College football preview: Ohio State-Notre Dame, Colorado-Oregon and more unbeatens face off
Week 4 of the college football season is upon us and with it comes the start of conference play for most leagues and matchups of unbeaten teams.
There are eight matchups between teams that are 3-0 or better Saturday, the most in a single day since the FBS/FCS split in 1978, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
The most anticipated of those games games: No. 6 Ohio State travels to South Bend to take on No. 9 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC), and No. 19 Colorado faces a huge test at No. 10 Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
In Saturday’s other battles of unbeaten teams, Rutgers plays No. 2 Michigan at the Big House (noon ET, Big Ten Network), No. 22 UCLA is at No. 11 Utah (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox), No. 14 Oregon State travels to No. 21 Washington State (7 p.m. ET, Fox), No. 24 Iowa goes to Happy Valley to face No. 7 Penn State (7:30 p.m. ET, CBS), BYU is at Kansas (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) and Memphis visits Missouri (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU).
Our reporters preview Week 4 with a look at which teams have something to prove, defenses to watch and some of the week’s best quotes.
Who has something to prove as conference play ramps up?
Florida State: Seminoles coach Mike Norvell acknowledges his team was missing an edge last week against Boston College and lost focus after building a 21-point lead. The Seminoles were not in sync the way they were in big wins against LSU and Southern Miss. Norvell knows that simply cannot happen Saturday against Clemson, in a game that could go a long way toward determining who makes it to the ACC championship game.
Though the Tigers go into this game unranked in the AP poll, they remain the defending ACC champions and have not lost to Florida State at home since 2013. Norvell said he has addressed the shortcomings in the BC game with his team — starting with what happened once the Seminoles came back to take a 31-10 lead with 11:20 to go in the third quarter. From that point on, Florida State had its only five penalties of the game, and two turnovers, ultimately allowing the Eagles to climb back into it before coming up just short, 31-29.
“There was still a quarter and a half left to go in the game, and that’s the edge I’m talking about,” Norvell said. “I told the team after the game, that’s where the killer instinct has to set up. Like, this is done. I’m going to finish better than what it was, pissed off at the fact that we started off not as good as we needed to. And we didn’t have that.”
Norvell also pointed out three major coverage busts on defensive alignments they have practiced “190-plus times” since fall camp started. The defense could not contain BC quarterback Thomas Castellanos, either, as he threw for 305 yards and ran for another 95.
“That game didn’t need to be what it was, but maybe it was just the thing that we needed to show the importance of every snap and every rep and every opportunity,” Norvell said. “So I think our guys, they got the message, and now we have to go do something about it.” — Andrea Adelson
Alabama: For the first time since the 2015 season, Alabama enters a game ranked outside the AP’s top 10. The Crimson Tide have looked like anything but a College Football Playoff contender the last two weeks with an ugly 17-3 win at South Florida last week preceded by a double-digit loss at home against Texas. Jalen Milroe is back as Alabama’s starting quarterback after not playing a week ago.
His first challenge will be not turning the ball over as Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin visit Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday. But to be fair, the Crimson Tide’s problems run deeper than just their quarterback play after Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson got their shot last week and were pedestrian at best.
As important as anything this week against Ole Miss will be Alabama’s ability to run the ball and take the pressure off the quarterback. And when Milroe does pass, Alabama has to find a way to protect better. The Tide have allowed 12 sacks in three games. It should help getting starting guard Tyler Booker back in the lineup after he missed the South Florida game with back spasms. And on defense, Alabama has to prove it can slow down an explosive offense after Texas rolled up 454 total yards with Quinn Ewers passing for 349 yards and three touchdowns, and all the while, Alabama was unable to force any turnovers in that game. Ole Miss is ranked fourth nationally in scoring offense (52.7 points per game) and is ranked eighth nationally in yards per play (8.19).
First-year Ole Miss defensive coordinator Pete Golding knows the Alabama program as well as anyone. He was a member of Alabama’s staff from 2018 to 2022, the last four seasons as defensive coordinator. Under Nick Saban, Alabama hasn’t lost two games in September since his first season in 2007. But the last time the Tide lost their first SEC game of the season, 2015 to Ole Miss, they didn’t lose again and captured the national championship. There doesn’t appear to be that kind of talent on this particular team, but Saban’s teams almost always get better as the season progresses. With the Lane Train in town, it’s now or never if the Tide are going to make that kind of turnaround this season. — Chris Low
Ohio State and Notre Dame: Ohio State and Notre Dame met in the 2022 season opener, the first regular-season game for former Buckeyes linebacker Marcus Freeman as Fighting Irish coach. Both teams have knocked off the rust entering Saturday’s contest at Notre Dame Stadium, although neither has faced an opponent close to as talented as the other.
Buckeyes coach Ryan Day describes clashes where the talent gap is negligible as “matchup games,” and plenty should be revealed about both squads.
“I’m glad that we went through those three games to get to this point, with some of the new faces that we had,” Day said. “We did work out some of the issues, and so [I’m] excited to get on the field and go play this one. We have a pretty good idea of who our team is and where we’re at, so now it’s time to go play.”
Ohio State heads to South Bend feeling better about its offensive backfield, where quarterback Kyle McCord responded well last week after being named the starter, and running back TreVeyon Henderson is starting to recapture his 2021 form. But the Buckeyes still don’t know how McCord will perform in a difficult road setting, or whether new starting tackles will protect him, or whether a talented defensive line can start making more impact plays.
Notre Dame knows a bit more about itself after four games, including a tricky Week 2 trip to NC State. Quarterback Sam Hartman has been excellent so far — 13 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 71.1 percent completion rate — and the wide receiver group, a weakness for years, is showing promise with Jayden Thomas and Jaden Greathouse.
The Irish regain veteran defenders JD Bertrand and DJ Brown from injury, and have the cornerback talent with Benjamin Morrison and Cam Hart to cover Buckeyes star wideouts Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. Freeman, whose team limited Ohio State’s offense last year but generated only 10 points of its own, is stressing complementary football this week.
“For our defense, what we want to do is make sure that we limit the big plays,” he said. “We want them to have to truly drive down the field. Offensively, we want to have success. We’re not going to throw deep balls every play. We still want to win time-of-possession and those types of things that really factor into your success. But the mindset is different, because you know more about your team this year than you did last year for Game 1.” — Adam Rittenberg
Utah: After winning the Pac-12 the past two seasons and the presumed return of the quarterback of both of those teams, Cameron Rising, Utah had the profile of a preseason top-10 team and listed among the Pac-12 favorites. And for the most part, those things remain true.
However, without Rising in the first three games of the season, the Utes offense hasn’t exactly inspired confidence. The benefit of the doubt earned in claiming conference titles the past two seasons has started to erode. Without Rising, they were still good enough to grind out a win against a Florida team that last week beat then No. 11 Tennessee, but the longer he’s out the worse Utah’s odds of a three-peat become. He continues to practice, but his status for the game against UCLA on Saturday remains in question.
If Rising is back — and playing at his customary high level — Utah should feel good about already weathering the storm without him. If he’s still out or doesn’t look the same, things could go south quickly. — Kyle Bonagura
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys lost eight starters when 18 players went into the transfer portal after last season. On Monday, Gundy talked about Deion Sanders’ jolt at Colorado and how Gundy’s philosophy will likely change moving forward.
“We’re going to have to find ways to supplement it because history is telling us over the last couple of years that there’s a percentage of your team that was going to go somewhere else,” Gundy said. “And if they do, we have to try to find other guys to come in here that are in the same maturity level and age group and then get them in the system and try to get them coached up.”
But in the meantime, there’s still plenty of work to do this season — especially after last week’s stunning loss to South Alabama — starting Saturday in Ames against Iowa State. — Dave Wilson
Defenses to watch in Week 4
ACC: There is one undefeated ACC team that not many people are talking about (yet) that will need to rely on its defense to win Saturday. That would be Syracuse. In three games, the Orange have played exceptionally well, ranking No. 4 in the nation in scoring defense (9 PPG), one of six FBS schools giving up fewer than 10 points a game this season. The 27 total points allowed in its first three games also is the lowest total allowed by the Orange since the 1983 season. Syracuse was tested a week ago against Purdue far more than its first two games, but will face its biggest challenge yet against Army on Saturday. The Black Knights are coming off an impressive win over UTSA last week and are averaging 235.7 yards per game on the ground. Plus, Syracuse cannot afford to look ahead. Clemson is on the schedule next week. — Adelson
Big 12: Baylor and Texas are 2-2 in head-to-head matchups in the past four years, but Baylor has won both games in Waco, while losing both games in Austin. Recent history shows this might not be a pushover for the No. 3 Longhorns. Recent history also shows Baylor got off to a rough start, losing at home to Texas State, which has a dynamic offense, and losing late against Utah despite holding them in check all game. Texas has allowed 44 points, fewest through three games since 2010. So if Baylor, which has struggled to find a rhythm on offense this year, has a chance at another upset, the defense will have to deliver. Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers struggled last week against Wyoming, and Texas was able to lean on the running game late and pull away. Baylor currently is No. 105 in rushing defense, allowing 170 yards per game. — Wilson
Big Ten: When training camp began, Ohio State’s defensive linemen talked openly about becoming the nation’s best. “Overall, we’ve fixed all the screws that need to be tightened,” defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. told ESPN. So far, the defensive front hasn’t delivered “wow” plays — only three sacks from linemen, none from ends JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer — even though the unit ranks second nationally in points allowed (6.7 PPG). It’s time for the “Rushmen” to rise against a gifted Notre Dame offensive front. — Rittenberg
Pac-12: Colorado’s offense has been prolific in three games with coordinator Sean Lewis calling the shots, but the Buffaloes haven’t seen a defense nearly as talented or sophisticated as what they’ll see at Oregon. The Ducks have the speed on the back end to keep up with the CU receivers and will make things difficult up front on a Colorado offensive line that has allowed the second-most sacks in the country (16) and failed to create any space for the running game. — Bonagura
SEC: The only time Texas A&M has been tested on defense this season by a team with comparable talent, the Aggies gave up nearly 50 points in a disappointing 48-33 loss to Miami in Week 2. Granted, Auburn hasn’t been an offensive juggernaut, but this is Texas A&M’s SEC opener. The Tigers will again play two quarterbacks (Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford), and both are markedly different. Texas A&M’s defensive roster is filled with former 4- and 5-star prospects, and the Aggies are too talented to play the way they did against the Hurricanes. They missed tackles and botched assignments. They seemed to clean up some of those miscues last week against UL Monroe. A better gauge of how much they’ve improved will come Saturday. — Low
Notable quotes
Billy Napier: The Florida coach has tasted success, but he finally beat a nationally ranked team from the SEC last week when the Gators beat the Tennessee Volunteers 26-16.
“Success is a dirty process, and ultimately it’s rewarding. You have to go through some ups and downs along the way.”
Kyle Whittingham: The Utah coach wouldn’t speculate earlier this week on whether Cam Rising, the Utes’ starting quarterback the past two seasons who has missed the first three weeks because of injury, would return for Saturday’s game against UCLA.
“He practiced today, did a great job, but we will know nothing for 48 hours at the minimum. Then of course we won’t make an announcement. You’ll just find out on game day who the guy is. That’s the best I can tell you right now.”
Shohei Ohtani launched his 53rd home run to tie for the National League lead as the Los Angeles Dodgers erased an early four-run deficit Saturday night in a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants.
Ohtani pulled even with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber when the Japanese star connected for a 403-foot shot to left field in the sixth inning. It was Ohtani’s 29th homer at Dodger Stadium this season, a franchise record. He topped his own mark of 28 last year, when he finished with a career-high 54 on the way to winning his third MVP award and first in the National League.
“I think that the home run title will be great. But I think it’s just a byproduct of taking good at-bats, and he’s playing to win,” Roberts said. “If there’s a walk that’s needed and they’re not pitching to him, he’s taking his walks. And if they make a mistake, he’s making them pay.”
Ohtani also scored his career-high 140th run of the season.
Another remarkable season by the two-way star had the rest of his clubhouse touting the case for a third straight MVP award.
“I haven’t looked up any deep numbers or anything like that, but I think [the MVP is] Shohei,” said starter Tyler Glasnow, who rebounded from a four-run first inning with four scoreless innings to get the win. “He pitches and hits. I think it’s obviously Shohei, in my mind.”
Max Muncy‘s two-run homer in the first inning pulled Los Angeles to 4-2. Michael Conforto also went deep and Tommy Edman hit a tiebreaking shot for the playoff-bound Dodgers, who won their fourth straight and lead the NL West by four games over the San Diego Padres with seven to play.
The Giants stayed four games behind the New York Mets for the last NL wild card, with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks also ahead of the Giants.
Jack Dreyer pitched a perfect ninth for his fourth save.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
After four weeks of the season, we might have an idea about the true College Football Playoff contenders in each conference.
While a few of the top teams in the SEC and the Big Ten were off in Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners and Miami Hurricanes got the spotlight.
A surprise team in the 2024 CFP, Indiana put up big numbers on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Fernando Mendoza threw five TD passes in the 63-10 win. The Hoosiers still have the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions on the schedule, but Indiana passed a conference test in hopes of landing another playoff bid.
The Sooners are trying to jump into the SEC playoff picture in their second season in the league. Oklahoma opened conference play by rocking former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Auburn Tigers. OU sacked Arnold 10 times in its 24-17 win.
Miami, one of only two AP top-five teams in action this week, got a test from the 1-3 Florida Gators before closing out a 26-7 win. The Canes’ defense held the Gators to 32 yards in the first half and kept DJ Lagway under 100 yards passing.
Here are our experts’ top 12 College Football Playoff picks:
Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Oklahoma 5. Georgia 6. Oregon 7. Florida State 8. Texas A&M 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. TCU 12. Memphis
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Miami 7. Florida State 8. Indiana 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas 11. Texas Tech 12. South Florida
Bill Connelly: 1. Oregon 2. Ohio State 3. Ole Miss 4. Texas A&M 5. Penn State 6. Miami 7. Georgia 8. Texas Tech 9. LSU 10. Florida State 11. Indiana 12. Memphis
David Hale: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Oregon 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Texas 9. Indiana 10. Florida State 11. Texas Tech 12. Memphis
Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Miami 4. Georgia 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Indiana 11. Texas 12. South Florida
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Miami 4. Oregon 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Indiana 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas A&M 12. South Florida
Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. LSU 5. Oregon 6. Penn State 7. Florida State 8. Oklahoma 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Miami 5. Penn State 6. LSU 7. Oklahoma 8. Indiana 9. Texas Tech 10. Florida State 11. Texas A&M 12. Memphis
Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Is the U back?!
It’s been a minute.
With Miami’s win against rival Florida on Saturday night, the U — winners of five titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the top team in the country once again.
This is a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not only the top playoff contender in the conference, but also as the top team in the country. It’s still early, but statement wins are hard to come by, and Miami’s résumé now includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to date, Miami is one of the few teams that has looked like the total package.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn’t come easy against the Gators, but Miami’s defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC’s top playoff contender — at least until it’s decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State.
Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented.
Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t typically move teams if they don’t play, unless there is movement around them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the top spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas is still one of the best nonconference wins of the season, but that’s all the Buckeyes have at the moment. A win against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won’t impress the committee. A win against Texas will, but how much the committee values it on Selection Day depends on how the Longhorns fare all season.
Why they could be higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it’s going to be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week almost dead even in all three phases of the game.
Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the best chance in the country to reach the CFP (77%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first statement win against a ranked opponent, and the committee will note that it was on the road. It helped slightly this week that Tennessee showed no signs of a letdown in a lopsided win against overmatched UAB.
Why they could be lower: The win against the Vols might not be enough. Georgia’s other wins are against Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.
Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games, which would put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. What happens, though, if they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s still plenty of time — and opportunity — to impress the committee with wins against opponents such as Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It’s possible that Georgia could have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an extra week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 55% chance to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Georgia a 65.2% chance to reach the playoff, independent of other results.
Why they could be here: Florida State has been dominant, ranking No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric. The Noles also entered this week ranked No. 3 in strength of record. The Seminoles are passing the eye test but still need to beef up their résumé beyond a season-opening win against Alabama. The Tide were off this week but have played well against each of their past two unranked opponents, continuing to make Florida State’s win valuable in the committee meeting room. The Seminoles, though, won’t have another chance to impress the group against a ranked opponent until Oct. 4 against Miami.
Why they could be lower: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS team East Texas A&M.
Need to know: Georgia Tech doesn’t face Florida State or Miami during the regular season but could play one of them in the ACC title game. That makes the regular-season rivalry game between the Noles and Canes critical to the ACC race. Entering Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the best chances to reach the ACC championship game, followed by Florida State (24.1%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 66.1% chance to win. November games at Clemson and Florida no longer look as daunting.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ two best wins — against Clemson and Florida — are now against unranked teams with losing records. Florida State has looked better offensively, and its win against Alabama is better than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ defense, though, has been something the committee members would notice. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent more than 10 points this season and is fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Why they could be lower: Some questions remain about the offensive line, which features four new starters and hasn’t always given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he needs. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per pass attempt, and the Tigers are still searching for more explosive plays. LSU’s 17 explosive plays entering Saturday were the fewest in the SEC. LSU is No. 62 in the country in offensive efficiency. The selection committee looks for teams that are in the top 10 in both offense and defense.
Need to know: LSU has a chance to enhance its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, where a win would be its most impressive to date and provide some cushion for a tough upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after earning one of the best nonconference wins in the country last week at Notre Dame. The Aggies saw their playoff chances increase by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% chance to make the playoff. Still, the Aggies are clinging to one win to boost their entire résumé right now, as the rest of their schedule includes UTSA and Utah State.
Why they could be higher: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of metric record, which means the average top-25 opponent would have a 37% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record against the same opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as more impressive than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M had to win on the road.
Need to know: If Texas A&M doesn’t win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 team — and Notre Dame runs the table and also finishes 10-2 — the selection committee would use the head-to-head result as one of its tiebreakers and give the Aggies the edge. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives Texas A&M less than a 50% chance to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 51.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two quality wins against what could be CFP top 25 opponents. The win against the Wolverines helps separate OU from other contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it looks even better after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the road. The selection committee also appreciates star power, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and rushing touchdown in 10 straight games.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has been the story early, but the defense and its 10 sacks were the highlight in the win against Auburn, giving the committee a complete team to consider. The wins against Michigan and Auburn might also outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, though it was on the road and OU won both of its big games at home. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one great one — an argument that could also be made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.
Need to know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated start provides a critical cushion for a backloaded schedule that could include as many as six ranked opponents in the final seven games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 64.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Ducks continue to dismantle weaker competition, including their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place in the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and everything to do with dominant wins. The Ducks entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric, No. 3 in points margin and No. 2 in the country with 54 points per game. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency, making the Ducks one of the most complete teams in the country.
Why they could be lower: Montana State is an FCS team. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win against Northwestern amounts to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated because of the opponents the Ducks beat.
Need to know: Oregon has the best chance in the Big Ten to make the conference championship game (55.1%) and win it (34%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 52% chance to win — it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping them behind contenders with better résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s strength of record metric — and every team listed above is ranked in the top 20.
Why they could be lower: Penn State ranks No. 71 in the country in offensive efficiency — well below what’s typical of past playoff participants. No wins against Power 4 opponents would also hold the Nittany Lions back. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has just four touchdowns and one interception.
Need to know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee considers how teams win — and how they lose — and the Vols have managed to do both as well as can be expected. The committee isn’t going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia, though it will keep the Vols behind the Dawgs as long as their records are comparable. And the season-opening win against Syracuse looks even better after the Orange won at Clemson on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Vols are still missing a true statement win, though Syracuse can be a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day.
Need to know: The Vols’ chances of reaching the SEC title game are slim, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Tennessee just an 8.1% chance to reach the game and a 4.4% chance to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot in the playoff last year, though, as an at-large team, and can do that again, but it can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 66.3% chance to win. It’s the only game on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could be more impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric. They could also consider a bigger boost for Texas Tech, which won on the road, whereas the Hoosiers won at home. The committee would also consider the injury to Texas Tech’s starting quarterback.
Need to know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff team for the second straight season, they will have earned it with a more difficult schedule this year, as they still have to face Oregon and Penn State — both on the road. If IU doesn’t win the Big Ten title, it probably needs to at least split with those opponents to win a debate with another contender for an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 82.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The win at Utah is better than anything Texas has on its résumé — and the Red Raiders got it done with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s chances of reaching the Big 12 title game jumped to 40%, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech is also getting credit here for beating Oregon State in the same way Oregon did (the Red Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 a week before the Ducks upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a respectable Utah team, though, in the first Big 12 game for both teams helped Texas Tech enter the playoff conversation as the league’s new leading contender.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has had three straight wins against respectable opponents, including back-to-back wins against SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels also have a case for moving into the committee’s top 12.
Need to know: If Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, it could have trouble earning an at-large bid because it might not play another ranked opponent this season. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, though. If the Red Raiders were to lose a close game to a ranked opponent in the league title game, they would still have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they finish as a two-loss runner-up, though, they could lose a debate for an at-large bid with another contender with a better résumé.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 51.4% chance to win. It’s the only remaining game the Red Raiders aren’t favored to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State
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