When will Ukraine break through in Zaporizhzhia or send troops across the Dnipro river?

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2 years ago

September 16, 2023

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Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now into its fourth month. Kyiv’s forces, bolstered by Western tanks and weapons, are putting pressure on Russian positions but have yet to achieve a major breakthrough.

But all across Ukraine, there is a sense that things could change very quickly. A section of defences could collapse, and fortunes could turn.

Sky News spoke to military expert Sean Bell about the different parts of the frontline and how each could be a flashpoint, from crossing the Dnipro in the west to the push to liberate Bakhmut in the east.

We’ve zeroed in on five locations and ask, is this where the war could be decided?

Can Ukraine break through in Zaporizhzhia?

The southern battle-zone in the Zaporizhzhia region is perhaps the most talked about part of the war at the moment.

Bell says this so-called land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas is “the least hard place” for Ukrainians to liberate the most territory.

Ukrainian forces are slowly but steadily pushing south but are coming up against defensive emplacements that Russia has spent months building.

The Surovikin line, named after a Russian general, extends through the area, a triple layer of defences comprising an anti-tank ditch, dragons’ teeth obstacles and then defensive positions in trenches.

If Ukrainian forces are able to pierce through in Zaporizhzhia and reach the coast of the Sea of Azov – or at least get close enough to hit the remaining territory with artillery – it would effectively cut Russian forces in half.

“If they can break through all those defences then suddenly there could be a rout of Russian forces in that land bridge,” Bell says.

There has been evidence so far during the counteroffensive that Ukraine has been keeping much of its Western tanks and best-trained troops in reserve, waiting for a breakthrough somewhere along the line.

Now, it seems, some of these tanks are being sent in to fight in the battle for Zaporizhzhia.

“You are never sure what will be the chink that will break the dam, you will never know until the crack emerges and the floodgates open.

“The question is whether the Ukrainians then have the stamina and the morale and the equipment to take advantage of it.”

Encircling a ruined city – and pinning down Russian forces

The city held out for so long. Waves and waves of Russian soldiers – many of them conscripts and former prisoners – were sent against Ukrainian defences and again and again Bakhmut held.

It was a controversial decision to keep defending the city, and there were many in the West who argued it was a mistake, but in the end it allowed Ukraine to inflict huge casualties on Russia and allow Kyiv time to get hold of Western tanks.

Russian forces, in particular Wagner Group mercenaries who are no longer involved, took the city at great cost.

Bakhmut does not exist as a city in the way it did before. Months of constant shelling by Russian forces have raised it to the ground.

It has little strategic value, but as a propaganda piece it is huge for Vladimir Putin.

Now, Ukraine is gaining ground around it. Could Bakhmut be liberated?

Bell says: “Bakhmut is one of those iconic places and Russia made a big thing of taking it, lost tens of thousands of lives taking it and will not want to lose it again.

“Most of the reports are the Ukrainian progress rather than Russian, but it doesn’t feel like there’s any momentum at the moment.

“Ukrainian pressure there is all designed to fix Russian forces in place.”

Is Russia pushing back in Kharkiv?

One of the main efforts of Russian forces – apart from holding back Ukrainian advances – is trying to take territory in the northeast, near Kharkiv.

Ukraine had great success in that arena last year, carrying out stunning advances around Kharkiv city.

Not only did they buy valuable breathing space for the ‘Hero City’, they liberated swathes of territory, including Kupyansk and Izium.

Now Russian troops are seeking to reverse some of those gains.

“The lines of communication there are very short for the Russian forces,” Bell says.

This is because of how close things are to the Russian border. Unlike in other parts of Ukraine, it’s much easier for Russia to resupply and communicate with its troops in the Kharkiv region.

In recent weeks they have claimed to have made advances, and fighting has been fierce and bloody.

Bell adds: “Russia has not been effective at conducting offensive operations since the start of the war – and that was when they had mercenary support with the Wagner Group.

“So it’s no great surprise that the Russian military are struggling to make progress.”

Crossing the Dnipro while Russia is busy elsewhere

One of the least talked about areas of the frontline is the River Dnipro, near the city of Kherson.

When Ukrainian forces swept through the region and liberated the city last year, the water became the new boundary between them and Russian forces.

This, Bell says, is why Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam in June this year, sending torrents of water over the landscape.

“By blowing the Kakhovka dam that basically said ‘right Ukraine you are not going to be able to cross the Dnipro and we are going to leave it relatively unprotected’.”

That may have been true a few months ago, but the land is starting to dry out, presenting an opportunity for Ukraine.

“It’s a lot more accessible now and almost certainly isn’t the Russians’ main focus,” Bell says.

“It leaves them vulnerable down that flank.”

There are even reports that Ukraine has managed to land troops on the other side of the Dnipro.

But while that is progress for Kyiv, it’s not the same as establishing a beachhead from which they can deploy tanks and heavy weapons.

Bell compared it to D-Day, when the Allies managed to establish control over a chunk of French beach in June 1944 and held it until they could get armour on the ground and push outwards.

But he added that the more Ukraine puts pressure on Russian forces there, the more Kremlin commanders will have to reckon with a difficult choice: weaken their forces elsewhere to shore up the Dnipro, or risk a breakthrough across the water…

Drones, explosives and raids on Crimea

While it’s not on the frontline, Ukraine has certainly brought the war to Crimea in recent months.

Wave after wave of maritime drones are harassing Russian ships in the area, the Kerch Bridge has been hit multiple times and Ukrainian special forces have reportedly struck on the peninsula itself.

Crimea is home to Vladimir Putin’s prized Black Sea Fleet and is of huge strategic value due to its location on the Black Sea.

It has been in Russian hands since it was annexed in 2014 but Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to return it to Ukraine.

Still, it’s very heavily fortified and will be very difficult to capture by force. Indeed, in the Second World War the Axis forces led by Nazi Germany lost 30,000 men in pursuit of Crimea.

So why is Ukraine attacking it? Because putting aside the prospect of seizing the territory, it helps their forces elsewhere.

Bell says “Ukraine has made clear its intent to take it, and what that does is it forces Russia to keep forces back to protect it.”

Russia might have 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine, but if it puts them all on the frontline then there is no one to defend Crimea if Kyiv’s forces make a breakthrough.

“The more that Ukraine threatens Crimea, the more Russia has to protect it and take its forces away from the frontline.”

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Two security workers injured after grenades thrown at aid site, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation says

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2 hours ago

July 5, 2025

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Two security workers injured after grenades thrown at aid site, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation says

Two American security workers in Gaza were injured after grenades were thrown during food distribution in Khan Younis, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has said.

In a statement, the US and Israeli-backed aid group said a targeted terrorist attack was carried out at one of its sites in southern Gaza on Saturday morning.

The two Americans injured “are receiving medical treatment and are in stable condition,” it said, adding that the delivery of aid was “otherwise successful” and that “no local aid workers or civilians were harmed”.

GHF didn’t say exactly when the incident happened but claimed Hamas was behind the attack, adding: “GHF has repeatedly warned of credible threats from Hamas, including explicit plans to target American personnel, Palestinian aid workers, and the civilians who rely on our sites for food.

“Today’s attack tragically affirms those warnings.”

Later, the aid group posted a picture on social media, which it said showed “fragments of a grenade packed with ball bearings” that was used in the attack.

Asked by Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, whether the two injured individuals were responsible for handing out aid or were responsible for providing security, GHF said they were “American security workers” and “two American veterans.”

The aid group did not provide specific evidence that Hamas was behind the attack.

The US and Israeli-backed group has been primarily responsible for aid distribution since Israel lifted its 11-week blockade of the Gaza Strip in May.

It comes after Sky News analysis showed GHF aid distributions are associated with a significant increase in deaths in Gaza.

According to Gaza’s health ministry, 600 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid from GHF sites as of 3 July, which charities and the UN have branded “death traps”.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press has reported that Israeli-backed American contractors guarding GHF aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades.

GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it investigated AP’s allegations and found them to be “categorically false”.

Israel’s military added that it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm.

It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.

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Hamas gives ‘positive’ response to ceasefire proposal but asks for amendments

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8 hours ago

July 5, 2025

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Hamas gives 'positive' response to ceasefire proposal but asks for amendments

Hamas has said it has “submitted its positive response” to the latest proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza to mediators.

The proposal for a 60-day ceasefire was presented by US President Donald Trump, who has been pushing hard for a deal to end the fighting in Gaza, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set to visit the White House next week to discuss a deal.

Mr Trump said Israel had agreed to his proposed ceasefire terms, and he urged Hamas to accept the deal as well.

Hamas’ “positive” response to the proposal had slightly different wording on three issues around humanitarian aid, the status of the Israeli Defence Forces inside Gaza and the language around guarantees beyond the 60-day ceasefire, a source with knowledge of the negotiations revealed.

But the source told Sky News: “Things are looking good.”

Hamas said it is “fully prepared to immediately enter into a round of negotiations regarding the mechanism for implementing this framework” without elaborating on what needed to be worked out in the proposal’s implementation.

The US said during the ceasefire it would “work with all parties to end the war”.

A Hamas official said on condition of anonymity that the truce could start as early as next week.

But he added that talks were needed first to establish how many Palestinian prisoners would be released in return for each freed Israeli hostage and to specify the amount of humanitarian aid that will be allowed to enter Gaza during the ceasefire.

He said negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in return for the release of the remaining hostages would start on the first day of the truce.

Hamas has been seeking guarantees that the 60-day ceasefire would lead to a total end to the nearly 21-month-old war, which caused previous rounds of negotiations to fail as Mr Netanyahu has insisted that Israel would continue fighting in Gaza to ensure the destruction of Hamas.

The Hamas official said that Mr Trump has guaranteed that the ceasefire will extend beyond 60 days if necessary to reach a peace deal, but there is no confirmation from the US of such a guarantee.

Speaking to journalists on Air Force One, Mr Trump welcomed Hamas’s “positive spirit” to the proposal, adding that there could be a ceasefire deal by next week.

Hamas also said it wants more aid to flow through the United Nations and other humanitarian agencies, which comes as the UN human rights officer said it recorded 613 Palestinians killed in Gaza within a month while trying to obtain aid.

Most of them were said to have been killed while trying to reach food distribution points by the controversial US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

The spokeswoman for the UN human rights office, Ravina Shamdasani, said the agency was not able to attribute responsibility for the killings, but added that “it is clear that the Israeli military has shelled and shot at Palestinians trying to reach the distribution points” operated by GHF.

Ms Shamdasani said that of the total tallied, 509 killings were “GHF-related”, meaning at or near its distribution sites.

The GHF accused the UN of taking its casualty figures “directly from the Hamas-controlled Gaza health ministry” and of trying “to falsely smear our effort”, which echoed statements to Sky News by the executive director of GHF, Johnnie Moore.

Mr Moore called the UN figures a “disinformation campaign” that is “meant to shut down our efforts” in the Gaza Strip.

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Gaza: The man in the room acting as backchannel for Hamas in negotiations with US

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8 hours ago

July 5, 2025

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Gaza: The man in the room acting as backchannel for Hamas in negotiations with US

Behind the efforts to secure the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release is the remarkable story of one man’s unlikely involvement.

His name is Bishara Bahbah, he’s a Harvard-educated economics professor from Phoenix, Arizona.

In April, his phone rang. It was Hamas.

Since that phone call, Dr Bahbah has been living temporarily in Qatar where he is in direct contact with officials from Hamas. He has emerged as an important back-channel American negotiator. But how?

An inauguration party

I first met Dr Bahbah in January. It was the eve of President Trump’s inauguration and a group of Arab-Americans had thrown a party at a swanky restaurant in Washington DC’s Wharf district.

There was a sense of excitement. Arab-Americans were crediting themselves for having helped Trump over the line in the key swing state of Michigan.

Despite traditionally being aligned with the Democrats, Arab-Americans had abandoned Joe Biden in large numbers because of his handling of the Gaza war.

I’d reported from Michigan weeks earlier and been struck by the overwhelming support for Trump. The vibe essentially was ‘it can’t get any worse – we may as well give Trump a shot’.

Mingling among diplomats from Middle Eastern countries, wealthy business owners and even the president of FIFA, I was introduced to an unassuming man in his late 60s.

We got talking and shared stories of his birthplace and my adopted home for a few years – Jerusalem.

He told me that he still has the deed to his family’s 68 dunum (16 acre) Palestinian orchard.

With nostalgia, he explained how he still had his family’s UN food card which shows their allocated monthly rations from their time living in a refugee camp and in the Jerusalem’s old city.

Dr Bahnah left Jerusalem in 1976. He is now a US citizen but told me Jerusalem would always be home.

He echoed the views I had heard in Michigan, where he had spent many months campaigning as the president of Arab-Americans for Trump.

He dismissed my scepticism that Trump would be any better than Biden for the Palestinians.

We exchanged numbers and agreed to meet for lunch a few weeks later.

A connection with Trump

Dr Bahbah invited two Arab-American friends to our lunch. Over burgers and coke, a block from the White House, we discussed their hopes for Gaza under Trump.

The three men repeated what I had heard on the campaign trail – that things couldn’t get any worse for the Palestinians than they were under Biden.

Trump, they said, would use his pragmatism and transactional nature to create opportunities.

Dr Bahbah displayed to me his own initiative too. He revealed that he got a message to the Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas, to suggest he ought to write a personal letter of congratulations to President Trump.

A letter from Ramallah was on the Oval Office desk on 6 November, a day after the election. It’s the sort of gesture Trump notices.

It was clear to me that the campaigning efforts and continued support of these three wealthy men had been recognised by the Trump administration.

They had become close to key figures in Trump’s team – connections that would, in time, pay off.

There were tensions along the way. When Trump announced he would “own Gaza”, Dr Bahbah was disillusioned.

And then came the AI video of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sunning themselves in a Gazan wonderland.

“It is provocative and unacceptable,” he told me just after the president posted the video in February.

Trump must have thought it was funny, so he posted it. He loves anything with his name on it.”

Then came the Trump plan to resettle Palestinians out of Gaza. To this, he released a public statement titled Urgent Press Release.

“Arab-Americans for Trump firmly rejects President Donald J Trump’s suggestion to remove – voluntarily or forcibly – Palestinians in Gaza to Egypt and Jordan,” he said.

He then changed the name of his alliance, dropping Trump. It became Arab-Americans for Peace.

I wondered if the wheels were coming off this unlikely alliance.

Was he realising Trump couldn’t or wouldn’t solve the Palestinian issue? But Dr Bahbah maintained faith in the new president.

“I am worried, but at the same time, Trump might be testing the waters to determine what is acceptable…,” he told me in late February as the war dragged on.

“There is no alternative to the two-state solution.”

He told me that he expected the president and his team to work on the rebuilding of Gaza and work to launch a process that would culminate in the establishment of a Palestinian state, side by side in peace with Israel.

It was, and remains, an expectation at odds with the Trump administration’s official policy.

The phone call

In late April, Dr Bahbah’s phone rang. The man at the other end of the line was Dr Ghazi Hamad, a senior member of Hamas.

Dr Bahbah and Dr Hamad had never met – they did not know each other.

But Hamas had identified Dr Bahbah as the Palestinian-American with the most influence in Trump’s administration.

Dr Hamad suggested that they could work together – to secure the release of all the hostages in return for a permanent ceasefire.

Hamas was already using the Qatari government as a conduit to the Americans but Dr Bahbah represented a second channel through which they hoped they could convince President Trump to increase pressure on Israel.

There is a thread of history which runs through this story. It was the widow of former Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat who passed Dr Bahbah’s number to Dr Hamad.

In the 1990s, Dr Bahbah was part of a Palestinian delegation to the multilateral peace talks.

He became close to Arafat but he had no experience of a negotiation as delicate and intractable as this.

The first step was to build trust. Dr Bahbah contacted Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy.

Witkoff and Bahbah had something in common – one a real-estate mogul, the other an academic, neither had any experience in diplomacy. It represented the perfect manifestation of Trump’s ‘outside the box’ methods.

But Witkoff was sceptical of Dr Bahbah’s proposal at first. Could he really have any success at securing agreement between Israel and Hamas? A gesture to build trust was necessary.

Bahbah claims he told his new Hamas contact that they needed to prove to the Trump administration that they were serious about negotiating.

Within weeks a remarkable moment more than convinced Dr Bahbah and Witkoff that this new Hamas back-channel could be vitally important.

On 12 May, after 584 days in Hamas captivity, Israeli-American Edan Alexander was released.

We were told at the time that his release was a result of a direct deal between Hamas and the US.

Israel was not involved and the deal was described by Hamas as a “good faith” gesture. Dr Bahbah sees it as his deal.

Direct talks took place between Dr Bahbah and five Hamas officials in Doha who would then convey messages back to at least 17 other Hamas leadership figures in both Gaza and Cairo.

Dr Bahbah in turn conveyed Hamas messages back to Witkoff who was not directly involved in the Hamas talks.

A Qatari source told me that Dr Bahbah was “very involved” in the negotiations.

But publicly, the White House has sought to downplay his role, with an official telling Axios in May that “he was involved but tangentially”.

The Israeli government was unaware of his involvement until their own spies discovered the backchannel discussion about the release of Alexander.

Since that April phone call, Dr Bahbah has remained in the Qatari capital, with trips to Cairo, trying to help secure a final agreement.

He is taking no payment from anyone for his work.

As he told me when we first met back in January: “If I can do something to help to end this war and secure a future for the Palestinian people, I will.”