Reduced chance of winter power blackouts despite loss of coal back-up – grid operator
The risk of the lights going out is down this winter, with power margins almost back to levels seen before the energy crisis, according to an eagerly awaited report.
National Grid ESO’s annual winter outlook, which assesses its own readiness for the coldest months of November to March, said it only saw a matter of minutes when the balance between supply and demand would not be met.
It forecast a margin of 7.4% capacity.
That means it expects to have 4.4 gigawatts (GW) of power in hand to meet its reliability standard.
The figure represents an improvement on the 6.3% (3.7 GW) that was expected this time last year when Russia’s war with Ukraine – and sanctions to punish Russia for its invasion – squeezed gas supplies across Europe, forcing energy prices up to unprecedented levels.
Struggles for nuclear output in France last year also placed a greater strain on UK resources.
The latest report concluded, however, that the Grid was still likely to have to issue so-called “margin notices” over winter for periods when the supply-demand balance is especially tight.
These are calls for power generators to provide as much as they can to the network.
That was despite more domestic generation being available, the Grid said, along with increased levels of battery storage and the ability to share power with other nations including France and Belgium.
The operator will also have the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), introduced last year, to fall back on again as an additional tool.
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June: Blackout prevention scheme to stay
The scheme will see signatory households and businesses paid for turning off power-intensive appliances at times when power availability is stretched.
The DFS was utilised during a cold snap at the end of last winter following numerous test events that the Grid said had, when combined, saved enough electricity to power nearly 10 million homes.
Craig Dyke, the ESO’s head of national control, said of the blackout risk: “Compared to last year it is almost going back to around where it was before last winter.
“So the risks that we talked about last year, the probability of them occurring, are much, much lower.”
The main challenge facing the Grid this autumn is the loss of five coal-fired power plants that were held in reserve last winter.
They were able to be fired up in readiness to produce electricity when, for example, the wind did not blow but talks with EDF and Drax during the spring failed to produce a deal on new standby contracts.
Because there is no coal back-up to call on if margins become tight, gas and nuclear capacity becomes more essential.
A separate report by National Gas, which operates Britain’s gas grid, said it did not foresee higher exports to Europe this year due to improved storage levels on the continent.
As such, it believed there would be less pressure on domestic supplies and that less gas would be needed to produce electricity due to improved output from other sources, especially wind.
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Any unexpected loss of wind, gas or nuclear generation means the country would be at the mercy of available power in neighbouring countries through the so-called interconnector network.
There are five in operation, connecting the UK with France, The Netherlands, Belgium and Norway.
A sixth interconnector, Viking Link, is still under construction but is expected to join the UK with Denmark late this year.
Once operational, the two countries will be able to share enough electricity to power up to 1.4 million homes.
Over the course of a year, the UK tends to import more power than it exports through these arrangements.
This can add to bills depending on the power sources utilised, though the UK’s leading position in wind power can also work in its favour.
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Energy price cap falls
The fact remains, however, that energy bills remain around £1,000 per year higher than typical pre-pandemic levels.
A household paying by direct debit for gas and electricity will face an average annual charge of £1,923 from October to December, a fall of about £150 on the previous three months.
Experts warn that the loss of universal government support for bills will mean many households will be worse off this winter than last, particularly when industry forecasts suggest the average bill will be back above £2,000 when the next price cap adjustment is made for January-March.
Fresh appeals have been made for information on what would have been the 20th birthday of Ellis Cox, who was shot dead in Liverpool last June.
A number of people have been arrested in connection with the murder at Liver Industrial Estate, but no one has been charged yet.
The 19-year-old’s family and police have paid tribute to him and called for those with information to come forward.
He was shot in the back after a confrontation between his friends and another group of up to three males on Sunday 23 June.
Ellis Cox who was shot dead in June 2024. Pic: Merseyside Police
His mother Carolyn paid tribute in an appeal to coincide with what would have been his 20th birthday.
“He was so kind… so laid back, so calm, so mature for his age. And he was just funny. Very funny.
“He was my baby… no mum should have to bury a child. He was my life. And I don’t know what to do without him.”
Mum Carolyn Cox (left) and aunt Julie O’Toole (right) are looking for answers
Meanwhile, his aunt Julie O’Toole said he was “the sort of person I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone to say anything negative about. He was loyal, fiercely loyal… everything was about his family”.
To pay tribute to Ellis, Liverpool City Council will be lighting up the Cunard Building and Liverpool Town Hall in orange on Saturday.
DCI Steve McGrath does not believe Ellis was involved in criminality
Detective Chief Inspector Steve McGrath, the senior investigating officer, spoke about the information gathered so far, six months on from Mr Cox’s murder.
“I’m satisfied that the group that he was with was probably the target… and I would say that’s got something in relation to do with localised drug dealing in that area. But Ellis had no involvement in that whatsoever,” he said.
He added that police are looking for “really significant pieces of evidence now”, including “trying to recover the firearm that was used in relation to this, looking to recover the bikes that were used by the offenders”.
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Mrs Cox also appealed for people to come forward with information.
“If you know anything, don’t let us get to [his] next birthday and still know nothing.
“We need to get justice for Ellis. And we need to get the people who took him from us off the streets.”
UK
Reward of £20,000 offered to identify parents of three siblings abandoned as babies over eight years
A £20,000 reward is being offered for information that leads to the identification of the parents of three siblings found abandoned in London over eight years.
The Metropolitan Police said that despite more than 450 hours of CCTV being reviewed, the parents of the three children, known as Elsa, Roman and Harry, remain unidentified.
However, it is believed their mother has lived in an area of east London “over the past six years”.
Elsa was believed to be less than an hour old when she was found by a dog walker on 18 January last year, in East Ham, east London.
In the months that followed it was found that she had two siblings who were also abandoned in similar circumstances, in the same area of London, in 2017 and 2019.
On Saturday, police said the independent group Crimestoppers had offered a £20,000 reward for information passed to the charity, which will expire on 18 April.
Detective Inspector Jamie Humm, of the Met’s child abuse investigation team, said: “We have carried out extensive inquiries over the past year to try and locate Elsa’s parents.
Baby Roman. Pic: Met Police/PA
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“This has involved reviewing over 450 hours of CCTV and completing a full DNA structure of the mother.
“We have serious concerns for the wellbeing of the parents, especially the mother, and are continuing to work closely with Newham Council and appeal for the public’s help for information.
“I believe that someone in the area will have been aware of the mother’s pregnancies and that within the community there may be (or) have been concerns for this mother’s welfare.
“Thanks to the DNA work of forensic colleagues, police will be able to eliminate any unconnected person quickly and easily, as such I would ask you to contact police with confidence.”
The baby was found at the junction of Greenway and High Street South in Newham. Pic: PA
Elsa was found wrapped in a towel in a reusable shopping bag, of which police have also released a new image, and was kept warm by the dog walker. She was uninjured.
Police said at the time that it was “highly likely” that she was born after a “concealed pregnancy”.
The Boots bag in which Baby Elsa was found abandoned by a dog walker in Newham on 18 January 2024. Pic: Met Police/PA
The BBC reported that at an initial court hearing, East London Family Court was told it took doctors three hours to record Elsa’s temperature because of the cold, and the Met Office said that temperatures dropped to as low as -4C on the night she was found.
Hospital staff named her Elsa in a reference to the character from the film Frozen.
The police investigation into the identity of the children’s parents continues, and anyone with information is asked to call police on 101 or post @MetCC ref Operation Wolcott.
People can also contact Crimestoppers anonymously at any time on 0800 555 111 or via Crimestoppers-uk.org.
Fresh appeals have been made for information on what would have been the 20th birthday of Ellis Cox, who was shot dead in Liverpool last June.
A number of people have been arrested in connection with the murder at Liver Industrial Estate, but no one has been charged yet.
The 19-year-old’s family and police have paid tribute to him and called for those with information to come forward.
He was shot in the back after a confrontation between his friends and another group of up to three males on Sunday 23 June.
Ellis Cox who was shot dead in June 2024. Pic: Merseyside Police
His mother Carolyn paid tribute in an appeal to coincide with what would have been his 20th birthday.
“He was so kind… so laid back, so calm, so mature for his age. And he was just funny. Very funny.
“He was my baby… no mum should have to bury a child. He was my life. And I don’t know what to do without him.”
Mum Carolyn Cox (left) and aunt Julie O’Toole (right) are looking for answers
Ellis’ mum described him as ‘kind” and “funny. Pic: Merseyside Police
Meanwhile, his aunt Julie O’Toole said he was “the sort of person I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone to say anything negative about. He was loyal, fiercely loyal… everything was about his family”.
To pay tribute to Ellis, Liverpool City Council will be lighting up the Cunard Building and Liverpool Town Hall in orange on Saturday.
DCI Steve McGrath does not believe Ellis was involved in criminality
Detective Chief Inspector Steve McGrath, the senior investigating officer, spoke about the information gathered so far, six months on from Mr Cox’s murder.
“I’m satisfied that the group that he was with was probably the target… and I would say that’s got something in relation to do with localised drug dealing in that area. But Ellis had no involvement in that whatsoever,” he said.
He added that police are looking for “really significant pieces of evidence now”, including “trying to recover the firearm that was used in relation to this, looking to recover the bikes that were used by the offenders”.
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Mrs Cox also appealed for people to come forward with information.
“If you know anything, don’t let us get to [his] next birthday and still know nothing.
“We need to get justice for Ellis. And we need to get the people who took him from us off the streets.”
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