
MLB Power Rankings: AL, NL wild-card teams locked in battle
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adminThe Braves are in. The Dodgers are in. The Rays and Orioles are in — and the Brewers and Twins aren’t far behind. Welcome to the stretch run!
With a week and a half left in the season, these teams have locked up their spots in the playoffs — but others still have a lot to play for.
Which of the three AL West teams vying for the division title will come out on top? And which of the five teams battling for a National League wild card — the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Marlins, Reds and Giants — will secure the remaining two slots?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 24 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 97-55
Previous ranking: 1
That ugly sweep to the Marlins after clinching the division title has put the best overall record in jeopardy for the Braves as the Orioles are now breathing down their necks — although, with seven of their final 10 games against the Nationals, the Braves should be able to hold on. With an 11-strikeout performance in a win over the Phillies on Tuesday, Spencer Strider is up to 270 strikeouts, just six short of John Smoltz’s franchise record set in his Cy Young season of 1996. Strider’s 37.9% strikeout percentage is the second highest ever for a starter in a full season, behind only Gerrit Cole’s 39.9% in 2019. — Schoenfield
Record: 95-57
Previous ranking: 2
Manager Brandon Hyde told reporters this week that Jack Flaherty is being shifted to a bullpen role. The switch isn’t necessarily permanent, but even if it’s only a one- or two-game experiment, it’s one worth conducting. With John Means back in the rotation and looking solid, Baltimore has five viable starters, one more than it’ll need in a postseason context. Flaherty has a 6.68 ERA since joining Baltimore at the trade deadline and just wasn’t getting deep enough into games. He has made just five relief appearances in his career, so there isn’t much to go on in terms of his track record in that role. His 1.017 OPS allowed this season in first innings isn’t a great sign, but perhaps his stuff will play up as a reliever. Flaherty’s maximum velocity this season (97.2 mph) ranks in the 78th percentile among qualifying big league hurlers. — Doolittle
Record: 93-58
Previous ranking: 3
The Dodgers won their 90th game and clinched the NL West on Saturday, with 15 games remaining in their regular season. Their focus has since shifted to the playoffs, where their short-handed starting rotation could present problems. But let’s not jump there without appreciating what the Dodgers just did. This, if you remember, was supposed to be a transition year. They took a conservative approach to the offseason in order to create a runway for some of their younger players, and yet they breezed to their 10th division title in 11 years. Their bullpen had the fifth-worst ERA in the majors by the end of June, their rotation has been decimated by injuries all year — in addition to Julio Urias being placed on administrative leave in the wake of domestic violence charges — and yet the Dodgers just keep rolling. It’s truly remarkable. — Gonzalez
Record: 93-60
Previous ranking: 4
The four-game split with Baltimore last week had to register as a letdown in St. Petersburg after Tampa Bay won the first two games of the series. The split leaves the Rays still needing to make up sizable ground in the division race, the winner of which is likely to be the American League’s top seed in the playoffs. Besides the small problem of the Orioles continuing to play championship-caliber baseball is the disparity in remaining schedules. Sandwiched around two games at Fenway Park is a pair of three-game series against a very good Blue Jays team fighting for its postseason life. Meanwhile, the O’s have a four-game set at Cleveland before finishing up with six home contests against last-place teams: Washington and Boston. — Doolittle
Record: 85-68
Previous ranking: 5
Just two weeks ago, Houston manhandled division rival Texas to the tune of 39-10 over three games. The Astros vaulted into the AL West lead during that throttling for the first time this season. With their main weapons back on the field, it very much looked like Houston was situated for a stout defense of its World Series crown. Instead, the Astros have since played sub-.500 baseball and find themselves not just in a no-room-for-error three-team race for the division title, but just one short losing streak away from dropping out of the playoffs altogether. Meanwhile, manager Dusty Baker opted to give Yordan Alvarez a break, saying he didn’t like the way the star slugger looked at the plate or moving on the field. However it shakes out, the Astros’ stretch run looks more interesting than we would have anticipated. — Doolittle
Record: 86-66
Previous ranking: 6
The Brewers are close to securing another division title and playoff spot under manager Craig Counsell as they seem to be peaking at the right time, especially on the mound. Their pitching ranked near the top of the majors in ERA last week — they’ve given up five or more runs just once in their past 12 games. Brandon Woodruff has continued his solid return from injury, compiling a 1.06 ERA over his past five starts that included a complete game shutout followed up by a six-inning stint where he gave up just one run against the Nationals. If Rowdy Tellez and/or Carlos Santana (as a lefty) can get hot next month, Milwaukee could be a dangerous playoff team. — Rogers
Record: 83-69
Previous ranking: 8
The Phillies haven’t won three games in a row since late August as they struggle to officially secure that top wild-card spot. Michael Lorenzen has pitched himself out of the rotation and into the bullpen, so once the Phillies do lock up a playoff spot, it will be fascinating to see who manager Rob Thomson lines up as the next two starters behind Zack Wheeler in a wild-card series. Ranger Suarez has been the best of the rest of late with a 2.86 ERA over his past six starts, although the walk rate has been a little high (16 in 34 2/3 innings). Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber is up to 45 home runs, following up last year’s 46-homer season. He’s the first player with consecutive 45-homer seasons since Ryan Howard did it with the Phillies in four consecutive seasons from 2006 to 2009. — Schoenfield
Record: 85-67
Previous ranking: 7
With Toronto one of four teams — along with Texas, Houston and Seattle — fighting for three AL playoff berths, it’s easy to fixate on the Jays’ remaining slate, which isn’t an easy one. Toronto’s stretch run consists entirely of AL East rivals: the Yankees and Rays. Both opponents have plenty to play for, with the Rays angling for a division crown and the Yankees trying to extend their epic streak of non-losing seasons. Perhaps more important than the schedule for Toronto is simply trying to figure out what this Jays team is about. Just this month, it has had three winning streaks of at least three games, but the Jays were also swept at home in a crucial four-game series against Texas. So more pertinent than the opponents down the stretch is the question: Which Jays team is going to show up for the most important games of the season? — Doolittle
Record: 84-68
Previous ranking: 10
A streaky second half continued for the Rangers last week as they swept the Blue Jays in a crucial four-game series in Toronto only to lose the next four, including a sweep at the hands of the below-.500 Guardians. Texas’ offense dried up in that series, scoring just six runs over the three games. Mitch Garver had the roughest week — going just 3-for-24 — while Corey Seager wasn’t much better, hitting just .217 over a seven-day span ending on Tuesday. The good news for Texas came in the return of Adolis Garcia from injury. He was out less than two weeks and now is ready for the stretch run — and this up-and-down offense needs him. Now, if their bullpen can lock in, the Rangers might have a chance. Otherwise, it’ll be a long offseason. — Rogers
Record: 84-68
Previous ranking: 9
Let’s give a big shoutout to J.P. Crawford, who has had an outstanding offensive season. Thanks to a .378 OBP and 50 extra-base hits, Crawford ranks seventh in the AL in offensive WAR. (Offensive WAR includes a positional adjustment, so it doesn’t mean Crawford has been the fifth-best hitter; he’s not in the top 10 in runs created, although he does rank right outside the top 10 in OPS+). Crawford has added more power, pulling the ball with authority much more often, but he works the strike zone better than any Mariners hitter in a long time with 88 walks and a low chase rate. — Schoenfield
Record: 81-72
Previous ranking: 12
As the Twins turn their attention to ending their record 18-game postseason losing streak, it’s a mystery what their postseason lineup might look like. Byron Buxton’s injuries are an old story, but it’s still possible he could be patrolling center field in October. Carlos Correa, meanwhile, hit the IL because of a worsening case of plantar fasciitis. He, too, might be back in time for the playoffs. Finally, breakout third baseman Royce Lewis turned up with a hamstring problem and is headed for an MRI to determine the extent of the issue. All of these players are now suspended in postseason limbo. Needless to say, Minnesota’s chances of finally getting a playoff win look a whole lot better with this trio than without it. — Doolittle
Record: 81-72
Previous ranking: 13
The way the D-backs navigated through last week served as a perfect encapsulation of how wacky and unpredictable the wild-card races have been this year. They lost three straight to the lowly Mets, with the Cubs on tap, set to match up the top of their rotation against the back end of Arizona’s. It seemed as if the D-backs were destined to fade down the stretch. Instead, they swept the Cubs over the weekend, vaulting into the second wild-card spot.
“We’re trying to win out,” D-backs first baseman Christian Walker said after Sunday’s game. “We want to give ourselves a no-doubt chance, and we understand how hard it is and how quickly things change.” Do they ever. — Gonzalez
Record: 79-73
Previous ranking: 11
A 1-5 road trip crushed the Cubs’ chances of winning the division or hosting a wild-card series, but they’re still in decent position to make the postseason. Cody Bellinger’s slump has coincided with the team’s issues scoring runs. He has slugged just .308 over a recent 10-game span in which the Cubs went 2-8. A weekend series sweep by fellow NL wild-card contender Arizona really hurt, too, as the Cubs lost all three games while pitching their top two starters and the Diamondbacks were missing both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Marcus Stroman has returned from a rib cartilage injury and will pitch out of the bullpen. With Michael Fulmer and closer Adbert Alzolay on the IL, Stroman could get some meaningful innings down the stretch. — Rogers
Record: 79-74
Previous ranking: 16
A weekend demolition of the Braves kept the Marlins in the thick of the wild-card race. They scored 36 runs in the three-game sweep as Jazz Chisholm became the first Marlins player with grand slams in consecutive games and Luis Arraez ripped out eight hits, including three home runs. With an off-day on Thursday and another one on Monday, the Marlins will also be able to bypass a couple of starts from the bottom of the rotation, and a concluding six-game road trip against the Mets and Pirates isn’t the toughest of final weeks. Miami has a good shot at its first full-season playoff berth since 2003. — Schoenfield
Record: 79-75
Previous ranking: 14
The Reds are hanging around the playoff race and could make a push in the final week, considering their final eight games come against teams below .500. However, they haven’t had a late-season defining stretch just yet. After getting swept by the Cardinals recently, they won their next two series and took Game 1 against the Twins on Monday before losing on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s been that kind of back-and-forth for them for quite some time. The team’s waiver claims haven’t exactly panned out, either, as Harrison Bader is on the IL and Hunter Renfroe was DFA’d this week. Bader hit .161 over 14 games for the Reds, who will have to rely on their young players to reach the postseason. The return of Matt McLain from an oblique injury will help. — Rogers
Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 18
Spoilers is not a role that you’d traditionally associate with the Yankees, but that’s where they’re at. New York’s homestretch includes a number of games against teams engaged in close battles to get into the postseason — Arizona and AL East rival Toronto. When you tack on the Yankees’ quest to avoid their first losing record since 1992, New York’s remaining schedule will have a little drama around it. The quest for .500 is likely to come down to the final weekend when the Bombers finish their season with a three-game series against the triple-digit-losing Royals. It’s not likely to conjure old memories of George Brett against Goose Gossage but, hey, you never know. — Doolittle
Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 15
The Giants lost for the 11th time this month on Tuesday night, but the biggest blow occurred in the third inning, when Alex Cobb exited with discomfort in his hip. The next day, he was placed on the IL, essentially ending his season. The regular season, at least. Cobb has put up a 3.87 ERA in 151 1/3 innings this year, joining Logan Webb as the only reliable, consistent starters in the Giants’ staff. On the night he went down, the Giants dropped to three games out of the final wild-card spot with three teams in front of them. Their path just got a lot more difficult. — Gonzalez
Record: 75-78
Previous ranking: 17
With Triston Casas joining Jarren Duran on the IL, and Boston searching for its next roster architect, it’s hard to look at the current Red Sox group with an eye toward the future. One player who will be there going forward is Masataka Yoshida, who’s wrapping up his first MLB campaign. He has mostly been as advertised, which is a tepid observation. He has hit for a decent average but displayed limited patience and only occasional power. It’s an overall above-average hitting profile. The problem is that Yoshida can’t run and that limits his value in the field and on the bases. The bottom line: He’s at just 1.0 bWAR as the season winds down. — Doolittle
Record: 75-78
Previous ranking: 19
With a 10-1 rout over the lowly A’s on Sunday, the Padres became the last team in the majors to win a fourth consecutive game. They proceeded to win their next three, running their winning streak to seven games and counting, which begs the question: Where was this earlier? Recent surge aside, the Padres find themselves 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with four teams to jump and only nine games remaining in their season. They could make this really, really interesting if they win out, but in all likelihood this will end up as one final tease before the conclusion of a thoroughly disappointing season. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove have been shut down, Manny Machado has been relegated to DH duties because of a balky elbow, and the Padres, helped by a soft schedule at the end, are probably too late. — Gonzalez
Record: 72-81
Previous ranking: 20
Cleveland outfielders have combined for 18 home runs — more than 20 fewer than any other team — after hitting 28 last season (which wasn’t the lowest in the majors; Tigers outfielders hit 23). The last outfield with fewer than 20 home runs: the 1992 White Sox, featuring Tim Raines and Lance Johnson, who hit 19. The 1989 Astros hit 18, and the last team with fewer than 18 was the 1976 White Sox with 17. This blurb has been brought to you by Cleveland Public Power. — Schoenfield
Record: 71-81
Previous ranking: 22
One Tiger who wishes the season wasn’t going to end for Detroit in a couple of weeks is second-year slugger Spencer Torkelson — the former top overall pick is building the most sustained momentum of his young career. Since the All-Star break, Torkelson has hit .237/.319/.509 with 17 homers in 62 games. The pace has picked up even more in September, during which he’s at .265/.320/.544. Since the trade deadline, Torkelson’s OPS ranks in the top 30 of the majors. Going forward, one split you’d like to see ironed out in Torkelson’s profile is his awkward home/road disparity. So far as a big leaguer, Torkelson has a .790 road OPS but just .604 at Comerica Park where, you know, he plays half his games. — Doolittle
Record: 71-81
Previous ranking: 23
For all New York’s disappointing results this season, Kodai Senga has been one of the few Mets who has matched expectations — if not exceeded them. With a 2.95 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 155 1/3 innings, he’ll get some down-ballot Cy Young votes. Coming over from Japan, where pitchers normally start once per week, he was handled carefully by the Mets, as he has made just three starts on four days of rest. The ghost forkball has been as advertised and rates as one of the best wipeout pitches in MLB, as batters have hit .112 against it with no home runs and 104 strikeouts in 177 PAs that end with that pitch (through Tuesday). — Schoenfield
Record: 69-83
Previous ranking: 21
On Friday afternoon, Anthony Rendon revealed he has been dealing with a tibia fracture, a diagnosis — from a fifth doctor of his own choosing — that ran in contrast with the Angels’ description of a deep bone bruise over these past two months. Later that night, media returned to the clubhouse to find that Shohei Ohtani’s locker had been cleared out, the product, we learned the following day, of him shutting it down as a hitter and shifting his focus to elbow surgery. Mike Trout, meanwhile, is running out of time in his hopes of returning from the hamate fracture he suffered in early July.
The Angels are a mess of epic proportions, as illustrated by the state of their best players. Ohtani is heading toward free agency, Trout has struggled mightily to stay healthy these past three years, and Rendon’s contract, with $114 million remaining over the next three years, feels untenable. The Angels, meanwhile, have secured their eighth consecutive losing season, the longest streak in franchise history. — Gonzalez
Record: 71-81
Previous ranking: 24
The Pirates have not mailed it in down the stretch. After beating the Nationals three straight times last week, they played the Yankees tough in a series loss, getting outscored only 15-10 over the three games. They’ve pitched well over that timeframe, compiling an ERA just under 4.00 for the week ending on Tuesday. Once again, it was righty Mitch Keller leading the way. He tossed eight shutout innings in a 2-0 win against the Nats. It came after a blowup against the vaunted Braves offense. Take that game away and, much like the whole year, Keller has been fantastic in the final weeks of the season. He’s the unquestioned ace of the team moving forward. — Rogers
Record: 67-85
Previous ranking: 25
Adam Wainwright’s 200th win was a thing of beauty. He made it through seven innings on Monday while giving up four hits and two walks in a tight affair with the Brewers. Nursing a 1-0 lead most of the way, his curveball showed its old life, especially in the later innings when it looked like the veteran would not be denied. In the process, he surpassed 100 innings on the season over 21 starts. The 41-year-old is retiring after compiling a 7.40 ERA in 2023, but he’ll have his last outing in St. Louis as a lasting memory: a 1-0 win to secure No. 200. — Rogers
Record: 68-85
Previous ranking: 26
Jackson Rutledge, the 6-foot-8 right-hander who was the team’s first-round pick in 2019, had an up-and-down career in the minors with injuries and inconsistent results. After posting a 3.71 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A, the Nationals are giving him a look down the stretch. His MLB debut was rough as he allowed 10 hits and seven runs in 3 2/3 innings, but he bounced back against the White Sox, allowing two runs (both home runs) in 6 1/3 innings. His fastball has averaged 95 mph, but he’ll need to improve the changeup to give him another off-speed weapon. Batters are 8-for-16 against it with two home runs. He’s probably more of a deep rotation option for next season. — Schoenfield
Record: 58-95
Previous ranking: 27
Surprisingly, Mike Clevinger has been the team’s second most valuable — and consistent — player after Luis Robert Jr. His latest start was his best as he pitched a complete game against the Nationals on Monday, coming within one out of a shutout. It was the White Sox’s first complete game of the season and Clevinger’s third of his career. His 3.42 ERA over 22 starts would rank seventh in the AL if not for an early-season injury that prevents him from qualifying. He and the team have a mutual option for next season, but Clevinger isn’t likely to exercise his end of it. In a miserable season in Chicago, he has been very good. — Rogers
Record: 56-96
Previous ranking: 28
The Rockies are barreling toward their first 100-loss season in franchise history, but there has been one very clear bright spot lately — Nolan Jones, the rookie outfielder acquired in a swap of young position players with the Guardians last November, has slashed .286/.374/.524 in 96 games since his call-up in late May, hitting 17 home runs and stealing 17 bases. He’s the first rookie in franchise history to accumulate at least 15 homers and 15 steals in the same season, and he has a shot at 20/20 despite spending most of the first two months in the minor leagues. Two Mondays ago, he also recorded the fastest outfield assist of 2023. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-102
Previous ranking: 29
With Salvador Perez suffering a concussion and Freddy Fermin fracturing his finger, the Royals have two of the unlikeliest major leaguers of 2023 in catchers Logan Porter and Tyler Cropley. Porter, a former clubhouse attendant for the Royals’ rookie league team in Arizona, was signed out of Utah Tech in 2018 — with the idea that he would be a bullpen catcher. The Royals told him he might never get in a game — but he did. He hit .301 in the minors in 2022 and .232 this year in Triple-A before getting called up and hitting his first home run on Sept. 16. Cropley, meanwhile, began 2023 in Double-A … as the bullpen catcher. He was called up Sept. 9, but he didn’t get in a game and was designated for assignment two days later. Those injuries to Perez and Fermin gave Cropley another chance, and he started on Tuesday and went 1-for-3 with a sac fly. — Schoenfield
Record: 46-106
Previous ranking: 30
The A’s lost for the sixth straight time and for the 105th time this season on Tuesday night, but a stray dog also wandered into the visiting dugout and made friends with Mariners shortstop Crawford. That was sweet. It was a rose sprouting from concrete, a reminder that beauty can manifest itself anywhere, even within a sewage dump. One just has to actively seek it out. So, remember — there’s beauty somewhere in this miserable A’s season. If you figure out where it is, please let us know. We could all use some positivity. — Gonzalez
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The All-Stars who are halfway to history in 2025
Published
5 hours agoon
July 15, 2025By
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This year, the MLB All-Star Game isn’t just a collection of the game’s biggest stars, but a glimpse at baseball history in the making.
The 2025 Midsummer Classic marks the unofficial midway point of some of the greatest seasons the sport has ever seen.
Will Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh — aka the Big Dumper — set a new standard for slugging catchers? Will Shohei Ohtani score more runs in a season than any living person has ever seen? Will Aaron Judge … top Aaron Judge?
As Major League Baseball’s best convene in Atlanta, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break down 11 players who are halfway to history. For each player, ESPN MLB reporters Jorge Castillo and Jesse Rogers asked one of their fellow All-Stars to weigh in on their accomplishments, as they get set to take the field together at Truist Park.
Cal Raleigh: Greatest season for a catcher — ever
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Well, we can add Home Run Derby champion to the list after Raleigh’s impressive showing Monday night. With 38 home runs through 96 team games, Raleigh is on pace for 64, which would break Judge’s American League record of 62 set in 2022. That’s the big one. There are a whole bunch of other records in play: most home runs by a switch hitter (Mickey Mantle, 54); most home runs by a primary catcher (Salvador Perez, 48); most multihomer games in a season (Raleigh has eight, the record is 11); and even highest catcher WAR in a season (Mike Piazza with 8.7 bWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 8.4; Buster Posey with 9.8 fWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 10.4). In other words, he could have the greatest season ever for a catcher.
How he’s doing it: Raleigh has always been better against right-handed pitching, but he has been absolutely crushing lefties in 2025, hitting .337/.385/.861 with 16 home runs in only 101 at-bats. Overall, he also has been much better against velocity. From 2022 to 2024, he slugged .418 against pitches 93 mph or faster; this year, he’s slugging .664. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “It’s wild. I mean, he’s having a crazy year and it’s awesome that he’s doing it from behind the plate. And what he’s doing is unbelievable. It’s hard to describe. It’s amazing to see.” — Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman
Aaron Judge: Most total bases since the Great Depression
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Judge closed out the first half with a quiet day against the Chicago Cubs but is still on pace to record 435 total bases this season. You could pick any one of a dozen categories in which Judge is on a historic pace, but this simple old-school measure will do just fine. The record is held by Babe Ruth (457 in 1921), so Judge would have to somehow pick up the pace to surpass that. But 435 would still be epic. The last player to reach that number was Jimmie Foxx in 1932.
How he’s doing it: Judge has become more aggressive at the plate without sacrificing contact or power. But it’s not only ball-in-play volume: He’s hitting an incredible .425 when getting the bat on the ball, which fuels his MLB-leading .355 batting average. That BABIP would be the third-highest ever if Judge maintained it, which obviously affects the total bases column. So too does Judge’s intentional walks pace (41). He’d be only the fourth player to top 40. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He started off hot this year, which normally in years past, he doesn’t start off hot like he did this year. And now you see it. He always finishes strong. I mean, I don’t know what he ends up with. Hopefully he hits like 70 homers. That’d be sick.” — New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon
Shohei Ohtani: One run scored for every game
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Although his pace has slowed a bit the past couple of weeks, Ohtani has scored 89 runs in 94 games, giving him a chance at a run scored per game. Ohtani had been on pace for 160 runs, which only Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have done since 1900. He’s still on pace for 150 runs, which only Ted Williams and Jeff Bagwell have done since World War II. The last player with more runs scored than games played, with at least 100 games played: Rickey Henderson in 1985 (146 runs in 143 games). If that’s not enough to impress you, there is the chance for a second straight 50-homer season and a fourth career MVP award. If the latter happens, he’ll join Barry Bonds as the only player with more than three MVP awards.
How he’s doing it: It helps to be a leadoff man with power, as Ohtani leads the National League in both plate appearances and home runs. The first three months, Ohtani also had a great trio hitting behind him in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, but his runs scored pace has dropped off in July as he has hit just .175, and Betts and Freeman have also slumped. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “As his teammate and fellow competitor, to see what he does on both sides of the field, it’s incredible. How much power he has as a hitter. He’s got 30-plus homers already at the break. He’s hitting .300 or whatever. And, yeah, he’s going out there on the mound and throwing 102, striking out the side. And these are his rehab games. He’s not even all the way back yet, full-go yet. It’s incredible to watch. Fortunately, I get to see all the work he puts in every day, which is really cool. It’s really special what he’s doing.” — Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith
Paul Skenes: Two sub-2.00 ERA seasons before turning 25
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skenes’ ERA at the break is an NL-best 2.01. His career mark is 1.98 over 43 starts. There is all kinds of history around this level of stifling run prevention. As it stands, Skenes joins Ed Walsh, Addie Joss and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown with at least 40 starts and a sub-2.00 career ERA in the AL or NL. If Skenes drops his 2025 number below 2.00, he’d be the 31st pitcher to have two or more sub-2.00 ERA seasons of at least 20 starts. Only two of those pitchers did it by age 23: Walter Johnson and Ed Reulbach, both more than 100 years ago.
How he’s doing it: Skenes’ strikeout rate (9.7 per nine innings) is down 1.8 from last year. Yet his FIP (an NL-best 2.41) is actually better because of his league-best homer rate (0.4 per nine innings). Simply put, Skenes is learning how to manage the pure dominance of his arsenal, revving it up when needed. Skenes is not exactly pitching to contact — his stuff is just too good to not miss a lot of bats — but his pitch efficiency is better, and that’s getting him deeper into games. His style has evolved, but one big thing has remained steady: Nobody can score off him. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Obviously, the first thing that stands out is his stuff, right? And the second thing you look at is the composure. He’s kind of new to the league and just from watching some of his preparation, his composure on the mound, I feel like that’s what makes him successful. He started to add a couple of new pitches to his arsenal and it’s going to make him tougher. He’s got the military background, so I think that’s where he gets a lot of his discipline and everything from. He’s challenging, but it is fun to compete against him.” — St. Louis Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan
Tarik Skubal: Top five strikeout-to-walk season of all time
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skubal has struck out 9.56 batters for every one he has walked. Only four qualifying pitchers have ever done better: Phil Hughes (11.63, 2014), Bret Saberhagen (11.00, 1994), Cliff Lee (10.28, 2010) and Curt Schilling (9.58, 2002). The leaderboard is dominated by wild-card era pitchers, with its heightened whiff rates. But according to FanGraphs’ plus-statistics, which compare numbers to league averages, Skubal’s index of 368 ranks 18th all time. His mastery works in any era.
How he’s doing it: Skubal has already had two games this season in which he has struck out 13 batters on fewer than 100 pitches. Simply put, his command keeps him in the zone more than any qualifying pitcher (49.7%, per FanGraphs). But it also allows him to pitch outside of it on his terms. To wit: Skubal also leads the majors in inducing swings on pitches out of the zone (37.2%). It’s a lethal combination. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Even on game days, he’s working before the game like he’s not pitching that day. Even on the off days, he’s at the field doing something. He does a whole routine. I faced him in spring training and was looking for one pitch — when that pitch came, I didn’t hit it. He knows what hitters are looking for.” — Detroit Tigers outfielder Javier Baez
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Before the 2023 season, there had been only four 40-homer/40-steal seasons in big league history, and the 40/50 club was memberless. Now Crow-Armstrong is on a 42-homer, 46-steal pace at the break. He could join Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 homers, 73 steals in 2023) and Shohei Ohtani (54 homers, 59 steals last season) in one or both clubs, giving us a three-year run of expanding membership. This one would be the most stunning of all. PCA entered the season with 10 homers, 29 steals and an 83 OPS+ in his career. His rise has been flat-out stunning.
How he’s doing it: The steals part of Crow-Armstrong’s game was already there, though he’s picked up the pace in 2025, already matching his 27 steals from last season. Any time he reaches safely, he’s a threat to take an extra base. That is unless he’s trotting around the bags after mashing yet another homer. Crow-Armstrong is hitting the ball harder more often, getting more balls in the air and pulling it more frequently. All of this could explain an isolated power uptick, but nothing really can explain the degree to which PCA has lifted off. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a much better defender than me. He has a much better arm. He’s a really complete player. I don’t think I would have guessed he would have the power numbers he’s showing this year, but I guess people would have said that about me too. His ability to pull the ball in the air has been the difference for him, I think. He hits the ball so hard, all over the stadium.” — Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll
Junior Caminero: 40 home runs in age-21 season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: In his first full season in the majors, Caminero enters the All-Star break with 23 home runs in the 97 games the Tampa Bay Rays have played, giving him a season pace of 38. Though he turned 22 earlier this month, Caminero is in his age-21 season, so he can join Eddie Mathews (47 in 1953) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 in 2019) as the only players to reach 40 home runs at that age.
How he’s doing it: Caminero has the second-quickest bat in the majors via Statcast’s bat tracking measurements and he uses that bat speed to punish fastballs. He’s slugging .692 against four-seam fastballs — and .793 against four-seam fastballs 95-plus mph. He has received some help from the Rays’ temporary home stadium, George Steinbrenner Field, hitting .316 with 14 home runs at home. That’s worth noting as the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule through the end of August. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a special talent. I mean, his bat speed’s insane. I saw him in spring training [with the Rays], basically, but, yeah, he’s a special talent. Hard-working kid. I’m excited to watch him. They’re mature at-bats. He came up, I was hurt during the playoffs in ’23, and I thought he had some of the most mature, calm at-bats I’d seen for a young kid. Especially to come up in the playoffs, he didn’t let the situation get too big. I think he’s going to be here for a long time, a lot of years.” — San Diego Padres (and former Tampa Bay Rays) reliever Jason Adam
Corbin Carroll: 40 home runs, 20 triples, 20 stolen bases
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: The third-year speedster is back in the All-Star Game after failing to be selected last year, and showing again why he’s one of the most exciting players in the majors. He has an outside shot at becoming the first player with 40 home runs, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season. Yes, that’s a bit of statistical free-for-all, but it displays Carroll’s power, speed and hustle. Those odds were hurt when he sat out a couple of weeks because of a chip fracture in his left wrist, but in his first 79 games, he had 21 home runs, 10 triples and 11 stolen bases. Even if those numbers are out of reach, he could be the third member of the 35/15/20 club, joining Chuck Klein and Willie Mays.
How he’s doing it: We mentioned hustle, because the triples are the key category here, and Carroll is the best triples hitter in the majors in a long time, hitting 10 as a rookie in 2023 and 14 in 2024, leading the NL both seasons. He also has tweaked his swing and is hitting the ball harder this season and hitting it more often in the air, so he should soar past his previous career high of 25 home runs. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “There is no hole, really. It’s hard to find new ways to get him out. He’s one of the best in baseball. He’s so quick and twitchy. I don’t get many fastballs by him.” — San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Witt’s doubles pace has ebbed a little, perhaps in part because some of the balls that were swelling his two-bagger column earlier have been leaving the yard of late. Still, Witt is on pace for 53 doubles, which would be the most by an American Leaguer in six years. That number would also challenge Hal McRae’s franchise record of 54 doubles set in 1977. Witt’s overall numbers aren’t quite as spectacular as last season, but he remains a top-five MVP candidate in the AL. Witt hasn’t gone on a true heater yet this season, but MLB pitchers beware: He has come out of the All-Star break in each of the past two seasons and gone on an extended tear.
How he’s doing it: Everything about Witt’s game — durability, aggressiveness, contact, swing plain, speed, home venue — suggests a player who is annually going to rank near the top of the charts in doubles, among many other categories. If only he didn’t hit so many triples and homers. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “I can’t get him out. It’s just a tough at-bat. And [he] plays the game really, really hard. Some of the stars look cool and play it a little bit slower. Bobby is always playing the game really hard. A single is a victory against him, but he’s going to turn it into a double most of the time.” — Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize
Kyle Tucker: 30 home runs, 40 stolen bases, 120 runs scored
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: With 17 home runs, 22 stolen bases and 68 runs scored, Tucker is showing Cubs fans the all-around brilliance that earned him a fourth consecutive All-Star selection. That puts him on pace to join the exclusive club of 30 homers, 40 stolen bases and 120 runs — which has only 11 members (with Bobby Bonds having done it twice). At a minimum, Tucker would love to join the 30/30 club, which he just missed in 2023 with 29 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
How he’s doing it: Tucker’s career high in runs scored is 97, so joining the explosive Cubs offense has helped in that department. So has moving up in the lineup: He has mostly hit second for the Cubs after often hitting fifth for the Houston Astros (at least until last season). He has been a little more aggressive stealing bases to give him a shot at 40, and does it with great success, getting caught only once so far. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He stays in there against lefties, knows how to use the whole field. And knows what a strike is. He stays in the zone a long time. I got lucky this year. It was the one game he missed. He’s one of the tougher left-handed outs.” — Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore
Byron Buxton: The perfect stolen-base season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Buxton just hit for the cycle and — knock on wood — he has been healthy so far, so he’s on track for a career high in many categories, including his first 30-homer season. But the fun number: He’s 17-for-17 in stolen-base attempts. Only six players have swiped at least 20 bases in a season without getting caught, with Trea Turner’s 30-for-30 with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 the single-season high.
How he’s doing it: Buxton has always been a terrific high percentage base stealer, including a 29-for-30 mark in 2017 and a 90% success rate in his career, but the surprising thing about his 2025 totals is perhaps that he’s even stealing bases at all, given all the injuries in his career. It would be easy for the Minnesota Twins to just shut him down on the basepaths — much like the Los Angeles Angels did years ago with Mike Trout — but the 31-year-old Buxton is running more than he has since he was 23. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s one of the best players in the game when he’s healthy and when he’s playing out there. I think the biggest thing I’ve noticed from him is that it seems like his internal clock is just at a pace this year. It’s not like it flashes where he’s going crazy and then he’s backing off. It’s consistent. It’s just that consistent heartbeat. It’s like he’s running a marathon at an insane pace. He’s going to run a sub-three-hour marathon or something. He’s cruising along and it’s just fun to watch him play.” — Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan
Sports
Is it the coach or the program? Ranking CFB coaches while factoring in expectations
Published
8 hours agoon
July 15, 2025By
admin
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Bill ConnellyJul 15, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
Sports
It’s MLB Home Run Derby Day! Predictions, live updates and takeaways
Published
20 hours agoon
July 15, 2025By
admin
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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