Adam Boulton: Sunak will not go quietly – and will do what it takes to shift the dial ahead of election

Published

2 years ago

September 24, 2023

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The last Westminster parliament to run for a full five-year term ended in 2015.

After that we had general elections every two years, in 2017 and 2019, followed by the election now expected by January 2025 at the latest, when this full term will expire.

Not that there has been political stability since 2019. Rather than consult the voters, the Conservative party have changed prime ministers twice in that time running through Johnson and Truss to Sunak.

In the past few days, it has felt as if the tectonic plates under Number 10 Downing Street were shifting again. There have been manifest signs of political panic and – obeying the old mantra of “never let a good crisis go to waste” – political opportunism as well.

Observing tell-tale signs that the government was gearing up under duress, I wondered if, just possibly, Rishi Sunak would go the way of Theresa May and Boris Johnson and deploy the prime minister’s ability to bring about a general election as a tactical weapon in campaigning.

Elon Musk has not yet managed to kill Twitter as a channel of constructive conversation, so I Xed a speculative “are we about to be plunged into a snap general election again?”

No, not this October, it turned out. The prime minister stuck to the planned content in the speech which media speculation had bounced him into delivering prematurely.

But what we saw from the prime minister should put us on alert. The electorate should stand by to be called to the polls at any moment.

Sunak has shifted into ruthless campaign mode and he will call an election if and when he sees any advantage in doing so.

His U-turn on net zero measures shows that he has made his choice on how he will fight it.

In the past two centuries no British party has won five elections in a row, as the Conservatives are seeking to do.

Sunak’s strategy is to try to present himself as something different, rather than Sir Keir Starmer as the “change candidate” from the past.

Amid the cost of living crisis, high mortgages and inflation, chaos in the NHS and disruption in schools, Sunak knows there would be little point in trying to run on the Conservative’s record in government.

He claims that he has restored “stability and confidence” in his first year as prime minister, now his new slogan “long-term decisions for a brighter future” attempts to turn the page on all the decisions the Tories have taken over their past 14 years in power.

Symbolically Sunak has torched the accelerated plans to phase out internal combustion cars and gas boilers, which underwrote his predecessor Boris Johnson’s boast that the UK was a “world leader” on net zero. He hopes that this drives a wedge between him and Starmer.

Setting his heffalump trap for Labour, the Conservative leader says it is for people who disagree with him to explain why they want families to pay an extra £5,000, £10,000 or £15,000.

Piling extra challenges for Starmer to overcome, he claimed to have scrapped compulsory extreme measures for a meat tax, seven recycling bins per household, and car sharing.

He and ministers have struggled to identify any examples of politicians advocating such measures, but that won’t stop Tory activists linking them to Labour on the campaigning trail.

Already at PMQs Sunak is happy to smear Starmer with allegations which are unfounded or which Starmer has ruled out on the record.

Sunak’s campaign strategy is reminiscent of Johnson’s “cakeism”. He wants to hold together the coalition of voters which delivered electoral victory in 2019.

So while reducing the, allegedly costly, green measures on net zero or sewage versus housebuilding, he simultaneously claims that he is sticking to the UKs environmental ambitions and commitments.

It could work. Nobody likes paying more when times are hard.

Sunak’s claims that he is still “passionately committed” to net zero and that the UK is still on course, provide an alibi for those disinclined to do anything more.

Those queuing up to attack Sunak’s policy shift include the United Nations, Al Gore, One Nation Conservatives and the mainstream media, precisely the supposedly “elitist” coalition which alienated Leave voters in the Brexit referendum and against Labour in old Red Wall constituencies.

Although irrelevant to global warming, the Labour Mayor of London’s imposition of ULEZ charges on polluting vehicles certainly helped the Conservatives to hang onto Johnson’s outer London constituency at a by-election. The 7.4% swing against the Tories was much less than in national opinion polls.

If the Conservatives pull off another “hold” in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election on 19 October, it will be taken as vindication of the new “common sense” strategy.

To stay in power, Sunak will need the votes of traditional Conservatives – older, relatively affluent and in the South.

The Conservatives are also generally doing poorly with younger demographics of working age below 50. The red scare of Corbyn pushed enough of them in the Conservatives’ direction.

It will be harder to paint Starmer as a similar threat, but that is unlikely to stop his opponents trying.

That is the Conservative’s best hope of holding together a winning electoral coalition. Initially Sunak’s green moves have fallen flat with Conservative environmentalists from Zac Goldsmith to John Gummer to the Climate Change Committee.

Big businesses are also openly dismayed, especially by the instability of chopping and changing legislated targets and guidelines.

Replies to my snap election ‘X’ were mostly either “bring it on” or “they wouldn’t dare”.

One MP was not so sure: “I point out that I was elected in 2015 when it was the law, we couldn’t have an election for five years… and we had two in three years”.

The prime minister will go for an election if he sees a burst of sunshine breaking through the electoral clouds hanging over the Conservatives.

He could even get a boost just by calling one; polls show that the public is impatient, over half of those questioned want an election by June next year – around 25% want one this year.

For his first year in office the prime minister has been bombarded by events.

He may have been pushed into it but this week was the first time he found the breathing space to launch an initiative.

More long-term ideas from the “real Rishi” are promised in the coming weeks. It is likely that they too will play to the popularist right of the party.

Sunak doesn’t have to appeal to everybody. In their four general election victories the shares of the vote which put the Tories in power were 36.1%, 36.8%, 42.3% and 34.65%.

Electoral Calculus current poll of polls puts Sunak well short of that: Conservatives 27.5% Labour 44.3%. The prime minister will not go quietly.

The Sunak who has shown himself this week will not scruple to do what it takes to shift the dial – short term as well as long term and if he sees the glint of a chance, he’ll take it.

Politics

DeFi security and compliance must be improved to attract institutions

Published

8 hours ago

April 9, 2025

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DeFi security and compliance must be improved to attract institutions

Opinion by: Sergej Kunz, co-founder of 1inch

Institutional players have been closely watching decentralized finance’s growth. Creating secure and compliant DeFi platforms is the only solution to build trust and attract more institutions.

Clear waters attract big ships

Over the past four years, institutional DeFi adoption has gone from 10% of hedge funds to 47%, and is projected to rise to 65% in 2025. Goldman Sachs is reaching their arms to DeFi for bond issuance and yield farming.

Early adopters are already positioning themselves in onchain finance, including Visa, which has processed over $1 billion in crypto transactions since 2021 and is now testing cross-border payments. In the next two years, institutional adoption will speed up. A compliant regulatory framework that maintains DeFi’s core benefits is necessary for institutional adoption to engage confidently.

DeFi’s institutional trilemma

It is no secret that many DeFi security exploits happen every year. The recent Bybit hack reported a $1.4 billion loss. The breach occurred through a transfer process that was vulnerable to attack. Attacks like these raise concerns about multisignature wallets and blind signing. This happens when users approve transactions without full details, rendering blind signing a significant risk. This case calls for stronger security measures and improvements in user experience.

The threats of theft due to vulnerabilities in smart contracts or mistakes by validators make institutional investors hesitate when depositing large amounts of money into institutional staking pools. Institutions are also at risk of noncompliance due to a lack of clear regulatory frameworks, creating hesitation to enter the space.

The user interface in DeFi is often designed for users with technical expertise. Institutional investors require user-friendly experiences that make DeFi staking possible without relying on third-party intermediaries.

Build it right, and they will come

Institutional interest in bringing traditional assets onchain is enormous, with the tokenized asset market estimated to reach $16 trillion by 2030. To confidently participate in DeFi, institutions need verifiable counterparties that are compliant with regulatory requirements. The entry of traditional institutional players into DeFi has led some privacy advocates to point out that it can counter the essence of decentralization, which forms the bedrock of the ecosystem.

Recent: Securitize to bring BUIDL tokenized fund to DeFi with RedStone price feeds

Institutions must be able to trust DeFi platforms to maintain compliance standards while providing a safe and seamless user interface. A balanced approach is key. DeFi’s permissionless nature can be achieved while maintaining compliance through identity profiles, allowing secure transactions. Similarly, transaction screening tools facilitate real-time monitoring and risk assessment.

Blockchain analytics tools help institutions to maintain compliance with Anti-Money Laundering regulations and prevent interaction with blacklisted wallets. Integrating these tools can help detect and prevent illicit activity, making DeFi safer for institutional engagement.

Intent-based architecture can improve security

The relationship between intent-based architecture and security is evident; the very design is built to reduce risks, creating a more reliable user experience. This protects the user against MEV exploits, a common issue of automated bots scanning for large profitable trades that can be exploited. Intent-based architecture also helps implement compliance frameworks. For instance, restricting order submissions to clean wallets and allowing resolvers to settle only the acceptable orders.

It’s well understood that in traditional DeFi transactions, users rely often on intermediaries like liquidity providers to execute trades or manage funds. This leads to counterparty risk, unauthorized execution and settlement failure. The intent-based architecture supports a trustless settlement that ensures users commit only when all conditions are met, reducing risk and removing blind trust from the picture.

DeFi platforms must simplify interactions and UX for institutional investors. This system bridges the gap between. Through executing offchain while ensuring security, the intent-based architecture makes DeFi safer and more efficient. However, one of the challenges to this includes integrating offchain order matching while maintaining onchain transparency.

Late adopters of DeFi will struggle to keep up

For the early adopters of DeFi, there is a competitive advantage in liquidity access and yield advantages, whereas late adopters will face more regulatory scrutiny and entry barriers. By 2026, the institutional players that have failed to adopt DeFi may struggle to keep up. This is seen in the examples of early adopters like JPMorgan and Citi’s early tokenization projects. TradFi leaders like them are already gearing up for onchain finance.

The way forward

Regulatory bodies, supervisory agencies and policy leaders must provide clear, standardized guidelines to facilitate broader institutional participation. Uniform protocols underpinning wider institutional involvement are underway. DeFi platforms must be prepared beforehand to provide all the necessary pillars of compliance and security to institutional players who want to embrace mainstream adoption. Executing this shall require combined efforts from regulators, developers and institutions.

Opinion by: Sergej Kunz, co-founder of 1inch.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Politics

Kalshi accepts Bitcoin deposits in bid to woo crypto-native users

Published

8 hours ago

April 9, 2025

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Kalshi accepts Bitcoin deposits in bid to woo crypto-native users

Prediction marketplace Kalshi has started taking Bitcoin (BTC) deposits in a bid to onboard more crypto-native users.

The company that lets users bet on events ranging from election outcomes to Rotten Tomatoes film ratings has seen a strong uptake among crypto traders, Kalshi told Cointelegraph on April 9. For instance, event contracts for betting on Bitcoin’s hour-by-hour price changes have seen $143 million in trading volume to date, a spokesperson said.

Kalshi is a derivatives exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). As of April 9, it listed some 50 crypto-related event contracts, including markets for betting on coins’ 2025 highs and lows, as well as on headlines such as US President Donald Trump’s proposed National Bitcoin Reserve.

The platform started accepting crypto payments in October when it enabled stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) deposits.

Kalshi relies on ZeroHash — a crypto payments infrastructure provider — for off-ramping BTC and USDC and converting the deposits to US dollars. The exchange accepts BTC deposits only from the Bitcoin network.

More accurate than polls

Launched in 2021, Kalshi rose to prominence ahead of the US’s November elections.

It became a top venue for trading on 2024 political events after winning a lawsuit against the CFTC, which tried to block Kalshi from listing contracts tied to elections.

The regulator argued that political prediction markets threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls.

For instance, prediction markets, including Kalshi, accurately predicted Trump’s presidential election win even as polls indicated a tossup.

“Event contract markets are a valuable public good for which there is no evidence of significant manipulation or widespread use for any nefarious purposes that the Commission alleges,” Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, said in an August comment letter filed with the CFTC.

As of April 9, Kalshi traders peg the odds of the US entering a recession at 68%, according to its website.

In March, Kalshi partnered with Robinhood to bring prediction markets to the popular online brokerage platform. Robinhood’s stock rose some 8% on the news.

Kalshi competes with Polymarket, a Web3-based prediction platform. Polymarket processed more than $3 billion in trading volumes tied to the US presidential election despite being off-limits for US traders.

Magazine: Bitcoin heading to $70K soon? Crypto baller funds SpaceX flight: Hodler’s Digest, March 30 – April 5

Politics

No crypto project has registered with the SEC and ‘lived to tell the tale’ — House committee hearing

Published

9 hours ago

April 9, 2025

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No crypto project has registered with the SEC and ‘lived to tell the tale’ — House committee hearing

United States securities laws are not flexible enough to account for digital assets, as evidenced by the parade of crypto-native companies that have tried and failed to get into the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) good graces, Rodrigo Seira, special counsel to Cooley LLP, told a House Committee hearing on April 9.

The hearing, titled American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets Aligning the U.S. Securities Laws for the Digital Age, featured Seira, WilmerHale partner Tiffany J. Smith, Polygon chief legal officer Jake Werrett and Alexandra Thorn, a senior director at the Center for American Progress.

“It is clear that the current securities regulatory framework is not a viable option to regulate crypto. It fails to achieve its stated policy goals,” Seira said in his opening remarks. “[T]he idea that crypto projects can come in and register with the SEC is demonstrably false.”

Seira acknowledged that crypto promoters who raise capital for a new enterprise should be subject to federal securities laws.

“In practice, however, virtually no crypto projects have successfully registered their tokens under federal securities laws and lived to tell the tale,” he said, adding:

Projects that tried to comply with [the] SEC’s current regulatory requirements expended significant resources and effort only to fail or survive in a state of regulatory uncertainty. Moreover, registration is not a simple one-time process. Registering a token in the same manner as a stock triggers an obligation to operate as a publicly reporting company […].”

Righting the ship

In introducing the witnesses, Representative Bryan Steil, who heads the Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence, acknowledged regulatory roadblocks, which he said were put in place by the previous administration.

Under President Donald Trump, lawmakers are attempting to right the ship by passing sensible legislation, said Steil.

One of the first steps occurred last week when the House Financial Services Committee advanced the STABLE Act, which is designed to regulate payment stablecoins tied to the US dollar and other fiat currencies.

A month earlier, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the GENIUS Act, which aims to regulate stablecoin issuers by establishing reserve requirements and requiring full compliance with Anti-Money Laundering laws.

The next step is “advancing the second half of this agenda: comprehensive digital asset market structure legislation,” said Steil.

Representative Ro Khanna told a digital asset conference last month that a market structure bill will cross the finish line this year.

The purpose of such legislation is to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, including their legal categories and the enforcement jurisdiction of agencies such as the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Magazine: Unstablecoins: Depegging, bank runs and other risks loom