In an aerial view, oil storage tanks are shown at the Enterprise Sealy Station on August 28, 2023 in Sealy, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Oil prices climbed to their highest level of the year this week, extending a rally that has put a return to $100 a barrel sharply into focus.
Indeed, some analysts believe crude prices could hit this milestone before year-end.
International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $93.90 a barrel on Friday morning in London, around 0.2% higher. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures, meanwhile, stood at $90.41, almost 0.3% higher for the session.
Both Brent and WTI settled at their highest respective levels of the year on Thursday. The oil contracts are sharply higher month-to-date and remain firmly on track to notch their third consecutive positive week.
The price rally comes amid growing expectations of tighter supply after Saudi Arabia and Russia moved to draw down global inventories and extend their oil output cuts through to the end of the year.
OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia said on Sept. 5 that it would extend its 1 million barrel per day production cut through to year-end, with non-OPEC leader Russia pledging to reduce oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. Both countries have said they will review their voluntary cuts on a monthly basis.
Analysts at Bank of America have indicated they now believe oil prices could soon spike beyond triple digits.
“Should OPEC+ maintain the ongoing supply cuts through year-end against Asia’s positive demand backdrop, we now believe Brent prices could spike past $100/bbl before 2024,” analysts led by Francisco Blanch said Tuesday in a research note.
Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM said a jump toward the $100 milestone was “plausible,” citing production constraints from Saudi Arabia and Russia, upcoming refinery maintenance, the structural shortage of diesel in Europe and a growing consensus that the current cycle of tightening will soon come to an end.
“Nonetheless, such a rally also entails renewed inflationary pressure,” Varga told CNBC on Friday. This was reflected, he said, in this week’s U.S. inflation data and the rise in consumer spending, which indicated that interest rates may stay higher for longer and could have a negative impact on both economic and oil demand growth.
“For this reason, I believe that any spike towards $100 will be short-lived,” he added.
‘A significant supply shortfall’
The International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s production constraints would likely result in a “substantial market deficit” through the fourth quarter.
The world’s leading energy authority said in its monthly oil report that output curbs by OPEC and non-OPEC members of over 2.5 million barrels per day since the start of the year had so far been offset by members outside the OPEC+ alliance — such as the U.S. and Brazil.
“From September onwards, the loss of OPEC+ production, led by Saudi Arabia, will drive a significant supply shortfall through the fourth quarter,” the IEA said.
Christyan Malek, global head of energy strategy and head of EMEA oil and gas equity research at JPMorgan, said he believes the price of oil is likely to trade in a range of $80 to $100 in the short term — and at around $80 over the long term.
“As we go into next year, it will be very dependent on how we see China evolve … what does the US do? And how does shale respond?” Malek said Monday, noting the U.S. appears to have limited options if it is to try to drive oil and gasoline prices lower ahead of next year’s pivotal presidential election.
“I think for us one of the important data points for this year as a whole is that we tested $70. You have to test the marginal costs, we can all predict it, and we got there. We got to $70, and it bounced off so with that marginal cost, we’re looking at a much higher long-term price,” he added.
A lone pumpjack located in the middle of a large solar array outside of Bakersfield, Kern County, California.
Citizens Of The Planet | Universal Images Group | Getty Images
Not everyone believes oil prices are destined for an imminent return to $100, however. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the crude sector looks increasingly overbought in the near-term and appears in need of a pullback.
“We do not join the $100 per barrel camp but will not rule out a relatively short period where Brent could trade above $90,” Hansen said in a research note published Sept. 8.
“From a technical perspective, Brent has been in a bullish uptrend since July and needs to hold support at $89 as a break may trigger long liquidation towards $87.5 from traders who bought the production cut extension news,” he added.
“However, the medium-term uptrend is still firm with trendline support near $85, potentially being the bottom of a new higher range supported by OPEC’s active management of supply.”
— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
UPDATE: we’ve got a few new additions for the closing days of 2024, including sweet deals on the Mustang Mach-E GT (above), Toyota bZ4X, and more!
As I was putting this December list together, I realized there were plenty of ways for me to present this information. “Best EVs to park under a Christmas tree ..?” Too opinion based. “EVs with the biggest discounts ..?” Too much research. In the end, I decided to list these 0% financing deals in alphabetical order, by make.
And, trust me: they’ll all look great with a big red bow on them. Enjoy!
Acura
The new-for-2024 Acura ZDX uses a GM Ultium battery and drive motors, but the styling, interior, and infotainment software are all Honda. What that means is that you’ll get a solidly-built EV with GM levels of parts support and Honda levels of fit, finish, and quality control. All that plus Apple CarPlay and 0% financing for 24-72 months makes this (arguably) the best Ultium-based sporty crossover yet.
The big Ultium-based EVs from GM’s dedicated truck brand are impressive beats, with lightning-quick 0-60 acceleration and on-road handling that seems to defy the laws of physics once you understand that these are, essentially, medium-duty trucks. If you’re a fan of heavy metal, you’ll definitely want to stop by your local GMC dealer and give the Hummer EV and Sierra Denali EV a test drive.
Hyundai
One of my all-time favorite retro rides, this Hyundai Pony/Lancia Delta-inspired Hyundai IONIQ 5 combines practical five-passenger packaging and a light, airy interior with serious driving fun. If they sold it in bright white with Martini decals from the factory, I’d already have two.
Kia
If you were waiting for a three-row SUV from a mainstream brand with a great warranty and normal doors, you’ve probably already checked out the Kia EV9. You’re not alone. Kia keeps setting EV sales records, and the EV9 is helping to drive those sales forward … but the EV9 isn’t the only battery-powered Kia that’s drawing fans.
On the sportier side of the dealership, the Kia EV6 offers supercar-baiting levels of straight-line performance in the top GT trims – and even the base models offer a rewarding experience behind the steering wheel. What’s more, with an updated model coming for 2025, the ’24 models are ripe for the picking.
Nissan
The Nissan Ariya is a victim – and, frankly, it deserves better than its status as a heavily discounted also-ran in the five passenger crossover race, if only because Nissan has been flying the flag of electrification since the launch of the original LEAF EV since 2010 two years before Tesla launched its Model S in 2012. Despite the head start, though, Nissan never gained enough momentum to stay ahead in the EV race.
I drove the car at Chicago Drives Electric a few weeks ago, and it seemed like it was well worth the (discounted) price to me. With 0% financing for 72 months like I’m seeing advertised all over my news feeds? The Ariya is a better deal than ever.
Subaru
Despite being something of a slow seller, this mechanical twin of the Toyota bZ4X EV seems like a solid mid-size electric crossover with some outdoorsy vibes and granola style that offers more than enough utility to carry your mountain bikes to the trail or your kayaks to the river.
Toyota
Toyota hybrids are a hot commodity right now, and we haven’t seen any newsworthy holiday discount deals from Toyota in years. That said, the bZ4X EV might be the best deal in Toyota’s end-of-the-year lineup with big discounts on both 2024 and 2025 model year bZ4X crossovers happening now. Through January 6th, you can score 0% financing for 72 months plus $2,500 in TFS bonus cash.
Volkswagen
One of the most popular legacy EVs, the ID.4 offers Volkswagen build quality and (for 2024) a Chat-GPT enabled interface. Still, with a relatively affordable base price, lickety-quick charging, up to 291 miles of EPA-rated range, and a 5-star safety rating, the ID.4 offers a value proposition that’s tough to beat.
This month, the only way to beat the ID.4’s 0% financing for 72 months would be to convince the bank to pay you to buy it.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced $28.5 million in additional funding being made available to install DC fast chargers for private and commercial EVs driving along major travel corridors across the Empire State.
Funded by the federal National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) formula funding program, the State’s new competitive Downstate Direct Current Fast Charger (DCFC) program will improve consumer access to reliable electric vehicle (EV) charging.
This second round of NEVI funding will focus on installing new DC fast charging locations south of Interstate 84, including sites in the lower Hudson Valley, New York City, and Long Island.
“This critical federal NEVI funding supports New York State’s ongoing leadership to invest in a network of electric vehicle fast chargers, particularly in areas downstate that face heavy traffic,” explains Governor Hochul. “Making quick, reliable charging easily available will encourage more people to drive EVs that help to lower pollution from vehicles, provide cleaner air for New Yorkers, and improve health in our communities.”
The new chargers will meet all current NEVI requirements, which means they’ll be located within one travel mile of an AFC (alternative fuel corridor) highway exit, being publicly accessible 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and having the ability to charge at least four EVs simultaneously at speeds of at least 150 kW per vehicle.
Proposals that address gaps between existing and planned charging stations, offer amenities such as restrooms and food, or have stations that provide multiple types of charging connectors (ex.: both CCS and J3400, or Tesla/NACS), will be prioritized for the new funding.
Motiv Electric Trucks may not grab all the headlines, but it’s been quietly putting electric box vans to work throughout California for the past fifteen years. And, last week, the company’s commercial EV fleet logged its five millionth all-electric mile driven.
According to Motiv’s press materials, fully 45% of the electric step vans in California today are Motive Electric Trucks. That translates to more than 370 electric vans operating daily shifts throughout the Golden State, racking up not just five million miles of all-electric driving, but racking up other big stats as well.
What kind of stats? Try these: over 300 million pounds of goods delivered, more than 15 million pounds of CO2 “saved” compared to conventional diesel, nearly a ton of PM 2.5 particulate matter, and – most crucial of all – more than 98% uptime.
That’s the kind of performance that leads to high levels of customer satisfaction, and Motiv has that, too. The company says its 200-mile range step vans lead the industry when it comes to repeat and follow-on orders, citing that since delivering its first EV in 2009, fully 64% of its new vehicle sales have been to repeat customers like Purolator, Vestis (formerly Aramark Uniform Services), Cintas, Bimbo Bakeries, and Shasta Linen Supply.
“We are very appreciative of our customers for believing in us, sharing our vision of cleaner commerce, and investing clean trucking to benefit their communities,” explains Scott Griffith, CEO of Motiv. “We’re also grateful for our employees and partners who produce such high quality and safe vehicles to make this milestone possible. We’re already looking ahead to the next 5 million miles.”
As much fun as all that is, though, it’s comments like these (below) that really make me hope Motiv continues to succeed – because they seem to get it.
Poor air quality caused by fossil-powered trucks disproportionally affects low-income communities and communities of color, as pollution is found in higher rates near highways, warehouses and ports, where these communities abound. Long-term exposure to poor air quality causes increased death rates attributed to cardiovascular diseases and has been linked to lung cancer.
Additionally, children who grow up in areas with high levels of pollution show reduced lung function, increased rates of asthma and lower IQ levels in their teens. Each electric mile our customers drive helps reduce these public health issues, for the benefit of everyone along the route.
When vehicle manufacturers start to look at the damage that ICEs have done, and continue to do their communities, and fess up to lasting, generational impact caused by the sort of lazy and/or corrupt government policies Americans have endured for decades, it’s hard not to think of them as “the good guys.” Here’s hoping that the good guys everywhere eventually win out.