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Labour has set out a major plank of its pre-election foreign and security policy which is worthy of close scrutiny – even though some of it is simply old news.

The headlines are Sir Keir Starmer’s plan for migration – treating people-smugglers like terrorists in as far as this is practical – but the most eye-catching part is his willingness to nudge the UK closer to the EU’s orbit, and be upfront about unpopular trade-offs this will trigger.

This matters.

Politics Hub: Sunak makes claim about migration plans as war of words continues

Until now, as leader Sir Keir has adopted a somewhat cool tone towards the EU, to the frustration of some in his party and continuing to reject rejoining the single market and customs union.

Focusing on the shortcomings of Boris Johnson’s deal rather than big picture principles, this approach peaked in December 2022 when the Labour leader said rejoining the EU’s single market would not boost growth. Any other strategy could cost him amongst Brexit voters in the Red Wall was the belief.

Today marks the first interesting departure.

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As part of the package to tackle migration, Sir Keir has said he wants a returns agreement with the EU to help tackle migration.

This is no surprise – the returns policy itself is actually nearly a year old and shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper has been talking about the need for an EU returns agreement for much of this year.

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Labour plan to ‘smash the gangs’

What is new is Sir Keir’s explicit commitment to look at migrant quotas in exchange for such a deal.

Asked by The Times if he would be willing to accept the “quid pro quo” of migrant quotas in exchange for a deal, he said: “That would be part of any discussions and negotiations with Europe.”

This is a row the Labour leader is now happy to have.

One Labour source said there was a willingness to be braver about discussions involving the EU: “What’s different now is that we are happy to have a talk about what’s practical.

“This is not a discussion about going back to the single market and customs union.

“But we don’t have a good security deal and that’s mad both for the UK and the EU.”

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PM on Labour migration plans

There has been a discussion for some weeks amongst certain Labour figures about how Sir Keir’s approach to the EU should evolve.

Not least because the polls shift against Brexit – YouGov suggests that Labour are now finally trusted as much as the Tories to handle Brexit, and 61% of people said in July that Brexit was a failure. This appears to be the first step by Sir Keir in a journey.

The issue is not straightforward for the Tories either.

They have used today’s words by Sir Keir to claim any “quota” deal could mean up to 120,000 migrants a year arriving, making the UK a “dumping ground” for the EU.

Yet Rishi Sunak’s government has also long been openly and explicitly seeking a returns agreement with the EU.

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Today Number 10 is emphatic that they would never and have never been open to accepting a quota of EU migrants as part of a returns deal, with others in government pointing out that Rwanda would make that unnecessary.

Yet unhelpfully for Mr Sunak, this red line was not made explicit even a month ago when Number 10 was briefing they wanted a deal with the EU.

This inconvenience will do little to dampen the attacks on Sir Keir, however, with Tories adamant he has made a big strategic blunder today.

This is a fight both sides appear to want to have.

Can the Tories use this moment to convince voters Sir Keir is an EU fanatic who wants to open the migration floodgates?

Or does the Labour leader emerge as the grown-up willing to talk about potentially unpalatable trade-offs?

It’s unclear quite where this ends with voters.

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3 reasons why stablecoin growth thrives globally — Will US follow under Trump?

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3 reasons why stablecoin growth thrives globally — Will US follow under Trump?

Stablecoin use in emerging markets soars despite the absence of crypto-friendly regulations and basic banking infrastructure. Will the US catch up to this trend?

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Australia ‘should be prepared to contribute’ to securing Ukraine’s freedom, former PM says

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Australia 'should be prepared to contribute' to securing Ukraine's freedom, former PM says

A former Australian prime minister has said his country should be “prepared to make a contribution” to protect the freedom of Ukraine.

Tony Abbott told Sky News’ Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge that no country “will be safe against a bully” if Vladimir Putin wins the war.

He called on Britain to take the lead in protecting Ukraine even without a US backstop – but said all the free countries of the world should be “prepared to make a stand”.

Politics Live: Tump warned against ‘blight’ on his presidency with Russia deal

Mr Abbott, who led the conservative Liberal Party, said: “I personally think that Australia should be prepared to make a contribution to the long term freedom and security of Ukraine.

“The Ukrainians have been fighting for the freedom of everyone. And if Putin is able to snuff out the freedom and the independence of Ukraine, what smaller country anywhere is safe against a bully?

“Is Taiwan safe? Is Australia, for that matter, safe? Is Japan safe?

“This is why it’s important that whatever the Americans ultimately do, the free countries of the world are prepared to make a stand in support of the freedom of Ukraine.”

It comes after Sir Keir Starmer urged America to provide a “security guarantee” to deter Putin and said he is prepared to send British troops to Ukraine if a peace deal is made.

The UK prime minister was speaking following a summit of continental leaders that was arranged by French President Emmanuel Macron, after Donald Trump shocked the world by arranging bilateral talks between the US and Russia – excluding Europe and Ukraine.

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US must provide ‘backstop’ to deter Russia

Mr Abbott said Mr Trump “will blight his second presidency” if he hands a victory to Putin.

“If the result of anything the American president does is to leave Ukraine broken, defenceless, and ultimately a colony of imperial Russia, I think that would be a tragedy,” he said.

He said Sir Keir was “sensible and brave” to consider sending peace keeping troops, but he should be prepared to do this without America’s help, and on its own if necessary.

He said: “Britain is a substantial power. After the United States, it’s the second most powerful country, notwithstanding the current weakness of the British Army. And it should be prepared to take a stand for freedom by protecting Ukraine.

“Britain should be prepared to lead here and it should not expect yet again to ride on America’s coat tails.”

Mr Trump has said the US no longer sees the defence of Europe as its primary concern in a major change of policy since the Second World War.

It has prompted calls for the UK and other NATO countries to increase defence spending.

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Speaking after the Paris summit on Monday night, Sir Keir said a “US security guarantee” is the only path to peace in Ukraine.

But he also insisted “Europe must play its role”, adding: “I’m prepared to consider committing British forces on the ground alongside others if there is a lasting peace agreement.

“So I will go to Washington next week to meet President Trump and discuss what we see as the key elements of a lasting peace.”

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However, despite three hours of emergency talks, European leaders left the meeting without a common view.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the idea of deploying European peacekeepers as “completely premature” and said it was “completely the wrong time to have this discussion”.

And Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen said her country was “open to discussing many things” but stressed her nation was still very far off deploying its own soldiers to Ukraine.

Watch the full interview on the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge from 6.30pm

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Public services prepare for up to 11% cuts – as defence secretary says ‘we must rearm’

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Public services prepare for up to 11% cuts - as defence secretary says 'we must rearm'

Some government departments have been asked to make savings which would amount to a 11% cut in spending – as the prime minister faces calls to raise defence spending.

Sky News has been told that departments which do not have their spending protected have been asked to model two options – “flat” spending, which, adjusted for inflation, amounts to a cut; and a deeper reduction amounting to 11% in real terms.

No final decisions on departmental spending will be taken until the Treasury’s spending review, which sets departmental budgets for three years, and will be completed in June. Decisions on possible spending cuts by departments have been described by sources as “incredibly difficult”.

Politics latest: Trump warned against ‘blight’ on his presidency with Russia deal

It comes amid calls to increase defence spending, in the light of the Trump administration’s warning to European nations to shoulder their own security – and send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.

Sir Keir Starmer has promised to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP but has not set out when this will be achieved. Ministers say a defence review to be published this spring will set out a “roadmap” to it.

Those departments with their budgets protected include the NHS, childcare and schools, defence and overseas aid at 0.5%.

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What could be hit?

This raises the prospect of more severe cuts for unprotected departments including local government – which is responsible for social care – justice, including courts and prisons; the environment, Home Office and culture.

British Army Apache helicopters on a military exercise last May. Pic: Reuters
Image:
British Army Apache helicopters on a military exercise last May. Pic: Reuters

John Healey the defence secretary, announced a shake-up of defence spending at a speech in Westminster, to focus on “war readiness and deterrence”. He said: “At this time, we must rearm Britain.”

He said: “The decisions that we make right now over the coming weeks will not only define the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, but the security of our world for a generation to come. And the nature of government means dealing with these challenges”.

Mr Healey would not say how quickly defence spending would rise but said conversations over the past week with the US defence secretary Pete Hegseth were about the need to go further.

He said the message was “not new”, adding: “We know as European nations we need to step up on European security, on defence spending and on Ukraine, especially over the last year we’ve been doing just that. What Pete Hegseth accelerated was that recognition that we’re stepping up, but we must go further.”

Raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP would cost ‘£6bn a year’

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said that increasing defence spending from its current level of 2.3% to 2.5% would mean finding approximately an extra £6bn a year by the end of the parliament.

He said: “Six billion in our overall budget is not enormous. The problem facing the government is that the fiscal situation is so tight, even finding that kind of money is going to be difficult.

“The last government and this one have increased spending quite a bit across quite a range of public services since 2020. So it’s not that we’re coming right off the back of austerity, but we are still in a position where a lot of government departments, the Ministry of Justice, for example, have got less money now than I had all the way back in 2010.

“So it’s still going to be hard for a lot of these areas to swallow any further cuts or even to cope with flat spending.”

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A Treasury spokesperson said: “The chancellor has asked all departments to deliver savings and efficiencies of 5% of their current budget as part of the first zero-based spending review in seventeen years and every pound of government spending is being interrogated, to root out waste and get the best value for taxpayers.

“National security is a foundation of this government’s plan for change, which is why we have increased defence spending by almost £3bn while delivering the highest pay rise for our armed forces in over 20 years.

“We will set out a path to 2.5% once the strategic defence review has concluded. We will not give a running commentary while the review is undertaken.”

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