Storm Daniel was Greece’s worst storm in recorded history but for Libya it would trigger a disaster of unimaginable scale.
Sky’s Data and Forensics team looks at the warning signs that were missed and how human error exacerbated a natural disaster.
The storm began forming over the Ionian Sea on 4 September and after battering Bulgaria, Turkey and Greece it made its way south across the Mediterranean towards Africa.
Some warnings in Libya were issued but critics say more action could have been taken before the flash floods hit.
Weather warnings
The country’s National Meteorological Centre started issuing warnings of heavy rain last Friday and urged all governmental authorities to take caution.
Image: Storm Daniel hit Libya on 10 September. Pic: Ventusky
Based on these warnings, a state of emergency was announced in the eastern regions.
But no mitigations were put in place and no evacuations were carried out, as the storm made landfall in the eastern city of Derna.
Footage verified by Sky News shows a torrent of water swelling the Wadi river, which runs from the mountains and through the city, in the early hours of Monday morning.
Residents were seen filming the water from the riverbank by the city’s al Sahaba Mosque. The flash floods and the collapse of the dams would later sweep away entire neighbourhoods and kill more than 11,000 people.
Old dams from 1970s
But it wasn’t just the weather that impacted the outcome of this disaster.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said Libya’s National Meteorological Centre “didn’t address the risk posed by the ageing dams” which burst.
The two dams located upstream around 5km apart were built in the 1970s.
A hydrological report published just last year warned that maintenance of the two structures was required to prevent catastrophic flooding.
But the deputy mayor of Derna has said neither dam had been maintained since 2002.
The report, in the Sebha University Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences, said the area has a “high potential for flood risk”, adding that dams of Wadi Derna basin needed “periodic maintenance” and that large floods could cause one of the dams to collapse making those in Derna vulnerable.
Before and after satellite images of one of the dams shows the extent of the damage after flash floods ripped through the structure.
Both the infrastructure and the politics at play have impacted this disaster.
Professor in Climate Risks & Resilience, University of Reading, Liz Stephens said: “There’s no such thing as a natural disaster.
“So there might be an extreme weather event, but it’s that interplay with the community, the governance and the people on the ground that leads to that risk.
“In this case, if the dams were not there, then we wouldn’t have seen large loss of life as a result of their collapse.”
Sky News will air a special programme – Libya floods: The city swept away – at midday on Saturday.
A curfew and no evacuation
Authorities have also been blamed for their initial response and handling of the disaster.
While critics say evacuations should have taken place to move residents of Derna to safer areas, the authorities instead told the population to hunker down.
On 10 September the mayor met with the security directorate of Derna, images posted on Facebook show.
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The pair discussed a curfew and urged residents to stay in their homes.
They say the measure was put in place for citizens’ safety, but that announcement was met with anger and complaints at the time and afterwards in comments on the Facebook page.
The head of the WMO, secretary-general Petteri Taalas, added that evacuations should have been ordered and Libya’s government was “not functional”.
Had there been a weather service which could have issued warnings, emergency management authorities would have been able to carry out evacuations, he added.
For Libya, rescue operations are complicated by political fractures in a country which has been at war on-and-off with no strong central government since a NATO-backed uprising toppled Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
But the deadly combination of a powerful storm, inadequate infrastructure and an unstable political environment has left the people of Libya victim to a disaster which might largely have been avoided.
Two things can be true at the same time – an adage so apt for the past day.
This was the Trump show. There’s no question about that. It was a show called by him, pulled off for him, attended by leaders who had no other choice and all because he craves the ego boost.
But the day was also an unquestionable and game-changing geopolitical achievement.
Image: World leaders, including Trump and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, pose for a family photo. Pic: Reuters
Trump stopped the war, he stopped the killing, he forced Hamas to release all the hostages, he demanded Israel to free prisoners held without any judicial process, he enabled aid to be delivered to Gaza, and he committed everyone to a roadmap, of sorts, ahead.
He did all that and more.
He also made the Israel-Palestine conflict, which the world has ignored for decades, a cause that European and Middle Eastern nations are now committed to invest in. No one, it seems, can ignore Trump.
Love him or loathe him, those are remarkable achievements.
‘Focus of a goldfish’
The key question now is – will he stay the course?
One person central to the negotiations which have led us to this point said to me last week that Trump has the “focus of a goldfish”.
Image: Benjamin Netanyahu applauds while Trump addresses the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Pic: Reuters
It’s true that he tends to have a short attention span. If things are not going his way, and it looks likely that he won’t turn out to be the winner, he quickly moves on and blames someone else.
So, is there a danger of that with this? Let’s check in on it all six months from now (I am willing to be proved wrong – the Trump-show is truly hard to chart), but my judgement right now is that he will stay the course with this one for several reasons.
First, precisely because of the show he has created around this. Surely, he won’t want it all to fall apart now?
He has invested so much personal reputation in all this, I’d argue that even he wouldn’t want to drop it, even when the going gets tough – which it will.
Second, the Abraham Accords. They represented his signature foreign policy achievement in his first term – the normalisation of relations between Israel and the Muslim world.
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4:48
How a huge day for the Middle East unfolded
Back in his first presidency, he tried to push the accords through without solving the Palestinian question. It didn’t work.
This time, he’s grasped the nettle. Now he wants to bring it all together in a grand bargain. He’s doing it for peace but also, of course, for the business opportunities – to help “make America great again”.
Peace – and prosperity – in the Middle East is good for America. It’s also good for Trump Inc. He and his family are going to get even richer from a prosperous Middle East.
Then there is the Nobel Peace Prize. He didn’t win it this year. He was never going to – nominations had to be in by January.
But next year he really could win – especially if he solves the Ukraine challenge too.
If he could bring his coexistence and unity vibe to his own country – rather than stoking the division – he may stand an even greater chance of winning.
France’s reappointed prime minister has offered to suspend controversial reforms to the country’s pension system, days after returning to the top role.
Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform, which gradually raises the age at which a worker can retire on a full pension from 62 to 64, was forced through without a vote in parliament after weeks of street protests in 2023.
Sebastien Lecornu said on Tuesday he would postpone the introduction of the scheme, one of Mr Macron’s main economic policies, until after the 2027 presidential election.
With two no-confidence votes in parliament this week, Mr Lecornu had little choice but to make the offer to secure the support of left-wing MPs who demanded it as the price of their support for his survival.
Image: Mr Lecornu in parliament on Tuesday. Pic: Reuters
The prime minister will hope it is enough to get a slimmed-down 2026 budget passed at a time when France’s public finances are in a mess.
It will be seen as a blow to Mr Macron, leaving him with little in the way of domestic achievements after eight years in office. But it reflects the reality that giving ground on the landmark measure was the only way to ensure the survival of his sixth prime minister in under two years.
Mr Lecornu told MPs he will “suspend the 2023 pension reform until the presidential election”.
“No increase in the retirement age will take place from now until January 2028,” he added.
The move will cost the Treasury €400m (£349m) in 2026, and €1.8bn (£1.5bn) the year after, he said, warning it couldn’t just be added to the deficit and “must therefore be financially offset, including through savings measures”.
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French PM returns to role days after quitting
On re-taking office, he pledged to “put an end to this political crisis, which is exasperating the French people, and to this instability, which is bad for France’s image and its interests”.
Economists in Europe have previously warned that France – the EU’s second-largest economy – faces a Greek-style debt crisis, with its deficit at 5.4%.
Mr Lecornu is hoping to bring that down to 4.7% with an overall package of cuts totalling €30bn (£26bn), but his plans were dismissed as wishful thinking by France’s independent fiscal watchdog.
Mr Macron has burned through five prime ministers in less than two years, but has so far refused to call another election or resign.
A freed Palestinian prisoner, one of about 1,700 detainees from Gaza who had been held by Israel without charge, has described scenes of systematic torture, humiliation and death inside Israeli detention.
Akram al Basyouni, 45, from northern Gaza, says he was detained on 10 December 2023 at a shelter school in Jabalia and spent nearly two years in custody, including at the Sde Teiman military base.
“Many of our fellow prisoners were beaten to the point of death,” he told Sky News. “When we cried out to the guards for help, they would answer coldly, ‘Let him die’. Five minutes later they would take the body away, wrap it in a bag, and shut the door.”
Al Basyouni said detainees were routinely tortured, beaten with batons and fists, attacked by dogs and gassed during what guards called a “reception ceremony”.
“They beat us so savagely our ribs were shattered. They poured boiling water over the faces and backs of young men until their skin peeled away. We sat on cold metal floors for days, punished even for asking for help.”
Sky News has contacted the Israel Prison Service (IPS) and the Israel Defense Forces for comment but has not yet received a response.
Al Basyouni claimed prisoners were forced to remain on their knees for long hours, deprived of clothing and blankets, and subjected to religious and psychological abuse.
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“They cursed the Prophet, tore up the Koran in front of us, and insulted our mothers and sisters in the foulest language,” he said. “They told us our families were dead. ‘There is no Gaza,’ they said. ‘We killed your children.'”
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Palestinian prisoners released
Palestinians freed from Israeli prisons in past exchanges have reported frequent beatings, insufficient food and deprivation of medical care.
A 2024 UN report said that since 7 October 2023, thousands of Palestinians have been held arbitrarily and incommunicado by Israel, often shackled, subject to torture and deprived of food, water, sleep and medical care.
Israel has maintained that it follows international and domestic legal standards for the treatment of prisoners and that any prison personnel violations are investigated.
Its National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who oversees the country’s prisons, has on multiple occasions boasted about making conditions for Palestinians as harsh as possible while remaining within the law.
Al Basyouni claimed many detainees, including doctors, died from beatings or medical neglect.
“I heard about Dr Adnan al-Bursh, may God have mercy on him,” he said. “He was struck in the chest by a prison guard, over his heart. He lost consciousness immediately and died five minutes later.”
Sky News’ own investigation found that Dr al-Bursh, one of Gaza’s most respected surgeons, died after being tortured in Israeli custody, sustaining broken ribs and severe injuries while being held at Ofer Prison.
Al Basyouni said he also met Dr Hossam Abu Safiya at Ofer and heard that Dr Akram Abu Ouda had been “subjected to severe and repeated torture.”
“Even the doctors were beaten and denied treatment,” he said. “Many reached the brink of death.”
In response to our investigation into Dr al-Bursh’s death, a spokesman for the Israel Prison Service said at the time: “We are not aware of the claims you described and as far as we know, no such events have occurred under IPS responsibility.”