Three years on from Abraham Accords, is a bigger prize in sight for Israel?

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2 years ago

September 15, 2023

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The Abraham Accords, when they were signed three years ago today, were a major step forward for peace in the Middle East.

For the first time, four Arab countries – the United Arab Emirates & Bahrain initially, followed shortly after by Morocco and Sudan – agreed to recognise Israel and work together for mutual diplomatic, security and economic benefit.

The success of the Accords has been chequered – new direct air routes have opened up and brought some investment and tourism benefits, academic partnerships have been established, and the earthquake in Morocco last weekend saw the Israeli government immediately offer military search and rescue support to one of their new allies.

There have been bumps along the road though – Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had a number of invitations to the UAE cancelled this year because of Emirati anger over Israeli force inside Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque, and many people hoped the pace of mutual benefits would have been faster than the reality.

But now there is a bigger prize looming into focus: a deal with Saudi Arabia.

Alongside the judicial reforms and violence in The West Bank, the diplomatic goings-on between Washington, Jerusalem and Riyadh is now one of the most discussed issues in Israeli media.

A normalisation agreement with one of the major powers in the Middle East would eclipse the Abraham Accords and Mr Netanyahu has made no secret of his desperation for a deal.

“Our hand is extended to all Arab States and certainly to Saudi Arabia which is vitally important,” he told me in an interview earlier this year.

“We have great opportunities to advance the peace in our region, peace between our two countries, the wellbeing of our peoples. I think it would change history.”

Diplomatic wheels are spinning

Whether a deal is close, or even possible, depends on who you speak to, but what isn’t in doubt is that the diplomatic wheels are spinning and there appears to be a desire on all sides to achieve something.

Just last week a senior US delegation travelled to Riyadh for talks on the deal, and they were joined by Hussein al Sheikh, a major figure in the PLO and close ally of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Separately, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held calls this month with Abbas and Mr Netanyahu, and on Air Force One, en route to Delhi for the G20, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters there is “still work to do” but revealed that “many of the elements of a pathway to normalisation are now on the table”.

More important than the deal itself will be the content of any agreement. Riyadh’s demands reportedly include US help to develop a civilian nuclear programme, delivery of advanced US weaponry and a NATO-style military pact with the US, whereby Washington would commit to defending Saudi Arabia if it was attacked.

In return, Washington is hoping that Saudi Arabia will dampen its growing diplomatic ties with China and Russia and help counter the threat from Iran.

Israel might want a similar pact with its American allies but will view a peace deal with Saudi Arabia as a significant step in strengthening its own security, even though there are already concerns in Jerusalem that a civil nuclear deal for Saudi Arabia will spark a nuclear arms race in the region.

Like the Abraham Accords, it would open up investment and trade opportunities between two of the leading economies in the region, and increase recognition in the Arab world of Israel as a legitimate state.

What a deal could mean for Palestine

The big outstanding question is what a deal might mean for Palestinians. Unlike the Abraham Accords, the Palestinian government has chosen to engage in the process this time in the hope of securing their own future.

Ramallah wants “irreversible” steps to advance its ambitions for statehood, according to reports, which would likely include US-backing to recognise a Palestinian state at the United Nations.

The US is encouraging Ramallah to focus its demands on Israel, rather than Washington, and has suggested the idea of transferring parts of Area C in the West Bank (currently under Israeli control) to Area A (under Palestinian control) or Area B (under joint control). It’s unclear how realistic or possible this would be, such is the large presence of Israeli settlements and military zones covering that land.

Either way, speaking to the Pod Save The World podcast a few days ago, Mr Blinken confirmed that “if this process is to move forward, the Palestinian piece is going to be very important,” to the US and Saudis, even if Israel will be hesitant.

The desire for a deal, from all sides, is one thing but there are some obvious and not inconsiderable obstacles standing in the way of an agreement.

Any deal would require the support of two-thirds of the US Senate and a significant number of senators, particularly Democrats, would likely oppose concessions to Saudi Arabia because of concerns over the country’s human rights record, notably the war in Yemen and the 2018 killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Other politicians are likely to resist any commitment that might risk dragging the US military back into the Middle East.

Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing nationalist partners in the coalition have already said they will oppose anything that gives concessions to the Palestinians, and so the embattled prime minister will have to look to opposition leaders to get the deal through the Knesset. It might be that the price of the deal is a collapse of the Israeli government and even the end of Mr Netanyahu’s time as prime minister.

After seeing his domestic opinion polls plummet this year however, and having been on the receiving end of criticism from world leaders, including President Joe Biden, for his attempts to ram through wide-ranging and controversial judicial reforms, it might be a last act of sacrifice he is will to gamble in order to save his legacy.

“It would be a quantum leap forward,” he told me in June. It certainly would be, but how far is Bibi willing to jump to get it over the line?

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US hails ‘tremendous progress’ on Ukraine peace plan – but says negotiators ‘need more time’

Published

1 day ago

November 23, 2025

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US hails 'tremendous progress' on Ukraine peace plan - but says negotiators 'need more time'

The US secretary of state has hailed a “tremendous amount of progress” on peace talks after the US and Ukraine delegations met in Geneva – but said that negotiators would “need more time”.

Marco Rubio said the meetings in Switzerland on Sunday have been “the most productive and meaningful” of the peace process so far.

He said the US was making “some changes” to the peace plan, seemingly based on Ukrainian suggestions, “in the hopes of further narrowing the differences and getting closer to something that both Ukraine and obviously the United States are very comfortable with”.

Mr Rubio struck an optimistic tone talking to the media after discussions but was light on the details, saying there was still work to be done.

“I don’t want to declare victory or finality here. There’s still some work to be done, but we are much further ahead today at this time than we were when we began this morning and where we were a week ago for certain,” Mr Rubio said.

He also stressed: “We just need more time than what we have today. I honestly believe we’ll get there.”

Sky News’ defence analyst Michael Clarke said on the initial US-Russian 28-point peace plan that it was Donald Trump against the world, with maybe only Moscow on his side.

Mr Rubio praised the Ukrainian attitude towards the talks and said Mr Trump was “quite pleased” after he previously said in a social media post that Ukraine’s leaders had expressed “ZERO GRATITUDE” for US efforts.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Sunday that there are signs that “President Trump’s team hears us”.

In a news release on Sunday evening, the White House said the day “marked a significant step forward”.

“Ukrainian representatives stated that, based on the revisions and clarifications presented today, they believe the current draft reflects their national interests and provides credible and enforceable mechanisms to safeguard Ukraine’s security in both the near and long term,” it claimed.

Despite diplomatic progress in Geneva the finish line remains a long way off

John Sparks

International correspondent

@sparkomat

We’ve witnessed a day of determined and decidedly frantic diplomacy in this well-heeled city.

Camera crews were perched on street corners and long convoys of black vehicles swept down Geneva’s throughfares as the Ukrainians worked hard to keep the Americans on side.

Secretary of state Marco Rubio did not want to go into details at a press “gaggle” held at the US Mission this evening, but he seemed to think they had made more progress in the last 96 hours than the previous 10 months combined.

The Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy also seemed satisfied enough, posting on Telegram that there were “signals President Trump’s team is hearing us” after a day of “numerous meetings and negotiations”.

That said, we are a long way from the finish line here – something Rubio acknowledged when he said that any proposal agreed here would have to be handed over to the Russians.

At that point, negotiations to stop the war would surely get tougher.

President Putin has shown little or no inclination to stop the conflict thus far.

This, then, is the most important reason the Ukrainians seem determined to keep the Americans on side.

European leaders have presented a counter proposal to the widely criticised US-Russian peace plan, with suggestions including a cap on Ukraine’s peacetime army and readmitting Moscow into the G8.

This will only take place if the plan is agreed to by the US, Russia and Ukraine, and the G7 signs off on the move. Russia was expelled after annexing Crimea in 2014.

The counter proposal also includes US guarantees to Ukraine that mirror NATO’s Article 5 – the idea that “an armed attack against one NATO member shall be considered an attack against them all”.

The initial peace plan was worked up by the White House and Kremlin without Ukraine’s involvement, and it acquiesces to many of Russia’s previous demands.

It covers a range of issues – from territorial concessions to reconstruction programmes, the future Ukrainian relationship with NATO and the EU, and educational reforms in both Ukraine and Russia.

World

Fierce battle for frontline towns where Ukraine’s soldiers are surrounded

Published

1 day ago

November 23, 2025

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Fierce battle for frontline towns where Ukraine's soldiers are surrounded

Footage geolocated by Sky News showed Russian soldiers walking through the Shakhtarskyi neighbourhood on the outskirts of Pokrovsk on Thursday.

The video sheds light on the situation in this key frontline area, as Russian forces slowly encroach on Myrnohrad, the satellite town to Pokrovsk, and one of its last remaining outposts.

Videos geolocated by Sky News show fighting intensifying in recent weeks, as Russian forces attempt to gain control of the towns and their network of road and rail intersections.

Gaining control here would give Russia a base from which to access key cities further north that form part of Ukraine’s “fortress belt”.

Russian forces are advancing from all directions, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), with only one small opening to the northwest of Myrnohrad remaining.

Estimated to be only 3km wide by military experts, this withdrawal corridor is patrolled by Russian drone units which monitor the area for moving vehicles and those who may attempt to leave on foot.

Russian forces have been advancing on Myrnohrad since late October.

Video from a Ukrainian unit in Myrnohad, posted on 29 October, shows a Russian vehicle attempting to enter the town from the northeast. The tank is attacked and soldiers attempting to enter on foot are targeted.

Video posted on 3 November shows Russian forces on the ground in the south of the town.

By 8 November, Russian strikes begin to pummel the northeast of Myrnohrad, the location of many of the town’s high-rise buildings, at that time, held by Ukrainian forces.

George Barros, Russia Team & Geospatial Intelligence Team Lead at ISW, told Sky News that Russian strategy in Pokrovsk has been to erode Ukrainian logistical capacity using drones and artillery over the course of several months.

“After denying supply lines and degrading the frontline forces by essentially cutting them off from behind and starving them out in their positions, then the Russians move forward with their infantry and frontal assaults,” Barros explained.

Capture the flag

For a brief period, it looked as though Russian forces had captured Myrnohrad.

Videos posted on 13 November appeared to show a Russian flag flying over the Myrnohrad mine.

However, video posted the following day showed a Ukrainian drone shooting it down.

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to fight for control of Myrnohrad, with videos posted on the 19 and 20 November showing Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in the town, and Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian forces on foot.

While the exact numbers of Russian and Ukrainian forces in the area remains unclear, reports indicate that three key Russian units are active in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and are advancing on the towns from the north and south.

A number of Ukrainian units remain inside the towns, including the 145th Assault regiment and the 32nd, 35th, 38th and 155th Brigades. Reports indicate that more Ukrainian units have been moved into surrounding areas to hold the withdrawal corridor open.

Sky News reached out to the Ukrainian brigades still in Myrnohrad, but they declined to comment, citing military regulations.

Strategic significance

Natia Seskuria, associate international security fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), explained that the area is important for the Ukrainians to keep and the Russians to take because of its strategic position.

“Situated at a major road and rail intersection in Donetsk Oblast, Pokrovsk has functioned as a central artery for moving troops, equipment, and supplies to Ukrainian units deployed along the surrounding front.”

Russia “would gain a platform to redirect its offensive efforts toward Ukraine’s principal defensive urban centres… including Kramatorsk and Slovyansk,” Seskuria said.

Ukrainian and Russian soldiers in Pokrovsk have fought intensely and at close quarters over the last month.

In late October US-made Black Hawk helicopters containing specialist troops directed by Ukrainian military intelligence entered Pokrovsk to try to keep the town.

But as Russian troops advance, Myrnohrad is becoming the last stronghold of Ukrainian forces in the area.

Uncertain future

At least up until 12 November, there were still civilians living in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, despite strikes on buildings in both cities.

A post made on that day by the Donetsk state regional administration estimated 1,200 people remain living in Pokrovsk and 900 in Myrnohrad.

Evacuation is only possible with the help of the military or police, and it is not clear how many have evacuated in the 11 days since.

Barros of ISW says gaining Pokrovsk would increase Russia’s leverage at the negotiating table.

“If the Russians can successfully convince enough international leaders that, okay, the Russians took Pokrovsk, they’re going to take the next thing, and they’re going take the thing, so now let’s negotiate, then that is a strategic victory for the Russians.”

Production by Michelle Inez Simon, Visual Investigations Producer.

The Data x Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

World

Torrential rain triggers deadly flooding and landslides in Vietnam

Published

1 day ago

November 23, 2025

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Torrential rain triggers deadly flooding and landslides in Vietnam

Torrential rain, flooding and landslides has left more than 100 people dead or missing in Vietnam.

Rainfall has exceeded 74.8in (1.9 metres) in some parts of central Vietnam over the past week.

The region is a major coffee production belt and home to popular beaches, but it is also prone to storms and floods.

Fatalities have been reported in Dak Lak province and the neighbouring Khanh Hoa province.

Footage has been released by local police of a dramatic rescue, involving a drone which airlifted a stranded man to safety from an island in the middle of the Serepok River, Dak Lak province.

The government estimates the flooding has cost the economy around 8.98 trillion dong (£260m).

More than 235,000 houses were flooded and nearly 80,000 hectares of crops were damaged, Vietnam’s disaster agency said.

On Thursday, VietnamNet newspaper said that a suspension bridge on Da Nhim River in Lam Dong province had been swept away.

Video footage posted online showed the bridge being swallowed by the river in just a few seconds.

Naval forces have been deployed to help stranded citizens in Khanh Hoa, the Vietnam News Agency reported, adding that floodwaters had reached record highs in many areas.

Photos shared in state media reports showed residents, including children, sitting on the roofs of flooded houses in Khanh Hoa, Gia Lai and Dak Lak provinces.

A seven-year-old girl was rescued late on Wednesday in Da Lat, the capital of Lam Dong province, after being buried by a landslide, the Nhan Dan newspaper reported.

The landslide, triggered by heavy rain, knocked down and buried part of the house where the girl was staying.

She was pulled out after an hour and a half and was taken to hospital with a broken leg, according to the report.