Oil just hit its highest level of the year — and some analysts expect a return to $100 before 2024
In an aerial view, oil storage tanks are shown at the Enterprise Sealy Station on August 28, 2023 in Sealy, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Oil prices climbed to their highest level of the year this week, extending a rally that has put a return to $100 a barrel sharply into focus.
Indeed, some analysts believe crude prices could hit this milestone before year-end.
International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $93.90 a barrel on Friday morning in London, around 0.2% higher. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures, meanwhile, stood at $90.41, almost 0.3% higher for the session.
Both Brent and WTI settled at their highest respective levels of the year on Thursday. The oil contracts are sharply higher month-to-date and remain firmly on track to notch their third consecutive positive week.
The price rally comes amid growing expectations of tighter supply after Saudi Arabia and Russia moved to draw down global inventories and extend their oil output cuts through to the end of the year.
OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia said on Sept. 5 that it would extend its 1 million barrel per day production cut through to year-end, with non-OPEC leader Russia pledging to reduce oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. Both countries have said they will review their voluntary cuts on a monthly basis.
Analysts at Bank of America have indicated they now believe oil prices could soon spike beyond triple digits.
“Should OPEC+ maintain the ongoing supply cuts through year-end against Asia’s positive demand backdrop, we now believe Brent prices could spike past $100/bbl before 2024,” analysts led by Francisco Blanch said Tuesday in a research note.
Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM said a jump toward the $100 milestone was “plausible,” citing production constraints from Saudi Arabia and Russia, upcoming refinery maintenance, the structural shortage of diesel in Europe and a growing consensus that the current cycle of tightening will soon come to an end.
“Nonetheless, such a rally also entails renewed inflationary pressure,” Varga told CNBC on Friday. This was reflected, he said, in this week’s U.S. inflation data and the rise in consumer spending, which indicated that interest rates may stay higher for longer and could have a negative impact on both economic and oil demand growth.
“For this reason, I believe that any spike towards $100 will be short-lived,” he added.
‘A significant supply shortfall’
The International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s production constraints would likely result in a “substantial market deficit” through the fourth quarter.
The world’s leading energy authority said in its monthly oil report that output curbs by OPEC and non-OPEC members of over 2.5 million barrels per day since the start of the year had so far been offset by members outside the OPEC+ alliance — such as the U.S. and Brazil.
“From September onwards, the loss of OPEC+ production, led by Saudi Arabia, will drive a significant supply shortfall through the fourth quarter,” the IEA said.
Christyan Malek, global head of energy strategy and head of EMEA oil and gas equity research at JPMorgan, said he believes the price of oil is likely to trade in a range of $80 to $100 in the short term — and at around $80 over the long term.
“As we go into next year, it will be very dependent on how we see China evolve … what does the US do? And how does shale respond?” Malek said Monday, noting the U.S. appears to have limited options if it is to try to drive oil and gasoline prices lower ahead of next year’s pivotal presidential election.
“I think for us one of the important data points for this year as a whole is that we tested $70. You have to test the marginal costs, we can all predict it, and we got there. We got to $70, and it bounced off so with that marginal cost, we’re looking at a much higher long-term price,” he added.
A lone pumpjack located in the middle of a large solar array outside of Bakersfield, Kern County, California.
Citizens Of The Planet | Universal Images Group | Getty Images
Not everyone believes oil prices are destined for an imminent return to $100, however. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the crude sector looks increasingly overbought in the near-term and appears in need of a pullback.
“We do not join the $100 per barrel camp but will not rule out a relatively short period where Brent could trade above $90,” Hansen said in a research note published Sept. 8.
“From a technical perspective, Brent has been in a bullish uptrend since July and needs to hold support at $89 as a break may trigger long liquidation towards $87.5 from traders who bought the production cut extension news,” he added.
“However, the medium-term uptrend is still firm with trendline support near $85, potentially being the bottom of a new higher range supported by OPEC’s active management of supply.”
— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
HOUSTON — Amazon, Alphabet’s Google and Meta Platforms on Wednesday said they support efforts to at least triple nuclear energy worldwide by 2050.
The tech companies signed a pledge first adopted in December 2023 by more than 20 countries, including the U.S., at the U.N. Climate Change Conference. Financial institutions including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley backed the pledge last year.
The pledge is nonbinding, but highlights the growing support for expanding nuclear power among leading industries, finance and governments.
Amazon, Google and Meta are increasingly important drivers of energy demand in the U.S. as they build out artificial intelligence centers. The tech sector is turning to nuclear power after concluding that renewables alone won’t provide enough reliable power for their energy needs.
Amazon and Google announced investments last October to help launch small nuclear reactors, technology still under development that the industry hopes will reduce the cost and timelines that have plagued new reactor builds in the U.S.
Meta issued a call in December for nuclear developers to submit proposals to help the tech company add up to four gigawatts of new nuclear in the U.S.
The pledge signed Wednesday was led by the World Nuclear Association on the sidelines of the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston.
Environment
French industrial giant Schneider Electric hails the significance of China’s ‘DeepSeek moment’
China’s so-called “DeepSeek moment” is likely to be good news in the global race to develop artificial intelligence models that can carry out more complex tasks, according to Jean-Pascal Tricoire, chairman of French power-equipment maker Schneider Electric.
“I actually think its good news. We need AI at every level,” Tricoire told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at CONVERGE LIVE in Singapore on Wednesday.
“We need AI to optimize your whole enterprise at all levels, so that you can buy better, consume better, decide better, source better. To do all of this, we need models to operate on a smaller scale,” he added.
Tricoire said the emergence of Chinese AI app DeepSeek showed that AI models can achieve the same results as some of its more established U.S. rivals, but with a much smaller model.
It “will actually spread AI at all levels of the architecture much faster,” Tricoire said. He added that DeepSeek’s blockbuster R1 model would be “fantastic” for improving safety and reliability when deploying AI on dangerous equipment.
“The spread of AI models at every level of what we need is actually very good news,” Tricoire said.
His comments come shortly after Schneider Electric reported record sales and profits in 2024.
The company, which has been a big beneficiary of the artificial intelligence trend, raised its 2025 profit margin following robust fourth-quarter demand for data centers.
Shares of Schneider Electric rose 33% in 2024, following a 39% upswing in 2023. The Paris-listed stock is down around 7% year to date, however, with China’s recent AI push sparking concerns about AI investment and tech sector returns.
Data centers, which consume an ever-increasing amount of energy, represent a key piece of infrastructure behind modern-day cloud computing and AI applications.
— CNBC’s Ganesh Rao contributed to this report.
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