Long COVID risks are ‘distorted by flawed research’, study finds
The risk of contracting long COVID may have been exaggerated due to flawed research, leading to unnecessarily high levels of anxiety about suffering from it, a new study has suggested.
“Major flaws” in the literature on the condition likely exaggerated the true threat of contracting it, the new research argues.
For most people with COVID-19, they feel better within days or weeks, but some can have symptoms for longer than three months.
Fatigue, brain fog, chest pain and shortness of breath are reported as symptoms by those who have long COVID – which is officially known as post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC).
Now, researchers from the UK, along with Denmark and the USA, say “many scientific publications” overestimated the prevalence of long COVID because of “overly broad definitions, lack of control groups, inappropriate control groups, and other methodological flaws”.
Instead, the authors of the new study argue that the symptoms are common among upper respiratory viruses.
The research team said this lack of definition could end up leading to an increase in healthcare spending and more anxiety, as well as misdiagnoses and a diversion of funds.
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Published in the British Medical Journal’s Evidence-Based Medicine, the new paper looked at the definition of the condition by several global health organisations – including the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the World Health Organisation (WHO).
The study argues none of the definitions “requires a causal link” to COVID-19 infection, adding any symptoms that happen after a confirmed or suspected infection could be considered consistent with long COVID.
“In general, in the scientific literature, imprecise definitions have resulted in more than 200 symptoms being associated with the condition termed long COVID,” the researchers said.
Researchers also said the studies in the early stages of the pandemic are more likely to have included fewer patients with mild or no symptoms, which could have led to a sampling bias.
They said: “Our analysis indicates that, in addition to including appropriately matched controls, there is a need for better case definitions and more stringent (long COVID) criteria, which should include continuous symptoms after confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and take into consideration baseline characteristics, including physical and mental health, which may contribute to an individual’s post-COVID experience.”
Research in the future should include properly matched groups, the paper added, as well as “sufficient” follow-up time following infection.
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The study’s authors also want to see “internationally established” diagnostic criteria and called for future studies to avoid “umbrella terms” and instead “narrowly define” the symptoms.
“Ultimately, biomedicine must seek to aid all people who are suffering,” the research team added. “In order to do so, the best scientific methods and analysis must be applied.
“Inappropriate definitions and flawed methods do not serve those whom medicine seeks to help.
“Improving standards of evidence generation is the ideal method to take long COVID seriously, improve outcomes, and avoid the risks of misdiagnosis and inappropriate treatment.”
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However, Dr Adam Jacobs, senior director of biostatistical science at Premier Research, said although the paper “makes some sensible points” it goes on “to draw some odd conclusions”.
He added: “It is, of course, inevitable that much of this literature is imperfect.
“Long COVID simply didn’t exist four years ago, so researchers have had to get to grips with a new and challenging topic at top speed.
“It is, therefore, not surprising that different studies have different estimates of the prevalence of long COVID, as studies have used different case definitions, different populations etc.”
Dr Jacobs said a survey by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which was discontinued in March, found that 1.9 million people in the UK had long COVID.
He said this was a “staggeringly high” number.
“We don’t know how long those people will remain ill,” he added. “If we are lucky, most of them will be healthy again within a year or two.
“If we are unlucky, a large number of them may have a permanent disability.”
Fresh appeals have been made for information on what would have been the 20th birthday of Ellis Cox, who was shot dead in Liverpool last June.
A number of people have been arrested in connection with the murder at Liver Industrial Estate, but no one has been charged yet.
The 19-year-old’s family and police have paid tribute to him and called for those with information to come forward.
He was shot in the back after a confrontation between his friends and another group of up to three males on Sunday 23 June.
Ellis Cox who was shot dead in June 2024. Pic: Merseyside Police
His mother Carolyn paid tribute in an appeal to coincide with what would have been his 20th birthday.
“He was so kind… so laid back, so calm, so mature for his age. And he was just funny. Very funny.
“He was my baby… no mum should have to bury a child. He was my life. And I don’t know what to do without him.”
Mum Carolyn Cox (left) and aunt Julie O’Toole (right) are looking for answers
Meanwhile, his aunt Julie O’Toole said he was “the sort of person I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone to say anything negative about. He was loyal, fiercely loyal… everything was about his family”.
To pay tribute to Ellis, Liverpool City Council will be lighting up the Cunard Building and Liverpool Town Hall in orange on Saturday.
DCI Steve McGrath does not believe Ellis was involved in criminality
Detective Chief Inspector Steve McGrath, the senior investigating officer, spoke about the information gathered so far, six months on from Mr Cox’s murder.
“I’m satisfied that the group that he was with was probably the target… and I would say that’s got something in relation to do with localised drug dealing in that area. But Ellis had no involvement in that whatsoever,” he said.
He added that police are looking for “really significant pieces of evidence now”, including “trying to recover the firearm that was used in relation to this, looking to recover the bikes that were used by the offenders”.
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Mrs Cox also appealed for people to come forward with information.
“If you know anything, don’t let us get to [his] next birthday and still know nothing.
“We need to get justice for Ellis. And we need to get the people who took him from us off the streets.”
UK
Reward of £20,000 offered to identify parents of three siblings abandoned as babies over eight years
A £20,000 reward is being offered for information that leads to the identification of the parents of three siblings found abandoned in London over eight years.
The Metropolitan Police said that despite more than 450 hours of CCTV being reviewed, the parents of the three children, known as Elsa, Roman and Harry, remain unidentified.
However, it is believed their mother has lived in an area of east London “over the past six years”.
Elsa was believed to be less than an hour old when she was found by a dog walker on 18 January last year, in East Ham, east London.
In the months that followed it was found that she had two siblings who were also abandoned in similar circumstances, in the same area of London, in 2017 and 2019.
On Saturday, police said the independent group Crimestoppers had offered a £20,000 reward for information passed to the charity, which will expire on 18 April.
Detective Inspector Jamie Humm, of the Met’s child abuse investigation team, said: “We have carried out extensive inquiries over the past year to try and locate Elsa’s parents.
Baby Roman. Pic: Met Police/PA
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“This has involved reviewing over 450 hours of CCTV and completing a full DNA structure of the mother.
“We have serious concerns for the wellbeing of the parents, especially the mother, and are continuing to work closely with Newham Council and appeal for the public’s help for information.
“I believe that someone in the area will have been aware of the mother’s pregnancies and that within the community there may be (or) have been concerns for this mother’s welfare.
“Thanks to the DNA work of forensic colleagues, police will be able to eliminate any unconnected person quickly and easily, as such I would ask you to contact police with confidence.”
The baby was found at the junction of Greenway and High Street South in Newham. Pic: PA
Elsa was found wrapped in a towel in a reusable shopping bag, of which police have also released a new image, and was kept warm by the dog walker. She was uninjured.
Police said at the time that it was “highly likely” that she was born after a “concealed pregnancy”.
The Boots bag in which Baby Elsa was found abandoned by a dog walker in Newham on 18 January 2024. Pic: Met Police/PA
The BBC reported that at an initial court hearing, East London Family Court was told it took doctors three hours to record Elsa’s temperature because of the cold, and the Met Office said that temperatures dropped to as low as -4C on the night she was found.
Hospital staff named her Elsa in a reference to the character from the film Frozen.
The police investigation into the identity of the children’s parents continues, and anyone with information is asked to call police on 101 or post @MetCC ref Operation Wolcott.
People can also contact Crimestoppers anonymously at any time on 0800 555 111 or via Crimestoppers-uk.org.
Fresh appeals have been made for information on what would have been the 20th birthday of Ellis Cox, who was shot dead in Liverpool last June.
A number of people have been arrested in connection with the murder at Liver Industrial Estate, but no one has been charged yet.
The 19-year-old’s family and police have paid tribute to him and called for those with information to come forward.
He was shot in the back after a confrontation between his friends and another group of up to three males on Sunday 23 June.
Ellis Cox who was shot dead in June 2024. Pic: Merseyside Police
His mother Carolyn paid tribute in an appeal to coincide with what would have been his 20th birthday.
“He was so kind… so laid back, so calm, so mature for his age. And he was just funny. Very funny.
“He was my baby… no mum should have to bury a child. He was my life. And I don’t know what to do without him.”
Mum Carolyn Cox (left) and aunt Julie O’Toole (right) are looking for answers
Ellis’ mum described him as ‘kind” and “funny. Pic: Merseyside Police
Meanwhile, his aunt Julie O’Toole said he was “the sort of person I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone to say anything negative about. He was loyal, fiercely loyal… everything was about his family”.
To pay tribute to Ellis, Liverpool City Council will be lighting up the Cunard Building and Liverpool Town Hall in orange on Saturday.
DCI Steve McGrath does not believe Ellis was involved in criminality
Detective Chief Inspector Steve McGrath, the senior investigating officer, spoke about the information gathered so far, six months on from Mr Cox’s murder.
“I’m satisfied that the group that he was with was probably the target… and I would say that’s got something in relation to do with localised drug dealing in that area. But Ellis had no involvement in that whatsoever,” he said.
He added that police are looking for “really significant pieces of evidence now”, including “trying to recover the firearm that was used in relation to this, looking to recover the bikes that were used by the offenders”.
Read more from Sky News:
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Mrs Cox also appealed for people to come forward with information.
“If you know anything, don’t let us get to [his] next birthday and still know nothing.
“We need to get justice for Ellis. And we need to get the people who took him from us off the streets.”
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