Reduced chance of winter power blackouts despite loss of coal back-up – grid operator
The risk of the lights going out is down this winter, with power margins almost back to levels seen before the energy crisis, according to an eagerly awaited report.
National Grid ESO’s annual winter outlook, which assesses its own readiness for the coldest months of November to March, said it only saw a matter of minutes when the balance between supply and demand would not be met.
It forecast a margin of 7.4% capacity.
That means it expects to have 4.4 gigawatts (GW) of power in hand to meet its reliability standard.
The figure represents an improvement on the 6.3% (3.7 GW) that was expected this time last year when Russia’s war with Ukraine – and sanctions to punish Russia for its invasion – squeezed gas supplies across Europe, forcing energy prices up to unprecedented levels.
Struggles for nuclear output in France last year also placed a greater strain on UK resources.
The latest report concluded, however, that the Grid was still likely to have to issue so-called “margin notices” over winter for periods when the supply-demand balance is especially tight.
These are calls for power generators to provide as much as they can to the network.
That was despite more domestic generation being available, the Grid said, along with increased levels of battery storage and the ability to share power with other nations including France and Belgium.
The operator will also have the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), introduced last year, to fall back on again as an additional tool.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
June: Blackout prevention scheme to stay
The scheme will see signatory households and businesses paid for turning off power-intensive appliances at times when power availability is stretched.
The DFS was utilised during a cold snap at the end of last winter following numerous test events that the Grid said had, when combined, saved enough electricity to power nearly 10 million homes.
Craig Dyke, the ESO’s head of national control, said of the blackout risk: “Compared to last year it is almost going back to around where it was before last winter.
“So the risks that we talked about last year, the probability of them occurring, are much, much lower.”
The main challenge facing the Grid this autumn is the loss of five coal-fired power plants that were held in reserve last winter.
They were able to be fired up in readiness to produce electricity when, for example, the wind did not blow but talks with EDF and Drax during the spring failed to produce a deal on new standby contracts.
Because there is no coal back-up to call on if margins become tight, gas and nuclear capacity becomes more essential.
A separate report by National Gas, which operates Britain’s gas grid, said it did not foresee higher exports to Europe this year due to improved storage levels on the continent.
As such, it believed there would be less pressure on domestic supplies and that less gas would be needed to produce electricity due to improved output from other sources, especially wind.
Read more:
Energy price cap falls below £2,000 from October
Support households ahead of ‘inevitable’ winter bills crisis, MPs warn
UK’s largest untapped oil field given go-ahead
Any unexpected loss of wind, gas or nuclear generation means the country would be at the mercy of available power in neighbouring countries through the so-called interconnector network.
There are five in operation, connecting the UK with France, The Netherlands, Belgium and Norway.
A sixth interconnector, Viking Link, is still under construction but is expected to join the UK with Denmark late this year.
Once operational, the two countries will be able to share enough electricity to power up to 1.4 million homes.
Over the course of a year, the UK tends to import more power than it exports through these arrangements.
This can add to bills depending on the power sources utilised, though the UK’s leading position in wind power can also work in its favour.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Energy price cap falls
The fact remains, however, that energy bills remain around £1,000 per year higher than typical pre-pandemic levels.
A household paying by direct debit for gas and electricity will face an average annual charge of £1,923 from October to December, a fall of about £150 on the previous three months.
Experts warn that the loss of universal government support for bills will mean many households will be worse off this winter than last, particularly when industry forecasts suggest the average bill will be back above £2,000 when the next price cap adjustment is made for January-March.
Business
US trade war: The state of play as Trump signs order imposing new tariffs – but there are more delays
Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.
For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.
Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.
Money latest: Why your internet feels slower
While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.
Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.
Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
What does the UK-US trade deal involve?
Why was 1 August such an important date?
To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.
Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.
The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.
Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.
The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.
Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.
Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?
The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.
China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.
Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.
There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Millions of EU jobs were in firing line
Where does the UK stand?
We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.
While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.
Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.
UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.
Who has not done a deal?
Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.
America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.
Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.
Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.
What are the consequences?
This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.
The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.
It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.
Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.
Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.
Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.
Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.
US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs.
Read more:
Trump signs executive order for reciprocal tariffs
Aston Martin outlines plan to ease US tariff hit
The big risk ahead?
It’s a self-inflicted wound.
The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?
The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.
It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.
A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.
The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.
It is “Liberation Day” III – the third tariff deadline set by Donald Trump.
Countries without bilateral trade agreements will soon face reciprocal tariffs – ranging from 25% to 50% – with a baseline of 15% to 20% for any not making a deal.
He has delayed twice, from April to July and from July to August, but hammered this date home in his trademark caps-on style: “THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE STANDS STRONG, AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED. A BIG DAY FOR AMERICA!!!”
“Will not be extended” for anyone but Mexico, it seems. The country secured a 90-day extension at the last minute, with Mr Trump citing the “complexities” of the border.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Explained: The US-UK trade deal
By close of business on the eve of deadline, he had a handful of framework deals – some significant – including the UK (10%), the EU, Japan and South Korea (15%), Indonesia and the Philippines (19%), Vietnam (20%).
On the EU agreement, which he struck in Scotland, the president said: “It’s a very powerful deal, it’s a big deal, it’s the biggest of all the deals.”
But what happened to the “90 deals in 90 days” touted by the White House earlier this year?
The short answer is they were replaced by letters of instruction to pay a tariff set by the US.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
How Trump 2.0 changed the world
Amid of flurry of late activity, the US played hardball with major trading partners like Canada.
“For the rest of the world, we’re going to have things done by Friday,” said US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick – the “rest of the world” meaning everyone but China.
There is, apparently, the “framework of a deal” between the world’s two largest economies, but talks between Washington and Beijing are continuing.
Read more US news:
Top Trump officials to visit Gaza
Heavy rain and flash floods batter east coast
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Worker begs America for help
In terms of wins, he can claim some significant deals and point to his tariffs having generated an impressive $27bn (£20.4bn) in June, not bad for a single month.
But the legality of the approach is under siege – with the US Court of International Trade ruling that the “Liberation Day” tariffs exceeded the president’s authority, with enforcement paused pending appeal.
The deadline has stirred the pot, forcing a handful of deals onto the table. Whether they stick or survive legal scrutiny is far from settled.
But the playbook remains the same – threaten the world with trade chaos, whittle it down, celebrate the wins, and pray no one checks what’s legal.
Microsoft has become only the second publicly traded company after Nvidia to surpass $4 trn (£3.03trn) in market valuation, after registering huge earnings.
On Thursday, shares rose on Wall Street with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbing to new record highs.
Stocks in Microsoft jumped after posting better-than-expected results, helped by its Azure cloud computing platform, which is a centrepiece of the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) efforts.
Shares in Facebook and Instagram’s parent company, Meta, also surged after beating sales and profit targets.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Is Trump’s AI plan a ‘tech bro’ manifesto?
Technology giants Apple and Amazon will report their results after Wall Street’s close.
Microsoft first cracked the $1trn (£760bn) mark in April 2019, but its move to $3trn (£2.27trn) took longer than technology giants Nvidia and Apple.
Nvidia tripled its value in just about a year and clinched the $4trn milestone before any other company on 9 July. Apple was last valued at $3.12trn.
In comparison, the biggest UK company by market value is drug manufacturer AstraZeneca, worth $235.97bn (£178.55bn).
Companies ranked by market value (USD), according to tradingview.com
1. Nvidia (US) $4.43trn
2. Microsoft (US) $4trn
3. Apple (US) $3.12trn
4. Amazon (US) $2.47trn
5. Alphabet (US) $2.35trn
6. Meta (US) $1.95trn
7. Saudi Arabian Oil (Saudi Arabia) $1.56trn
8. Broadcom (US) $1.42trn
9. Berkshire Hathaway (US) $1.03trn
10. Tesla (US) $1.02trn
11. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (Taiwan) $1trn
29. Samsung Electronics (South Korea) $338.06bn
36. Alibaba (China) $284.62bn
52. AstraZeneca (UK) $235.97bn
While sweeping US tariffs had investors worried about tighter business spending, Microsoft’s strong earnings have shown that the company’s books are yet to take a hit.
Microsoft’s multibillion-dollar bet on OpenAI is proving to be a game changer, powering its Office Suite and Azure offerings with cutting-edge AI and fueling the stock to more than double its value since ChatGPT’s late-2022 debut.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Read more from Sky News:
Microsoft beats Nvidia by market value
Trump unveils AI action plan
UK ramps up AI adoption with Meta
On Wednesday, the firm announced Azure sales surpassed $75bn (£56bn) on an annual basis, while Azure revenue jumped 39% in the April-June quarter.
Overall revenue rose 18% to $76.4bn (£57.81bn) over the same period.
It is also forecasting a record $30bn (£22.7bn) in capital spending over the first quarter to meet soaring AI demand..
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike