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A prolonged coordinated strike by the United Auto Workers union against the Detroit Three automakers could cut production by thousands, potentially pushing up vehicle prices and exacerbating supply-chain disruptions, analysts said.

The auto industry is on edge as the current four-year contracts between the UAW and General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis for hourly US workers expire on midnight Sept. 14, after which the union’s chief has warned of a possible coordinated strike.

New vehicle prices may rise by less than 2% if the strike lasts about two weeks, according to automotive consulting firm J.D. Power.

“Everyone’s going to see higher prices regardless of the company you buy from if it (strike) continues for more than two weeks,” said Tyson Jominy, vice president, data and analytics at J.D. Power.

He added that companies such as Toyota, Honda and Volkswagen may also benefit if the domestic brands quickly run out of inventory to sell.

Jominy said the used car market, which quickly follows the underlying trends of the new market, may see a greater impact on prices if there are fewer substitutes for buying a vehicle.

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson said strikes at all three automakers would cut North American auto production by 150,000 units per week, resulting in higher vehicle prices as inventories deplete.

That would mean an end to the trend of cooling vehicle prices in recent months, at a time when inflation continues to pinch US consumers.

“Even if the UAW continues to negotiate beyond its deadline, the lack of a deal and threat of a strike should discourage auto dealers from offering discounts on their existing inventory and drive an uptick in vehicle prices,” J.P. Morgan insurance analyst Jimmy Bhullar said.

Deutsche Bank previously estimated that a strike would hit earnings at each affected automaker by about $400 million to $500 million per week of production.

GM and Ford are also in the midst of a multi-billion dollar EV transition and brokerage Wedbush estimates adoption of some major UAW proposals to result in an increase in the price of electric vehicles rolling out over the next 12 to 18 months.

“(Ford CEO Jim) Farley and (GM CEO Mary) Barra both face some tough decisions ahead and find themselves with the back against the wall,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note.

The resulting disruptions from any strikes are also likely to benefit EV leader Tesla, industry experts said. Some dealers are also expected to gain from shortages of vehicles.

“The big thing to keep in mind (is) that (the) UAW strike could help stabilize our margins, which is quite nice,” auto retailer Lithia Motors’ CEO Bryan DeBoer said during a July analyst call.

Another large dealer, AutoNation, previously said it had built up inventories from domestic manufacturers, which should provide some cushion.

However, UAW president Shawn Fain rejected the idea that worker wages were responsible for auto prices going up in the last few years.

In a video released on Thursday titled “Here’s what the Big Three and the corporate media’s NOT telling you about car prices,” Fain said “corporate greed” was responsible for rising car prices.

“In the last four years, the average price of a new car is up 30%, meanwhile auto worker wages have risen a meager 6%,” Fain said.

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Sports

Guardians overtake Tigers with historical surge

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Guardians overtake Tigers with historical surge

CLEVELAND — George Valera hit a two-run homer in the third inning, Jose Ramírez had a two-run double in the seventh and the Cleveland Guardians became the first major league team to overcome a deficit of 15½ games and take the lead in either division or league play, beating the Detroit Tigers 5-1 on Wednesday night.

Cleveland (86-72) has a one-game lead over Detroit (85-73) with four games to play. The Guardians also have the tiebreaker by taking the season series.

The 1914 Boston Braves were 15 games back in the National League on July 4 and rallied to win by 10½ games according to Elias Sports Bureau. Since baseball went to division play in 1969, the biggest deficit overcome was 14 games by the 1978 New York Yankees to win the AL East.

Tanner Bibee (12-11) won his third straight start and allowed only one run in six innings, extending the streak of Guardians starters allowing two or fewer runs to 19 games. They are the first since the 2019 Tampa Bay Rays to go at least 19 games.

Detroit has dropped eight straight and is out of first place for the first time since April 22, when the Guardians led by a half-game. Jack Flaherty (8-15) took the loss.

The Tigers took a 1-0 lead in the third when Parker Meadows‘ sacrifice fly drove in Dillon Dingler.

Brayan Rocchio led off the Cleveland third with a double and then scored when Valera’s drive appeared short of the wall in center before it was deflected off the glove of Meadows.

Ramírez broke it open in the eighth with a two-run double to right field that deflected off the glove of Detroit second baseman Gleyber Torres. He became the second player in Cleveland franchise history to reach 3,000 total bases. The other was Earl Averill with 3,201 from 1929 through ’41.

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Business

UK boosts pandemic readiness with new vaccine factory

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UK boosts pandemic readiness with new vaccine factory

A US vaccine firm has opened the first mRNA manufacturing plant in the UK, against a backdrop of increasing anti-jab rhetoric back home.

The new facility outside Oxford is part of a £1bn investment in the UK by Moderna, which specialises in mRNA.

The novel vaccine technology delivered some of the most effective and fastest-to-develop jabs during the COVID pandemic.

Several pharma companies, including Germany’s leading mRNA pioneer BioNTech, are now racing to develop new therapies.

Moderna says the plant will produce up to 100 million doses of its existing vaccine products each year. It has also been designed to scale-up production to 250 million doses a year in the event of a new disease outbreak.

“God-forbid, if there is another pandemic, we can switch the facility any day,” said Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel.

The UK investment deal was agreed by the previous government, but the plant’s opening is welcome relief for the current one.

In recent weeks, four major pharmaceutical companies have halted planned investments in the UK following disputes over drug pricing and profitability in the UK.

‘A great statement’

It also promises to restore domestic vaccine manufacturing capability in the UK, the lack of which was exposed when dangerous supply interruptions threatened the early COVID response.

“It’s a really fast way of getting new vaccines discovered,” said Lord Patrick Vallance, former chief scientist and now science minister.

“It’s also a great statement of confidence in the UK that [Moderna has] chosen to base themselves here.”

Health Secretary Wes Streeting attended the opening
Image:
Health Secretary Wes Streeting attended the opening

Moderna: UK ‘still believes’ in vaccines

The mRNA molecule is the same used by our cells to order the production of new proteins, and allows vaccines to be produced using just the genetic code of a virus or other biological target.

Moderna’s investment decision pre-dated Donald Trump’s return to the White House, but the Moderna CEO said its operation in the UK – a country that “still believes in vaccination” – may pay dividends if anti-vaccine rhetoric translates into a lack of demand for its products in the US.

“If there is less appetite by governments around the world, including in the US, to use vaccines, we might invest less in vaccines,” said Mr Bancel.

“We have to invest where there’s a demand for our products.”

Read more: All health claims made by Trump – and what experts say

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Is US politics fuelling a deadly measles outbreak?

The UK presents other attractions for the company which has suffered substantial losses as demand for its COVID vaccine has fallen.

It’s betting that leading UK universities and a large patient population will make for successful clinical trials.

The company has ongoing NHS trials of new jabs against seasonal flu, a combination COVID and flu vaccine, cancer vaccines and mRNA therapies for two inherited childhood diseases.

Moderna says it is now the largest private commercial sponsor of clinical trials in the UK.

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Politics

US Senate Finance Committee to discuss crypto tax matters next week

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US Senate Finance Committee to discuss crypto tax matters next week

US Senate Finance Committee to discuss crypto tax matters next week

A Coinbase executive and three other crypto tax and policy specialists will meet with the Senate Finance Committee next Wednesday to discuss digital asset tax matters.

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