Deion’s big loss, Ohio State’s narrow escape and an epic Week 4 that lived up to the hype
-
David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
The first three weeks of the season came with some genuine drama, some true upsets and roughly a billion stories about Coach Prime, but it was all little more than an appetizer to Week 4 — a Bloomin’ Onion to Saturday’s 64-ounce sirloin.
This was a day with six matchups between ranked teams.
This was a day in which Deion Sanders would finally be tested, Florida State could assert its place atop the ACC, and Alabama‘s masked defensive coordinator would finally be revealed.
This was the day a nation watched New Mexico and UMass go to overtime.
Before Saturday, the narratives were paper thin, the contenders vast, the signature wins rare.
Week 4 gave us big-boy football.
Ohio State toppled Notre Dame by about an inch and a half with one second left on the clock.
Florida State survived a heavyweight battle in overtime.
Penn State delivered a statement that it was a true contender in the Big Ten, and James Franklin was officially removed from Brian Ferentz’s Christmas card list.
Washington State won the battle of the last two remaining Pac-12 teams, which we’re pretty sure earns it a trophy of some sort. It might just be the old Civil ConFLiCt trophy with a Beaver duct-taped to the top, but a trophy nonetheless.
Nick Saban proved once again that Lane Kiffin might win every news conference, but he’s got no hope of toppling Alabama on the field.
Saturday gave us Dan Lanning’s takedown of Coach Prime, a shootout in Baton Rouge, a near-perfect performance from Spencer Rattler, a left-handed touchdown pass from Drake Maye, and Curt Cignetti asking the officials to hilariously record his voicemail greeting (or at least that’s what we choose to believe he was doing).
‘It’s clear, zebras!’ pic.twitter.com/jRT9fJq591
— Tim Holt (@TimmayHolt) September 24, 2023
In South Bend, Sam Hartman and a methodical ground game had Ohio State on the ropes and Notre Dame oh-so close to a signature win. It was not to be. Kyle McCord led a 15-play drive, hit Emeka Egbuka for a 21-yard pickup to the 1 on third-and-19, then helped push Chip Trayanum just barely over the goal line with a second left to play. If the Big Ten has given us myriad 17-14 games over the years that felt like watching paint dry, Ohio State’s win was more akin to a Godzilla-versus-Mothra showdown of titans, in which every inch of real estate earned felt momentous.
In Clemson, the Tigers looked as dynamic and intimidating as they have in three years, and it still wasn’t enough to upend ascendant Florida State. Jordan Travis and Kalen DeLoach, two players who arrived under Willie Taggart’s doomed tenure, rallied the Seminoles to a come-from-behind win in overtime.
In Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide’s offensive woes continued, but Saban proved he — or someone — still knows how to design a defense. After Kiffin promoted the conspiracy theory that Saban had secretly changed defensive playcallers a week ago (and also helped fake the moon landing, we assume), the Tide held Ole Miss to just 3-of-14 on third down, 301 total yards, and 10 points.
On the Palouse, Washington State fended off a late push by Oregon State to survive 38-35. It marked yet another in a long run of Oregon State hoping for a last-minute reprieve, only to face certain relegation to the Mountain West. It also served as a reminder that Cougars QB Cameron Ward is one of the nation’s best. He threw for 404 yards (averaged 11.9 per pass on 34 attempts) and four touchdowns in the win.
Around the country, 12 teams that entered Week 4 undefeated left with a loss.
In other words, Saturday’s games had genuine resonance — a moment when heavyweights traded blows, Cinderellas became pumpkins, Ryan Day gave the most incoherent speech about Ohio since Howard Dean, and a band member wielded a trident.
There is so much more to the story of the 2023 season still to be written, but Saturday felt like the moment when the main characters were fully fleshed out, the plot began in earnest, and stakes were made clear.
FSU, Clemson go the extra mile
The story began with a man on the beach, just hoping to enjoy his last few weeks before starting a new job. It was a story Dabo Swinney, quite presciently, predicted would either be “great or terrible.”
Indeed, there are great man-on-beach stories, such as “Weekend at Bernie’s,” and there are terrible ones, like “Weekend at Bernie’s 2.”
Alas, Saturday was the latter for Clemson.
The Tigers, in need of help in the kicking game, brought in Jonathan Weitz on Monday to take over the starting job. Weitz had been Clemson’s backup for four years, but he’d assumed his college career was done after the 2022 season ended, he left for a study abroad in Paris — “He spent the spring looking at the Eiffel Tower,” said Swinney, who we assume also believes everyone in St. Louis lives under the arch — then moved to Charleston, South Carolina, where he was taking online classes.
But Clemson needed a kicker, Swinney placed a call, and Weitz arrived Monday to join the team. Due to NCAA acclimation period rules, Saturday was his first day in pads.
The story began like a Shakespeare play, with Weitz drilling his first kick to give Clemson an early 3-0 lead, but it ended in tragedy, with Weitz missing a chip shot from 29 yards out with 1 minute, 45 seconds to play.
(Note: We haven’t read a lot of Shakespeare. We’re assuming they all have happy endings.)
1:19
Florida State survives Clemson in OT to remain undefeated
Florida State moves to 4-0 on the season as it gets help from a Clemson missed field goal and clutch play in overtime.
The miss left the game tied, and in overtime, Florida State prevailed 31-24 thanks to the second touchdown of the day from receiver Keon Coleman. It will certainly not be lost on frustrated Clemson fans that it was one of FSU’s transfers who proved to be the difference. Swinney has notoriously shied away from the portal. The beach, of course, is another story.
“I wish I’d been perfect today,” Weitz said afterward. “But that’s my story right now.”
It’s hard to imagine that anyone at Clemson envisioned the story of the Tigers’ 2023 campaign to look like this either.
After a shocking loss to Duke in the opener, Clemson is 0-2 in ACC play for the first time since 2010, Swinney’s second full season on the job. The Tigers have won at least 10 games every year since.
It was, for so long, a game that seemed destined to end with a win, with Swinney delivering another memorable-if-goofy quip (“BYOK, bring your own kicker”), with the coach lording it over the collected doubters that, once again, he was right, and they were wrong.
And then the kick went wide left, FSU scored in the first frame of OT, quarterback Cade Klubnik checked into a poorly timed screen pass on third-and-1, and Clemson’s hopes for another ACC title were all but extinguished.
Jordan Travis, playing with a wounded left arm, gutted out 289 yards and three touchdowns on a day when the running game offered just 22 yards for the Seminoles. Two years ago, he’d nearly quit football. Saturday, he presided over Florida State’s biggest win since at least 2016.
Kalen DeLoach, a holdover recruit from the Willie Taggart era, delivered the fumble return that kept FSU alive. It was almost enough to make FSU fans forget the turnover backpack.
All 289 yards of passing offense for the Seminoles came via transfers. It was a treatise on how to win in this new age of college football.
For the Seminoles, Saturday’s game was a statement. Their time is now.
For Clemson, the ending was less definitive.
Florida State is now firmly in command atop the ACC. Clemson’s title hopes are all but done. And yet, afterward, Klubnik quite reasonably said he hoped the fans saw how good the Tigers played.
Perhaps that’s the takeaway here. Florida State had its own long walk through the wilderness, but a steady accumulation of talent has the Seminoles on the mountaintop.
Clemson might not be in its own wilderness, but it’s certainly stuck in I-85 traffic, at least.
There was a time, not that long ago, that Swinney could pluck a kicker off the beach, throw a jersey on him and turn him loose, knowing — at Clemson — there was a steady supply of magic in the air.
The story ended differently Saturday, as it has all too frequently of late.
The magic belongs in Tallahassee now.
Ducks dump Deion
There are things most college football coaches think but would never say. Things like, “It’d be better to just pay the players” or “NIL is a sham” or “I’m honestly not sure which state Ball State is in.”
On Saturday, however, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning gave voice to all those coaches too uneasy to speak their own minds on Coach Prime.
“The Cinderella story’s over, men,” Lanning said in a fiery pregame speech. “They’re fighting for clicks; we’re fighting for wins.”
0:33
Lanning: Colorado’s fighting for clicks; we’re fighting for wins
Dan Lanning fires his team up pregame with a couple of shots at Colorado.
In fairness to Colorado, everyone knows that clicks are a terrible metric, and the Buffs are actually fighting for engagement and advertiser click-throughs, but that’s splitting hairs.
The important takeaway is Lanning and the Ducks put their money where their mouths were, walloping Colorado 42-6, an abrupt ending to the season’s biggest storyline.
Bo Nix accounted for four touchdowns, and Oregon’s defense was dominant. Many of the cracks in the 3-0 façade finally played havoc with the Buffaloes, with the ground game managing next to nothing, the O-line struggling badly, and the suspect secondary getting burned early and often. In the end, the Colorado die-hards, many of whom have lived and died with this team for upward of four weeks now, were given a cold dose of reality.
More than the on-field issues, however, Lanning’s speech underscored the frustration so many coaches have trying to compete with Deion Sanders, whose big personality and unconventional approach to program building threaten to upend the status quo. In other words, fans love Colorado for the same reason coaches hate the Buffs.
Don’t expect Saturday’s struggles to completely end the Cinderella story, however. Colorado has USC next week, a chance to jump-start the bandwagon. But the Buffs have already exceeded most reasonable expectations, and the buzz around Coach Prime isn’t new and won’t dissolve with a loss or two.
Considering each offseason in college football is as much about brand building and balance sheets, playing for clicks certainly seems like an entirely reasonable way to ultimately land more wins, too.
Did you say ‘Utes’?
The most overlooked team in the country through four weeks? That might be Utah.
The Utes are 4-0. They’ve beaten two ranked opponents. And they’ve done it without their starting QB.
Utah’s offense was far from electric in a 14-7 win over UCLA, but Nate Johnson — starting for the injured Cameron Rising — did enough to win, while the defense was absolutely dominant, including holding the Bruins to 3-of-17 on third-down tries.
The lack of offensive fireworks is probably one reason the Utes have largely been overlooked. In a Pac-12 defined by QB play, Utah has now won games while scoring 24, 20 and 14 and has a total of three touchdown passes in four games — something Caleb Williams or Michael Penix Jr. manage before halftime most weeks.
But credit Kyle Whittingham, who is 23-6 in the past two calendar years. That’s a better record than Clemson, Notre Dame or Oregon and trails only Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Alabama in that span.
Ugly win for the Gators
Florida welcomed Biff Poggi and Charlotte to The Swamp in Week 4, and we can only assume the 49ers head coach felt right at home in jean shorts and a sleeveless sweatshirt. Indeed, he probably spent Friday night jamming with a Tom Petty cover band, spearfishing for mermaids and wrestling a 19-foot python to a draw.
On the field, Charlotte looked pretty comfortable, too, largely stifling Florida’s offense that didn’t find the end zone after an early first-quarter score.
Instead, the highlight for the Gators was Ricky Pearsall‘s utterly ridiculous one-handed grab.
0:28
Florida’s Ricky Pearsall channels OBJ with must-see grab
Florida WR Ricky Pearsall needs just one hand to make a spectacular catch for a first down.
Pearsall finished with six catches for 104 yards, but the bulk of the offense came from kicker Trey Smack, who booted five field goals in the game. Ironically, “Trey Smack” is also the pseudonym Poggi uses when checking into hotels so he can’t be tracked by the Yakuza.
Rock, chalk, unranked Jayhawks
A blind résumé comparison through Week 3 …
Team A: 3-0, +11 points-per-game margin, a win over a bad Mountain West team and a win over a solid but underwhelming Power 5 opponent. It played an undefeated opponent in Week 4.
Team B: 3-0, +16.3 points-per-game margin, a win over a bad Mountain West team and a win over a solid but underwhelming Power 5 opponent. It played an undefeated opponent in Week 4.
Team A, you might have guessed, is Colorado. The Buffaloes were the toast of college football and entered Week 4 ranked 19th nationally.
Team B, you might not have guessed, is Kansas, a team largely ignored thus far despite playing extremely well.
So what happened in Week 4?
Colorado was blown out by undefeated Oregon.
Kansas easily beat previously undefeated BYU behind three TD throws from Jalon Daniels.
On offense, Kansas has topped 30 points in five straight games dating to last season. The Jayhawks’ D held BYU to 9 — 9! — total rush yards and had three takeaways in the triumph.
In other words: Rank the Jayhawks!
Heisman Five
Week 4 marks our first Colorado-free Heisman Five. The Buffs will be missed, but we also assume Deion Sanders will take offense to this and earn his revenge at a date to be determined.
1. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
The level of competition has not been elite thus far, but a quick recap of what Penix and the Huskies have done …
Week 1: 28-12 Washington with four Penix TD passes
Week 2: 22-3 Washington with two Penix TD passes
Week 3: 35-0 Washington with four Penix TD passes
Week 4: 45-12 Washington with three Penix TD passes
Oh, we’re sorry. That’s what Penix and the Huskies have done this season … in the first half!
2. USC QB Caleb Williams
Arizona State made things interesting, and it was far from a world-beater performance for USC; but ultimately, Williams still emerged with two passing TDs, two rushing scores and more than 300 yards of offense. Next week, he gets his real challenge though: Stealing the show from Coach Prime.
Nix had four total touchdowns in a dominant win over Colorado and, as we all know, when you defeat Coach Prime, you absorb his powers. That’s just science.
4. Florida State QB Jordan Travis
Travis said after the game he felt disrespected because Clemson played so much man defense against him and his cadre of top-tier wide receivers. Dabo Swinney insisted that wasn’t true. He just was too afraid of Travis’ legs to worry about his arm. And that, in a nutshell, is why the Seminoles are so dangerous.
5. North Carolina QB Drake Maye
OK, his numbers might not exactly be Heisman-worthy at this point, but you throw a touchdown left-handed, you make the list.
0:24
Drake Maye throws a TD … left-handed?!
Drake Maye pulls out his best Patrick Mahomes impression and throws a left-handed touchdown.
Under-the-radar play of the week
Louisville‘s 4-0 start under Jeff Brohm is so exciting, it has the Cardinals players doing cartwheels.
Or something like that.
On what appeared to be a trick play, Louisville’s Willie Tyler — a 6-foot-7, 320-pound offensive lineman — lined up in the slot and attempted to distract Boston College by waving his arms and then doing a cartwheel.
0:20
Louisville lineman does a cartwheel midplay
Louisville offensive lineman Willie Tyler does a cartwheel before the Cardinals fumble the ball out of bounds.
It didn’t exactly work, as Jack Plummer and the rest of the offense flubbed away their part of the ruse, but points to Tyler for some serious skill.
Having said that, it was hardly an effective distraction. Everyone knows if you want to distract someone from Boston, you just yell, “Brady sucks!” and then let them throw empty Sam Adams cans at each other for the next 45 minutes.
Under-the-radar game of the week
If you enjoyed Miami vs. Miami in Week 1, then Week 4 had just the matchup for you.
In Houston (a city named for Sam Houston) on Saturday, Houston (a school named after the city named for Sam Houston) faced off against … Sam Houston (a school named for Sam Houston but not the city of Houston because it’s actually located Huntsville, Texas, which, of course, is named for famed frontiersman Tiberius K. Huntsville).
Certainly it seemed like Houston was the better team, but then, Sam Houston had 100% of the Sam in this one. It would be like a mid-’90s battle of the bands between The Verve and The Verve Pipe. Sure, “Bittersweet Symphony” was a banger, but how do you account for the pipe?
As it turned out, Houston (the team) was entirely too much for Sam Houston (the team, not the man), winning 38-7 behind 105 yards and three rushing TDs from Parker Jenkins. Also, believe it or not, Sam Houston (the man) was actually born in Virginia.
There will be a quiz on all this later.
Harbaugh’s return
Michigan‘s long wait for the return of its head coach came to an end Saturday. Yes, Jim Harbaugh had to pack up his model trains, put away the ham radio and sign out of Netflix with four seasons of “The Big Bang Theory” left to watch and get back to the business of embarrassing Rutgers.
In his absence, Michigan won all three games — all vs. lesser competition, all in convincing, if not entirely satisfying, fashion.
So, what happened with Harbaugh back on the sideline? A win against lesser competition in convincing, if not entirely satisfying, fashion — this time 31-7.
Rutgers scored first on a 69-yard touchdown pass from Gavin Wimsatt to Christian Dremel, and Michigan’s offense largely puttered through the first half, leading just 14-7 at the break.
But like Harbaugh’s three-week relaxation retreat, the fun had to come to an end eventually, with the Wolverines’ D netting a pick-six and running back Blake Corum finishing the job. J.J. McCarthy averaged better than 10 yards per throw, Corum scored twice, and the defense held Rutgers to 3-of-13 on third and fourth down. It was, like each of the Wolverines’ games so far, fine. And given that Michigan’s next five games are also against lesser competition, fine is likely more than enough to keep it chugging along.
Oh, sorry for the chugging reference. We know Harbaugh misses his trains.
Paint the town Orange
Garrett Shrader threw for a touchdown and ran for one — his sixth straight multi-TD game — while the Syracuse defense frustrated Army‘s option en route to a 29-16 win.
Syracuse is now 4-0 in consecutive seasons for the first time in 63 years. Back then, Syracuse traveled to road games via the Erie Canal, and Varsity Pizza had just been promoted from the freshman pizza team to JV.
Up next for the Orange is Clemson, a team they had on the ropes a year ago with a 7-0 start to the season in their sights. In that game, however, the Tigers marched back from a 21-7 deficit and won 27-21 after holding the Orange scoreless in the second half, and Syracuse dropped six of its final seven games.
Johnson emerges for A&M
Fun fact: Max Johnson is still playing college football.
Yes, he somehow feels older than his Super Bowl champion dad, Brad, but that’s only because time moves differently at Texas A&M thanks to Jimbo Fisher’s offense breaking the space-time continuum.
Nevertheless, it’s good for the Aggies that Johnson is still around because they desperately needed someone who could sling it against Auburn on Saturday.
After two early field goal drives, A&M’s offense went three-and-out on three straight drives to end the half. Starting QB Conner Weigman went down with an injury, and offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino was already getting his agent to send over his CV to apply for Fisher’s job. (We’re kidding, of course. Fisher dodges job-security concerns better than he dodges Auburn defenders.)
0:46
Auburn DB dodges Jimbo Fisher en route to defensive TD
Auburn’s Eugene Asante picks up the loose ball and dodges Jimbo Fisher as he runs down the sideline for a 67-yard touchdown.
Instead, Johnson came on and tossed touchdown passes on consecutive drives to open the second half, and a 67-yard scoop-and-score put the game out of reach early in the fourth quarter. The Aggies won 27-10.
On the flip side, Auburn’s passing game was a complete mess. Payton Thorne, Robby Ashford and Holden Geriner all took snaps and finished a combined 9-of-23 passing for just 56 yards, with Auburn’s lone TD coming via the defense. And that performance might have reminded Petrino that he still has an application on file with Auburn’s human resources department.
The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Could Jarren Duran be on the move from the Boston Red Sox? Will the Arizona Diamondbacks deal Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen to contenders? And who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?
Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.
More: Top 50 trade candidates | Trade grades | Fantasy spin | Ranking traded prospects
Jump to: Latest intel | Completed deals | Previous intel
This week’s MLB trade deadline buzz
July 29
Robert trade talk heats up: NL East rivals are vying for outfielder Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, with Chicago apparently resolute in the stance that it’ll either receive a trade return the equivalent of what Robert’s potential is or hang on to him beyond the deadline. The White Sox hold a $20 million option on Robert next season, and they have tons of payroll flexibility moving forward, meaning that there really is no financial stress in the decision; Chicago doesn’t have to dump the contract.
A lot of Robert’s career has been filled with injuries or underwhelming performance, but he has always been viewed as a superstar talent. Luisangel Acuna and Mark Vientos are among the names that have come up in conversations with the Mets, and the Phillies have a farm system loaded with pitching. The Padres have also inquired about Robert. — Buster Olney
Braves moving Ozuna? Possibly to Padres? With little more than 48 hours to go before the deadline, there is movement developing around Marcell Ozuna, who has the power to reject any trade proposal. At least one team has had internal conversations about trying to work out a deal for the slugger.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Padres emerge as a possible landing spot for Ozuna. San Diego has some of baseball’s worst DH production this year — wRC+ of 82, which ranks 28th — and presumably, the prospect-strapped Padres wouldn’t have to give up much to get him. — Olney
Cards looking to deal Helsley: For a lot of this season, rival executives weren’t sure if the Cardinals would trade players at the deadline, because their perception was the organization wanted to have as good of a season as possible in John Mozeliak’s last year running baseball operations. They weren’t sure if closer Ryan Helsley, a free-agent-to-be, would be dealt. As recently as a few days ago, it was still unclear to some teams whether Helsley would be moved.
But on Tuesday morning, multiple executives said the Cardinals are exchanging names and appear devoted to moving Helsley, though the offers for him might not be as robust as they had hoped. Helsley’s strikeout rate is down this season, he’s allowed a higher percentage of homers, and his ERA has climbed. “He’s not having the lights-out season we’ve seen from him before,” said one evaluator. The Tigers, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays are among the contenders looking for relief help. — Olney
Are the Rays adding or subtracting? Even they don’t know: The market is still stalled somewhat by teams deciding what they want to do. Tampa Bay is at the top of that list. The Rays have pitchers — both starters and relievers — that teams want. But being just on the outside of the wild-card race is causing some hesitation for the Rays. — Jesse Rogers
Yankees seeking relief — and lots of it: The Yankees continue to look for relief help. They have resources deployed throughout the league in search of bullpen arms. If there is a closer or setup man available, New York is scouting him. Think Ryan Helsley and work down from there. — Rogers
Speaking of relievers: Other teams believe the Colorado Rockies could make a killing in the current market if they dealt their best relievers — Seth Halvorsen, Jake Bird and Jimmy Herget. But some of those same teams view the current asking prices as unreachable, and they wonder if the Rockies will bend as the deadline gets closer. — Olney
Rangers ready to rock at the deadline: The Texas Rangers have won nine of 11 and rival executives report that the Rangers are aggressively looking to upgrade their bullpen before the trade deadline. — Olney
July 28
Mets in need of relievers: As we close in on the deadline, the Mets are looking to ideally add two relievers — a center fielder, and possibly an additional hitter to slot in a designated hitter, in the event that their current regular DH Mark Vientos is one of the players they need to include in a deal to address their needs.
White Sox CF Luis Robert Jr. is their top target for the center-field need, with Orioles CF Cedric Mullins as the second option, as Jesse Rogers has noted below. I’m told the White Sox have focused on Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Vientos and Luisangel Acuna in those Robert talks, with the last two being the most realistic options. — Kiley McDaniel
Bader could be a hot commodity: The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are among the teams that have shown interest in Twins outfielder Harrison Bader, sources told ESPN. Bader is a plus defender batting .255 with 12 home runs and a .777 OPS in 93 games this season. His 2.0 fWAR ranks 30th in the majors among outfielders. He would effectively be a rental for a contender; he signed a one-year deal with $6.25 million guaranteed plus up to $2 million in bonuses that includes a mutual option for 2026. He is likely to opt for free agency to secure a better contract before his age-32 season.
Bader has played for both New York clubs; with the Yankees in 2022 and 2023 and with the Mets last season. The Yankees seek a right-handed-hitting outfielder with Aaron Judge’s flexor strain throwing a wrench into their season. The Mets could use an upgrade in center field. The Dodgers, meanwhile, could use Bader in center field, move Andy Pages to left field and struggling Michael Conforto (.194 batting average and .650 OPS) to the bench. — Jorge Castillo
Yankees in on Bader, Slater? The Yankees continue to work on adding bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, and they have talked with other teams about right-handed-hitting outfielders. Former Yankee Harrison Bader is among those discussed, as well as White Sox outfielder Austin Slater. The Yankees’ bullpen has been the weakest part of the team this year, and they will be among the contenders likely to add relief before the deadline. — Olney
Blue Jays — like most teams — need bullpen help: Toronto is in an increasingly commanding position in the AL East, and one of the advantages the Blue Jays have is the flexibility of their position player group. They have a handful of players who can change spots according to the day-to-day needs of manager John Schneider. Like so many contending teams, the Jays are working to add bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, from the enormous pool of available relievers. — Olney
Yankees eyeing a few Bucs: The Yankees’ focus is now on adding pitchers — both a starter and multiple relievers — after upgrading their position player group with the additions of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario over the weekend.
As Kiley McDaniel notes below, Nationals All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore is a possible option if the Yankees are willing to pay a steep price.
New York has also shown interest in the Pirates’ available arms, a source told ESPN. Right-handed starter Mitch Keller, left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson and right-handed relievers David Bednar and Dennis Santana are among the pitchers Pittsburgh could move before Thursday’s deadline.
Landing Keller, a quality midrotation starter, would also require a hefty haul since the veteran is under contract over the next three seasons for about $54.5 million. So would adding Bednar, who is one of the top relievers available and under team control through next season. — Castillo
July 27
Mets are scouring CF market — and Robert could play a big part: The New York Mets are keeping an eye on centerfielders Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles and Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox.
Robert returned to the lineup on Sunday as the designated hitter after missing the previous two games due to groin tightness. Before getting hurt, he was easily having the best month he has had over the past two seasons, hitting .351 with a .442 OBP in July. The White Sox have been waiting for an increase in prospect capital to move forward on a deal. It’s possible they finally get it this week; but they could always pick up the option in his contract this offseason and do this all over again next year. Robert’s production this month has teams intrigued. — Jesse Rogers
Not all White Sox players are on the table: The Chicago White Sox are holding out for a decent prospect return for starter Adrian Houser, who is likely to get moved by the deadline — unless teams just don’t believe in his 2.10 ERA over 11 starts. The Sox would love a 10th-to-20th-ranked prospect from an opposing organization’s farm system for him; though, teams are likely to lean toward the lower end of that instead of what Chicago prefers, closer to the higher end. The New York Yankees were among teams scouting Houser this weekend. He pitched another good one against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Meanwhile, depth outfielder Mike Tauchman isn’t likely to get traded. While Chicago still has another year of team control over him, the coaching staff has raved about his influence within its young clubhouse. He would be more valuable on the open market if he could play center field, but leg issues are a concern, and the White Sox aren’t likely to get much in prospect return for him. — Rogers
The market for one Marlins starter could be heating up: Teams unwilling or unable to meet the demands for Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore, two controllable starters who are more likely to stay put than move at this point, could easily pivot to Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. The 27-year-old is controllable through the 2028 season and has been on a really good run, posting a 2.47 ERA since the start of May.
Another Marlins pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, has been the big name bandied about on the trade front all year, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be moved. Alcantara has struggled in his initial return from Tommy John surgery and is controllable for an additional two years. And the Marlins — surging of late, with 20 wins in their past 28 games — can easily justify holding on to him if they are not blown away by offers. At this point, Cabrera seems more likely to be traded. — Alden Gonzalez
Gore’s market is stalled for now: Jesse Rogers noted below (July 24 update) that the Chicago Cubs are looking to add a starting pitcher with years of control and would consider including a young position player, though hopefully not a top prospect, to make that happen. MacKenzie Gore is one of those targets, and the key player the Washington Nationals are rumored to want in a return package is Matt Shaw, who isn’t yet on the table and graduated from prospect status this season with 71 MLB games.
The New York Yankees are also shopping for a starting pitcher and have some young position players of interest to rivals, but they aren’t keen on including either of their top prospects, George Lombard Jr. or Spencer Jones. If they change that stance, they could be a dark horse fit with the Nats on Gore. — McDaniel
Boston should target Tampa Bay’s Diaz: The Tampa Bay Rays‘ struggles over the past month have really surprised other teams — and the Rays’ staffers, too — and now they could shift to become dealers at the deadline. Tampa Bay first baseman Yandy Diaz would be an absolutely perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox. He’s making $10 million this year (the Red Sox would be on the hook for about a third of that), and he has a very attractive $12 million option for 2026. — Olney
Could Ozuna be one of the Braves on the move? The Atlanta Braves might be the most disappointing team in the big leagues this year, and now they are fully prepared to execute a minor sell-off before the deadline, moving relievers Raisel Iglesias (who is making $16 million this year) and Pierce Johnson ($7 million, with a $7 million option for 2026) and maybe others. Marcell Ozuna, benched recently when manager Brian Snitker decided to devote the DH spot to catchers Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin, has 10-5 rights and can veto any trade proposal, which means the Braves are unlikely to engage any team in trade talks about Ozuna. If another team calls the Braves, however, to ask about his availability, then they will ask Ozuna if he would accept a move. The market for DHs is extremely limited, and Atlanta would presumably have to eat at least some of the $5 million or so owed to the slugger for the rest of this season. — Olney
Look for Texas to now be aggressive at the deadline: If you were to line up all the MLB president of baseball operations and general managers on a spectrum from most competitive to least, the peers of Rangers GM Chris Young would probably pick him to be the most competitive — which is why other teams assume that with Texas surging in the standings of late, the Rangers will be adding before the deadline. A few weeks ago, the assumption among those other clubs was that the Rangers would become dealers and perhaps move Adolis Garcia and others. But they have won eight of nine since the All-Star break and start Sunday just a half-game out of the third wild-card position. And remember, in 2023, Texas limped into the postseason and wound up winning the World Series. — Olney
Can Mets find an ace at deadline? The market has been very thin in teams offloading, but according to sources, the Mets continue to look around to see whether there’s a match for a starting pitcher capable of taking the ball for a Game 1, Game 2 or Game 3 of a postseason series. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks could be that guy, or maybe it’s Seth Lugo of the Royals, or the Padres’ Dylan Cease. Perhaps it’s one of the two big-time starters who will be under team control beyond this season, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara or the Twins’ Joe Ryan. The Mets’ rotation was exceptional early in the year, before injuries and natural regression began to take a toll, and the team could use a boost in the front end of this group as they fight the Phillies for NL East supremacy. — Olney
Which way will deadline bubble teams go? The staredown continues as deadline week begins, with perhaps as many as a half-dozen teams waiting to declare their status. “This weekend is big for a lot of teams,” said one evaluator.
The Rays, who appeared to be gathering momentum a month ago, are now just a game over .500, and given the organization’s longstanding focus on maximizing the value of their players, some rival evaluators think they could now be considering dealing some pieces away.
The St. Louis Cardinals are two games over .500, with the industry waiting to see whether they will deal closer Ryan Helsley. The expectation is that they will, given the tough NL playoff landscape. The Tigers could be interested, maybe the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers or Yankees.
The Los Angeles Angels are now five games under .500, and the presumption is that they will eventually move some players before the deadline, but the Angels don’t always operate in the way teams typically do. Taylor Ward has drawn interest from other organizations. — Olney
Completed deal tracker
Click here for grades for every major deal
Rays deal catcher to Brewers, get one from Marlins
The Milwaukee Brewers acquired catcher Danny Jansen from the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are also acquired catcher Nick Fortes from the Miami Marlins.
The Detroit Tigers receive RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak from the Minnesota Twins for C/1B Enrique Jimenez.
Braves add veteran rotation arm
The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash.
Yankees make another deal for infield depth
The New York Yankees acquired utility man Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers.
Royals get outfielder in trade with D-backs
The Kansas City Royals acquired veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-hander Andrew Hoffmann.
Yankees land infielder McMahon in deal with Rockies
The New York Yankees are acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon in a trade with the Colorado Rockies.
Mets get bullpen help from O’s
The New York Mets have acquired left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from the Baltimore Orioles.
Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor
The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi.
Previous deadline buzz
July 25 updates
Will the Royals trade Lugo — or extend him? Seth Lugo is an intriguing name in the trade market, but rival evaluators don’t sense the Royals are especially motivated to make a deal. Kansas City could also use this moment to explore an extension with Lugo, to keep their deep well of starting pitching intact. — Buster Olney
Angels’ deadline plans coming into focus: Any confusion about whether the Angels will add or subtract ahead of the trade deadline has seemingly cleared up in recent days, with a four-game losing streak that has them five games under .500.
The Angels are telling teams their pending free agents are available, sources with knowledge of the situation said. That includes third baseman Yoan Moncada, utility infielder Luis Rengifo, starting pitcher Tyler Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen. Left fielder Taylor Ward, controllable through 2026, can also be had with the right deal.
The Angels famously never rebuild under owner Arte Moreno and are prone to adding even in times when they seem like long shots to contend — most notably in 2023, when they not only held on to Shohei Ohtani but also traded for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez before collapsing in August.
At this time last year, they tried to move the likes of Anderson and Rengifo but did not believe they would have received enough back to justify holding on to them through the following season. And so it is worth noting: Even if the Angels do decide to punt on 2025, their goal would be to contend again next season.
Any moves they make would probably be geared toward that. By trading away rentals, the Angels will try to use the trade deadline to add accomplished players who can help the team next year. — Alden Gonzalez
What the Astros might be looking for: The Astros’ best fit in a hitter is someone who could play second base or left field, and they can move Jose Altuve accordingly. Per FanGraphs, the Astros have a 94.5% chance to reach the postseason; they lead the Mariners by five games in the AL West. — Buster Olney
How Arizona could shape the trade deadline: The Diamondbacks informed other teams in the past that they would “probably” be dealing away players, but even after trading Josh Naylor to Seattle, it’s unclear just how far Arizona will go. If the D-Backs decided to go all-in on trading veterans, they could reshape their organization significantly, by moving free-agents-to-be Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and, of course, Eugenio Suarez.
The perception of other front offices is that Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick does not want to completely offload, especially with the Dodgers drifting back toward the pack in the NL West — and as of Thursday night, Suarez wasn’t even officially on the market.
The Diamondbacks, who reached the World Series in 2023 after winning just 84 games during the regular season, won their first three games after the All-Star break, but have subsequently lost three in a row. What some rival evaluators believe is that if the D-Backs keep dealing, it’ll be because of a nudge from the front office. Arizona has been extensively scouting other organizations in preparation. — Buster Olney
White Sox starter drawing interest from contenders: About a half-dozen or more scouts will be in attendance at Rate Field on Friday night when Adrian Houser takes the mound for the White Sox. He has compiled a 1.89 ERA in 10 starts for Chicago after being picked up midseason. Teams don’t believe they’ll have to give up a lot to acquire him, and he could make for a good back-end starter or depth piece for a contender. The White Sox are likely to move him at his peak, and Friday could be the final look for those who are interested. — Jesse Rogers
July 24 updates
Could Mets land this deadline’s top slugger? Eugenio Suarez could be an intriguing option for the Mets as they’ve gotten little production out of Mark Vientos at third base. And if things work out and Suarez wants to stay — and they want him to — he could also provide protection for the Mets at first base in case Pete Alonso moves on next season. The Mets rank 23rd in OPS at third, so why wouldn’t they inquire about Suarez, knowing they can hand the position back to Vientos in 2026 if they wish. — Jesse Rogers
July 23 updates
Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.
The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo
A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney
How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers
Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.
The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez
July 22 updates
An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney
Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney
Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney
Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers
How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.
Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney
What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.
But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.
It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez
Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers
Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.
But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney
Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers
Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.
The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez
Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney
-
Bill Connelly
No matter how we go about setting our preseason expectations for the 2025 college football season — polls, computer projections, pure gut instincts — we’re going to end up mostly right. We’re going to assume that the teams that were the best last season will be the best this season, and that’s going to bear out in most instances.
In other cases, however, we’re going to be hilariously incorrect. Take last season’s preseason top 10: Six of those teams ended up in the year-end top six and scored College Football Playoff bids, and two others were among the top three teams to miss the CFP. Very accurate! But then, preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State fell from a combined 28-1 the year before to 10-15. Both finished unranked. They basically switched bodies, “Freaky Friday” style, with Arizona State and Indiana, who went from a combined 6-18 in 2023 to 24-5 with top-10 finishes and playoff bids.
Every season is mostly predictable except for a handful of absolute shocks. And the goal of this annual piece is to identify which of last season’s good surprise teams are most likely to sustain their gains and which of the bad surprise programs are most likely to bounce back. Using SP+ ratings and luck factors as our guide, we can usually pinpoint the likeliest teams for each category.
In last year’s edition of this column, the seven “most likely to sustain breakthroughs” teams I named went from a combined 49-41 with an average SP+ ranking of 53.9 to 60-32 and 40.6, respectively. Colorado, Colorado State and Miami won an additional 11 more games between them, while Colorado, Miami, Rutgers and Virginia Tech each improved by at least 14 more spots in SP+. Meanwhile, the six teams I named for the “most likely to rebound from a regression season” list went from a combined 27-47 with an 81.5 average ranking to 42-34 and 54.7. Five improved their win totals, and all six improved their SP+ rankings. Success!
The preseason poll rankings and final SP+ projections for 2025 are coming in August. But while we wait, let’s once again predict some of this coming season’s happier stories. Which of 2024’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are likeliest to bounce back?
Teams most likely to sustain 2024 gains
When our team surges to unexpected success in a given season, we like to think of this as the new reality. We’re good now! That’s never going to change again! Unfortunately, reality rarely agrees with that. Over the past 20 years, we’ve seen an average of 1.9 teams improving by at least 20 ratings points in SP+ and an average of 18.0 improving by at least 10 points. On average, these teams regress the next season 61% of the time, 32% by at least a touchdown.
These numbers haven’t necessarily changed in the 2020s, aka the transfer portal era. The rules of roster management have been completely altered, but since 2021 we’ve still seen 18.3 teams improving by 10-plus points in a given season. Interestingly, only 54% regressed the next year, 25% by a touchdown or more. We don’t yet know whether this is a small-sample effect or a genuine shift in the data, so I’ll still lean on the historic averages, but it’s something to watch.
In 2024, 16 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on the averages above, we can expect about 40% of them — six or seven — to improve further in 2025. Only two were projected to do so in my most recent SP+ rankings, which means I’ll have to stray from the numbers to pull the list together. But after writing lengthy conference previews about each team, here are the teams I believe are the likeliest candidates to build on 2024’s surprise success:
2023: 3-9 record, 107th in SP+ (-11.3 adjusted points per game, or 11.3 worse than the average college football team)
2024: 11-3, 35th (+9.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.4 average wins, 22nd (+12.2)
From my Big 12 preview: “It’s hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one-third, and while that wasn’t enough to earn the trust of SP+ — and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate — enough of last year’s key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.”
Because of all those close wins, it might be difficult for Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils to match last year’s 11-win total, especially without Cam Skattebo around to grind out tough-as-hell yards at times. But Skattebo is just about the only major departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt should have an improved receiving corps, where Jordyn Tyson is joined by late-2024 big-play producer Malik McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and high-upside youngsters such as Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama). Meanwhile, the offensive line and a defense that also surged down the stretch are both loaded with seniors.
This is a team built for another run and further improvement on paper, even if the god of close games turns against it at some point.
2023: 3-9 record, 97th in SP+ (-8.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 38th (+8.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.7 average wins, 35th (+7.5)
Again from the Big 12 preview: “Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points. … The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025. Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense.”
Baylor won the last six games of the regular season, scoring an average of 12.1 points more than projected, and almost all of the reasons for the offensive surge return. It’s indeed up to Matt Powledge’s defense — which also improved in 2024, but only to 63rd in defensive SP+ — to determine the Bears’ fate. Experience won’t be an issue. Dave Aranda added 13 transfers to go with the 10 returnees who saw 200-plus snaps last year. And there are known playmakers such as tackle Jackie Marshall, incoming linebacker Travion Barnes (FIU) and nickelback Carl Williams IV, too. After rebounding into the SP+ top 40 last season, it sure looks like the Bears are built to crack the top 30 this time around.
2023: 3-9 record, 119th in SP+ (-15.2 adjusted PPG)
2024: 9-4, 87th (-4.0)
2025 projection (as of May): 7.7 average wins, 91st (-7.1)
From my MAC preview: “[Pete Lembo] engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. … From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference.”
Buffalo was extremely all-or-nothing last season, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 11 points six times and underachieving by that much three times. But that’s a net gain! Even without any semblance of offensive efficiency, the Bulls fielded their best team in four years. This time around, they should have enough offensive experience to avoid quite as many three-and-outs, and maybe no Group of 5 defense returns a proven trio of disruptors in end Kobe Stewart, outside linebacker Dion Crawford and inside linebacker Red Murdock. SP+ projects UB as the third-best team in the MAC, but after a season-opening trip to Minnesota — not a gimme for the Golden Gophers — the Bulls are at least slight projected favorites in every game.
I wish I felt better about their quarterback situation, where either journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson or little-used backup Gunnar Gray is likely to start. But aside from maybe Toledo, no other MAC team brings this much upside to the table in 2025.
2023: 5-7 record, 75th in SP+ (-2.5 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 31st (+9.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.7 average wins, 19th (+14.3)
From my Big Ten preview: “The Illini won 10 games for the first time in 23 years, and [Bret] Bielema rang in 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer on national television. Illinois finished 16th in the AP poll, and now it leads the conference in returning production. … If experience produces sturdy play early in the season, look out. By the end of September, the Illini will have played relative toss-ups at Duke and Indiana and at home against USC. Win all three, and they’re going to be in the playoff discussion for quite a while. But it’s hard to get the breaks you need in close games for two straight years.”
Like Arizona State, Illinois could be another “improve on paper, regress in the win column” team depending on how long the good fortune in close games continues. But of the top four projected teams in the Big Ten, the Illini play only one and should win quite a few games by well more than one score. New go-to running back Aidan Laughery could enjoy a huge season, and if quarterback Luke Altmyer gets a good year from at least one transfer receiver — the most likely of the bunch: Hudson Clement (West Virginia) — this offense should be Illinois’ first top-50 attack in 15 years (!). I’m concerned about the remodeled defensive line, but coordinator Aaron Henry gets the benefit of the doubt. This should be a solid team.
0:42
Carson Beck: Joining Miami feels like ‘a full-circle moment’
Carson Beck joins “SportsCenter” to discuss growing up a Florida Gators fan and playing college football for some of their biggest rivals.
2023: 7-6 record, 28th in SP+ (+9.6 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 10th (+21.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.2 average wins, 12th (+18.8)
From my ACC preview: “After a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. … I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, [Georgia transfer Carson] Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.”
This one’s definitely more about sustaining gains than prepping for another surge. You can only rise so much higher than 10th. But I do think Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have a chance of matching last year’s general quality, albeit in a more balanced way: The offense will almost certainly regress a bit while the defense improves. If the latter matches or outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!
With good health and better help up front, defensive line star Rueben Bain Jr. could have a huge year, and I really like the additions in the secondary, especially ultra-aggressive safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). The Miami defense should have never been as poor as it was late last fall, but it will have a chance to make amends in 2025.
2023: 3-9 record, 91st in SP+ (-7.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 7-6, 51st (+4.9)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.1 average wins, 47th (+3.4)
From the ACC preview: “As delightful as they looked during their unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way. … [Desmond Reid] aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.”
It’s hard to trust any Pitt prediction. The Panthers improved by five wins in 2021, regressed by six in 2023, then improved by four in 2024. In that tiny span, they have ranked as high as sixth in offensive SP+ and as low as 108th. They’re capable of anything. But last year’s offense jumped to 54th and would have risen even further if quarterback Eli Holstein had stayed healthy. With Holstein, Reid, a more experienced offensive line and big-time defensive disruptors such as linebacker Kyle Louis and end Jimmy Scott, this is at least a top-40 team. We’ll see about the “ACC dark horse” line above, but further improvement feels likely.
Teams most likely to rebound from a 2024 stumble
In a universe in which you’re measured by wins and losses, everything is zero-sum: If someone’s rising, someone’s falling. And the trend for collapses is almost identical to the trend for sudden surges. Over the past 20 years, an average of 1.8 teams have collapsed by at least 20 adjusted points per game in SP+, and an average of 16.9 have fallen by at least 10 points. Of those teams that stumble, 64% of them improve the next season and 36% by at least a touchdown. The trends of the 2020s have been relatively similar: Only about 14.5 teams have regressed by 10-plus points over the past four seasons — again, we’ll see if that’s a trend — and 68% have rebounded the next year.
Last year, two teams regressed by 20-plus points: the aforementioned Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines. Twelve others fell by at least 10 points. Averages suggest about 36% of these 14 teams — around five — will improve by a touchdown or more in 2025. Here are the five I think are most likely:
2023: 9-4 record, 45th in SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)
2024: 5-7, 111th (-11.7)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.2 average wins, 94th (-7.3)
From my Mountain West preview: “A lost season became an encouraging one late: Over their last five games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an average of 17.7 points per game, and after a 20-3 loss to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their last four games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages still weren’t great, but as with Michigan, Air Force basically saw its win total cut in half from the previous season but somehow still ended up in a good mood.”
Even with Air Force’s recent success — at least nine wins in four consecutive full seasons — it was easy to predict a collapse in 2024, as the Falcons had one of the lowest returning production averages in recent memory. It’s almost as easy to predict a solid rebound this year, mainly because it already started late last season. If junior Josh Johnson is half-decent at quarterback, the offense should get back on track with help from fullback Dylan Carson, big-play slot back Cade Harris and error-free center Costen Cooley. The defense has quite a bit to replace in the secondary, but veteran defensive tackle Payton Zdroik should ensure disruption up front. This team should at least climb back to 7-5 or 8-4.
0:52
FSU QB Castellanos stands by Alabama jab
Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos speaks to reporters about what he meant by his jab at Alabama during the summer.
2023: 13-1 record, ninth in SP+ (+19.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 2-10, 83rd (-3.2)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.8 average wins, 36th (+7.2)
Again from the ACC preview: “This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But [Mike] Norvell will try. … There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse?”
This is some pretty low-hanging fruit — if the Seminoles are average in 2025, that will qualify as solid improvement after last season’s disintegration. I’m not sure what to expect from a remodeled offense; new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has an awfully Malzahn-friendly QB in the speedy transfer Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) and new potential big-play receivers in Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Randy Pittman Jr. (UCF), but it might be hard to get a rebuilt offensive line up to speed. Regardless, the defensive front six has some new playmakers, and again, the bar for improvement is incredibly low. I’m not sure how many games Norvell needs to win to save his job, but the Noles will almost certainly not go 2-10 again.
2023: 15-0 record, first in SP+ (+31.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 26th (+10.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 average wins, 10th (+21.5)
From the Big Ten preview: “The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st — last nationally among non-service academies — in passing yards per game (129.1). … Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore’s second Michigan team, and it’s probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap.”
Seeing Michigan projected 10th overall was a bit concerning, as the offense still has loads of questions. But I’d be surprised if the Wolverines didn’t have a top-10 defense, and the schedule features only one projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won eight games and beat Ohio State and Alabama while getting almost nothing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn’t ready to lead a CFP team yet, a return to 9-3 or so and occasional actual passing yardage don’t seem like too much to ask.
2023: 3-9 record, 116th in SP+ (-14.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 1-11, 133rd (-25.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 3.4 average wins, 128th (-17.7)
From my Sun Belt preview: “What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, [Charles Huff] has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. … SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.”
The story of Southern Miss in 2025 could only take place in 2025 and no time before. Southern Miss was wretched last season, but almost no one’s left from that team. Meanwhile, quarterback Braylon Braxton, five receivers, four defensive linemen and eight defensive backs — including star corner Josh Moten — and quite a few others followed Charles Huff from Marshall to Hattiesburg.
I have no idea how to set accurate expectations, but as with Florida State, this is low-hanging fruit. It will be an improvement if the Golden Eagles go 3-9 and rank in the 120s. And with zero opponents projected higher than 71st in SP+, topping the 4.5 wins set at ESPN BET doesn’t seem outlandish.
2023: 14-1 record, 13th in SP+ (+16.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 6-7, 58th (+3.1)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.3 average wins, 39th (+6.4)
Again from the Big Ten preview: “If [Demond Williams Jr.] is genuinely good — and doesn’t take a million sacks — then there’s a legitimate chance for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He’ll have a relatively experienced line in front of him and a skill corps that includes 1,000-yard back Jonah Coleman (and a physical backup in sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transfer Omari Evans, and another sophomore in big-play tight end Decker DeGraaf. … Fisch generated lots of traction in his second season at Arizona, and it’s not hard to envision something similar happening at UW. But he’ll need to hit on a lot of transfers, and he’ll need his faith in a guy with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded.”
In the past four seasons, Washington has bounced from 4-8 to 11-2 to 14-1 to 6-7. That’s enough to give you motion sickness, but the combination of Williams, Coleman, Boston and a semi-experienced offensive line should do good things. Plus, the defense has enough exciting new players — tackle Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona), linebacker Xe’ree Alexander (UCF), corner Tacario Davis (Arizona), safeties CJ Christian (Florida International) and Alex McLaughlin (NAU) — that new coordinator Ryan Walters might get away with the aggressive man defense he usually prefers. Playing four projected top-20 teams could make 8-4 or so the ceiling this year, but improvement still seems likely.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike