The return of summer weather last month helped retail sales recover despite a hit from weaker demand for fuel, according to official figures.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 0.4% rise – a figure that grew to 0.6% when the effects of fuel sales were excluded.
It said stronger clothing sales drove the increase but fuel sales volumes were 1.2% lower – likely the result of a surge in pump costs due to rising global oil prices.
The bounce-back for overall sales followed an upwardly revised 1.1% decline in July compared to the previous month when wet weather was blamed for people shying away from summer fashion purchases in physical stores.
ONS senior statistician Heather Bovill said: “Retail recovered a little from the large fall seen in July, driven by a partial bounce back in food and a strong month for clothing, though sales overall remain subdued.
“These were partially offset by internet sales, which dropped slightly as some people returned to shopping in person following a very wet July. Fuel sales also fell, with increased prices hitting demand.”
Recent RAC data suggested that costs for both unleaded and diesel were up by more than 10p a litre since the beginning of August, reflecting the highest prices for Brent crude oil seen in 10 months.
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Image: The cost of oil has surged globally on the back of production cuts. File pic
Production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia have been blamed for the hikes, with pump prices likely to have further to go to reflect the current level for Brent.
The ONS data is keenly awaited as household spending accounts for a majority of the UK economy – currently flatlining.
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A measure of activity covering manufacturing and services, though excluding retail, indicated a growing risk of recession ahead.
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) said its readings on activity during September – which are subject to revision when full data becomes available – pointed to a contraction in quarterly output of 0.4%.
It was released as a closely-watched measure of consumer confidence showed improvement.
The GfK index, which measures consumer attitudes, showed a four point improvement for September but remaining well inside negative territory.
Joe Staton, the company’s client strategy director, suggested that its findings were more bullish amid the shifting sands of the cost of living crisis, with the headline figure now back in line with January 2022.
“The view on our personal financial situation for the past year and the next is registering marginal but welcome growth, while expectations for the UK’s wider economy in the coming year show a more robust six-point increase.
“And with less than 100 shopping days to Christmas, the four-point boost to the major purchase measure might offer some hope to retailers, who know all too well that many people face financial pressure in the run-up to this year’s festive season.”
The confidence readings were taken in advance of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate announcement though rate-setters did have access to the PMI data.
Their decision to maintain Bank rate at 5.25% was due to reductions in key inflation indicators but the nine-member monetary policy committee will have also been concerned by the recession risks flagged by firms taking part in the PMI survey.
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Bailey: ‘We cannot be complacent’
That said, following 14 consecutive increases to tackle surging inflation, its rate-setting committee will be anxious to see if the move heralds a pick-up in demand, such as in consumer spending.
That scenario would be a concern as wages are currently outstripping the rate of inflation and any spending splurge would be seen as an added pressure.
While the Bank’s pause on rate hikes gives some security to borrowers that things like mortgage costs should not go up further for now, the governor signalled that it would have to act again if the pace of price rises accelerated and was clear that there was no prospect of a rate cut any time soon.
The Chancellor borrowed more than expected at the start of the new tax year, piling more pressure on the public finances ahead of next month’s spending review.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed estimated net borrowing of £20.2bn in April – higher than the £17.9bn forecast by economists and the fourth highest April total on record.
That was despite a £1.7bn projected boost from employer national insurance contributions – hiked in October’s budget to help get the public finances in order and which kicked-in on 6 April.
The main reasons for the rise in borrowing included increases in public sector pay, along with higher benefits and state pensions, the ONS said.
The data will do nothing to ease nerves over the state of the nation’s coffers amid renewed concerns Rachel Reeves may be forced to act again, in the autumn budget, to meet her own “non-negotiable” fiscal rules.
They say she must balance day-to-day spending with revenues by 2029-30, while improving public services and targeting accelerated economic growth.
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The Chancellor was forced to restore a £10bn buffer at the spring statement in March, led by planned welfare curbs, after the economy flatlined.
A further restoration of headroom may be on the cards in October, given that stronger growth in the first quarter of the year is forecast to prove elusive across the rest of 2025.
The run-up to next month’s spending review – which sets budgets for government departments – has been dominated by a political row over one of her first actions in the role, which saw universal winter fuel payments stopped.
The prospect of a higher bill ahead will do nothing to ease the cost of servicing government debt, with bond market investors continuing to demand a higher premium to hold UK gilts.
Their concerns include not only the forecasts for slowing growth but also persistent inflation.
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What the inflation increase means for you
One good bit of news for Ms Reeves was a downwards revision by the ONS to its government borrowing figure for the last financial year.
The total dropped by almost £4bn to £148.3bn.
The shift was explained by higher tax receipts but the sum still remained about £11bn above the updated forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, said of the ONS figures: “After years of economic instability crippling the public purse, we have taken the decisions to stabilise our public finances, which has helped deliver four interest rate cuts since August, cutting the cost of borrowing for businesses and working people.
“We’re fixing the NHS, with three million more appointments to bring waiting lists down, rebuilding Britain with our landmark planning reforms and strengthening our borders, delivering on the priorities of the country through our plan for change.”
There is a growing school of thought that Ms Reeves will need to raise taxes in October if she is to meet her commitments, including her fiscal rules.
Lindsay James, investor strategist at wealth management firm Quilter, said: “The decision to hold off on tax rises in the spring budget increasingly looks like a temporary reprieve.
“As borrowing continues to outstrip forecasts and debt interest costs remain elevated, pressure is building on the chancellor to make tougher choices.”
BTC had first managed to hit $109,000 on 20 January – the day Mr Trump was inaugurated – with investors hopeful that he would introduce a slew of pro-crypto policies.
Despite the president coming good on some of those promises, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency soon fell, amid accusations these policies didn’t go far enough.
The White House has confirmed the US will treat Bitcoin seized from criminals as an investment, but there was disappointment when it was confirmed the government would not be buying additional coins for its “strategic reserve” using taxpayers’ money.
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Bitcoin also took a battering in the immediate aftermath of Mr Trump’s controversial “Liberation Day” tariffs – slumping to lows of $75,000 in April as investors dumped riskier assets.
There are several factors behind this recent comeback, with laws designed to regulate the crypto sector now advancing through the US Senate for the first time.
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Feb: Hackers steal $1.5bn in cryptocurrency.
Interest in Bitcoin is also growing among hedge funds and financial institutions, while some companies are now in a race to buy as much of this cryptocurrency as possible.
One company called Strategy now has a war chest of 576,230 BTC worth $63bn – resulting in handsome profits of more than $23bn.
Part of BTC’s appeal lies in how it has a limited supply of 21 million coins, whereas the amount of traditional currencies in circulation often increases over time.
The latest milestone will likely contribute to a euphoric atmosphere when the president hosts a controversial dinner tomorrow for 220 of the biggest investors in $TRUMP, his very own cryptocurrency.
It also coincides with Bitcoin 2025 – the biggest crypto conference in the world – which is due to begin in Las Vegas on Tuesday – and growing financial market concerns about the size of the US government’s ballooning debt pile.
Nigel Green, chief executive of global financial advisory firm deVere Group, expects Bitcoin to set new milestones in the coming months.
“$150,000 no longer looks ambitious – it looks cautious,” he wrote in a note.
“Several forces have aligned to propel the market. A cooler-than-expected US inflation print, an easing in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, and the Moody’s downgrade of US sovereign debt have all steered investors toward alternatives to traditional fiat-based stores of value.
“Bitcoin, often likened to digital gold, is soaking up that demand.
“In a world where sovereign credibility is fraying, investors are shifting decisively into assets that can’t be diluted or manipulated. Bitcoin has become not just a speculative play, but a strategic hedge.”
The M&S website is down – hours after the retailer revealed it’s facing a £300m hit to profits following last month’s ransomware attack.
A holding page told customers that they are currently unable to browse the site, adding: “We’re making some updates and will be back soon.”
Online purchases have been suspended since the incident on 22 April, and it may be a couple of weeks before services are partially restored.
Sky News understands that the maintenance is routine.
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Who is behind M&S cyberattack?
M&S recently warned that disruption to its operations could last into July, but chief executive Stuart Machin says the retailer is “on the road to recovery”.
It is widely believed the retailer fell victim to Scattered Spider, a hacking group that has also been linked to similar attacks targeting The Co-op and Harrods.
Passwords were also not affected, but there are reports that contact details such as names, addresses and phone numbers was taken.
Image: Empty shelves were seen in stores in the immediate aftermath of the cyberattack. Pic: SponPlague
The company’s valuation has plunged by more than £1bn as the fallout deepens.
“This incident is a bump in the road, and we will come out of this in better shape, and continue our plan to reshape M&S for customers, colleagues and shareholders,” Mr Machin told analysts on Wednesday.