Russia imposed an indefinite ban on the export of diesel and gasoline to most countries, a move that risks disrupting fuel supplies ahead of winter and threatens to exacerbate global shortages.
In a government decree signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the Kremlin said Thursday that it would introduce “temporary” restrictions on diesel exports to stabilize fuel prices on the domestic market.
The ban, which came into immediate effect and applies to all countries apart from four former Soviet states, does not have an end date. The countries exempt from the ban include Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, all of which are members of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union.
Russia is one of the world’s largest suppliers of diesel and a major exporter of crude oil. Market participants are concerned about the potential impact of Russia’s ban, particularly at a time when global diesel inventories are already at low levels. Oil prices jumped as much as $1 a barrel on the news on Thursday, before settling lower for the session.
Energy analysts said the vague language used in Russia’s announcement made it difficult to assess exactly how long the ban would remain in place and warned that Moscow could once again be seeking to weaponize fuel supplies ahead of another winter heating season.
A spokesperson for the Kremlin said Friday that the fuel export ban would last for as long as necessary to ensure market stability, Reuters reported.
In the weeks leading up to Thursday’s intervention, analysts said Russian diesel exports had come under pressure due to the weakness of the ruble, domestic refinery maintenance and government-led efforts to increase domestic supply.
“All deals agreed before the regulation took effect are still on, meaning the likelihood of an immediate halt in diesel and gasoline exports is unlikely, most probably it would take 1-2 weeks for the impact to transpire,” Viktor Katona, lead analyst at Kpler, said in a research note published Friday.
“By that point, however, the government might already annul this specific piece of legislation, as abruptly as it was published,” he added.
What impact could the ban have?
Prior to the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year, Russian refineries exported an estimated 2.8 million barrels per day of oil products. That figure has since fallen to around 1 million barrels per day, according to ING, but Moscow still remains a major player in global energy markets.
Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said in a research note published Friday that Russia’s ban on fuel exports was a major development ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, a period which would typically see a seasonal pick-up in demand.
“The middle distillate market was already seeing significant strength ahead of this ban with inventories tight in the US, Europe and Asia as we head into the Northern Hemisphere winter,” Patterson said, citing factors such as OPEC+ production cuts, recovering air travel and Europe’s struggle to replace Russian middle distillates after a ban came into effect in February.
“The loss of around [1 million barrels per day] of Russian diesel in the global market will be felt and only reinforces the supportive view we have held on middle distillate cracks and as a result on refinery margins,” he added. “How much upside really depends on the duration of the ban.”
Oil storage tanks in Tuapse, Russia, March 22, 2020.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia said on Sept. 5 that it would extend its 1 million barrel per day production cut through to year-end, with non-OPEC leader Russia pledging to reduce oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. Both countries have said they will review their voluntary cuts on a monthly basis.
“The purpose of the ban is apparently to address tightness and high prices in domestic Russian markets, where high oil prices combined with a weakened rouble, must be painful for Russian consumers,” Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, said Friday.
“However, there are also echoes with disruptions to Russian gas supplies to Europe that started in 2021. They also began as supposedly temporary disruptions while gas was held back to fill domestic storage — we all know what happened there,” he added.
“It might be a coincidence that this ban has been announced the day after Russia had a tough time at the UN, or it might be a broadening of the policy of using energy as a weapon in reaction to that.”
Although sales of Porsche’s first EV, the Taycan, fell nearly 50% in 2024, things could be looking up for the sports car maker. After its “launch literally electrified us,” the electric Porsche Macan may spark a comeback this year.
Why did Porsche’s EV sales drop in 2024?
Porsche delivered over 310,700 vehicles globally last year, or about 9,500 less than in 2023. Sales in China led the downfall, plunging 28% from the prior year amid a wave of low-cost domestic EVs entering the market.
In total, Porsche delivered 20,836 Taycan EVs to customers last year, down 49% from 2023. The lower total comes after launching the upgraded 2025 Taycan last year. Porsche also said, “The ramp-up of electric mobility is generally proceeding more slowly than planned” as part of the reason.
In its largest sales market, North America, Porsche delivered over 86,500 vehicles in 2024. Although that’s up a mere 1% from 2023, Porsche’s EV sales also took a hit.
Porsche sold 4,747 Taycan models in the US last year, 37% fewer than in 2023. The 2025 model began arriving at US dealerships last Summer, which helped push sales up nearly 75% in the fourth quarter to 2,358.
Meanwhile, Porsche’s second EV, the electric Macan, could have an even bigger impact. After delivering the first models at the end of September, Porsche delivered 18,278 electric Macans by the end of 2024.’
“This launch literally electrified us. I am therefore particularly pleased that more than 18,000 examples of the all-electric variant have already been delivered,” Porsche AG board member for sales and marketing, Detlev von Platen, said.
Porsche sold 2,771 electric Macan SUVs in the US last year. On a call with reporters (via Automotive News), the company’s North American CEO, Timo Resch, said, “A lot of the consumers that come into the Macan Electric are [new to the] brand.”
Electrek’s Take
I’m not here to say the electric Macan will be Porsche’s savior, but the strong sales start is promising. Porsche has already backtracked on plans for 80% of deliveries to be electric by 2030.
According to recent reports, the electric Cayenne, due out in 2026, could be delayed depending on market demand. The upcoming 718 Cayman and Boxster EVs could also face delays as Porsche plans to keep gas and hybrid models alive longer than expected.
Looking ahead, Porsche also plans to introduce an ultra-luxury electric SUV to sit above the Cayenne, codenamed “K1” internally. It’s expected to compete with Range Rover and Ferrari’s first electric SUVs.
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Elon Musk complains that Tesla is not getting subsidies for its electric truck chargers while calling for the end of electric vehicle subsidies in the US.
However, it wasn’t included in any round of funding, including the latest one announced this week, which should be the latest now that Trump is getting into office and campaigned on ending electric vehicle subsidies.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk contributed more than $240 million to get Trump elected and supported his goal of removing subsidies for electric vehicles.
That’s why it’s surprising to see Musk comment on the news in disappointment. He wrote on X: “Hear we go again (sigh)”.
While this specific project wasn’t funded, 49 other projects shared over $600 million in funding that will deploy more than 11,500 EV charging ports across 27 states, four federally recognized tribes, and the District of Columbia.
Also, while Tesla didn’t get any funding in this round, Tesla has received millions in funding for its charging stations in the previous round.
Electrek’s Take
I think that’s fair. If you are actively lobbying for the end of EV subsidies in the US, a market that is far behind the rest of the world in EV adoption, why should the administration that is investing in correcting that give you the subsidies you are trying to end?
It makes no sense. That’s why I also support California in signaling that if the Federal government removes its EV subsidies, it will replace them at the state level, but Tesla will be left out.
It’s especially fair considering Elon has made it clear that the reason he wants to kill EV subsidies, which Tesla was the biggest beneficiary of, is that he believes it will put more pressure on the competition than Tesla and potentially kill them while only Tesla will remain.
He basically wants to pull the ladder that Tesla used to get where it is now to prevent others from using it.
“Subsidies for me, not for thee” – Elon’s new motto.
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The US electric bike industry has already seen a regulation-heavy start to 2025. Now, New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s potential new restrictions on fast and exceedingly heavy electric bikes could add to the proposed and enacted legislation we’ve seen lately.
Hochul proposed in her State of the State address yesterday that Class 3 electric bikes weighing over 100 lb (45 kg) be excluded from existing electric bicycle regulations and instead be treated more like mopeds.
That would mean imposing motor vehicle regulations resulting in licensing and registration requirements, as well as disallowing their use in bike lanes.
The governor explained that this new regulation would ideally help increase the safety of bike lanes, according to Streetsblog NYC.
As a reminder, Class 1 and Class 2 e-bikes can reach a top speed of 20 mph (32 km/h) on motor power, with Class 2 e-bikes including a throttle that allows motor use without requiring the pedals to be used. In most states, Class 3 e-bikes can reach higher speeds of up to 28 mph (45 km/h) with pedal assist but not throttle. However, New York State has stricter Class 3 limits that provide for speeds up to just 25 mph (40 km/h).
The proposed new regulations would only target Class 3 e-bikes that exceed the suggested weight limit of 100 lb (45 kg).
Most electric bikes weigh well under 100 lb (45 kg). Common e-bikes seen regularly on US streets and bike lanes weigh between 50-75 lb (23 to 34 kg). However, there are some e-bike models available on the market that can reach or exceed 100 lb (45 kg). We’ve tested a few of them.
Such heavy electric bikes are usually visually similar to mopeds and light electric motorcycles, often featuring large tires, heavy motors, dual suspension, chunky frames, and other components that add significant weight. However, many heavy electric bicycles are limited to 20 mph (32 km/h), and could exceed the arbitrary 100 lb (45 kg) proposed limit while still not falling under this proposed regulation due to their Class 2 designation.
Electrek’s Take
At face value, there’s some logic to this. A 100 lb electric bike has a lot more rolling mass than a 50 lb electric bike, and you can guess which one I’d rather get hit by. Though at the same time, when the rider nearly always weighs more than the vehicle, the weight of the e-bike certainly has a lower relevance to its safety. With a 200 lb (91 kg) rider on both bikes, we’re only talking about a relatively small 20% difference in mass.
And it’s a bit telling that there wasn’t much discussion in the State of the State address about any other road safety issues, certainly not about the several thousand-pound cars that actually kill many New Yorkers every year.
I’m not saying I don’t support reasonable regulations to ensure the safety of everyone, in the bike lanes and outside of them. But let’s get real here. The percentage of electric bikes that are 100+ lb is tiny, likely under 1-2% of all e-bikes on the road. And that’s a tiny slice of an entire pie that is itself a tiny slice of the injury-causing-vehicle pie. So I’m not saying there isn’t any good regulation opportunity out there for e-bikes. But this is all fluff on top of fluff if you think it’s actually about making a meaningful impact on road safety. If they really cared about better protecting cyclists, governments would enforce existing laws to prevent cars from killing them so frequently.
These types of clumsy, heavy-handed regulations are just that – quick and dirty attempts to appear to be working towards a solution, when in fact they are largely meaningless in their ultimate impact on protecting lives.
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