Three years on from Abraham Accords, is a bigger prize in sight for Israel?

Published

2 years ago

September 15, 2023

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The Abraham Accords, when they were signed three years ago today, were a major step forward for peace in the Middle East.

For the first time, four Arab countries – the United Arab Emirates & Bahrain initially, followed shortly after by Morocco and Sudan – agreed to recognise Israel and work together for mutual diplomatic, security and economic benefit.

The success of the Accords has been chequered – new direct air routes have opened up and brought some investment and tourism benefits, academic partnerships have been established, and the earthquake in Morocco last weekend saw the Israeli government immediately offer military search and rescue support to one of their new allies.

There have been bumps along the road though – Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had a number of invitations to the UAE cancelled this year because of Emirati anger over Israeli force inside Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque, and many people hoped the pace of mutual benefits would have been faster than the reality.

But now there is a bigger prize looming into focus: a deal with Saudi Arabia.

Alongside the judicial reforms and violence in The West Bank, the diplomatic goings-on between Washington, Jerusalem and Riyadh is now one of the most discussed issues in Israeli media.

A normalisation agreement with one of the major powers in the Middle East would eclipse the Abraham Accords and Mr Netanyahu has made no secret of his desperation for a deal.

“Our hand is extended to all Arab States and certainly to Saudi Arabia which is vitally important,” he told me in an interview earlier this year.

“We have great opportunities to advance the peace in our region, peace between our two countries, the wellbeing of our peoples. I think it would change history.”

Diplomatic wheels are spinning

Whether a deal is close, or even possible, depends on who you speak to, but what isn’t in doubt is that the diplomatic wheels are spinning and there appears to be a desire on all sides to achieve something.

Just last week a senior US delegation travelled to Riyadh for talks on the deal, and they were joined by Hussein al Sheikh, a major figure in the PLO and close ally of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Separately, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held calls this month with Abbas and Mr Netanyahu, and on Air Force One, en route to Delhi for the G20, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters there is “still work to do” but revealed that “many of the elements of a pathway to normalisation are now on the table”.

More important than the deal itself will be the content of any agreement. Riyadh’s demands reportedly include US help to develop a civilian nuclear programme, delivery of advanced US weaponry and a NATO-style military pact with the US, whereby Washington would commit to defending Saudi Arabia if it was attacked.

In return, Washington is hoping that Saudi Arabia will dampen its growing diplomatic ties with China and Russia and help counter the threat from Iran.

Israel might want a similar pact with its American allies but will view a peace deal with Saudi Arabia as a significant step in strengthening its own security, even though there are already concerns in Jerusalem that a civil nuclear deal for Saudi Arabia will spark a nuclear arms race in the region.

Like the Abraham Accords, it would open up investment and trade opportunities between two of the leading economies in the region, and increase recognition in the Arab world of Israel as a legitimate state.

What a deal could mean for Palestine

The big outstanding question is what a deal might mean for Palestinians. Unlike the Abraham Accords, the Palestinian government has chosen to engage in the process this time in the hope of securing their own future.

Ramallah wants “irreversible” steps to advance its ambitions for statehood, according to reports, which would likely include US-backing to recognise a Palestinian state at the United Nations.

The US is encouraging Ramallah to focus its demands on Israel, rather than Washington, and has suggested the idea of transferring parts of Area C in the West Bank (currently under Israeli control) to Area A (under Palestinian control) or Area B (under joint control). It’s unclear how realistic or possible this would be, such is the large presence of Israeli settlements and military zones covering that land.

Either way, speaking to the Pod Save The World podcast a few days ago, Mr Blinken confirmed that “if this process is to move forward, the Palestinian piece is going to be very important,” to the US and Saudis, even if Israel will be hesitant.

The desire for a deal, from all sides, is one thing but there are some obvious and not inconsiderable obstacles standing in the way of an agreement.

Any deal would require the support of two-thirds of the US Senate and a significant number of senators, particularly Democrats, would likely oppose concessions to Saudi Arabia because of concerns over the country’s human rights record, notably the war in Yemen and the 2018 killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Other politicians are likely to resist any commitment that might risk dragging the US military back into the Middle East.

Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing nationalist partners in the coalition have already said they will oppose anything that gives concessions to the Palestinians, and so the embattled prime minister will have to look to opposition leaders to get the deal through the Knesset. It might be that the price of the deal is a collapse of the Israeli government and even the end of Mr Netanyahu’s time as prime minister.

After seeing his domestic opinion polls plummet this year however, and having been on the receiving end of criticism from world leaders, including President Joe Biden, for his attempts to ram through wide-ranging and controversial judicial reforms, it might be a last act of sacrifice he is will to gamble in order to save his legacy.

“It would be a quantum leap forward,” he told me in June. It certainly would be, but how far is Bibi willing to jump to get it over the line?

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Israel attacks Houthi targets at three ports and power plant in Yemen

Published

5 hours ago

July 7, 2025

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Israel attacks Houthi targets at three ports and power plant in Yemen

Israel says its military has attacked Houthi targets at three ports and a power plant in Yemen.

Defence minister Israel Katz confirmed the strikes, saying they were carried out due to repeated attacks by the Iranian-backed rebel group on Israel.

Mr Katz said the Israeli military attacked the Galaxy Leader ship which he claimed was hijacked by the Houthis and was being used for “terrorist activities in the Red Sea”.

It came after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued an evacuation warning for people at Hodeidah, Ras Issa, and Salif ports – as well as the Ras al Khatib power station, which it said is controlled by Houthi rebels.

The IDF said it would carry out airstrikes on those areas due to “military activities being carried out there”.

Afterwards, Mr Katz confirmed the strikes at the ports and power plant.

Earlier in the day, a ship was reportedly set on fire after being attacked in the Red Sea.

A private security company said the assault, off the southwest coast of Yemen, resembled that of the Houthi militant group.

It was the first such incident reported in the vital shipping corridor since mid-April.

The vessel, identified as the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier Magic Seas, had taken on water after being hit by sea drones, maritime security sources said. The crew later abandoned the ship.

The Houthi rebels have been launching missile and drone attacks against commercial and military ships in the region in what the group’s leadership called an effort to end Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Gaza.

Between November 2023 and January 2025, the Houthis targeted more than 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two of them and killing four sailors.

The Houthis paused attacks in a self-imposed ceasefire until the US launched an assault against the rebels in mid-March.

That ended weeks later and the Houthis have not attacked a vessel, though they have continued occasional missile attacks targeting Israel.

A renewed Houthi campaign against shipping could again draw in US and Western forces to the area.

The ship attack comes at a sensitive moment in the Middle East.

A possible ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war hangs in the balance and Iran is weighing up whether to restart negotiations over its nuclear programme.

It follows American airstrikes last month, which targeted its most-sensitive atomic sites amid an Israeli war against the Islamic Republic that ended after 12 days.

How did the Houthis come to control much of Yemen?

A civil war erupted in Yemen in late 2014 when the Houthis seized Sanaa.

Worried by the growing influence of Shia Iran along its border, Saudi Arabia led a Western-backed coalition in March 2015, which intervened in support of the Saudi-backed government.

The Houthis established control over much of the north and other large population centres, while the internationally recognised government based itself in the port city of Aden.

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‘We’ll never yield’: Millions of Iranians unite in mourning

Published

5 hours ago

July 7, 2025

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'We'll never yield': Millions of Iranians unite in mourning

Under the red flag of martyrdom, they beat their chests in memory of a fallen religious leader as the cleric recounts his fate outside one of Tehran’s oldest mosques.

Imam Hussein was tricked and martyred by his enemies in the seventh-century battle of Karbala. The crowd of grown men and women wept with grief as Hussein’s story was retold on Sunday.

Ashura is always deeply moving for the Shia faithful but this year even more so. It comes after the trauma of Israel’s surprise attacks on Iran.

There was a sense of emotional release and a chance for Iranians to come together in solidarity.

Ashura is also a reminder that Iran’s revolutionary leaders draw much of their power from the strength of religion in this country after a conflict its enemies hoped would see those same leaders toppled.

The festival has come at just the right time for its embattled government.

Iran’s supreme leader has appeared in public for the first time since Israel attacked his country. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was greeted with ecstatic cheers by his followers at Ashura prayers.

His supporters told us they welcomed his return. “I was so happy that I didn’t know what to do,” said one woman. “This caused our big enemies the United States and Israel to receive a great slap in the mouth.”

“His appearance on TV for Ashura,” a young man told us, “showed that all the talk about him hiding and taking the path of peace with the United States is not true and it shows that he is holding his position strongly and steadfastly”.

We had been given rare access to Iran among a handful of journalists who were let in after the 12-day war.

Its scars aren’t hard to find – buildings left with gaping holes where Israeli airstrikes took out members of Iran’s elite, one after another.

And Abbas Aslani, an analyst with close ties to the government, says there is a fear it may not be over.

“The Iranian government and the army are prepared for a new round of conflict, because they think that the other party, specifically Israel, is not to be trusted in terms of any ceasefire,” he said.

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At the Ashura ceremony, the crowd chants, “we’ll never yield to humiliation” – an age-old message for Iran’s enemies today as they brace for the possibility of more conflict.

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What is the possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal – and what challenges could lie ahead?

Published

11 hours ago

July 6, 2025

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What is the possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal - and what challenges could lie ahead?

An Israeli delegation is heading to Qatar for indirect talks with Hamas on a possible hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza.

The development comes ahead of a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump in Washington DC on Monday aimed at pushing forward peace efforts.

The US leader has been increasing pressure on the Israeli government and Hamas to secure a permanent ceasefire and an end to the 21-month-long war in Gaza.

Mr Trump said on Tuesday on social media that Israel had agreed “to the necessary conditions to finalise” a deal on a truce.

And Hamas, which runs the coastal Palestinian territory, said on Friday it has responded to the US-backed proposal in a “positive spirit”.

So what is in the plan?

The plan is for an initial 60-day ceasefire that would include a partial release of hostages held by the militant group in exchange for more humanitarian supplies being allowed into Gaza.

The proposed truce calls for talks on ending the war altogether.

The war in Gaza began after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 others hostage. Dozens of hostages have since been released or rescued by Israeli forces, while 50 remain in captivity, including about 30 who Israel believes are dead.

The proposal would reportedly see about half of the living hostages and about half of the dead hostages returned to Israel over 60 days, in five separate releases.

Eight living hostages would be freed on the first day and two released on the 50th day, according to an Arab diplomat from one of the mediating countries, it is reported.

Five dead hostages would be returned on the seventh day, five more on the 30th day and eight more on the 60th day.

That would leave 22 hostages still held in Gaza, 10 of them believed to be alive. It is not clear whether Israel or Hamas would determine who is to be released.

Hamas has sought guarantees that the initial truce would lead to a total end to the war and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

A Hamas official has said Mr Trump has guaranteed that the ceasefire will extend beyond 60 days if necessary to reach a peace deal, but there is no confirmation from the US of such a guarantee.

Possible challenges ahead

And in a sign of the potential challenges still facing the two sides, a Palestinian official from a militant group allied with Hamas said concerns remained.

The concerns were over humanitarian aid, passage through the Rafah crossing in southern Israel to Egypt and clarity over a timetable for Israeli troop withdrawals.

Hamas’s “positive” response to the proposal had slightly different wording on three issues around humanitarian aid, the status of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) inside Gaza and the language around guarantees beyond the 60-day ceasefire, a source with knowledge of the negotiations revealed.

But the source told Sky News: “Things are looking good.”

The Times of Israel reported Hamas has proposed three amendments to the proposed framework.

According to a source, Hamas wants the agreement to say that talks on a permanent ceasefire will continue until an agreement is reached; that aid will fully resume through mechanisms backed by the United Nations and other international aid organisations; and that the IDF withdraws to positions it maintained before the collapse of the previous ceasefire in March.

Mr Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that changes sought by Hamas to the ceasefire proposal were “not acceptable to Israel”.

However, his office said the delegation would still fly to Qatar to “continue efforts to secure the return of our hostages based on the Qatari proposal that Israel agreed to”.

Another potential challenge is that Mr Netanyahu has repeatedly said Hamas must be disarmed, which is a demand the militant group has so far refused to discuss.

Hamas has said it is willing to free all the hostages in exchange for a full withdrawal of Israeli troops and an end to the war in Gaza.

Israel rejects that offer, saying it will agree to end the war if Hamas surrenders, disarms and goes into exile – something that the group refuses.

Previous negotiations have stalled over Hamas demands of guarantees that further negotiations would lead to the war’s end, while Mr Netanyahu has insisted Israel would resume fighting to ensure the group’s destruction.