One party has held court over Welsh politics for more than a century.

Welsh Labour MPs have been the largest group sent to Westminster in every general election since 1922 – and the party has been in government in the country for more than a quarter of a century.

But if the polls are accurate, Labour’s long-standing grip on politics in Wales is fading.

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Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are running almost neck and neck, while Labour trails significantly. A recent YouGov poll put Plaid Cymru on 30%, Reform UK on 29% and Labour at 14%.

Plaid Cymru, heading into its conference this weekend, can sense the mood for change in Wales – and intends to show it is ready for government.

The party hopes to capitalise on disillusioned Labour voters feeling let down by their party under Sir Keir Starmer, and use this to tackle the rise of Reform – which is key to getting it into power.

In his leader’s speech, Rhun ap Iorwerth is expected to position Plaid Cymru as Wales’s progressive force, and the only party capable of taking on Reform.

He will say: “We’re not here to act as Labour’s conscience. We are not here to repair Labour. We are here to replace them.

“If you’ve never voted for Plaid Cymru before, the time is now.

“The time is now to stop Reform and elect a government more radical, more ambitious, more impatient to bring about positive change than any which has gone before it. A government of progress and of progressive values.”

One in five Labour voters in Wales intend to back Plaid Cymru at the Senedd elections in 2026, according to YouGov. But almost a quarter of Labour voters remain undecided on who to endorse.

The topic of independence will no doubt be a contentious issue for voters who are angry about decisions made by Labour in Wales and Westminster, but do not want an independent Wales.

Mr ap Iorwerth has ruled out an independence referendum if Plaid Cymru wins next year’s elections, signalling that he doesn’t want the campaign to centre on independence.

Throughout the conference, Plaid Cymru will position itself as ready to govern. But voters will expect clear plans for the NHS, education, and the economy. The question for the party, both during this conference and over the coming months, will be whether its proposals can win over Labour voters in its quest to beat Reform.

But Plaid Cymru’s challenge to Nigel Farage’s party faces a critical test sooner than May. Instead, its next battle will be in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election on 23 October.

Historically a Labour stronghold at both Senedd and Westminster levels, Caerphilly has consistently returned Labour representatives, with Plaid Cymru as the main opposition at Senedd elections.

However, this election introduces a new dynamic, as Reform has emerged as a credible challenger, poised to disrupt the traditional two-party contest.

Coming second at this election won’t be a total loss for Plaid Cymru.

If it can come second at the by-election, it will prove the point Mr ap Iorwerth will be making at the conference in Swansea: that his party is the only credible anti-Reform vote.

The full list of candidates standing at the Caerphilly by-election:

• Labour – Richard Tunnicliffe

• Plaid Cymru – Lindsay Whittle

• Reform UK – Llŷr Powell

• Conservative – Gareth Potter

• Green Party – Gareth Hughes

• Gwlad – Anthony Cook

• UKIP – Roger Quilliam

• Liberal Democrats – Steve Aicheler

One metric for the rise and fall of this government might end up being the progress of the rollout of digital ID.

The lack of a clear plan – despite the high profile announcement by the PM – means the destination still remains slightly opaque, and some cabinet ministers are sceptical.

However, the PM’s India trip suggests that there might just be a path to success, if things fall in Keir Starmer’s favour.

During his visit, Starmer met the boss of Infosys, Nandan Nilekani, who is behind the rollout of digital ID to more than 1.4 billion Indian citizens.

Afterwards, when I asked about it at the closing press conference of the India trip, he was infused by a fresh enthusiasm for the plan, not evident at the Labour gathering in Liverpool in the days after he first unveiled it.

Below is what he said to me, transcribed in full.

But as you read it, notice how the PM’s explanation and justification for this scheme – which will be one of the biggest projects this government undertakes if it does happen – centres around convenience for citizens and makes no mention of the case originally used for it – to combat illegal migration.

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Starmer told me: “We did discuss [digital ID] yesterday. And in particular, the benefits that it has brought in India.

“We’ve obviously also looked at other countries – Estonia, for example. The speed with which it allows citizens here to access services, particularly financial services, is something that was recognised in our discussions yesterday and actually at the fintech discussion that we had today, as well.

“So, we’re looking at those examples of how digital ID helps individuals, with the processes that sometimes take too long and are too cumbersome, and makes it easier for them.”

The answer is clear: the prime minister now puts personal convenience as the top justification.

While Starmer was locked in the Fintech summit, we visited Mumbai University to gauge opinion on digital ID, which has rolled out across India over the past 10 to 15 years.

We asked students as they could traditionally have been thought to be one of the more cautious groups in society towards a project which involves state intrusion into the lives of individuals.

Among all the people that we talked to – and you can watch our video at the top of this page – there was a recognition of privacy concerns, worries about data leaks, and uncertainty about how some of the information might be used.

But every single person we stopped and talked to about it was nevertheless enthusiastically in favour – and said it had made their lives simpler and more efficient.

The net benefits of this scheme had landed with the Indian citizens we spoke to.

The engagement from Infosys is also significant after the boss of Palantir, a rival tech company, gave the idea of a UK digital ID scheme a comprehensive shellacking last week.

For a moment, it looked like the corporate world might be pulling back from the scheme – so the engagement of a massive multinational corporation has come at just the right moment.

None of which is to downplay the obstacles.

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In a bizarre move, the Home Office appears to have been allowed to swerve responsibility for the project, which has gone instead to Liz Kendall’s Department of Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT), which does not yet have any track record of major delivery.

One DSIT aide said that the young average age of staff at the newly formed department is an advantage, a claim which seems somewhat doubtful.

So, Whitehall may tie itself up in knots over this project. Or, it might turn out that India’s cultural norms simply make it an easier place to roll out a scheme like this.

But on the basis of our enquiries, there is the potential case for a scheme that can be sold to a willing public.