson Chourio, who landed on the IL with a hamstring strain last week, could be back by the end of the month, too.
What he means to the team: The Brewers acquired Gasser as part of the package that sent former closer Josh Hader to San Diego in summer 2022 and watched him shine as a rookie in 2024, putting up a 2.57 ERA with one walk in 28 innings. But then his ulnar collateral ligament gave out, triggering a long rehab that is finally reaching its conclusion. The Brewers see him as a starter long term, but there might not be room for him in the 2025 rotation. If that’s the case, he can be an impact lefty out of the bullpen. The Brewers acquired only one traditional reliever in Shelby Miller before the trade deadline, largely because they believe starters like Gasser, Chad Patrick and Tobias Myers can help them out of the bullpen when it matters most.
Expected return date: It has been a long, slow climb back for Greene and the right groin strain he suffered, for a second time, on June 3. The right-hander seemed to be approaching a return in July, but he experienced lingering pain and had to shut it down once more. Now, though, his return seems imminent. Greene navigated a third rehab start on Sunday, during which he struck out seven batters in 3⅓ innings, and is scheduled to ramp up to 80 pitches on Friday. After that, he could rejoin the rotation. With Nick Lodolo shut down with a blister that materialized on his left index finger in his Monday start, the Reds need Greene now more than ever.
What he means to the team: Here’s what Greene has done since the start of last July: 1.92 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 133 strikeouts, 30 walks, 112⅔ innings. Those are the numbers of not just a traditional front-line starter, but of one of the best pitchers in the game. The Reds have hung around all year, getting better starting pitching than they probably anticipated, but less offense than they hoped. They’ve underperformed their projections, but they still sit just three games back of a playoff spot. Greene — and Lodolo, who might require only a minimum stint on the injured list — could make the difference.
Expected return date: For the better part of two months, questions swirled around the state of King’s health and whether he would pitch at all this season. The 30-year-old right-hander was dealing with a thoracic nerve issue in his right shoulder, an exceedingly rare injury for a pitcher. He simply had to wait for the pain to subside, with no idea when it would. Now, though, he is on the doorstep of returning to the major leagues. King threw 61 pitches in 3⅓ innings in a rehab start on Sunday, allowing six runs but also striking out five batters. His next start is expected to come this weekend against the Boston Red Sox.
What he means to the team: Padres general manager A.J. Preller put together an epic trade deadline, upgrading at catcher, adding two competent bats to the lineup and, most notably, landing another impact arm for the bullpen. His starting-pitching additions, though, were depth players; JP Sears and Nestor Cortes are not expected to make playoff starts. What the Padres need is for King — their Game 1 starter in last year’s postseason, their Opening Day starter this year and owner of a 2.59 ERA in his first 10 starts — to join Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta in the rotation to truly make this one of the most well-rounded teams in the sport. It seems that will happen.
Expected return date: Kopech, nursing a right knee injury, has been throwing bullpen sessions and is expected to be activated once he’s eligible to come off the 60-day injured list in late August. Left-hander Scott, dealing with elbow inflammation, has also been throwing off a mound and doesn’t seem far off, either. Yates’ situation, though, is a little hazier. The 38-year-old right-hander had been dealing with lower back pain for a couple weeks before landing on the IL at the start of August. There is no timetable for his return, though it seems possible that he, too, can be back before the end of the month.
What they mean to the team: The Dodgers have once again absorbed a slew of injuries throughout their staff, having already deployed 38 pitchers — one year after setting a franchise record by using 40. Their bullpen has led the majors in innings for most of this season. At the deadline, though, the front office acted conservatively, adding just one bullpen arm, right-hander Brock Stewart, along with reserve outfielder Alex Call. The approach showed confidence in the arms the Dodgers have coming back, especially in the bullpen. But Scott and Yates, their two big offseason signings, have combined for a 4.21 ERA this season. Right-hander Kopech, meanwhile, has appeared in just eight games. They’ll have a lot to prove.
Expected return date: Optimism around Meadows emerged on Monday, with some light running in the outfield — a subtle sign he is progressing once again toward a rehab assignment. Meadows, 25, missed the first two months of the season with inflammation in his upper right arm that he later learned was a product of issues with his musculocutaneous nerve. He spent most of June and July in the lineup, then landed on the injured list once more, this time because of a right quad strain. The hope is that he can be back playing center field before the end of August.
What he means to the team: Meadows accumulated 11 outs above average in center field from 2023 to 2024 despite playing in only 119 games. In that stretch, he also stole 17 bases, provided a .729 OPS — with fairly even splits against lefties and righties — and accumulated 3.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement. As the Tigers march toward their first division title in 11 years and vie for a first-round bye, they find themselves longing for Meadows in several ways. The hope is that he’ll be a much better hitter than he showed earlier this season, when he slashed .200/.270/.296 in 137 plate appearances.
Expected return date: Megill has been absent from the Mets’ rotation since the middle of June because of a right elbow sprain but threw 20 pitches in a simulated game at Citi Field on Sunday. He is expected to extend to two innings in another session on Thursday. A rehab assignment will follow shortly thereafter, putting Megill on track to potentially rejoin the Mets’ rotation later this month. Megill was solid before going down, posting a 3.95 ERA in 14 starts, and the Mets’ rotation could really use some of that right now.
What he means to the team: When Megill got hurt on June 14, the Mets’ rotation easily led the majors with a 2.82 ERA. Since then, the group has posted a 5.12 ERA, ranked 26th. Lately, it has only gotten worse. The Mets have lost eight of their past nine games, and in that stretch, the starters have allowed 34 runs (32 earned) in 43⅔ innings. Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga have all had their struggles, to varying degrees, of late. And though Megill certainly can’t fix that alone, another capable starter would certainly be welcomed.
Expected return date: Miller, limited to just 10 starts this season, cruised through his first rehab start on Friday, tossing four scoreless innings, and is scheduled to stretch to five innings on Thursday. Given that he has gone on the IL because of right elbow inflammation twice this year, requiring a cortisone shot and a platelet-rich plasma injection, the Mariners will play it safe — Miller will make two more rehab starts before being activated. Robles dislocated his left shoulder while making an incredible catch in San Francisco on April 6 and is way ahead of schedule. He’s expected to begin a rehab assignment next week and could return before the end of August.
What they mean to the team: Robles is the Mariners’ leadoff hitter and spark plug. Over a 77-game stretch after Seattle signed him as a free agent last summer, he slashed .328/.393/.467. And if he can produce something close to that, a Mariners offense that added Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez before the trade deadline and has received a dominant season from Cal Raleigh will be as deep as it has been since Jerry Dipoto took over baseball operations 10 years ago. The Mariners haven’t received as much from their rotation as they would have expected this year, but a staff of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, George Kirby and Miller — 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA while healthy last year — still rivals the best in the game.
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David Hale
If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the debate between the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 over the future of the College Football Playoff, it’s that committees are awful. They get it wrong nearly every year despite the fact that they’ve mostly gotten it right.
Of course, Top 25 lists are no better. You know who votes in those? Reporters and coaches. Reporters clearly don’t know ball, and coaches don’t have the time to watch the games. We can’t trust them either.
There was a time when we entrusted computers with assembling a proper ranking of teams. The BCS crunched the numbers based on some nebulous inputs and spat out the results. And while it might feel like ChatGPT could step in now and become a neutral arbiter, it would also be one more step toward our eventual demise as a species. If humans can’t rank college football teams, it’s just a matter of time before we’re all controlled by a sentient version of those coffee delivery drones.
No, there is really just one honest way to evaluate college football’s 136 FBS teams, and that is to sort through all the data, talk to a host of coaches and players and analysts, and then unilaterally put them into tiers.
And with that, we give you the most official, guaranteed-to-be-accurate, tiered preseason ranking for the 2025 season.
Jump to a section:
Cream of the crop | Teams that are hot | Big Ten’s ticking clocks
Room for improvement | Could be talked into them
Tier 1a: A great matchup for Week 1 and/or the championship game (two teams)
Last season, Ohio State won a national championship and, according to virtually every coach we’ve asked, the Buckeyes were the most talented team in the country all along. Only, if the playoff had waited one more year to expand, Ohio State would’ve missed out, and Ryan Day might’ve been looking for a job.
There’s a fun thought experiment to be done with those facts in mind: Did expanding the playoff give more teams an opportunity to win it all, or did it simply ensure that the best teams wouldn’t miss their chance due to something fluky (or, in Ohio State’s case, something that has become increasingly common)?
We pose this question because it may apply to the Buckeyes again in 2025. With a bevy of veterans off to the NFL from the 2024 national championship team and a fresh-faced quarterback taking over the offense, it’s entirely reasonable to think Ohio State might need a few weeks to get rolling again. The only problem is the Buckeyes don’t have an inch of runway: Texas is waiting in Week 1.
In another era, this game wouldn’t just be the marquee event of the opening weekend but a turning point in the season. The loser would then face another 11 games while residing on a knife’s edge. A second loss — to Michigan, perhaps — would doom the Buckeyes. Texas would still have an entire SEC slate ahead with no margin for error. And yet, it could still be entirely true that the loser of this game would have a claim to the title of the country’s most talented squad.
Of course, this is the 12-team playoff era (and soon to be the 14-, 16- or, if Eli Drinkwitz has his way, 30-team playoff era) which means that the first showdown between Ohio State and Texas will be but an appetizer, and both schools will remain the most likely to hoist the trophy in late January.
Is that better? Would the 2024 campaign have been more fun if Ohio State had been left out because of the loss to Michigan?
With all due respect to the folks in Ann Arbor nodding their heads like they’re at a Pantera concert, the verdict seems to be that the sport benefits when the best teams get as many bites at the apple as they need to close the deal.
Tier 1b: The rest of the best (three teams)
At this year’s SEC media days, we posed a question to one of the league’s upper-tier coaches: How many teams each season can really win it all?
His answer: Four. Maybe five.
This is the secret that few in college football like to discuss, because it invariably quashes hope for lots of other fan bases, and aside from five-star recruits, hope is a program’s most valuable commodity.
But this coach is certainly not alone. It’s a theory posited again and again by folks inside the sport. Just who those four or five teams are may change from year to year, but no matter how much the playoff expands, the number of teams who realistically have a chance to still be standing at the end remains mostly fixed.
That’s sort of the point of why we’re ranking teams by tiers. There are lots of “good” teams, but how many are really within striking distance of winning a national title? Probably four or five.
Now, we could be wrong about the makeup of that five-team upper tier. There’s a first time for everything, after all. But if we’re looking at top talent, a path to the playoff, recent history and we’re properly reading our Magic 8 Ball, then Georgia, Oregon and Penn State are at the front of the line (alongside Ohio State and Texas).
The potential pitfall for each? QB play.
Georgia turns things over to Gunner Stockton, who started last year’s playoff loss to Notre Dame but also drives a 1985 Ford F-150. Aside from a T-bird with a gold eagle on the hood, there’s no better vehicle a QB can drive to provide assurance that he knows what he’s doing.
At Oregon, Dan Lanning turns to Dante Moore, the former prized recruit for UCLA who learned behind Dillon Gabriel last season. Moore has ample talent to get the job done, and if he struggles early, there’s at least a 20% chance Phil Knight bribes Tom Brady to come out of retirement, don a fake mustache and use the name “Dom Frady” to lead the Ducks to a title.
And then there’s Drew Allar, who enters his second year with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki alongside arguably the most talented supporting cast in the Big Ten. The pressure is on for Allar — who has been very good but not entirely elite — to finish the job. We can’t help but feel like Penn State replacing the old press box at Beaver Stadium is exactly the type of curse-ending decision Allar and the Nittany Lions needed to change their fortunes.
Tier 2: Playoff expectations (six teams)
Alabama
Clemson
Miami
Michigan
Notre Dame
LSU
Anything less than a playoff appearance would feel like a serious disappointment for the teams in Tier 2. None feel like an absolute lock, though.
Michigan’s schedule is certainly accommodating. The only team on the docket to finish 2024 with more than seven wins is Ohio State, on the final Saturday of the regular season. But Michigan also has QB questions, with freshman Bryce Underwood considered the likely starter. Last season’s offensive woes led to five losses on the heels of a national title, so getting the QB choice right is an imperative.
Notre Dame and Alabama are breaking in new QBs, too. CJ Carr has plenty of hype and the Irish probably have their best skill position depth in Marcus Freeman’s tenure. The Tide lost four games last season for the first time since Nick Saban’s debut campaign. Patience will be thin in Tuscaloosa, making Kalen DeBoer’s handling of the quarterback room a tricky situation. Ty Simpson, a once-prized recruit, has the inside track, but freshman Keelon Russell is incredibly talented. Could this look a little like the 2016 opener, when Blake Barnett got the start only to be benched in favor of a freshman by the name of Jalen Hurts after two drives?
LSU hasn’t won an opener since 2019. Clemson has lost three of its past four openers. Something has got to give when the two teams face off in Week 1. Clemson can probably survive a defeat, even if Dabo Swinney’s critics will begin the chorus once again that he’s past his prime. LSU will have a tougher time recovering with a schedule that still includes Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. Brian Kelly’s head exploding with fire like the red guy in “Inside Out” should at least provide some entertainment if things go south in Baton Rouge.
Then there’s Miami, a team with all the talent to make a title run but enough self-inflicted wounds over the years to wonder if it’ll be the likes of Stanford or Virginia Tech that trip up the Canes.
(Note: It’ll be Syracuse. We all know it’ll be Syracuse.)
Tier 3: Someone in the SEC has to lose games, too (six teams)
Florida
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Fun fact: All 16 SEC teams rank among the 20 hardest schedules in the country, according to ESPN’s metrics, from the grueling path for Florida (No. 1) to the easy (relatively speaking) slate at Missouri (No. 20).
We know you’re shocked to learn that life is difficult in the SEC. The league so rarely mentions its depth or strength of schedule, and its coaches are reticent to suggest that their teams deserve any additional benefit of the doubt as a result. Oh wait, they’re actually contractually obligated to mention it in every interview.
Lane Kiffin drew the ire of some ACC fans when he said another SEC coach suggested it’d be easier to play Clemson each week than an SEC schedule. That may have been an exaggeration, but according to ESPN Research, a slate that included eight games against Clemson plus a reasonable nonconference schedule would work out to be almost exactly as difficult as the schedule Florida plays this season.
The Gators play eight teams that have spent time in the AP top 10 in the past two seasons, all of whom have rosters made of a majority blue-chip recruits. By SP+, the Gators get six of the top 13 teams (and also Long Island). It’s a schedule DJ Lagway called “fun” and Florida fans call “less enjoyable than a root canal.”
Now, others may parse the data differently, but the bottom line is inarguable: No one in the SEC has an easy ride to the playoff, which makes Tier 3 likely to include at least two playoff teams and at least two schools that fire their coaches, and the difference between those camps will be a few plays one way or the other.
The SEC is designed to eat itself, which is one of the reasons it has pushed so hard for increased playoff access. There’s simply not a scenario in which every school that invests in winning, has a playoff-caliber roster and whose fans expect to make a playoff run, will actually do so.
Tier 4: Last year’s playoff surprises (four teams)
Arizona State
Boise State
Indiana
SMU
In 2023, Arizona State and Indiana each won three games, Boise State fired its coach after a 5-5 start, and SMU was in the American Athletic Conference and lost in a bowl game to Boston College.
In 2024, they were all playoff teams.
The initial 12-team playoff was truly remarkable in that it didn’t simply reward 12 blue bloods. It coincided with an abrupt change in the sport that allowed complete afterthoughts in September to play meaningful football in December and January.
Yes, playoff expansion was the key here, but it’s true, too, that the era of name, image and likeness, the transfer portal, and bloated conferences that equate to disparate schedules set the stage for far more volatility in the standings than ever before. The top end of the bell curve may remain static at four or five elite teams, but the meat of it keeps getting wider.
Indiana and Arizona State both went from three wins to double digits. In the entire playoff era (minus the COVID year), that had only happened one other time at a Power 5 school (2017 Michigan State, who promptly regressed to 7-6 the next year).
SMU came within a hair’s breadth of winning the ACC title. TCU, Utah, UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, Houston — the past six teams to move up from a non-power league — were a combined 16-38 in conference play in their first years in a Power 5 conference, and none had a winning record.
Since firing Andy Avalos after that 5-5 start, Boise State has won 15 of 18 games, with all three losses coming to Power 4 foes.
Life moves quickly in college football these days. The big question as this foursome looks to return to the College Football Playoff is whether the pendulum swings just as fast in the other direction.
(Note from Tallahassee: It does.)
Tier 5: So hot right now (four teams)
Illinois
Louisville
Texas Tech
Utah
We probably shouldn’t use last year’s playoff as an indication of what the future may hold. It’s a one-year sample size, after all. But 2024 gave us six first-time playoff teams, and odds are, we’ll get two or three more this season. And when it comes to predicting who those teams might be, the schools in Tier 5 are the hottest things since Hansel hit the runway in “Zoolander.”
There’s plenty of buzz that this year’s Indiana could be Illinois. If the implication is that the Illini could be a surprise playoff team out of the Big Ten, it makes sense. But the key difference here is Indiana came out of nowhere to go 11-1 last regular season. An Illinois run into the playoff would be far less shocking. The Illini went 10-3 last season, with two losses coming to playoff teams. They also beat Michigan (transitive property national champs!) and South Carolina (though that doesn’t count because the SEC doesn’t care about meaningless bowls). Bret Bielema has built something that looks an awful lot like his old Wisconsin teams — veteran QB, heavy dose of the run game behind a massive O-line, stout defense — capable of competing with nearly anyone. Of course, those Wisconsin teams were notable for being routinely good but never quite great. How high is the ceiling for Bielema now?
Utah enters this season as a trendy pick in the Big 12 thanks to some returning stars, an expectation that last year’s bad luck has to turn, and finally opening a season with someone other than the hollowed-out shell of Cam Rising at QB.
If luck kept Utah from the Big 12 race last season, it may have kept Louisville from the playoff. The Cards lost four games — three to top-15 teams — all by a touchdown or less, along with a defeat at the hands of Stanford that will go down as possibly the single dumbest way to lose a football game that didn’t involve throwing a shoe.
And if you’re not psyched for Texas Tech this year … how much cash would it take to change your mind?
Tier 6: The Big 12 is the new ACC Coastal (four teams)
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
TCU
Ever play credit card roulette? When the bill comes at a restaurant, everyone at the table puts their credit card into a hat, then the server picks one at random to pay the entire bill. That’s effectively how the Big 12 is looking right now. (In this analogy, though, Texas Tech should probably be picking up any checks.) Look at the betting markets and every team in the conference is projected to win between 5.5 and 8.5 games this season.
So, throw the names into a hat and pull one out. You’re as likely to get it right as we are.
Tier 7: Flying beneath the radar like Tom Cruise in ‘Maverick’ (five teams)
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
Washington
We’ve seen a lot of change in college football in recent years, which has made Iowa’s offense such a needed through line connecting the modern version of the sport with an older generation. Granted, that generation probably lived through the Great Depression, but let’s not split hairs. Nevertheless, there were signs that even the Hawkeyes might be taking a small step forward, as the offense scored 40 points in a game four times last season — something Iowa had done just four times in the previous four seasons combined. Now, Iowa has a QB it likes in South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski, the defense should be stout again, and nobody punts like the Hawkeyes.
Kansas was 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year but also had wins over three straight ranked teams in November. With a more settled offensive approach and the return of Jalon Daniels, the Jayhawks look like a potential sleeper.
Not counting the 2020 COVID-19 season, Minnesota is one of just 15 teams to win 60% of its Power 5 games. That’s more impressive than it sounds. It’s better than Washington, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miami and Texas A&M. The Gophers enter 2025 with a ton of intriguing pieces led by Koi Perich and Darius Taylor, and while the schedule includes road trips to Ohio State and Oregon, there’s certainly a path for PJ Fleck to get Minnesota back to the 10-win plateau.
Fun fact: Since Brent Key took over as head coach at Georgia Tech on Sept. 26, 2022, the Yellow Jackets have as many wins against ranked foes (six) as Clemson and more than Penn State (five), Oklahoma (four) or LSU (four). In fact, they have more than Miami, Colorado, Boise State, Indiana and BYU combined — and all five of those teams finished last year in the top 25. Of course, in that same span, Georgia Tech has losses to Virginia, Bowling Green, Virginia Tech and Vandy. So, it’s a work in progress.
Washington is a work in progress, too. In Year 1 under Jedd Fisch, the Huskies floundered to a 6-7 record, including losses to Washington State and Rutgers. But Demond Williams Jr. looks like a difference-maker at QB, and it’s worth remembering that at Arizona, Fisch went from a completely noncompetitive 1-11 in Year 1 to 5-7 in Year 2 with one of the most improved teams in the country. Washington may still be a year away, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Huskies take a big leap forward now before threatening in the Big Ten in 2026.
Tier 8: Regression to the mean (the bad kind) (five teams)
BYU
Duke
Missouri
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
This group of teams won 32 games against Power 4 opponents last season. Twenty-four of them (75%) came by a touchdown or less.
Missouri and Duke each won four games in which they trailed in the fourth quarter.
BYU and Syracuse each won double-digit games despite being outscored against FBS opponents last season.
Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt.
Look up and down the list of luck-influenced metrics, and these teams raise more red flags than Kanye’s Bumble profile.
Perhaps these guys all fend off the fickle college football gods for another year, but if the “Final Destination” movies have taught us anything, it’s that Ali Larter should be in more movies. But if there’s another thing they taught us, it’s that you can only avoid a disastrous fate for so long.
Tier 9: Regression to the mean (the good kind) (four teams)
Auburn
Florida State
NC State
Virginia Tech
This spring, ESPN’s Bill Connelly dug into three metrics that often rely heavily on luck: turnovers, close games and injuries. His findings: A lot went wrong for Florida State last year.
Now, it’s admirable that Connelly dug deep into the numbers, ran some regression analysis and employed NASA-level computing power to identify this. Another way to do it would’ve been to simply watch five minutes of FSU football last season, because at any given moment, something ridiculous was going wrong for the Seminoles.
You simply don’t go from 13-1 to 2-10 without the football gods deciding to do some serious smiting.
Everything that could go wrong did go wrong, from Connelly’s stats — FSU was 128th in turnover luck, 90th in close-game luck and 110th in lineup consistency — to the types of things that were probably a bit more predictable (settling for DJ Uiagalelei at QB over Cam Ward).
It should be noted that, once again, FSU has rolled the dice on a QB with a checkered past, and Tommy Castellanos seems intent on taunting the aforementioned football gods, but at the very least, some of that bad luck has to go the other way in 2025, putting the Seminoles on course to improve by a good measure.
The same can be said for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 1-12 under coach Brent Pry in games determined by a touchdown or less, but it’s also worth noting that last year marked the first time since 2010 the Hokies didn’t lose a single regular-season game by more than 10.
NC State adds to the ACC’s run of bad luck last season, with Grayson McCall‘s early-season injury upending the offense and a 45-point year-over-year swing in points off turnovers for a team that lost five games by 10 or fewer points.
But the team that might have the best chance to turn the disappointments of 2024 into a serious playoff run in 2025 is Auburn. Jackson Arnold takes over at QB for an offense loaded with skill-position talent. The defense should be solid. Then look at the luck-based numbers: Auburn was 124th in turnover luck and dead last in close-game luck, which covered up the fact it was among the best teams in the country in success and explosive play rate differential. The pieces are in place, the Tigers just need a little more luck to make a run at 10 wins.
Tier 10a: The Big Ten’s ticking clocks (three teams)
Matt Rhule, Lincoln Riley and Luke Fickell each seemed like absolute home run coaching hires. Setting aside Riley’s 11-1 start to his tenure at USC, the three are now a combined 40-39 overall with a 23-32 record in Big Ten play since Dec. 1, 2022. That has put all three in a position to make 2025 a must-win year. What exactly “winning” means probably differs a bit by school, but the pressure is on.
Nebraska might be best equipped to make the leap to the next level. Dylan Raiola goes into Year 2 running the offense, but it’ll be his first full season with Dana Holgorsen calling the plays. Add in that, at some point, Nebraska’s run of awful luck in close games has to swing the other way and it’s not unfathomable that the Huskers are in the mix for a playoff bid.
For Wisconsin, it’s a return to the Badgers’ foundations as Fickell has abandoned plans to bring an up-tempo passing attack to the stodgy Big Ten and will build around the ground game.
At USC, Riley lost a ton of big-name talent in the portal and will move forward with a QB who has 19 touchdown passes and 17 turnovers in nine career starts against teams with a winning record.
They can’t all turn it around this year, which makes this perhaps the most interesting portion of the Big Ten’s standings.
Tier 10b: The Group of 6’s other top playoff contenders (six teams)
Liberty
Memphis
James Madison
Toledo
Tulane
UNLV
Liberty is the gold standard in soft scheduling. The Flames have the worst preseason strength of schedule in the country after finishing 2024 with … the worst strength of schedule in the country. Half of Liberty’s 12 games are against teams that were at the FCS level in 2021. It has four games against first-year head coaches. Eight games come against teams that won four or fewer FBS games last year. Jamey Chadwell should have a good team, but the schedule also should make it nearly impossible to finish worse than 10-2.
UNLV and Memphis both figure to be in contention for the Group of 6’s playoff bid, and their schedules certainly make the path a little easier. The Rebels (No. 113 schedule) have a home game against UCLA and a road trip to Boise State to contend with, but they also have eight games against teams ranked 100th or worse in preseason FPI (including six ranked 120th or worse). Memphis (No. 106 schedule strength) also has a relatively clear path. The Tigers get Arkansas — their lone Power 4 opponent — at home, miss Army, Tulane and UTSA from the conference schedule, and follow the game against the Razorbacks with five games in six weeks against teams that finished a combined 15-41 vs. FBS opponents last year. If Memphis can topple the Hogs, expect the Tigers to enter November with a top-20 ranking.
Since 2022, no Group of 5 team has won more games than Tulane (32). The Green Wave ought to again be among the best of the American in terms of talent, but the schedule is no easy task to manage. In nonconference play, Tulane hosts Northwestern, goes on the road to South Alabama, hosts Duke (and QB Darian Mensah, who transferred from Tulane after last season), then travels to Ole Miss. In conference play, Tulane gets ECU, Army, UTSA and Memphis — four of the six other American teams to make a bowl last year. If Tulane makes the playoff, it will have earned the spot.
Could Toledo make a run at the playoff? The Rockets open with a trip to Kentucky, which isn’t exactly an insurmountable hill to climb unless you’re Ole Miss. Win that and the next week against Western Kentucky, and Toledo should have a little buzz. Then check out the back half of the schedule: vs. Kent State, at Washington State, vs. NIU, at Miami (Ohio), vs. Ball State and at Central Michigan. Those six teams finished a combined 16-24 in the second half of last season.
JMU has won 28 games in three seasons since moving up from the FCS, and of its nine losses, four have come by a touchdown or less. The Sun Belt is deep, but it’s not top-heavy, opening the door for the Dukes to make a run at the Group of 6’s playoff bid.
Tier 11: Potential sleepers (seven teams)
Cincinnati
Colorado
Houston
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Virginia
This tier includes Deion Sanders and Bill Belichick so, for media purposes, it should probably be Tier 1. But there are still some big questions surrounding Colorado and UNC.
For the Buffaloes, it’ll be the first time Coach Prime will have to go to battle without Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter. Colorado has topped 150 yards on designed runs only once in two years under Deion Sanders, and the Buffs’ 74 designed rush yards-per-game in that stretch is, by far, the worst in the country. How will Colorado adapt after losing two of the most explosive players in the country in the passing game?
UNC has completely overhauled its roster from the Mack Brown era, with Belichick dipping heavily into the transfer portal — including nearly three dozen spring portal additions. Numerous coaches who spoke with ESPN said this spring was an incredibly shallow pool of talent. Can that actually translate to wins or will 2025 be more about building a foundation than reviving the program?
Instead, it might be the lower-profile programs in this tier who have the real upside.
Virginia added transfer QB Chandler Morris alongside one of the better portal classes in the ACC and plays one of the weakest schedules of any Power 4 school this season. Louisville, Washington State and Duke are the only opponents on this season’s slate that won more than six games in 2024.
Houston showed signs of promise in Year 1 under Willie Fritz with wins over TCU, Utah and Kansas State, even if the final record was ugly (4-8). An offensive overhaul led by Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman should help a program that finished 133rd in scoring last season.
Each of the past two seasons, Rutgers has gone 6-6 with a four-game losing streak in the mix then won a bowl game. Usually, that would count as real success at a place like Rutgers, but coach Greg Schiano clearly has higher aspirations, and the Scarlet Knights might have the talent to push for bigger things in 2025.
Cincinnati blew a big lead to Pitt in Week 2. Pitt went on to start 7-0 before injuries and a handful of close losses derailed its season. Had Cincy hung on, it could’ve opened 6-1 with a win over Arizona State on its record. Instead, the Bearcats finished on a five-game losing streak and did not make a bowl. Both teams are deeper and more experienced this season, with veteran QBs and stars on defense (Kyle Louis, Dontay Corleone).
Tier 12: Even Stevens (seven teams)
Arkansas
Boston College
Cal
Kentucky
Maryland
Michigan State
UCLA
In the playoff era, BC has finished with either six or seven wins nine times.
Arkansas is 30-31 under Sam Pittman. Not counting the COVID-19 season, it’s 20-21 vs. FBS teams. The Hogs are 21-9 vs. teams with a losing record and 9-22 vs. teams with a winning record.
Cal has finished with between five and seven wins six times in the playoff era, and it has 61 games (fifth most nationally) decided by a touchdown or less.
Since 2018, Michigan State is 41-41 — though that includes seasons of 11-2 and 4-8.
Since Mark Stoops’ second year, Kentucky is 65-63 vs. FBS opponents. From 2015 to 2023, the Wildcats were 31-29 in SEC play.
UCLA is 66-64 in the playoff era, averaging 29.6 points and surrendering 29.1 points against FBS opposition.
Now, Oscar Wilde said that consistency was the last refuge of the unimaginative, but The Rock said success was more about consistency than greatness. Who are you going to believe — some long-dead writer or the star of “Jumanji: The Next Level”?
Tier 13: Stars & stripes (three teams)
Army and Navy were a combined 22-5 last season. In 2023, Air Force won nine games. In the playoff era, the military academies have 11 10-win seasons. And they’ve done it all without NIL deals or taking transfers.
Now, if we wanted to really protect America’s interests, we’d start putting tariffs on the portal and using that money to fund academy revenue sharing.
Tier 14: Room for improvement (six teams)
Arizona
Northwestern
Oklahoma State
UCF
Wake Forest
West Virginia
Arizona and Oklahoma State were a combined 20-7 (and 14-4 in conference play) in 2023. Both fell off a cliff in 2024.
The Wildcats struggled in Year 1 under Brent Brennan, but they bring back Noah Fifita at QB and showed enough life that a step forward in 2025 isn’t unrealistic.
Mike Gundy has made it a habit of having big seasons mixed with mediocre ones in the past few years, but last year’s winless Big 12 schedule was an anomaly. Gundy is high on QB Hauss Hejny, who should at least be able to open things up a bit for the run game.
Wake Forest is getting a fresh start under new coach Jake Dickert. The roster needs work — QB and O-line are blank slates — but the Deacons bring back a talented tailback in Demond Claiborne and have the weakest schedule in the Power 4.
UCF is looking to go back to the future by bringing Scott Frost home after his dismal stint at Nebraska. Frost inherited a train wreck during his first stint in Orlando and turned things around quickly — though that was in the American, not the Big 12.
For virtually the entirety of this millennium, Northwestern has effectively put the same team on the field — shaky QB, good defense, smart players — and watched as the results either come up with 10 wins and a run at the Big Ten or a 3-9 season that’s physically painful to watch.
Aside from the surprising 9-4 season in 2023, West Virginia has won either five or six games every year since 2019.
In other words, it’s hard to feel particularly good about any team in this tier, but it’s also entirely within reason that some team here wins 10 games.
Tier 15: Group of 6 with upside (15 teams)
App State
Buffalo
East Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Fresno State
Louisiana
Ohio
North Texas
South Alabama
Texas State
Troy
UConn
South Florida
UTSA
Western Kentucky
North Texas has been a perennial six-win team, but this could be the Mean Green’s chance to make a big leap up the standings. They check-in only one spot ahead of Liberty with the No. 135th-ranked schedule in the country, miss ECU, USF, Memphis and Tulane in conference play, and after Oct. 1, they go on the road only three times — to Charlotte, UAB and Rice.
Florida Atlantic was another team snakebit by bad luck last season. As Connelly noted in his analysis of teams facing the worst luck, only one program finished 111th or worse in all three categories he evaluated: FAU. Now add new head coach Zach Kittley and QB transfer Caden Veltkamp and there’s a lot to like about the Owls’ upside.
South Alabama also had plenty of bad luck in close games. The Jaguars lost to Ohio, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and Texas State — all teams that won eight or more games — by a combined 20 points.
Tier 16a: At least you tried (three teams)
Mississippi State
Purdue
Stanford
Stanford has won nine Power 5 games since 2021. Five of them came against teams that either finished ranked in the top 25 or were ranked there at the time of the game. Another came against Deion Sanders. Stanford makes no sense.
Mississippi State is 2-16 vs. Power 5 competition in the past two years. The two wins are by a combined 11 points. The losses are by an average of 18.
Purdue. More like Pur-don’t. We’ll show ourselves out.
Tier 16b: The lost boys (two teams)
In the past 24 months, Oregon and Washington agreed to move to the Big Ten for 40 cents on the dollar. Stanford and Cal took even less from the ACC. SMU agreed to play ACC ball for nothing, and Memphis just offered the Big 12 $200 million for an invite.
Why?
Because of zombified remains of Washington State and Oregon State.
From former Cougars QB John Mateer, who transferred, along with his offensive coordinator, to Oklahoma after last season’s surprising 8-4 finish, on seeing what became of Wazzu after the Pac-12 fell apart: “I loved my time there. I never thought I’d leave. It sucked. I couldn’t control it. I was going to play against whoever I was going to play against, but it broke my heart.”
Tier 17: They’re fine. Solid. Decent. OK. (10 teams)
Arkansas State
Bowling Green
Colorado State
Georgia Southern
Miami (Ohio)
Northern Illinois
Old Dominion
San Diego State
San José State
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall had New Mexico on the verge of a bowl last season, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he rights the ship quickly at Utah State.
Eddie George inherits a solid squad at Bowling Green, and he’s thinking — well, either aspirationally or he’s delusional — that the Falcons can win big.
Jay Norvell has gone from three to five to eight wins in his time at Colorado State. This could be his real breakthrough season.
Unfortunately for NIU, it lost out on an easy win without Notre Dame on the schedule this season.
Tier 18: We could be talked into them (eight teams)
Coastal Carolina
Hawai’i
UL Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Sam Houston
Southern Miss
UAB
Wyoming
Hawai’i won five games and missed out on beating UCLA and UNLV by a combined five points. The Rainbow Warriors are trending in the right direction.
Louisiana Tech finished 5-8, but its first six losses of the season all came by 10 points or fewer.
ULM finished on a six-game losing streak, even wasting a chance to embarrass Hugh Freeze at Jordan-Hare in late November, which had become one of our favorite Group of 5 traditions.
Tier 19: The best entertainment you’re likely to find on a Tuesday night in mid-November (12 teams)
Central Michigan
Delaware
Eastern Michigan
Florida International
Jacksonville State
Marshall
Missouri State
Nevada
Temple
Tulsa
UTEP
Western Michigan
You might be surprised to learn that Delaware is an FBS football program beginning this season. To help with your preseason preparation, here are some fun facts to familiarize yourself with the program.
The Blue Hen is the only explicitly female mascot in FBS football (not counting Mrs. Wuf at NC State).
Delaware’s winged helmet design was created by former coach David Nelson, a former Michigan football player, who essentially cut and pasted his former team’s look.
Rich Gannon and Joe Flacco both played at Delaware.
Delaware is, in fact, an entire state and not just 18 miles of highway between toll booths in Maryland and New Jersey.
Tier 20: Participation trophies (11 teams)
Akron
Ball State
Charlotte
Georgia State
Kennesaw State
Kent State
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Rice
Massachusetts
You know what they call the guy who finishes last in his class at medical school? They call him “doctor.” And so it is that the teams in Tier 20 are technically FBS football programs, though they’re as likely to finish with a conference championship as they are to finish medical school themselves.
Since the end of 2022, Kent State has had a head coach quit to become a coordinator for Deion Sanders (then be demoted), another get fired for taking loans from a booster and the program posting a 1-23 record, including 21 straight losses. Last season, Kent State was outgained by an average of 282 yards per game — 120 more than any other team. The Golden Flashes play Texas Tech, Florida State and Oklahoma in the first five weeks this season.
Last season, Ball State became only the fourth team of the playoff era (not counting the 2020 COVID season) to have a turnover margin of plus-2 or better and still be outscored by at least 14 points per game and outgained by at least 100 yards per game. So, what happens if the turnover luck is a little worse in 2025?
Then there’s Charlotte, a program that couldn’t even afford sleeves for its last head coach, has had only one winning season in its history, and now faces the second-most daunting schedule of any Group of 6 team in the country. Per ESPN’s metrics, the 49ers’ schedule is tougher than all but one Big 12 team.
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