India’s airstrikes on Pakistani-controlled Kashmir after last month’s deadly militant attack on the Indian-administered side of the disputed region have raised fears of a dangerous escalation in the conflict.

It is not yet known what specific weapons were used in Wednesday’s early morning strikes which Delhi said targeted “terrorist camps”, though Islamabad said civilian infrastructure, including mosques, was hit.

However, India is reported to have deployed Rafale jets equipped with SCALP air-to-ground cruise missiles.

The nuclear-armed neighbours have been boosting their military capabilities since they clashed in a series of border skirmishes in 2019.

As of 2024, India has 36 Rafale jets, eight two-seat variants and 28 single-seat variants, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

The aircraft were acquired under a 2016 inter-governmental agreement between India and France, which included a weapons package. This package featured MICA and SCALP missiles.

Between 2020 and 2024, around a third of India’s arms imports came from France, said the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian aircraft, including three Rafale jets, on Wednesday following the Indian attack.

If this was the case, the Pakistani military would have used surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). According to IISS, Pakistan has more than 200 SAMs. Although, for context, India has well over 800 across their armed forces.

How do India and Pakistan rank?

India’s overall military capability significantly exceeds that of Pakistan.

It ranks fourth in the world compared to Pakistan’s 12th place, according to Global Firepower’s index, which considers a range of factors to assess military strength.

In terms of personnel, India has 1,237,000 active personnel in its army, 75,000 in the navy and 149,900 air force.

Pakistan has fewer than half that with 560,000 active personnel in the army, 30,000 in the navy and 70,000 in the air force.

India’s armed forces twice the size of Pakistan’s

Sky’s security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke said: “The Indian forces are about double the size of Pakistan’s forces… if it came to a war, India will win.”

He added: “If it’s below the level of a war, if it’s some sort of military confrontation, then Pakistan might think it could get something out of it.”

Follow The World

Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday

Tap to follow

The two forces have similar nuclear capabilities. India has an estimated 180 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has around 170, according to US thinktank the Federation of American Scientists.

However, experts agree that it is unlikely that either side will use their nuclear powers at this stage.

Professor Clarke said: “Nuclear weapons would only be used by any country if its existence is at stake. Nothing that happens in Kashmir threatens the existence of Pakistan or India.”

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Cardinals have failed to reach the required two-thirds majority in their first vote to choose a new pope in the Vatican.

Black smoke emerged from the Sistine Chapel chimney at 8pm, indicating they had been unable to agree.

Crowds in St Peter’s Square had been kept waiting longer than expected and most were hoping for the white smoke that signals the arrival of a new pontiff.

Latest updates as conclave under way

There was only one vote today, but from Thursday the 133 cardinals will hold two votes in the morning and two in the afternoon until at least 89 pick the same name.

The conclave started on Wednesday afternoon after cardinals swore an oath of secrecy and the doors of the Sistine Chapel were shut to the outside world.

They have given up their phones and are cut off from the outside world until a new pope is chosen.

The most recent conclaves – for Pope Francis in 2013, Pope Benedict XVI in 2005 and Pope John Paul II in 1978 – all lasted less than three days.

The voting takes places beneath Michelangelo’s legendary frescoes and the chapel – normally a packed tourist site – has installed tight security.

It’s been swept for listening devices, signal jammers have been installed, and its windows have been covered to protect from spy drones.

Lead seals have also been put on 80 doors at the conclave site to stop people going in and out.

The cardinals will sleep and eat at the Casa Santa Marta, a guest house within the Vatican where Pope Francis lived, until the process is over.

They cardinals began Wednesday by taking mass, before a solemn two-by-two procession into the Sistine Chapel in the afternoon.

Dresses in their red garb, they chanted the Litany of the Saints and Veni Creator – a hymn imploring the saints to help them find a new leader.

They then each came forward to take an oath of secrecy, placing a hand on the gospel and also promising not to allow any outside influence.

The final piece of theatre was the Latin declaration “Extra omnes” (“everyone else out”) and Archbishop Diego Ravelli, an aide to the late pope, pushed the the doors shut.

Read more:
How does conclave work?
The key contenders for pope
Conclave writer says women priests ‘big issue’ for new pope

Conclave is beginning 16 days after Pope Francis’s death, which came after a long hospital stay with pneumonia.

Many experts believe it will come down to a choice between someone who will continue his progressive approach and a more conservative candidate.

Among the favourites is Luis Tagle, a cardinal who could become the first Asian pontiff, and who’s been likened to Pope Francis.

Two Italians are also seen as strong contenders: The Archbishop of Bologna, Matteo Zuppi, and the so-called “deputy pope” Pietro Parolin.

The pope’s identity is normally revealed soon after the white smoke emerges, when he steps onto the balcony to wave to the crowds in St Peter’s Square.

It’s hard not to view the motivating factor behind Vladimir Putin’s latest unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine as one of timing.

Starting today, the three-day truce coincides with Russia’s lavish celebrations to mark the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany.

The main event will be a huge military Victory Day parade on Red Square on Friday, where the Russian president will be welcoming more than two dozen world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed the ceasefire proposal as theatre, and a cynical ploy by Mr Putin to protect his parade, rather than human lives.

It’s certainly true that the Kremlin wants to put on a good show – not just for its guests but for the rest of the world.

The arrival of so many heads of state, including the leaders of Brazil, Egypt and Vietnam – is a major PR coup for Moscow, and a chance to show the West that its efforts to isolate Russia have failed.

Announcing the guestlist earlier this week, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov claimed it was “an indicator of Russia’s growing authority in the world”.

With that in mind, a Ukrainian attack on the parade would be seriously embarrassing for Mr Putin.

In theory it could happen – Kyiv hasn’t committed to the ceasefire, instead calling for a 30-day pause, and has said it can’t guarantee the safety of foreign dignitaries who are visiting Russia – but I think it’s highly unlikely.

Read more:
Hegseth order ‘caught White House off guard’
Moment Ukrainian drone hits high-rise building in Russia

It would risk damaging relations with Donald Trump, whose stance regarding peace talks appears to have shifted recently in Kyiv’s favour.

But Ukraine is still doing its best to disrupt the preparations here. Multiple drone attacks over the past few days have forced Moscow’s airports to repeatedly suspend operations, just as foreign leaders have been flying in.

Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vucic reportedly took 10 hours to reach Moscow after his flight had to stopover in Azerbaijan. While more drones targeted Moscow just before Mr Xi touched down on Wednesday afternoon.

It’s an attempt by Ukraine to humiliate Mr Putin, and to convey to his guests how much it disapproves of their visit, which it regards as a show of support for Russia’s invasion.