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The rate of inflation has eased slightly to 6.7% confounding the predictions of economists that it would rise.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the consumer prices index (CPI) measure slowed in the 12 months to August, from the 6.8% figure reported the previous month, thanks to food rising at a weaker pace during the month compared to August 2022.

The pace of price growth in the economy, which has eased from a peak of 11.1% just under a year ago, was placed under the greatest pressure by surging global oil costs – being felt across the economy but most visibly at fuel forecourts.

Cost of living latest: Inflation falls in ‘one of the biggest undershoots versus expectations’

Economists, along with the Bank of England, had predicted inflation would tick upwards to 7.1%.

At 6.7%, inflation is running at its weakest pace since February 2022.

A key factor behind the decline was food and non-alcoholic drink prices rising at a slower annual rate of 13.6% in August compared to 14.9% in July.

Motor fuel costs rose by 0.2% between July and August 2023, compared with a fall of 1.2% between the same two months last year, the ONS said.

Analysis: A turning point in cost of living crisis?


Ed Conway - Economics editor

Ed Conway

Economics & data editor

@EdConwaySky

By my reckoning this is the biggest undershoot for inflation versus expectations we’ve seen since the beginning of the cost of living crisis.

For months, inflation came in higher than expected. Now it’s come in lower than expected.

At this point you could be forgiven for asking: what’s the point of economists’ predictions when they always get it wrong? And you would have a point. But at the very least the extent and direction in which they get it wrong gives us a sense of the momentum behind inflation.

Put it all together and this represents what economists would call a “dovish” moment. It implies, all else equal, that central bankers might be less inclined to raise interest rates.

Read more from Ed here

Spending calculator: See which prices have gone up or down

Core inflation, which is closely watched by the Bank as it strips out volatile elements such as food and energy costs, had been expected to be largely unchanged.

However, the ONS reported a steep decline in the core inflation measure from 6.9% to 6.2%.

The shift will be seen as reason for optimism by the Bank’s rate-setters that its 14 consecutive interest rate hikes to date, to cool demand in the economy, are having an effect.

Ahead of the inflation data, the vast majority of economists and financial markets had expected a final hike of 0.25 percentage points to be imposed by the Bank on Thursday.

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The rosier picture for inflation now casts greater doubt on whether an increase is guaranteed, giving some hope to hard-pressed borrowers including mortgage holders who have seen their payments mount during the cost of living crisis to date.

Data provider Refinitiv suggested market participants now saw almost an even chance of Bank rate being kept on hold.

Reduced rate hike expectations were also evident as the pound lost ground against both the dollar and the euro.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said of the latest data: “The rate of inflation eased slightly this month driven by falls in the often-erratic cost of overnight accommodation and air fares, as well as food prices rising by less than the same time last year.

“This was partially offset by an increase in the price of petrol and diesel compared with a steep decline at this time last year, following record prices seen in July 2022.

“Core inflation has slowed this month by more than the headline rate, driven by lower services prices.”

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Bank of England warns of ‘sharp correction’ for markets if AI bubble bursts

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Bank of England warns of 'sharp correction' for markets if AI bubble bursts

The Bank of England sees trouble ahead for global financial markets if investors U-turn on the prospects for artificial intelligence (AI) ahead.

The Bank‘s Financial Policy Committee said in its latest update on the state of the financial system that there was also a risk of a market correction through intensifying worries about US central bank independence.

“The risk of a sharp market correction has increased,” it warned, while adding that the risk of “spillovers” to these shores from such a shock was “material”.

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Fears have been growing that the AI-driven stock market rally in the United States is unsustainable, and there are signs that a growing number of investors are rushing to hedge against any correction.

This was seen early on Wednesday when the spot gold price surpassed the $4,000 per ounce level for the first time.

Analysts point to upward pressure from a global economic slowdown driven by the US trade war, the continuing US government shutdown and worries about the sustainability of US government debt.

More on Artificial Intelligence

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US government shuts down

The political crisis in France has also been cited as a reason for recent gold shifts.

Money has also left the US dollar since Donald Trump moved to place his supporters at the heart of the US central bank, repeatedly threatening to fire its chair for failing to cut interest rates to support the economy.

Jay Powell’s term at the Federal Reserve ends next spring but the White House, while moving to nominate his replacement, has already shifted the voting power and is looking to fire one rate-setter, Lisa Cook, for alleged mortgage fraud.

She is fighting that move in the courts.

Financial markets fear that monetary policy will no longer be independent of the federal government.

“A sudden or significant change in perceptions of Federal Reserve credibility could result in a sharp repricing of US dollar assets, including in US sovereign debt markets, with the potential for increased volatility, risk premia and global spillovers,” the Bank of England said.

British government borrowing costs are closely correlated with US Treasury yields and both are currently elevated, near multi-year highs in some cases.

It’s presenting Chancellor Rachel Reeves with a headache as she prepares the ground for November’s budget, with the higher yields reflecting investor concerns over high borrowing and debt levels.

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‘Is the Bank worried about recession risk?’

On AI, the Bank said that 30% of the US S&P 500’s valuation was made up by the five largest companies, the greatest concentration in 50 years.

Share valuations based on past earnings were the most stretched since the dotcom bubble 25 years ago, though looked less so based on investors’ expectations for future profits.

A recent report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that 95% of businesses that had integrated AI into their operations had yet to see any return on their investment.

“This, when combined with increasing concentration within market indices, leaves markets particularly exposed should expectations around the impact of AI become less optimistic,” the statement said.

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Gold smashes past $4,000 per ounce but there is good reason to be worried

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Gold smashes past ,000 per ounce but there is good reason to be worried

An extraordinary milestone was achieved overnight for the price of gold.

The spot gold price topped $4,000 an ounce for the first time on record – and futures data suggests no let up in its upwards momentum for the rest of 2025.

It was trading at $4,035 early on Wednesday morning.

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It has risen steadily since Trump 2.0 began in January, when it stood at a level around $2,600.

Sky News was quick to report on the early reasons for a spike in the price when heavy outflows were witnessed at the Bank of England.

Gold has traditionally been seen as a safe haven for investors’ money in tough times.

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There has been plenty to worry about this year – not all of it down to Donald Trump.

Analysts say the surge during 2025 can be partly explained as a hedge against the US trade war and the resulting slowdown in the global economy, which has hit demand for many traditional growth-linked stocks and the dollar.

Wider economic and geopolitical uncertainty, such as the tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the sustainability of US government debt levels, have also been at play.

Over this week, the political crisis in France and the implications of the continuing US government shutdown have been driving forces.

But there is one other, crucial, factor that has entered the equation, particularly since the end of the summer.

Many analysts say that gold has become a collective hedge against the possible implosion of the AI-driven boom for technology stocks in the US.

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Nvidia CEO backs UK in AI race

Despite a few wobbles, there have been almost endless headlines around record values for such shares, with most investment seen as a big bet on the future rather than current earnings.

Around 35% of the market capitalisation of the S&P 500 Index trades at more than 10 times sales, according to investment firm GQG.

AI leaders such as Nvidia and companies investing big in their capabilities see huge rewards ahead in terms of both productivity and profits.

But a recent report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that 95% of businesses that had integrated AI into their operations had yet to see any return on their investment.

Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at the spread betting provider Pepperstone, said gold’s $4,000 level would test appetite but the outlook remained positive for now, given all the global risks still at play.

“Selling gold at this stage has become a high-risk endeavour for one simple reason, conviction.

“Institutions, central banks and retail investors alike now treat dips as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of exhaustion. One only needs to recall the $3,000 level just six months ago, reached amid the tariff headlines, to understand how sentiment has shifted.

“This collective behaviour has created a self-reinforcing cycle where every pause in momentum is met with renewed buying.

“Gold has evolved from a traditional hedge during uncertainty into what could be described as a conviction trade, an asset whose value transcends price, reflecting deeper doubts about policy credibility and the erratic course of fiscal decision-making.”

It all suggests there is good reason for momentum behind this gold rush and that more stock market investors could soon be running for them there hills.

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It’s now almost impossible to work your way to riches, says report into growing wealth gap

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It's now almost impossible to work your way to riches, says report into growing wealth gap

Britain’s wealth gap is growing and it’s now practically impossible for a typical worker to save enough to become rich, according to a report.

Analysis by The Resolution Foundation, a left-leaning think tank, found it would take average earners 52 years to accrue savings that would take them from the middle to the top of wealth distribution.

The total needed would be around £1.3m, and assumes they save almost all of their income.

Wealth gaps are “entrenched”, it said, meaning who your parents are – and what assets they may have – is becoming more important to your living standards than how hard you work.

While the UK’s wealth has “expanded dramatically over recent decades”, it’s been mainly fuelled by periods of low interest rates and increases in asset worth – not wage growth or buying new property.

Citing figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Wealth And Assets Survey, the think tank found household wealth reached £17trn in 2020-22, with £5.5trn (32%) held in property and £8.2trn (48%) in pensions.

The report said: “As a result, Britain’s wealth reached a new peak of nearly 7.5 times GDP by 2020-22, up from around three times GDP in the mid-1980s.

“Yet, despite this remarkable increase in the overall stock of wealth, relative wealth inequality – measured by the share of wealth held by the richest households – has remained broadly stable since the 1980s, with the richest tenth of households consistently owning around half of all wealth.”

According to the think tank, this trend has worsened intergenerational inequality.

It said the wealth gap between people in their early 30s and people in their early 60s has more than doubled between 2006-08 and 2020-22 – from £135,000 to £310,000, in real cash terms.

Regional inequality remains an issue, with median average wealth per adult higher in London and the South East.

Could wealth tax be the answer?

The report comes seven weeks before Rachel Reeves delivers her budget on 26 November, having batted away calls earlier this year for a wealth tax.

Former Labour leader Lord Kinnock is among those to have called for one, in an interview with Sky News.

Read more from Sky News:
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What wealth tax options could Britain have?

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Options for wealth tax

But speaking to Bloomberg last month, Ms Reeves said: “We already have taxes on wealthy people – I don’t think we need a standalone wealth tax.”

Previous government policies targeting Britain’s richest, notably a move to grab billions from non-doms, has led to concerns about an exodus of wealth. The prime minister has denied too many are leaving the capital.

Molly Broome, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said any wealth taxes would not just be paid by the country’s richest citizens.

She said: “With property and pensions now representing 80% of the growing bulk of household wealth, we need to be honest that higher wealth taxes are likely to fall on pensioners, southern homeowners or their families, rather than just being paid by the super-rich.”

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