US gov’t messed up my $250K Bitcoin price prediction: Tim Draper, Hall of Flame
Tim Draper is a prominent venture capitalist, the founder of Draper University and the creator of the Meet The Drapers television series. He invested early in Tesla, SpaceX and Coinbase and has 254,000 followers on X.
“Let me get my second prediction to actually happen, and then we’ll move on to other predictions,” Tim Draper tells Hall of Flame, refusing to be drawn on price predictions for XRP and Ethereum.
This makes sense, given it’s been six years since he forecast that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by 2022.
Spoiler alert: It didn’t.
Which is not to say it won’t happen eventually, as Draper has been pretty far-sighted in the past.
Back in 2014, Draper scooped up around 30,000 Bitcoin for $19 million after the U.S. Marshals took down Silk Road. Fast forward to today, and those Bitcoin have increased 4,165% in value to be worth a whopping $810.5 million.
Around the same time, he made a prediction that Bitcoin would reach $10,000 in three years, and lo and behold, it hit that mark in 2017.
Draper explains that he only dropped the $250,000 prediction because people kept asking after he totally nailed his first Bitcoin price guess.
“The only reason I’ve given the second prediction was that the first one was so good. I had a lot of pressure to put another one out there,” Draper declares.
He has politely requested a deadline extension on Bitcoin reaching a quarter of a million, with a timeline that would give a university lecturer a heart attack.
“Give me until the end of June next year,” he says.
Draper accuses the U.S. government of messing up his price prediction. He had expected the growth of blockchain to be reminiscent of the internet era, similar to when he made his earlier investments in companies like Hotmail and Skype.
He emphasizes the significant benefit that the United States reaped by maintaining a hands-off approach to overregulating the internet.
“I expected a much more light touch, the way Bill Clinton was with the internet; they said, hey, we got the internet! We regulated the internet, and Bill Clinton smartly left it alone, and it was fantastic for the whole world.”
Investing Alpha
Despite the media coverage, Draper doesn’t spend his days making predictions; in fact, his schedule is quite packed.
At 65 years old, he remains highly active, renowned as a serial investor who chucked cash early in companies like Tesla, SpaceX, Coinbase, and, well … Theranos.
He enjoys playing basketball because it energizes him and puts him in an investment mindset.
“When I play basketball, I’m thinking about how I can get the defender to move one way, and then I’ll move another,” he explains.
Draper claims he possesses alpha instincts both on the basketball court and in the investment world.
“I’m very aggressive; if I see something I like, I go right after it,” he says.
“I guess as an investor, I invest like a chess move because I’m always evaluating not just the entrepreneur or the idea. But what happens if it’s successful? how great could it be? What does the world look like then?”
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What led to Twitter Fame?
Draper started with a very modest Twitter following.
“I think I had one Twitter follower, and it was my mother,” he jokes.
While you might assume that one of Draper’s investments or media appearances helped his following to skyrocket, he describes his growth as very natural, attributing it to the content he has been consistently posting over the years, which has kept people coming back for more.
He is proud of how “truly organic” his following is.
“I think I have the most steady increase of Twitter followers of any influencer,” he declares.
What type of content can people expect?
Draper isn’t here to clutter up his followers’ feeds with nonsense.
He’s all about adding a little sprinkle of value to their lives, and he sticks to only posting about three times a week.
“I tend to post where it’s something I feel like people should see or where one of my startups has done something extraordinary, and I want to promote them,” he explains.
What content does Tim Draper like?
Within the 2,400 accounts he follows on Twitter, he relies on a select group of trusted people to keep him informed about the crypto industry.
Among his trusted crew are Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen and Silicon Valley investors Brad and Bart Stephens.
Tim Draper predictions
Draper is backing his 250,000 Bitcoin prediction so hard that if it doesn’t hit, he’ll bow out of predictions altogether.
“If it’s not $250,000 or higher, then don’t listen to me ever again on that kind of prediction,” he laughs.
When questioned about the chances of a Bitcoin ETF getting approved, he doesn’t sound hopeful.
“It might have to wait for [Republican candidate] Nikki Haley to be president,” he declares.
“Maybe it’s the cushy relationship they have with banks, maybe it’s the fact that they have uncertainty about it. Maybe a lot of our government is pretty old, maybe they’re just out of touch. But they’re missing something very, very important for the good of society, and I’m hoping they all come around.”
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Politics
Kemi Badenoch accuses Sir Keir Starmer of ‘lying’ about Peter Mandelson prior to sacking him
Kemi Badenoch has accused Sir Keir Starmer of “lying to the whole country” about what he knew regarding Peter Mandelson’s correspondence with Jeffrey Epstein.
Lord Mandelson was this week stripped of his position as ambassador to the US amid fresh scrutiny over his years-long friendship with the convicted paedophile.
The prime minister initially defended the Labour peer but removed him from his post on Thursday after newly seen emails revealed he sent messages of support to Epstein even as he faced jail for sex offences in 2008.
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Lord Mandelson – the unanswered questions
The Times has now reported that Downing Street and the Foreign Office were aware of the emails on Tuesday – a day before Sir Keir gave Lord Mandelson his backing at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs).
In a post on X, Conservative leader Ms Badenoch wrote: “Looks like the Prime Minister and Labour MPs spent the week lying to the whole country about what they knew regarding Mandelson’s involvement with convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.”
She continued: “If No 10 had those emails for 48 hours before acting, it means he lied at PMQs and ministers lied again about new additional information. These are yet more errors of judgment.
“The Prime Minister has very serious questions to answer. The only way to clear this up is full transparency about who knew what, and when.”
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Sources said Sir Keir was not aware of the contents of the emails when he told MPs he had “confidence” in Lord Mandelson.
A media enquiry outlining details of the messages between Lord Mandelson and Epstein was sent to the Foreign Office on Tuesday, and passed on to Number 10.
Sir Oliver Robbins, the permanent under-secretary at the Foreign Office, asked Lord Mandelson about the emails on Tuesday, but did not receive a response until the following day.
Sir Keir is understood not to have been aware of the contents of the emails until Wednesday evening.
Speaking to Sky News, one Labour MP has called for more information on what happened behind closed doors at No 10 this week.
Jo White, MP for Bassetlaw, in Nottinghamshire, said: “We cannot move on until we find out how he [Sir Keir] was not briefed properly before PMQs.”
“What he needs to do now is get on top and sort out this mess,” she said. “Suspend the whip from Peter Mandelson and expel him from the party, then have a transparent enquiry about what went wrong at No.10.”
This came as Sir Keir enjoyed some time away from Downing Street.
The prime minister was on Saturday pictured watching Arsenal face Nottingham Forest in a Premier League match at the Emirates Stadium.
Arsenal fan Sir Keir cheered on his side as they won 3-0. Pic: Reuters
Lord Mandelson’s exit came after less than a fortnight after another high-profile loss for the Labour government, as Angela Rayner was forced to quit as deputy prime minister and deputy Labour leader over her tax affairs.
As Sir Keir has faced a scandal-hit start to the month, a growing number of Labour MPs have begun calling his leadership into question.
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Mandelson’s exit leaves Trump visit in the lurch
What we know about Mandelson-Epstein relationship
Lucy Powell, who is running to replace Ms Rayner as Labour’s deputy leader, has called for a “change of culture” at Downing Street.
“We’ve got a bit of a groupthink happening at the top, that culture of not being receptive to interrogation, not being receptive to differing views,” she told The Guardian newspaper.
Meanwhile, senior Labour MP Emily Thornberry has written to the new foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, demanding answers about the vetting process for UK diplomats in the wake of Lord Mandelson’s sacking.
A man has admitted arson after a major fire at an MP’s constituency office.
Joshua Oliver, 28, pleaded guilty to starting the fire which destroyed the office of Labour MP Sharon Hodgson, at Vermont House in Washington, Tyne and Wear.
The fire also wrecked a small charity for people with very rare genetic diseases and an NHS mental health service for veterans.
The guilty plea was entered at Newcastle Magistrates’ Court on the basis that it was reckless rather than intentional.
Hodgson, who has been an MP since 2005, winning her seat again in 2019. Pic: Reuters
The Crown did not accept that basis of plea.
Oliver, of no fixed address, had been living in a tent nearby, the court heard.
Northumbria Police previously said it was “alerted to a fire at a premises on Woodland Terrace in the Washington area” shortly after 12.20am on Thursday.
“Emergency services attended and no one is reported to have been injured in the incident,” it added.
Drone footage from the scene showed extensive damage to the building.
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A spokesperson for the Crown Prosecution Service said: “Our prosecutors have worked to establish that there is sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial and that it is in the public interest to pursue criminal proceedings.
“We have worked closely with Northumbria Police as they carried out their investigation.”
Oliver was remanded in custody and will appear at Newcastle Crown Court on Tuesday, 14 October.
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