Adam Boulton: Sunak will not go quietly – and will do what it takes to shift the dial ahead of election

Published

2 years ago

September 24, 2023

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The last Westminster parliament to run for a full five-year term ended in 2015.

After that we had general elections every two years, in 2017 and 2019, followed by the election now expected by January 2025 at the latest, when this full term will expire.

Not that there has been political stability since 2019. Rather than consult the voters, the Conservative party have changed prime ministers twice in that time running through Johnson and Truss to Sunak.

In the past few days, it has felt as if the tectonic plates under Number 10 Downing Street were shifting again. There have been manifest signs of political panic and – obeying the old mantra of “never let a good crisis go to waste” – political opportunism as well.

Observing tell-tale signs that the government was gearing up under duress, I wondered if, just possibly, Rishi Sunak would go the way of Theresa May and Boris Johnson and deploy the prime minister’s ability to bring about a general election as a tactical weapon in campaigning.

Elon Musk has not yet managed to kill Twitter as a channel of constructive conversation, so I Xed a speculative “are we about to be plunged into a snap general election again?”

No, not this October, it turned out. The prime minister stuck to the planned content in the speech which media speculation had bounced him into delivering prematurely.

But what we saw from the prime minister should put us on alert. The electorate should stand by to be called to the polls at any moment.

Sunak has shifted into ruthless campaign mode and he will call an election if and when he sees any advantage in doing so.

His U-turn on net zero measures shows that he has made his choice on how he will fight it.

In the past two centuries no British party has won five elections in a row, as the Conservatives are seeking to do.

Sunak’s strategy is to try to present himself as something different, rather than Sir Keir Starmer as the “change candidate” from the past.

Amid the cost of living crisis, high mortgages and inflation, chaos in the NHS and disruption in schools, Sunak knows there would be little point in trying to run on the Conservative’s record in government.

He claims that he has restored “stability and confidence” in his first year as prime minister, now his new slogan “long-term decisions for a brighter future” attempts to turn the page on all the decisions the Tories have taken over their past 14 years in power.

Symbolically Sunak has torched the accelerated plans to phase out internal combustion cars and gas boilers, which underwrote his predecessor Boris Johnson’s boast that the UK was a “world leader” on net zero. He hopes that this drives a wedge between him and Starmer.

Setting his heffalump trap for Labour, the Conservative leader says it is for people who disagree with him to explain why they want families to pay an extra £5,000, £10,000 or £15,000.

Piling extra challenges for Starmer to overcome, he claimed to have scrapped compulsory extreme measures for a meat tax, seven recycling bins per household, and car sharing.

He and ministers have struggled to identify any examples of politicians advocating such measures, but that won’t stop Tory activists linking them to Labour on the campaigning trail.

Already at PMQs Sunak is happy to smear Starmer with allegations which are unfounded or which Starmer has ruled out on the record.

Sunak’s campaign strategy is reminiscent of Johnson’s “cakeism”. He wants to hold together the coalition of voters which delivered electoral victory in 2019.

So while reducing the, allegedly costly, green measures on net zero or sewage versus housebuilding, he simultaneously claims that he is sticking to the UKs environmental ambitions and commitments.

It could work. Nobody likes paying more when times are hard.

Sunak’s claims that he is still “passionately committed” to net zero and that the UK is still on course, provide an alibi for those disinclined to do anything more.

Those queuing up to attack Sunak’s policy shift include the United Nations, Al Gore, One Nation Conservatives and the mainstream media, precisely the supposedly “elitist” coalition which alienated Leave voters in the Brexit referendum and against Labour in old Red Wall constituencies.

Although irrelevant to global warming, the Labour Mayor of London’s imposition of ULEZ charges on polluting vehicles certainly helped the Conservatives to hang onto Johnson’s outer London constituency at a by-election. The 7.4% swing against the Tories was much less than in national opinion polls.

If the Conservatives pull off another “hold” in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election on 19 October, it will be taken as vindication of the new “common sense” strategy.

To stay in power, Sunak will need the votes of traditional Conservatives – older, relatively affluent and in the South.

The Conservatives are also generally doing poorly with younger demographics of working age below 50. The red scare of Corbyn pushed enough of them in the Conservatives’ direction.

It will be harder to paint Starmer as a similar threat, but that is unlikely to stop his opponents trying.

That is the Conservative’s best hope of holding together a winning electoral coalition. Initially Sunak’s green moves have fallen flat with Conservative environmentalists from Zac Goldsmith to John Gummer to the Climate Change Committee.

Big businesses are also openly dismayed, especially by the instability of chopping and changing legislated targets and guidelines.

Replies to my snap election ‘X’ were mostly either “bring it on” or “they wouldn’t dare”.

One MP was not so sure: “I point out that I was elected in 2015 when it was the law, we couldn’t have an election for five years… and we had two in three years”.

The prime minister will go for an election if he sees a burst of sunshine breaking through the electoral clouds hanging over the Conservatives.

He could even get a boost just by calling one; polls show that the public is impatient, over half of those questioned want an election by June next year – around 25% want one this year.

For his first year in office the prime minister has been bombarded by events.

He may have been pushed into it but this week was the first time he found the breathing space to launch an initiative.

More long-term ideas from the “real Rishi” are promised in the coming weeks. It is likely that they too will play to the popularist right of the party.

Sunak doesn’t have to appeal to everybody. In their four general election victories the shares of the vote which put the Tories in power were 36.1%, 36.8%, 42.3% and 34.65%.

Electoral Calculus current poll of polls puts Sunak well short of that: Conservatives 27.5% Labour 44.3%. The prime minister will not go quietly.

The Sunak who has shown himself this week will not scruple to do what it takes to shift the dial – short term as well as long term and if he sees the glint of a chance, he’ll take it.

Politics

SEC’s Crenshaw slams Ripple settlement, warns of ‘regulatory vacuum’

Published

5 hours ago

May 9, 2025

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SEC’s Crenshaw slams Ripple settlement, warns of ‘regulatory vacuum’

A crypto-skeptical commissioner at the US Securities and Exchange Commission has blasted her agency over its settlement letter that could finally end the Ripple legal saga.

The SEC and Ripple filed a joint settlement letter in a New York court asking for the August 2024 injunction against Ripple to be dissolved and $75 million of the $125 million in civil penalties held in escrow to be returned to the crypto firm, according to a May 8 statement from the SEC.

SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw blasted the pending deal in a May 8 statement, saying it would damage the regulators’ ability to keep crypto firms in line and undermine the court’s ruling.

“This settlement, alongside the programmatic disassembly of the SEC’s crypto enforcement program, does a tremendous disservice to the investing public and undermines the court’s role in interpreting our securities laws,” she said.

“In the meantime, the settlement joins a line of dismissals that collectively erode the credibility of our lawyers in court who are being asked to take legal positions today contrary to the ones taken just months ago.”

Under the Trump administration, the SEC has slowly been walking back its hardline stance toward crypto firms forged under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s reign, dismissing a growing number of enforcement actions against crypto firms.

At the same time, Crenshaw argues that if Judge Torres accepts the settlement, it would erase “the investor protections we already won” and leave a “regulatory vacuum,” until the crypto task force hammers out a regulatory framework.

“The settlement is not in the best interests of the investors and markets that our agency is tasked with serving and protecting. It creates more questions than answers.”

In August last year, a Judge ordered Ripple to pay $125 million in penalties after ruling the firm’s XRP (XRP) token was covered by securities laws when sold to institutional investors.

What’s next for the Ripple case? It’s not over yet

While the SEC and Ripple have agreed to a settlement, it’s still not a done deal, according to ex-federal prosecutor James Filan, because there are several steps before the long-running legal saga can conclude.

For a start, Judge Torres needs to provide an indicative ruling if she agrees to the settlement letter, Filan said in a May 8 analysis on X.

If Torres provides an indicative ruling, the SEC and Ripple will ask the Second Circuit Court of Appeals for a limited remand back to Judge Torres, which, if granted, will result in another motion being filed for the agreed settlement, according to Filan.

“After the injunction is dissolved and the funds distributed, the SEC and Ripple will ask the Court of Appeals to dismiss the SEC’s appeal and Ripple’s cross-appeal. Then it will be over,” he said.

The SEC initially launched legal action against Ripple Labs in December 2020, accusing the firm of illegally selling its token as an unregistered security.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Politics

Former FTX exec’s wife says gov’t ‘induced a guilty plea’

Published

9 hours ago

May 8, 2025

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<div>Former FTX exec's wife says gov't 'induced a guilty plea'</div>

Michelle Bond, the wife of former FTX Digital Markets co-CEO Ryan Salame, who faces federal campaign finance charges, is pushing for dismissal on the grounds that US prosecutors deceived her husband in a plea deal.

In a May 7 filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, Bond’s lawyers reiterated some of the claims Salame made in opposing his plea deal with the government, which ultimately still led to him serving time in prison. She claimed that prosecutors obtained a deal with Salame through “stealth and deception” by allegedly agreeing they would not file charges against Bond.

“Mr. Salame and Ms. Bond’s attorneys were advised that the agreement to cease investigating Ms. Bond could not be placed within the four corners of the Salame plea or other written agreement, but the government still offered it as an inducement to induce the plea,” said the filing, adding:

“At a minimum, enough exists to demonstrate a legitimate factual dispute as to the nature and scope of the promises made to Mr. Salame and Ms. Bond to induce his guilty plea such that a hearing with discovery is required.”

Law, Congress, New York, Court, Crimes, FTX — *May 7 filing requesting a dismissal of one charge for Michelle Bond. Source:* *Courtlistener*

Prosecutors charged Bond in August 2024 with conspiracy to cause unlawful campaign contributions, causing and accepting excessive campaign contributions, causing and receiving an unlawful corporate contribution, and causing and receiving a conduit contribution related to her failed run for a seat in the US House of Representatives in 2022. Salame, who pleaded guilty to two felony charges in 2023 and was later sentenced to more than seven years in prison, attempted to void his deal with prosecutors, claiming it had included an agreement not to charge Bond.

The May 7 filing requested the court suppress any statements Bond made after the alleged “inducement” in Salame’s deal. The former FTX executive made similar claims in court filings attempting to nullify his plea, but later dropped the matter and reported to prison in October 2024.

Bond hinted that her running as a Republican — similar politically-motivated claims made by Salame — had contributed to the campaign finance charges. The indictment alleged she filed false reports to the Federal Election Commission related to funds used for her campaign.

The FTX saga hasn’t ended… yet

Since the collapse of FTX in 2022, nearly all former executives indicted on charges related to the misuse of the crypto exchange’s funds have had their day in court.

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, who pleaded not guilty, went through a trial in 2023 and was later sentenced to 25 years in prison. His lawyers filed a notice of appeal, and reports suggested he may be looking for a pardon from US President Donald Trump.

Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research, was sentenced to two years in prison in September 2024 as part of a plea deal and began serving her time in November. Nishad Singh and Gary Wang, former FTX executives who also pleaded guilty to charges, were each sentenced to time served in 2024.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple and industry with no crypto legal precedent set

Politics

Mashinsky’s 12-year sentence sets tone of enforcement in Trump era

Published

10 hours ago

May 8, 2025

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Mashinsky’s 12-year sentence sets tone of enforcement in Trump era

The US federal court for the Southern District of New York has sentenced former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky to 12 years in prison for fraud.

Mashinsky’s legal team sought a light sentence. They highlighted his spotless record before the Celsius incident, along with his military service and willingness to plead guilty. But US prosecutors were less inclined to leniency, suggesting on April 28 that the judge deliver a 20-year sentence for his actions.

Betting markets predicted a light sentence ahead of the May 8 hearing. Polymarket showed only 11% odds for a 20-year sentence or higher.

President Donald Trump began his second term with high-profile pardons of crypto executives, signalling that his administration may bring leniency to crypto fraudsters like Mashinsky. His sentencing today, however, suggests otherwise.

Trump’s DOJ wants Mashinsky sentence to serve as a warning

Crypto-related crimes have their limits, according to the current US Department of Justice. Jay Clayton, the Trump-nomianted US attorney leading the prosecution, said on April 28 that the suggested 20-year sentence serves as a “critical warning to other entrepreneurs, executives, and promoters in the cryptocurrency industry and in any future industry as-yet unconceived: that fraud will be punished severely, regardless of the technology or industry in which it occurs.”

Clayton argued that a strong sentence was warranted as the fraud targeted unsophisticated retail investors rather than institutional parties with protections and expertise. Mashinsky “preyed on ordinary individuals who relied on his promises of safety and financial security.”

The Mashinsky defense team drew attention to Mashinsky’s character, highlighting his long career in business, devotion to family and service with the Israel Defense Forces.

His lawyers also drew distinctions between Mashinsky’s case and that of Bankman-Fried, claiming, “There are no allegations — let alone any proof — that Alex misappropriated, embezzled or stole any customer assets or any Celsius money.”

On May 5, Mashinsky’s legal team argued that these mitigating factors should warrant a sentence of no more than 366 days.

“The government’s venom-laced submission recasts this case as one involving a predator with an intent to target victims, harm them, and steal their money,” his team said.

Mashinsky’s lawyers called the suggested 20-year term a “death-in-prison sentence.”

Mashinsky’s sentence follows high-profile Trump pardons for crypto execs

Trump started his term with the pardon of Silk Road 2.0 founder Ross Ulbricht, whose acceptance of Bitcoin (BTC) on his narcotics trading platform endeared him to the crypto community.

The president also commuted the sentences of Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo and Samuel Reed, three BitMEX crypto exchange executives who pleaded guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act and failing to establish a proper Anti-Money Laundering program.

Sam Mangel, a consultant to white-collar convicts who advised former Trump staffer Steve Bannon and Bankman-Fried, told Politico there has been a large spike in interest in presidential pardons.

“Everybody that is in prison now is keenly aware of the environment, and it’s become a very hot topic within the low- and minimum-security inmate communities,” said Mangel.

High-profile crypto defendants seem to have taken notice, too. Roger Ver, an early Bitcoin advocate and libertarian activist, is facing federal tax evasion charges. In January, he released a video making an outright plea to Trump for a commutation. Ver claimed that he is the victim of lawfare and likened his persecution to Trump’s legal problems following the Jan. 6 scandal.

Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced former CEO of now-defunct exchange FTX, likened his court experience with Trump’s defamation lawsuit in an interview with The New York Sun on Feb. 18. He claimed his trial was politicized under the Biden administration and that he didn’t think there was “a very fair and balanced view or approach.” His parents also reportedly met with lawyers and people close to the Trump administration to explore the possibility of a presidential pardon.

Trump’s commutation of the BitMEX executives has even led former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao to apply for clemency. On May 6, Zhao said that his lawyers had submitted an application and were awaiting a response.

The current administration is still writing the rules of the road as regulators reshuffle personnel and priorities and new legal frameworks for crypto take shape. The picture is further muddled by Trump’s own crypto projects, which have raised concerns over corruption and conflicts of interest. Mashinsky’s sentence shows that, for the financial world, certain crimes will not go unpunished.

Magazine: Adam Back says Bitcoin price cycle ’10x bigger’ but will still decisively break above $100K