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As EV demand rises, this is what the future will look like for gas cars, according to new data analysis by RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute).

RMI, who worked in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund, writes in a report released today called “X-change: Cars, The end of the ICE age” that the market share of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars is going to fall to a level of 14-38% of sales by 2030.

RMI says that gas car sales peaked in 2017 and have been falling at 5% a year since then. By the end of this decade, gas car sales will fall to between 14 million and 38 million cars a year.

But it’s not just about just new gas car purchases – it’s also about what happens to gas cars already on the road, because the gas car stock is a function of gross sales and the scrappage of existing cars.

RMI assumes the life of a car to be around 15 years. Over the past decade, RMI writes, the number of gas cars scrapped annually has been between 40 and 50 million. But using historical data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), RMI estimates that the gas car scrappage rate will climb to between 60 and 70 million annually by 2030, based on the number of gas car sales 15 years ago, which was at around 80 million. (Scrappage is another recycling challenge that is going to need to be urgently addressed.)

RMI gives the example that in 2022, there were sales of 64 million gas cars and scrappage of 42 million. So the net growth was 22 million. But by 2025, more gas cars will be scrapped than sold, meaning the overall fleet of gas cars will peak that year, and then will be in freefall by 2030. RMI’s research shows that by 2030, the gas fleet is likely to be falling at a rate of 40 to 70 million per year, or 3-7%.

And, the researchers say, since gas cars account for around 25% of global oil demand (and made up more than 33% of oil demand growth between 2010 and 2019), demand for oil is also going to freefall in the future, thanks to EV adoption and efficiency.

And here’s the exciting bombshell from this report: By the 2040s, RMI says that the oil demand from the car sector will fall to zero.

Kingsmill Bond, senior principal at RMI, said:

Electric vehicles are on track to dominate global car sales by 2030, signaling the endgame for the largest sector of oil demand.

And where cars lead, so the rest of transport will follow: Exponential change is spreading to two-wheelers across the Global South and to trucks in China.

This is good news for cutting emissions and improving public health. But it also shifts money from the hands of petrostates into the pockets of consumers.

Read more: Heat pumps are more efficient than oil and gas heating in subzero temps – Oxford study


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Lectric Ebikes may be launching a new XP 4 this week, and it could change everything

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Lectric Ebikes may be launching a new XP 4 this week, and it could change everything

Lectric Ebikes appears to be preparing for a major new product launch, teasing what looks like the next evolution of its wildly popular folding fat tire electric bike. Based on the clues, it looks like a new Lectric XP 4 could be inbound.

In a social media post released over the weekend, the company shared a minimalist graphic reading “XP4” along with the message “Tune in 5.6.2025 9:30AM PT.” That date – this Tuesday – suggests we’re just hours away from the big reveal of the Lectric XP 4.

If true, this would mark the next generation of the most successful electric bike in the U.S. market. The current model, the Lectric XP 3.0, has become an icon of accessible, budget-friendly electric mobility. Starting at just $999, the XP 3.0 offers a foldable frame, fat tires, a 500W motor, a rear rack, lights, and hydraulic brakes – all packed into a highly shippable design that arrives fully assembled. It’s the kind of package that has helped Lectric claim the title of best-selling e-bike brand in the U.S. for several years in a row.

With the XP 3.0 still going strong, the teaser raises plenty of questions. Will the XP 4.0 be a modest update or a major leap forward? Could we see new features like torque-sensing pedal assist, a location tracking option, or upgraded performance? Or is Lectric preparing a more comfort-oriented variant, maybe even with upgraded suspension or even more accessories included standard?

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The teaser image, which features stylized stripes in grey, blue, and black, may hold some clues. One theory is that the colors represent new trim options or component upgrades. Another possibility is that Lectric is preparing multiple variants of the XP 4.0 – perhaps targeting commuters, adventurers, and off-road riders with purpose-built versions. We took the liberty of a bit of rampant speculation late last year, so perhaps that’s now worth a revisit.

At the same time though, Lectric’s penchant for launching new models at unbelievably affordable prices has never run up against such strong pricing headwinds as those posed by uncertainty in the current US-global trade war fueled by rapidly changing tariffs for imported goods.

lectric xp 3.0 hydraulic
Previous versions of the Lectric XP e-bike line have seen sky-high sales

Whatever the case, Lectric’s knack for surprising the industry with high-value, customer-focused e-bikes means expectations will be high. The brand has built a loyal following by delivering reliable performance at a price point that few can match, and any major update to the XP lineup is likely to ripple across the market.

As a young and energetic e-bike company, Lectric is also known for throwing impressive parties around the launch of new models. It looks like I may need to hop on a red-eye to Phoenix so I can see for myself – and so I can bring you all along, of course.

Be sure to tune in Tuesday at 9:30AM PT to see what Lectric has in store – and you can bet we’ll have all the details and first impressions as soon as they drop.

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U.S. crude oil prices fall more than 4% after OPEC+ agrees to surge production in June

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U.S. crude oil prices fall more than 4% after OPEC+ agrees to surge production in June

Logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 4% on Sunday, after OPEC+ agreed to surge production for a second month.

U.S. crude was down $2.49, or 4.27%, to $55.80 a barrel shortly after trading opened. Global benchmark Brent fell $2.39, or 3.9%, to $58.90 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen more than 20% this year.

The eight producers in the group, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed on Saturday to increase output by another 411,000 barrels per day in June. The decision comes a month after OPEC+ surprised the market by agreeing to surge production in May by the same amount.

The June production hike is nearly triple the 140,000 bpd that Goldman Sachs had originally forecast. OPEC+ is bringing more than 800,000 bpd of additional supply to the market over the course of two months.

Oil prices in April posted the biggest monthly loss since 2021, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have raised fears of a recession that will slow demand at the same time that OPEC+ is quickly increasing supply.

Oilfield service firms such as Baker Hughes and SLB are expecting investment in exploration and production to decline this year due to the weak price environment.

“The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels,” Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call on April 25.

Oil majors Chevron and Exxon reported first-quarter earnings last week that fell compared to the same period in 2024 due to lower oil prices.

Goldman is forecasting that U.S. crude and Brent prices will average $59 and $63 per barrel, respectively, this year.

Catch up on the latest energy news from CNBC Pro:

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Chicago plans more, and more equitable public charging as EV sales climb

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Chicago plans more, and more equitable public charging as EV sales climb

Electric vehicles’ share of the market continues to climb in America’s second city, with BEV registrations up more than 50% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period last year. Great news, but charging hasn’t up – but a new plan from Chicago Department of Transportation aims to build up enough infrastructure for the city to keep up.

In a bid to keep up with the rapid growth of EVs, Chicago Department of Transportation (CDOT is currently seeking public feedback on a plan called “Chicago Moves Electric Framework.” The city’s first such plan, it outlines initiatives that include a curbside charging pilot through the city’s utility, ComEd, and expanded charging access in key areas throughout the city.

Unlike other such plans, however, the new plan aims to focus on bringing electric vehicle charging to EIEC and low income communities, too.

“Through this framework, we are setting clear goals and identifying solutions that reflect the voices of our residents, communities, and regional partners,” said CDOT Commissioner Tom Carney. “By prioritizing equity and public input, we’re creating a roadmap for electric transportation that serves every neighborhood and helps drive down emissions across Chicago.”

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Neighborhoods on the south and west sides of Chicago experience a disproportionate amount of air pollution and diesel emissions, largely due to vehicle emissions according to CDOT. Despite that, most of Chicago’s public charging stations are clustered in higher-income areas while just 7.8% are in environmental justice neighborhoods that face higher environmental burdens.

“Too often, communities facing the greatest economic and transportation barriers also experience the most air pollution,” explains Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. “By prioritizing investments in historically underserved areas and making clean transportation options more affordable and accessible, we can improve both mobility and public health.”

The Framework identifies other near-term policy objectives, as well – such as streamlining the EV charger installation process for businesses and residents and implementing “Low-Emission Zones” in areas disproportionately impacted by air pollution by limiting, or even restricting, access to conventional medium- and heavy-duty vehicles during peak hours.

The Chicago Moves Electric Framework includes the installation of Level 2 and DC fast charging stations in public locations such as libraries and Chicago’s Midway Airport, “supporting not only personal EVs but also electric taxis, ride-hail and commercial fleets.”

Chicago has a goal of installing 2,500 public passenger EV charging stations and electrifying the city’s entire municipal vehicle fleet by 2035.

Electrek’s Take

Chicago Drives Electric | ComEd Press Conference
ComEd press conference at Chicago Drives Electric, 2024; by the author.

I hate to sound like a bed-wetting liberal here, guys, but Chicago is getting EVs absolutely right with big utility incentives on both vehicles and infrastructure, a governor willing to stand behind smart environmental policy, and a solid push for more and better infrastructure in the areas where they’ll do the most good. They’re even thinking of the children.

Here’s hoping more cities follow suit.

SOURCE: ComEd, via Smart Cities Dive; featured image by EVgo.

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