When will Ukraine break through in Zaporizhzhia or send troops across the Dnipro river?

Published

2 years ago

September 16, 2023

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Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now into its fourth month. Kyiv’s forces, bolstered by Western tanks and weapons, are putting pressure on Russian positions but have yet to achieve a major breakthrough.

But all across Ukraine, there is a sense that things could change very quickly. A section of defences could collapse, and fortunes could turn.

Sky News spoke to military expert Sean Bell about the different parts of the frontline and how each could be a flashpoint, from crossing the Dnipro in the west to the push to liberate Bakhmut in the east.

We’ve zeroed in on five locations and ask, is this where the war could be decided?

Can Ukraine break through in Zaporizhzhia?

The southern battle-zone in the Zaporizhzhia region is perhaps the most talked about part of the war at the moment.

Bell says this so-called land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas is “the least hard place” for Ukrainians to liberate the most territory.

Ukrainian forces are slowly but steadily pushing south but are coming up against defensive emplacements that Russia has spent months building.

The Surovikin line, named after a Russian general, extends through the area, a triple layer of defences comprising an anti-tank ditch, dragons’ teeth obstacles and then defensive positions in trenches.

If Ukrainian forces are able to pierce through in Zaporizhzhia and reach the coast of the Sea of Azov – or at least get close enough to hit the remaining territory with artillery – it would effectively cut Russian forces in half.

“If they can break through all those defences then suddenly there could be a rout of Russian forces in that land bridge,” Bell says.

There has been evidence so far during the counteroffensive that Ukraine has been keeping much of its Western tanks and best-trained troops in reserve, waiting for a breakthrough somewhere along the line.

Now, it seems, some of these tanks are being sent in to fight in the battle for Zaporizhzhia.

“You are never sure what will be the chink that will break the dam, you will never know until the crack emerges and the floodgates open.

“The question is whether the Ukrainians then have the stamina and the morale and the equipment to take advantage of it.”

Encircling a ruined city – and pinning down Russian forces

The city held out for so long. Waves and waves of Russian soldiers – many of them conscripts and former prisoners – were sent against Ukrainian defences and again and again Bakhmut held.

It was a controversial decision to keep defending the city, and there were many in the West who argued it was a mistake, but in the end it allowed Ukraine to inflict huge casualties on Russia and allow Kyiv time to get hold of Western tanks.

Russian forces, in particular Wagner Group mercenaries who are no longer involved, took the city at great cost.

Bakhmut does not exist as a city in the way it did before. Months of constant shelling by Russian forces have raised it to the ground.

It has little strategic value, but as a propaganda piece it is huge for Vladimir Putin.

Now, Ukraine is gaining ground around it. Could Bakhmut be liberated?

Bell says: “Bakhmut is one of those iconic places and Russia made a big thing of taking it, lost tens of thousands of lives taking it and will not want to lose it again.

“Most of the reports are the Ukrainian progress rather than Russian, but it doesn’t feel like there’s any momentum at the moment.

“Ukrainian pressure there is all designed to fix Russian forces in place.”

Is Russia pushing back in Kharkiv?

One of the main efforts of Russian forces – apart from holding back Ukrainian advances – is trying to take territory in the northeast, near Kharkiv.

Ukraine had great success in that arena last year, carrying out stunning advances around Kharkiv city.

Not only did they buy valuable breathing space for the ‘Hero City’, they liberated swathes of territory, including Kupyansk and Izium.

Now Russian troops are seeking to reverse some of those gains.

“The lines of communication there are very short for the Russian forces,” Bell says.

This is because of how close things are to the Russian border. Unlike in other parts of Ukraine, it’s much easier for Russia to resupply and communicate with its troops in the Kharkiv region.

In recent weeks they have claimed to have made advances, and fighting has been fierce and bloody.

Bell adds: “Russia has not been effective at conducting offensive operations since the start of the war – and that was when they had mercenary support with the Wagner Group.

“So it’s no great surprise that the Russian military are struggling to make progress.”

Crossing the Dnipro while Russia is busy elsewhere

One of the least talked about areas of the frontline is the River Dnipro, near the city of Kherson.

When Ukrainian forces swept through the region and liberated the city last year, the water became the new boundary between them and Russian forces.

This, Bell says, is why Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam in June this year, sending torrents of water over the landscape.

“By blowing the Kakhovka dam that basically said ‘right Ukraine you are not going to be able to cross the Dnipro and we are going to leave it relatively unprotected’.”

That may have been true a few months ago, but the land is starting to dry out, presenting an opportunity for Ukraine.

“It’s a lot more accessible now and almost certainly isn’t the Russians’ main focus,” Bell says.

“It leaves them vulnerable down that flank.”

There are even reports that Ukraine has managed to land troops on the other side of the Dnipro.

But while that is progress for Kyiv, it’s not the same as establishing a beachhead from which they can deploy tanks and heavy weapons.

Bell compared it to D-Day, when the Allies managed to establish control over a chunk of French beach in June 1944 and held it until they could get armour on the ground and push outwards.

But he added that the more Ukraine puts pressure on Russian forces there, the more Kremlin commanders will have to reckon with a difficult choice: weaken their forces elsewhere to shore up the Dnipro, or risk a breakthrough across the water…

Drones, explosives and raids on Crimea

While it’s not on the frontline, Ukraine has certainly brought the war to Crimea in recent months.

Wave after wave of maritime drones are harassing Russian ships in the area, the Kerch Bridge has been hit multiple times and Ukrainian special forces have reportedly struck on the peninsula itself.

Crimea is home to Vladimir Putin’s prized Black Sea Fleet and is of huge strategic value due to its location on the Black Sea.

It has been in Russian hands since it was annexed in 2014 but Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to return it to Ukraine.

Still, it’s very heavily fortified and will be very difficult to capture by force. Indeed, in the Second World War the Axis forces led by Nazi Germany lost 30,000 men in pursuit of Crimea.

So why is Ukraine attacking it? Because putting aside the prospect of seizing the territory, it helps their forces elsewhere.

Bell says “Ukraine has made clear its intent to take it, and what that does is it forces Russia to keep forces back to protect it.”

Russia might have 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine, but if it puts them all on the frontline then there is no one to defend Crimea if Kyiv’s forces make a breakthrough.

“The more that Ukraine threatens Crimea, the more Russia has to protect it and take its forces away from the frontline.”

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Fierce battle for frontline towns where Ukraine’s soldiers are surrounded

Published

9 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Fierce battle for frontline towns where Ukraine's soldiers are surrounded

Footage geolocated by Sky News showed Russian soldiers walking through the Shakhtarskyi neighbourhood on the outskirts of Pokrovsk on Thursday.

The video sheds light on the situation in this key frontline area, as Russian forces slowly encroach on Myrnohrad, the satellite town to Pokrovsk, and one of its last remaining outposts.

Videos geolocated by Sky News show fighting intensifying in recent weeks, as Russian forces attempt to gain control of the towns and their network of road and rail intersections.

Gaining control here would give Russia a base from which to access key cities further north that form part of Ukraine’s “fortress belt”.

Russian forces are advancing from all directions, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), with only one small opening to the northwest of Myrnohrad remaining.

Estimated to be only 3km wide by military experts, this withdrawal corridor is patrolled by Russian drone units which monitor the area for moving vehicles and those who may attempt to leave on foot.

Russian forces have been advancing on Myrnohrad since late October.

Video from a Ukrainian unit in Myrnohad, posted on 29 October, shows a Russian vehicle attempting to enter the town from the northeast. The tank is attacked and soldiers attempting to enter on foot are targeted.

Video posted on 3 November shows Russian forces on the ground in the south of the town.

By 8 November, Russian strikes begin to pummel the northeast of Myrnohrad, the location of many of the town’s high-rise buildings, at that time, held by Ukrainian forces.

George Barros, Russia Team & Geospatial Intelligence Team Lead at ISW, told Sky News that Russian strategy in Pokrovsk has been to erode Ukrainian logistical capacity using drones and artillery over the course of several months.

“After denying supply lines and degrading the frontline forces by essentially cutting them off from behind and starving them out in their positions, then the Russians move forward with their infantry and frontal assaults,” Barros explained.

Capture the flag

For a brief period, it looked as though Russian forces had captured Myrnohrad.

Videos posted on 13 November appeared to show a Russian flag flying over the Myrnohrad mine.

However, video posted the following day showed a Ukrainian drone shooting it down.

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to fight for control of Myrnohrad, with videos posted on the 19 and 20 November showing Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in the town, and Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian forces on foot.

While the exact numbers of Russian and Ukrainian forces in the area remains unclear, reports indicate that three key Russian units are active in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and are advancing on the towns from the north and south.

A number of Ukrainian units remain inside the towns, including the 145th Assault regiment and the 32nd, 35th, 38th and 155th Brigades. Reports indicate that more Ukrainian units have been moved into surrounding areas to hold the withdrawal corridor open.

Sky News reached out to the Ukrainian brigades still in Myrnohrad, but they declined to comment, citing military regulations.

Strategic significance

Natia Seskuria, associate international security fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), explained that the area is important for the Ukrainians to keep and the Russians to take because of its strategic position.

“Situated at a major road and rail intersection in Donetsk Oblast, Pokrovsk has functioned as a central artery for moving troops, equipment, and supplies to Ukrainian units deployed along the surrounding front.”

Russia “would gain a platform to redirect its offensive efforts toward Ukraine’s principal defensive urban centres… including Kramatorsk and Slovyansk,” Seskuria said.

Ukrainian and Russian soldiers in Pokrovsk have fought intensely and at close quarters over the last month.

In late October US-made Black Hawk helicopters containing specialist troops directed by Ukrainian military intelligence entered Pokrovsk to try to keep the town.

But as Russian troops advance, Myrnohrad is becoming the last stronghold of Ukrainian forces in the area.

Uncertain future

At least up until 12 November, there were still civilians living in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, despite strikes on buildings in both cities.

A post made on that day by the Donetsk state regional administration estimated 1,200 people remain living in Pokrovsk and 900 in Myrnohrad.

Evacuation is only possible with the help of the military or police, and it is not clear how many have evacuated in the 11 days since.

Barros of ISW says gaining Pokrovsk would increase Russia’s leverage at the negotiating table.

“If the Russians can successfully convince enough international leaders that, okay, the Russians took Pokrovsk, they’re going to take the next thing, and they’re going take the thing, so now let’s negotiate, then that is a strategic victory for the Russians.”

Production by Michelle Inez Simon, Visual Investigations Producer.

The Data x Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

World

Torrential rain triggers deadly flooding and landslides in Vietnam

Published

9 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Torrential rain triggers deadly flooding and landslides in Vietnam

Torrential rain, flooding and landslides has left more than 100 people dead or missing in Vietnam.

Rainfall has exceeded 74.8in (1.9 metres) in some parts of central Vietnam over the past week.

The region is a major coffee production belt and home to popular beaches, but it is also prone to storms and floods.

Fatalities have been reported in Dak Lak province and the neighbouring Khanh Hoa province.

Footage has been released by local police of a dramatic rescue, involving a drone which airlifted a stranded man to safety from an island in the middle of the Serepok River, Dak Lak province.

The government estimates the flooding has cost the economy around 8.98 trillion dong (£260m).

More than 235,000 houses were flooded and nearly 80,000 hectares of crops were damaged, Vietnam’s disaster agency said.

On Thursday, VietnamNet newspaper said that a suspension bridge on Da Nhim River in Lam Dong province had been swept away.

Video footage posted online showed the bridge being swallowed by the river in just a few seconds.

Naval forces have been deployed to help stranded citizens in Khanh Hoa, the Vietnam News Agency reported, adding that floodwaters had reached record highs in many areas.

Photos shared in state media reports showed residents, including children, sitting on the roofs of flooded houses in Khanh Hoa, Gia Lai and Dak Lak provinces.

A seven-year-old girl was rescued late on Wednesday in Da Lat, the capital of Lam Dong province, after being buried by a landslide, the Nhan Dan newspaper reported.

The landslide, triggered by heavy rain, knocked down and buried part of the house where the girl was staying.

She was pulled out after an hour and a half and was taken to hospital with a broken leg, according to the report.

World

Several airlines cancel Venezuela flights after ‘hazardous situation’ warning

Published

9 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Several airlines cancel Venezuela flights after 'hazardous situation' warning

Three international airlines have cancelled flights departing from Venezuela after a “potentially hazardous situation” warning.

The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Saturday issued an alert to airlines flying over the country, citing the “worsening security situation and heightened military activity in or around Venezuela“.

The US is poised to launch a new phase of operations related to the South American nation in the coming days, four US officials said.

The exact timing or scope of the operations, as well as whether President Donald Trump has made the final decision to act, have not yet been established.

Brazil’s Gol, Colombia’s Avianca and TAP Air Portugal cancelled their flights from the capital, Caracas, in north Venezuela, on Saturday, according to Flightradar24 and the official website of Simon Bolivar Maiquetia International Airport.

TAP Air Portugal confirmed it cancelled flights scheduled for Saturday and next Tuesday.

“This decision follows information issued by the United States aviation authorities, which indicates that safety conditions in Venezuelan airspace are not guaranteed,” the airline said.

The Trump administration has been considering Venezuela-related options to tackle what it has portrayed as President Nicolas Maduro’s role in supplying illegal drugs that have killed Americans.

Venezuela’s president has denied having any links to the illegal drug trade.

Mr Maduro, who is celebrating his 63rd birthday on Sunday and has been in power since 2013, has claimed Mr Trump is looking to oust him and that Venezuelan citizens and the military will rally against any such attempt.

Aeronautica Civil de Colombia said in a statement there were “potential risks” of flying in the Maiquetia area “due to the deterioration of security conditions and increased military activity in the region”.

Spain’s Iberia also said it was cancelling its flights to Caracas from Monday until further notice.

Reports of looming action have been growing in recent weeks as the US military has deployed forces to the Caribbean, amid heightened tensions with Venezuela. The Pentagon referred questions to the White House and the CIA declined to comment.

There has been a huge US military build-up in the region, including the US Navy’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, at least eight other warships, and F-35 aircraft.

The build-up in the Caribbean has been rumbling on for months, and Mr Trump has authorised covert CIA operations in Venezuela.

The US plans on Monday to designate the Cartel de los Soles, a Venezuela-based alleged criminal group, a foreign terrorist organisation for what the US sees as its role in importing illegal drugs into America, officials said.