Lib Dems gear up for ‘celebratory’ conference – but can they keep up the momentum?

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2 years ago

September 22, 2023

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The morning after the last election, the Liberal Democrats were left licking some pretty deep wounds.

The single issue ballot saw Boris Johnson and his Tories bring home a landslide victory with their promise to “Get Brexit Done”, while Jo Swinson’s pledge to reverse the referendum saw Lib Dem numbers in the Commons shrink from 21 to 11 – with even the leader ousted from her seat.

An internal review of the campaign called it a “high speed car crash”, and some questioned whether the party could ever have the impact it once had on the electorate again.

But skip to 2023, with Sir Ed Davey at the helm and the party’s first autumn conference since that fateful year – COVID and the Queen’s death led to the others being cancelled – and there is an audible buzz of positivity coming from its members.

With four by-election wins since the start of this parliament, ripping safe seats from the Conservatives, a stonkingly good performance at last year’s locals, and a general election on the horizon, Oxford West and Abingdon MP, Layla Moran, says: “We are really buoyant as a party, and with all those wins, the first thing we will be doing at conference is celebrating!

“This could be the last conference before the next general election (which is expected in 2024). We are confident going into the election, but confident does not mean complacent.

“We have a winning formula that has worked with winning seats in both local and by-elections. We will take that forward but with zero complacency.”

Her fellow Lib Dem MP, Christine Jardine, who represents Edinburgh West, agrees, saying there is “excitement” in the air.

“Momentum is the right word, but also optimism,” she adds. “We have four new MPs, hundreds of new councillors, and 16 new councils. It shows we have moved on from 2019 and we are in a very different place.

“This could be the start of something.”

For anything to get started, however, the Lib Dems need to agree on a policy programme.

Members will vote on the party’s “pre-manifesto” on Sunday, which is described as the “first draft” of what is to come in the next election campaign.

The cost of living crisis will, of course, feature heavily, with various policies to help struggling households set to be unveiled.

Women and equalities spokeswoman Ms Jardine also revealed to Sky News one such measure that falls into her brief – a push for free period products, echoing the legal right established in Scotland last year.

“I grew up in a family with three daughters,” she said. “There were four women in the house and that got expensive!

“We need to be thinking of those issues, we need to be looking at how we look after people, not just those who are in a cost of living crisis now, but also those who are just managing – as they stop managing when these economic issues hit.”

Climate change will also be a focus – perhaps even more so after Rishi Sunak’s watering down of the Conservatives’ green policies this week – as the party continues to double down on its campaigning around waterways and sewage.

And, despite its impact on their last national results, the topic of Brexit will still be on the agenda, with Ms Moran saying the party hadn’t “lost its roots”.

“Well, the discussion is not about ‘Brexit’ as that’s the past,” she adds. “But the country is in a total state and you have to think about the economy, so you have to think about fixing that broken relationship with the EU.”

She says the Lib Dems have a four-part plan, “starting with the low hanging fruit like rejoining Europol and schemes like Erasmus”, then “when the timing is right”, bringing up the prospect of the single market again.

“It is not off the table,” says Ms Moran. “We want to be at the heart of Europe, that’s not changed.”

However, the “golden thread” running throughout conference will be about one service in particular – the NHS.

A senior party source revealed the “centrepiece policy” would be the legal right to see a GP within seven days.

This isn’t a new idea for the party, but it will be the first time it has been formally adopted in the manifesto.

So, why the NHS? Because the Lib Dems think voters in the seats they are targeting are feeling the impact of health service pressures like never before.

“30 years ago, when we knocked on doors in Tory seats, we spoke about the economy or crime,” said a source close to Sir Ed.

“But 30 years ago, the NHS was just about working in those more rural areas, and struggling in more urban, Labour seats.

“If you go into those rural areas now, the local NHS services have been depleted so much – for those trying to get a GP appointment, those trying to get an ambulance to show up, the fear of ending up on a cancer waiting list.

“The NHS crisis has come to these villages.”

The Lib Dems came second in 91 seats at the last election, and 80 of those saw them come second to the Tories, with many in the so-called “Blue Wall” – the term used to describe safe Conservative seats across the south of England.

The leadership thinks they can “take a bite” out of those seats, especially by focusing on the current government’s track record when it comes to the NHS, holding a “Blue Wall summit” on Friday to welcome their marginal candidates to conference to talk tactics.

“We are key to getting the Tories out,” said a senior party source. “We want to capitalise on that – focusing on the seats where we came second in the Blue Wall.

“And we will talk a lot about the Blue Wall at conference, as well as showing off our rising stars in the party that are running in those seats.”

One person hoping to benefit from that election machine is Josh Babarinde, the Lib Dem prospective parliamentary candidate for Eastbourne.

“We run on volunteers, so what is exciting about this conference is getting together our army of activists, who don’t have masses of billionaire donors propping them up, and firing them up,” he said.

“The momentum is building and building and building. We had a bruising result in Eastbourne in the 2019 election, now people are coming into the office wanting to take to the streets and campaign for the election. The country hasn’t seen anything yet.”

But all this “optimism” and “excitement” appears to have its limits.

Just over 10 years ago, the Lib Dems were the kingmakers, the party who decided the next prime minister and secured themselves senior positions at the top of government.

Yet, ask MPs, strategists or members if they are aiming for power again and every answer is either a deflection or laced with trepidation.

“Ed feels strongly that so many leaders in the past got distracted by thinking about [government] without thinking about winning those seats,” said a source close to the leader.

“It creates an atmosphere of anticipation and then we don’t focus and don’t try to win seats.”

The party has already ruled out going into coalition with the Conservatives again – a decision that saw the party collapse electorally at the 2015 election and put off many of the voters that their former leader, Sir Nick Clegg, recruited.

But they have remained more open and ambiguous regarding any deal with Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour.

“Ed fears if we start to talk about coalition, it looks as though we are taking those voters we are trying to win over for granted,” adds the source.

“We want to focus on being local champions fighting for local services.

“And remember, we won 11 seats at the last general election. There is nothing for us to be arrogant about.”

As members start to gather on the south coast, a statement from deputy leader Daisy Cooper tells them this conference will “fire the starting pistol” on the next election campaign and get activists ready for the fight.

“Our horizons are broader than when we went in for the Chesham and Amersham by-election (the first of the Lib Dem wins in this parliament),” said the source close to Sir Ed.

“Journalists laughed at me when I said we could win that seat, now they laugh at me if I say we might not win Mid Beds (the safe Tory seat left empty by the exit of Nadine Dorries).”

But while this conference is set to be one of the most positive gatherings for the Lib Dems in years, there is still a mountain to climb to get the numbers in parliament to make an impact – and a residual fear around what doing well at the next election may mean for the party’s future.

Politics

Trump blasts ‘too late’ Powell for not cutting interest rates

Published

2 hours ago

April 17, 2025

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Trump blasts ‘too late’ Powell for not cutting interest rates

US President Donald Trump renewed his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, accusing him of being too slow to cut interest rates and escalating a long-running conflict that risks undermining the central bank’s political independence.

With the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates again on April 17, “Too Late” Powell has failed to act appropriately in the United States, even with inflation falling, Trump said on Truth Social on April 17.

“Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” Trump said.

Florida Senator Rick Scott agreed with the president, saying, “it’s time for new leadership at the Federal Reserve.”

Trump’s public criticism of the Fed breaks a decades-long convention in American politics that sought to safeguard the central bank from political scrutiny, which includes any executive decision to replace the chair.

In an April 16 address at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said Fed independence is “a matter of law.” Powell previously signaled his intent to serve out the remainder of his tenure, which expires in May 2026.

Crypto, risk assets look to the Fed for guidance

The Federal Reserve wields significant influence over financial markets, with its monetary policy decisions affecting US dollar liquidity and shaping investor sentiment.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, crypto markets have increasingly come under the Fed’s sphere of influence due to the rising correlation between dollar liquidity and asset prices.

This was further corroborated by a 2024 academic paper written by Kingston University of London professors Jinsha Zhao and J Miao, which concluded that liquidity conditions now account for more than 65% of Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements.

As inflation moderates and market turmoil intensifies amid the trade war, Fed officials are facing mounting pressure to cut interest rates. However, Powell has reiterated the central bank’s wait-and-see approach as officials evaluate the potential impact of tariffs.

The Fed is expected to maintain its wait-and-see policy approach at its next meeting in May, with Fed Fund futures prices implying a less than 10% chance of a rate cut. However, rate cut bets have increased to more than 65% for the Fed’s June policy meeting.

Politics

Wyoming commission floats whether stablecoin is ‘covered’ by SEC rules

Published

2 hours ago

April 17, 2025

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<div>Wyoming commission floats whether stablecoin is 'covered' by SEC rules</div>

The Wyoming Stable Token Commission, a body authorized by the US state to issue a stablecoin, has suggested that it may clarify its language to better comply with potential guidelines from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

In an April 17 meeting in the extension of the Wyoming Capitol building, Commissioner Joel Revill suggested the body could reduce the risk of the state’s proposed WYST stablecoin qualifying as a security under SEC rules. The discussion among the commissioners and Executive Director Anthony Apollo followed the SEC issuing guidelines that certain “covered stablecoins” were considered” non-securities” and largely not subject to reporting requirements.

Government, SEC, Wyoming, Stablecoin — *Wyoming Stable Token Commission Executive Director Anthony Apollo with Senator Cynthia Lummis. Source:* *LinkedIn*

“We’re looking to kind of create our own vernacular around some of this, to clarify, and then use that as a jumping off point of discussion for the commission,” said Apollo, adding there were internal discussions regarding the SEC guidance but the commission was scheduled to address the matter in a May memo.

The commission, established after Wyoming passed a law to issue a state-issued stablecoin pegged to the US dollar and redeemable for fiat currency, has been exploring issues surrounding WYST. Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon said in August that the government initially planned a launch in the first quarter of 2025 for the stablecoin, later amending the timeline to potentially launch in July.

Looking to the US Congress for guidance

The commission said it would be monitoring efforts by the federal government to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Among the proposed legislation was the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act, in the Senate, and the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy, or STABLE Act, in the House of Representatives.

Though Wyoming is the least populated US state, with roughly 600,000 people, it has become home to some crypto firms likely seeking a regulatory-friendly jurisdiction. Custodia Bank, the digital asset bank established by Caitlin Long, is based in Cheyenne. US Senator Cynthia Lummis, who often advocates for crypto-friendly policies, represents Wyoming in the Senate.

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Politics

How Meta’s antitrust case could dampen AI development

Published

7 hours ago

April 17, 2025

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How Meta’s antitrust case could dampen AI development

Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, is facing antitrust proceedings that could limit its ability to develop AI amid a field of competitors.

First filed in 2021, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) alleges that Meta’s strategy of absorbing firms — rather than competing with them — violates antitrust laws. If the court rules against Meta, it could be forced to spin out its various messenger services and social media sites into independent companies.

The loss of its stable of social media companies could harm Facebook’s competitiveness not only in the social media industry but also in its ability to train and develop its proprietary Llama AI models with data from those sites.

The trial could take anywhere from a couple of months to a year, but the outcome will have lasting consequences on Meta’s standing in the AI race.

Meta’s antitrust case and its effect on AI

The FTC first opened its complaint against Meta in 2020 when the firm was still operating as Facebook. The agency’s amended complaint a year later alleges that Meta (then Facebook) used an illegal “buy-or-bury” scheme on more creative competitors after its “failed attempts to develop innovative mobile features for its network.” This resulted in a monopoly of the “friends and family” social media market.

Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg had the chance to address these allegations on April 14, the first day of the official FTC v. Meta trial. He testified that only 20% of user content on Facebook and some 10% on Instagram was generated by users’ friends. The nature of social media has changed, Zuckerberg claimed.

“People just kept on engaging with more and more stuff that wasn’t what their friends were doing,” he said — meaning that the nature of Meta’s social media holdings was sufficiently diverse.

At the time of the FTC’s initial complaint, Meta called the allegations “revisionist history,” a claim it repeated on April 13 when it stated the agency was “ignoring reality.” The company has argued that the purchases of Instagram and WhatsApp have benefited users and that competition has appeared in the form of YouTube and TikTok.

If the District of Columbia Circuit Court rules against Meta, the global social media giant will be forced to unwind these services into independent firms. Jasmine Enberg, vice president and principal analyst at eMarketer, told the Los Angeles Times that such a ruling could cost Meta its competitive edge in the social media market.

“Instagram really is its biggest growth driver, in the sense that it has been picking up the slack for Facebook for a long time, especially on the user front when it comes to young people,” said Enberg. “Facebook hasn’t been where the cool college kids hang out for a long time.”

Such a ruling would also affect the pool of data from which Meta can draw to train its AI models. In July 2024, Meta halted the rollout of AI models in the European Union, citing “regulatory uncertainty.”

The pause came after privacy advocacy group None of Your Business filed complaints in 11 European countries against Meta’s use of public data from its platforms to train its AI models. The Irish Data Protection Commission subsequently ordered a pause on the practice until it could conduct a review.

On April 14, Meta got the go-ahead to use public data — i.e., posts and comments from adult users across all of its platforms — to train the model. If these firms dissolved into separate companies, with their own organizational structures and data protection policies and practices, Meta would be cut off from an ocean of data and human communication with which its AI could be improved.

Andrew Rossow, a cyberspace attorney with Minc Law and CEO of AR Media Consulting, told Cointelegraph that in such an event, “companies would most likely control their own user data, and Meta would be restricted from using it unless new data-sharing agreements were negotiated, which would be subject to regulatory scrutiny and user/consumer privacy laws.”

However, Rossow noted that it wouldn’t be a total loss for Meta. Zuckerberg’s firm would retain the wealth of data from Facebook and Messenger. It could continue to use “opt-in” data from consumers who allow their posts to be used for AI training, and it could also employ synthetic data sets as well as third-party and open data.

Meta, the AI race and data protections

The race to unseat OpenAI and its ChatGPT model from AI dominance has grown more competitive in the last year as DeepSeek joined the fray and Meta launched the fourth iteration of its open-source Llama model.

In addition to training new models, major AI development firms are investing billions in new data centers to accommodate new iterations. In January 2025, Meta announced the construction of a 2-gigawatt data center with more than 1.3 million Nvidia AI graphics processing units.

Zuckerberg wrote in a post on Threads, “This will be a defining year for AI. In 2025, I expect Meta AI will be the leading assistant serving more than 1 billion people […] To power this, Meta is building a 2GW+ datacenter that is so large it would cover a significant part of Manhattan.”

His announcement followed the $500-billion Stargate project, which would see massive investment in AI development led by OpenAI and SoftBank, with Microsoft and Oracle as equity partners.

Amid this competition, AI firms are looking for broader and more varied sources of data to train their AI models — and have turned to dubious practices in order to get the data they need. In order to stay competitive with OpenAI when developing its Llama 3 model, Meta harvested thousands of pirated books from the site LibGen. According to court documents in a case pending against Meta, Llama developers harvested data from pirated books because licensing them from sources like Scribd seemed “unreasonably expensive.”

Time was another perceived motivator for using pirated works. “They take like 4+ weeks to deliver data,” one engineer wrote about services through which they could purchase book licenses.

The practice is not limited to Meta. OpenAI has also been accused of mining data from pirated work hosted on LibGen.

Rossow suggested that, “to ensure lasting impact — beyond short-term profit,” Meta would do well to “prioritize investment in advanced data collection, rigorous auditing and the implementation of privacy-preserving and encryption-based technologies.”

By focusing on transparency and responsible practices, “Meta can continue to genuinely advance AI capabilities, rebuild and nurture long-term user trust, and adapt to evolving legal and ethical standards, regardless of changes to its platform portfolio.”

What a ruling for the FTC would mean

Litigation is now hitting tech firms from all sides as they face allegations of privacy violations, copyright law infringement and stifling competition. Major cases like those facing Google, Amazon and Meta that have yet to play out will decide how and whether these firms can proceed as they have, defining the guardrails for AI development as well.

Rossow said that the current antitrust case against Meta could decide how courts interpret antitrust law for tech firms, spanning tech mergers, data usage and market competition. It would also signal that courts are “willing to break up tech conglomerates” when issues of smothering competition are involved, while at the same time, “taking current precedent a step further in harmonizing it with the laws of cyberspace.”

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