
Athletics activate Bleday, out since August, off IL
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2 years agoon
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adminThe Oakland Athletics activated outfielder JJ Bleday from the 10-day injured list on Tuesday and optioned shortstop Kevin Smith to Triple-A Las Vegas.
Bleday, 25, had been on the IL since Aug. 15 with a sprained left ACL. On rehabilitation assignment with Las Vegas, he went 5-for-10 with three runs, two extra-base hits, four RBIs and three walks in three games.
He last played for the Athletics on Aug. 13. This season, Bleday is batting .203 with 10 home runs and 27 RBIs in 241 at-bats over 77 games.
Bleday played his rookie season in 2022 for the Miami Marlins and batted .167 with five homers and 16 RBIs in 65 games before he was traded to Oakland on Feb. 11.
Smith, 27, is batting .185 (25-for-135) with five homers and 11 RBIs in 49 games this season.
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From Cy Young winners to a Florida tech salesman: Pitchers share what it’s really like facing Aaron Judge
Published
21 mins agoon
September 14, 2025By
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Since Aaron Judge entered the majors near the end of the 2016 season, there has not been a more prolific — and fear-inducing — slugger than the New York Yankees superstar.
Listed at 6-foot-7, 282 pounds, Judge’s mix of size, power and patience makes him every pitcher’s nightmare. Nobody has hit more home runs than Judge’s 359 since his major league debut, and nothing else can get an entire stadium to perk up in anticipation quite like when No. 99 steps to the plate.
Although a midseason right elbow injury slowed the pace a bit on what could have been his best work yet, Judge is putting the finishing touches on his fourth season with at least 40 home runs and his fourth straight with an OPS over 1.000 while, yet again, entering the final weeks with the American League MVP award within his reach.
We asked those who have faced Judge throughout his major league career — and some who first got their first taste of his power before the reigning AL MVP was a household name — to share their best Aaron Judge stories.
‘Maybe I should start an Aaron Judge he’s-hit-a-home-run-off-me support group’
For better or worse, every pitcher who faces Judge today goes into the matchup knowing what he is up against. But there was a time when he had the element of surprise on his side as he rose through the ranks at Fresno State.
During the 2012 season, Mark Appel was the talk of college baseball. On March 2, the ace of No. 1-ranked Stanford baseball took the mound for a nonconference matchup against Judge’s Bulldogs unaware of what awaited him.
“We had very limited scouting. Video scouting was not really a widespread thing,” Appel recalled earlier this month. “So, we knew just based off of the numbers, but it was so early in the season. I don’t think he had a prolific freshman year. He was relatively unknown to us.
“I remember we went to Fresno, and they already had some fans — probably just some of his fellow classmates — that would go to the games, and they had this little chant for him whenever he came up, I can’t even remember what it was, but it’s like, ‘Here comes the Judge.'”
Judge entered that day with no home runs nine games into his sophomore season — after hitting just two his freshman year — but took Stanford’s ace deep twice in a stunning 7-4 upset.
And the legend of Judge was born.
Appel: We kind of walked in there — I think we were No. 1 in the country — like we’re just gonna kind of steamroll these guys, you know? And we did not. We did not.
We were so dumbfounded. We were like, ‘What is going on right now?’ I think I had just come off of a game [against Texas] where I threw seven innings, 10 punches, one run maybe. I was just dominant, you know? And then we go to this, a .500 Fresno State team, and they put up a seven spot on me.
Pretty sure that year I gave up only three home runs, and two of ’em were in that game to Aaron.
Erick Fedde, Milwaukee Brewers (UNLV, 2012-14): Back then, he obviously still had that presence of a big human. I guess I didn’t have that expectation of a perennial All-Star, best hitter, MVP caliber player, but you obviously knew he had power.
Appel: I had a big fastball, especially for college. So, I think Fresno State’s game plan against me was like, ‘Hey, look for the fastball, get on it early and just try to put a barrel on it.’ I left one just kind of middle-in, right in Aaron’s sweet spot, and he just — I mean, it was one of the hardest-hit balls I’ve seen. It got out in a hurry.
Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs (Oregon State, 2011-13): The first year of the BBCOR bats … I just remember we were taking BP, and we were complaining because we thought the Nike BBCOR bats just stunk. And then when we go watch Fresno State, they’re swinging Easton bats, and this one freshman was just peppering the scoreboard. Just hearing this metal bang on the scoreboard every time and it’s like, ‘Oh, we’re complaining [to Nike] about the bats.’ And then come to realize it’s not the bats. That was Aaron Judge as a freshman.”
Fedde: I saw him hit some home runs off [my UNLV] teammates that were some of the farthest balls I’ve ever seen hit.
Appel: A year later, he gets drafted in the first round … my teammates are like, ‘He’s got you to thank for that. You’re the one that put him on the map.’ And now, in hindsight, I’m like, ‘OK, guys. Turns out this guy’s a generational kind of player. I think he’s proven that he was way better than me.’
When I got called up in 2022, every day it was the Aaron Judge Home Run Tracker. We are watching history here, and so I was like, ‘Man, this is cool.’ In some ways, I felt connected to him just because I was maybe part of the origin story of Aaron Judge.
Maybe I should start an Aaron Judge he’s-hit-a-home-run-off-me support group. Maybe that’s how I get to hang out with some cool dudes.
‘He just turned on it, hit it — I mean it had to be 500 feet’
After jumping on the national radar with his feats against Appel at Fresno State, Judge firmly planted himself on MLB draft boards with his performance in the prestigious Cape Cod League the following summer.
The nature of the showcase league had Judge going up against future major league aces and other collegiate pitchers nearing the end of their careers.
Frederick Shepard now manages hedge funds in San Francisco and Anthony Montefusco is a tech salesman in Orlando, Florida. Neither has pitched in a decade, but both can still quickly recall their stories of pitching to Judge that summer.
Montefusco was coming off his sophomore year at George Mason and came out of the bullpen for the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox to face Judge in the eighth inning on June 28, 2012. Montefusco attempted to run a fastball inside, caught too much of the strike zone and watched his pitch sail over the left-center-field fence never to be seen again.
“He just turned on it, hit it — I mean it had to be 500 feet, to the tops of the trees in their place at that point,” Montefusco recalled earlier this month.
Shepard, who pitched at Division III Amherst College, was a starting pitcher for the Wareham Gatemen that summer. On July 8, they visited Brewster, and his then-girlfriend Kristina Ballard was able to ride her bicycle to watch Shepard pitch from where she was working on the Cape.
That afternoon, she saw Aaron Judge turn on a pitch from her future husband and hit a home run that cleared the enormous trees that sat beyond the center-field fence, leaving an entire ballpark in awe.
Shepard: [Kristina] tells this story to this day — to anyone who will listen. She thinks it was so cool.
Montefusco has heard about his moment just as frequently because he grew up in New Jersey among a family of die-hard Yankees fans. His mom’s favorite player? Aaron Judge.
Montefusco: I’m like, ‘How can you be after that home run?’ But it’s also hard not to be an Aaron Judge fan.
I remember getting him to two strikes. [Coach] called fastball inside, which … a physical specimen in the box, it’s always, ‘Get this ball in,’ but you don’t want to hit him. And I threw a decent pitch; he fouled it off.
Coach called fastball in again, and I was like, ‘Make sure you get it in,’ and left it kind of middle-middle, middle-third … Yeah, missed my spot, but he didn’t miss it.
Sean Manaea, New York Mets (Hyannis, 2012): I saw Aaron in the Cape, too, so I’ve really seen him all over the place.
The first thing is the size. It’s very hard to not notice that. He’s a very large human being. If I’m looking up to you, you’re a very big person because I’m a pretty big person. I remember shaking his hand and I was like, ‘Wow, that’s a pretty large hand.’ And obviously the baseball skills have been there for as long as I can remember.
Shepard: There’s nothing like standing there on the pitcher’s mound and Aaron Judge stepping to the plate, being all the way back in the box, all the way out, and you can’t pitch him anywhere. His bat reached the other batter’s box, and you couldn’t pitch him in because he was already off the plate as much as he could be. It was impossible.
Manaea: Funny story: I was throwing a no-hitter. I think into the seventh, eighth or ninth, something like that. And I hear a, one of their teammates in the dugout, is like, ‘Hey, let’s break up the no-hitter here!” And I’m like, ‘What?’ And then Judge was up, and he broke up the no-hitter.
Montefusco: It was one of those home runs that you give up and you’re not even that mad at, because of how far it was. I turned and watched it, and then my teammate from George Mason, he was on the team. I looked at him and he was laughing with his jaw on the floor.
‘He’s definitely the focal point, right? His name stands out’
The challenge of facing Judge comes in two parts.
There’s the pitcher vs. slugger showdown that fans see on the field: A locked-in Judge standing 60 feet, six inches away, waiting to turn the slightest mistake into a souvenir for a fan seated 400-plus feet away in the outfield bleachers.
The mental battle begins long before that, starting in the pregame preparation when a pitcher realizes his task includes navigating a lineup with the sport’s premier long ball threat looming in the middle of it.
Max Fried, New York Yankees: I mean, he’s definitely the focal point, right? When you look at the lineup, you look at it and say, ‘You don’t want this guy to beat you.’
His name stands out so it’s definitely something you’re paying attention to and you know when he’s starting to come up or when his spot in the order is coming up.
Ryne Stanek, New York Mets: People pitch him scared and then have to come back, as opposed to being super aggressive. And I think that happens to a lot of other really good hitters. People are always super cautious and then have to go back at ’em and then they’re in such an advantage and it doesn’t work, especially when you’re facing really good hitters.
Manaea: From just the outside looking in, it’s not like he’s trying to hit home runs. It’s like he’s just trying to be a great hitter, which he is. And you could see that in the way he covers the fastball. He recognizes spin. He doesn’t strike out like a whole crazy amount.
Stanek: He doesn’t wildly chase, and he knows where he’s trying to hit the ball … he knows he doesn’t have to overswing to do damage, and he’s just got to put barrel on the ball.
Martin Perez, Chicago White Sox: We’re always talking about ‘Why you throw me this pitch’ but you have to be careful because he’s a powerful hitter. Anything he touches with the bat, it could be a homer.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers: “I haven’t quite figured out [how to prepare for him]. If I had it figured out, his numbers wouldn’t be what they are.”
Stanek: I think guys that know they have enough juice to get it out of anywhere and they don’t overswing, it minimizes holes. I think that’s one thing that he’s done a really good job of over the course of his career. He knows who he is, and he knows what he’s trying to do.
Fried: You know if you leave a ball over the plate, it’s going to go a long way.
‘I mean 6-foot-8, the visual’s already like, “Oh s—“‘
Once the plan of attack is in place, the only thing left for a pitcher to do is step on the mound and execute — which is easier said than done.
Few players have more experience toeing the rubber against Judge than two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell. The two arrived in the majors at the same time in the same division and immediately became stars on contenders. They have also developed a close friendship over the years.
That tight bond has led to some unique interactions around their matchups — but Snell is far from the only one who recognizes the unique challenge in facing the game’s tallest slugger.
Snell: I’m either going to strike him out or walk him. So, when he swings, that’s when he gets into trouble — because it’s not going to be in the zone. And I tell him that. He thinks I’m messing with him. He’s the only person I talk to like that.
I’ve told him since even before the big leagues: ‘Don’t swing.’ I mean 6-foot-8, the visual’s already like, ‘Oh s—t.’ He connects with it; he can hit something hard back at you.
Manaea: The intimidation of just how big he is and when he steps into the box, you really feel that … Just based off the fact of him stepping into the box and his presence … I feel like he leans into that, which he should.
Aaron Civale, Chicago Cubs: He’s a lot taller than the average hitter. The area you can throw the ball in the strike zone is a lot bigger, but he has a lot of coverage. There seems to be a lot of space to throw to, but he covers in and out of the zone.
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves: It looks like the zone is huge, but it’s still hard to throw him a strike. I’d say that’s the different visual, given how tall he is … It seems like you have all the space to work with but that’s the misleading aspect of it. He can cover all of it.
Matt Strahm, Philadelphia Phillies: I try to [block] out [the hitter] and throw whatever pitch the catcher calls. But I’m not going to lie, you can feel when someone 6-foot-6 gets in the box.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: You face hitters all around the league, but when you face Judge, it looks weird, because he’s bigger than everything around him.
Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants: The zone kind of changes with him. The fastball up has to be on. A fastball up to a Cody Bellinger or a Paul Goldschmidt, isn’t as high as it is for an Aaron Judge. The fastball up has to be up. Almost to eye level of somebody else.
Strahm: It’s almost like he casts a shadow over your target. I don’t want to say intimidating, but his presence is just known.
Charlie Morton, Detroit Tigers: As an opposing player or opposing pitcher, it’s like, ‘Man, here comes Aaron Judge.’ He’s one of the best in the league. But I also just really appreciate what he’s done for baseball. How he carries himself. How he goes about his business is great.
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins: He’s the captain and everything. It’s real. I never met Jeter, but it feels like they recreated Jeter in a lab or something for the modern era. He’s a beast out there.
‘I could’ve sworn that ball was 60 rows deep’
No matter the plan going into the at-bat, giving up long home runs is an occupational hazard those who face Judge have come to accept — and those mammoth blasts stay with a pitcher forever.
Perhaps no pitcher has a more remarkable story to tell of Judge’s prestigious power than reliever Jason Adam‘s lasting memory of a time he was sure he had surrendered a tying home run at the crack of the bat.
The then-Rays closer immediately bent over on the mound with his hands on his knees, not even bothering to look to see where the ball landed. When Adam did finally turn his head, he was pleasantly surprised by the sight of outfielder Jose Siri catching the towering fly ball at the warning track. Big sigh of relief. Game over.
Adam: I could’ve sworn that ball was 60 rows deep. And I was like, ‘No way.’ I mean, he smacked it. But it was high.
That was a hilarious moment because I was like, ‘I just blew the game.’ And then I look up and I see Siri camping. I was like, ‘No way.’ And then I looked at him and he was laughing. So, yeah, that was a fun moment.
Other pitchers haven’t been quite so fortunate.
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox: He got me at Fenway, dead center, like 2017 or 2018, it was pretty early on. Pretty sure it was a fastball. It was one of those off the bat, forget about it. It was a solo home run, and we were winning by a lot, so it didn’t bother all that much. But right off the bat, it was like ‘I’m getting a new ball.’
Boyd: He had raw power at all times. I remember he hit a homer off me in High-A Tampa, and it was one of those ones where I felt like I tried to flinch for a line drive, and it went out over the center-field wall. It was that hard.
Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies: You got to respect it. The one in Colorado earlier this year, we kind of had a pretty decent battle in his first at-bat. And I want to say we were up around eight, nine pitches in the at-bat, threw a well-located fastball down and away, and he put a really good swing on it, went backside into our bullpen.
The other one was in New York last year. Again, I want to say it was a pretty decent battle of an at-bat, and we went hard fastball in off the plate, and he was able to keep his hands in and put the barrel and hit it.
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays: It was the third pitch. I threw a cutter right down the middle and he hit it out. It stayed right over the heart of the plate. … He’s just very talented. He stays back well.
Skubal: He’s got power to all fields so it doesn’t really matter where it’s going. If he’s hitting it hard, it has a chance to leave the yard. The one last year was a sinker to right field so it was — that’s what I’m saying, he’s got power to all yards.
Boyd: One year in Scranton, Buck Farmer and I and the wives were out to dinner. We were pitching Game 1 and 2 of the series and we were at dinner and Aaron saw us and picked up our check. That meant a ton.
We weren’t making much money back then and even got dessert. I was like, ‘Oh, that was really cool.’ He said hi on the way in and didn’t even tell us. Just picked it up and left.
And the next day Buck started, he hit two homers off Buck and the next day after I started, he hit a homer off me. … He did something nice for us and still hit a homer off me.”
Freeland: Getting to face guys like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman — those big-name superstars in our game. Those are guys you want to be facing. You want to match up against those guys. You remember those. You remember when you punch their ticket, and you remember when they get a big hit off you for a home run.
Skubal: He’s the game’s best. That’s the beautiful part about this game. You get to compete at the highest level and you tip your cap when they do things like that because that’s special. You’ve got to be a special player to be able to do stuff like that and he’s one of those guys.
‘He’s not seeing this. Keep throwing him this pitch’
Baseball is a game of failure for even the best sluggers and many pitchers have their own tales to tell of the times they’ve gotten the best of Judge.
Having sustained success against him is rare though, and Chris Sale has had as much as anyone over the years — having struck out Judge 17 times in 27 at-bats while limiting him to a .185 batting average.
“You have to be locked in, that’s for sure,” Sale said. “The back of his baseball card speaks for itself. You know that any mistake can be costly, especially if there are runners on.”
Some pitchers are eager to share their tales of glory — while others prefer to keep their tricks tucked away for the next time they need them.
Ryan: I’ve made some good pitches, kept him off-balance, maybe kept him guessing a little bit. Those are the main things.
[Former Twins teammate] Nick Gordon was breaking it down after I faced him. ‘He’s not seeing this. Keep throwing him this pitch.’ I kept doing it. It worked a little bit.
Fried: I remember the ones from last year. I threw a fastball that kind of beat him at the top of the zone, and I threw a 2-2 curveball.
Genesis Cabrera, Minnesota Twins: I attacked the zone. I threw a couple curves really well, that’s why he missed it.
Adam: You know his weaknesses; you know his strengths. He knows what I throw him. So, there’s an element of just trying to maintain unpredictability.
He’s the best in the world, but good pitches will still typically get him out, so you just try to make good pitches and trust the odds are still in your favor.
Perez: I can’t tell you the spot to get him out. I might be facing him [again]. For me it’s location. It’s not about velocity.
Of course, against Judge, success is measured a little differently.
Fried: You just have to really be careful of making the pitches and I think there’s also an element of “If you walk him, it’s not the end of the world.”
Snell: The rest of the team I’m going to challenge and all that. But him? I’m not going to let him be the one to get me.
Sports
Best of Week 3: Bulldogs, Yellow Jackets and Aggies lead an epic day
Published
9 hours agoon
September 14, 2025By
admin
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David HaleSep 14, 2025, 12:20 AM ET
Close- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
If you come at the king, as they say, you best not miss.
On a Saturday that threatened to completely upend college football’s power dynamics, Tennessee took its shot at defending SEC champion Georgia, but its kick sailed wide right as time expired. In Atlanta, Georgia Tech‘s field goal team sprinted onto the field as the final seconds ticked off the clock and used a 55-yard kick to send Clemson tumbling from the ACC’s throne.
It was proof that the SEC still runs through Georgia. It was a revelation that the ACC might, too.
In Knoxville, Tennessee led by 14 early but could never quite put Georgia away. Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and he chewed up just enough yardage on a final drive to give Max Gilbert a shot at the game winner. Instead, a false start flag pushed the kick back 5 yards, and Gilbert’s boot never came close to the uprights. Georgia’s unrelenting attack proved too much in overtime, and Josh McCray rumbled into the end zone for a 44-41 win that offered a reminder that these Bulldogs still bite.
Georgia ran for 198 yards and three touchdowns, punishing Tennessee’s defensive front throughout. Gunner Stockton threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns, including a score-tying dagger with 2:32 remaining to London Humphreys, the latest UGA player to be named after a member of an uppity fraternity hell-bent on getting the guys from Kegger House kicked off campus in an ’80s comedy. The performance had the feel of a coming-of-age moment for Stockton. After waiting his turn behind Carson Beck, Stockton was given the reins of the offense in last year’s playoff loss to Notre Dame, and he had done little to convince fans he was the right man for the job in Georgia’s first two games of 2025. Saturday was different. Following a sluggish first quarter, Stockton made one big throw after another with a nearly flawless second half before celebrating the win by, we assume, driving his F-150 out to his high school sweetheart’s house, holding a stereo over his head, and blaring Bon Jovi’s “Slippery When Wet” album.
If Stockton proved his toughness against Tennessee, Haynes King only added to his legend against Clemson.
1:13
Georgia Tech kicks game-winning FG to spark wild celebrations
Georgia Tech races its kicker onto the field, and Aidan Birr nails a 55-yard field goal to take down Clemson.
Georgia Tech opened with a 13-0 lead in the first half in Atlanta, but just as Georgia had done against the Vols, Clemson refused to go down without a fight. The Tigers roared back, took a 14-13 lead in the third quarter, coughed it up, then tied the score at 21 with 3:26 to play in the fourth. That’s when King took over.
On the final game-winning drive, King converted a pair of third downs with his legs, ping-ponging off defenders and taking on tacklers repeatedly, enduring the type of physical punishment typically reserved for a “Saw” movie. The effort set up a fire drill for the kicking team in the final seconds, as Georgia Tech was without a timeout. Aidan Birr sprinted onto the field and delivered the most significant shot by a man named Birr yet to have a musical written about it by Lin-Manuel Miranda.
King finished with 211 passing yards, 104 rushing yards and a touchdown, and he was beaten up enough that he has already met the deductible on his health insurance by Week 3.
The 24-21 win was Georgia Tech’s seventh against a ranked ACC foe under coach Brent Key, and it established the Yellow Jackets as a contender in the ACC, alongside the league’s other powers: Miami, which knocked off No. 18 USF with ease 49-12 on Saturday, and Florida State, which was off this week.
The bigger question is what the loss means for Clemson. Dabo Swinney’s crew is now a 50-yard touchdown run in the final 90 seconds against Pitt and a walk-off 57-yard field goal against SMU away from having lost seven of its past eight games against Power 4 foes — though if that field goal were missed it would have just pushed that game to overtime. Suddenly, the idea that Clemson’s decade-long run as the class of the ACC might be over isn’t simply the ramblings of Tyler from Spartanburg. Had Georgia lost Saturday, it would’ve been less a king dethroned than Napoleon regathering his forces while serving out an exile on Elba.
Clemson’s fall from the throne, however, has an air of finality to it, as if Swinney hadn’t simply been exiled from atop the ACC, but had packed up his bags and moved to Boca Raton, where he’ll wear his socks too high, play a lot of pickleball and complain about early-bird special portion sizes at Denny’s. Clemson is a team without an offensive identity, with a QB who often looks flustered in critical situations, and faces, for the fifth year in a row, an uphill battle against a narrative that Swinney’s magic has worn off.
If Tennessee’s fate doesn’t seem so bleak, the outcome Saturday had to feel every bit as existentially fraught. The Vols had every opportunity to alter their fate, and instead, the losing streak to Georgia reached a decade. Even seeing Nico Iamaleava‘s UCLA team fall to 0-3 with a loss to New Mexico isn’t enough to ease that pain. That it didn’t have to be this way is a practical truth, but for everyone in the stands at Neyland Stadium, it might as well have been a blowout. It all was a reminder that a little hope is as dangerous as a second round of Fireball at The Hill.
If Saturday wasn’t a complete reshuffling of the deck in the SEC and ACC, though, it was a reminder that all power is fleeting, that every team’s grasp of the ring loosens, and that eventually, the next big thing simply becomes “the thing.”
Georgia Tech stormed the castle.
Georgia held the line for another week.
There will be more battles ahead, and we’ll be lucky if they’re half as good as what we saw Saturday.
More:
Texas A&M wins thriller
Trends | Under the radar
Heisman five | Game-day takeaways
Aggies upend Irish
Coach Marcus Freeman had a clear message to his defense after Saturday’s rollicking, frenetic and ultimately debilitating 41-40 loss to Texas A&M: “Not good enough.”
Notre Dame surrendered 488 yards of offense to the Aggies, including a 13-play, 74-yard touchdown drive in the final 2:53 that won the game for A&M and sent the Irish to 0-2 on the season.
It was a wild, back-and-forth game that had four lead changes and two ties in the second half alone, and the game ultimately turned on a botched PAT try that was mishandled by holder Tyler Buchner, who, ironically, was Notre Dame’s starting QB the last time it started 0-2 in 2022.
Marcel Reed, meanwhile, led Texas A&M to its biggest road win in more than a decade by throwing for 360 yards, including the game winner to Nate Boerkircher with 13 seconds to play.
Reed, alongside Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson, TCU’s Josh Hoover and Texas Tech’s Behren Morton, are all off to exceptional starts, and there’s not a single other QB in the state of Texas whose early production is also worth mentioning here. Nope. Can’t think of anyone.
Week 3 vibe check
Each week, big plays, big upsets and big wins shape the narrative in college football, but dozens of smaller stories can have just as significant an impact in the long run. We try to keep tabs on the more subtle shifts in the sport here.
Trending down: Losing interestingly
Florida losing football games is hardly news anymore, but Saturday’s 20-10 defeat at the hands of LSU was more disappointing because no one did anything particularly stupid in the process of losing. Of course, Florida’s downward spiral began five years ago against LSU when Marco Wilson threw a shoe, and it reached a new depth last week against USF when Brendan Bett spit on a Bulls O-lineman. Saturday’s defeat offered none of that — no DJ Lagway giving Brian Kelly a wedgie, no Billy Napier forgetting to call a late timeout, because he was eating a bowl of spaghetti on the sideline, not even a missed field goal because the kicker tried using a 9-iron instead of his foot. Frankly, it’s like Florida’s not even trying to be bad anymore.
Trending up: Spite songs
Oklahoma couldn’t bring its band to Philadelphia for its game against Temple, ostensibly because that many oboes couldn’t fit into the Sooner Schooner without risking the whole thing sinking while attempting to ford the Schuylkill River, so the fine folks at St. Joseph’s University stepped up to help out.
The St. Joe’s band playing “Boomer Sooner” at a Temple game.
What a world. pic.twitter.com/lDlmmIkxhC
— Joe Mussatto (@joe_mussatto) September 13, 2025
It wasn’t an entirely benevolent gesture, however. The St. Joe’s band just wanted to troll its Big Five rival, Temple.
It wasn’t the only school to throw a little salt in the wound by employing an “enemy of my enemy is my friend” philosophy on Saturday either. After Georgia Tech knocked off Clemson, the stadium blared “Sandstorm,” the song famously employed by Tigers rival South Carolina. Not to be outdone, UMass blasted the entirety of Creed’s “Human Clay” in the locker room before the game in hopes the players would just quit and go home before having to play Iowa.
Trending down: Scheduling up
Indiana closed out another gauntlet of a nonconference schedule on Friday, narrowly escaping Indiana State 73-0. The Hoosiers are now 6-0 in nonconference regular-season games under Curt Cignetti, who urges you not to Google any of those opponents. Just be sure they’re all really good.
Trending up: Burnt ends
A sizable portion of the field at Wake Forest was covered in smoke during the first half Thursday night after a BBQ food truck caught fire just outside the stadium because, we assume, someone finally realized vinegar-based sauce is trash, and it all needed to go.
A food truck has caught fire at the NC State-Wake Forest game pic.twitter.com/KqdFMhSiYc
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) September 12, 2025
In the second half, it was NC State on fire, as the Wolfpack erased a seven-point halftime deficit for a 34-24 win. NC State is now 3-0 and perfectly poised for another of its patented 9-4 and fourth in “others receiving votes” seasons in 2025.
Trending down: Sleeves
Biff Poggi, the former Charlotte coach and what happens when you let your grandfather shop at Hot Topic, was patrolling a sideline as an FBS head coach again Saturday, filling in at Michigan for the suspended Sherrone Moore (though we can’t rule out that he was on Central Michigan‘s sideline in a CMU hat, glasses and a fake mustache). Turned out, the Wolverines didn’t miss a beat, dismissing Central Michigan 63-3 behind three touchdowns from QB Bryce Underwood. Poggi’s role, however, may have been minimal.
Biff Poggi isn’t taking credit for Bryce Underwood’s big game.
“I have a Labrador retriever who could coach that guy,” Poggi said. “He’s unbelievable.” pic.twitter.com/xdTdwBTwQu
— Austin Meek (@byAustinMeek) September 13, 2025
Frankly, if Michigan doesn’t have Poggi’s Labrador coach the team against Nebraska next week, Moore should be suspended another three games.
Trending up: Renewing rivalries
Delaware and UConn renewed a rivalry Saturday that had been dormant since the last time people unironically listened to Limp Bizkit, and the Blue Hens made up for lost time, knocking off the Huskies 44-41 in overtime behind Nick Minicucci‘s 13-yard walk-off touchdown run. The game marked the first time Delaware, a first-year member of Conference USA, hosted an FBS team since 1989, and it was the first meeting between the two former Atlantic 10 members since 1998. The win will surely be remembered as one of the watershed sporting events in the state’s history right alongside the 2003 FCS national championship and the time Mike Brey won six straight games of beer pong in a random Dewey Beach backyard while on his way to The Starboard.
Trending up: Ball confusion
Of all the things that have been thrown around Lane Kiffin over the years — clipboards, golf balls, insults — Saturday’s game against Arkansas offered a new one.
— Mr. Salmons (@MrSalmons) September 14, 2025
We assume this was John Calipari’s fault, but it had little impact on the outcome, as Ole Miss survived a tight game (41-35) without starting QB Austin Simmons. Afterward, Kiffin also used the basketball to beat Bobby Petrino in a rousing game of S-A-B-A-N.
Trending up: A Beamer in Blacksburg
Virginia Tech was demolished at home by Old Dominion 45-26 on Saturday in what feels like the last straw for Brent Pry as coach with the Hokies falling to 0-3.
Meanwhile, with LaNorris Sellers injured midway through Saturday’s game, South Carolina was beat by Vanderbilt at home 31-7.
Could that combo be the first steps to Virginia Tech bringing Shane Beamer home?
Beamer was interested in the job when his father, Frank, retired after the 2015 season, but the Hokies never seriously considered him. Then Virginia Tech tried to lure him before hiring Pry in 2022, but he wasn’t interested. Now, perhaps the timing is right if Beamer sees an easier path to the playoff in the ACC and the Hokies are willing to shell out any amount of cash for a little goodwill from a frustrated fan base.
On the other hand, Beamer is in a good place at South Carolina for the near term, and Virginia Tech may actually be converting Lane Stadium into a Spirit Halloween Store by the end of the week, too.
Under-the-radar game of the week
Two FCS powers collided Saturday, with Montana erasing a nine-point deficit in the final five minutes to beat North Dakota 24-23.
Montana QB Keali’i’ Ah Yat delivered a 28-yard touchdown pass with 1:35 to play that proved the difference in the game.
0:27
Keali’i Ah Yat airs it out for a 28-yard touchdown pass
Keali’i Ah Yat airs it out for 28-yard touchdown pass
The win establishes the Grizzlies as an FCS championship contender, and it also settles a longtime debate between Montana and North Dakota about who has to house-sit for Canada during hockey season.
Under-the-radar play of the week
Samford knew it faced an uphill battle in a game against Baylor, so the Bulldogs emptied the vault and went to the one play no one could stop late in the first quarter Saturday.
“LOLLIPOP BALL! That ball was in the air forever.”
Breaking out the trick plays 👏 pic.twitter.com/8vKFYfwSA2
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 13, 2025
The touchdown — um, pass? — from C.J. Evans to Torrey Ward pulled Samford to within seven at the time, and earned plaudits from Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz, who called it “the finest bit of passing offense I’ve seen in all my years.”
Sadly, the throw didn’t inspire Samford to more offensive fireworks, as Baylor rolled to a 42-7 lead.
Heisman five
0:34
John Mateer takes it 51 yards to the house for OU
John Mateer takes it 51-yards to the end zone for the Sooners vs. the Owls.
You have to hand it to Arch Manning. Even amid all the hype and publicity he has already gotten, he wants to ratchet things up even further by attempting to become the first Heisman winner who once completed 5-of-16 throws for 69 yards and a pick in the first half against UTEP. Don’t worry, those Texas fans weren’t saying “boo.” They were saying “Booooo-k your ticket to New York for the Heisman.”
1. Oklahoma QB John Mateer
Mateer had 325 total yards and a pair of touchdowns in Oklahoma’s 42-3 win over Temple, and afterward housed three Jim’s cheesesteaks, repaired the Liberty Bell and added the words “Texas sucks” to the Declaration of Independence before skipping town.
2. Utah QB Devon Dampier
Dampier racked up 316 total yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 31-6 win over Wyoming. The Utes were 9-of-15 on third down in the game and 1-of-1 on fourth. For the season now, Utah is 32-of-46 on third, 3-of-3 on fourth and has kicked two field goals. Add it all up, and with Dampier leading the offense so far, the Utes have gotten a first down or points on 80% on down sets that reach third down.
3. Miami QB Carson Beck
In two games vs. ranked opponents this year (Notre Dame, USF), Beck has racked up 545 passing yards and six total touchdowns, enough success that police say they’re going to finally follow up on some leads about his missing Lamborghini.
4. Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed
The Aggies are 3-0 thanks to Reed’s heroics against Notre Dame. Reed threw for 360 yards and two touchdowns — the latter coming on fourth-and-goal with 13 seconds to play — to beat the Irish. After the game, Jimbo Fisher noted that if he had a QB who could do that, he would be $75 million poorer right now.
5. Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy
Missouri is 3-0 after a dominant 52-10 win over Louisiana, and the Tigers probably deserve a good bit more hype as a potential playoff contender. But if Missouri is flying under the radar, its running back shouldn’t be. Hardy carried 22 times for 250 yards and three scores Saturday, his third straight game to start the season with over 100 yards on the ground. A year ago, while at Louisiana-Monroe, Hardy ran for 172 yards and a score against the Cajuns, bringing his career total vs. Louisiana to 422 yards rushing. Rarely is that much damage done to Louisiana by one person who isn’t on spring break.
Game-day notes
Sandwiched between scoring drives of 76 and 75 yards, Clemson’s offense totaled negative-7 yards on back-to-back three-and-outs after halftime Saturday. Those four series tell the story of the 12th-ranked Tigers’ stale, trick-or-treat offensive showing in a 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech, one that could tank Clemson’s College Football Playoff hopes. Concerns around the Cade Klubnik/Garrett Riley-led offense were already there headed into Week 3 with the Tigers entering Saturday ranked 120th in total offense and 129th in rushing yards nationally, while Klubnik sat 60th in yards per play among Power 4 quarterbacks through two games. Veteran running back Adam Randall (16 carries, 86 yards) injected some energy into the Tigers’ rushing attack, but Klubnik’s turnovers on Clemson’s opening series of each half — including a red zone interception after halftime — were costly, and Riley’s offense ultimately pieced together only three drives of five or more plays across nine total offensive series. The loss, which dropped the Tigers’ playoff odds to 5%, per ESPN Research, is a potential backbreaker for a once-promising season. Klubnik, Riley and Clemson coach Dabo Swinney will have questions to answer about the offense that has now scored the program’s fewest points through three games since 1999.
Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has announced itself as a legitimate playoff contender, helped in part by a favorable schedule the rest of the way. Haynes King‘s barreling, third-quarter touchdown run at the end of a 13-play, 90-yard scoring, followed by a bold “Philly Special” playcall on the subsequent 2-point conversion from offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, flashed the blend of toughness and creativity that can make the Yellow Jackets so dangerous (and so fun). Coach Brent Key is now 12-6 in one-score games at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were far from perfect Saturday, but they project as favorites in the majority of their games before a Nov. 28 meeting with Georgia. The question has to be asked: Could King, Key and Georgia Tech make a run at a spot in the 12-team playoff field this fall? — Eli Lederman
For the past two weeks, Georgia’s defense heard about how well it was playing, especially after carrying the offense in last week’s closer-than-expected victory over FCS program Austin Peay.
But in Saturday’s 44-41 victory in overtime at No. 15 Tennessee, the No. 6 Bulldogs looked lost at times on defense.
The high-flying Volunteers scored touchdowns on their first three possessions. Quarterback Joey Aguilar connected on his first 14 pass attempts for 213 yards and two scores.
“They grew up,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. “I mean, look, defense, for two weeks has heard about how good they are. They got punched in the face.”
On Aguilar’s 72-yard touchdown to Chris Brazzell II in the first quarter, cornerback Ellis Robinson IV was beaten on a 50-50 ball when he mistimed his jump. Brazzell was wide open on a 14-yard touchdown that gave the Volunteers a 21-7 lead.
Late in the third quarter, cornerback Daniel Harris was in position to make a play on a deep pass, but he was beaten on Brazzell’s 56-yard touchdown catch.
“In the past, we’ve played them well, we didn’t give up big plays,” Smart said. “Today, we didn’t do that, and it’s not all on the corners. We didn’t have a guy in the middle of the field. We misjudged the ball. I mean, they’re correctable things, which is a good thing, and we really weren’t beat. We just misplayed it.”
Georgia’s defense made some adjustments, and the Volunteers didn’t score on five straight possessions, which allowed the Bulldogs to erase the two-touchdown deficit and take the lead.
Georgia will get a week off to make corrections before hosting No. 19 Alabama on Sept. 27. The Bulldogs have to generate more pressure on the quarterback, and inexperienced defensive backs like Robinson and Kyron Jones are going to have to continue to grow.
“We have to improve, and that’s the goal,” Smart said. “We want to be on an elevating trajectory, not flat.” — Mark Schlabach
While other high-profile action played out elsewhere, Ole Miss and Arkansas treated the country to eight combined first-half touchdowns in the Rebels’ 41-35 win Saturday night. Per ESPN Research, the game marked only the fourth SEC contest in the past 20 years in which both teams scored at least four touchdowns before halftime.
Ferris State transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss powered Ole Miss’ offensive outpouring. Starting in place of the injured Austin Simmons, Chambliss went 21-for-29 with 353 passing yards and joined Archie Manning, Chad Kelly and Jordan Ta’amu as the fourth passer in program history to record 350 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns in a game. Simmons doesn’t look like he’ll be out much longer, and even entered to throw a touchdown before halftime. But Chambliss’ dominant debut is evidence that the Rebels have a genuine insurance policy behind Simmons in the near and/or long term in 2025.
The good news for Arkansas: The Razorbacks have eclipsed 500 yards of offense in each of their three games and will have a chance to impact the 12-team playoff field this fall. The bad news: That’s primarily because seven of their final nine games are against teams currently ranked inside the AP Top 25, starting with Notre Dame on Sept. 27. That slate might not bode especially well for the Hogs’ own postseason aspirations, but Arkansas has a playmaking quarterback in Taylen Green and an offense capable of putting a dent in the hopes of a playoff contender sometime between now and late November, just as the team showed in an impressive performance on the road at Ole Miss in Week 3. — Lederman

It’s three weeks into the season and Notre Dame has dropped out of the playoff conversation with an 0-2 start following its home loss to Texas A&M on Saturday.
In what was a wild, entertaining evening of college football, Georgia’s overtime win at Tennessee was overshadowed by what unfolded later in South Bend because the Aggies’ win had the bigger, more immediate impact on the playoff race.
And it’s going to last all season for the Irish, who no longer have any margin for error and have lost all control of their path to the playoff.
“The future’s uncertain,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “I don’t know what’s the playoff number, and it doesn’t matter. We need to focus on getting better.”
So what does it mean for Texas A&M?
This list is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. It is a ranking based on what each team has done to date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The season-opening win against Texas remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country, but the Longhorns continue to have questions on offense against far less elite defenses. The Buckeyes entered this week No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and are ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — traits of past top-four playoff teams.
Why they could be lower: The committee does track when teams play FCS teams, and the 70-0 drubbing of Grambling doesn’t help Ohio State’s résumé. Saturday’s win against Ohio also doesn’t do much for the Buckeyes during a week in which Miami, Georgia and LSU all played tougher teams.
Need to know: Even if Texas doesn’t live up to the preseason hype and ranking, the selection committee will continue to respect Ohio State’s win against the Longhorns all season — as long as Texas doesn’t come unraveled. It will be a moot point if Ohio State locks up a CFP spot by winning the Big Ten, but it would enter the conversation and help the Buckeyes when it comes to how high they can be seeded for an at-large bid. The top four teams now get the top four seeds — regardless of whether they are a conference champion.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes added to their résumé with a win against South Florida, which should still be the Group of 5’s top contender for a playoff spot. Coupled with the season-opening win against Notre Dame, Miami has one of the best combinations of eye test and résumé in the country.
Why they could be lower: The committee could be more impressed with the SEC wins, period. Georgia’s overtime road win against Tennessee could trump Miami’s home win against the Irish, and LSU’s two Power 4 wins against Clemson and now Florida could also usurp the Canes in a debate.
Need to know: Saturday’s win against the Bulls was a critical head-to-head tiebreaker that would be used in the committee meeting room if the teams finish with similar records. Even if they lock up spots as their respective conference champions, Miami would keep the edge — and the higher seed — on Selection Day, which could mean the difference in hosting a first-round home game.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 54.3% chance to beat their rival.
Why they could be here: The win against Tennessee in the SEC opener was the Bulldogs’ first statement victory, and it now lifts them above other contenders that have played well but against weaker teams. Ohio State’s defense, though, continues to keep the Buckeyes at the top, and Miami’s two wins against ranked teams — Notre Dame and South Florida — give it an edge in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which is similar to what the committee uses.
Why they could be higher: The committee considers the difficulty of playing overtime games on the road, and the former coaches and players in the room would also recognize the growth of quarterback Gunner Stockton in that unforgiving environment. Stockton completed 23 of 31 attempts for 304 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for a score.
Need to know: It’s possible this instant classic could get a replay in either the SEC championship game or the playoff — or both. The selection committee doesn’t try to avoid rematches when it’s ranking the teams, so it’s possible for Georgia and Tennessee to play as many as three times.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an off week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ season-opening win at Clemson took another hit after the Tigers lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday, and the true value of beating a beleaguered Florida team at home is yet to be determined. Still, those combined wins outweigh what most of the contenders below them have accomplished. LSU’s defense has been a highlight, as the Tigers were No. 11 in the country in defensive efficiency heading into Week 3. They shut out the Gators in the second half, and quarterback DJ Lagway threw five interceptions.
Why they could be lower: The Tigers still haven’t flashed that wow factor, continuing to do just enough to win while overcoming mistakes. LSU had only 10 first downs (compared with 22 by Florida), was held under 100 yards rushing, and was 4-of-14 on third downs. LSU ranks behind several other contenders listed below in ESPN’s game control metric.
Need to know: LSU should be undefeated heading into its Sept. 27 game at Ole Miss, which will be one of three critical road trips that will define the Tigers’ season. LSU also travels to Alabama and Oklahoma. The win against the Gators gives them a much-needed cushion, but they can’t go 0-3 on the road against those teams — and that doesn’t count the Oct. 18 trip to Vandy, which just beat South Carolina.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The road win at Notre Dame was the first statement playoff victory under coach Mike Elko, and it gives the Aggies one of the best nonconference wins of the season. It’s arguably better than the Canes’ victory against the Irish because Texas A&M did it on the road. It wasn’t a flawless performance, but it was enough to boost the Aggies into the conversation.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to tell how good a win is against Notre Dame this year, considering they’re 0-2. Texas A&M’s other two wins were against UTSA and Utah State, which won’t help their résumé.
Need to know: The selection committee compares results against common opponents. Though it’s not an overriding factor, the group would at least consider how Miami and Texas A&M looked in their wins against the Irish if the members were comparing the Aggies and Canes side-by-side during the ranking process.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now, the Tigers look like a tougher matchup on the road.
Why they could be here: With wins against Montana State, Oklahoma State and Northwestern, the Ducks have yet to be tested against ranked competition, but they haven’t had any scares. They shut out Northwestern for the first three quarters of their Big Ten opener and continued to look dominant even when scoring fewer than 60 points. Most of the teams ranked above them, though, have a more impressive win.
Why they could be higher: The Ducks are passing the eye test, albeit against weaker competition. They didn’t have any penalties in the win against Northwestern, and quarterback Dante Moore has thrown only one interception this season.
Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, so Penn State and Indiana (maybe USC?) will be the Ducks’ biggest obstacles to returning to the Big Ten title game. Even if the Ducks lose at Penn State, though, they could face the Nittany Lions again in the Big Ten championship (if Penn State can knock Ohio State out of it).
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 50.8% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Noles had a bye, and the committee typically doesn’t shift teams that don’t play — unless it results from movement around them. The season-opening win against Alabama continues to shine, as the Tide has rebounded with back-to-back convincing wins. It also helps separate FSU from other contenders who didn’t earn a nonconference win against a top-25 opponent.
Why they could be lower: The win against Bama is all they’ve got now. The 77-3 blowout of FCS East Texas A&M won’t help them, and while the bye week isn’t a penalty, other teams had an opportunity to enhance their strength of record.
Need to know: Florida State doesn’t play Georgia Tech during the regular season, but it has a tricky trio against Miami, Clemson and at rival Florida. If the Noles can go 2-0 against the SEC, it would be a significant boost to their at-large hopes if they don’t win the ACC — assuming the Gators and Tide finish above .500 and have respectable seasons.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. The Nov. 8 trip to Clemson looks less daunting after the Tigers lost a second game.
Why they could be here: The preseason rankings and hype are irrelevant in the committee meeting room but the weak nonconference schedule is not. Wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping the Nittany Lions behind teams that have played against better opponents. The offense found a groove during a dominant second half against the Wildcats, and the defense did not allow a touchdown until the final play of the game.
Why they could be lower: Penn State’s nonconference win doesn’t include a Power 4 opponent, and questions linger about whether the offense is productive enough to beat Oregon. Expectations for quarterback Drew Allar were high entering this season, but he has only four passing touchdowns in three games against weaker opponents. He has completed less than 60% of his passes in each of the past two games. The Nittany Lions rank No. 65 in offensive efficiency — and the selection committee will expect more.
Need to know: The Nittany Lions have a bye week before hosting Oregon on Sept. 27.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule that ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: There was no hint of a letdown at Temple a week after beating Michigan. The committee has always shown an appreciation for star power, and OU has it in quarterback John Mateer, who has resurrected the Sooners’ offense. Oklahoma’s lopsided win against an overmatched Temple team won’t do anything to boost the Sooners’ résumé, but it assured Oklahoma of a 3-0 start heading into Saturday’s SEC opener against Auburn.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has changed the outlook of this team, and the win against Michigan is one of the better nonconference victories in the country. The Wolverines rebounded and whalloped Central Michigan 63-3, reiterating the potential of freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who was smothered by OU’s defense.
Need to know: Oklahoma started 3-0 last year with a win against Temple, too, but then lost four of its next five games. The win against Michigan and play of Mateer indicate this season could be different, but the season-defining stretch begins against rival Texas on Oct. 11. The back half of the Sooners’ schedule is loaded with seven straight games against opponents that entered Week 3 ranked.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 74.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols’ game was so close that Georgia coach Kirby Smart said afterward he almost felt like he should apologize: “I don’t think we should have won that game. I thought they outplayed us in a lot of ways.” The committee will not penalize the Vols for losing an overtime game at home to one of the SEC’s best teams, but it will wonder about allowing 44 points, 502 yards, and having 10 penalties and two turnovers. The committee will still respect the season-opening win against Syracuse, which has won each of its past two games against weaker opponents.
Why they could be lower: The lack of a true statement win, plus the loss, could drop them behind the Illini. Considering the offensive showing, though, it’s hard to make a case for Texas ahead of Tennessee. The committee would consider that the Vols lost at home, while Texas lost at Ohio State. Tennessee’s win against Syracuse, though, is better than anything on the Longhorns’ résumé so far.
Need to know: The Vols have a realistic path to the SEC championship, where they could meet Georgia again. Tennessee doesn’t play LSU or Texas. It can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma, but the Vols get the Sooners at home.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 63.6% chance to win, but it’s the only other game on the schedule that the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Illini are 3-0 heading into their Big Ten opener at Indiana, including a road win at Duke. Illinois had no trouble against winless Western Michigan, but that won’t change its status in the committee meeting room this week. It didn’t help Illinois that Duke lost to Tulane, an outcome that somewhat devalues that win — at least for now.
Why they could be higher: Illinois is a legitimately talented, veteran team that continues to take care of business with veteran quarterback Luke Altmyer. The Illini entered the week ranked No. 12 in offensive efficiency, another stat that would jump out at the committee.
Need to know: Saturday’s game at Indiana will be an under-the-radar matchup that might impact the CFP because both teams could be competing with each other for an at-large bid. The winner could knock out the loser with the head-to-head tiebreaker. It’s possible for both to get in, but it’s hard to imagine the Big Ten getting five teams in the 12-team field (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Indiana and Illinois).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 74.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Longhorns have won back-to-back games since their season-opening loss at Ohio State, but questions about the offense remain. Running backs CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner missed all or parts of the game because of injuries, and quarterback Arch Manning had another underwhelming passing performance with one touchdown and an interception. He accounted for two rushing touchdowns, but this was hardly a smooth performance. Texas was just 5-of-16 on third downs and 2-of-5 on fourth downs. Meanwhile, rival Oklahoma is soaring offensively with quarterback John Mateer, and the Sooners’ win against Michigan is better than anything Texas has earned.
Why they could be lower: It has been Arch Maddening for Texas fans, who booed their quarterback after an interception in the red zone. That throw was part of 10 straight incompletions at one point. Manning completed just 5 of 16 passes (31%) in the first half for 69 yards.
Need to know: The Longhorns have one more tuneup game, on Saturday against Sam Houston, before opening SEC play on Oct. 4 at Florida.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 LSU
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Texas A&M
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Penn State
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 4 LSU
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Penn State winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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