Time for a resurgence: How Terry, Forsberg, other NHL stars will level up in 2023-24
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
The dawn of an NHL season offers unparalleled promise. It’s a slate wiped clean for the ultimate fresh start. Everyone’s on equal footing again, in an official erasure of whatever happened — good or bad — the prior campaign.
That opening puck drop doesn’t come without months of preparation, though, and we’re not just talking in the gym. Getting game-day ready goes beyond just the weight a player can handle on the squat rack — to how they manage the load of inevitable expectation on their shoulders.
“I think the hardest part of pro hockey and being in the NHL isn’t necessarily the physical part,” Anaheim Ducks forward Troy Terry told ESPN at the NHL’s player tour in Las Vegas this month. “It’s the mental side of things.”
And how. Terry is one of several top skaters within their organizations who’ve recently learned that lesson — among others — the hard way. Focusing on the body — how it’s fueled, trained and rested — is (relatively) easy to control. But there’s no guarantee it translates into on-ice results.
When there’s a disconnect between the two, doubt naturally creeps in. Pressure ramps up.
Terry felt that in Anaheim last season during what was just his second full NHL campaign. Tom Wilson, coming off his 10th season with the Washington Capitals, went through a frustrating ride of his own in 2022-23. Veterans and newbies alike can’t escape a down, disappointing, or demoralizing year. But they can all use it as an opportunity to snap back — and level up.
That’s why, after a too-long summer for too many NHLers, the 2023-24 season can’t begin soon enough. When it does, some skaters will be eyeing their own sort of resurgence — whether coming off injury, a disappointing individual performance or by simply trying to prove (to themselves, and everyone else) why this season will be better than ever.
TERRY COULDN’T UNDERSTAND what happened in mid-December last season.
After scoring 12 goals and 28 points in his first 31 games, he hit a wall.
Hard.
“I went 16 games at that point last year without scoring a goal, which was tough for me,” Terry said. “When I look back at it, I think I played well, I was getting points, but for whatever reason during that time I just could not score. And it put my goal totals off for the rest of this year.”
That roadblock was uncharted territory for Terry on the heels of his much-lauded breakout effort. The 26-year-old made waves in 2021-22 — his first full NHL season — producing 37 goals and 67 points in 75 games, becoming the youngest Ducks player in franchise history to record a point streak of 15 games or longer, and being voted to his first NHL All-Star Game appearance.
Those stats not only put Terry on the NHL’s radar in a major way, they earned him a seven-year, $49 million contract extension in the offseason that committed some of the best days of his playing career to Anaheim.
Terry anticipated not just meeting any newfound expectations associated with the long-term deal, but surpassing them. But on an Anaheim squad deep into rebuilding, it was Terry who found his own foundation shaken despite notching a solid 23 goals and 61 points through 70 games.
“It’s funny, I had similar point totals [in 2022-23 as before], but my goal [numbers] being off was hard,” he said. “But as a player, I think I took steps, and it’s nice when we have a young team, and I was lucky enough to sign a long deal. So, I think my focus is just being a good hockey player and being a good teammate this year. That usually helps translate into points.”
Taking a cue from his home base in the eternal summer of Southern California, Terry is determined to maintain a sunny mindset. His newest housemate has been an invaluable source of inspiration in that respect; Terry and his wife, Dani, welcomed Greyson James in April, a life-changing experience that put everything — including hockey — into much-needed perspective.
“Having a kid and everything that’s changed [because of that] in my life, you start to not live or die by how you’re doing on the ice,” Terry said. “You realize there’s more important things in your world. Not that hockey is not important, but you’re more than just a hockey player. And I think that’s been my mentality switch, and when you’re going through times like that [without scoring], it helps.”
Terry said he’s “really excited” now for the season ahead even as the Ducks’ continued retool is bound to bring about its own challenges. Like it or not, growing pains come with the domain for Terry, on the ice and at home. It’s the latter life, though, that truly brings Terry the most joy these days, even if — like his day job — there are highs and lows through which to wade.
“Fatherhood is harder than I ever thought it would be,” Terry admitted. “But I also love that guy more than I thought I could love something. So, it’s been pretty fun.”
VETERAN TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING DEFENSEMAN Mikhail Sergachev might appear soft-spoken.
But what he does say hits hard.
“I want to get to the top,” Sergachev said. “I want to be the best: on our team first, and then in the league.”
That’s exactly the mic drop mentality Tampa Bay needs from its burgeoning star. The 25-year-old blueliner was acquired by the Lightning in 2017 to eventually be where he is now — cresting their defensive depth chart as one of the team’s highest-paid players thanks to an eight-year, $68 million contract kicking in this season.
Sergachev doesn’t take the team’s commitment to him lightly. He produced the best season of his career across the board in 2022-23, tallying 10 goals and 64 points in 79 games, averaging a team-high 23 minutes, 49 seconds of ice time per game, and earning a significant role on the Lightning power play.
It was disappointing, then, for Sergachev — and the Lightning at large — to see how they came up short in a first-round playoff loss to Toronto. Tampa Bay’s run of back-to-back Stanley Cup victories, followed by another Cup Final appearance, set a high standard that Sergachev is determined not to let slip. Especially given the profound impact the team’s investment in his future has already had.
“I appreciate it a lot,” Sergachev said. “When they gave me an eight-year deal, like I don’t want to say I didn’t expect it, but I just felt that they trusted me and they believed in me, and it changed my perspective on a lot of things. It made me believe in myself more.”
What that translates to over the next few years is on Sergachev to create. It’s likely no coincidence the new pact coincided with Sergachev’s excellent season. The goal now is to recreate that success individually, and hope it also rubs off on the rest of his team.
“I understand things better now,” Sergachev said. “I signed a long-term deal. The team trusted me on the first power play [last season]. So, it’s a lot of responsibility going into this season. Every year, every summer, every training camp that I take, I have to focus on that [responsibility] and give it everything I have.”
ONE OF THE top rising stars in the league, Jason Robertson has a singular focus with the Dallas Stars this season.
And it’s echoing like a mantra: consistency.
“I don’t want to just be catching fire and then not really doing a whole lot later in the season,” Robertson said. “It’s just staying that same player I can be and having that high expectation to try to play the best I can offensively, but do it consistently and try to maintain the other aspects of the game as well at the same time.”
If Roberson’s goal-setting ability is anything like his goal-scoring one, then the Stars are in for a treat. Because their top-line winger is ready to fly even higher.
The 24-year-old was a behemoth on the ice in 2022-23, producing 46 goals and 109 points in 82 games to rank him seventh and sixth, respectively, overall in the NHL. For context, the only skaters who notched more points than Robertson were Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon.
But the postseason was a different story, as he scored just two goals and 10 assists in the opening two rounds (including no goals in seven games against the Kraken), before coming alive against Vegas in the conference finals.
Robertson talks about his game as a work in progress, and he’s dialed in on maintaining good habits.
“If I’m consistent in what I do and what I play, the numbers will take care of themselves,” he said. “That’s just what happens. You work hard, you don’t get complacent, then you know you’re going to get opportunities. You’re going to get chances. You play on too good of a team not to; too good of a roster not to get those opportunities. So, it’s up to me to just try to stick to that [mindset], keep working hard and don’t get complacent.”
The same could be said for the Stars overall. Dallas put together an 108-point season under first year head coach Pete DeBoer and advanced to the Western Conference finals. The Stars came up short there in a six-game loss to the eventual Cup champion Golden Knights, but the result has done nothing to curb Robertson’s enthusiasm for what Dallas can accomplish in the coming season.
“It’s winning it all,” he said. “That’s what you want to do. We have those expectations. We have the players, the coach that it takes the win. Everyone has a recipe to win. We’ve got a big forward group, great defensemen, an elite goalie. You have all those criteria that were checked off.
“So, we have high expectations this year, and we’re fortunate enough to where our GM [Jim Nill] has built this group well. And the young guys are going to step up and take control, like me and the younger guys. So, we’re excited.”
Here’s where Robertson will digress, though. Yes, as a fourth-year pro, there is a natural progression toward shouldering more locker room duties and being a good example. Just don’t anticipate Robertson breaking away from who he’s been all along. On and off the ice, Robertson’s moves have served him and the Stars well.
The right formula now is just generating more of what works — even more often.
“All I’ve got to do is keep working hard, keeping playing the right way and just lead by example,” he said. “I like to say I’m a leader. I have a big responsibility in myself to not put myself ahead of the team in any situation, so I think I’ve been doing a good job in that. I’m ready to get back at it.”
THERE’S WISDOM IN growing older as a person and a hockey player.
Capitals winger Tom Wilson can attest that’s the truth.
“You kind of learn to live in the moment,” Wilson said of getting deeper into his career. “You take it game by game. Right now, we have a really good group of guys in our room. Age obviously doesn’t really matter if everyone’s playing well and doing their thing and winning games. People like to look to the future and plan, but our job as players is to win each game, win every night, and if you do that, the rest will take care of itself.”
Ideally, Wilson would like to contribute more to the winning part this season than he was able to recently. The 29-year-old missed the first half of 2022-23 recovering from offseason ACL surgery. He made it back into the lineup by January and lasted a mere eight games before a blocked shot against Colorado caused a “small, small fracture” in an ankle that was big enough to sideline Wilson through mid-February.
Still, the winger was a productive player for Washington, producing 13 goals and 22 points in 33 games. And GM Brian MacLellan recognized Wilson’s value with a massive seven-year, $45.5 million contract extension that starts next season to carry Wilson through (presumably) the majority of his remaining NHL seasons.
But those extended absences last season were some of many that ultimately doomed the injury-plagued Capitals to a down season. Washington recorded the fourth-most man games lost amid ailments to Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie and John Carlson; it was no surprise by the March trade deadline to see MacLellan trading players away, torpedoing any lingering hope Washington had of making the playoffs.
Wilson says now he’s “feeling good; a lot better” than the previous offseason and used an extended summer to get his body back in the game, so to speak.
Next is trying to bring Washington back from the brink. The Capitals have a new head coach in Spencer Carbery, a milestone machine on a mission in Alex Ovechkin and, with a healthy Carlson, Backstrom and Wilson, some legitimate optimism for the year ahead.
That’s what Wilson will cling too, anyway. Even if the 2022-23 season ended with a thud, there’s reason to believe the coming campaign can open with a bang.
“I think [my goals] all revolve around team success,” Wilson said. “We want to get back to where we want to be. We want to have that winning culture and mentality that we’ve built for the last 10-15 years in Washington. And if I’m doing my job, if I’m playing well, I think it’ll help the team win games, and that’s the most important thing.”
And if Wilson has to take over a bigger role — whether on the ice or in the dressing room — he’s prepared to learn on the fly there, too.
“I’m pretty fortunate to have had so many leaders to look to, and now I’m in the middle of my career and in the second wave [to start standing up],” he said. “But those guys [like Ovechkin and Backstrom] are the best and I love having them around and just try and soak it all in when you can.”
FORGET THE CLICHED “roller-coaster ride” analogy.
For the past two years, Nashville Predators forward Filip Forsberg has been on a carnivalesque Tilt-A-Whirl, complete with thrilling highs and stomach-dropping lows.
Let’s recap: It was only in 2021-22 when Forsberg emerged with a breakout season, collecting 42 goals and 84 points in 69 games for a Predators team that defied expectations earning a postseason berth. Forsberg parlayed his success into a mammoth new deal with Nashville, avoiding free agency in the summer of 2022 by agreeing to an eight-year, $68 million extension.
The Predators — and Forsberg along with them — seemed well positioned to rise even further in 2022-23. Until the wheels fell off.
Instead of thriving out of the gate, Nashville immediately fell into a fight just to keep pace in the playoff race. The Predators were four points out of a wild-card spot in February when Forsberg — then the team’s second-leading scorer with 19 goals and 42 points in 50 games — suffered a concussion against Philadelphia.
Forsberg never returned for the Predators. The team’s alarming number of injuries — to him, Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen, and others — led to Nashville spiraling out of postseason contention from there.
The fallout came fast and furious. Head coach Jon Hynes was fired (and eventually replaced by Andrew Brunette). GM David Poile finalized his retirement, with Barry Trotz taking over. And Trotz wasted no time giving Nashville a face-lift, buying out Matt Duchene‘s contract, trading Johansen to Colorado and adding veterans such as Ryan O’Reilly, Gustav Nyquist and Luke Schenn in free agency.
It’s been 24 months of whiplash, basically. What Forsberg needs now is some rejuvenation — with a side of stability.
“You kind of have to see it that way,” he said about rebounding this season. “You miss 32 games [in 2022-23], you feel like you had a tough year. It might not have been as bad as it felt, but at the same time, you don’t play for half the season, it’s obvious you’re going to have to bounce back and try to find something to build off. I’m excited just to get a chance to be out there competing with my teammates again.”
The Predators’ locker room looks different than before, too. Forsberg is one of a few remaining veterans from Nashville’s lineup in 2021-22, a clear indication of how the organization has pivoted toward its up-and-comers (including Philip Tomasino, Cody Glass and Thomas Novak).
If Forsberg is wearied by all that change, he doesn’t show it. If anything, he’s attempting to flourish from it, and holds faith that he and the Predators can make the most of what awaits this season.
“I feel great. I’m excited about [what’s next],” he said. “I think our [retooling] has been done correctly, so to speak. Obviously, you don’t want to see any of your friends and teammates leave, but at least we’ve done a good job trying to replace them with other players, and I’m excited to get to know Coach Brunette as well.”
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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