The last Westminster parliament to run for a full five-year term ended in 2015.
After that we had general elections every two years, in 2017 and 2019, followed by the election now expected by January 2025 at the latest, when this full term will expire.
Not that there has been political stability since 2019. Rather than consult the voters, the Conservative party have changed prime ministers twice in that time running through Johnson and Truss to Sunak.
In the past few days, it has felt as if the tectonic plates under Number 10 Downing Street were shifting again. There have been manifest signs of political panic and – obeying the old mantra of “never let a good crisis go to waste” – political opportunism as well.
Observing tell-tale signs that the government was gearing up under duress, I wondered if, just possibly, Rishi Sunak would go the way of Theresa May and Boris Johnson and deploy the prime minister’s ability to bring about a general election as a tactical weapon in campaigning.
Elon Musk has not yet managed to kill Twitter as a channel of constructive conversation, so I Xed a speculative “are we about to be plunged into a snap general election again?”
No, not this October, it turned out. The prime minister stuck to the planned content in the speech which media speculation had bounced him into delivering prematurely.
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Image: Keir Starmer leads in the polls
But what we saw from the prime minister should put us on alert. The electorate should stand by to be called to the polls at any moment.
Sunak has shifted into ruthless campaign mode and he will call an election if and when he sees any advantage in doing so.
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His U-turn on net zero measures shows that he has made his choice on how he will fight it.
In the past two centuries no British party has won five elections in a row, as the Conservatives are seeking to do.
Sunak’s strategy is to try to present himself as something different, rather than Sir Keir Starmer as the “change candidate” from the past.
Amid the cost of living crisis, high mortgages and inflation, chaos in the NHS and disruption in schools, Sunak knows there would be little point in trying to run on the Conservative’s record in government.
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He claims that he has restored “stability and confidence” in his first year as prime minister, now his new slogan “long-term decisions for a brighter future” attempts to turn the page on all the decisions the Tories have taken over their past 14 years in power.
Symbolically Sunak has torched the accelerated plans to phase out internal combustion cars and gas boilers, which underwrote his predecessor Boris Johnson’s boast that the UK was a “world leader” on net zero. He hopes that this drives a wedge between him and Starmer.
Setting his heffalump trap for Labour,the Conservative leader says it is for people who disagree with him to explain why they want families to pay an extra £5,000, £10,000 or £15,000.
Piling extra challenges for Starmer to overcome, he claimed to have scrapped compulsory extreme measures for a meat tax, seven recycling bins per household, and car sharing.
He and ministers have struggled to identify any examples of politicians advocating such measures, but that won’t stop Tory activists linking them to Labour on the campaigning trail.
Already at PMQs Sunak is happy to smear Starmer with allegations which are unfounded or which Starmer has ruled out on the record.
So while reducing the, allegedly costly, green measures on net zero or sewage versus housebuilding, he simultaneously claims that he is sticking to the UKs environmental ambitions and commitments.
It could work. Nobody likes paying more when times are hard.
Sunak’s claims that he is still “passionately committed” to net zero and that the UK is still on course, provide an alibi for those disinclined to do anything more.
Those queuing up to attack Sunak’s policy shift include the United Nations, Al Gore, One Nation Conservatives and the mainstream media, precisely the supposedly “elitist” coalition which alienated Leave voters in the Brexit referendum and against Labour in old Red Wall constituencies.
Image: The expansion of the ULEZ has been a contentious issue
Although irrelevant to global warming, the Labour Mayor of London’s imposition of ULEZ charges on polluting vehicles certainly helped the Conservatives to hang onto Johnson’s outer London constituency at a by-election. The 7.4% swing against the Tories was much less than in national opinion polls.
If the Conservatives pull off another “hold” in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election on 19 October, it will be taken as vindication of the new “common sense” strategy.
To stay in power, Sunak will need the votes of traditional Conservatives – older, relatively affluent and in the South.
The Conservatives are also generally doing poorly with younger demographics of working age below 50. The red scare of Corbyn pushed enough of them in the Conservatives’ direction.
It will be harder to paint Starmer as a similar threat, but that is unlikely to stop his opponents trying.
That is the Conservative’s best hope of holding together a winning electoral coalition. Initially Sunak’s green moves have fallen flat with Conservative environmentalists from Zac Goldsmith to John Gummer to the Climate Change Committee.
Big businesses are also openly dismayed, especially by the instability of chopping and changing legislated targets and guidelines.
Replies to my snap election ‘X’ were mostly either “bring it on” or “they wouldn’t dare”.
One MP was not so sure: “I point out that I was elected in 2015 when it was the law, we couldn’t have an election for five years… and we had two in three years”.
The prime minister will go for an election if he sees a burst of sunshine breaking through the electoral clouds hanging over the Conservatives.
He could even get a boost just by calling one; polls show that the public is impatient, over half of those questioned want an election by June next year – around 25% want one this year.
For his first year in office the prime minister has been bombarded by events.
He may have been pushed into it but this week was the first time he found the breathing space to launch an initiative.
More long-term ideas from the “real Rishi” are promised in the coming weeks. It is likely that they too will play to the popularist right of the party.
Sunak doesn’t have to appeal to everybody. In their four general election victories the shares of the vote which put the Tories in power were 36.1%, 36.8%, 42.3% and 34.65%.
Electoral Calculus current poll of polls puts Sunak well short of that: Conservatives 27.5% Labour 44.3%. The prime minister will not go quietly.
The Sunak who has shown himself this week will not scruple to do what it takes to shift the dial – short term as well as long term and if he sees the glint of a chance, he’ll take it.
The government has vowed to push for a “major new crackdown” on people smuggling gangs with a £100m cash boost for border security.
The investment will support the pilot of the new “one in, one out” returns agreement between the UK and France, and other efforts to crack down on small boat crossings.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said this new funding will “strengthen” the government’s “serious and comprehensive plan” to dismantle the business model of criminal gangs smuggling migrants across the Channel.
But the Conservatives have claimed the cash injection will make “no real difference”, with shadow home secretary Chris Philp branding the move a Labour “gimmick” and a “desperate grab for headlines”.
The funding will pay for up to 300 new National Crime Agency (NCA) officials, “state-of-the art” detection technology and new equipment to “smash the networks putting lives at risk in the Channel”, ministers say.
It will also allow the Border Security Command, the NCA, the police and other law enforcement agency partners to “strengthen investigations targeting smuggling kingpins and disrupt their operations across Europe, the Middle East, Africa and beyond”.
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July: 25,000 migrants have crossed Channel
The new investment comes as official figures show more than 25,000 people have arrived on small boats so far in 2025 – a record for this point in the year.
Ms Cooper said: “In the last 12 months, we have set the foundations for this new and much stronger law enforcement approach – establishing the new Border Security Command, strengthening the National Crime Agency and UK police operations, increasing Immigration Enforcement, introducing new counter terror style powers in our Border Security Bill, and establishing cooperation agreements with Europol and other countries.
“Now this additional funding will strengthen every aspect of our plan, and will turbo-charge the ability of our law enforcement agencies to track the gangs and bring them down, working with our partners overseas, and using state-of-the-art technology and equipment.
“Alongside our new agreements with France, this will help us drive forward our Plan for Change commitments to protect the UK’s border security and restore order to our immigration system.”
The £100m investment will also support new powers to be introduced when the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill becomes law, the Home Office said.
This includes the introduction of a UK-wide offence to criminalise the creation and publication of online material that promotes a breach of immigration law, such as the advertisement of small boat crossings on social media.
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July: Hundreds gather for protest outside ‘migrant’ hotel
Research suggests about 80% of migrants arriving to the UK by small boat used internet platforms during their journey – including to contact agents linked to smuggling gangs.
While it is already illegal to assist illegal immigration, ministers hope the creation of a new offence will give police more powers and disrupt business models.
Mr Philp accused the Labour government of having “no serious plan, just excuses, while ruthless criminal gangs flood our borders with illegal immigrants”.
He said: “The British public deserves real action, not empty slogans and tinkering at the edges.”
Efforts to bring Gazan children to the UK for urgent medical treatment are set to be accelerated under new government plans.
Under the scheme, reportedly set to be announced within weeks, more injured and sick children will be treated by specialists in the NHS “where that is the best option for their care”.
It has been suggested that up to 300 children could arrive in the UK from Gaza.
A parent or guardian will accompany each child, as well as siblings if necessary, and the Home Office will carry out biometric and security checks before travel, the Sunday Times has reported.
It is understood this will happen “in parallel” with an initiative by Project Pure Hope, a group set up to bring sick and injured Gazan children to the UK privately for treatment.
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15:52
A 15-year-old boy from Gaza brought to the UK for urgent medical treatment this week has told Sky News of his joy and relief. Majd lost part of his face as well as his entire jaw and all his teeth in a tank shell explosion.
A government spokesperson said: “We are taking forward plans to evacuate more children from Gaza who require urgent medical care, including bringing them to the UK for specialist treatment where that is the best option for their care.”
More than 50,000 children are estimated to have been killed or injured in Gaza since October 2023, according to Unicef.
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So far, three children have arrived in the UK for medical treatment with the help of the charity Project Pure Hope.
Around 5,000 have been evacuated in total, with the majority going to Egypt and Gulf countries.
Sir Keir Starmer said last week that the UK was “urgently accelerating” efforts to bring children over for treatment.
The government has also pledged another £1m to help the World Health Organisation in Egypt provide medical support to evacuated Gazans.
The prime minister told the Mirror: “I know the British people are sickened by what is happening.
“The images of starvation and desperation in Gaza are utterly horrifying. We are urgently accelerating efforts to evacuate children from Gaza who need critical medical assistance – bringing more Palestinian children to the UK for specialist medical treatment.”
Around 100 MPs have signed a letter urging the government to fast track the scheme.
Labour MP Stella Creasy, who co-ordinated the letter, said: “The commitment we all share to help these children remains absolute and urgent – with every day, more are harmed or die, making the need to overcome any barriers to increasing the support we give them imperative.
“We stand ready to support whatever it takes to make this happen and ask for your urgent response.”
Meanwhile, Project Pure Hope has been campaigning for months to create a scheme which would allow for the evacuation of 30 to 50 children.
The charity has raised the money to bring the children and their families to the UK, and cover their medical costs, privately.
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