MLB Power Rankings: AL, NL wild-card teams locked in battle
The Braves are in. The Dodgers are in. The Rays and Orioles are in — and the Brewers and Twins aren’t far behind. Welcome to the stretch run!
With a week and a half left in the season, these teams have locked up their spots in the playoffs — but others still have a lot to play for.
Which of the three AL West teams vying for the division title will come out on top? And which of the five teams battling for a National League wild card — the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Marlins, Reds and Giants — will secure the remaining two slots?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 24 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 97-55
Previous ranking: 1
That ugly sweep to the Marlins after clinching the division title has put the best overall record in jeopardy for the Braves as the Orioles are now breathing down their necks — although, with seven of their final 10 games against the Nationals, the Braves should be able to hold on. With an 11-strikeout performance in a win over the Phillies on Tuesday, Spencer Strider is up to 270 strikeouts, just six short of John Smoltz’s franchise record set in his Cy Young season of 1996. Strider’s 37.9% strikeout percentage is the second highest ever for a starter in a full season, behind only Gerrit Cole’s 39.9% in 2019. — Schoenfield
Record: 95-57
Previous ranking: 2
Manager Brandon Hyde told reporters this week that Jack Flaherty is being shifted to a bullpen role. The switch isn’t necessarily permanent, but even if it’s only a one- or two-game experiment, it’s one worth conducting. With John Means back in the rotation and looking solid, Baltimore has five viable starters, one more than it’ll need in a postseason context. Flaherty has a 6.68 ERA since joining Baltimore at the trade deadline and just wasn’t getting deep enough into games. He has made just five relief appearances in his career, so there isn’t much to go on in terms of his track record in that role. His 1.017 OPS allowed this season in first innings isn’t a great sign, but perhaps his stuff will play up as a reliever. Flaherty’s maximum velocity this season (97.2 mph) ranks in the 78th percentile among qualifying big league hurlers. — Doolittle
Record: 93-58
Previous ranking: 3
The Dodgers won their 90th game and clinched the NL West on Saturday, with 15 games remaining in their regular season. Their focus has since shifted to the playoffs, where their short-handed starting rotation could present problems. But let’s not jump there without appreciating what the Dodgers just did. This, if you remember, was supposed to be a transition year. They took a conservative approach to the offseason in order to create a runway for some of their younger players, and yet they breezed to their 10th division title in 11 years. Their bullpen had the fifth-worst ERA in the majors by the end of June, their rotation has been decimated by injuries all year — in addition to Julio Urias being placed on administrative leave in the wake of domestic violence charges — and yet the Dodgers just keep rolling. It’s truly remarkable. — Gonzalez
Record: 93-60
Previous ranking: 4
The four-game split with Baltimore last week had to register as a letdown in St. Petersburg after Tampa Bay won the first two games of the series. The split leaves the Rays still needing to make up sizable ground in the division race, the winner of which is likely to be the American League’s top seed in the playoffs. Besides the small problem of the Orioles continuing to play championship-caliber baseball is the disparity in remaining schedules. Sandwiched around two games at Fenway Park is a pair of three-game series against a very good Blue Jays team fighting for its postseason life. Meanwhile, the O’s have a four-game set at Cleveland before finishing up with six home contests against last-place teams: Washington and Boston. — Doolittle
Record: 85-68
Previous ranking: 5
Just two weeks ago, Houston manhandled division rival Texas to the tune of 39-10 over three games. The Astros vaulted into the AL West lead during that throttling for the first time this season. With their main weapons back on the field, it very much looked like Houston was situated for a stout defense of its World Series crown. Instead, the Astros have since played sub-.500 baseball and find themselves not just in a no-room-for-error three-team race for the division title, but just one short losing streak away from dropping out of the playoffs altogether. Meanwhile, manager Dusty Baker opted to give Yordan Alvarez a break, saying he didn’t like the way the star slugger looked at the plate or moving on the field. However it shakes out, the Astros’ stretch run looks more interesting than we would have anticipated. — Doolittle
Record: 86-66
Previous ranking: 6
The Brewers are close to securing another division title and playoff spot under manager Craig Counsell as they seem to be peaking at the right time, especially on the mound. Their pitching ranked near the top of the majors in ERA last week — they’ve given up five or more runs just once in their past 12 games. Brandon Woodruff has continued his solid return from injury, compiling a 1.06 ERA over his past five starts that included a complete game shutout followed up by a six-inning stint where he gave up just one run against the Nationals. If Rowdy Tellez and/or Carlos Santana (as a lefty) can get hot next month, Milwaukee could be a dangerous playoff team. — Rogers
Record: 83-69
Previous ranking: 8
The Phillies haven’t won three games in a row since late August as they struggle to officially secure that top wild-card spot. Michael Lorenzen has pitched himself out of the rotation and into the bullpen, so once the Phillies do lock up a playoff spot, it will be fascinating to see who manager Rob Thomson lines up as the next two starters behind Zack Wheeler in a wild-card series. Ranger Suarez has been the best of the rest of late with a 2.86 ERA over his past six starts, although the walk rate has been a little high (16 in 34 2/3 innings). Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber is up to 45 home runs, following up last year’s 46-homer season. He’s the first player with consecutive 45-homer seasons since Ryan Howard did it with the Phillies in four consecutive seasons from 2006 to 2009. — Schoenfield
Record: 85-67
Previous ranking: 7
With Toronto one of four teams — along with Texas, Houston and Seattle — fighting for three AL playoff berths, it’s easy to fixate on the Jays’ remaining slate, which isn’t an easy one. Toronto’s stretch run consists entirely of AL East rivals: the Yankees and Rays. Both opponents have plenty to play for, with the Rays angling for a division crown and the Yankees trying to extend their epic streak of non-losing seasons. Perhaps more important than the schedule for Toronto is simply trying to figure out what this Jays team is about. Just this month, it has had three winning streaks of at least three games, but the Jays were also swept at home in a crucial four-game series against Texas. So more pertinent than the opponents down the stretch is the question: Which Jays team is going to show up for the most important games of the season? — Doolittle
Record: 84-68
Previous ranking: 10
A streaky second half continued for the Rangers last week as they swept the Blue Jays in a crucial four-game series in Toronto only to lose the next four, including a sweep at the hands of the below-.500 Guardians. Texas’ offense dried up in that series, scoring just six runs over the three games. Mitch Garver had the roughest week — going just 3-for-24 — while Corey Seager wasn’t much better, hitting just .217 over a seven-day span ending on Tuesday. The good news for Texas came in the return of Adolis Garcia from injury. He was out less than two weeks and now is ready for the stretch run — and this up-and-down offense needs him. Now, if their bullpen can lock in, the Rangers might have a chance. Otherwise, it’ll be a long offseason. — Rogers
Record: 84-68
Previous ranking: 9
Let’s give a big shoutout to J.P. Crawford, who has had an outstanding offensive season. Thanks to a .378 OBP and 50 extra-base hits, Crawford ranks seventh in the AL in offensive WAR. (Offensive WAR includes a positional adjustment, so it doesn’t mean Crawford has been the fifth-best hitter; he’s not in the top 10 in runs created, although he does rank right outside the top 10 in OPS+). Crawford has added more power, pulling the ball with authority much more often, but he works the strike zone better than any Mariners hitter in a long time with 88 walks and a low chase rate. — Schoenfield
Record: 81-72
Previous ranking: 12
As the Twins turn their attention to ending their record 18-game postseason losing streak, it’s a mystery what their postseason lineup might look like. Byron Buxton’s injuries are an old story, but it’s still possible he could be patrolling center field in October. Carlos Correa, meanwhile, hit the IL because of a worsening case of plantar fasciitis. He, too, might be back in time for the playoffs. Finally, breakout third baseman Royce Lewis turned up with a hamstring problem and is headed for an MRI to determine the extent of the issue. All of these players are now suspended in postseason limbo. Needless to say, Minnesota’s chances of finally getting a playoff win look a whole lot better with this trio than without it. — Doolittle
Record: 81-72
Previous ranking: 13
The way the D-backs navigated through last week served as a perfect encapsulation of how wacky and unpredictable the wild-card races have been this year. They lost three straight to the lowly Mets, with the Cubs on tap, set to match up the top of their rotation against the back end of Arizona’s. It seemed as if the D-backs were destined to fade down the stretch. Instead, they swept the Cubs over the weekend, vaulting into the second wild-card spot.
“We’re trying to win out,” D-backs first baseman Christian Walker said after Sunday’s game. “We want to give ourselves a no-doubt chance, and we understand how hard it is and how quickly things change.” Do they ever. — Gonzalez
Record: 79-73
Previous ranking: 11
A 1-5 road trip crushed the Cubs’ chances of winning the division or hosting a wild-card series, but they’re still in decent position to make the postseason. Cody Bellinger’s slump has coincided with the team’s issues scoring runs. He has slugged just .308 over a recent 10-game span in which the Cubs went 2-8. A weekend series sweep by fellow NL wild-card contender Arizona really hurt, too, as the Cubs lost all three games while pitching their top two starters and the Diamondbacks were missing both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Marcus Stroman has returned from a rib cartilage injury and will pitch out of the bullpen. With Michael Fulmer and closer Adbert Alzolay on the IL, Stroman could get some meaningful innings down the stretch. — Rogers
Record: 79-74
Previous ranking: 16
A weekend demolition of the Braves kept the Marlins in the thick of the wild-card race. They scored 36 runs in the three-game sweep as Jazz Chisholm became the first Marlins player with grand slams in consecutive games and Luis Arraez ripped out eight hits, including three home runs. With an off-day on Thursday and another one on Monday, the Marlins will also be able to bypass a couple of starts from the bottom of the rotation, and a concluding six-game road trip against the Mets and Pirates isn’t the toughest of final weeks. Miami has a good shot at its first full-season playoff berth since 2003. — Schoenfield
Record: 79-75
Previous ranking: 14
The Reds are hanging around the playoff race and could make a push in the final week, considering their final eight games come against teams below .500. However, they haven’t had a late-season defining stretch just yet. After getting swept by the Cardinals recently, they won their next two series and took Game 1 against the Twins on Monday before losing on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s been that kind of back-and-forth for them for quite some time. The team’s waiver claims haven’t exactly panned out, either, as Harrison Bader is on the IL and Hunter Renfroe was DFA’d this week. Bader hit .161 over 14 games for the Reds, who will have to rely on their young players to reach the postseason. The return of Matt McLain from an oblique injury will help. — Rogers
Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 18
Spoilers is not a role that you’d traditionally associate with the Yankees, but that’s where they’re at. New York’s homestretch includes a number of games against teams engaged in close battles to get into the postseason — Arizona and AL East rival Toronto. When you tack on the Yankees’ quest to avoid their first losing record since 1992, New York’s remaining schedule will have a little drama around it. The quest for .500 is likely to come down to the final weekend when the Bombers finish their season with a three-game series against the triple-digit-losing Royals. It’s not likely to conjure old memories of George Brett against Goose Gossage but, hey, you never know. — Doolittle
Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 15
The Giants lost for the 11th time this month on Tuesday night, but the biggest blow occurred in the third inning, when Alex Cobb exited with discomfort in his hip. The next day, he was placed on the IL, essentially ending his season. The regular season, at least. Cobb has put up a 3.87 ERA in 151 1/3 innings this year, joining Logan Webb as the only reliable, consistent starters in the Giants’ staff. On the night he went down, the Giants dropped to three games out of the final wild-card spot with three teams in front of them. Their path just got a lot more difficult. — Gonzalez
Record: 75-78
Previous ranking: 17
With Triston Casas joining Jarren Duran on the IL, and Boston searching for its next roster architect, it’s hard to look at the current Red Sox group with an eye toward the future. One player who will be there going forward is Masataka Yoshida, who’s wrapping up his first MLB campaign. He has mostly been as advertised, which is a tepid observation. He has hit for a decent average but displayed limited patience and only occasional power. It’s an overall above-average hitting profile. The problem is that Yoshida can’t run and that limits his value in the field and on the bases. The bottom line: He’s at just 1.0 bWAR as the season winds down. — Doolittle
Record: 75-78
Previous ranking: 19
With a 10-1 rout over the lowly A’s on Sunday, the Padres became the last team in the majors to win a fourth consecutive game. They proceeded to win their next three, running their winning streak to seven games and counting, which begs the question: Where was this earlier? Recent surge aside, the Padres find themselves 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with four teams to jump and only nine games remaining in their season. They could make this really, really interesting if they win out, but in all likelihood this will end up as one final tease before the conclusion of a thoroughly disappointing season. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove have been shut down, Manny Machado has been relegated to DH duties because of a balky elbow, and the Padres, helped by a soft schedule at the end, are probably too late. — Gonzalez
Record: 72-81
Previous ranking: 20
Cleveland outfielders have combined for 18 home runs — more than 20 fewer than any other team — after hitting 28 last season (which wasn’t the lowest in the majors; Tigers outfielders hit 23). The last outfield with fewer than 20 home runs: the 1992 White Sox, featuring Tim Raines and Lance Johnson, who hit 19. The 1989 Astros hit 18, and the last team with fewer than 18 was the 1976 White Sox with 17. This blurb has been brought to you by Cleveland Public Power. — Schoenfield
Record: 71-81
Previous ranking: 22
One Tiger who wishes the season wasn’t going to end for Detroit in a couple of weeks is second-year slugger Spencer Torkelson — the former top overall pick is building the most sustained momentum of his young career. Since the All-Star break, Torkelson has hit .237/.319/.509 with 17 homers in 62 games. The pace has picked up even more in September, during which he’s at .265/.320/.544. Since the trade deadline, Torkelson’s OPS ranks in the top 30 of the majors. Going forward, one split you’d like to see ironed out in Torkelson’s profile is his awkward home/road disparity. So far as a big leaguer, Torkelson has a .790 road OPS but just .604 at Comerica Park where, you know, he plays half his games. — Doolittle
Record: 71-81
Previous ranking: 23
For all New York’s disappointing results this season, Kodai Senga has been one of the few Mets who has matched expectations — if not exceeded them. With a 2.95 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 155 1/3 innings, he’ll get some down-ballot Cy Young votes. Coming over from Japan, where pitchers normally start once per week, he was handled carefully by the Mets, as he has made just three starts on four days of rest. The ghost forkball has been as advertised and rates as one of the best wipeout pitches in MLB, as batters have hit .112 against it with no home runs and 104 strikeouts in 177 PAs that end with that pitch (through Tuesday). — Schoenfield
Record: 69-83
Previous ranking: 21
On Friday afternoon, Anthony Rendon revealed he has been dealing with a tibia fracture, a diagnosis — from a fifth doctor of his own choosing — that ran in contrast with the Angels’ description of a deep bone bruise over these past two months. Later that night, media returned to the clubhouse to find that Shohei Ohtani’s locker had been cleared out, the product, we learned the following day, of him shutting it down as a hitter and shifting his focus to elbow surgery. Mike Trout, meanwhile, is running out of time in his hopes of returning from the hamate fracture he suffered in early July.
The Angels are a mess of epic proportions, as illustrated by the state of their best players. Ohtani is heading toward free agency, Trout has struggled mightily to stay healthy these past three years, and Rendon’s contract, with $114 million remaining over the next three years, feels untenable. The Angels, meanwhile, have secured their eighth consecutive losing season, the longest streak in franchise history. — Gonzalez
Record: 71-81
Previous ranking: 24
The Pirates have not mailed it in down the stretch. After beating the Nationals three straight times last week, they played the Yankees tough in a series loss, getting outscored only 15-10 over the three games. They’ve pitched well over that timeframe, compiling an ERA just under 4.00 for the week ending on Tuesday. Once again, it was righty Mitch Keller leading the way. He tossed eight shutout innings in a 2-0 win against the Nats. It came after a blowup against the vaunted Braves offense. Take that game away and, much like the whole year, Keller has been fantastic in the final weeks of the season. He’s the unquestioned ace of the team moving forward. — Rogers
Record: 67-85
Previous ranking: 25
Adam Wainwright’s 200th win was a thing of beauty. He made it through seven innings on Monday while giving up four hits and two walks in a tight affair with the Brewers. Nursing a 1-0 lead most of the way, his curveball showed its old life, especially in the later innings when it looked like the veteran would not be denied. In the process, he surpassed 100 innings on the season over 21 starts. The 41-year-old is retiring after compiling a 7.40 ERA in 2023, but he’ll have his last outing in St. Louis as a lasting memory: a 1-0 win to secure No. 200. — Rogers
Record: 68-85
Previous ranking: 26
Jackson Rutledge, the 6-foot-8 right-hander who was the team’s first-round pick in 2019, had an up-and-down career in the minors with injuries and inconsistent results. After posting a 3.71 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A, the Nationals are giving him a look down the stretch. His MLB debut was rough as he allowed 10 hits and seven runs in 3 2/3 innings, but he bounced back against the White Sox, allowing two runs (both home runs) in 6 1/3 innings. His fastball has averaged 95 mph, but he’ll need to improve the changeup to give him another off-speed weapon. Batters are 8-for-16 against it with two home runs. He’s probably more of a deep rotation option for next season. — Schoenfield
Record: 58-95
Previous ranking: 27
Surprisingly, Mike Clevinger has been the team’s second most valuable — and consistent — player after Luis Robert Jr. His latest start was his best as he pitched a complete game against the Nationals on Monday, coming within one out of a shutout. It was the White Sox’s first complete game of the season and Clevinger’s third of his career. His 3.42 ERA over 22 starts would rank seventh in the AL if not for an early-season injury that prevents him from qualifying. He and the team have a mutual option for next season, but Clevinger isn’t likely to exercise his end of it. In a miserable season in Chicago, he has been very good. — Rogers
Record: 56-96
Previous ranking: 28
The Rockies are barreling toward their first 100-loss season in franchise history, but there has been one very clear bright spot lately — Nolan Jones, the rookie outfielder acquired in a swap of young position players with the Guardians last November, has slashed .286/.374/.524 in 96 games since his call-up in late May, hitting 17 home runs and stealing 17 bases. He’s the first rookie in franchise history to accumulate at least 15 homers and 15 steals in the same season, and he has a shot at 20/20 despite spending most of the first two months in the minor leagues. Two Mondays ago, he also recorded the fastest outfield assist of 2023. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-102
Previous ranking: 29
With Salvador Perez suffering a concussion and Freddy Fermin fracturing his finger, the Royals have two of the unlikeliest major leaguers of 2023 in catchers Logan Porter and Tyler Cropley. Porter, a former clubhouse attendant for the Royals’ rookie league team in Arizona, was signed out of Utah Tech in 2018 — with the idea that he would be a bullpen catcher. The Royals told him he might never get in a game — but he did. He hit .301 in the minors in 2022 and .232 this year in Triple-A before getting called up and hitting his first home run on Sept. 16. Cropley, meanwhile, began 2023 in Double-A … as the bullpen catcher. He was called up Sept. 9, but he didn’t get in a game and was designated for assignment two days later. Those injuries to Perez and Fermin gave Cropley another chance, and he started on Tuesday and went 1-for-3 with a sac fly. — Schoenfield
Record: 46-106
Previous ranking: 30
The A’s lost for the sixth straight time and for the 105th time this season on Tuesday night, but a stray dog also wandered into the visiting dugout and made friends with Mariners shortstop Crawford. That was sweet. It was a rose sprouting from concrete, a reminder that beauty can manifest itself anywhere, even within a sewage dump. One just has to actively seek it out. So, remember — there’s beauty somewhere in this miserable A’s season. If you figure out where it is, please let us know. We could all use some positivity. — Gonzalez
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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