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The risk of the lights going out is down this winter, with power margins almost back to levels seen before the energy crisis, according to an eagerly awaited report.

National Grid ESO’s annual winter outlook, which assesses its own readiness for the coldest months of November to March, said it only saw a matter of minutes when the balance between supply and demand would not be met.

It forecast a margin of 7.4% capacity.

That means it expects to have 4.4 gigawatts (GW) of power in hand to meet its reliability standard.

The figure represents an improvement on the 6.3% (3.7 GW) that was expected this time last year when Russia’s war with Ukraine – and sanctions to punish Russia for its invasion – squeezed gas supplies across Europe, forcing energy prices up to unprecedented levels.

Struggles for nuclear output in France last year also placed a greater strain on UK resources.

The latest report concluded, however, that the Grid was still likely to have to issue so-called “margin notices” over winter for periods when the supply-demand balance is especially tight.

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These are calls for power generators to provide as much as they can to the network.

That was despite more domestic generation being available, the Grid said, along with increased levels of battery storage and the ability to share power with other nations including France and Belgium.

The operator will also have the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), introduced last year, to fall back on again as an additional tool.

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June: Blackout prevention scheme to stay

The scheme will see signatory households and businesses paid for turning off power-intensive appliances at times when power availability is stretched.

The DFS was utilised during a cold snap at the end of last winter following numerous test events that the Grid said had, when combined, saved enough electricity to power nearly 10 million homes.

Craig Dyke, the ESO’s head of national control, said of the blackout risk: “Compared to last year it is almost going back to around where it was before last winter.

“So the risks that we talked about last year, the probability of them occurring, are much, much lower.”

The main challenge facing the Grid this autumn is the loss of five coal-fired power plants that were held in reserve last winter.

They were able to be fired up in readiness to produce electricity when, for example, the wind did not blow but talks with EDF and Drax during the spring failed to produce a deal on new standby contracts.

Because there is no coal back-up to call on if margins become tight, gas and nuclear capacity becomes more essential.

A separate report by National Gas, which operates Britain’s gas grid, said it did not foresee higher exports to Europe this year due to improved storage levels on the continent.

As such, it believed there would be less pressure on domestic supplies and that less gas would be needed to produce electricity due to improved output from other sources, especially wind.

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Any unexpected loss of wind, gas or nuclear generation means the country would be at the mercy of available power in neighbouring countries through the so-called interconnector network.

There are five in operation, connecting the UK with France, The Netherlands, Belgium and Norway.

A sixth interconnector, Viking Link, is still under construction but is expected to join the UK with Denmark late this year.

Once operational, the two countries will be able to share enough electricity to power up to 1.4 million homes.

Over the course of a year, the UK tends to import more power than it exports through these arrangements.

This can add to bills depending on the power sources utilised, though the UK’s leading position in wind power can also work in its favour.

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Energy price cap falls

The fact remains, however, that energy bills remain around £1,000 per year higher than typical pre-pandemic levels.

A household paying by direct debit for gas and electricity will face an average annual charge of £1,923 from October to December, a fall of about £150 on the previous three months.

Experts warn that the loss of universal government support for bills will mean many households will be worse off this winter than last, particularly when industry forecasts suggest the average bill will be back above £2,000 when the next price cap adjustment is made for January-March.

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Trump hails ‘total reset’ with China as trade tariffs slashed

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Trump hails 'total reset' with China as trade tariffs slashed

The US and China have agreed to slash trade tariffs on each other, a move Donald Trump has said was part of a “total reset” in relations.

The president said the 90-day truce followed “very friendly” talks between the two sides in Switzerland over the weekend and those discussions would continue..

“China was being hurt very badly. They were closing up factories they were having a lot of unrest and they were very happy to do something with us”, he told reporters at the White House.

The breakthrough was announced early on Monday – to the delight of fincial markets – by the leader of the US delegation, treasury secretary Scott Bessent.

US trade representative Jamieson Greer confirmed so-called reciprocal tariffs were now at 10% each.

In real terms, it meant the US is reducing its 145% tariff to 30% on Chinese goods. A tariff of 20% had been implemented on China when President Donald Trump took office, over what his administration said was a failure to stop illegal drugs entering the US.

China has agreed to reduce its 125% retaliatory tariffs to 10% on US goods.

Sector-specific tariffs, such as the 25% tax on cars, aluminium and steel, remain in place.

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Tariffs, taxes on imports of more than 100%, had been imposed on both sides. China was the only country exempt from a 90-day pause on the “retaliatory” tariffs above the base 10% levies applied by America.

Major retailers had been warning Mr Trump of empty shelves as US importers pause shipments.

Mr Bessent said after a weekend of negotiations in Switzerland, the countries had a mechanism for continued talks.

It’s the second major trade announcement made by the US in the last week, after a deal was secured with the UK on Thursday.

The move signals a willingness from the Americans to make deals on tariffs.

Why Trump blinked in US-China trade war


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Ed Conway

Economics and data editor

@EdConwaySky

Of all the fronts in Donald Trump’s trade war, none was as dramatic and economically threatening as the sky-high tariffs he imposed on China.

There are a couple of reasons: first, because China is and was the single biggest importer of goods into the US and, second, because of the sheer height of the tariffs imposed by the White House in recent months.

In short, tariffs of over 100% were tantamount to a total embargo on goods coming from the United States’ main trading partner.

That would have had enormous economic implications, not just for the US but every other country around the world (these are the world’s biggest and second-biggest economies, after all).

So the truce announced on Monday by treasury secretary Scott Bessent is undoubtedly a very big deal indeed.

Read more from Ed Conway here

Welcomed news

The news was received positively by Asian stock markets on Monday as major indexes were up.

In China, the Shanghai Composite stock index rose 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component gained 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up nearly 3%.

In countries across Asia, benchmark stock indexes also rose. Korea’s Kospi grew 1.1%, Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.8%, while India’s Nifty 50 index of most valuable companies gained more than 3%.

US stocks rose sharply at the open.

The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq saw their biggest leaps in more than a month, rising almost 3% and 4% respectively.

The market rally was visible in Europe too.

The dollar – hit in recent weeks by US recession speculation – was up more than a cent versus the pound while oil prices also rallied. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was 3.5% higher at $66 a barrel.

What next?

When asked by journalists about what the US wanted to see from China in the 90s, Mr Bessent said, “As long as there is good faith effort, engagement and constructive dialogue, then we will keep moving forward.”

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Explained: The US-UK trade deal

The UK came to the front of the line for deals, Mr Bessent added, “as our oldest ally”.

Switzerland had also moved to the “front of the queue”, he said, while the EU has been slower.

As with the other counties subject to 90-day pauses, a permanent deal will need to be reached, but confidence across the world is likely to have been boosted.

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Businesses now need a clear timetable and roadmap for future negotiations under the newly announced economic and trade consultation mechanism, said Andrew Wilson, the deputy secretary general of the International Chamber of Commerce.

“The credibility of that process for resolving underlying frictions in the Sino-US economic relationship will be mission-critical in terms of restoring business confidence.”

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Monzo lines up bankers to spearhead blockbuster £6bn float

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Monzo lines up bankers to spearhead blockbuster £6bn float

Monzo, the digital bank which counts one in five British adults among its customers, is closing in on the appointment of investment bankers to spearhead a stock market listing valuing it at more than £6bn.

Sky News has learnt that Monzo is working with Morgan Stanley, the Wall Street giant, on a series of meetings with potential investors ahead of an initial public offering which could take place as early as the first half next year.

People close to the company said this weekend that bankers would be formally hired to work on the listing within months, with Morgan Stanley now expected to be handed a key role on the deal.

The timing, size and location of an IPO are still to be determined and will depend on market conditions in London and New York, both of which have been buffeted by Donald Trump’s introduction of swingeing trade tariffs.

However, London is currently seen as the most likely listing venue for Monzo by board members and investors, according to people close to the situation.

The company, which saw its valuation soar to £4.5bn last year after primary and secondary share sales, is considering a further sale of existing shares to allow early investors and employees to cash in, although a decision to proceed has not yet been taken.

Monzo has more than 11m UK retail customers, making it the seventh-largest British bank by customer numbers, and 600,000 business customers.

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Founded a decade ago, it has become one of Britain’s most successful, and valuable, fintech companies.

It employs close to 4,000 people.

Last year, it raised more than £500m by selling newly issued shares to a group of investors led by Capital G, a division of Alphabet-owned Google.

That primary share sale valued the business at £4.1bn.

An IPO, including any new capital raised, would be likely to value Monzo at more than £6bn, and potentially in the region of £7bn, according to banking sources.

Last year’s secondary share sale saw existing Monzo investors StepStone Group and GIC, the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund, buying stock from employees.

The company is now profitable and has diversified into investments and instant access savings accounts.

It has also launched pensions products and accounts aimed at under-16s.

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Monzo is among a new generation of banks which have emerged since the last financial crisis and begun to accumulate a significant share of the UK retail banking market.

Rivals include Starling Bank and Revolut, which was valued at $45bn in its last fundraising and was awarded a banking licence by British regulators last year after a protracted process.

Monzo has recovered spectacularly from a difficult period in 2020 when it emerged that the City watchdog was investigating it for potential breaches of anti-money laundering and financial crime rules.

It has revamped its corporate structure as it pursues an international expansion aimed at enticing new investors to its strategy for long-term growth.

The company has been exploring acquisition opportunities in the US and Europe, although a major deal is not thought to be imminent.

Monzo Bank Holding Group was established to avoid the company facing punitive capital treatment by British regulators as it launches in new overseas markets.

Other Monzo investors include the Chinese group Tencent, Passion Capital, Accel, General Catalyst and Hedosophia.

Monzo is run by TS Anil, its chief executive, and chaired by Gary Hoffman, the banker who salvaged Northern Rock after its nationalisation in 2008.

This weekend, a Monzo spokesperson declined to comment.

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Trade war: Trump floats China tariff cut to 80% ahead of talks

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Trade war: Trump floats China tariff cut to 80% ahead of talks

Donald Trump has floated the idea of cutting US trade tariffs against China to 80% – as key peace talks between the sides prepare to get under way.

The weekend meeting, involving top officials from both nations in Switzerland, is seen as an opportunity to ease the most damaging and punitive element of the trade war.

At stake for both sides is not only a deteriorating domestic outlook but a weakening global economy.

Writing on his Truth Social platform, hours after agreeing an interim deal with the UK, the president said: “80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B [Bessent].”

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It means the decision will lie with Scott Bessent – the US treasury secretary who will lead the US delegation at the talks in Geneva.

The outcome is eagerly awaited after several rounds of tariff hikes that currently total duties of 125% on US imports to China and 145% on Chinese goods arriving in America.

Both levels amount to an effective trade embargo, given the severity of the numbers. A 80% figure against China would remain hugely restrictive.

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Trump: Tariffs are making US ‘rich’

But the announcement of talks in Switzerland this week has been welcomed broadly – across financial markets too, with the dollar and global stocks rising on Friday in hopeful anticipation of a cooling in the trade hostilities between the world’s two largest economies.

Investors are not only concerned by higher, if not extortionate, prices but also the impact on supply.

The effects are being felt in both economies already.

Fears of a trade war effectively meant that the US economy contracted during the first three months of the year, while the US central bank has held off on interest rate cuts on the grounds that tariffs applied to imports by the Trump administration globally will lift inflation markedly.

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China’s Silicon Valley: ‘It’s our time to battle’

Official data out of China is yet to show any obvious pain, but surveys suggest factory orders are tumbling.

The fact that China is suffering was borne out on Wednesday when the country’s central bank cut interest rates and reduced bank reserve requirements to help free up more funding for lending.

The authorities also agreed wider borrowing facilities to help manufacturers.

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It will be hoped that bolstering activity in the economy will help lift prices generally, as China continues to battle deflation.

Officially, China has signalled that it wants the US to make the first concession.

Its delegation in Geneva is led by vice premier He Lifeng – a figure within China who has gained an international reputation as an effective negotiator.

A commerce ministry spokesperson said of the prospects for a breakthrough when confirming the talks: “The Chinese side carefully evaluated the information from the US side and decided to agree to have contact with the US side after fully considering global expectations, Chinese interests and calls from US businesses and consumers.”

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told Sky’s US partner CNBC on Friday: “Everything that’s been going on with the meeting in Switzerland is very promising to us.

“We’re seeing extreme respect, treating both sides with respect. We’re seeing collegiality and also sketches of positive developments.”

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