A prolonged coordinated strike by the United Auto Workers union against the Detroit Three automakers could cut production by thousands, potentially pushing up vehicle prices and exacerbating supply-chain disruptions, analysts said.
The auto industry is on edge as the current four-year contracts between the UAW and General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis for hourly US workers expire on midnight Sept. 14, after which the union’s chief has warned of a possible coordinated strike.
New vehicle prices may rise by less than 2% if the strike lasts about two weeks, according to automotive consulting firm J.D. Power.
“Everyone’s going to see higher prices regardless of the company you buy from if it (strike) continues for more than two weeks,” said Tyson Jominy, vice president, data and analytics at J.D. Power.
He added that companies such as Toyota, Honda and Volkswagen may also benefit if the domestic brands quickly run out of inventory to sell.
Jominy said the used car market, which quickly follows the underlying trends of the new market, may see a greater impact on prices if there are fewer substitutes for buying a vehicle.
CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson said strikes at all three automakers would cut North American auto production by 150,000 units per week, resulting in higher vehicle prices as inventories deplete.
That would mean an end to the trend of cooling vehicle prices in recent months, at a time when inflation continues to pinch US consumers.
“Even if the UAW continues to negotiate beyond its deadline, the lack of a deal and threat of a strike should discourage auto dealers from offering discounts on their existing inventory and drive an uptick in vehicle prices,” J.P. Morgan insurance analyst Jimmy Bhullar said.
Deutsche Bank previously estimated that a strike would hit earnings at each affected automaker by about $400 million to $500 million per week of production.
GM and Ford are also in the midst of a multi-billion dollar EV transition and brokerage Wedbush estimates adoption of some major UAW proposals to result in an increase in the price of electric vehicles rolling out over the next 12 to 18 months.
“(Ford CEO Jim) Farley and (GM CEO Mary) Barra both face some tough decisions ahead and find themselves with the back against the wall,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note.
The resulting disruptions from any strikes are also likely to benefit EV leader Tesla, industry experts said. Some dealers are also expected to gain from shortages of vehicles.
“The big thing to keep in mind (is) that (the) UAW strike could help stabilize our margins, which is quite nice,” auto retailer Lithia Motors’ CEO Bryan DeBoer said during a July analyst call.
Another large dealer, AutoNation, previously said it had built up inventories from domestic manufacturers, which should provide some cushion.
However, UAW president Shawn Fain rejected the idea that worker wages were responsible for auto prices going up in the last few years.
In a video released on Thursday titled “Here’s what the Big Three and the corporate media’s NOT telling you about car prices,” Fain said “corporate greed” was responsible for rising car prices.
“In the last four years, the average price of a new car is up 30%, meanwhile auto worker wages have risen a meager 6%,” Fain said.
The chief inspector of prisons has said the recent spate of prisoners being released too early is “a symptom of a system that is close to breaking point”.
Charlie Taylor’s assessment comes as it is revealed that two prisoners wrongly released last year are still at large, as are two others believed to have been freed in error in June this year.
Writing in The Daily Telegraph, Mr Taylor said the growing number of mistaken early releases was “embarrassing and potentially dangerous”.
He also put it down to “an overcomplicated sentencing framework” and described it as “a symptom of a system that is close to breaking point”.
Image: Sky’s Tom Parmenter confronts Brahim Kaddour-Cherifm, who was arrested on Friday after a police search following his release from HMP Wandsworth in south London last week
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He said prison inspections “repeatedly highlight the failure to keep prisons secure, safe and decent, and to provide the sort of activity that will help inmates get work on release”.
In his opinion piece, the chief inspector pointed to successive governments’ responses to the overcrowding crisis in the system, which put pressure on “junior prison staff who repeatedly had to recalculate every prisoner’s release date”.
These calculations, he wrote, had been made harder by a series of early-release schemes brought in by successive governments.
The changes, he said, “increase the likelihood of mistakes and in three years the number of releases in error has gone up from around 50 a year to 262”.
It comes as ministers face mounting pressure over a series of high-profile manhunts, with Justice Secretary David Lammy admitting on Friday there is a “mountain to climb” to tackle the crisis in the prison system.
Algerian sex offender Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, 24, was arrested on Friday after a police search following his release from HMP Wandsworth in south London last week, which Scotland Yard said officers only found out about on Tuesday.
It follows the mistaken release of Hadush Kebatu, who was convicted of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl and a woman while living in an asylum hotel. The incidents sparked protests in Epping, Essex.
Prison security checks have been toughened and an independent investigation into mistaken releases launched after the now-deported Ethiopian national was accidentally freed from HMP Chelmsford on 24 October.
Image: Hadush Kebatu was convicted of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl and another woman. Pic: Crown Prosecution Service/PA
A total of 262 inmates were mistakenly let out in the year to March 2025 – a 128% increase on the 115 in the previous 12 months, according to the latest official figures.
Of the total, 90 releases in error were of violent or sex offenders.
Kaddour-Cherif was serving a sentence for trespass with intent to steal, but had previously been convicted for indecent exposure.
He is understood to have overstayed his visitor’s visa to the UK after arriving in 2019, and was in the process of being deported.
Asked about the four missing prisoners on Friday, shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick said: “The chaos continues. The government keeps putting the British people at risk and is relentlessly failing victims. Does anyone have confidence in David Lammy?”
Mr Lammy said on Friday: “We inherited a prison system in crisis, and I’m appalled at the rate of releases in error this is causing.
“I’m determined to grip this problem, but there is a mountain to climb which cannot be done overnight.
A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said releases in error “have been increasing for several years and are another symptom of a justice system crisis inherited by this government”.
In a statement on Saturday, the ministry said it has introduced “mandatory, stronger prisoner release checks to keep our streets safe and protect the public as well as investing record amounts into our courts – including to improve operational assurance.
“We’re also investing billions, reforming sentencing and building the prison places needed to keep the public safe.”
MADISON, Wis. — Wisconsin quarterback Danny O’Neil was carted off the field and into the locker room after injuring his leg in the first quarter of the Badgers’ game against No. 24 Washington (No. 23 College Football Playoff) on Saturday.
O’Neil got up at the end of a 21-yard keeper, limped and then went back down and clutched his right leg. Wisconsin announced in the second quarter that O’Neil would miss the rest of the game with what was officially ruled a lower-body injury.
The San Diego State transfer was making his first start since a Sept. 13 loss to Alabama, though he had played in a reserve role Sept. 20 against Maryland and Oct. 18 against Ohio State.
Freshman Carter Smith took over for O’Neil and made his college debut Saturday.
Quarterback issues have hindered Wisconsin throughout the season. Billy Edwards Jr. was Wisconsin’s first-team quarterback at the start of the year, but he sprained his knee in the second quarter of the Badgers’ season opener and has played only one full series since.
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Omar Cooper Jr. jumped to catch a pass from Fernando Mendoza in the back of the end zone, sweeping his inside foot within the field of play to go ahead of Penn State 27-24 with 36 seconds remaining and save No. 2 Indiana from its first loss of the season Saturday.
The downtrodden Nittany Lions, led by an interim coach and riding the school’s longest losing streak in 21 years, almost denied the Hoosiers (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) their first Happy Valley win in school history.
Penn State (3-6, 0-6) came back from down 13 points in the third quarter and was a couple of first downs away from the upset. Once the Nittany Lions were forced to punt, they couldn’t respond with late-game heroics of their own in the little time the Hoosiers left them. A Hail Mary effort from midfield was unsuccessful.
“It was the most improbable victory I have ever been a part of,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said. “And there couldn’t have been a better place to make it happen.”
The Hoosiers entered Happy Valley used to losing in the sprawling, 107,000-seat Beaver Stadium. Before Saturday, the Nittany Lions owned a 25-2 edge head-to-head, winning all 13 games on their home field.
“It’s just a rocking crowd. When you hear that silence when you get hit when you throw, then you know it’s a completion,” said Mendoza, who was sacked three times, threw for 218 yards with one touchdown and an interception and also ran in a score.
Penn State rallied to take the lead 24-20 in the fourth quarter when Ethan Grunkemeyer connected with Nicholas Singleton for a 19-yard score with 6:27 to play.
Penn State punted to Indiana with 1:51 remaining, giving Mendoza the ball back at his own 20. He was sacked on first down, but recovered to hit receivers for 22, 12, 29 and 17 yards before finding Cooper at the back edge of the end zone.
Afterward, a smiling Cooper called it the best catch of his career. Mendoza agreed.
Kaelon Black scored a rushing touchdown and Nico Radicic kicked two field goals for the Hoosiers. Charlie Becker had seven receptions for 118 yards and Cooper finished with six receptions for 32 yards.
Singleton added two rushing touchdowns for the Nittany Lions, who are playing under interim coach Terry Smith and have lost six in a row.
“It’s just very humbling,” Smith said. “I think back to Joe Paterno and him running on the field. I’m in the same position that he was and I have to do better for our guys. We have to taste victory because they deserve it.”
After a pair of stunted possessions to start the game, the Hoosiers easily zipped down the field on their third try when Mendoza hit Becker for a 53-yard pass down the middle. Mendoza scrambled through Penn State’s defense for an 18-yard touchdown two plays later.
Penn State tied it 7-7 with a 10-play, 67-yard drive that ended with a short scoring plunge by Singleton, but the Andy Kotelnicki-called offense didn’t get rolling until the fourth quarter and Indiana led 17-7 at halftime.