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Sep 28, 2023, 08:00 AM ET

ON SEPT. 2, on one of those chilly Chicago evenings when it’s obvious that autumn is near, Miguel Cabrera played the best game he’s had in almost two years. In the top of the first inning, he doubled and passed George Brett for 17th on the all-time hit list. Cabrera then singled in the fourth, sixth and eighth inning. The last one was a chopper up the middle. The ball bounced off home plate, then over the pitcher’s mound toward White Sox second baseman Lenyn Sosa. Cabrera jogged, certain he’d be out; his game was never about running out infield hits.

Even as a kid, Cabrera wasn’t fast. When he was 17, barely learning English and playing for the Florida Complex League Marlins, a scouting report from his then-manager Kevin Boles noted the lone deficiency in Cabrera’s game was foot speed. “Has a chance to be a great player,” Boles wrote in his scouting report. “May develop into a huge offensive force.”

As Cabrera jogged on this September evening, 23 years later, the ball went past Sosa and the infield. Cabrera picked up his pace and made it safe to first base. Cabrera stood there, and the crowd — both Tigers and White Sox fans — clapped and cheered. One fan waved a Venezuelan flag. Another held a sign that read, “Bye #24 Miggy, thanks 4 the memories!!!”

Cabrera, an all-timer now relegated to a part-time role, mumbled something to himself, standing there on first base, breathing out his mouth in this otherwise forgettable late-season game between two teams with no playoff aspirations. Maybe it was a thank you. Or perhaps a few reaffirming words after thinking he’d finally found his rhythm at the tail end of his 21st and final season. Finding that or any semblance of his old self had been a constant search.

He then looked to the visitor’s dugout at Guaranteed Rate Field and walked off first, replaced by a pinch runner. And just like that, the moment was over. For the 49th time in his career he got four hits in a game, and it might be his last real moment of greatness on a baseball field.

“I’m telling you, Cabrera was one of those guys,” Boles said of the future Hall of Famer he once managed. “It didn’t matter who worked with him, nobody could screw this one up. It didn’t matter if anybody ever talked to him, he was going to be a star. That’s just how special he was.”

After that game, Cabrera wouldn’t play for another three days. Whatever rhythm he might have found that night in Chicago got lost while he sat and watched the Tigers play without him. But for that night, if only for that one night, his swing was there. Except for a few extra pounds and creases on his face, he looked like the younger version of himself.

A flashback of who he once was, in a season he hoped would go much different.

“IT WAS 1998” Louie Eljaua said of the first time he met Cabrera.

Back then, Eljaua was the Coordinator of Latin American Scouting for the Florida Marlins (he’s now the VP of International Scouting for the Chicago Cubs). For months, his scouts in Venezuela had told him there was a kid he had to see, a shortstop who looked like a seasoned pro when he swung the bat. He came from a baseball-playing family: His mother and three aunts played softball; an uncle, José Torres, played in Liga Paralela de Béisbol — a developmental professional league — and in the St. Louis Cardinals’ minor league system.

Eljaua took a plane from Miami to Caracas, Venezuela, then drove two hours southwest to the Maracay neighborhood of La Pedrera. On a clear and sunny afternoon, Eljaua stood on an unkept, dirt baseball field full of rocks. He’d flown across the Caribbean Sea to see a 15-year-old everyone called Miguelito, and the kid still wasn’t at the field.

“He’s running a little late,” Gregoria, Miguelito’s mom, told him. The Cabreras lived next to the baseball field. So close that, when Miguelito was younger, he’d sneak away to that dusty baseball field instead of doing his chores.

“He just got off from school,” Gregoria continued. “He had an exam to take.”

“No problem,” Eljaua answered.

Some 15 minutes later, a tall and slender boy jumped over a 6-foot-high concrete fence in the outfield.

“Is that him?” Eljaua asked Miguel Garcia, one of his Venezuelan scouts.

“Yes,” Garcia answered.

Eljaua was impressed with how easily Miguelito jumped the wall. From that distance, he also looked like a grown man: He was 6-foot-1, with a big head, something the neighborhood kids teased him about, joking it was the size of a train. It wasn’t until Miguelito walked closer that Eljaua saw how truly young he was.

“If you looked at his face, he could have been nine or 10 years old,” Eljaua remembered.

Miguelito shook hands with everyone, making eye contact while apologizing for running late. Then he started swinging his bat. He took about 10 or 12 or 15 swings before Eljaua asked him how he felt.

“Hey, you want to take a break?”

“No,” Miguelito answered. “I’m just getting warmed up.”

“You are?” Eljaua asked. “Okay.”

Miguelito swung some more, first hitting hard line drives, peppering them all over the field, then pulling the ball. “Okay, I’m loose now,” Miguelito said. That’s when he started hitting balls out of the field, above surrounding houses and their clotheslines and mango trees.

“Holy s—,” Eljaua thought to himself. “I think I found him.”

“Him” was the kind of player scouts dream about, who can change a franchise, who make scouts question themselves, wondering if what they’re seeing is real. In the case of Miguelito, Eljaua immediately knew that even if he never hit a home run, he would turn out to be a great hitter. Of course, Miguelito also did have power. And that day when Eljaua first saw him, Cabrera swung his bat so well and hit the ball so long, the workout came to a sudden end.

“We had to stop,” Eljaua remembers. “We were running out of balls.”

Convinced he was their player, Eljaua visited Venezuela more often, scheduling trips around games he played. The more they saw him play, the more they wanted him. One year later, shortly after Miguelito turned 16, the Marlins signed him to a $1.8 million contract.

A quarter century later, Eljaua still remembers that day better than all the other scouting trips he’s made during this 30-year career, that day the kid jumped the fence and swung like that.

“Just imagine the same swing he’s had throughout his career,” Eljaua says. “Except, I’m watching it from a 15-year-old.”

ON A MARCH afternoon inside Miami’s LoanDepot Park, a few weeks before his last MLB season begins, Cabrera leans on a bat, almost using it like a cane. His 12-year-old son, Christopher, stands beside him. The Venezuelan flag flies on the jumbotron near center field, and Cabrera and his son watch the Venezuelan national team practice and prepare for the World Baseball Classic.

“This type of event is enjoyed more by sons and family,” Cabrera says.

Cabrera occasionally points and says a few words to Christopher that only the two of them can hear. Christopher also plays baseball, but Cabrera doesn’t talk much about that. He doesn’t want to add to whatever pressure already comes from being the son of one of the greatest Latino baseball players ever. “More than anything he’s my son and I’m his father,” Cabrera says. “Our relationship isn’t built on baseball.”

Since 2006, Cabrera has played in all five World Baseball Classics, the only player to do so. This will be the last time he participates, and his role will be very different. As Omar López, Venezuela’s manager, puts it: “Miguel’s role isn’t what he’s going to do, but what he’s already done.” López has known Cabrera since he was 16, back when he played in Venezuela’s professional league, and was a prodigy in a baseball-obsessed country. Miggy, as everyone calls him now, went on to become the best player his country has ever produced, and so he is on the team as a figurehead and for leadership, to mostly watch and maybe get a few at-bats on a team built around All-Stars Luis Arráez, José Altuve and Ronald Acuña Jr.

After his teammates have taken their swings, he steps in the batting cage. After four or five cuts, Cabrera steps out and returns to watch the team practice, leaning on his bat again.

The following day, in Venezuela’s win over the Dominican Republic, Cabrera doesn’t play. The day after that, against Puerto Rico, Cabrera does play. In his first at-bat, as the fans in the stands bang on drums and blow on horns, he strikes out swinging. In his second at-bat, on the fifth pitch, Cabrera lines a single to center field, his lone hit for the entire tournament.

“Dale, todavia batea ese caballo,” a voice yells from the stand. That horse can still hit.

IN JUNE, THE Tigers go on an 1-11 stretch that extinguishes the small hope that 2023 would end their eight-year postseason drought. Cabrera isn’t playing much, even if, at $32 million, he’s the highest-paid player on the team. Tigers’ manager A.J. Hinch says he’d like to play him more, but the pitching matchup must be right, and it also depends on how Cabrera’s feeling that day.

His right knee has been hurting for years. In 2019, he consulted with four surgeons, including James Andrews. Each one gave Cabrera the same diagnosis: His knee didn’t need surgery since, more than anything, it’s just what happens when the body gets old. Cabrera tried easing the pain by losing weight. He reported to 2020 spring training about 25 pounds lighter, hoping to return to first base after being the designated hitter. And he did, for a bit, until he strained his calf or felt tightness in his back, or his knee felt sore again, then it was back to DH.

“Knee injuries, those are the toughest,” future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols says. If there’s anyone who understands what Cabrera is going through in his last season, it’s Pujols. He first made the majors in 2001, two years before Cabrera did, and retired in 2022. He and Cabrera are two of the three players in MLB history to eclipse 500 home runs, 600 doubles and 3,000 hits; Hank Aaron is the third. “He’s one of the best hitter’s that I have seen,” Pujols says of Cabrera.

Pujols also struggled physically during the end of his career. “As a hitter, when you have any problem with your knee, those are really concerning,” Pujols says. In his case, he put more pressure on his good knee to protect the one that hurt. Then the good knee started to bother him too. During his last season, his body hurt so much he had to get talked out of walking away right before the All-Star break, when he was batting about 80 points below his career average and had just six home runs. In the second half, he raised his average by 50 points and hit 18 home runs. He says he just needed to find his rhythm; he believed he could still play, even at 42.

There’s a thin line between confidence and delusion. Star players often blur the two. Generational talents sometimes can’t tell the difference at all. For someone like Cabrera, acknowledging any slippage is antithetical to how he sees himself, even if he’s hit below .300 for seven straight seasons. Another hot streak is one at bat away. He just needs more swings.

“When I get the opportunity, I’ll be ready,” Cabrera says.

At the 59-game mark, he’s played in 31 of them, batting .202, with no home runs. On those days he doesn’t play, he takes batting practice early, before anyone else.

Hoping the swing is still there.

“IT’S SOMETHING THAT’S been planned,” Cabrera says of his retirement.

He’s sitting in front of his locker in the Tigers’ clubhouse. Here, like out there, he’s impossible to ignore, his laugh and voice and jokes everywhere in the clubhouse. When an attendant comes to take away the boxes of new shoes stacked in front of his locker, Cabrera starts to wrestle him.

His final season hasn’t been easy. Cabrera will play two games, sometimes three, then rest a few. That cycle has created what feels like an unsolvable puzzle: He’s sure that if he had more at bats, he’d find a better rhythm and get more hits; if he was hitting better, he’d get more at-bats.

“It’s been difficult adapting to not playing every day,” Cabrera says.

He doesn’t talk often to the media. He sits there, in front of his locker in the corner of the clubhouse, and looks annoyed. Sometimes, instead of saying anything, he purses his lips, wrinkles his brow and shakes his head. The longest answer he gives explains why he isn’t talking much.

“I don’t like the same questions that reporters always ask,” he says. “Like you, you come and tell me, ‘I want to talk about where you started.’ My career is over 20 years long and I’ve talked about where I started.”

Cabrera also doesn’t want to talk about the political and socioeconomic issues plaguing Venezuela, where his home in Maracay has been especially hard hit. In the heavy silence, the sounds of ping pong being played a few feet away feels louder.

“Miggy, you playing today?” someone asks him about 45 minutes later as he stands on the field, near the Tigers’ dugout in Comerica Park. Cabrera answers with a head shake. He then takes photos and signs a few autographs for some young fans on the field.

“Hey, we have the same shoes,” Cabrera tells one of them; they’re both wearing the black Air Jordan 11’s. After autographs and photographs, Cabrera shakes the young fan’s hand and waves him goodbye. He then walks away, to get ready for a game he won’t play.

THE FOLLOWING DAY, Cabrera returns to the lineup. June 10 is Miggy Milestones Bobblehead Day. During the past few years, the largest crowds at Comerica Park appear whenever Cabrera is nearing a milestone or when there’ll be a celebration for him. This game is no different. This season, Tigers home games have an average attendance of about 20,600, one of the league’s lowest. The attendance for this game is 31,607.

Cabrera hit two doubles and with each one, the numbers in left field — above a sign that says “Miggy Milestones” — changes, from 3,108, to 3,109, to 3,110. To the left of those numbers is 507, his career home runs. That number still hasn’t changed all season. Finally, on June 14, 65 games into the 2023 season, Cabrera hits his first homer. A fastball that lands a few feet back of the first row of section 149 in left field, not far from where the “Miggy Milestone” numbers hang. As he rounds third, he smiles and screams to the Tigers’ dugout.

Every Tiger who hits a home run celebrates by carrying a pair of CCM hockey gloves, a hockey stick and putting on a Detroit Red Wings helmet. Cabrera does the same, and as he struts into the dugout, his teammates — some so young they wore diapers when Cabrera was a rookie — celebrate with him. They pat him on the shoulder and back. They smile. His knee might be hurting, but at that moment, his swing once again feels right.

CABRERA SITS BEHIND a table inside a conference room in Miami’s LoanDepot Park, almost five months since he watched his Venezuelan teammates prepare for the WBC. The morning before, a Thursday in late July, an email said there’d be a press conference the next day, and that it’d be the only time Cabrera would talk with the media. “Only” was written in bold. This is his last press conference in Miami, where he started his career, got called “The Kid,” by former manager Jack McKeon, then got traded during the 2007 winter meetings even though he didn’t want to leave.

Cabrera talks for about 15 minutes, about how special Miami is to him, about winning the World Series here as a rookie in 2003, about how he has two major regrets: He wishes he’d won a WBC for Venezuela and a World Series for Detroit. He says he now sympathizes with part-time players because it’s difficult to not play every day. He’s grateful for the reception he’s gotten during his final season. It’s been so positive it sometimes leaves him confused, because they are cheering for a player who is no longer great.

“I didn’t expect to get applause after striking out,” Cabrera says. “People don’t think I still want to hit, that I still want to compete, that I still want to take the field and win.” He then smiles and even laughs, admitting it feels good to get cheered even when he strikes out.

The following day, in an on-field ceremony, the three mayors of Miami-Dade County, Miami and Doral — where 35% of residents were born in Venezuela — proclaim July 29 as Miguel Cabrera Day. It was part of the Miami’s Venezuelan Heritage Day celebration. Almost 33,000 fans — the highest attendance the Marlins have had since 2017 — clapped and cheered one last time for their countryman.

“It’s something expected,” Patricia Andrade says of Cabrera’s final year, “but that doesn’t keep it from being sad.” She’s from Venezuela but has been in the United States for 36 years. Since January 2016, she’s run a program in Miami, Raíces Venezolanas, that helps recent migrants from her home nation. She’s also a baseball fanatic who was thrilled when the Venezuelan kid came to play for her local team. She bought his jersey and wore it often to Marlins games, where she’d waved a Venezuelan flag and yelled Cabrera’s name. She mourned when he got traded away. And now she celebrates him even though she doesn’t want to see him leave for good.

“It’s a very demanding career and he deserves his rest,” Andrade says of Cabrera. “But that doesn’t keep it from hurting. We’re selfish. Humans are selfish, we don’t want him to leave.”

HERE’S A PARTIAL list of what teams gave Cabrera to honor his career during the last season he played.

In April, during the first full week of the season, the Astros gave Cabrera a black cowboy hat and a bottle from Dusty Baker’s wine label. The next week, the Blue Jays gave him framed photographs of the game, two years before, when he hit his 500th career home run against them.

In May, the Washington Nationals presented Cabrera with a rocking chair, a base signed by their players and a United States flag folded in a triangle. The St. Louis Cardinals gave Cabrera a framed photograph of him crossing home plate after hitting his 400th home run against them.

June is when the Texas Rangers gave Cabrera a horse saddle. The Phillies gave him a piece of the out-of-town scoreboard at Citizens Bank Park. Along with that, a much more personal gift. Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies’ President of Baseball Operations, gave him a framed photo collage of his family with Cabrera.

“I wanted to give him something from me and my family, because he knew them all,” Dombrowski says. He was Marlins general manager when the team signed him at 16, and later was Detroit’s GM when the Tigers shocked everyone, including themselves, by trading for Cabrera. For a few days until the deal got made, Dombrowski and his team locked themselves in a hotel room, afraid a rival team would find out and disrupt their plan to get Cabrera, who he calls, “the best positional player that I’ve been around.”

In July, the Mariners gave Cabrera a green colored Starbucks apron, a gift basket full of coffee and a $7,500 donation for his Miggy Foundation that helps young athletes and their communities. The next series, the Royals gave him framed photographs of the night, 11 years before, when he won the Triple Crown while playing against them.

In August, the Pirates gave Cabrera a painting of himself standing on the Roberto Clemente Bridge, next to the bridge’s namesake and two other Pirates greats, Honus Wagner and Paul Waner. All of them immortalized in the piece of art, presented to Cabrera as he stood close to Jim Leyland, his former manager in Detroit.

Leyland, now 78, says Barry Bonds — who he managed in Pittsburgh — might be the best player ever, and Cabrera is right there with him. “Two thousand twelve was the greatest individual season I’ve ever seen,” Leyland says of Cabrera’s Triple Crown season, the only one of the past 56 years. He earned the first of two consecutive MVPs that year. Leyland still watches Cabrera play; they remain close, even if they don’t talk as often as they once did. He knows Cabrera is a proud man. “The time has come for Miggy to probably hang it up,” Leyland says. “He knows that.”

In early September, the White Sox gave Cabrera a bench made of bases, baseballs and bats. It’s also when the Tigers started a hotline so fans could call or text MIGGY24 to (313) 471-2424 and leave a message thanking and congratulating Cabrera on his career.

“Hello, this is Miguel Cabrera,” the hotline’s recorded message said. “I’m sorry I missed your call. Leave the message after the beep.”

ON SEPT. 29, the Tigers will play the Guardians in a three-game series that in any other year would just be a formality before the long season ends. But this year, those three days will be called “Gracias Miggy.” The weekend-long celebration will include a drone show, a small museum of Cabrera’s accomplishments, music and fireworks. There will be drinks and food from El Rey de las Arepas, Cabrera’s favorite Venezuelan restaurant in the city.

“Cabrera is loved in Detroit,” says Joe Swierlik, who was named the Tigers’ biggest fan in a 2020 contest sponsored by Comerica Park. “For many, he’s the closest monumental player we will ever see.” Swierlik is 38, about a year too young to have been alive the last time Detroit won a World Series. For most of his childhood, he watched the Tigers play in what he calls, “one of the most brutal periods to watch.” Then, for most of his adult life, he watched Cabrera play for his favorite team. He remembers how close they got to winning it all in 2012. As a fan, that’s the one thing he regrets.

“Hall of Fame career,” he says of Cabrera, “but to not get a World Series with the Tigers, that’s the hardest part to bear.”

In recent Detroit history, Steve Yzerman, Justin Verlander, Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson stand out as the city’s other superstars. The last two left during their prime, within range of setting league records. Cabrera’s career is different; he didn’t leave much behind. The man who stands as one of this generation’s greatest hitter hasn’t played anything close to a full season since 2016. And now, in the coming days, he’ll have the last of his over 10,000 at-bats.

When he’s asked what comes next, he says, simply: “I don’t like to get too far ahead.” As he talks, you can still see parts of his youth in his eyes, the baby face, the hints of his mischievous smile. “I like to live day to day,” Cabrera continues. “I try to control what I can control today, and tomorrow, we’ll see what we can do.”

Though he’s mentioned it in the past, right now he’s certain he doesn’t want to coach. He says it’s too hard because when you play, you have some control over the game, but when you sit on the bench and watch, what little control you had is gone. Watching so often from the dugout this past year has only reinforced his thoughts.

Cabrera says he’s prepared himself for life after baseball, but still: He just wishes he could’ve played more in his last season. With more at bats, he’s certain he would’ve found his rhythm and hit more balls. He’s sure of it, because, when he was young, and people still called him Miguelito, he did that better than just about anyone else.

But now his body hurts. He spent his final season searching for the rhythm of his swing. He tried to find it before Detroit’s cold hit again. And now, as September gives way to October, he’ll try to find it again, one last time.

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MLB execs predict the offseason: Where will top free agent pitchers land? Does Tucker get $400 million?

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November 26, 2025

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MLB execs predict the offseason: Where will top free agent pitchers land? Does Tucker get 0 million?

  • Jesse RogersNov 26, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.

The hot stove started simmering early this MLB offseason — and shows no signs of slowing down.

The Seattle Mariners kicked the winter off by re-signing Josh Naylor, followed by the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles pulling off an early trade. Then the Texas Rangers and New York Mets upped the ante with a Marcus Semien-for-Brandon Nimmo swap before the Boston Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday.

Before things heat up again after Thanksgiving, we polled 16 MLB executives on what’s to come the rest of the winter, from which teams will be busiest to where the biggest free agents will land. (Respondents were given the choice to skip any questions, so not every answer has 16 votes.)

Will Kyle Tucker get more than $400 million, and who will give it to him?

Survey says: $400 million? Yes 6, No 10

Who will sign him? New York Yankees 6, Los Angeles Dodgers 4, Toronto Blue Jays 3, Detroit Tigers 1, Philadelphia Phillies 1, Orioles 1

The good news for Tucker is that nearly every executive who voted “No” on him making more than $400 million said it would still be close. If not for a couple of second-half injuries this season, it probably wouldn’t even have been a debate (his 143 OPS+ in 2025 still matched his total from 2023, when he finished fifth in MVP voting). In fact, one executive opined that if Tucker was healthy the entire season, the above dollar figure would start with a five, not a four.

“I see it at $350 million over 10 years,” one exec said. “My prediction is the Yankees.”

“I don’t think he gets to $400 million,” another said. “Seems to me the right number will be in the mid-300’s … but as we always say, it only takes one, so I wouldn’t be completely shocked if it ended up starting with a four. I think he ends up with the Yankees.”

“My prediction is that he will sign an [Alex] Bregman-type deal with a shorter-term, higher AAV and opt-out(s) in hopes of having a monster season in ’26 or ’27 and hitting the [free agent] market again coming off a better year,” another voter responded. “The Yankees seem well positioned for a deal like that.”

The Yankees kept coming up in answers, but they weren’t the only ones. One respondent thought Baltimore or Detroit could put more than $400 million in Tucker’s pocket and the voter who chose Philadelphia did it with the caveat of Kyle Schwarber leaving. But coming in second in our poll were the back-to-back World Series champions.

“I think he does get there on a longer deal with lower AAV with opt-outs,” an executive said. “Hate to say it, but probably Dodgers.”

Another added: “The Dodgers have need in the outfield. Some of their hitters are getting older. They have everything they need on the mound. Now they need to help their offense.”

Where will the top 3 free agent starters with MLB experience sign?

Survey says:

Framber Valdez: Blue Jays 5, New York Mets 4, Orioles 4, Tigers 1, Houston Astros 1
Dylan Cease: Mets 6, Blue Jays 3, Red Sox 2, Atlanta Braves 2, Chicago Cubs, 1, San Francisco Giants 1
Ranger Suarez: Red Sox 4, Phillies 4, Blue Jays 3, Braves 2, Giants 1

The Blue Jays showed up as possibilities for each pitcher, as executives believe they will add to their team after making the World Series and coming so close to winning it all this past season.

“I could see the Blue Jays adding a lefty like Valdez,” one executive said. “He fills a need and might send them back to October baseball.”

The Mets weren’t far behind in the voting, considering their starting staff was a mess late in the year and they relied on rookies down the stretch. The only pitcher several voters believe even has a chance at returning to his old team is Suarez.

“With [Zack] Wheeler out, I think Suarez goes back to Philadelphia,” another exec said. “It’s kind of like Schwarber. They need him more than he needs them.”

A voter who chose Atlanta for Cease called it “low-hanging fruit” since he’s from the area, adding: “The Battery/new ballpark has been a financial boost for them.”

Who will sign Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai?

Survey says: Giants 5, Yankees 3, Dodgers 3, Cubs 2, Blue Jays 1, San Diego Padres 1

The usual suspects, plus Toronto, show up here — most of these teams have been perennial favorites for Japanese players coming over to MLB for the first time. These teams are among those with a leg up on the rest of the competition as they’ve put time, money and energy into recruiting in Japan. At 27 years old, Imai is the right age for a multiyear deal and should benefit from the success of others from Japan that came before him.

“The Giants have been in the hunt [for a Japanese pitcher] in the past; pairing Imai with Logan Webb makes a ton of sense,” one executive said.

Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers were tied for the second-most votes, as they have secured the top three Japanese free agents over the past two offseasons in Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki.

“Dodgers,” another said. “Seems like they have that market somewhat cornered.”

Chicago, who extended a qualifying offer to Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga this winter that was accepted, is also in the mix.

“The Cubs have already stated they need more pitching, and they should have room even after Imanaga returned,” another executive stated.

Which of these hitters — Schwarber, Bregman, Cody Bellinger and Pete Alonso — will return to their original team?

Survey says: Schwarber 7, Alonso 4, Bregman 4

What’s most interesting is not who got votes for this question — Schwarber makes sense as the leading answer here — but that not a single person has Bellinger returning to the Yankees. He provided some much-needed balance to their lineup, so if he walks, perhaps it does open the door for Tucker in New York — as respondents indicated in their answers to the earlier question.

As for Schwarber, Alonso and Bregman, voters had similar lines of thinking: These are players who are crucial to their respective teams, which paves the way for a potential reunion.

“The Phillies need Schwarber more than he needs them, so in pure contract terms, they may have to overpay,” one executive said. “But he’s worth it. He’ll stay.”

“At this point, Alonso is synonymous as a Met,” another voter said. “He’s the most popular player. And he can hit. They need him.”

“Bregman provided so much [leadership] for Boston and that park is perfect for him,” another executive said.

Which free agent contract is going to raise the most eyebrows?

Survey says: Edwin Diaz 2, Bo Bichette 2, Schwarber 2, J.T. Realmuto 2, Zack Littell 1, Lucas Giolito 1, Munetaka Murakami 1

There’s no real consensus here, but one commonality between the players listed above: Nearly all of them are over 30 years old.

Age is something that always gives teams some pause — and the only reason Schwarber shows up here: “The contract length for an aging designated hitter will be the most surprising part,” one voter said.

An executive who chose Diaz in this category simply noted the length of the potential deal and the volatility of the position.

“Diaz is set to cash in, but how many times do we see that backfire for closers?” another voter brought up. “Not always, but often.”

Bichette and Murakami are the only two players given as answers to this question who aren’t yet 30 years old — but that doesn’t mean they don’t have concerns of their own.

“I’m just thinking about the years for Bichette and where he’ll play and all that,” one executive said. “His contract will be most interesting to me.”

“My pick is Murakami,” another said. “Seems like the league is mixed on him due to swing-and-miss concerns.”

What will the Tigers do with Tarik Skubal this offseason — trade him, extend him or let it play out?

Survey says: Let it play out 10, trade him 3, sign/extend him 0

Letting it play out might have been the easy answer here — though, it could also easily be the right one. It kicks the Skubal decision down the road and opens a just-in-case door: If the Tigers’ 2026 season isn’t going well, then dealing him at the July trade deadline will make it a lot easier to swallow.

“I doubt they can afford to extend him, but they also know they can’t win the division without him. I think they roll with him in ’26 unless they get blown away with a trade concept,” one executive said.

Of course, letting the situation play out comes with its own set of risks.

“The longer they wait to trade him, the stickier it gets,” another voter stated. “Value could go down or perhaps worse, if you’re ownership. He gets off to another Cy Young start and fans start screaming even louder to sign him.”

Of course, signing him now would undoubtedly be nice for Detroit fans, but not one respondent thought that would happen this winter.

Who is the top trade candidate of the winter not named Skubal?

Survey says: Joe Ryan 2, Freddy Peralta 2, Ketel Marte 2, MacKenzie Gore 1, Steven Kwan 1, Luis Robert Jr. 1, a Pirates starter 1

There is no shortage of trade candidates this offseason, as there are several teams seemingly willing to move pitching. That’s not the case every winter, but for whatever reason — team friendly salaries, players nearing free agency, payroll shedding — we might see more movement on the mound than usual ahead of the 2026 season. (Two respondents from our poll chose Gray for this question, and they proved to be right after Tuesday’s deal sent the hurler to Boston.)

“The Twins were in the trade market over the summer, testing the waters on Ryan,” one executive said. “I think that leads to him getting moved this winter.”

“I don’t know if Peralta’s salary [$8 million] makes him more or less desirable for the [Milwaukee] Brewers to move him, but they’ll probably do the opposite of what everyone is thinking!” one exec half-joked. “And it’ll work.”

One respondent coyly mentioned a Pirates starter getting moved — but didn’t specify which one. Several mentioned keeping an eye on the Rangers as they look to cut payroll, though the trade of Semien for Nimmo didn’t necessarily accomplish that in the short term. The Rangers don’t seem to be done with their wheeling and dealing.

There were also a couple of surprising answers.

“Sleeper name: Tyler Glasnow,” said one voter. “Feels like the Dodgers can go to Ohtani, Yamamoto, [Blake] Snell, Sasaki, [Emmet] Sheehan and others and use Glasnow on the trade market to cover up holes.”

And what’s an MLB offseason without a blockbuster trade prediction.

“Blockbuster alert: Ketel Marte,” one voter simply stated.

Which smaller-market team will make the most noise this winter?

Survey says: Pittsburgh Pirates 5, Cincinnati Reds 3, Kansas City Royals 3, Miami Marlins 3, Tampa Bay Rays 2

Stop if you’ve heard this before, Pirates fans: Ownership is going to spend. Actually, you probably have not heard that before this winter, but that sentiment has picked up steam early this offseason. Even agents are feeling cautiously optimistic about it.

“The Pirates better pair a good hitter or two with [Paul] Skenes or else we all know what happens,” one executive said. “There’s been enough chatter. I vote for them.”

Either way, there has been more chatter in general about small-market teams spending this winter. Are the Reds one big bat away? Will the Marlins’ surprising season lead them to some aggressive signings? And everyone knows the Royals need hitting.

“Both Pittsburgh and Kansas City have top-of-the-game superstars that they need to support with more money,” one voter said. “The noise from Pittsburgh has already started but I will go with Kansas City because I think they spend the most on one player.”

“Remember, the Rays have new ownership,” another executive said. “It may not show up in payroll this offseason, but it should soon.”

One voter who chose the Reds didn’t mince words: “Their lineup was not very good; they likely know they need to upgrade their position player group. Schwarber went to high school in the Cincinnati suburbs.“

Maybe it’s the year of the small market!

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The Thanksgiving Panic Index: Which NHL teams are the most concerned?

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4 hours ago

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November 26, 2025

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The Thanksgiving Panic Index: Which NHL teams are the most concerned?

  • Greg WyshynskiNov 26, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.

Thanksgiving in the USA. Turkey, pumpkin pie, that parade with all the giant balloons and the time-honored tradition of NHL teams in playoff seeds breathing just a bit easier.

Since the NHL switched to the wild-card format in 2013-14, 77% of teams in a playoff position on Turkey Day go on to make the Stanley Cup playoffs (excluding the two COVID-impacted seasons), according to ESPN Research. In half of those 10 seasons, 13 of 16 teams remained in playoff spots by season’s end. There has never been fewer than 11 or more than 13 Thanksgiving playoff teams that eventually made the cut.

In other words, there are always teams on the outside who get in.

Last season, the Montreal Canadiens (five points back), Ottawa Senators (three back), St. Louis Blues (two back) and Edmonton Oilers (one back) were not in playoff spots at Thanksgiving and still made the postseason tournament. Over the past 10 non-COVID seasons, teams on the outside that eventually made the postseason where 2.8 points back of a playoff seed.

For some teams, it’s time to panic. But panic isn’t all-encompassing. There are specific kinds of it, and different intensities to it.

Here is the American Thanksgiving NHL Panic Index, beginning with the teams that are feeling the least indigestion at the dinner table.

Complete nirvana

Colorado Avalanche

They have reached a stage of spiritual enlightenment. As the Buddha taught, if one scores all the goals (4.00 per game through 22 games, best in the NHL) and allows the fewest (2.18 goals against per game, best in the NHL) then that is the path to many victories. They are in a state where suffering has been extinguished, with an .841 points percentage and one regulation loss as of Nov. 24.

Stathletes has the Avalanche with the best percentage chance of making the playoffs, winning their conference and eventually capturing the Stanley Cup. Namaste, Nathan MacKinnon.

Zero panic

Carolina Hurricanes
Dallas Stars
Tampa Bay Lightning

These three teams are right where many expected they’d be.

The Lightning entered Tuesday atop the Atlantic Division, which is no small feat considering the injury and production concerns they’ve had with some of their impact players — Brayden Point, to be specific. Or perhaps this is just an indictment of the Atlantic Division’s overall quality.

The Hurricanes have the goal differential of a Rod Brind’Amour team (plus-12) except this time it’s their deep offense outpacing their defense, which has missed Jaccob Slavin for all but two games.

Like the Lightning, the Stars have hung tough despite injuries to players such as Thomas Harley and Matt Duchene, thanks in no small part to Jason Robertson (13 goals), Mikko Rantanen (10 goals) and Wyatt Johnston (11 goals), a trio who scored roughly 49% of the team’s goals through 22 games.

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Jason Robertson lights the lamp for Stars

Jason Robertson nets goal for Stars

Panicked, but relatively pleased

Minnesota Wild
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Utah Mammoth
Washington Capitals

The key word here is “relatively.” Every team here has something it can hang its hopes on.

Like the Flyers having located a competent goaltender (Dan Vladar) to play in back of a Rick Tocchet system that’s seventh in expected goals against at 5-on-5. Like the Islanders combining a jolt of adrenaline from the play of rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer with dominant goaltending from Ilya Sorokin to place in the top three in the Metro.

Like the Capitals being right in the Metro mix thanks to their own stellar netminder Logan Thompson (12.6 goals saved above expected) and a dominant offensive start from Tom Wilson — two guys doing everything they can to make the Canadian Olympic team.

The Mammoth are right where they want to be: In a playoff position with young stars such as Logan Cooley in full bloom. The Penguins are where no one expected them to be, as MVP-caliber performances from Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have propelled the offense while surprisingly stout goaltending has done the job defensively.

The Wild, meanwhile, enter Turkey Week on a heater, in a season that has featured both a healthy (and soon-to-be handsomely paid!) Kirill Kaprizov and the emphatic arrival of Jesper Wallstedt, who went 6-0-2 in his first eight starts with a .935 save percentage, a 1.94 goals-against average and a seismic impact on the rookie of the year race.

Panicked until they’re healthy again

Boston Bruins
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
New Jersey Devils
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights
Winnipeg Jets

All of these teams have played through major injuries to major players so far this season.

The back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Panthers were already going to be missing Matthew Tkachuk for the first few months of the season when captain Aleksander Barkov was injured in his first practice, costing him the regular season and potentially the postseason. They’ve treaded water thanks to the outstanding offensive play of Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart (13 goals each), who are doing their part until Tkachuk returns in the coming weeks.

The Devils are doing what they can without Jack Hughes, who needed surgery on his hand after a bizarre accident involving broken glass at a team dinner in Chicago. They’ve obviously done this before, but losing a guy with 10 goals in his first 17 games for up to two months wasn’t ideal. Ditto the Jets and back-to-back Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, who’s out for a month after corrective surgery on a knee issue.

The Bruins (Charlie McAvoy) and Kings (Drew Doughty) are both missing marquee defensemen. The Senators are the happiest of this bunch: Captain and burgeoning podcaster Brady Tkachuk, who was lost to a thumb injury after just three games, is expected back in the lineup shortly. He returns to a Senators team that remained in the playoff mix in his absence.

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Tkachuk brothers announce new podcast on McAfee

Brady and Matthew Tkachuk tell Pat McAfee about their motivation to start a podcast together.

Panicked because the goaltending stinks

Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis Blues

It’s not exactly headline news that the Oilers’ goaltending stinks, what with the whole “we’re not sure who is starting a Stanley Cup Final elimination game” thing last June against Florida.

But so far this season it has gone from being an Achilles heel to a gangrenous leg. Edmonton has the second worst save percentage (ahead of Nashville) and is fourth worst in the NHL in goals saved above expected. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard continue to have their moments of respectable average play — and atrocious play, like Skinner giving up four goals on eight shots to Dallas on Tuesday — but stop us if you’ve heard this before: a Connor McDavid team is being undercut by its goaltending.

The Blues are another team whose goaltenders haven’t played well off the hop. Stathletes has Jordan Binnington at minus-8.75 goals saved above expected in all situations, and crease-mate Joel Hofer at minus-6.62. St. Louis is 29th in save percentage (.869) through 23 games.

The problem for the Blue Jackets and Red Wings is imbalance. Detroit’s Cam Talbot has played just above expected in 13 starts, putting up respectable numbers while going 9-3-0. But John Gibson, acquired from Anaheim to solidify the tandem, has been anything but solid in 12 appearances, with a minus-3.16 goals saved above expected and what could end up being the worst save percentage of his career.

Meanwhile, Columbus watched Jet Greaves rocket out of the gate to take the starting goaltender job. He has a 7-4-3 record in 14 starts with a solid .904 save percentage, but his numbers have come back to the pack just a little. The bigger issue is that veteran Elvis Merzlikins has seen his early returns (4-1-0, .915 save percentage in October) squandered in losing his next four appearances. Columbus went from a team save percentage in the top five down to 16th overall (.896).

The problem for the Canadiens? Early-season bubbles popping. Rookie Jakub Dobes had a promising start for the Habs, going 6-0-0 in October with a .930 save percentage to help balance out the terrible season that Sam Montembeault is having (.852 save percentage, minus-12.92 goals saved above expected). But Dobes has had a rough November: 1-2-3 with an .843 save percentage behind an increasingly injured Canadiens team. He’s now playing well below expected (minus-5.72 goals saved above expected).

Regression panicked

Anaheim Ducks
Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Kraken

PDO is a hockey metric that combines a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage into a single number. It’s considered a measure of “puck luck,” while also acting as a predictor of sorts: Teams with an uncharacteristically high PDO are bound to regress to the mean, while those below average should swing upward at some point.

Entering Tuesday, the Blackhawks were third in PDO (1.029) at 5-on-5 after finishing 25th last season. Much of that credit goes to goalie Spencer Knight‘s career-redefining season, leading the league in goals saved above expected (plus-15.5, per Money Puck) and sporting a .924 save percentage. Offensively, they’re shooting 12.6%, second in the NHL. Chicago shot 11.2% last season. If Knight is as good as he has looked in the past 15 games, the Blackhawks might stick around for a bit.

The Kraken are fifth in PDO (1.023) thanks to the best 5-on-5 save percentage in the league (.938). Raise your hand if you expected Matt Murray (.952), Philipp Grubauer (.935) and Joey Daccord (.927) to do what they’ve been doing at even strength this season. Anyone? Anyone? The Lane Lambert effect as head coach does mean the Kraken are a bit offensively challenged, ranking 18th in team shooting percentage (10.7%). The goaltending has them in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving. Will it hold?

The Sharks are right behind the Kraken (1.022) after 23 games, fueled by the fifth-best shooting percentage in the league — thanks, Macklin “20.9%” Celebrini — and goaltending by Yaroslav Askarov, who Money Puck has near the top of the league in goals saved above expected (plus-8.51). Youth and depth might catch up with them eventually, but boy are they fun.

Then come to the Ducks at seventh in PDO (1.020). They were eighth in save percentage at 5-on-5 though 22 games, thanks to Vezina Trophy-worthy netminding by Lukas Dostal (.917 even-strength save percentage) papering over the second-worst 5-on-5 expected goals against in the league. Offensively, they’re a juggernaut, averaging 3.59 goals per game in 22 games, second only to Colorado. There are reasons to believe that offense will keep rolling. The Ducks’ playoff fate depends on the other end of the ice.

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Cutter Gauthier nets OT winner for the Ducks

Cutter Gauthier scores the winning goal to give the Ducks a 4-3 overtime victory over the Golden Knights.

Existential dread

Buffalo Sabres

When things went poorly for the Sabres in their first 22 games, like when they dropped eight of nine games, the reaction was “here we go again.”

When things go well for the Sabres, like when they won four of five games heading into Thanksgiving, the reaction was the most guarded optimism imaginable with an impending sense of doom — which is understandable when every season since the last playoff appearance in 2011 has either been a tease or a tank.

Through 22 games, Money Puck gave the Sabres a 7.5% chance of making the playoffs. But Stathletes put their odds at a robust 33.4%. There’s no better example of the divergent paths ahead for this Buffalo team.

If Tage Thompson continues to dominate, if Mattias Samuelsson and Rasmus Dahlin remain a bedrock duo, if they can squeeze out enough goaltending success … maybe the drought ends? Or maybe this ends up being the 15th consecutive “wait ’til next year.”

Extremely panicked

Calgary Flames
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs

Entering Wednesday night, there was only one team in the Eastern Conference with a points percentage under .500: The Maple Leafs (.477 in 22 games), who were last in the East. Star center Auston Matthews played in only 17 of those games. His return will help, and they’re certainly missing other injured players like Chris Tanev.

But there are so many other malfunctions around the Leafs — middling 5-on-5 play, terrible special teams, below-average goaltending and a goals-against average near the league’s basement — that it’s hard to diagnose what needs to change to turn things around. Although the firing of coach Craig Berube has been a popular method discussed by fans and media.

Calgary has dug itself a considerable hole in a suddenly more competitive division. But the Flames (.396 save percentage) recently located a pulse after president of hockey operations Don Maloney told Sportsnet the team isn’t “throwing in the towel” or looking at a total teardown of its roster. Whether that’s the right tact in the long run is up for debate. But it wasn’t great news for fans who were hoping their contending teams might add someone like Nazem Kadri to the mix via trade.

Unlike the Leafs (4.3%) and Flames (5.3%), the Rangers had a solid chance (42.7%) of making the postseason, according to Stathletes. When they hunker down defensively in front of Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers can be a very effective defensive team. But they’ve been a mess offensively since the start of the season, with players like captain J.T. Miller failing to hit their typical point paces. They’re inconsistent and haven’t soothed concerns about their depth. But it’s that lack of offense that has the Blueshirts a little jittery about their fortunes this season.

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Igor Shesterkin robs Avalanche with save

Igor Shesterkin robs Avalanche with save

Beyond panicked

Nashville Predators
Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks were the first team to blink this season. After amassing a .435 points percentage through 23 games, president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford told Postmedia on Tuesday that the Canucks need to get younger and confirmed that they were considering trades for veteran pending free agents like Evander Kane.

“Use whatever word people like, whether it’s somewhat of a rebuild, not a full blown rebuild, but a rebuild-retool, whatever,” Rutherford said. “It’s the position we’ve been in since the J.T. Miller trade [last season].”

Are the Predators next? GM Barry Trotz told ESPN this week that the team’s next seven games will determine his approach to the rest of their season. He’s receiving calls from other teams about his veteran players. He has had talks with their agents about what could be down the road. They’re not open for business yet, but with a .364 points percentage after 22 games, how long before that happens?

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CFP Bubble Watch after Tuesday’s ranking: Who needs a win during Rivalry Week?

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14 hours ago

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November 26, 2025

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CFP Bubble Watch after Tuesday's ranking: Who needs a win during Rivalry Week?

Miami is inching closer but still needs some help.

With the Hurricanes creeping up to No. 12 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hope of having two teams qualify for the 12-team field is still alive. Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they’re better than Notre Dame — and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion — even if it’s No. 18 Virginia — is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. That’s evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.

Though the Canes have no margin for error and could still use some help above them, they might get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped one spot above No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating that the Rebels might not recover from a second stumble.

With Rivalry Week on the horizon, there are still plenty of scenarios that can unfold — and hope is still oozing from the bubble.

Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it might face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.

First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee would be the first step, but they’d also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s conceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, and Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of that would matter, though, without a win in Knoxville.

Still in the mix: None.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its place in the top 10. The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ résumé enough to jump Ole Miss, and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room. Oregon now has a 16.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it must beat Washington and it needs Michigan to defeat Ohio State.

First team out: Michigan. The No. 15 Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State and a loss by Indiana or Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head defeat to USC because the Trojans have three losses and dropped behind the Wolverines to No. 17 in the latest ranking. The loss to No. 8 Oklahoma, though, will probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, will have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.

Still in the mix: None.

Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin

Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech

Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech does that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.

First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.

Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a BYU loss or a win and losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas and both BYU and Arizona State win and Texas Tech loses.

Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

ACC

Would be in: Miami

Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 14.2% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. They must win at Pitt on Saturday, and it helped that the committee ranked the Panthers No. 22 on Tuesday night. Miami’s loss to SMU no longer looks as bad as it initially did after the Mustangs cracked the CFP top 25 at No. 21. Miami is getting some help, but it has also helped itself by winning three straight games by at least 17 points. Saturday at Virginia Tech brought Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been awaiting. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, and the Canes are within range of the committee revisiting the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re both in the same conversation as Alabama and BYU. If Miami can win at Pitt, the committee will certainly factor that into its discussion during the fifth ranking. It’s important to remember, though, that head-to-head isn’t the only factor in the room. The entire body of work is considered, and right now, the committee is more impressed by the Irish.

First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. And with No. 21 SMU now one of five ranked teams from the conference, the ACC title game is likely to feature two ranked opponents. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter two of which are above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.

Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get into the ACC championship game with a win and a loss by SMU or UVA. Duke can get in with a win plus losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of playing Georgia.

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games. If Miami beats Pitt, the committee will compare that common opponent with Notre Dame, which also beat Pitt. They would continue to talk about the head-to-head tiebreaker, but that’s not the final determinant. Both Miami and Notre Dame can earn at-large bids, but if there are two Big 12 teams in, someone currently in the top 10 will have to be excluded.

Group of 5

Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chances to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave maintained their spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following the 37-13 win at Temple, their largest margin of victory this season.

Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference title game, and multiple tiebreaker scenarios are still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — because Navy was not ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win and a loss by Tulane or North Texas.

Bracket

Based on the committee’s fourth ranking, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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