The tech IPO market is back and deal valuations are rising. Don’t get fooled again
Shopper using Instacart
Source: Instacart
As tech startups test the IPO market again, they are pushing up their valuations.
After last week’s successful market debut of chip company Arm, two of the most eagerly anticipated IPOs of former high-flying startups have upped their initial public offering valuations — online grocery firm Instacart and marketing automation company Klaviyo.
But don’t be fooled. In upping IPO ranges, tech stocks are still coming out humbled by the post-2021 IPO market slump. The slate of recent and planned tech initial public offerings will test the market’s appetite for new stocks, and experts say the overall IPO resurgence could be slow — and not without bumps.
Instacart and Klaviyo are both expected to make their debuts on the public market as soon as this week. Arm’s jump of nearly 25% during its first trading day Thursday marked the end of a quiet two years for tech IPOs. But these companies are coming to market in a much different environment than those that went public during the IPO, SPAC and meme stock frenzies of 2020 and 2021. Since then, companies have been contending with record-high inflation, interest rate hikes, concerns for the banking sector, and volatile markets.
The majority (70%) of 73 IPOs year-to-date were trading below their IPO price at the time of Arm’s deal, but most are smaller cap companies, and about half are based outside the U.S.
“We see this as a major turning point,” Matt Kennedy, senior IPO market strategist for Renaissance Capital, said of the first major tech IPOs of the year. “This has been the slowest IPO market in over a decade and we seem to be finally coming out of that.”
Investors are struggling to assess what companies are worth and are waiting for the IPO market to pick back up, said Ray Wang, principal analyst and founder at Silicon Valley-based Constellation Research.
“It’s a valuation game and what we’re all trying to figure out right now is, what are they really worth?” Wang said. Growth expectations are down, the availability of funding for these types of investments is down, and many investors are still sitting on the sidelines, he added.
Debuting in an uncertain market means companies and investors have had to say goodbye to the soaring valuations they saw when the IPO market was buzzing two years ago. But Instacart raised its valuation target on Friday to up to $10 billion from as much as $9.3 billion after Arm’s successful market debut. That is still a steep decline from the grocery company’s $39 billion valuation in 2021, and a 75% hit to be absorbed by venture capital investors. Klaviyo is targeting a valuation of up to $9 billion on a fully diluted basis, just slightly below its $9.5 billion valuation in 2021.
The rising cost of raising capital as a result of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes has weighed on future cash flows of companies and their overall valuations. The state of the global economy and the standstill in the IPO market since 2021 has also put a damper on valuations, Wang said.
The market product Instacart is selling
The good news: valuations look “a lot more reasonable,” Kennedy said, compared to two years ago when investors were basically willing to pay anything. He said investors are more focused on profitability than they were in 2021 and companies are recognizing that. Broadly, the tech pipeline has spent the last two years attempting to improve profitability in order to come to market while maintaining their growth and trying to pitch a reasonable valuation, he added.
Instacart is a prime example of this approach to a successful IPO, looking more like a value stock today than a high-flying, money losing tech startup.
“They really need to show that they have a strong fundamental base,” Kennedy said.
Instacart and Klaviyo have solid growth similar to what investors saw two years ago, and importantly, now these companies are not hemorrhaging cash, he added.
Instacart and Klaviyo’s lower valuations could be indicative of the outlook for other venture capital-backed companies and tech IPOs going forward — even those that are profitable, said Kyle Stanford, lead VC analyst at PitchBook. “There’s going to be a struggle for a lot of tech companies and VC-backed companies to come to the public markets and get a positive valuation jump from the get-go,” he said.
He doesn’t expect these highly anticipated public debuts to translate into an immediate broader resurgence of tech IPOs. The opportunity for tech debuts will likely be slower over the rest of the year than many people want to see, Kennedy said, though it can slowly gain momentum with a more typical IPO market possible by early 2024.
What to know before investing in IPO stocks
IPOs can have very volatile trading in the first weeks or even months after a listing. That may be especially true for some of the current deals since they’re the first major tech IPOs of the year and have a relatively lower proportion of shares being sold relative to market cap than historical averages, Kennedy said.
Arm’s stock price was down roughly 5% on Monday morning after its Friday first-day pop.
“My advice would be don’t feel like you need to chase the crowd,” Kennedy said. “And if you do, at least be aware that that’s what you’re doing and have an exit strategy in mind.”
There tends to be an initial excitement with IPOs during which the price gets bid up before losing momentum. Often it’s better to wait until after the first major pullback, Kennedy said.
While these tech IPOs are growth companies, their recent profitability doesn’t guarantee that they’ll be profitable in the long term. And according to Stanford, if the market doesn’t shift back to putting a premium on growth, they’re going to have a difficult time in the public market.
“These companies are risky, especially in a market where your two-year bond is paying almost 5%,” Stanford said. “It’s still an uncertain market and if inflation were to rise back up or interest rates continue to go back up, these riskier tech stocks are going to take a hit.”
Companies will need to show continued growth, profitability and a decent valuation before we see the IPO market back in full swing, Kennedy said.
Anne Wojcicki attends the WSJ Magazine Style & Tech Dinner in Atherton, California, on March 15, 2023.
Kelly Sullivan | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images
23andMe CEO Anne Wojcicki and New Mountain Capital have submitted a proposal to take the embattled genetic testing company private, according to a Friday filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Wojcicki and New Mountain have offered to acquire all of 23andMe’s outstanding shares in cash for $2.53 per share, or an equity value of approximately $74.7 million. The company’s stock closed at $2.42 on Friday with a market cap of about $65 million.
The offer comes after a turbulent year for 23andMe, with the stock losing more than 80% of its value in 2024. In January, the company announced plans to explore strategic alternatives, which could include a sale of the company or its assets, a restructuring or a business combination.
23andMe has a special committee of independent directors in place to evaluate potential paths forward. The company appointed three new independent directors to its board in October after all seven of its previous directors abruptly resigned the prior month. The special committee has to approve Wojcicki and New Mountain’s proposal.
“We believe that our Proposal provides compelling value and immediate liquidity to the Company’s public stockholders,” Wojcicki and Matthew Holt, managing director and president of private equity at New Mountain, wrote in a letter to the special committee on Thursday.
Wojcicki previously submitted a proposal to take the company private for 40 cents per share in July, but it was rejected by the special committee, in part because the members said it lacked committed financing and did not provide a premium to the closing price at the time.
Wojcicki and New Mountain are willing to provide secured debt financing to fund 23andMe’s operations through the transaction’s closing, the filing said. New Mountain is based in New York and has $55 billion of assets under management, according to its website.
23andMe declined to comment.
WATCH: The rise and fall of 23andMe
Hims & Hers
Shares of Hims & Hers Health tumbled more than 23% on Friday after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced that the shortage of semaglutide injection products has been resolved.
Semaglutide is the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk‘s blockbuster weight loss drug Wegovy and diabetes treatment Ozempic. Those medications are part of a class of drugs called GLP-1s, and demand for the treatments has exploded in recent years. As a result, digital health companies such as Hims & Hers have been prescribing compounded semaglutide as an alternative for patients who are navigating volatile supply hurdles and insurance obstacles.
Compounded drugs are custom-made alternatives to brand-name drugs designed to meet a specific patient’s needs, and compounders are allowed to produce them when brand-name treatments are in shortage. The FDA doesn’t review the safety and efficacy of compounded products.
Hims & Hers began offering compounded semaglutide to patients in May, and it owns compounding pharmacies that produce the medications.
Compounded medications are typically much cheaper than their branded counterparts. Hims & Hers sells compounded semaglutide for less than $200 per month, while Ozempic and Wegovy both cost around $1,000 per month without insurance.
The FDA said Friday that it will start taking action against compounders for violations in the next 60 to 90 days, depending on the type of facility, in order to “avoid unnecessary disruption to patient treatment.”
“Now that the FDA has determined the drug shortage for semaglutide has been resolved, we will continue to offer access to personalized treatments as allowed by law to meet patient needs,” Hims & Hers CEO Andrew Dudum posted Friday on X. “We’re also closely monitoring potential future shortages, as Novo Nordisk stated two weeks ago that it would continue to have ‘capacity limitations’ and ‘expected continued periodic supply constraints and related drug shortage notifications.'”
Him & Hers’ weight loss offerings have been a massive hit with investors. Shares of the company climbed more than 200% last year, and the stock is already up more than 100% this year despite Friday’s move.
Even before it added compounded GLP-1s to its portfolio, the company said in its 2023 fourth-quarter earnings call that it expects its weight loss program to bring in more than $100 million in revenue by the end of 2025.
Despite the turbulent regulatory landscape, Hims & Hers has showed no signs of slowing down.
On Friday, the company announced it has acquired a U.S.-based peptide facility that will “further verticalize the company’s long-term ability to deliver personalized medications.” Hims & Hers will explore advances across metabolic optimization, recovery science, biological resistances, cognitive performance and preventative health through the acquisition, the company said.
That move comes just days after Hims & Hers also bought Trybe Labs, the New Jersey-based at-home lab testing facility. Trybe Labs will allow Hims & Hers to perform at-home blood draws and more comprehensive pretreatment testing.
Hims & Hers did not disclose the terms of either deal.
Technology
Tesla recalls more than 375,000 vehicles in U.S. due to failing power-assisted steering systems
Tesla models Y and 3 are displayed at a Tesla dealership in Corte Madera, California, on Dec. 20, 2024.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Tesla is voluntarily recalling 376,241vehicles in the U.S. to correct an issue with failing power-assisted steering systems, according to records posted to the website of the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
In a safety recall report posted on the NHTSA website, Tesla said the recall includes Model 3 and Model Y vehicles that were manufactured for sale in the U.S. from Feb. 28, 2023, to October 11, 2023, and that were equipped with a certain older software release.
The records said printed circuit boards in the steering systems in affected vehicles could become overstressed, causing the power-assist steering to fail in some cases when a Tesla vehicle rolled to a stop and then accelerated.
When electronic power-assist steering systems fail in a Tesla, drivers need to exert more force to steer their cars, which can increase the risk of a collision.
Tesla told the vehicle safety regulator that it was not aware of any crashes, injuries or deaths related to the power steering failures, and that it was offering an over-the-air software update as a remedy.
The recall follows an earlier related probe and voluntary recall in China concerning the same systems.
President Donald Trump has appointed Tesla CEO Elon Musk to lead a team that is slashing the federal government workforce, and in some cases, regulations and entire agencies. Those cuts already affected the NHTSA, an agency Musk has long seen as standing in the way of some of his ambitions at Tesla.
The regulator has been engaged in a yearslong investigation into safety defects in the systems that Tesla markets currently as its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (Supervised) options. The features do not make Tesla cars into robotaxis. They require a human driver ready to steer or brake at any time.
The Washington Post reported on Thursday that Musk’s team has led mass firings at the NHTSA, reducing the agency’s workforce and capacity to investigate companies including Tesla by about 10%.
Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment.
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