The risk of the lights going out is down this winter, with power margins almost back to levels seen before the energy crisis, according to an eagerly awaited report.
National Grid ESO’s annual winter outlook, which assesses its own readiness for the coldest months of November to March, said it only saw a matter of minutes when the balance between supply and demand would not be met.
It forecast a margin of 7.4% capacity.
That means it expects to have 4.4 gigawatts (GW) of power in hand to meet its reliability standard.
The figure represents an improvement on the 6.3% (3.7 GW) that was expected this time last year when Russia’s war with Ukraine – and sanctions to punish Russia for its invasion – squeezed gas supplies across Europe, forcing energy prices up to unprecedented levels.
Struggles for nuclear output in France last year also placed a greater strain on UK resources.
The latest report concluded, however, that the Grid was still likely to have to issue so-called “margin notices” over winter for periods when the supply-demand balance is especially tight.
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These are calls for power generators to provide as much as they can to the network.
That was despite more domestic generation being available, the Grid said, along with increased levels of battery storage and the ability to share power with other nations including France and Belgium.
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The operator will also have the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), introduced last year, to fall back on again as an additional tool.
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June: Blackout prevention scheme to stay
The scheme will see signatory households and businesses paid for turning off power-intensive appliances at times when power availability is stretched.
The DFS was utilised during a cold snap at the end of last winter following numerous test events that the Grid said had, when combined, saved enough electricity to power nearly 10 million homes.
Craig Dyke, the ESO’s head of national control, said of the blackout risk: “Compared to last year it is almost going back to around where it was before last winter.
“So the risks that we talked about last year, the probability of them occurring, are much, much lower.”
The main challenge facing the Grid this autumn is the loss of five coal-fired power plants that were held in reserve last winter.
They were able to be fired up in readiness to produce electricity when, for example, the wind did not blow but talks with EDF and Drax during the spring failed to produce a deal on new standby contracts.
Because there is no coal back-up to call on if margins become tight, gas and nuclear capacity becomes more essential.
A separate report by National Gas, which operates Britain’s gas grid, said it did not foresee higher exports to Europe this year due to improved storage levels on the continent.
As such, it believed there would be less pressure on domestic supplies and that less gas would be needed to produce electricity due to improved output from other sources, especially wind.
Any unexpected loss of wind, gas or nuclear generation means the country would be at the mercy of available power in neighbouring countries through the so-called interconnector network.
There are five in operation, connecting the UK with France, The Netherlands, Belgium and Norway.
A sixth interconnector, Viking Link, is still under construction but is expected to join the UK with Denmark late this year.
Once operational, the two countries will be able to share enough electricity to power up to 1.4 million homes.
Over the course of a year, the UK tends to import more power than it exports through these arrangements.
This can add to bills depending on the power sources utilised, though the UK’s leading position in wind power can also work in its favour.
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Energy price cap falls
The fact remains, however, that energy bills remain around £1,000 per year higher than typical pre-pandemic levels.
A household paying by direct debit for gas and electricity will face an average annual charge of £1,923 from October to December, a fall of about £150 on the previous three months.
Experts warn that the loss of universal government support for bills will mean many households will be worse off this winter than last, particularly when industry forecasts suggest the average bill will be back above £2,000 when the next price cap adjustment is made for January-March.
Manchester Arena bomb plotter Hashem Abedi has been charged with three counts of attempted murder.
It comes after four prison officers were injured in an attack at the maximum security prison HMP Frankland in Co Durham on 12 April.
Abedi has also been charged with one count of assault occasioning actual bodily harm and one count of unauthorised possession of a knife or offensive weapon.
Counter Terrorism Policing North East has said it carried out a “thorough investigation” of the incident with Durham Constabulary and HMP Frankland.
He remains in prison and is due to appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on 18 September.
Three prison officers were taken to hospital with serious injuries following the incident.
Marnie’s first serious relationship came when she was 16-years-old.
Warning: This article contains references to strangulation, coercive control and domestic abuse.
She was naturally excited when a former friend became her first boyfriend.
But after a whirlwind few months, everything changed with a slow, determined peeling away of her personality.
“There was isolation, then it was the phone checking,” says Marnie.
As a survivor of abuse, we are not using her real name.
“When I would go out with my friends or do something, I’d get constant phone calls and messages,” she says.
“I wouldn’t be left alone to sort of enjoy my time with my friends. Sometimes he might turn up there, because I just wasn’t trusted to just go and even do something minor like get my nails done.”
Image: The internet is said to be helping to fuel a rise in domestic abuse among teens. Pic: iStock
He eventually stopped her from seeing friends, shouted at her unnecessarily, and accused her of looking at other men when they would go out.
If she ever had any alone time, he would bombard her with calls and texts; she wasn’t allowed to do anything without him knowing where she was.
He monitored her phone constantly.
“Sometimes I didn’t even know someone had messaged me.
“My mum maybe messaged to ask me where I was. He would delete the message and put my phone away, so then I wouldn’t even have a clue my mum had tried to reach me.”
The toll of what Marnie experienced was only realised 10 years later when she sought help for frequent panic attacks.
She struggled to comprehend the damage her abuser had inflicted when she was diagnosed with PTSD.
This is what psychological abuse and coercive control looks like.
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‘His hands were on my throat – he didn’t stop’
Young women and girls in the UK are increasingly falling victim, with incidents of domestic abuse spiralling among under-25s.
Exclusive data shared with Sky News, gathered by domestic abuse charity Refuge, reveals a disturbing rise in incidents between April 2024 and March 2025.
Psychological abuse was the most commonly reported form of harm, affecting 73% of young women and girls.
Of those experiencing this form of manipulation, 49% said their perpetrator had threatened to harm them and a further 35% said their abuser had threatened to kill them.
Among the 62% of 16-25 year olds surveyed who had reported suffering from physical violence, half of them said they had been strangled or suffocated.
Earlier this year, Sky News reported that school children were asking for advice on strangulation, but Kate Lexen, director of services at charity Tender, says children as young as nine are asking about violent pornography and displaying misogynistic behaviour.
Image: Kate Lexen, director of services at charity Tender
“What we’re doing is preventing what those misogynistic behaviours can then escalate onto,” Ms Lexen says.
Tender has been running workshops and lessons on healthy relationships in primary and secondary schools and colleges for over 20 years.
Children as young as nine ‘talking about strangulation’
Speaking to Sky News, Ms Lexen says new topics are being brought up in sessions, which practitioners and teachers are adapting to.
“We’re finding those Year 5 and Year 6 students, so ages 9, 10 and 11, are talking about strangulation, they’re talking about attitudes that they’ve read online and starting to bring in some of those attitudes from some of those misogynistic influencers.
“There are ways that they’re talking about and to their female teachers.
“We’re finding that from talking to teachers as well that they are really struggling to work out how to broach these topics with the students that they are working with and how to make that a really safe space and open space to have those conversations in an age-appropriate way, which can be very challenging.”
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Hidden domestic abuse deaths
Charities like Tender exist to prevent domestic abuse and sexual violence.
Ms Lexen says without tackling misogynistic behaviours “early on with effective prevention education” then the repercussions, as the data for under 25s proves, will be “astronomical”.
At Refuge, it is already evident. Elaha Walizadeh, senior programme manager for children and young people, says the charity has seen a rise in referrals since last year.
Image: Elaha Walizadeh, senior programme manager for children and young people at Refuge
“We have also seen the dynamics of abuse changing,” she adds. “So with psychological abuse being reported, we’ve seen a rise in that and non-fatal strangulation cases, we’ve seen a rise in as well.
“Our frontline workers are telling us that the young people are telling them usually abuse starts from smaller signs. So things like coercive control, where the perpetrators are stopping them from seeing friends and family. It then builds.”
Misogyny to violent behaviour might seem like a leap.
But experts and survivors are testament to the fact that it is happening.