Reduced chance of winter power blackouts despite loss of coal back-up – grid operator
The risk of the lights going out is down this winter, with power margins almost back to levels seen before the energy crisis, according to an eagerly awaited report.
National Grid ESO’s annual winter outlook, which assesses its own readiness for the coldest months of November to March, said it only saw a matter of minutes when the balance between supply and demand would not be met.
It forecast a margin of 7.4% capacity.
That means it expects to have 4.4 gigawatts (GW) of power in hand to meet its reliability standard.
The figure represents an improvement on the 6.3% (3.7 GW) that was expected this time last year when Russia’s war with Ukraine – and sanctions to punish Russia for its invasion – squeezed gas supplies across Europe, forcing energy prices up to unprecedented levels.
Struggles for nuclear output in France last year also placed a greater strain on UK resources.
The latest report concluded, however, that the Grid was still likely to have to issue so-called “margin notices” over winter for periods when the supply-demand balance is especially tight.
These are calls for power generators to provide as much as they can to the network.
That was despite more domestic generation being available, the Grid said, along with increased levels of battery storage and the ability to share power with other nations including France and Belgium.
The operator will also have the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), introduced last year, to fall back on again as an additional tool.
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The scheme will see signatory households and businesses paid for turning off power-intensive appliances at times when power availability is stretched.
The DFS was utilised during a cold snap at the end of last winter following numerous test events that the Grid said had, when combined, saved enough electricity to power nearly 10 million homes.
Craig Dyke, the ESO’s head of national control, said of the blackout risk: “Compared to last year it is almost going back to around where it was before last winter.
“So the risks that we talked about last year, the probability of them occurring, are much, much lower.”
The main challenge facing the Grid this autumn is the loss of five coal-fired power plants that were held in reserve last winter.
They were able to be fired up in readiness to produce electricity when, for example, the wind did not blow but talks with EDF and Drax during the spring failed to produce a deal on new standby contracts.
Because there is no coal back-up to call on if margins become tight, gas and nuclear capacity becomes more essential.
A separate report by National Gas, which operates Britain’s gas grid, said it did not foresee higher exports to Europe this year due to improved storage levels on the continent.
As such, it believed there would be less pressure on domestic supplies and that less gas would be needed to produce electricity due to improved output from other sources, especially wind.
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Any unexpected loss of wind, gas or nuclear generation means the country would be at the mercy of available power in neighbouring countries through the so-called interconnector network.
There are five in operation, connecting the UK with France, The Netherlands, Belgium and Norway.
A sixth interconnector, Viking Link, is still under construction but is expected to join the UK with Denmark late this year.
Once operational, the two countries will be able to share enough electricity to power up to 1.4 million homes.
Over the course of a year, the UK tends to import more power than it exports through these arrangements.
This can add to bills depending on the power sources utilised, though the UK’s leading position in wind power can also work in its favour.
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Energy price cap falls
The fact remains, however, that energy bills remain around £1,000 per year higher than typical pre-pandemic levels.
A household paying by direct debit for gas and electricity will face an average annual charge of £1,923 from October to December, a fall of about £150 on the previous three months.
Experts warn that the loss of universal government support for bills will mean many households will be worse off this winter than last, particularly when industry forecasts suggest the average bill will be back above £2,000 when the next price cap adjustment is made for January-March.
A body has been found in the search for 23-year-old runner Jenny Hall.
She was last seen leaving her home in Barracks Farm, County Durham, in her car just after 3pm on Tuesday.
Police said there are not thought to be any suspicious circumstances after a body was found in a very remote area in Teesdale on Sunday morning, five days after she went missing.
Jenny Hall went missing on Tuesday. Pic: Durham Constabulary
“We’re sorry to report that officers searching for missing woman Jenny Hall, have sadly found a body,” Durham Constabulary said in a statement.
“Officers carried out an extensive search alongside specialist partners and have been working around-the-clock to locate Jenny after she went missing on February 18.
“The body was found in a very remote area in Teesdale just after 9.30am today.
“Formal identification has yet to take place. Jenny’s family have been notified and are currently being supported by specialist officers. They have asked for privacy at this devasting time.
“It is not believed there are any suspicious circumstances and a file will be prepared for the coroner.”
A major police search was launched after Ms Hall’s disappearance.
Her car, a red Ford Focus, was found on Wednesday parked on the B6278, near remote moorland between Eggleston and Stanhope.
Mountain rescue teams, specialist drones and sniffer dogs had been combing the Hamsterley Forest and the surrounding areas, where there are a number of running trails, this week.
Digital intelligence officers also carried out extensive inquiries into Ms Hall’s mobile phone, smart watch and running apps.
A fresh amber weather warning for heavy rain has been issued by the Met Office – with much of the UK already on alert for high winds and showers.
Northern Ireland, Scotland and the UK’s west coast and the Midlands have yellow warnings for wind on Sunday – meaning the possibility of transport delays and short-term power cuts.
There are also rain warnings in place for several parts of western UK.
The new amber warning has been issued for rain in south and central Wales and is in force from 3pm on Sunday to 6am on Monday.
An amber warning means danger to life from floodwater, homes and businesses are likely to be flooded, and there is a chance some communities will be cut off.
Winds across the west of the UK will increase throughout the morning with gusts up to 70mph in exposed areas, the Met Office said.
Zoe Hutin, a meteorologist at the forecaster, said Sunday is expected to be the “worst day” before conditions improve.
“The wind warning itself for the mainland UK ends at 6pm, but we can expect to continue to see quite blustery conditions even into the evening as the mainland rain itself pushes through.”
She added: “By the time people get up on Monday, we’ll still have some of the residual rain from that front in the far south-east of the country, and quite cloudy across England as well.
“But actually elsewhere, it could be a decent start.”
The Met Office’s yellow weather warnings for much of England and Scotland came into force at 6am and are expected to run until 6pm on Sunday.
A separate yellow warning for Northern Ireland came into force at 3am and runs until 3pm.
Rain and high winds are expected across the west of the UK
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People who have noticed some slightly higher temperatures the last couple of days may be dismayed at the latest predictions.
“Through the week, those temperatures are trending back down,” Ms Hutin said.
“And so it will be getting cooler each day, but they will actually just be recovering to around average for the time of year. So it won’t be cold.
“It will just be returning back to where we would expect to be for this time of February.”
Sir Keir Starmer has said the United States “is right” about the UK and Europe needing to take more responsibility for defence and security.
The prime minister, speaking at the Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow on Sunday, said he is clear Britain “will take a leading responsibility” in protecting the continent.
“Instability in Europe always washes up on our shores,” he said.
“And this is a generational moment. I’ve been saying for some time that we Europeans – including the United Kingdom – have to do more for our defence and security. The US is right about that.”
He added “we can’t cling to the comforts of the past” as it is “time to take responsibility for our security”.
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Donald Trump sparked an emergency meeting of European leaders this week after he said European NATO members should spend more on defence, while the US should spend less.
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Sir Keir has said he will set out a path for the UK to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence, up from the current 2.3%, but has not indicated when that will be.
It is believed he may announce the details when he visits Mr Trump in Washington DC on Thursday, bringing forward the announcement that was expected in the spring when a defence spending review is published.
The prime minister reiterated the UK will “play our role” if required in Ukraine following a peace agreement after he earlier this week said the UK would send troops to be part of a peacekeeping force.
Sir Keir will meet Donald Trump in the White House on Thursday. Pic: AP
However, his comments caused a row with Germany and Italy who said it was premature to commit to boots on the ground, although France agreed with the UK.
Sir Keir said: “As we enter a new phase in this conflict, we must now deepen our solidarity even further.”
He added: “There can be no discussion about Ukraine without Ukraine.
“And the people of Ukraine must have long-term security.”
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This week has seen US officials meet their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia to discuss Ukraine – which has been met with indignation by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as none of his team were invited.
No Europeans were invited either, sparking concern the US is pandering to Vladimir Putin.
Sir Keir has promised Mr Zelenskyy he will make the case for safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty when he meets with Mr Trump, who has called the Ukrainian president a dictator.
Mr Trump also said Sir Keir and French President Emmanuel Macron, who will visit the White House too this week, “haven’t done anything” to end the war.
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