Long COVID risks are ‘distorted by flawed research’, study finds

Published

1 year ago

September 26, 2023

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The risk of contracting long COVID may have been exaggerated due to flawed research, leading to unnecessarily high levels of anxiety about suffering from it, a new study has suggested.

“Major flaws” in the literature on the condition likely exaggerated the true threat of contracting it, the new research argues.

For most people with COVID-19, they feel better within days or weeks, but some can have symptoms for longer than three months.

Fatigue, brain fog, chest pain and shortness of breath are reported as symptoms by those who have long COVID – which is officially known as post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC).

Now, researchers from the UK, along with Denmark and the USA, say “many scientific publications” overestimated the prevalence of long COVID because of “overly broad definitions, lack of control groups, inappropriate control groups, and other methodological flaws”.

Instead, the authors of the new study argue that the symptoms are common among upper respiratory viruses.

The research team said this lack of definition could end up leading to an increase in healthcare spending and more anxiety, as well as misdiagnoses and a diversion of funds.

Concerns about too many symptoms and no required link to COVID

Published in the British Medical Journal’s Evidence-Based Medicine, the new paper looked at the definition of the condition by several global health organisations – including the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the World Health Organisation (WHO).

The study argues none of the definitions “requires a causal link” to COVID-19 infection, adding any symptoms that happen after a confirmed or suspected infection could be considered consistent with long COVID.

“In general, in the scientific literature, imprecise definitions have resulted in more than 200 symptoms being associated with the condition termed long COVID,” the researchers said.

Researchers also said the studies in the early stages of the pandemic are more likely to have included fewer patients with mild or no symptoms, which could have led to a sampling bias.

They said: “Our analysis indicates that, in addition to including appropriately matched controls, there is a need for better case definitions and more stringent (long COVID) criteria, which should include continuous symptoms after confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and take into consideration baseline characteristics, including physical and mental health, which may contribute to an individual’s post-COVID experience.”

Research in the future should include properly matched groups, the paper added, as well as “sufficient” follow-up time following infection.

The study’s authors also want to see “internationally established” diagnostic criteria and called for future studies to avoid “umbrella terms” and instead “narrowly define” the symptoms.

“Ultimately, biomedicine must seek to aid all people who are suffering,” the research team added. “In order to do so, the best scientific methods and analysis must be applied.

“Inappropriate definitions and flawed methods do not serve those whom medicine seeks to help.

“Improving standards of evidence generation is the ideal method to take long COVID seriously, improve outcomes, and avoid the risks of misdiagnosis and inappropriate treatment.”

Study criticised for ‘some odd conclusions’

However, Dr Adam Jacobs, senior director of biostatistical science at Premier Research, said although the paper “makes some sensible points” it goes on “to draw some odd conclusions”.

He added: “It is, of course, inevitable that much of this literature is imperfect.

“Long COVID simply didn’t exist four years ago, so researchers have had to get to grips with a new and challenging topic at top speed.

“It is, therefore, not surprising that different studies have different estimates of the prevalence of long COVID, as studies have used different case definitions, different populations etc.”

Dr Jacobs said a survey by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which was discontinued in March, found that 1.9 million people in the UK had long COVID.

He said this was a “staggeringly high” number.

“We don’t know how long those people will remain ill,” he added. “If we are lucky, most of them will be healthy again within a year or two.

“If we are unlucky, a large number of them may have a permanent disability.”

UK

M4 and M48 closed after human remains found

Published

3 hours ago

February 23, 2025

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M4 and M48 closed after human remains found

Two motorways have been shut after human remains were found on the road.

Several drivers reported a body on the carriageway between junctions 20 and 21 of the M4 – between Almondsbury and Awkley – at about 6.40pm this evening.

The body is believed to be that of a man in his forties, whose next of kin have been told.

A police investigation to establish how the person came to be on the motorway continues.

Parts of the M4 and M48 motorways near Bristol are likely to remain closed until the early hours of Sunday morning, Avon and Somerset Police said.

In a statement, the force said: “Police are keen to hear from anyone who was travelling along that stretch of the M4 has any relevant information or dashcam footage.”

The road closures were likely to cause significant delays in and out of Wales tonight, with closures starting on the English side of the Prince of Wales Bridge and the Severn Bridge.

National Highways said the M4 is shut in both directions between junctions 20 and 21, while the M48 eastbound is closed from junction 1 near Aust.

The links from the M5 junction 15 south to the M4 junction 20 west, and the M5 junction 16 north to M4 junction 20 west were also closed.

UK

Starmer asks US to stand by Ukraine with security guarantee as bad peace deal would be ‘disaster’ for all

Published

4 hours ago

February 23, 2025

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Starmer asks US to stand by Ukraine with security guarantee as bad peace deal would be 'disaster' for all

Sir Keir Starmer has urged Donald Trump to stand by Ukraine with a security guarantee as he warned a bad peace deal would be a “disaster for everyone”.

The prime minister is due to meet the US president for talks in Washington DC next week amid fragile relations between America and Europe after Mr Trump launched a verbal attack on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The US president called Ukraine’s leader a “dictator” on Wednesday and later said Sir Keir and French President Emmanuel Macron, both of whom will visit the White House in the coming days, “haven’t done anything” to end the war.

Sir Keir said a good peace “can only be won through strength” and Ukraine “must have a voice in negotiations about its future”.

And he warned that a “peace deal which does not stop Putin from attacking again would be a disaster for everyone”.

Writing in The Sun on Sunday, he said Kyiv needs strong security guarantees “so the peace will last” and America “must be part of that guarantee”.

This could mean providing air defence and a promise that the US will come to the aid of a NATO country if Russia attacks them, the paper reported.

So far, talks aimed at ending the war have been taking place between US and Russian delegations in Saudi Arabia, which have not included the Ukrainians.

UK Defence Secretary John Healey has said “any negotiations about Ukraine cannot happen without Ukraine. We all want the fighting to end, but an insecure peace risks more war”.

‘Turn the screws’ on Russia

The third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is on Monday.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy has said he will unveil new sanctions to “turn the screws” on Russia on Monday to coincide with the anniversary.

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Sir Keir also said the UK must increase its defence spending and play a bigger role in NATO.

And he is open to British troops playing a role in any European force in Ukraine after a peace agreement.

He added: “This is not something I say lightly.”

Sir Keir, along with other European allies and UK opposition parties, has backed Mr Zelensky as a “democratically elected leader”.

Also, Washington has warned that Europe must shoulder more of the cost of its own security.

Sir Keir is expected to use his upcoming trip to the US to confirm a timeline to raise UK defence spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in a bid to ease tensions.

It comes amid pressure from defence chiefs and opposition critics including Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who wrote to the prime minister on Saturday demanding he set out a plan for meeting the target.

:: Education secretary Bridget Phillipson, campaigner for global health and education Sarah Brown, and shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge will be discussing all the latest political stories in the UK and around the world on the Trevor Phillips on Sunday show on Sky News from 8.30am

UK

Girl, 3, dies after tram and van crash in Manchester city centre

Published

15 hours ago

February 22, 2025

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Girl, 3, dies after tram and van crash in Manchester city centre

A three-year-old girl has died after a collision between a tram and a van in Manchester city centre.

The girl was taken to hospital but died from her injuries, Greater Manchester Police (GMP) said.

“No arrests have been made and inquiries are ongoing,” the force said.

The child was a pedestrian and was not travelling in either the tram or van, GMP said.

The fatal collision happened on Mosley Street shortly before 10am, a Transport for Greater Manchester (TfGM) spokesperson said.

“All of our thoughts are with her family and loved ones at this incredibly difficult time. We are supporting police with their investigation,” a statement said.

A North West Ambulance Service spokesperson said two ambulances, a rapid response vehicle and two air ambulance crews attended the scene.

TfGM said there was continued disruption across the Metrolink after the incident and advised people to check the Bee Network website and app for the latest travel information.

Manchester‘s Bee Network said: “Due to a road traffic collision on Mosley Street in the city centre, no tram services are operating between St Peter’s Square and Piccadilly Gardens.”

An X post from GMP’s traffic officers said: “Our officers are currently in attendance at a collision, involving a tram and another vehicle in Manchester city centre.

“We are presently trying to establish the circumstances however we envisage there will be a lengthy closure of surrounding streets near to St Peters Square.”