In 1645, the stronghold of Caerphilly’s famous medieval castle was besieged and captured by the forces of Oliver Cromwell.

And as the polls closed at 10pm after a bruising by-election battle, the Labour stronghold of Caerphilly was in grave danger of being captured by the forces of Nigel Farage and Reform UK in 2025.

Famous for the three Cs of coal, cheese and its castle, Caerphilly has been represented at Westminster by Labour MPs for more than a century and in Cardiff since 1999, when the Welsh Assembly was created.

That’s about to change. Labour’s vote – once as impregnable as the castle – has crumbled like Caerphilly cheese, and the Tories, Lib Dems and Green Party are nowhere.

But Reform’s UK hopes of a famous victory in Caerphilly could be dashed by another political party hopeful of making a huge breakthrough in Wales, Plaid Cymru, second to Labour in last year’s general election and in every election for the Senedd since devolution.

As he arrived at the count at Caerphilly Leisure Centre shortly before the polls closed, Plaid Cymru’s veteran candidate, Lindsay Whittle, 72, was remarkably cheerful. Asked if he was going to win, he declared, punching the air: “I certainly hope so!”

An opinion poll in the constituency last week put support for Reform UK at 42%, Plaid Cymru 38%, Labour a dismal 12%, the Conservatives in lost deposit territory at 4%, along with the Greens at 3% and the Lib Dems barely registering at 1%.

Unlike Cromwell’s forces, who arrived in Caerphilly on horseback nearly 400 years ago, Mr Farage galloped into the constituency on polling day in a fast car, in what was his third visit of the by-election campaign to the constituency.

A victory for Mr Farage’s candidate, 30-year-old Llyr Powell, would leave Reform UK on the road to further triumphs and have an impact on UK politics far beyond the Welsh Valleys. It would be a pointer to massive Reform UK gains in local, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections next year.

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It would turn the mood of Labour MPs from its current gloom and trepidation into blind panic and would convince them – if they were not convinced already – that Mr Farage is on the march to Downing Street and many of the 2024 Labour intake will lose their seats at the next general election.

But let’s not rule out a Plaid victory. That would send shockwaves throughout Wales and be seen as a clear signal that Labour’s 26-year dominance of the Welsh government is about to come to an undignified end.

The only certainties tonight are humiliation for Labour and near-wipeout for the Conservatives and Lib Dems.

The only uncertainty is whether it’s Reform UK or Plaid Cymru whose troops – like Cromwell’s in 1645 – capture Labour’s Caerphilly stronghold.

The head teacher of the Southport attacker’s former school has told a public inquiry she felt like he was “building up to something”.

Joanne Hodson, head of The Acorns School in Ormskirk, said she had a “visceral sense of dread” that he would do something.

“I felt like something was going to happen and there was a level of agitation with direct challenges to staff, the way he was with other pupils. I felt like every day it was building and building and building,” she told the inquiry at Liverpool Town Hall.

Axel Rudakubana, then aged 17, killed six-year-old Bebe King, seven-year-old Elsie Dot Stancombe, and nine-year-old Alice da Silva Aguiar and attempted to murder 10 others at a Taylor Swift-themed dance class in Southport on 29 July last year.

He was later jailed for a minimum of 52 years.

Rudakubana, referred to during the public inquiry as AR, came to Ms Hodson’s school after he was permanently excluded from the Range High School, in Formby, due to taking knives to school in October 2019.

‘Devoid of any remorse’

Ms Hodson said she first met Rudakubana at his admissions meeting for the Acorns, when she asked him why he had taken a knife to his former school.

“He looked me in the eyes and said ‘to use it’. This is the only time in my career that a pupil has said this to me or behaved in a manner so devoid of any remorse,” she said.

“What also surprised me was that AR’s parents did not flinch at this comment.”

She said the parents saw Rudakubana “as the victim” and believed he had taken the knife to school as a response to being bullied.

His parents thought he was a “good boy” who never did anything wrong and that “any issues were someone else’s fault”, according to Ms Hodson.

Ms Hodson said she had feared Rudakubana was going to “bring something” to the Acorns.

Instead, he returned to the Range in December 2019 to assault another student with a hockey stick while carrying a knife in his bag.

‘Sinister undertone’

Ms Hodson described Rudakubana as the “most unusual” pupil she had experienced during her career, adding in a statement: “There was a sinister undertone and it was difficult to build rapport.

“He had no respect for authority and generally a lack of respect of other pupils and staff. He was insistent that his views alone were correct and everyone else was wrong. There was never any sense of remorse or accountability for his actions.”

In his education, health and care plan, it was noted there were concerns that Rudakubana said or did things which had been described as “sinister”, the inquiry heard.

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Ms Hodson said she was asking other agencies for help, but the word “sinister” was crossed out in the report and changed to “inappropriate” after professional views were submitted by the child and adolescent mental health service (CAMHS).

“I was challenged quite heavily and told no child should ever be described as sinister and as a professional I should not be using those words,” she said.

‘Let down’ by Prevent

Ms Hodson said school staff were concerned about Rudakubana attacking his peers and made three referrals about him to the government’s anti-terror programme Prevent.

The head teacher said staff felt “let down” after their third referral caused in the school’s relationship with Rudakubana and his father, but was not acted on by Prevent.

When Rudakubana made comments thought to be antisemitic in school in January 2022, teachers did not make another referral to Prevent, with Ms Hodson telling the inquiry: “On reflection, whilst I regret not submitting further Prevent referrals in 2022, I think by this point Acorns had lost faith that anything would be done.”

She said staff were concerned about Rudakubana being radicalised, but “he was so socially isolated that I could not conceive of the idea that he might attack a group of strangers, let alone young children”.

“The tragic events are so far removed from what I would have associated AR with in terms of risk,” Ms Hodson said.

The inquiry was adjourned until Monday.

A leaked letter, seen by Sky News, warns government that victims of the Post Office scandal find compensation schemes “worse than the original injustice”.

The letter was written by victims’ commissioner Baroness Newlove and sent to the Post Office minister Blair McDougall earlier this month.

“Far from offering catharsis,” she writes, “the compensation process was seen to be as bad as or even worse an experience than the initial investigation, prosecution and injustice itself.”

She adds that “hearing this from victims, time and again, shocked me”.

Victims told her that initial offers were “insultingly low” and that constant delays and requests for decades-old paperwork had left them offended and “distressed”.

Some described the process as “adversarial”, with Baroness Newlove comparing it to fighting an insurance company rather than receiving justice from the state.

The letter urges the government to abandon “commercial tactics” such as making low initial offers – approaches the Commissioner says are “not appropriate when dealing with traumatised victims”.

“It might be better to come back with a request for more information, rather than make an offer that is guaranteed to offend the victim,” she said.

The letter was sent on 3 October, shortly before the government outlined its official response to part one of the Horizon inquiry report.

It announced that it would accept most of the recommendations, including on redress, put forward by the chair of the inquiry Sir Wyn Williams.

In her four-page letter, Baroness Newlove also welcomes access to “free legal advice” to help victims with claims but calls for earlier cases to be reviewed.

She explains that where advice had not been available, some victims “might have been disadvantaged as a result”.

“Is it possible these early cases can be reviewed to ensure everyone has been treated fairly and equally?” she asks.

The letter also raises concerns that some current serving sub postmasters feel “under pressure” from managers not to pursue claims, urging the department to ensure this “is not the case”.

Baroness Newlove also relays victims’ frustration that Fujitsu, the company behind the faulty Horizon system, continues to work with the government and asks whether this is “an issue the government is looking to address”.

Post Office Minister Blair McDougall said in response to the letter: “We pay tribute to all the postmasters who have suffered from the Horizon scandal, which is why we have increased the total amount paid to postmasters fivefold to over £1 billion as part of our ongoing commitment to deliver justice to victims as swiftly as possible.

“Since this letter was sent we set out our response to Sir Wyn Williams’ inquiry proposals, which will help us further speed up claims, and which offers legal advice to sub postmasters.

“I look forward to working with postmasters in making further improvements to the redress schemes so that they get the compensation they deserve.”

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A Post Office spokesperson said: “We have and continue to actively support all Post Office colleagues, but particularly those with direct contact with Postmasters, to encourage them to submit a claim to the Horizon Shortfall Scheme if they believe they suffered losses in the past.

“Our Area Managers are playing a pivotal role in guiding Postmasters on how to submit a claim and signposting where there’s additional support to do so. We have a dedicated claimant support team available on the phone to discuss options, provide support, and answer any questions a Postmaster may have so that we can begin to process their claim right away.

“We would welcome contact with the Victim Commissioner directly so that we can understand more about what they have been told and to ensure all of us work together so that current and former postmasters get their claims in as soon as possible.

“To assist this, we will shortly be launching a national advertising campaign urging any current or former Postmaster who has not submitted a claim to do so as soon as possible and by 31 January 2026.”

A Fujitsu spokesperson said in a statement: “We continue to work with government to ensure we adhere to the voluntary restrictions we put in place regarding bidding for new contracts while the Post Office Inquiry is ongoing, and we are engaged with government regarding Fujitsu’s contribution to compensation.”