‘Give me the ball’: Inside Justin Steele’s long climb to the top of the Cubs’ rotation
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
The National League Cy Young award likely slipped from his reach over his past two outings, but Justin Steele has plenty to pitch for in the final week of the MLB regular season.
With the Chicago Cubs holding a one-game lead for the National League’s final wild-card spot, the biggest two-start stretch of their new ace’s career will begin when Steele takes the mound against the potent Atlanta Braves on Tuesday night. His final start is scheduled to come on the season’s final day, against another division winner, the Milwaukee Brewers, in what could be an all-or-nothing conclusion to the Cubs’ playoff chase.
“That’s what it’s all about,” Steele told ESPN recently. “I love pitching in big games. Give me the ball.”
The 28 year-old’s career arc from being selected in the fifth round of the 2014 MLB draft to becoming the pitcher Chicago trusts most with its season on the line has been a slow progression — and that kind of declaration didn’t seem likely just a few years ago, when Steele finished the 2019 season with an 0-6 record and 5.59 ERA for Double-A Tennessee.
After three promising seasons in the low minors to start his career, Steele’s 2017 season was interrupted by Tommy John surgery, and like many pitchers coming back from the procedure, he struggled to find his command when he returned. The Cubs showed faith by sticking with Steele despite that ugly stat line, and things finally began to click in 2020 at the team’s alternate site for minor league players during MLB’s pandemic-shortened season.
The secret to Steele’s breakthrough? He perfected his now-signature pitch, a four-seam fastball that has baffled hitters unable to lay off its unique movement.
“Everyone says he throws two pitches, but those two pitches are like five pitches,” Cubs closer Adbert Alzolay said. “That’s why hitters are so confused when they go up to the plate.”
Steele technically possesses a five-pitch arsenal, but his success has come by throwing two of those pitches more than 96% of the time. Paired with a slider he uses to keep hitters guessing, Steele goes to his four-seam fastball 62.7% of the time. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Steele’s fastball usage increased from 52 percent to 62 percent in the second half of 2022. His slider from 24 percent to 34 percent. It doesn’t leave much room for other pitches.
Any fear of his approach becoming too predictable and allowing hitters to sit on his four-seamer is quickly alleviated with a look at the results: Steele’s fastball ranks first in home run percentage (1.5%), second in barrel percentage (13%) and third in average exit velocity (86.9%).
“It’s rare in this game to see a guy simplify,” Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said. “It’s so refreshing to see a young guy go that way. So many guys come up and think, ‘I have to add a cutter, I have to add another pitch.’ He’s gone the other way.”
It’s not just that MLB-leading usage rate that makes his four-seamer stand out: In a time when a record number of pitchers are lighting up the radar gun with triple-digit heat, Steele’s best pitch averages just 91.8 mph.
“He’s got a short arm and hides it with a cross body delivery,” Pirates outfielder Jack Suwinski said after striking out against Steele. “It’ll have some different shape to it. Some cut. Some sink. Some life at the top as well. It’s harder than it [the radar gun] says it is.”
After declining a commitment to his home state school of Southern Miss., Steele signed as the 139th overall pick in the 2014 draft. Among current Cubs, only fellow pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Azolay have been in the organization longer than Steele.
While Hendricks was already pitching in the majors, Steele and Alzolay became close friends in the low minors as they watched Chicago go from rebuilding to winning a World Series from afar years before getting their chance to pitch for a playoff-contending Cubs team.
“There’s nothing that fires me up more than closing a game that Justin Steele has started,” Alzolay said.
The bond between the two pitchers strengthened even more during their time together at Chicago’s alt site in 2020, when Alzolay was often the encouraging voice Steele needed as he tried to remake his career.
“All you need to do is throw strikes,” Alzolay recalls telling Steele. “They don’t know where the ball is going to go. They don’t know if it’s going to sink, cut or go up.”
During his rise from an afterthought in the Cubs’ plans to pitching at the top of the rotation, Steele has had a chance to receive advice from the man whose footsteps he’s trying to follow as the team’s written-in-pen Game 1 playoff series starter. After watching one of Steele’s starts on TV midway through last season, former Cub Jon Lester jumped on his phone to offer advice to Steele through manager and former catcher David Ross.
Not long after receiving Lester’s advice, Steele’s career took off. Since July 22, 2022, he’s 17-7 with a 2.64 ERA, second lowest in baseball during that time frame.
“One of the main things [Lester emphasized] was establishing the four-seam command, down-and-in to righties on that inner third,” Steele said. “Very helpful advice. I watched a ton of Cubs games and always watched him pitch. I learned a lot.”
Steele has already thrown 49 more innings than his previous season high, but he has allowed six runs in each of his past two starts, losses to the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates during the Cubs’ 1-7 stretch in mid-September that denied them the chance to break away in the race for the final postseason spot. Could fatigue be setting in at the most inopportune time?
“I don’t think so,” Steel said. “I feel great. My body feels great. I feel the way I’m supposed to feel.”
Next, his greatest test will come under the bright lights of a playoff race against two squads already assured of doing what the Cubs are still striving for: reaching October.
“It’s what I want,” Steele said. “The ball in the biggest moments.”
While fans in Edmonton and Dallas are always singing about how they have friends in low places, only one of them has the high ground in the Western Conference finals. And that’s the Oilers after their 6-1 win Sunday in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead.
With the series tied heading into Sunday, the objective for Game 3 was to gain a firm grasp of the conference finals, and the Oilers did just that by having five players with multipoint performances. As for the Stars, losing Game 3 left them trailing a series for the second time this postseason, with the only other such occurrence coming after Game 1 against the Colorado Avalanche in the first round.
Now that the Oilers are in control of the series, what does it mean for them going forward? What must the Stars do differently ahead of Game 4 for them to return home tied rather than a game away from elimination? Ryan S. Clark and Greg Wyshynski examine those questions while delving into what lies ahead for two teams that not only faced each other in the conference finals last season but between them have been involved in every conference final since 2020.
Edmonton Oilers
Grade: A
Much could change between now and whenever the playoffs end. But for now, the argument could be made that this was the most important playoff game the Oilers have had this postseason.
The Oilers have had numerous strong performances, such as Game 3 against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round or their final two games against the Vegas Golden Knights in the conference semifinals. But what made the Oilers’ performance in Game 3 against Dallas arguably their most important was that they found a balance between being difficult in the defensive zone while not relying on a shutout to accomplish that objective.
The Stars finished with 37 shots, 13 high-danger chances in 5-on-5 play and scored only once. Connor McDavid has repeatedly stressed that the Oilers can play defense, and that has been made clear over their past five games. But Sunday proved they didn’t need Stuart Skinner or their defensive structure to blank an opponent to win. — Ryan S. Clark
Dallas Stars
Grade: C+
The final score doesn’t reflect the majority of this game, which Dallas coach Pete DeBoer can mine for positives among the many (many) negatives and some mitigating circumstances. Having Roope Hintz warm up but not be able to go because of the foot injury he suffered from a Darnell Nurse slash in Game 2? That’s deflating. Having the on-ice officials miss a delay of game call on Brett Kulak in the first period only to have Evan Bouchard open the scoring 10 seconds later? Also deflating.
So it’s to the Stars’ credit that they got to their game at 5-on-5 in Game 3 better than they have in any game of the series, at least before Edmonton ran up the score in the third. The results weren’t there and a loss is a loss — and a loss by this margin is difficult to stomach — but their second period and the performances from some of their slumbering depth players give the Stars at least a glimmer.
However, there’s no question Edmonton has this thing in well in-hand and the Stars have to find a way to solve Skinner, which is not something I thought I’d be writing at this stage of the postseason. — Greg Wyshynski
Three Stars of Game 3
Two goals and an assist for his seventh career multigoal playoff game. Hyman’s second goal was the Oilers’ fourth off the rush, the most in one game by any team this postseason. Hyman also was plus-5 Sunday.
Bouchard scored his sixth goal of the postseason and these two were on the ice for the first two Edmonton goals. At 5-on-5 this postseason, the Oilers are outscoring their opponents 7-1, and 5-0 in this series, when Bouchard and Kulak are on the ice.
0:48
Connor McDavid restores Oilers’ 2-goal lead
Connor McDavid finds the back of the net to restore the Oilers’ two-goal lead vs. the Stars.
3. Connor McDavid
C, Oilers
For all the talk about the lack of goals from the best hockey player in the world (which was odd because he had 20 points in 13 games and was a plus-7 entering Game 3 despite having only three goals), McDavid punched out a pair of tucks for his sixth career multigoal playoff game. Also, seeing McDavid with the puck barreling toward the net on a 3-on-1 is nightmare fuel for opponents. — Arda Ćcal
Players to watch in Game 4
Zach Hyman
LW, Oilers
To go from 16 goals last postseason to just three goals entering Game 3 of the conference finals is one way to assess Hyman. Another is to realize that he’s been the most physical player on a team that is among the tallest and heaviest in the NHL.
Hyman came into Game 3 leading the NHL with 99 hits. He remained physical Sunday by leading the way with six hits in a game that saw the Oilers continue their punishing style with 47. But to then see Hyman score two goals and finish with three points in addition to that physicality? It once again adds to the narrative that the Oilers might not only have more dimensions than last year’s team, they could be better than the team that finished Stanley Cup runner-up in 2024. — Clark
0:53
Zach Hyman’s 2nd goal puts Oilers up 4
Zach Hyman taps home his second goal of the game to put the Oilers up 5-1 vs. the Stars.
This is the first two-game losing streak for the Dallas goaltender in the playoffs. A lot of what happened in Game 3 wasn’t necessarily on him — a Connor McDavid beauty and a Zach Hyman breakaway were among the Edmonton tallies — but outside of the third period of Game 1, he’s not been a difference-maker in this series. Oettinger came into the game leading the playoffs with 5.58 goals saved above expected, according to Stathletes. The Stars have been able to depend on him as a slump-breaker. But this is his third game with a save percentage south of .900 in the series. As the Stars try to build on some positives from this game, they need Otter to provide the foundation for it — and in the process, silence those “U.S. backup!” chants from the Oilers fans. — Wyshynski
Big questions for Game 4
Are the Oilers about to do to the Stars what they did to the Golden Knights?
Simply put, the Oilers are where hope goes to die. Teams in a championship window that have yet to win a title are always being judged on their evolution. What the Oilers did to the Stars a year ago in the conference finals by winning the last three games showed that they could close out a series after trailing. This postseason Edmonton has shown a calculated and methodical coldness when it comes to putting away opponents.
The Golden Knights won Game 3 on a last-second goal to create the belief they may have found an opening. They didn’t score again for the rest of the playoffs after being in the top five of goals per game throughout the regular season. Breaking out for six goals to open the series seemed to be a sign the Stars may have found an opening. Since then? They’ve scored only once in the last six periods while facing questions about what’s happened to another team that went from being in the top five in goals per game in the regular season. — Clark
Can Dallas make Edmonton uncomfortable at all?
Our colleague Mark Messier made this point between periods of Game 3: The Stars have yet to do anything to get McDavid or Leon Draisaitl off their games. That extends to the rest of the Oilers. Outside of an anomalous run of three power-play goals in the third period of Game 1, there have been precious few instances of the Stars carrying play for long stretches or putting a scare into Edmonton at 5-on-5.
They had that for a bit in Game 3 with a dominant second period: plus-14 in shot attempts, plus-11 in scoring chances and a 10-1 advantage in high-danger shot attempts. But they were digging out of a 2-0 hole, only managed to get one goal of their own on the board and then McDavid stuck a dagger in them with 19 seconds left in the second.
The Stars need a lead. They need zone time. They need to get their rush game going: Skinner had a .897 save percentage on shots off the rush entering the game. Edmonton is playing with a champion’s confidence. Dallas has to find a way to inject a little doubt into its opponent or this series is going to end quickly. — Wyshynski
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