The Ukrainian president arrives in Washington DC today, the 548th day of the war, with a plea – “do not abandon us now”.
It is a sign of the times, if not a reflection of a shifting world order, that the weakest link in the Western alliance against Russian aggression right now seems to be America’s Republican Party.
They hold the keys to unlocking continued critical funding, and President Zelenskyy knows his presence, his poise and his persuasion here today might mean everything.
And so the crux of his day in Washington will not be the White House, where he will see the president.
His focus will be Capitol Hill, and politicians who are members of a party once led by the likes of Ronald Reagan and the Bushes – national security hawks and stalwarts of western interventionism.
Transformed by Donald Trump, the Republican Party is no longer so much about projecting American principles of democracy and freedom through the might of American power.
While an old guard of Republicans still inhabits the corridors of the Senate, over in the House of Representatives, where the Republicans are the majority, there is an air of America-first isolationism.
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3:00
‘US not drip-feeding weapons to Ukraine’
Donald Trump is an enduring influence
Recent polling analysis by The New York Times characterises the Republican Party’s shift in stark terms.
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In 2005, 53% of Republican politicians believed that America should be active abroad. This year, just 24% of them think the same.
The 2005 data came just after George W. Bush was re-elected. It was a few years after 9/11 at a time when America was engaged in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Was it the futility of those wars that shifted a critical proportion of America’s political representatives?
Or was it the unquestionable power of Trumpian politics?
Probably both. The shadow of “forever wars” runs long. Donald Trump is an enduring influence.
Image: Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2019. Pic: AP
The futile battles they supported in Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t have an existential feel to them in the way that this battle with Russia does.
That fuels both sides of the Ukraine argument – to defend harder, or to back off.
Image: Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Eric Trump, former US President Donald Trump’s son
Right-wing Republicans threaten shutdown
On Capitol Hill, it comes down to a particular group of Republicans on the right flank of the party.
People like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz and others are Trumpian disruptors who have got much of the rest of the party, led by speaker Kevin McCarthy, wrapped around their fingers.
They are threatening to force a government shutdown next week if their deep opposition to Ukraine funding and other issues are not addressed.
Their cry is that President Biden and the Democrats are providing “blank cheques” for Ukraine and that there is no oversight.
Neither of these assertions are accurate.
Image: Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy speaks at the Capitol in Washington. Pic: AP
To date, America has provided Ukraine with $101bn (£81bn) in security assistance packages.
This represents about $0.68 (£0.55) per American adult per day. It has also had a positive impact on American manufacturing.
The packages are monitored by a working group of more than 160 officials across 20 federal agencies.
From the political right, the Ukraine question is often presented as a zero-sum choice: “We have our own massive challenges, why are we trying to fix someone else’s? Why protect Ukraine’s border when we can’t protect our own?”
Immigration on the southern border is an unquestionable problem.
The old Republican Party would say: “We are America – we can do both.” The new one? Not so much.
Image: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with his delegation in the UN General Assembly on Wednesday
Independence is at stake
White House officials still believe the congressional support will hold; that the leadership in both parties are behind Ukraine’s fight.
They know though that the counteroffensive they are fuelling needs decisive progress and that the perception of a rudderless “just send more weapons” approach has limits.
And so the White House maintains the language of persuasion.
The spokesperson for the president’s National Security Council said last night: “If you think that the cost of supporting Ukraine is high now, just ponder how exorbitantly higher it may be in blood and treasure if we just walk away.”
Admiral John Kirby added: “I actually think that the American people understand that what’s at stake here isn’t just the future of Ukraine… it is this idea of independence.
“It’s a founding ideal in this country, and we didn’t win our independence without foreign help either.”
Donald Trump has agreed to send “top of the line weapons” to NATO to support Ukraine – and threatened Russia with “severe” tariffs if it doesn’t agree to end the war.
Speaking with NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte during a meeting at the White House, the US president said: “We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons, and they’re going to be paying for them.
“This is billions of dollars worth of military equipment which is going to be purchased from the United States, going to NATO, and that’s going to be quickly distributed to the battlefield.”
Weapons being sent include surface-to-air Patriot missile systems and batteries, which Ukrainehas asked for to defend itself from Russian air strikes.
Mr Trump also said he was “very unhappy” with Russia, and threatened “severe tariffs” of “about 100%” if there isn’t a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days.
The White House added that the US would put “secondary sanctions” on countries that buy oil from Russia if an agreement was not reached.
Later on Monday, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Mr Trump and said he was “grateful” for the US president’s “readiness to help protect our people’s lives”.
Analysis: Will Trump’s shift in tone make a difference?
As ever, there is confusion and key questions are left unanswered, but Donald Trump’s announcement on Ukraine and Russia today remains hugely significant.
His shift in tone and policy on Ukraine is stark. And his shift in tone (and perhaps policy) on Russia is huge.
After criticising Vladimir Putin’s “desire to drag it out”, he said he appreciated “preparing a new decision on Patriots for Ukraine” – and added Kyiv is “working on major defence agreements with America”.
It comes after weeks of frustration from Mr Trump over Mr Putin’s refusal to agree to an end to the conflict, with the Russian leader telling the US president he would “not back down”from Moscow’s goals in Ukraine at the start of the month.
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1:28
Trump threatens Russia with ‘severe’ tariffs’
During the briefing on Monday, Mr Trump said he had held calls with Mr Putin where he would think “that was a nice phone call”, but then “missiles are launched into Kyiv or some other city, and that happens three or four times”.
“I don’t want to say he’s an assassin, but he’s a tough guy,” he added.
After Mr Trump’s briefing, Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev said on Telegram: “If this is all that Trump had in mind to say about Ukraine today, then all the steam has gone out.”
Meanwhile, Mr Zelenskyy met with US special envoy Keith Kellogg in Kyiv, where they “discussed the path to peace” by “strengthening Ukraine’s air defence, joint production, and procurement of defence weapons in collaboration with Europe”.
He thanked both the envoy for the visit and Mr Trump “for the important signals of support and the positive decisions for both our countries”.
As ever, there is confusion and key questions are left unanswered, but Donald Trump’s announcement on Ukraine and Russia today remains hugely significant.
His shift in tone and policy on Ukraine is stark. And his shift in tone (and perhaps policy) on Russia is huge.
Ever since Mr Trump returned to the White House he has flatly refused to side with Ukraine over the Russian invasion.
He has variously blamed Ukraine for the invasion and blamed Joe Biden for the invasion, but has never been willing to accept that Russia is the aggressor and that Ukraine has a legitimate right to defend itself.
Today, all that changed. In a clear signal that he is fed up with Vladimir Putin and now fully recognises the need to help Ukraine defend itself, he announced the US will dramatically increase weapons supplies to Kyiv.
Image: Pic: Reuters
But, in keeping with his transactional nature and in a reflection of the need to keep his isolationist “America-First” base on side, he has framed this policy shift as a multi-billion dollar “deal” in which America gains financially.
American weapons are to be “sold” to NATO partners in Europe who will then either transfer them to Ukraine or use them to bolster their own stockpiles as they transfer their own existing stocks to Kyiv.
“We’ve made a deal today,” the president said in the Oval Office. “We are going to be sending them weapons, and they are paying for them. We are manufacturing, they are going to be paying for it. Our meeting last month was very successful… these are wealthy nations.”
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2:27
What will Trump’s weapons deal mean for Ukraine?
This appears to be a clever framing of the “deal”. Firstly, America has always benefited financially by supplying weapons to Ukraine because much of the investment has been in American factories, American jobs and American supply chains.
While the details are not entirely clear, the difference now appears to be that the weapons would be bought by the Europeans or by NATO as an alliance.
The Americans are the biggest contributor to NATO, and so if the alliance is buying the weapons, America too will be paying, in part, for the weapons it is selling.
However, if the weapons are being bought by individual NATO members to replenish their own stocks, then it may be the case that the US is not paying.
NATO officials referred all questions on this issue to the White House, which has not yet provided clarity to Sky News.
It is also not yet clear what type of weapons will be made available and whether it will include offensive, as well defensive, munitions.
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1:49
Will Trump’s deal make a difference?
A key element of the package will likely be Patriot missile batteries, 10 to 15 of which are believed to be currently in Europe.
Under this deal, it is understood that some of them will be added to the six or so batteries believed to be presently in Ukraine. New ones would then be purchased from US manufacturers to backfill European stocks. A similar arrangement may be used for other weapons.
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The president also issued the Russian leader with an ultimatum, saying that Putin had 50 days to make a peace deal or else face 100% “secondary tariffs”. It’s thought this refers to a plan to tariff, or sanction, third countries that supply Russia with weapons and buy Russian oil.
This, the Americans hope, will force those countries to apply pressure on Russia.
But the 50-day kicking of the can down the road also gives Russia space to prevaricate. So, a few words of caution: first, the Russians are masters of prevarication. Second, Trump tends to let deadlines slip. And third, we all know Trump can flip-flop on his position repeatedly.
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2:00
‘Trump sides with the Ukrainian cause’
Maybe the most revealing aspect of all this came when a reporter asked Mr Trump: “How far are you willing to go if Putin sends more bombs in the coming days?”
“Don’t ask me questions like that…”
Mr Trump doesn’t really know what to do if Mr Putin continues to take him for a ride.
Mr Biden, before him, supplied Ukraine with the weapons to continue fighting.
If Mr Trump wants to end this, he may need to provide Ukraine with enough weapons to win.
But that would prolong, or even escalate, a war he wants to end now.
An X account for the Sesame Street character Elmo has been targeted by an unknown hacker who posted antisemitic and racist messages.
The profile is followed by more than 650,000 users on the social network – and usually posts upbeat and motivational updates.
Sunday’s messages, which have since been deleted, called for violence against Jews, insulted Donald Trump, and referred to alleged files related to Jeffrey Epstein.
In a statement, Sesame Workshop said the X account has now been secured – and described the posts uploaded to Elmo’s page as “disgusting”.
This is the latest controversy to befall Elon Musk’s platform in recent days.
Last week, X’s AI chatbot Grok also produced content with antisemitic tropes, which were later removed and denounced as “inappropriate”.
Musk purchased the website, formerly known as Twitter, back in 2022 – with extremist content increasing against a backdrop of less moderation.
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The Anti-Defamation League, a US organisation that fights antisemitism, said: “It’s appalling that Elmo’s official account, known for spreading kindness, was hacked solely to spread violent antisemitism.”
“Antisemitism on social media fosters the normalisation of anti-Jewish hate online and offline – and contributes to an increasingly threatening environment for Jewish people everywhere.”