The Abraham Accords, when they were signed three years ago today, were a major step forward for peace in the Middle East.
For the first time, four Arab countries – the United Arab Emirates & Bahrain initially, followed shortly after by Morocco and Sudan – agreed to recognise Israel and work together for mutual diplomatic, security and economic benefit.
The success of the Accords has been chequered – new direct air routes have opened up and brought some investment and tourism benefits, academic partnerships have been established, and the earthquake in Morocco last weekend saw the Israeli government immediately offer military search and rescue support to one of their new allies.
There have been bumps along the road though – Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had a number of invitations to the UAE cancelled this year because of Emirati anger over Israeli force inside Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque, and many people hoped the pace of mutual benefits would have been faster than the reality.
Image: An Israeli settlement in the West Bank
But now there is a bigger prize looming into focus: a deal with Saudi Arabia.
Alongside the judicial reforms and violence in The West Bank, the diplomatic goings-on between Washington, Jerusalem and Riyadh is now one of the most discussed issues in Israeli media.
A normalisation agreement with one of the major powers in the Middle East would eclipse the Abraham Accords and Mr Netanyahu has made no secret of his desperation for a deal.
More on Benjamin Netanyahu
Related Topics:
“Our hand is extended to all Arab States and certainly to Saudi Arabia which is vitally important,” he told me in an interview earlier this year.
“We have great opportunities to advance the peace in our region, peace between our two countries, the wellbeing of our peoples. I think it would change history.”
Advertisement
Diplomatic wheels are spinning
Whether a deal is close, or even possible, depends on who you speak to, but what isn’t in doubt is that the diplomatic wheels are spinning and there appears to be a desire on all sides to achieve something.
Just last week a senior US delegation travelled to Riyadh for talks on the deal, and they were joined by Hussein al Sheikh, a major figure in the PLO and close ally of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
Separately, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held calls this month with Abbas and Mr Netanyahu, and on Air Force One, en route to Delhi for the G20, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters there is “still work to do” but revealed that “many of the elements of a pathway to normalisation are now on the table”.
Image: A demonstration against Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government’s judicial overhaul, in Jerusalem
More important than the deal itself will be the content of any agreement. Riyadh’s demands reportedly include US help to develop a civilian nuclear programme, delivery of advanced US weaponry and a NATO-style military pact with the US, whereby Washington would commit to defending Saudi Arabia if it was attacked.
In return, Washington is hoping that Saudi Arabia will dampen its growing diplomatic ties with China and Russia and help counter the threat from Iran.
Israel might want a similar pact with its American allies but will view a peace deal with Saudi Arabia as a significant step in strengthening its own security, even though there are already concerns in Jerusalem that a civil nuclear deal for Saudi Arabia will spark a nuclear arms race in the region.
Like the Abraham Accords, it would open up investment and trade opportunities between two of the leading economies in the region, and increase recognition in the Arab world of Israel as a legitimate state.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:06
Controversial Saudi prince to visit UK
What a deal could mean for Palestine
The big outstanding question is what a deal might mean for Palestinians. Unlike the Abraham Accords, the Palestinian government has chosen to engage in the process this time in the hope of securing their own future.
Ramallah wants “irreversible” steps to advance its ambitions for statehood, according to reports, which would likely include US-backing to recognise a Palestinian state at the United Nations.
The US is encouraging Ramallah to focus its demands on Israel, rather than Washington, and has suggested the idea of transferring parts of Area C in the West Bank (currently under Israeli control) to Area A (under Palestinian control) or Area B (under joint control). It’s unclear how realistic or possible this would be, such is the large presence of Israeli settlements and military zones covering that land.
Either way, speaking to the Pod Save The World podcast a few days ago, Mr Blinken confirmed that “if this process is to move forward, the Palestinian piece is going to be very important,” to the US and Saudis, even if Israel will be hesitant.
The desire for a deal, from all sides, is one thing but there are some obvious and not inconsiderable obstacles standing in the way of an agreement.
Any deal would require the support of two-thirds of the US Senate and a significant number of senators, particularly Democrats, would likely oppose concessions to Saudi Arabia because of concerns over the country’s human rights record, notably the war in Yemen and the 2018 killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Other politicians are likely to resist any commitment that might risk dragging the US military back into the Middle East.
Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing nationalist partners in the coalition have already said they will oppose anything that gives concessions to the Palestinians, and so the embattled prime minister will have to look to opposition leaders to get the deal through the Knesset. It might be that the price of the deal is a collapse of the Israeli government and even the end of Mr Netanyahu’s time as prime minister.
After seeing his domestic opinion polls plummet this year however, and having been on the receiving end of criticism from world leaders, including President Joe Biden, for his attempts to ram through wide-ranging and controversial judicial reforms, it might be a last act of sacrifice he is will to gamble in order to save his legacy.
“It would be a quantum leap forward,” he told me in June. It certainly would be, but how far is Bibi willing to jump to get it over the line?
To the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, they march, whipping their backs with metal flails.
It is an ancient ceremony going back almost 14 centuries – the Shia commemoration of Ashura.
But this year in particular has poignant significance for Iranians.
The devout remember the betrayal and death of the Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday.
Image: Iranians gather ahead of Ashura
We filmed men and women weep as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.
The grandson of the Prophet Muhammad was killed by the armies of the Caliph Yazid in the seventh century Battle of Karbala.
More on Iran
Related Topics:
Shia Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates – of resistance against oppression and injustice. But more so than ever this year, in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.
The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here by people and officials.
Image: Men and women weeped as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine
Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.
Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America, which it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israellaunched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.
“Death to Israel” chants resounded outside the mosque in skies that for 12 days were filled with the sounds of Israeli jets.
There is a renewed sense of defiance here.
One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression, even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”
Image: ‘I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him,’ one woman tells Sky News
A woman was dismissive about the US president.
“I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”
Pictures on billboards nearby link Imam Hussein’s story and current events. They show the seventh century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.
Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.
Officially Iran is projecting defiance, but not closing the door to diplomacy.
Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.
“We are very strong in defence, and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times. We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”
Image: Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani said it would be a mistake for Israel to attack again
But there is also a hint of conciliation. Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.
Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. Those hopes proved unfounded. The government is in control here.
For many Iranians it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.
Two American security workers in Gaza were injured after grenades were thrown during food distribution in Khan Younis, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has said.
In a statement, the US and Israeli-backed aid group said a targeted terrorist attack was carried out at one of its sites in southern Gazaon Saturday morning.
The two Americans injured “are receiving medical treatment and are in stable condition,” it said, adding that the delivery of aid was “otherwise successful” and that “no local aid workers or civilians were harmed”.
GHF didn’t say exactly when the incident happened but claimed Hamaswas behind the attack, adding: “GHF has repeatedly warned of credible threats from Hamas, including explicit plans to target American personnel, Palestinian aid workers, and the civilians who rely on our sites for food.
“Today’s attack tragically affirms those warnings.”
Later, the aid group posted a picture on social media, which it said showed “fragments of a grenade packed with ball bearings” that was used in the attack.
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
Asked by Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, whether the two injured individuals were responsible for handing out aid or were responsible for providing security, GHF said they were “American security workers” and “two American veterans.”
More on Gaza
Related Topics:
The aid group did not provide specific evidence that Hamas was behind the attack.
The US and Israeli-backed group has been primarily responsible for aid distribution since Israel lifted its 11-week blockade of the Gaza Strip in May.
According to Gaza’s health ministry, 600 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid from GHF sites as of 3 July, which charities and the UN have branded “death traps”.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press has reported that Israeli-backed American contractors guarding GHF aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:34
Contractors allege colleagues ‘fired on Palestinians’
GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it investigated AP’s allegations and found them to be “categorically false”.
Israel’s military added that it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm.
It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.
Hamas has said it has “submitted its positive response” to the latest proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza to mediators.
The proposal for a 60-day ceasefire was presented by US President Donald Trump, who has been pushing hard for a deal to end the fighting in Gaza, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set to visit the White House next week to discuss a deal.
Mr Trump said Israel had agreed to his proposed ceasefire terms, and he urged Hamas to accept the deal as well.
Hamas’ “positive” response to the proposal had slightly different wording on three issues around humanitarian aid, the status of the Israeli Defence Forces inside Gaza and the language around guarantees beyond the 60-day ceasefire, a source with knowledge of the negotiations revealed.
But the source told Sky News: “Things are looking good.”
Image: A woman cries after her son was killed while on his way to an aid distribution centre. Pic: AP/Jehad Alshrafi
Hamas said it is “fully prepared to immediately enter into a round of negotiations regarding the mechanism for implementing this framework” without elaborating on what needed to be worked out in the proposal’s implementation.
The US said during the ceasefire it would “work with all parties to end the war”.
More on Hamas
Related Topics:
A Hamas official said on condition of anonymity that the truce could start as early as next week.
Image: An Israeli army tank advances in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel. Pic: AP/Leo Correa
But he added that talks were needed first to establish how many Palestinian prisoners would be released in return for each freed Israeli hostage and to specify the amount of humanitarian aid that will be allowed to enter Gaza during the ceasefire.
He said negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in return for the release of the remaining hostages would start on the first day of the truce.
Hamas has been seeking guarantees that the 60-day ceasefire would lead to a total end to the nearly 21-month-old war, which caused previous rounds of negotiations to fail as Mr Netanyahu has insisted that Israel would continue fighting in Gaza to ensure the destruction of Hamas.
The Hamas official said that Mr Trump has guaranteed that the ceasefire will extend beyond 60 days if necessary to reach a peace deal, but there is no confirmation from the US of such a guarantee.
Speaking to journalists on Air Force One, Mr Trump welcomed Hamas’s “positive spirit” to the proposal, adding that there could be a ceasefire deal by next week.
Image: Palestinians dispersing away from tear gas fired at an aid distribution site in Gaza. Pic: AP
Image: A girl mourns the loss of her father, who was killed while heading to an aid distribution hub. Pic: AP/Jehad Alshrafi
Hamas also said it wants more aid to flow through the United Nations and other humanitarian agencies, which comes as the UN human rights officer said it recorded 613 Palestinians killed in Gaza within a month while trying to obtain aid.
Most of them were said to have been killed while trying to reach food distribution points by the controversial US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
The spokeswoman for the UN human rights office, Ravina Shamdasani, said the agency was not able to attribute responsibility for the killings, but added that “it is clear that the Israeli military has shelled and shot at Palestinians trying to reach the distribution points” operated by GHF.
Image: Palestinians carry aid packages near the GHF distribution centre in Khan Younis. Pic: AP/Abdel Kareem Hana
Ms Shamdasani said that of the total tallied, 509 killings were “GHF-related”, meaning at or near its distribution sites.
The GHF accused the UN of taking its casualty figures “directly from the Hamas-controlled Gaza health ministry” and of trying “to falsely smear our effort”, which echoed statements to Sky News by the executive director of GHF, Johnnie Moore.