Russia’s indefinite ban on diesel exports threatens to aggravate a global shortage
From February 5, 2023, the European Union will no longer purchase petroleum products such as diesel, gasoline or lubricants from Russia.
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Russia imposed an indefinite ban on the export of diesel and gasoline to most countries, a move that risks disrupting fuel supplies ahead of winter and threatens to exacerbate global shortages.
In a government decree signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the Kremlin said Thursday that it would introduce “temporary” restrictions on diesel exports to stabilize fuel prices on the domestic market.
The ban, which came into immediate effect and applies to all countries apart from four former Soviet states, does not have an end date. The countries exempt from the ban include Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, all of which are members of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union.
Russia is one of the world’s largest suppliers of diesel and a major exporter of crude oil. Market participants are concerned about the potential impact of Russia’s ban, particularly at a time when global diesel inventories are already at low levels. Oil prices jumped as much as $1 a barrel on the news on Thursday, before settling lower for the session.
International benchmark Brent crude futures traded 0.9% higher at $94.13 a barrel on Friday afternoon in London, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.1% to trade at $90.62.
Energy analysts said the vague language used in Russia’s announcement made it difficult to assess exactly how long the ban would remain in place and warned that Moscow could once again be seeking to weaponize fuel supplies ahead of another winter heating season.
A spokesperson for the Kremlin said Friday that the fuel export ban would last for as long as necessary to ensure market stability, Reuters reported.
In the weeks leading up to Thursday’s intervention, analysts said Russian diesel exports had come under pressure due to the weakness of the ruble, domestic refinery maintenance and government-led efforts to increase domestic supply.
“All deals agreed before the regulation took effect are still on, meaning the likelihood of an immediate halt in diesel and gasoline exports is unlikely, most probably it would take 1-2 weeks for the impact to transpire,” Viktor Katona, lead analyst at Kpler, said in a research note published Friday.
“By that point, however, the government might already annul this specific piece of legislation, as abruptly as it was published,” he added.
What impact could the ban have?
Prior to the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year, Russian refineries exported an estimated 2.8 million barrels per day of oil products. That figure has since fallen to around 1 million barrels per day, according to ING, but Moscow still remains a major player in global energy markets.
Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said in a research note published Friday that Russia’s ban on fuel exports was a major development ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, a period which would typically see a seasonal pick-up in demand.
“The middle distillate market was already seeing significant strength ahead of this ban with inventories tight in the US, Europe and Asia as we head into the Northern Hemisphere winter,” Patterson said, citing factors such as OPEC+ production cuts, recovering air travel and Europe’s struggle to replace Russian middle distillates after a ban came into effect in February.
“The loss of around [1 million barrels per day] of Russian diesel in the global market will be felt and only reinforces the supportive view we have held on middle distillate cracks and as a result on refinery margins,” he added. “How much upside really depends on the duration of the ban.”
Oil storage tanks in Tuapse, Russia, March 22, 2020.
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OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia said on Sept. 5 that it would extend its 1 million barrel per day production cut through to year-end, with non-OPEC leader Russia pledging to reduce oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. Both countries have said they will review their voluntary cuts on a monthly basis.
“The purpose of the ban is apparently to address tightness and high prices in domestic Russian markets, where high oil prices combined with a weakened rouble, must be painful for Russian consumers,” Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, said Friday.
“However, there are also echoes with disruptions to Russian gas supplies to Europe that started in 2021. They also began as supposedly temporary disruptions while gas was held back to fill domestic storage — we all know what happened there,” he added.
“It might be a coincidence that this ban has been announced the day after Russia had a tough time at the UN, or it might be a broadening of the policy of using energy as a weapon in reaction to that.”
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GE Vernova has manufactured enough turbines at its Pensacola, Florida, factory to supply over 1.2 gigawatts (GW) of the turbines needed for the $5 billion, 2.4 GW SunZia Wind, a project milestone. The wind farm will be sited in Lincoln, Torrance, and San Miguel counties in New Mexico.
At a ribbon-cutting event for Pensacola’s new customer experience center, GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik noted that since 2023, the company has invested around $70 million in the Pensacola factory.
The Pensacola investments are part of the announcement GE Vernova made in January that it will invest nearly $600 million in its US factories and facilities over the next two years to help meet the surging electricity demands globally. GE Vernova says it’s expecting its investments to create more than 1,500 new US jobs.
Vic Abate, CEO of GE Vernova Wind, said, “Our dedicated employees in Pensacola are working to address increasing energy demands for the US. The workhorse turbines manufactured at this world-class factory are engineered for reliability and scalability, ensuring our customers can meet growing energy demand.”
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Read more: The largest clean energy project in US history closes $11B, starts full construction
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Jeremy Allaire, Co-Founder and CEO, Circle
David A. Grogan | CNBC
Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, has filed for an initial public offering and plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange.
The prospectus, filed with the SEC on Tuesday, lays the groundwork for Circle’s long-anticipated entry into the public markets.
JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup are serving as lead underwriters, and the company is reportedly aiming for a valuation of up to $5 billion. It will trade under ticker symbol CRCL.
It marks Circle’s second attempt at going public. A prior merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) collapsed in late 2022 amid regulatory challenges. Since then, Circle has made strategic moves to position itself closer to the heart of global finance, including the announcement last year that it would relocate its headquarters from Boston to One World Trade Center in New York.
Circle reported $1.68 billion in revenue and reserve income in 2024, up from $1.45 billion in 2023 and $772 million in 2022. The company reported net income last year of about $156 million., down from $268 million a year earlier.
A successful IPO would make Circle one of the most prominent pure-play crypto companies to list on a U.S. exchange. Coinbase went public through a direct listing in 2021 and has a market cap of about $44 billion.
Circle will be trying to hit the public markets at a volatile moment for tech stocks, with the Nasdaq having just wrapped up its steepest quarterly drop since 2022. The tech IPO market has been mostly dry for over three years, though there are signs of life. Online lender Klarna, digital health company Hinge Health and ticketing marketplace StubHub have all filed their prospectuses recently. Late last week, artificial intelligence infrastructure provider CoreWeave held the biggest IPO for a U.S. venture-backed tech company since 2021. But the company scaled back the offering and the stock had a disappointing first two days of trading before rebounding on Tuesday.
Circle is best known as the issuer of USD Coin (USDC), the world’s second-largest stablecoin by market capitalization.
Pegged one-to-one to the U.S. dollar and backed by cash and short-term Treasury securities, USDC has roughly $60 billion in circulation and makes up about 26% of the total market cap for stablecoins, behind Tether‘s 67% dominance. Its market cap has grown 36% this year, however, compared with Tether’s 5% growth.
The company’s push into public markets reflects a broader moment for the crypto industry, which is enjoying political favor under a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration. The stablecoin sector specifically has been ramping up as the industry gains confidence that the crypto market will get its first piece of U.S. legislation passed and implemented this year, focusing on stablecoins. President Donald Trump has said he hopes lawmakers will send stablecoin legislation to his desk before Congress’s August recess.
Stablecoins’ growth could have investment implications for crypto exchanges like Robinhood and Coinbase as they become a bigger part of crypto trading and cross-border transfers. Coinbase also has an agreement with Circle to share 50% of the revenue of its USDC stablecoin, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said on the company’s most recent earnings call that it has a “stretch goal to make USDC the number 1 stablecoin.”
The stablecoin market has grown about 11% so far this year and about 47% in the past year, and has become a “systemically important” part of the crypto market, according to Bernstein. Historically, digital assets in this sector have been used for trading and as collateral in decentralized finance (DeFi), and crypto investors watch them closely for evidence of demand, liquidity and activity in the market.
After its meteoric rise in the global auto industry last year, the Chinese EV giant is off to a hot start in 2025. BYD sold over one million EVs and plug-in hybrids in the first three months of the year. Even more impressive, BYD’s overseas sales doubled to start the year as it expands into new markets. With new EVs arriving, some predict BYD could see even more growth this year.
BYD’s overseas sales are surging as new EVs arrive
BYD sold 377,420 new energy vehicles (NEVs) last month alone. Like most Chinese automakers, BYD reports NEV sales, including plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and fully electric vehicles (EVs).
Of the 371,419 passenger vehicles BYD sold in March, 166,109 were EVs, and the other 205,310 were PHEVs. Combined, BYD’s sales were up 23% compared to last year.
BYD’s Dynasty and Ocean series accounted for 350,615, while its luxury Denza brand sold 12,620, Fang Cheng Bao had 8,051, and its ultra-luxury Yangwang brand sold another 133 models.
Through the first three months of 2025, BYD sold over one million (1,000,804) NEVs. That’s up 60% from the 626,263 sold in Q1 2024. Fully electric models accounted for 416,388 while PHEV sales reached 569,710, an increase of 39% and 76% from last year, respectively.
BYD’s overseas sales reached a new record last month, with 72,723 vehicles sold in markets outside of China. Through March, BYD has sold over 206,000 NEVs overseas, more than double (+110%) the number it sold last year.
BYD has made a name for itself with ultra-low-cost EVs like the Seagull, which starts at under $10,000 in China. In overseas markets, like Mexico, it’s sold as the Dolphin Mini and starts at around 358,800 pesos, or around $20,000.
The world’s largest EV maker is quickly expanding into new segments with pickup trucks, smart SUVs, luxury models, and electric supercars rolling out.
Last week, BYD launched the Yangwang U7, its first ultra-luxury electric sedan. With four electric motors, the U7 packs 1,287 horsepower, good for a 0 to 62 mph (0 to 100 km/h) sprint in just 2.9 seconds. It also has up to 720 km (447 miles) CLTC driving range.
The Porsche Panamera-size EV is loaded with BYD’s top-tier “God’s Eye” A advanced driving assistance system, DiPilot 600, and a host of other premium features. All of that, and it starts at just just 628,000 yuan ($87,700).
In Europe, BYD is aggressively expanding with new vehicles tailored to buyers in the region, like the Sealion 7 midsize SUV and Atto 2. It’s also expected to launch the low-cost Seagull EV in Europe later this year or early 2026 as the “Dolphin Surf.”
According to S&P Global Mobility, BYD’s sales are expected to double in Europe this year to around 186,000. By 2029, that number could reach 400,000 or more.
BYD outsold Honda and Nissan in 2024. As it aims to sell 5.5 million vehicles this year, BYD could be on track to surpass Ford in global sales this year. BYD also aims to sell over 800,000 EVs overseas in 2025, double the number it sold last year.
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