Wall Street’s ‘meh’ response to tech IPOs shows Silicon Valley’s valuation problem
Instacart celebrates their IPO at the Nasdaq on Sept. 19th, 2023.
Courtesy: Nasdaq
After a 21-month tech IPO freeze, the market has cracked opened in the past week. But the early results can’t be encouraging to any late-stage startups lingering on the sidelines.
Chip designer Arm debuted last Thursday, followed by grocery delivery company Instacart this Tuesday, and cloud software vendor Klaviyo the following day. They’re three very different companies in disparate parts of the tech sector, but Wall Street’s reaction has been consistent.
Investors who bought at the IPO price made money if they sold right away. Just about everyone else is in the red. That’s fine if a company’s goal is just to be public and create the opportunity for employees and early investors to get liquidity. But for most companies in the pipeline, particularly those with sufficient capital on their balance sheet to stay private, it offers little allure.
“People are worried about valuations,” said Eric Juergens, a partner at law firm Debevoise & Plimpton who focuses on capital markets and private equity. “Seeing how those companies trade over the next couple months will be important to see how IPO markets and equity markets more generally are valuing those companies and how they may value comparable companies looking to go public.”
Juergens said, based on his conversations with companies, the market is likely to open up further in the first half of next year simply because of pressure from investors and employees as well as financing requirements.
“At some point companies need to go public, whether it’s a PE fund looking to exit or employees looking for liquidity or just the need to raise capital in a high interest rate environment,” he said.
Arm, which is controlled by Japan’s SoftBank, saw its shares jump 25% in their first day of trading to close at $63.59. Every day since then, the stock has fallen, and it closed on Thursday at $52.16, narrowly above the $51 IPO price.
Instacart popped 40% immediately after selling shares at $30. But by the end of its first day of trading, it was up just 12%, and that gain was practically all wiped out on day two. The stock rose 1.8% on Thursday to close at $30.65.
Klaviyo rose 23% based on its first trade on Wednesday, before selling off throughout the day to close at $32.76, just 9% higher than its IPO price. It rose 2.9% on Thursday to $33.72.
None of these companies were expecting, or even hoping for, a big pop. In 2020 and 2021, during the frothy zero interest rate days, first-day jumps were so dramatic that bankers were criticized for handing out free money to their buyside buddies, and companies were slammed for leaving too much cash on the table.
But the lack of excitement over the past week — amounting to a collective “meh” across Wall Street — is certainly not the desired outcome either.
Instacart CEO Fidji Simo acknowledged that her company’s IPO wasn’t about trying to optimize pricing for the company. Instacart only sold the equivalent of 5% of outstanding shares in the offering, with co-founders, early employees, former staffers and other existing investors selling another 3%.
“We felt that it was really important to give our employees liquidity,” Simo told CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa in an interview after the offering. “This IPO is not about raising money for us. It’s really about making sure that all employees can have liquidity on stocks that they work very hard for. We weren’t looking for a perfect market window.”
Odds are the window was never going to be perfect for Instacart. At the tech market peak in 2021, Instacart raised capital at a $39 billion valuation, or $125 a share, from top-tier investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz and T. Rowe Price.
During last year’s market plunge, Instacart had to slash its valuation multiple times and switch from growth to profit mode to make sure it could generate cash as interest rates were rising and investors were retreating from risk.
Growing into valuation
The combination of the Covid delivery boom, low interest rates and a decade-long bull market in tech drove Instacart and other internet, software and e-commerce businesses to unsustainable heights. Now it’s just a matter of when they take their medicine.
Klaviyo, which provides marketing automation technology to businesses, never got as overheated as many others in the industry, raising at a peak valuation of $9.5 billion in 2021. Its IPO valuation was just below that, and CEO Andrew Bialecki told CNBC that the company wasn’t under pressure to go public.
“We’ve got a lot of momentum as a business. Now is a great time for us to go public especially as we move up in the enterprise,” Bialecki said. “There really wasn’t any pressure at all.”
Klaviyo’s revenue increased 51% in the latest quarter from a year earlier to $165 million, and the company swung to profitability, generating almost $11 million in net income after losing $11.7 million in the same period the prior year.
Even though it avoided a major down round, Klaviyo had to increase its revenue by about 150% over two years and turn profitable to roughly keep its valuation.
“We think companies should be profitable,” Bialecki said. “That way you can be in control of your own destiny.”
While profitability is great for showing sustainability, it isn’t what tech investors cared about during the record IPO years of 2020 and 2021. Valuations were based on a multiple to future sales at the expense of potential earnings.
Cloud software and infrastructure businesses were in the midst of a landgrab at the time. Venture firms and large asset managers were subsidizing their growth, encouraging them to go big on sales reps and burn piles of cash to get their products in customers’ hands. On the consumer side, startups raised hundreds of millions of dollars to pour into advertising and, in the case of gig economy companies like Instacart, to entice contract workers to choose them over the competition.
Instacart was proactive in pulling down its valuation to reset investor and employee expectations. Klaviyo grew into its lofty price. Among high-valued companies that are still private, payments software developer Stripe has cut its valuation by almost half to $50 billion, and design software startup Canva lowered its valuation in a secondary transaction by 36% to $25.5 billion.
Private equity firms and venture capitalists are in the business of profiting on their investments, so eventually their portfolio companies need to hit the public market or get acquired. But for founders and management teams, being public means a potentially volatile stock price and a need to update investors every quarter.
Given how Wall Street has received the first notable tech IPOs since late 2021, there may not be a ton of reward for all that hassle.
Still, Aswarth Damodaran, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said that with all the skepticism in the market, the latest IPOs are performing OK because there was a fear they could drop 20% to 25% out of the gate.
“At one level the people pushing these companies are probably heaving a sigh of relief because there was a very real chance of catastrophe on these companies,” Damodaran told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. “I have a feeling it will take a week or two for this to play out. But if the stock price stays above the offer price two weeks from now, I think these companies will all view that as a win.”
WATCH: NYU professor explains why he doesn’t trust SoftBank-backed IPOs
Masayoshi Son, chairman and chief executive officer of SoftBank Group Corp., speaks at the SoftBank World event in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, July 16, 2025.
Kiyoshi Ota | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Masayoshi Son is making his biggest bet yet: that his brainchild SoftBank will be the center of a revolution driven by artificial intelligence.
Son says artificial superintelligence (ASI) — AI that is 10,000 times smarter than humans — will be here in 10 years. It’s a bold call — but perhaps not surprising. He’s made a career out of big plays; notably, one was a $20 million investment into Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba in 2000 that has made billions for SoftBank.
Now, the billionaire is hoping to replicate that success with a series of investments and acquisitions in AI firms that will put SoftBank at the center of a fundamental technological shift.
While Son has been outspoken about his vision over the last year, his thinking precedes much of his recent bullishness, according to two former executives at SoftBank.
“I vividly remember the first time he invited me to his home for dinner and sitting on his porch over a glass of wine, he started talking to me about singularity – the point at which machine intelligence overtakes human intelligence,” Alok Sama, a former finance chief at SoftBank until 2016 and and president until 2019, told CNBC.
SoftBank’s big AI plays
For Son, AI seems personal.
“SoftBank was founded for what purpose? For what purpose was Masa Son born? It may sound strange, but I think I was born to realize ASI,” Son said last year.
That may go some way to explain what has been an aggressive drive over the past few years — but especially the last two — to put SoftBank at the center of the AI story.
In 2016, SoftBank acquired chip designer Arm in a deal worth about $32 billion at the time. Today, Arm is valued at more than $145 billion. While Arm blueprints form the basis of the designs for nearly all the world’s smartphones, these days, the company is looking to position itself as a key player in AI infrastructure. Arm-based chips are part of Nvidia’s systems that go into data centers.
In March, SoftBank also announced plans to acquire another chip designer, Ampere Computing, for $6.5 billion.
ChatGPT maker OpenAI is another marquee investment for SoftBank, with the Japanese giant saying recently that planned investments in the company will reach about 4.8 trillion Japanese yen ($32.7 billion).
SoftBank has also invested in a number of other companies related to AI across its portfolio.
“SoftBank’s AI strategy is comprehensive, spanning the entire AI stack from foundational semiconductors, software, infrastructure, and robotics to cutting-edge cloud services and end applications across critical verticals such as enterprise, education, health, and autonomous systems,” Neil Shah, co-founder at Counterpoint Research, told CNBC.
“Mr. Son’s vision is to cohesively connect and deeply integrate these components, thereby establishing a powerful AI ecosystem designed to maximize long-term value for our shareholders.”
SoftBank’s stock performance since 2017, the year that its first Vision Fund was founded.
There is a common theme behind SoftBank’s investments in AI companies that comes directly from Son — namely, that these firms should be using advanced intelligence to be more competitive, successful, to make their product better and their customers happy, a person familiar with the company told CNBC. They could only comment anonymously because of the sensitivity of the matter.
It started with and brain computers and robots
As SoftBank launched “SoftBank’s Next 30-Year Vision” in 2010, Son spoke about “brain computers” during a presentation. He described these computers as systems that could learn and program themselves eventually.
And then came robots. Major tech figures like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Tesla boss Elon Musk are now talking about robotics as a key application of AI — but Son was thinking about this more than a decade ago.
In 2012, SoftBank took a majority stake in a French company called Aldebaran. Two years later, the two companies launched a humanoid robot called Pepper, which they billed as “the world’s first personal robot that can read emotions.”
Later, Son said: “In 30 years, I hope robots will become one of the core businesses in generating profits for the SoftBank group.”
SoftBank’s bet on Pepper ultimately flopped for the company. SoftBank slashed jobs at its robotics unit and stopped producing Pepper in 2020. In 2022, German firm United Robotics Group agreed to acquire Aldebaran from SoftBank.
But Son’s very early interest in robots underscored his curiosity for AI applications of the future.
“He was in very early and he has been thinking about this obsessively for a long time,” Sama, who is author of “The Money Trap,” said.
In the background, Son was cooking up something bigger: a tech fund that would make waves in the investing world. He founded the Vision Fund in 2017 with a massive $100 billion in deployable capital.
SoftBank aggressively invested in companies across the world with some of the biggest bets on ride hailing players like Uber and Chinese firm Didi.
But investments in Chinese technology companies and some bad bets on firms like WeWork soured sentiment for the Vision Fund as it racked up billions of dollars of losses by 2023.
Vision but bad timing
The market questioned some of Son’s investments in companies like Uber and Didi, which were burning through cash at the time and had unclear unit economics.
But even those investments spoke to Son’s AI view, according to the former partner at the SoftBank Vision Fund.
“His thought back then was the first advent of AI would be self-driving cars,” the source told CNBC.
Again this could be seen as a case of being too early. Uber created a driverless car unit only to sell it off. Instead, the company has focused on other self-driving car companies to bring them onto the Uber platform. Even now, driverless cars are not widespread on roads, though commercial services like those of Waymo are available.
SoftBank still has investments in driverless car companies, such as British startup Wayve.
Timing clearly wasn’t on Son’s side. After record losses at the Vision Fund in 2022, Son declared SoftBank would go into “defense” mode, significantly reducing investments and being more prudent. It was at this time that companies like OpenAI were beginning to gain steam, but still before the launch of ChatGPT that would put the company on the map.
“When those companies came to head in 2021, 2022, Masa would have been in a perfect place but he had used all his ammunition on other companies,” the former Vision Fund exec said.
“When they came to age in 21, 22, the Vision Fund had invested in five or six hundred different companies and he was not in a position to invest in AI and he missed that.”
Son himself said this year that SoftBank wanted to invest in OpenAI as early as 2019, but it was Microsoft that ended up becoming the key investor. Fast forward to 2025, the Vision Fund — of which there are now two — has a portfolio stacked full of AI focused companies.
But that period was tough for investors across the board. The Covid-19 pandemic, booming inflation and rising rates hit public and private markets across the board after years of loose monetary policy and a tech bull run.
SoftBank didn’t see that time as a missed opportunity to invest in AI, a person familiar with the company said.
Instead, the the company is of the view that it is still very early in the AI investing cycle, the source added.
Risk and reward
AI technology is fast-moving, from the chips that run the software to the models that underpin popular applications.
Tech giants in the U.S. and China are battling it out to produce ever-advancing AI models with the aim of reaching artificial general intelligence (AGI) — a term with different definitions depending on who you speak to, but one that broadly refers to AI that is smarter than humans. With billions of dollars of investment going into the technology, the risk is high, and the rewards could be even higher.
But disruption can come out of no where.
This year, Chinese firm DeepSeek made waves after releasing a so-called reasoning model that appeared to be developed more cheaply than its U.S. rivals. The fact that a Chinese company managed the feat, despite all the export restrictions for advanced tech in place, rocked global financial markets that were betting the U.S. had an unassailable AI lead.
While markets have since recovered, the potential of surprise advances in technology at such an early stage in AI remains a big risk for the likes of SoftBank.
“As with most technology investments the key challenge is to invest in the winning technologies. Many of the investments SoftBank has made are in the current leaders but AI is still in its relative infancy so other challengers could still rear up from nowhere,” Dan Baker, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, told CNBC.
Still, Son has made it clear he wants to set SoftBank up with DNA that will see it survive and thrive for 300 years, according to the company’s website.
That may go some way to explain the big risks that Son takes, and his conviction when it comes to particular themes and companies — and the valuations he’s willing to pay.
“He (Son) made some mistakes, but directionally he is going in the same driection, which is — he wants to be sure that he is a real player in AI and he is making it happen,” the former Vision Fund exec said.
Technology
Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sales revenues to the U.S. government, FT reports
Photo illustration of Nvidia’s H20 chip.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Chip giant Nvidia pushed back Sunday in response to allegations from Chinese state media that its H20 artificial intelligence chips are a national security risk for China.
Earlier in the day, Reuters reported Yuyuan Tantian, an account affiliated with Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, said in an article published on WeChat that the Nvidia H20 chips are not technologically advanced or environmentally friendly.
“When a type of chip is neither environmentally friendly, nor advanced, nor safe, as consumers, we certainly have the option not to buy it,” the Yuyuan Tantian article reportedly said, adding that the article said chips could achieve functions including “remote shutdown” through a hardware “backdoor.”
In response, a Nvidia spokesperson told CNBC that “cybersecurity is critically important to us. NVIDIA does not have ‘backdoors’ in our chips that would give anyone a remote way to access or control them.”
Nvidia on Tuesday similarly rejected Chinese accusations that its AI chips include a hardware function that could remotely deactivate the chips, also known as a “kill switch.”
Tensions between the U.S. and China on semiconductor export controls have escalated in recent weeks, even after Nvidia resumed sales of its H20 chip to China. Chinese state media has framed the H20 chip as inferior and dangerous compared to Nvidia’s other chips, while the company has defended its chips.
The company’s resumption of its H20 shipments reversed a previous ban on H20 sales that was placed in April by the Trump administration. Nvidia’s H20 chips — a less-advanced semiconductor compared to its flagship H100 and B100 chips, for example — were developed by Nvidia for the Chinese market after initial export restrictions on advanced AI chips in late 2023.
U.S. export controls on some Nvidia chips are rooted in national security concerns that Beijing could use the more advanced chips to gain an advantage broadly in AI, as well as in its military applications.
Nvidia stock over the past year.
Chinese officials, meanwhile, are pushing for the U.S. to ease export controls on high-bandwidth memory chips as part of a trade deal before a possible summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has supported Trump’s policies while also lobbying for export licenses for the H20 AI chip. Huang has said he wants Nvidia to ship more advanced chips to China, underscoring his outspoken stance that Nvidia’s chips becoming the global standard for AI computing is ultimately better for the U.S. to retain market dominance and influence over global AI development.
China is among Nvidia’s largest markets. Nvidia took a $4.5 billion writedown on its unsold H20 inventory in May and has warned that its topline guidance for the July quarter would have been higher by $8 billion without the chip export restrictions.
Nvidia shares were up 1% to close at $182.70 on Friday and are up 36% this year.
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