Three years on from Abraham Accords, is a bigger prize in sight for Israel?

Published

1 year ago

September 15, 2023

admin

The Abraham Accords, when they were signed three years ago today, were a major step forward for peace in the Middle East.

For the first time, four Arab countries – the United Arab Emirates & Bahrain initially, followed shortly after by Morocco and Sudan – agreed to recognise Israel and work together for mutual diplomatic, security and economic benefit.

The success of the Accords has been chequered – new direct air routes have opened up and brought some investment and tourism benefits, academic partnerships have been established, and the earthquake in Morocco last weekend saw the Israeli government immediately offer military search and rescue support to one of their new allies.

There have been bumps along the road though – Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had a number of invitations to the UAE cancelled this year because of Emirati anger over Israeli force inside Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque, and many people hoped the pace of mutual benefits would have been faster than the reality.

But now there is a bigger prize looming into focus: a deal with Saudi Arabia.

Alongside the judicial reforms and violence in The West Bank, the diplomatic goings-on between Washington, Jerusalem and Riyadh is now one of the most discussed issues in Israeli media.

A normalisation agreement with one of the major powers in the Middle East would eclipse the Abraham Accords and Mr Netanyahu has made no secret of his desperation for a deal.

“Our hand is extended to all Arab States and certainly to Saudi Arabia which is vitally important,” he told me in an interview earlier this year.

“We have great opportunities to advance the peace in our region, peace between our two countries, the wellbeing of our peoples. I think it would change history.”

Diplomatic wheels are spinning

Whether a deal is close, or even possible, depends on who you speak to, but what isn’t in doubt is that the diplomatic wheels are spinning and there appears to be a desire on all sides to achieve something.

Just last week a senior US delegation travelled to Riyadh for talks on the deal, and they were joined by Hussein al Sheikh, a major figure in the PLO and close ally of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Separately, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held calls this month with Abbas and Mr Netanyahu, and on Air Force One, en route to Delhi for the G20, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters there is “still work to do” but revealed that “many of the elements of a pathway to normalisation are now on the table”.

More important than the deal itself will be the content of any agreement. Riyadh’s demands reportedly include US help to develop a civilian nuclear programme, delivery of advanced US weaponry and a NATO-style military pact with the US, whereby Washington would commit to defending Saudi Arabia if it was attacked.

In return, Washington is hoping that Saudi Arabia will dampen its growing diplomatic ties with China and Russia and help counter the threat from Iran.

Israel might want a similar pact with its American allies but will view a peace deal with Saudi Arabia as a significant step in strengthening its own security, even though there are already concerns in Jerusalem that a civil nuclear deal for Saudi Arabia will spark a nuclear arms race in the region.

Like the Abraham Accords, it would open up investment and trade opportunities between two of the leading economies in the region, and increase recognition in the Arab world of Israel as a legitimate state.

What a deal could mean for Palestine

The big outstanding question is what a deal might mean for Palestinians. Unlike the Abraham Accords, the Palestinian government has chosen to engage in the process this time in the hope of securing their own future.

Ramallah wants “irreversible” steps to advance its ambitions for statehood, according to reports, which would likely include US-backing to recognise a Palestinian state at the United Nations.

The US is encouraging Ramallah to focus its demands on Israel, rather than Washington, and has suggested the idea of transferring parts of Area C in the West Bank (currently under Israeli control) to Area A (under Palestinian control) or Area B (under joint control). It’s unclear how realistic or possible this would be, such is the large presence of Israeli settlements and military zones covering that land.

Either way, speaking to the Pod Save The World podcast a few days ago, Mr Blinken confirmed that “if this process is to move forward, the Palestinian piece is going to be very important,” to the US and Saudis, even if Israel will be hesitant.

The desire for a deal, from all sides, is one thing but there are some obvious and not inconsiderable obstacles standing in the way of an agreement.

Any deal would require the support of two-thirds of the US Senate and a significant number of senators, particularly Democrats, would likely oppose concessions to Saudi Arabia because of concerns over the country’s human rights record, notably the war in Yemen and the 2018 killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Other politicians are likely to resist any commitment that might risk dragging the US military back into the Middle East.

Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing nationalist partners in the coalition have already said they will oppose anything that gives concessions to the Palestinians, and so the embattled prime minister will have to look to opposition leaders to get the deal through the Knesset. It might be that the price of the deal is a collapse of the Israeli government and even the end of Mr Netanyahu’s time as prime minister.

After seeing his domestic opinion polls plummet this year however, and having been on the receiving end of criticism from world leaders, including President Joe Biden, for his attempts to ram through wide-ranging and controversial judicial reforms, it might be a last act of sacrifice he is will to gamble in order to save his legacy.

“It would be a quantum leap forward,” he told me in June. It certainly would be, but how far is Bibi willing to jump to get it over the line?

World

‘Germany stands in dark hours with Magdeburg’: Memorial service held for Christmas market attack victims

Published

9 hours ago

December 22, 2024

admin

'Germany stands in dark hours with Magdeburg': Memorial service held for Christmas market attack victims

A memorial service has taken place in Magdeburg, Germany, for the victims of a Christmas market attack.

At least five people were killed and more than 200 others injured when a car ploughed into crowds shopping on Friday evening.

Among those attending the service in the city’s cathedral was Chancellor Olaf Scholz, interior minister Nancy Faeser and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

In a post on X, Mr Scholz described it as a “moving moment of compassion and solidarity for a deeply affected city”.

“The whole of Germany stands in these dark hours with the people of Magdeburg,” he wrote.

Magdeburg marked the tragedy on Saturday with the cathedral bells tolling at 7.04pm local time (6.04pm UK time), exactly 24 hours after the attack.

German football also paid tribute to the victims with silences before Bundesliga games on Saturday evening.

Earlier, while visiting the scene of the atrocity, Mr Scholz said: “There is no more peaceful and cheerful place than a Christmas market.

“What a terrible act it is to injure and kill so many people there with such brutality.”

Young child among the dead

Four adults and a nine-year-old child were killed when a black BMW was driven into people at the Christmas market.

Of those injured, 41 are said to be seriously hurt, and authorities have warned the number of dead could rise.

Meanwhile, a man is being questioned by police after being arrested at the scene.

He has been named by German media as Taleb A, with his surname being withheld in line with privacy laws, although the name has not been confirmed by German authorities.

Saudi suspect being held

The suspect is a 50-year-old Saudi citizen who worked as a doctor and arrived in Germany in 2006, premier of Saxony-Anhalt state Reiner Haseloff said.

Taleb A is being investigated for five counts of suspected murder and 205 counts of suspected attempted murder, prosecutor Horst Walter Nopens said.

The motive for the atrocity is not yet known.

Investigators are looking into whether the attack could have been motivated by the suspect’s dissatisfaction with how Germany treats Saudi refugees, Mr Nopens added.

Interior minister Nancy Faeser told reporters it was “clear” the suspect was “Islamophobic”.

Residents in Magdeburg told Sky’s Europe correspondent Siobhan Robbins they are “shocked” and “traumatised” by the attack.

One woman said she “can’t find words to describe how traumatised we are”.

“We need a lot of time to process what happened,” she said.

‘Show solidarity’

She added she wanted to attend the memorial service to “show solidarity” with others in the city and “feel collective support”.

“In such a tragedy the only thing that can help us to absorb and to process everything is to be around each other and to show our solidarity, not just with words but actions.”

Narrow escape

Andrea Reis, 57, and her daughter Julia, 34, had been at the market on Friday evening and had a narrow escape.

They could have been in the path of the car but Julia had wanted to keep walking around the market rather than stop to eat.

Andrea said: “It was the terrible sounds, children calling ‘mama, papa’, ‘help me’ – they’re going round in my head now.”

Although many people went to the site on Saturday with candles to mourn the victims, several hundred far-right protesters gathered in a central square in Magdeburg with a banner that read “remigration”, reported news agency dpa.

World

Christmas market suspect may have been ‘dissatisfied with treatment of Saudi refugees in Germany’: Here’s what we know

Published

19 hours ago

December 21, 2024

admin

Christmas market suspect may have been 'dissatisfied with treatment of Saudi refugees in Germany': Here's what we know

The suspect in the attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg appeared to be dissatisfied with the treatment of Saudi refugees in Germany, a prosecutor has said.

On Friday evening, a car was driven at speed into visiting crowds in the central German city.

Five people have died so far – including a nine-year-old child and four adults – with at least 200 more injured, according to authorities. Of those injured, 41 are said to be seriously hurt.

The suspect – who was arrested at the scene – was a 50-year-old Saudi citizen who worked as a doctor and arrived in Germany in 2006, premier of Saxony-Anhalt state Reiner Haseloff said.

He has been named as Taleb A in German media.

Police director Tom-Oliver Langhans told a news conference on Saturday the attack had left the city “very alarmed”.

He added that officers arrested the suspect three minutes after the first emergency calls were made from the market.

Prosecutor Horst Walter Nopens said the motive behind the attack appeared to be “dissatisfaction with the treatment of refugees from Saudi Arabia and how they are being treated in Germany”.

German interior minister Nancy Faeser has said the suspect was Islamophobic.

The suspect has described himself as an “ex-Muslim” who sought asylum after receiving death threats for denouncing his faith.

His social media pages, which he posted on in the hours leading up to the attack, promote anti-Islam views – and claim Germany is allowing the “Islamisation of Europe”.

The suspect, who says he works as a psychiatrist at a government hospital, has appeared in various media reports about his efforts to help other former Muslims flee Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations.

Tamara Zieschang, the state’s interior minister, told reporters the suspect had been practising medicine in Bernburg, around 25 miles south of Magdeburg.

He has a website that he told the BBC in 2019 has helped “hundreds of people” seek asylum overseas.

The homepage reads: “My advice: do not seek asylum in Germany.”

In videos with voiceovers in English, he claims he is being pursued by German police, who “sent someone carrying a knife to steal a USB stick from my mailbox”.

Tweets supporting Elon Musk and Tommy Robinson

Another tweet criticises a commentator for saying X owner Elon Musk and far-right activist Tommy Robinson should be arrested.

He claims they “cited Germany as a shining example of media censorship”, and adds: “My experience in Germany leaves no doubt – they actually censor victims.”

German terrorist expert Professor Peter Neumann described the suspect’s profile as unusual.

He says he “loves the AfD [Alternative for Germany] and wants to punish Germany for tolerance towards Islamists”, the director of King’s College London’s International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation wrote on X.

Professor Neumann said: “After 25 years in this ‘business’ you think nothing could surprise you anymore… that really wasn’t on my radar.”

World

Fury and questions in Mayotte as residents struggle to recover after Cyclone Chido

Published

19 hours ago

December 21, 2024

admin

Fury and questions in Mayotte as residents struggle to recover after Cyclone Chido

The doors of the white van are thrown open. Dozens of armed French police jump on board, their colleagues on the ground form a human chain and get to work.

The van is carrying precious cargo. Water. Small plastic bottles stacked roof high and van deep.

It’s chaotic.

Orders are being shouted in French and Chimaore, the language spoken by Mayotte’s African community.

Security is high. The gendarmes are backed up by armed local police.

Local residents are angry. That anger could easily turn to violence.

It’s why a 10pm curfew remains in place across the island. One resident described the situation as “volcanic”.

Cyclone Chido tore through Mayotte on Sunday, but this is the first water delivery Ouangani has received since Saturday.

Nobody understands why.

‘There’s no word and no one has water’

Arriving at the distribution centre just after the water is loaded on to another van for delivery to nearby villages is Ouangani’s mayor, a young, former English teacher who speaks multiple languages.

He is considered and thoughtful when describing the situation facing his country.

“It’s not sufficient,” he tells me. “There’s no word and no one has water.”

“The authorities weren’t prepared,” he adds. “There’s not only a water problem, it’s food, electricity. Nothing on the island has been done.”

He then delivers a dire warning of “people starving”.

I ask him who he thinks is to blame? He says that everyone is responsible.

“I cannot imagine that with all the means we have with technology, that they couldn’t have seen this coming,” he says.

But this region is not remote. It’s only an hour-long drive south of the capital on one winding road.

That’s why there is so much fury.

The man who challenged French President Emmanuel Macron is from here.

“Where is our water?!’, he demanded of the leader on his visit to the Indian Ocean island.

This van load of water is supposed to serve between three to five villages in the area.

That’s a population of anywhere between six and 12,000 people. Nobody knows for sure because of the problem with undocumented migrants.

We follow the van to the first drop-off.

The vehicle pulls up and drops off 10 to 20 crates of half-litre plastic bottles. Each crate has 12 small bottles. People have been waiting. They’re mostly women. Each one grabs a pack and disappears.

Within minutes it’s all gone.

Some more people show up seconds later. Their anger at missing out is obvious. “What’s the point?!” a man shouts.

‘It’ll only last about one or two hours’

Fundi has been lucky enough to get some water.

“We only just received aid now, I really don’t think that’s good enough,” she says.

They were just outside when they saw the van arrive with the water. Pure luck.

“Usually communication is good, but I don’t know why they came unannounced like that today,” she says.

But it’s not enough, Fundi explains: “Twelve bottles of water that are only 500ml, for a family? That’s really very little, it’ll only last about one to two hours.”

It’s no wonder, Fundi has a family of seven living under one roof.