Lib Dems gear up for ‘celebratory’ conference – but can they keep up the momentum?
The morning after the last election, the Liberal Democrats were left licking some pretty deep wounds.
The single issue ballot saw Boris Johnson and his Tories bring home a landslide victory with their promise to “Get Brexit Done”, while Jo Swinson’s pledge to reverse the referendum saw Lib Dem numbers in the Commons shrink from 21 to 11 – with even the leader ousted from her seat.
An internal review of the campaign called it a “high speed car crash”, and some questioned whether the party could ever have the impact it once had on the electorate again.
But skip to 2023, with Sir Ed Davey at the helm and the party’s first autumn conference since that fateful year – COVID and the Queen’s death led to the others being cancelled – and there is an audible buzz of positivity coming from its members.
With four by-election wins since the start of this parliament, ripping safe seats from the Conservatives, a stonkingly good performance at last year’s locals, and a general election on the horizon, Oxford West and Abingdon MP, Layla Moran, says: “We are really buoyant as a party, and with all those wins, the first thing we will be doing at conference is celebrating!
“This could be the last conference before the next general election (which is expected in 2024). We are confident going into the election, but confident does not mean complacent.
“We have a winning formula that has worked with winning seats in both local and by-elections. We will take that forward but with zero complacency.”
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Her fellow Lib Dem MP, Christine Jardine, who represents Edinburgh West, agrees, saying there is “excitement” in the air.
“Momentum is the right word, but also optimism,” she adds. “We have four new MPs, hundreds of new councillors, and 16 new councils. It shows we have moved on from 2019 and we are in a very different place.
“This could be the start of something.”
For anything to get started, however, the Lib Dems need to agree on a policy programme.
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Members will vote on the party’s “pre-manifesto” on Sunday, which is described as the “first draft” of what is to come in the next election campaign.
The cost of living crisis will, of course, feature heavily, with various policies to help struggling households set to be unveiled.
Women and equalities spokeswoman Ms Jardine also revealed to Sky News one such measure that falls into her brief – a push for free period products, echoing the legal right established in Scotland last year.
“I grew up in a family with three daughters,” she said. “There were four women in the house and that got expensive!
“We need to be thinking of those issues, we need to be looking at how we look after people, not just those who are in a cost of living crisis now, but also those who are just managing – as they stop managing when these economic issues hit.”
Lib Dem MPs Christine Jardine (left) and Layla Moran (right)
Climate change will also be a focus – perhaps even more so after Rishi Sunak’s watering down of the Conservatives’ green policies this week – as the party continues to double down on its campaigning around waterways and sewage.
And, despite its impact on their last national results, the topic of Brexit will still be on the agenda, with Ms Moran saying the party hadn’t “lost its roots”.
“Well, the discussion is not about ‘Brexit’ as that’s the past,” she adds. “But the country is in a total state and you have to think about the economy, so you have to think about fixing that broken relationship with the EU.”
She says the Lib Dems have a four-part plan, “starting with the low hanging fruit like rejoining Europol and schemes like Erasmus”, then “when the timing is right”, bringing up the prospect of the single market again.
“It is not off the table,” says Ms Moran. “We want to be at the heart of Europe, that’s not changed.”
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However, the “golden thread” running throughout conference will be about one service in particular – the NHS.
A senior party source revealed the “centrepiece policy” would be the legal right to see a GP within seven days.
This isn’t a new idea for the party, but it will be the first time it has been formally adopted in the manifesto.
So, why the NHS? Because the Lib Dems think voters in the seats they are targeting are feeling the impact of health service pressures like never before.
“30 years ago, when we knocked on doors in Tory seats, we spoke about the economy or crime,” said a source close to Sir Ed.
“But 30 years ago, the NHS was just about working in those more rural areas, and struggling in more urban, Labour seats.
“If you go into those rural areas now, the local NHS services have been depleted so much – for those trying to get a GP appointment, those trying to get an ambulance to show up, the fear of ending up on a cancer waiting list.
“The NHS crisis has come to these villages.”
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The Lib Dems came second in 91 seats at the last election, and 80 of those saw them come second to the Tories, with many in the so-called “Blue Wall” – the term used to describe safe Conservative seats across the south of England.
The leadership thinks they can “take a bite” out of those seats, especially by focusing on the current government’s track record when it comes to the NHS, holding a “Blue Wall summit” on Friday to welcome their marginal candidates to conference to talk tactics.
“We are key to getting the Tories out,” said a senior party source. “We want to capitalise on that – focusing on the seats where we came second in the Blue Wall.
“And we will talk a lot about the Blue Wall at conference, as well as showing off our rising stars in the party that are running in those seats.”
One person hoping to benefit from that election machine is Josh Babarinde, the Lib Dem prospective parliamentary candidate for Eastbourne.
“We run on volunteers, so what is exciting about this conference is getting together our army of activists, who don’t have masses of billionaire donors propping them up, and firing them up,” he said.
“The momentum is building and building and building. We had a bruising result in Eastbourne in the 2019 election, now people are coming into the office wanting to take to the streets and campaign for the election. The country hasn’t seen anything yet.”
The Lib Dems are determined to smash through the ‘Blue Wall’
But all this “optimism” and “excitement” appears to have its limits.
Just over 10 years ago, the Lib Dems were the kingmakers, the party who decided the next prime minister and secured themselves senior positions at the top of government.
Yet, ask MPs, strategists or members if they are aiming for power again and every answer is either a deflection or laced with trepidation.
“Ed feels strongly that so many leaders in the past got distracted by thinking about [government] without thinking about winning those seats,” said a source close to the leader.
“It creates an atmosphere of anticipation and then we don’t focus and don’t try to win seats.”
The party has already ruled out going into coalition with the Conservatives again – a decision that saw the party collapse electorally at the 2015 election and put off many of the voters that their former leader, Sir Nick Clegg, recruited.
But they have remained more open and ambiguous regarding any deal with Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour.
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“Ed fears if we start to talk about coalition, it looks as though we are taking those voters we are trying to win over for granted,” adds the source.
“We want to focus on being local champions fighting for local services.
“And remember, we won 11 seats at the last general election. There is nothing for us to be arrogant about.”
As members start to gather on the south coast, a statement from deputy leader Daisy Cooper tells them this conference will “fire the starting pistol” on the next election campaign and get activists ready for the fight.
“Our horizons are broader than when we went in for the Chesham and Amersham by-election (the first of the Lib Dem wins in this parliament),” said the source close to Sir Ed.
“Journalists laughed at me when I said we could win that seat, now they laugh at me if I say we might not win Mid Beds (the safe Tory seat left empty by the exit of Nadine Dorries).”
But while this conference is set to be one of the most positive gatherings for the Lib Dems in years, there is still a mountain to climb to get the numbers in parliament to make an impact – and a residual fear around what doing well at the next election may mean for the party’s future.
Two senior Labour MPs have suggested the prime minister may have to go within months if the government continues to perform poorly.
Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates said his sources – a member of the government and a prominent politician – have “put Sir Keir Starmer on notice”.
Both warned that, if Labour performs badly in next May’s elections across Wales, Scotland and London, it could mark the end of his time in Downing Street.
Coates added: “The level of unhappiness and despair in parts of the Labour Party is so striking that right now, on the first anniversary, I am hearing from ministers in government that Starmer might have to go in months.”
Reform UK is surging in the polls in Wales, while Labour faces a threat from left-wing parties such as the Greens in London.
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It comes as the prime minister made it clear that Rachel Reeves has his “complete support” as chancellor and remains integral to his project, Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby understands.
She looked visibly upset during Prime Minister’s Questions, with a spokesperson claiming she had been affected by a “personal matter”.
A day earlier, Sir Keir’s controversial welfare bill was passed despite a sizeable rebellion from Labour MPs, with major U-turns meaning a new £5bn black hole has appeared in the country’s finances.
One senior figure told Rigby that the pair were as “as close politically” as any chancellor and prime minister have ever been.
“She is going absolutely nowhere,” they added.
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Welfare vote ‘a blow to the prime minister’
Ms Reeves’s tears sent markets spiralling, with the value of the pound and long-term government bonds falling sharply.
Later in the day Sir Keir, said Ms Reeves will be chancellor for a “very long time to come”.
The prime minister said it was “absolutely wrong” to suggest her tearful appearance in the Commons related to the welfare U-turn.
“It’s got nothing to do with politics, nothing to do with what’s happened this week. It was a personal matter for her,” he said while speaking to the BBC’s podcast Political Thinking with Nick Robinson.
“I’m not going to intrude on her privacy by talking to you about that. It is a personal matter.”
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Asked if she will remain in post, he said: “She will be chancellor by the time this is broadcast, she will be chancellor for a very long time to come, because this project that we’ve been working on to change the Labour party, to win the election, change the country, that is a project which the chancellor and I’ve been working on together.”
He said Ms Reeves has done a “fantastic job” and added: “She and I work together, we think together. In the past, there have been examples – I won’t give any specific – of chancellors and prime ministers who weren’t in lockstep. We’re in lockstep.”
Sir Keir Starmer will set out his 10-year vision for the NHS in what the government says is “one of the most seismic shifts” in the health service’s history.
He will pledge three main facets of the plan: moving care into the community, digitising the NHS, and a focus on sickness prevention.
The prime minister will announce neighbourhood health services will be rolled out across England to improve access to the NHS and to shift care out of overstrained hospitals.
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What will the NHS 10-year health plan focus on?
Sir Keir has already promised thousands more GPs will be trained, and to end the 8am “scramble” for an appointment.
He also previously said his government will bring the NHS into the digital age, with “groundbreaking” new tools to support GPs rolled out over the next two years – including AI to take notes, draft letters and enter data.
And he will promise new contracts that will encourage and allow GP practices to cover a wider geographical area, so small practices will get more support.
Unite, one of the UK’s largest healthcare unions, welcomed the plan cautiously but said staff need to be the focus to ensure people are better looked after.
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‘Reform or die’
Sir Keir said: “The NHS should be there for everyone, whenever they need it.
“But we inherited a health system in crisis, addicted to a sticking plaster approach, and unable to face up to the challenges we face now, let alone in the future.
“That ends now. Because it’s reform or die.”
He said the government’s plan “will fundamentally rewire and futureproof our NHS, so that it puts care on people’s doorsteps, harnesses game-changing tech and prevents illness in the first place”.
The PM said it would not be an “overnight fix”, but claimed Labour are “already turning the tide on years of decline”, pointing towards more than four million extra appointments, 1,900 more GPs, and waiting lists at a two-year low.
“But there’s more to come,” he promised. “This government is giving patients easier, quicker and more convenient care, wherever they live.”
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Why has Starmer axed NHS England?
Neighbourhood health services
The newly announced neighbourhood health services will provide “pioneering teams” in local communities, so patients can more conveniently access a full range of healthcare services close to home.
Local areas will be encouraged to trial innovative schemes like community outreach door-to-door to detect early signs of illness and reduce pressure on GPs and A&E.
The aim is to eventually have new health centres open 12 hours a day, six days a week to offer GP services as well as diagnostics, post-operative care and rehab.
They will also offer services like debt advice, employment support, stop smoking help or weight management.
More NHS dentists
Dentists will also be part of the plan, with dental care professionals part of the neighbourhood teams.
Dental “therapists” will carry out check-ups, treatments and referrals, while dental nurses could give education and advice to parents or work with schools and community groups.
Newly qualified dentists will be required to practice in the NHS for a minimum period, which they have said will be three years.
Despite making “significant improvements”, Greater Manchester Police (GMP) has lost the “trust and confidence” of some victims of grooming gangs, according to a report by the police watchdog.
Michelle Skeer, His Majesty’s Inspector of Constabulary, said that since 2019, when GMP started to review its non-recent child sexual exploitation investigations, “the force has improved its understanding and approach to investigating allegations of child criminal and sexual exploitation”.
The document, published today, said police have live investigations into “multi-victim, multi-offender” child sexual exploitation inquiries, involving 714 victims and survivors, and 1,099 suspects.
Grooming gangs scandal timeline
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‘Our chance for justice’
But despite recording improvements, a report by His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (HMICFRS) also identified:
• Various training gaps within the investigation team
• Lack of consistency in evaluating case files between social care, health and police
• Failures to initially support victims meant they had “lost trust and confidence” in police
The report was commissioned by the Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham in 2024 to evaluate whether police, councils and health services can protect children from sexual exploitation in the future.
Its release comes days after Sir Keir Starmer announced he was launching a new national inquiry into grooming gangs after previously arguing one was not necessary,
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Starmer to launch new grooming gang inquiry
The findings were issued as the final part of the CSE (child sexual exploitation) Assurance Review process which started in 2017. The first three reports examined non-recent child sexual exploitation in Manchester, Oldham and Rochdale.
Mr Skeer said that the force has been trying to improve its service to those who have experienced sexual exploitation, but previous failings have badly affected trust in GMP.
He said: “For some, trust and confidence in the police had been lost, and the force would not be able to rectify their experiences.
“It is vital that improvements are led by victims’ experiences, and if they do come forward, they are supported, protected and taken seriously.”
A recent report by Baroness Casey found a significant over-representation of Asian men who are suspects in grooming gangs in Greater Manchester, adding though authorities are in “denial” more needs to be done to understand why this is the case.
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Teen caught in child sex exploitation
Inspectors also said there were “training gaps” in some investigation teams and issues with data sharing, with local councils sometimes not willing to provide detectives with information, leading to “significant delays in investigations” into grooming gangs.
It cites problems with intelligence provided by Manchester City Council, which took months to arrive and “was so heavily redacted that some pages contained only a few words”, the report said.
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GMP is the only force in the country to set up a dedicated team to investigate grooming gangs. Called the Child Sexual Exploitation Major Investigation Team (CSE MIT) it has about 100 staff and a ringfenced budget.
In October 2024, the force told inspectors there were 59 live multi-victim, multi-offender child sexual exploitation investigations, of which 13 were being managed by the CSE MIT.
The report adds: “The force fully accepts that it made mistakes in the past.
“It has taken positive and effective steps to learn from these mistakes and improve how it investigates recent and non-recent child sexual exploitation.”
Separately, the Baird Inquiry published in July 2024 found officers at GMP were abusing their power – making unlawful arrests, unlawful and demeaning strip searches, sometimes treating victims as perpetrators, and traumatising those who have suffered sexual abuse or domestic violence.
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