Tesla (TSLA) is expected to release Q3 delivery numbers next week, and expectations are all over the place amid a likely rare quarter without growth.
Over the last few years, Tesla has created high expectations for deliveries every quarter by managing to beat quarterly records nearly every time.
During the last earnings call, CEO Elon Musk warned that Q3 2023 might be different. He said that production will likely be down due to factory shutdowns for upgrades.
When production is down, deliveries are often down too.
Now with delivery results expected next week, many analysts are locking in their expectations, and it is quite all over the place.
Here are some of the estimates from Wall Street analysts and independent researchers:
Baird: 493,200 deliveries
Deutsche Bank: 440,000 deliveries
RBC Capital Markets: 462,000 deliveries
Troy Teslike: 442,000 deliveries
The overall Wall Street consensus sits at an optimistic 462,000 deliveries, which is only marginally down from last quarter.
Electrek’s Take
I think Wall Street is setting Tesla up for a tumble on the delivery announcement. Giga Shanghai, Tesla’s most productive factory, had a shutdown.
Same for Gigafactory Texas, which looked like it had very little production during the quarter. It was never a major contributor to Tesla’s deliveries, but it will still have an impact.
I think closer to being down 20,000 deliveries, maybe even down 30,000 deliveries, would make more sense.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments section below.
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Toyota is doubling down on the “holy grail” of EV tech — all-solid-state batteries. Its first EV could arrive as soon as 2027, promising longer driving range, faster charging times, and more.
Toyota to launch its first all-solid-state battery EV in 2027
After announcing a new partnership with Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. to mass produce cathode materials for the new battery tech on Wednesday, Toyota said it aims “to achieve the world’s first practical use of all-solid-state batteries in BEVs.”
Toyota said that its new batteries could significantly enhance driving range, charging times, and output, potentially transforming the future of automobiles.
Compared to current liquid-based batteries, which use electrolyte solutions, Toyota’s all-solid-state batteries utilize a cathode, an anode, and a solid electrolyte. According to Toyota, the next-gen battery tech “offers the potential for smaller size, higher output, and longer life.”
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Toyota aims to launch its first all-solid-state battery-powered EV in 2027 or 2028. The new development agreement moves it one step closer to bringing the new battery tech to market on a mass scale.
The two companies have been developing cathode materials for all-solid-state EV batteries since 2021, focusing on some of the biggest challenges in producing them at a mass scale.
Using Sumitomo Metal Mining’s proprietary powder synthesis technology, Toyota claimed to have developed a “highly durable cathode material” for all-solid-state batteries.
Toyota EV battery roadmap (Source: Toyota)
Sumitomo has been supplying cathode materials for electric vehicles for years, but it’s now working to introduce the newly developed tech, moving it toward mass production.
The new agreement comes after Toyota was granted a METI certification to manufacture the new batteries in Japan last September.
Idemitsu’s value chain for solid electrolytes used in all-solid-state EV batteries (Source: Idemitsu)
Toyota is collaborating with several partners in Japan, including oil giant Idemitsu Kosan, to introduce the new EV batteries to the market.
Idemitsu announced plans earlier this year to build a large-scale production plant for lithium sulfide, a raw material used in all-solid-state EV batteries. Once up and running, the plant will be capable of producing 1,000 metric tons of lithium sulfide annually. The company is also aiming to mass-produce all-solid-state batteries in 2027.
Toyota bZ electric vehicles in China (Source: Toyota)
The new batteries are part of Japan’s plans to secure a domestic supply chain and reduce its reliance on China and South Korea. Toyota is among several companies in Japan that are investing a combined $7 billion (1 trillion yen) in domestic battery production.
Electrek’s Take
Will Toyota be the “world’s first” to put all-solid-state EV batteries to practical use? Others, including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, and Honda, are also betting on the new technology.
Mercedes claimed to have put “the first car powered by a lithium-metal solid-state battery on the road” in February. Just last month, Mercedes drove an EQS, equipped with solid-state batteries, for nearly 750 miles (1,205 km).
Mercedes’ tech boss, Markus Schäfer, is already calling the new EV battery tech a “gamechanger” for electric vehicles. The company aims to bring solid-state batteries into series production by the end of the decade.
Meanwhile, CATL and BYD, which are already dominating the global battery market, aim to introduce the new battery tech around 2027.
SAIC MG launched the new MG4 in August, deeming it “the world’s first mass-produced semi-solid-state” electric vehicle.
Can Toyota compete? It has been promising to launch all-solid-state batteries for years now, but new alliances could help make it a reality. As for the “world’s first,” however, that may be a stretch.
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A recent tragic incident in Portland, Oregon, one of countless similar occurrences, is putting a spotlight on a less-discussed but very real threat to micromobility riders: the condition of our roads.
Earlier this month, a Portland husband and father tragically lost his life while riding an electric scooter along an otherwise innocuous local street. It was marked just 25 mph, but it wasn’t the road’s speed that was the issue, or even the car traffic, which is usually to blame for most riders’ deaths. According to reports, Randy Phelps was thrown from his scooter after hitting a pothole in the road. He spent nearly three weeks on life support before passing away. His organs went on to save the lives of three others.
The loss is heartbreaking – but sadly, not unique.
The pothole had been reported to the city many times, including by local residents and businesses located along the street. Just a few days after Phelps died, the city finally filled in the pothole.
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We talk a lot about the dangers that cars pose to cyclists and scooter riders. And for good reason… they are far and away the leading cause of injuries and fatalities for micromobility users. But it’s time we start recognizing that crumbling infrastructure is another deadly factor.
Potholes, cracks, unmarked trenches, and uneven pavement may go unnoticed or simply seem like minor annoyances to drivers in SUVs or pickup trucks. But to someone on an electric scooter or e-bike, they can be catastrophic. Especially at the typical speeds many of these vehicles travel, often between 15 to 28 mph (25 to 45 km/h), a sudden jolt or loss of control from hitting a deep pothole can easily send a rider flying.
File photo: Pothole example in an urban road
Electric scooters are particularly vulnerable here. Commonly available with small 8 to 9-inch wheels, they simply don’t have the ability to roll over wide cracks or potholes that larger diameter wheels have. Instead, they tend to fall into them. Hitting a large pothole on a scooter can often end in an immediate crash. E-bikes usually fare better, with larger diameter wheels offering a bit more forgiveness. But even on a bike, deep pot holes or simply the wrong bump at the wrong angle can flip you over the handlebars or throw off your line, especially if you’re already navigating traffic or a narrow bike lane. And the edge of a pothole can easily puncture an underinflated bicycle innertube with a pinch flat, leading to loss of control at speed.
It’s part of why fat tire e-bikes – with their big, 3 or 4-inch wide tires – are so popular. Not only do they give a cushy ride, but they offer a layer of protection by rolling more smoothly over broken pavement and filling in small potholes instead of dropping into them. They’re not a magic solution, but they help on rougher roads.
I’ve recently been spending time on the new VMAX VX2 Hub e-scooter, which, by electric scooter standards, has relatively large 10-inch tires. They’re also tubeless, functioning closer to motorcycle tires. While 10 inches still isn’t huge, I tend to prefer these types of larger-wheeled scooters versus the small-wheeled budget options precisely for the extra safety that those larger tires offer.
Ultimately though, this isn’t just about tire width or diameter. This is about infrastructure. Many cities across the US have done a great job encouraging people to choose alternative forms of transportation. In fact, Portland is often seen as one of the most cycling-friendly cities in the country, and even there it took the death of a local rider to get a pot hole filled in.
It takes more than just encouraging people to switch from cars to scooters or bikes. It means they have a responsibility to maintain safe conditions for those users. That includes repaving cracked roads, filling potholes quickly, and keeping bike lanes clear and usable – not just painting lines and calling it a day.
And while I hope this doesn’t come across as victim-blaming, we riders also need to recognize that part of surviving on two wheels means riding defensively – not just against cars, but against the road itself. That might mean scanning ahead more actively, slowing down when visibility is poor or the pavement is suspect, and choosing routes with safer surfaces whenever possible. On one of my first e-bikes back in 2010, I turned my wheel from an O-shape into a D-shape while following too close behind a car to see a big pot hole in time, and that taught me a big lesson that I still remember 15 years later.
None of this is meant to place blame on riders. The responsibility is on cities to fix their roads. But until that happens — and while we push for it — we riders have to ride like our lives depend on it. Because often times, they do.
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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Wednesday that demand is up huge this year as artificial intelligence models develop further from answering simple questions to complex reasoning.
“This year, particularly the last six months, demand of computing has gone up substantially,” Huang said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
The CEO of the AI chip leader was answering a question about what investors ask him most about. Nvidia shares rose about 2% on Wednesday, helping to boost the Nasdaq Composite higher.
AI reasoning models are using exponential amounts of computing power but they are also seeing exponential amounts of demand because their results are so good, Huang said.
“The AIs are smart enough that everybody wants to use it,” the CEO said. “We now have two exponentials happening at the same time.”
“Demand for Blackwell is really, really high,” he said of Nvidia’s most advanced graphics processing unit. “I think we’re at the beginning of a new buildout, beginning of a new industrial revolution.”
Nvidia announced last month it will invest $100 billion in OpenAI‘s massive data center buildout. OpenAI is planning to build 10 gigawatts of data centers using Nvidia chips.
The scale of the AI industry’s plans have raised doubts about whether the leading companies can secure the power needed to fuel their ambitions. Ten gigawatts is equivalent to the annual power consumption of 8 million U.S. households, or New York City’s peak baseline summer demand in 2024.
When asked who is winning the AI race, Huang said the U.S. is “not far ahead” of China right now. Beijing is building out the power needed to support AI much faster than the U.S., the CEO said.
“China is way ahead on energy,” Huang said.
The artificial intelligence industry will need to build new power generation off the electric grid in order to move quickly to meet demand and insulate consumers from rising electricity prices, he said. Data centers should be outfitted with natural gas and then potentially nuclear power at some point in the future, the CEO said.
“We should invest in just about every possible way of generating energy,” Huang said. “Data center self-generated power could move a lot faster than putting it on the grid and we have to do that,” he said.