As EV demand rises, here’s what the future holds for gas cars
As EV demand rises, this is what the future will look like for gas cars, according to new data analysis by RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute).
RMI, who worked in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund, writes in a report released today called “X-change: Cars, The end of the ICE age” that the market share of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars is going to fall to a level of 14-38% of sales by 2030.
RMI says that gas car sales peaked in 2017 and have been falling at 5% a year since then. By the end of this decade, gas car sales will fall to between 14 million and 38 million cars a year.
But it’s not just about just new gas car purchases – it’s also about what happens to gas cars already on the road, because the gas car stock is a function of gross sales and the scrappage of existing cars.
RMI assumes the life of a car to be around 15 years. Over the past decade, RMI writes, the number of gas cars scrapped annually has been between 40 and 50 million. But using historical data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), RMI estimates that the gas car scrappage rate will climb to between 60 and 70 million annually by 2030, based on the number of gas car sales 15 years ago, which was at around 80 million. (Scrappage is another recycling challenge that is going to need to be urgently addressed.)
RMI gives the example that in 2022, there were sales of 64 million gas cars and scrappage of 42 million. So the net growth was 22 million. But by 2025, more gas cars will be scrapped than sold, meaning the overall fleet of gas cars will peak that year, and then will be in freefall by 2030. RMI’s research shows that by 2030, the gas fleet is likely to be falling at a rate of 40 to 70 million per year, or 3-7%.
And, the researchers say, since gas cars account for around 25% of global oil demand (and made up more than 33% of oil demand growth between 2010 and 2019), demand for oil is also going to freefall in the future, thanks to EV adoption and efficiency.
And here’s the exciting bombshell from this report: By the 2040s, RMI says that the oil demand from the car sector will fall to zero.
Kingsmill Bond, senior principal at RMI, said:
Electric vehicles are on track to dominate global car sales by 2030, signaling the endgame for the largest sector of oil demand.
And where cars lead, so the rest of transport will follow: Exponential change is spreading to two-wheelers across the Global South and to trucks in China.
This is good news for cutting emissions and improving public health. But it also shifts money from the hands of petrostates into the pockets of consumers.
Read more: Heat pumps are more efficient than oil and gas heating in subzero temps – Oxford study
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If you’re considering going electric, May will be a great time to score a deal on an EV lease. Automakers are slashing lease prices on some of the most popular EVs to move inventory – here are four standouts.
Nissan Ariya SUV
The Nissan Ariya SUV has an MSRP of $41,805. Its lease term is 36 months, with $4,409 due at signing and a mileage allowance of 10,000 a year. Monthly payment? A sweet $129!
Nissan cut the 2025 Ariya Engage’s price by $144 in April, so it now has an effective monthly cost of $251 – that’s seriously affordable for an electric SUV. If you’re already a Nissan driver, then you’re going to get an even better deal, because Nissan is offering a $1,000 loyalty discount on the Ariya, which brings its effective cost down to $224 per month.
CarsDirect, which sniffed out this deal, thinks this Ariya deal will be in place until Memorial Day, so take advantage of tariff-free pricing while you can.
Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Nissan Ariya in stock. –trusted affiliate copy
Honda Prologue SUV
The Honda Prologue SUV has an MSRP of $48,850. Its lease term is 36 months, with $1,399 due at signing and a mileage allowance of 10,000 a year. The monthly payment on the Prologue is $239.
The 2024 Honda Prologue has up to $18,800 in rebates, and the price includes a $1,000 lease loyalty discount or conquest offer. In California and other ZEV states, the EX has an effective cost of just $278 per month; in other parts of the US, pricing will be around $30 higher. This offer ends July 7.
Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Honda Prologue in stock. –trusted affiliate copy
Tesla Model 3
The Tesla Model 3 has an MSRP of $43,880. Its best lease term is 24 months, with $1,044 due at signing and a mileage allowance of 10,000 a year. The monthly payment on the Model 3 is $349.
The 2025 Tesla Model 3 still has the $7,500 federal government EV rebate. Several months ago, Tesla reduced the amount due at signing on all Model 3s. And for those who want to lease a Long Range Model 3, the effective cost can be as low as $393 per month.
You can lease the Model 3 for 36 months, but the folks at CarsDirect found that the better deal will be had on 24-month leases. They compared the Model 3’s MSRP to the 2025 Lexus IS 300 F Sport’s MSRP, which is nearly identical, and the Model 3 was around 30% cheaper to lease.
Acura ZDX
The 2024 Acura ZDX has an MSRP of $65,850. Its best lease term is 36 months, with $4,699 due at signing and a mileage allowance of 7,500 a year. The monthly payment on the ZDX is $299.
The 2024 ZDX is Acura’s cheapest vehicle to lease because it features up to $29,450 in lease cash. However, the best deal is limited to California and ZEV states. If you cash in on a loyalty discount or conquest cash, the effective cost is $430 per month. This offer runs til June 30.
Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Acura ZDX in stock. –trusted affiliate copy
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Ford (F) reported its first-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street’s revenue and EPS expectations. However, with Trump’s auto tariffs, Ford is suspending full-year guidance. Here’s a breakdown of Ford’s Q1 2025 earnings
Ford Q1 2025 earnings preview
After crosstown rival General Motors cut its full-year financial guidance last week, investors are waiting to see if Ford will follow suit.
Ford’s previous 2025 forecast called for EBIT of $7 billion to $8.5 billion and capital expenditures between $8 billion and $9 billion.
The biggest threat is Trump’s new auto tariffs, which include a 25% duty on imported vehicles and many parts. Since Ford builds a greater percentage of vehicles in the US than any other major automaker, outside of Tesla, it isn’t expected to see as big of an impact.
CEO Jim Farley called it “an opportunity for Ford,” during an interview with CNN last week, saying the company has a “different footprint, a different exposure for tariffs.”
Ford imports around 21% of the vehicles it sells in the US, while GM imports around 46%. According to Estimize, Wall St expects Ford to post Q1 EPS of $0.0 on revenue of $38.02 billion.
The company reports earnings for each of its three business units, Ford Blue (gas-powered vehicles), Model e (electric vehicles), and Ford Pro (commercial and software business).
In the fourth quarter, Ford’s EV unit (Model e) lost another $1.4 billion while Pro and Blue each reported an adjusted EBIT of $1.6 billion.
Financial breakdown
Ford beat Wall Street estimates, reporting first-quarter revenue of $40.7 billion with an adjusted EPS of 0.49.
- Q1 2025 Revenue: $40.7 billion vs $38.02 billion expected.
- Q1 2025 Adjusted EPS: $0.49 vs $0.0 expected.
The company posted adjusted EBIT of $1 billion, down 63% from Q1 2024. Ford said its first-quarter EBIT suffered a nearly $200 million hit from added tariff costs, primarily in Ford Blue and Ford Pro.
Ford Pro generated an EBIT of $1.3 billion, Ford Blue $96 million, and Ford Model e reported an EBIT loss of $849 million.
For Model e, the company is focused on improving gross margins and “exercising a disciplined approach to investments in battery facilities and next-generation products.” Although still a nearly $1 billion loss, it’s still a $500 million improvement from Q1 2024.
Ford said higher Model e revenue was driven by new EVs launching in Europe, like the electric Explorer and Capri.
The company said its “Power Promise” promotion, which includes a free home charger and several other benefits, has helped drive demand in the US.
Although it’s tracking within its previous full-year adjusted EBIT guidance of between $7 billion and $8.5 billion, Ford is suspending full-year guidance due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.
Ford estimates the full-year gross cost of tariffs to be around $2.5 billion. It expects a tariff-related net adverse adjusted EBIT impact of about $1.5 billion for the full year 2025.
Ford also extended its “From America, For America” campaign last week. The promo includes employee pricing on most 2024 and 2025 models and now runs through July 4.
Check back for more info from Ford’s first quarter conference call. Ford is also hosting its annual meeting on Thursday, May 8, where we should learn more about its EV plans and how it will navigate the new tariffs.
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