Connect with us

Published

on

When the Covid pandemic had many Americans declining to go to the grocery store in 2020, sales at online grocery startup Instacart rose 590%, and its venture capital valuation soared to $39 billion. As the San Francisco company prepares to go public this week, the world has changed. And so has Instacart and its deal.

In a twist for an internet-oriented retailer, Instacart’s enterprise valuation in its initial public offering isn’t outlandish: It’s as little as 15 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization charges for the 12 months that ended in June. At the top of the latest IPO price range, the enterprise value would be 16x EBITDA. And in another twist for a sector where the most-common IPO candidates are newly or barely profitable, but growing so rapidly that large profits look imminent, the company will need to rekindle sales growth after a lull in the first half of this year, its first slowdown since the Covid pandemic, Renaissance Capital analyst Matt Einhorn said, whose firm focuses on IPO research and runs an IPO-focused exchange-traded fund.

“They haven’t done anything wrong,” Einhorn said. “That was just a different time.”

For investors, the good news is that Instacart got much bigger during the pandemic, and its profitability is inflecting higher now. The better news may be that its valuation skyrocketed before a private financing that valued the company at a reported $39 billion in 2021 – and then sank as Covid fever waned.

There is some sign that Instacart’s IPO pitch may be working. On Friday, the company raised the price target for its deal by $2 a share, or 7.4% at the midpoint of the old and new price ranges, with Instacart now seeking a value up to $10 billion, according to its latest IPO prospectus update, and a plan to sell shares at $28 to $30 apiece, giving public investors a better shot at a profit. With roughly $2 billion in cash on the balance sheet, the company’s enterprise value would be as high as $8 billion at the top of its IPO range. 

It isn’t the only planned tech IPO of the week to now see some room to up its valuation range, with marketing automation company Klaviyo doing the same.

Low valuation defuses the risk that burned investors in DoorDash, a different Web-fueled food delivery business that went public in December 2020. DoorDash shares closed at $189.51 on their first day of trading, surged to nearly $250, and are now a bit above $80. 

Doordash is a good place to start in evaluating Instacart, according to Einhorn. 

Indeed, the numbers say Instacart is a lot like DoorDash, but at a fraction of the price.

DoorDash, which mostly delivers restaurant meals, posted a net loss in the first half of this year on sales of $4.17 billion, but made $687 million in EBITDA over the prior 12 months, according to its second-quarter report. At today’s stock price, Doordash is worth about $32 billion, about 37 times its EBITDA for the 12 months that ended in June and 21 times its 2024 EBITDA, as estimated by ISI Evercore analyst Mark Mahaney. 

Instacart, on the other hand, has generated $486 million in EBITDA in the last year, including $279 million in the last six months, reversing a $20 million EBITDA loss in early 2022 as economies of scale kick in. Almost three-fourths of revenue comes from transaction fees of about $16 an order, split between the store and the customer, and about 28% comes from advertising. And the company is asking for a valuation less than one-third as high as DoorDash’s, and about a tenth of what DoorDash commanded at its peak.

Instacart’s pitch is that online sales are only 12% of the $1.1 trillion Americans spend on groceries, mostly at stores like Walmart, Kroger and Aldi that are partners with Instacart. The company thinks that share can double, though its roadshow presentation doesn’t say exactly how soon. And, in a nod to growth worries, Instacart is also selling itself as a cash-conscious business that invests carefully, with an eye toward short-term returns, while building up its advertising business to keep building profit even as sales growth slows.

That reflects a hard-won skepticism about Web business models that had been powered by Covid-driven hypergrowth, Einhorn said.

“They won’t do 2020 growth again and probably will grow less than in 2021 and 2022,” he said. 

Industry sources are split on how fast Instacart will grow now, said Third Bridge analyst Nicholas Cauley. More aggressive experts consulted by the New York research firm think Instacart can boost gross sales by almost 20% this year and next, helped by market share gains that can be achieved with higher marketing spending after the IPO, he said. Relative pessimists think sales will grow by a high single-digit percentage.

“They have industry leading selection and the app is good for the user,” Cauley said. 

Indeed, the waning of Covid has tapped the brakes on Instacart’s growth  The company told analysts on its roadshow that the early part of this year was the first period when it did not think sales were inflated by Covid fears, either the original version or the less-intense recurrence driven by the Omicron variant in late 2021 and early 2022.

Gross sales grew just 3% in the first quarter and 6% in the second three months of 2023, down from the 18% average the company posted in 2021 and 2022.  Instacart’s revenue grew 31% in the first half of 2023, however, as it added high-margin advertising sales and other income.

The right valuation for Instacart depends on where the ultimate rate of sales growth falls, Einhorn said. 

In its roadshow presentation, which the company has made public, Instacart projects that its long-term business model will capture between 6.5% and 7.5% of each dollar a consumer spends in service charges and other revenue to Instacart (the rest is passed through to grocery stores who sell on the platform). Another 4% to 5% of gross sales will flow to Instacart in the form of advertising revenue, mostly from consumer products companies.

The company’s plans turn on getting loyal customers who belong to the company’s Instacart+ program, a $99 a year subscription plan that gives free grocery delivery and cash back on some orders, Instacart chief financial officer Nick Giovanni said in the investor presentation. He acknowledges that customers who began shopping at Instacart during Covid have been less loyal than earlier adopters, but said sales to new customers this year are 60% higher than in pre-Covid 2019.

“We expect to see some headwinds,” he said.  

Instacart+ may be the key to the future, according to Cauley. Members shop more often and spend more each time, and larger orders are more profitable because they use workers’ time more efficiently and require less marketing spend. 

“Once customers get on the platform, they tend to be sticky,” he said.

The company’s pitch turns on its ability to boost profits by containing costs as sales grow more slowly. Since its store partners buy and sell the food themselves, Instagram’s cost of goods is about the cost of running its Instacart.com platform, which is essentially a locally tailored marketplace of supermarkets that are its partners, and private-label store sites; and of delivering packages to consumers. 

The company says those costs will dip to just 22% of revenue, from 28% last year and 25% early this year, as it moves toward its “long-term target” levels. Its capital spending is very low, and its corporate overhead and marketing were 53% of revenue in early 2023.  The company believes it can double its EBITDA as a percentage of sales to 39%, according to its presentation.

“When a customer orders more than 20 items, everything about the process is different,” Giovanni said.

Instacart’s prospectus cites market research firm Incisiv as saying the online grocery market will grow between 10% and 18% annually through 2025. If Instacart regains sales growth of 18%, that would work out to 2025 revenue of $5.9 billion, gross profit of $4.63 billion, and EBITDA of $2.3 billion. Including the cash on the company’s balance sheet, that values Instacart at about three times EBITDA – way below DoorDash’s valuation.

At 10% growth in merchandise sales, which Einhorn thinks is closer to the mark, Instacart’s share of that revenue climbs to as much as $2.88 billion in 2025, with EBITDA of about $1.12 billion. Even that would value the company at only seven times 2025 EBITDA, and about 14 times EBITDA from the last four quarters, still a sharp discount to DoorDash. Grocery giant Kroger trades at 13 times net income.

So in a twist few would have predicted in 2020 or 2021, Instacart is trying to go public as a value stock, carefully managed to wring the best results from potentially modest growth. Investors will soon show whether they are buying.

Continue Reading

Technology

CNBC Daily Open: Everyone’s watching the Netflix deal

Published

on

By

CNBC Daily Open: Everyone's watching the Netflix deal

The Netflix logo is pictured at the company’s offices on Vine in Los Angeles, California on Dec. 5, 2025.

Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

“Who’s watching?” Netflix asks whenever someone accesses its site. On Friday, it was probably everyone with an interest in business, markets and television.

The key characters that had people hooked were Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery, which jointly announced that the streaming giant will acquire the latter’s film studio and streaming service, HBO Max. The equity deal value is pegged at $72 billion.

Netflix investors did not seem too jazzed about the deal, with shares dropping 2.89% on the sheer size of the transaction.

“Look, the math is going to hurt Netflix for a while. There’s no doubt,” Rich Greenfield, co-founder of LightShed Partners, told CNBC. “This is expensive,” he added.

But if one side is paying a lot, that means the other is receiving a bounty. Indeed, investors cheered the potential Warner Bros. Discovery windfall, sending the stock up 6.3% on the news.

It is not a done deal yet, and faces regulatory scrutiny. U.S. President Donald Trump said he would be involved in the decision, Reuters reported Monday, after a senior official from the Trump administration told CNBC’s Eamon Javers on Friday that they viewed the deal with “heavy scepticism.”

Despite this initial show of resistance, stranger things have happened in this administration, and the transaction might eventually go through. Should we get ready for Netflix’s next blockbuster: “The K-Pop Demon Hunters’ Song of Ice and Fire”?

What you need to know today

U.S. stocks had a positive Friday. The S&P 500 had its ninth winning session in 10 and rose 0.3% for the week. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 closed flat. Separately, third-quarter euro zone economic growth was revised upward to 0.3%.

Netflix to buy Warner Bros. Discovery’s film and streaming businesses. The total equity value of the deal is $72 billion, announced the two companies Friday. But the transaction could run into regulatory hurdles.

Core inflation in the U.S. cools down. September’s core personal consumption expenditures price index was 2.8% on an annual basis, 0.1 percentage point lower than expectations and August’s figure. Other numbers were in line with expectations.

A Ukraine peace deal is ‘really close.’ That’s according to Keith Kellogg, the U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, who reportedly said Saturday that there were two key outstanding issues: the future of Ukraine’s Donbas region and its Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

[PRO] Goldman Sachs unveils its top five global stocks. The picks are from China, Taiwan, India, Germany and the U.K. — and all offer an upside of at least 70%, according to the bank.

And finally…

The Sizewell A and B nuclear power stations, operated by Electricite de France SA (EDF), in Sizewell, UK, on Friday, Jan. 26, 2024. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The history of nuclear energy lies on British soil – does its future?

The U.K. once had more nuclear power stations than the U.S., USSR and France combined. It was a global producer until 1970 but hasn’t completed a new reactor since Sizewell B in 1995.

There is ambition to change that. Authorities want a quarter of the U.K.’s power to come from nuclear by 2050. The country is spreading its bets across tried-and-tested large nuclear projects and smaller, next-generation reactors known as small module reactors.

— Tasmin Lockwood

Continue Reading

Technology

Married millennials, here comes the crypto divorce cliff

Published

on

By

Married millennials, here comes the crypto divorce cliff

Fizkes | Istock | Getty Images

Divorce always raises thorny questions of how to divide marital property. In most cases, the remedy is pretty straightforward, requiring a surgical split between the two parties’ assets — although you can’t do that with the family dog or aquarium. But if you thought deciding who gets the dog was complicated, here comes cryptocurrency.

With the crypto wealth accumulation phase still new within many households, and the recent sharp decline in digital assets including bitcoin and ether dinging the confidence of investors who had just seen record highs, the path forward is murky. But for many married Americans, the current price of crypto doesn’t even register as an issue. That’s because the assets are easily squirreled away from an unsuspecting spouse.

“In divorce cases, crypto is creating the same headaches we’ve long seen with offshore accounts, except now the assets can be moved instantly and invisibly,” said Mark Grabowski, professor of cyber law and digital ethics at Adelphi University and author of several books about cryptocurrencies. He added that the problem is that ownership isn’t determined by a name on an account — it’s determined by who holds the private keys.

“If one spouse controls the wallet, they effectively control the assets,” Grabowski said.

Lawyers now have to subpoena exchanges, trace transactions on the blockchain, and determine whether coins were purchased before or during the marriage.

“Without that transparency and given the lack of reporting standards, it’s easy for one spouse to hide or underreport holdings. Courts are still catching up,” Grabowski said.

In theory, though, a crypto divorce should work like any other. Renee Bauer, a divorce attorney who has dealt with crypto splits, says the biggest question couples fight about is simple on the surface: who gets the wallet?

“That question opens the door to a mess of complications that traditional property division never had to deal with,” Bauer said.

The first challenge is figuring out what actually exists.

“A retirement account comes with statements. A house has an address. Crypto may be sitting in an online exchange or in a hardware wallet that one spouse conveniently forgot to mention,” Bauer said.

Tracing it then becomes part detective work and part digital forensics. Once the digital asset is authenticated, hashing out custody comes next.

“Some spouses want to keep the digital wallet intact, especially if they are the one who managed it during the marriage, while others want a clean monetary split,” Bauer said.

Courts are still figuring out the best way to handle this.

“There is also the security piece. If one spouse hands over private keys, they are effectively turning over total control. If they refuse, the court has to decide how to enforce access,” Bauer said.

She recounts seeing one lawyer who didn’t know much about crypto try to give the other spouse credit for the value of the bitcoin in another asset, not recognizing it’s not so simple, nor fair.

“Many divorce lawyers are slow to catch up and don’t even ask for disclosure. In my state of Connecticut, there isn’t a spot for crypto specifically on the financial affidavits. And for some, that could mean missing a valuable asset if they aren’t looking for it,” Bauer said.

Crypto hunters, PIs of digital asset divorce era

One of the few companies that can help locate a missing asset is BlockSquared Forensics. Ryan Settles, founder and CEO of the Texas-based company, says that the need for his services has increased exponentially since he founded his company in 2023. BlockSquared is dedicated exclusively to the crypto aspects of family law and divorce.

If a spouse (generally women, Settles says) suspects their partner is hiding crypto, their attorney may call in BlockSquared, which does anything from simple asset verification to deep investigations, tracing crypto across continents and into the murky world of wallets and exchanges. Settles’ company will then present the spouse with a “storyboard” that traces and timestamps the movement of cryptocurrencies.

Investigating whether one spouse has crypto is becoming increasingly common, he says, “especially folks involved in high-net-worth divorces and individuals with high net worth.”

Ryan Settles, founder and CEO of the Texas-based company BlockSquared Forensics, which offers services from simple asset verifications to deep investigations, often for women going through divorces who were unaware of spouses’ crypto holdings.

Ryan Settles

Ferreting out crypto in a divorce is only going to become more common. Settles noted that millennials hold the highest amount of crypto, and over the next six months, this age group will be approaching peak divorce years, converging with increased crypto holdings.

Another aspect Settles looks at is tax liability for the spouse, making sure that gets addressed during the divorce.

“There are a significant number of tax issues that most people, even attorneys, are not even familiar with,” Settles says, adding that the number of taxable events and reporting requirements from even a single transaction can come as a surprise to even the most seasoned litigators.

“Most attorneys don’t understand it, don’t understand the terminology. There is a whole lot of trust without verification going on,” Settles said.

Many of his cases involve wives who were not only unaware of their husband’s crypto dabbling, but when the assets are finally split, can be socked with a massive tax bill from capital gains.

“Unlike a savings account, the value of crypto can swing wildly in a single day,” Bauer said. “Selling crypto to divide proceeds can trigger capital gains. Holding it can trigger new arguments when value changes,” Bauer added.

Relatively relaxed Internal Revenue Service reporting requirements for crypto have not helped, though they are set to get stricter starting with the 2025 tax year.

“There are so many pieces. There are a lot of attorneys doing nod and smile and pretend to understand,” Settles said.

But companies like his are usually brought in only when there is a good suspicion of a spouse hiding significant crypto assets, he said. With a retainer fee of $9,000 and investigations that can cost $50,000, Settles says his services often cost more than an attorney.

Hard questions about crypto property splits

Roman Beck, a professor at Bentley University, where he directs the Crypto Ledger Lab, says that because this is a relatively new area, it’s best to look at it as courts not dividing the digital wallet but instead the assets the wallet controls.

“The law treats crypto much less exotically than people think. The starting point is simple: for tax and most property-law purposes, cryptocurrency is treated as property, not as money,” Beck said.

In divorce, that means bitcoin, ether, stablecoins, and NFTs acquired during the marriage are usually part of the marital estate, just like a brokerage account or a second home, with how that property is split depending on the state.

“Courts don’t split wallets, they split value,” Beck said.

The real legal question is not “Who gets the wallet?” he said, but ‘How do we allocate the economic value the wallet represents, and who is trusted with technical custody afterward?”

This leaves courts and lawyers to do one of three things: split the holdings on-chain, sell and split fiat, or offset with other assets.

“From a technical point of view, a wallet is just a set of private keys, often spread across hardware devices, mobile apps, or even seed phrases on a piece of paper. You cannot safely ‘share’ a hardware wallet or a private key after divorce,” Beck said.

Another wrinkle in a crypto divorce is the volatility of the underlying asset, with price swings in the currency making it more difficult for couples to agree on timing of a split, both as a couple and for the digital assets. In the past two months alone, bitcoin fell from a high over $126,000 to the low $80,000s, a 35% decline, and saw its year-to-date gains wiped out, with plenty of wild daily swings.

If couples are thinking rationally and not emotionally, among the simplest solutions would be splitting the wallet on a chain to create two wallets for each of the divorced partners so they can continue holding their share of cryptos, or drawing up a legal agreement that gives shares of a wallet to each party.

“They would not have to sell immediately,” Beck said.

However, often one party is not familiar with holding a wallet and thus not comfortable with that solution.

Similar to a house jointly owned which a divorcing couple may not want to bring to the market at a bad time, a couple could also agree to turn over crypto holdings to trusted third party to act as agent on behalf of both and to sell the crypto once the market has improved — once a certain agreed upon minimum value has been reached.

But Beck added that while from an economic and technical point of view there is no barrier preventing a divorcing couple from keeping crypto assets using any of these methods to allocate a legal percentage to each partner and delay liquidation until market conditions improved, both parties need to agree, and “most just want to be done,” he said.

Blockchain ledger transparency and the courts

One positive it that despite crypto’s reputation as a haven of anonymity, other aspects of digital assets work well for divorce proceedings.

“Public blockchains like bitcoin and ethereum are transparent ledgers. Every transaction is recorded forever. In other words, on-ledger data analytics turns the blockchain into a very patient financial witness,” Beck said. “That leaves a perfect audit trail if you know how to read the chain. … The real frontier isn’t the law, it’s the forensics,” he added.

Crypto’s adoption by many Americans — surveys in recent years from Gallup and Pew Research estimate that 14% to 17% of U.S. adults have owned cryptocurrency — is forcing family law to become more data-driven.

“The combination of transparent ledgers and powerful analytics gives lawyers and judges better tools to reconstruct financial behavior than they ever had with cash. The policy question going forward is not whether we can trace, but how far courts will go in requiring that level of scrutiny in everyday divorces,” Beck said.

Still, that doesn’t mean people won’t keep trying to hide assets. Settles says that often within 20 minutes he’ll see movement on the ledgers.

“They’ll start scrambling their assets, moving things, hiding things, moving them to tumblers. It’s quite fascinating,” Settles said.

And traceable.

Continue Reading

Technology

Week in review: Stocks rise, Meta gets real on metaverse, and Salesforce bounces

Published

on

By

Week in review: Stocks rise, Meta gets real on metaverse, and Salesforce bounces

Continue Reading

Trending