The untold story of CFB’s ultimate party crasher: Meet the fan who led the Vols onto the field for the 1998 title game
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — It has been nearly 25 years, but J.R. Greene still has the faded orange top hat sitting in his office, the same one he frantically clutched on his head as he led Tennessee’s football team onto the field for the national championship Fiesta Bowl game against Florida State, a magical night for the Volunteers and their fans.
The top hat was just part of his attire. A 24-year-old student working on his MBA at the time, Greene was also sporting an orange-and-white tuxedo with matching orange gloves and a Power T cummerbund.
The ultimate party crasher in the ultimate moment for his beloved Vols, Greene was the “Big Orange Tux Guy,” a phrase he repeated over and over to finagle his way onto the stage to sing “Rocky Top” with a band playing before the game, onto the ESPN “College GameDay” set — and most improbably — onto the field in one of those Ferris Bueller-like odysseys that almost sounds like a fairy tale.
Yet there he was, praying every few minutes that he “wasn’t going to end up in jail and miss the biggest game of my life,” as he raced from the Sun Devil Stadium tunnel with coach Phillip Fulmer, Tee Martin, Al Wilson, Peerless Price and the entire Tennessee contingent in tow.
“It’s no fairy tale. He was there. Wasn’t supposed to be, but he was there,” Fulmer joked. “I’m still not sure how he pulled it off.”
Nobody is — not even Greene, who figured the timing was right to tell his mind-boggling story publicly for the first time. This is the 25th anniversary of Tennessee’s 1998 national championship season, and the team will be honored Saturday at Neyland Stadium during the game against South Carolina.
And, yes, Greene — a donor and lifelong fan — plans to be in attendance. He has had season tickets in his family going back to his great-grandfather, John T. O’Connor, who was the mayor of Knoxville in the 1930s. Greene sold programs at Tennessee sporting events as a middle school student in the 1980s.
Recently, Greene dug out his old tux from the closet, but he wouldn’t dare break it back out to wear this weekend.
“Oh no, I’m 1-0, unbeaten,” Greene said. “I only wear the tux for championship games.”
GREENE HAD HIS tux on bright and early 25 years ago, starting that Jan. 4, 1999, morning in the lobby of his hotel. He was ready to show it off, have some fun and send a message. But never in his wildest dreams did Greene envision that several hours later, he would be leading the Tennessee team out onto the field.
“Everything sort of perfectly fell into place, and every time somebody asked me who I was or what I was doing, I would just say, ‘I’m J.R. Greene, the Big Orange Tux Guy. I’m here to show Tennessee has class,'” Greene recounted. “That’s all it was about.”
At least, that’s the way it started.
Like many Tennessee fans, Greene was ruffled over comments made by ESPN’s Chris Fowler a year earlier. In referencing the nasty backlash and threats directed at him by some Tennessee fans over Peyton Manning not winning the Heisman Trophy, Fowler used the term “trailer park frenzy,” something he has apologized for several times. Fowler actually voted for Manning in the Heisman balloting that year.
Ironically, Greene said, Fowler played a crucial role in his getting onto the field that evening in Tempe, Arizona. Greene managed to maneuver his way onto the “GameDay” set by climbing up the back stairs from the field. He had bumped into ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit the night before in Scottsdale and told Herbstreit he was going to wear an orange-and-white tux to the game.
“He told me if I showed up in an orange-and-white tux that he’d get me on ‘GameDay,'” Greene recalled.
Crawford Wagner, one of Greene’s friends who made the trip to the Fiesta Bowl, remembers that conversation. Now, Wagner had no idea Greene would be successful in making his way to the ESPN set, but looking back, he’s not surprised.
“J.R. has always been a guy that could sell things and would usually end up in places you didn’t necessarily expect to see him,” Wagner said.
Greene’s penchant for showing up in such places went to another level after his Fiesta Bowl escapades. Later in 1999, he told his story to screeners for “The Price is Right” and made it on stage as a contestant on the Bob Barker-hosted game show. In 2001, after taking a job in Los Angeles, he introduced himself to actor Hugh Grant while at the Beverly Hilton and followed him into the green room at the Golden Globe Awards, where he rubbed elbows with Dick Clark, Reese Witherspoon, Nicole Kidman and Tom Cruise.
“Let’s just say the confidence I gained from being the Big Orange Tux Guy that night changed my future,” Greene said.
Herbstreit was in only his third year of doing “GameDay” during the 1998 season, and now, after visiting so many venues and encountering so many exuberant fans over the years, he doesn’t specifically remember the “Big Orange Tux Guy.” Nonetheless, he thinks Greene’s zeal is the kind of thing that makes college football unique.
“His story adds up because there were back steps to the field, and our set was right in the middle of the Tennessee section,” Herbstreit said. “The thing I remember most is that I picked Tennessee, and when Peerless caught that first deep pass, I almost came out of my seat because, especially back in those days, you were married to your picks.”
Fowler has what he called a vague recollection of Greene and the oddity of his showing up on the set with an orange-and-white tux, which had some custom “tailoring,” thanks to Greene’s creativity.
Greene’s first attempt to dye a tux orange ended up as more of a peach color. So he bought another tux and colored in the lapels and other areas with an orange magic marker.
“That’s not real. You’re not a real mascot,” Greene remembers Fowler telling him as the “GameDay” host moved in closer and realized the orange was colored in with a marker. “But if you’ve got the guts to do that and come up here, why don’t you walk down to the field with us?”
Greene, nervously looking around to see whether any security guards might be zeroing in on him, went bopping along behind the ESPN duo down the steps.
“I remember we had a big net around us, and there were thousands of whiskey bottles on top when we were done with the show,” Fowler said. “The Tennessee fans were so hyped to be in that game. But [Greene] looked the part, so I can see why nobody would stop him.
“Hey, if I helped him get down on the field in some way, I’m pleased, especially if he was going to make that kind of commitment. Somewhere, that fits into a chaotic cap to what was a chaotic season.
“Why not have a guy who’s not supposed to be there running around on the field?”
GREENE HAD ALREADY morphed into a celebrity of sorts earlier in the day as a sea of charged-up Tennessee fans tailgated outside the stadium. It had been nearly 50 years since the Vols had last won a national championship, going all the way back to the days of legendary coach Gen. Robert Neyland.
“You could feel the energy and the anticipation. It was like the whole state of Tennessee was there,” Greene said.
Greene flew to the game with buddies Robbie Pope and Mark Sykes. He was initially going to wear the tux on the plane, but Pope convinced him that would be bad luck. Instead, Pope talked Greene into getting up onto a stage during pregame festivities and singing with the band.
“J.R. said something about getting up there and singing ‘Rocky Top’ and was going to chicken out,” Pope said.
The next thing Pope knew, ever-persistent Greene was at the corner of the stage trying to get the drummer’s attention. A hulking security guard wearing all black asked Greene who he was, and Greene told him he was there to sing “Rocky Top.” The guard told Greene he needed to talk to the drummer, who was right in the middle of a song. Finally, the drummer angrily motioned for Greene to wait, and after the song, the drummer gathered the band together and put a headset on Greene.
Looking out into the crowd and seeing all the orange, Greene bellowed, “Who’s going to win the national championship?”
And right on cue, the band broke into a rendition of “Rocky Top.” The only problem was Greene froze and forgot the words.
“All I knew was the chorus,” he said bashfully. “Thankfully, the band bailed me out and started singing. One of the guys started playing the fiddle.”
Just as Greene started to belt out “Rocky Top, you’ll always be home sweet home to me,” he pointed to two girls from the audience to join him on stage, and they linked arms for a little country dancing twirl.
Out in the crowd, his friends could only wonder what might happen next.
“We were probably 100 feet away from the stage, and vintage J.R., when he forgot the words, he ad-libbed and ran with it, which he’s good at,” Wagner said.
Pope said when Greene hopped off the stage, everybody thought he was a celebrity and swarmed him for pictures, and that’s when the legend of the “Big Orange Tux Guy” really ignited.
“I didn’t want it to end. The rush was incredible,” Greene said.
IN THOSE DAYS, there were no digital tickets, just paper tickets that were torn at the gate as you entered the stadium. Greene, who by now was separated from his friends, didn’t want his ticket to be torn and started looking around for another way to get into the game. (Greene still has the ticket intact and was able to get the Voice of the Vols, radio broadcaster John Ward, to sign it.)
Greene walked around the outside of the stadium, scouting out different entrances. He noticed bowl officials, media and other team personnel going through a special entrance lined with velvet ropes.
Surely, he thought to himself as his confidence was bubbling, somebody wearing an orange-and-white tuxedo and top hat would look official enough to enter there.
“I thought, ‘Why not?'” he said. “Even then, I wasn’t thinking about getting onto the field. I just wanted to get into the game without my ticket being torn.
“I had no pass, no credentials, no nothing.”
Keep in mind this was pre-9/11, and security measures weren’t nearly as stringent as they are today. Greene strolled right through the participants entrance smiling and nodding at the security personnel the whole way. Within minutes, he found himself in the bowels of Sun Devil Stadium, just off the field. One of the first people he saw was Florida State coach Bobby Bowden, who took a cursory glance at him and kept walking.
“I’m sort of shaking at this point, pinching myself. I mean, I’m walking out onto the field where Tennessee’s getting ready to play for the national championship,” Greene said.
Then he noticed the back stairway to the “GameDay” location. He thought about it (for about two seconds), then climbed up awkwardly and pushed open a little wooden door to the back of the set.
“Herbstreit sees me and buries his brow into his arm as if to say, ‘He really wore an orange-and-white tux,'” Greene said. “I kept waiting for somebody to come kick me out and they never did.”
Anything but bashful, Greene approached Herbstreit and Fowler. To this day, he is grateful they were his escorts back onto the field and eventually to the most exhilarating run of his life.
“I know Chris Fowler had become the enemy of Tennessee fans, but had he not invited me to go back down to the field with them, there wouldn’t be any ‘Big Orange Tux Guy’ story,” Greene said. “I’ve got nothing bad to say about him.”
Once they all got down to the field, kickoff was fast approaching, and Fowler and Herbstreit went about their business. Greene, his heart pounding, saw a member of the Tennessee dance team he knew and hugged her. By then, he was near the front of the Tennessee tunnel to the locker room, where the cheerleaders, mascots and other members of the Vols’ spirit squad were gathering.
Nobody knew who he was or what he was doing there.
Adam DeVault, who wore the Davy Crockett outfit and carried the giant orange “T” flag onto the field, remembers seeing Greene out of the corner of his eye.
“That’s the only reason I remember,” DeVault said. “It was such a big game with so much going on. Nothing is normal about a game like that, really. I guess I assumed he was a donor that had paid a lot of money to run out with the team. I do know I would have been mad had he run out in front of me.”
As the minutes counted down to the Tennessee players filling the tunnel, Greene felt a tap on his shoulder.
“Hey, we’re already at the NCAA limit for mascots,” Greene remembers someone from Tennessee telling him.
To this day, Greene doesn’t know who it was.
“I just know that I was sure then that it was over, that I was going to jail,” he said.
Barry Garner was in charge of the Tennessee spirit squad that day, filling in for regular coordinator Joy Postell-Gee, who missed the trip at the last minute because she was close to giving birth. (“I hate to say it, but it would have been a different outcome for [Greene] if I had been there,” Postell-Gee said. “He would have never made it onto the field.”)
The scene was chaotic, including the opposing players jawing at each other in the locker room area as they neared the tunnel. Garner said he might have alerted authorities if Greene had appeared any earlier.
“This is literally minutes before we ran out. We’re waiting on Coach Fulmer and watching for him, and then you look to your side and this guy with an orange tuxedo is just standing there,” Garner recalled.
“I said something like, “Who are you? What are you here for?”
Greene’s response was a familiar one: “I’m the Big Orange Tux Guy.”
Garner looked at him quizzically and asked, “Wait, are you supposed to lead us onto the field or something?”
Forgetting for a few seconds his Eagle Scout vow to always tell the truth, Greene nervously nodded his head yes, to which Garner responded, “Well, let’s go, lead us to a national championship.”
Greene, of course, was oblivious to the team’s routine for running onto the field, which included Fulmer pointing and saying “Go,” and then Smokey, the Vols’ bluetick coonhound mascot, being led out first, followed by Davy Crockett (DeVault) carrying the team flag, the costumed version of Smokey, the cheerleaders and then the team. But at least Greene knew to stay to the right.
One of Smokey’s handlers warned Greene right before they ran out that Smokey liked to zigzag and that if Greene got tripped up and fell, he would be trampled by the players because they wouldn’t stop.
Willis Jepson, who was the lead handler for Smokey that season, laughed when asked about the wild scene.
“I was so busy trying to keep Smokey calm because so much was going on that I can’t say I remember any of that, but it sure sounds like something we would say,” Jepson said. “That’s funny, though. We’re getting ready to play for a national championship, and we’ve got some guy running out there with us that nobody knows who he is.”
Greene didn’t just run. He kept running. As the team turned left toward the sideline, he sprinted out toward midfield by himself before realizing that he needed to make a left turn.
Meanwhile, nearly an hour had passed since Greene’s friends had last seen him. They were already in the stadium. Watching from his seat in the opposite end zone, Blaine Cloud’s eyes opened wide as he saw the Tennessee team come racing onto the field.
“Coming right toward us was J.R.,” said Cloud, who was in business school with Greene and whose seats for the game were near Greene’s. “I’d seen him in the tux earlier in the day, but he was moving around all over the place. I didn’t know where he was. Knowing J.R., he could have been anywhere, including jail.”
But running out with the team?
“We’re yelling and screaming. There he was, right next to Smokey,” Cloud said. “It’s still hard to believe how everything had to align just right for him to be out there.”
Pope never saw Greene on the field. And when Greene finally got to his seats sometime in the first quarter, Pope didn’t believe his buddy’s story.
“I just told him he was full of s—, but that’s what I usually told him about those things,” Pope said. “I wasn’t inclined to believe him at first blush because I wasn’t looking for him on the field. Nobody was. I needed some corroboration, and I guess I didn’t really believe it until I saw the video when we got back home.”
One of Greene’s friends, Meredith Christenberry, had a camcorder at the game and recorded the Vols’ entrance. The video clearly shows Greene making his run for the ages.
Greene remained on the sideline behind the players and cheerleaders for part of the first quarter. He figured he was living on borrowed time by then. Plus, he said, he couldn’t see the game, so he found his way to his seats.
Christi Meadows Dorsey was a Tennessee cheerleader that season. By the time the game started, word apparently started to spread among bowl officials that there was an unauthorized person on the Vols’ sideline.
“Somebody came over there, and we all got a little scolding that everybody had to have the right credentials to be on the field,” she said. “I didn’t notice [Greene] at the time, but it started getting around. It was bizarre. Even all these years later, it’s bizarre.”
After the game, the cheerleaders and spirit squad members were on a bus celebrating Tennessee’s 23-16 victory over Florida State when the Big Orange Tux Guy came up in conversation.
“We’d just won a national championship, and that’s what we were talking about,” Meadows Dorsey recalled. “At the same time, we were all trying to figure out who this guy was and where he came from.”
That guy was the Big Orange Tux Guy, the guy with “class” and the guy who dared to live on the wild side that historic night for Tennessee football a quarter century ago.
Some stories grow to the point of becoming myths over time. But not this one.
“This isn’t a Bigfoot or Sasquatch thing or just a wild rumor,” DeVault said. “He was there. I saw him, and there are pictures to prove it.”
The only thing missing is a Big Orange Footprint.
Miami is inching closer but still needs some help.
With the Hurricanes creeping up to No. 12 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hope of having two teams qualify for the 12-team field is still alive. Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they’re better than Notre Dame — and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion — even if it’s No. 18 Virginia — is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. That’s evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.
Though the Canes have no margin for error and could still use some help above them, they might get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped one spot above No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating that the Rebels might not recover from a second stumble.
With Rivalry Week on the horizon, there are still plenty of scenarios that can unfold — and hope is still oozing from the bubble.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it might face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee would be the first step, but they’d also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s conceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, and Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of that would matter, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its place in the top 10. The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ résumé enough to jump Ole Miss, and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room. Oregon now has a 16.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it must beat Washington and it needs Michigan to defeat Ohio State.
First team out: Michigan. The No. 15 Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State and a loss by Indiana or Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head defeat to USC because the Trojans have three losses and dropped behind the Wolverines to No. 17 in the latest ranking. The loss to No. 8 Oklahoma, though, will probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, will have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech does that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a BYU loss or a win and losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas and both BYU and Arizona State win and Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 14.2% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. They must win at Pitt on Saturday, and it helped that the committee ranked the Panthers No. 22 on Tuesday night. Miami’s loss to SMU no longer looks as bad as it initially did after the Mustangs cracked the CFP top 25 at No. 21. Miami is getting some help, but it has also helped itself by winning three straight games by at least 17 points. Saturday at Virginia Tech brought Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been awaiting. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, and the Canes are within range of the committee revisiting the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re both in the same conversation as Alabama and BYU. If Miami can win at Pitt, the committee will certainly factor that into its discussion during the fifth ranking. It’s important to remember, though, that head-to-head isn’t the only factor in the room. The entire body of work is considered, and right now, the committee is more impressed by the Irish.
First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. And with No. 21 SMU now one of five ranked teams from the conference, the ACC title game is likely to feature two ranked opponents. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter two of which are above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get into the ACC championship game with a win and a loss by SMU or UVA. Duke can get in with a win plus losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of playing Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games. If Miami beats Pitt, the committee will compare that common opponent with Notre Dame, which also beat Pitt. They would continue to talk about the head-to-head tiebreaker, but that’s not the final determinant. Both Miami and Notre Dame can earn at-large bids, but if there are two Big 12 teams in, someone currently in the top 10 will have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chances to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave maintained their spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following the 37-13 win at Temple, their largest margin of victory this season.
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference title game, and multiple tiebreaker scenarios are still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — because Navy was not ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win and a loss by Tulane or North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fourth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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David Hale
We don’t talk nearly enough about luck in sports.
It’s only reasonable to want to believe the best team always wins, that the outcome of a game is the reward for a better process, that, in the end, we all get what we deserve.
But then you watch 10 minutes of Florida State football and it’s impossible to deny that there are football gods at work and they can be awfully vengeful.
And so it is that, at this late point in the season, the College Football Playoff rankings still hinge, in no small part, on a botched extra point at the end of Notre Dame-Texas A&M.
We can look back at Miami‘s game against SMU on Nov. 1 — a game that, with 2 minutes to go the Canes had a 90% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s metrics — and consider it a bad loss, then a week later, see Oregon — with less than a 40% chance of beating Iowa with 2 minutes remaining — pull off a comeback and have it constitute a critical point on the Ducks’ résumé.
Alabama nearly doubled Oklahoma‘s yardage but lost, Ole Miss gave up 526 yards to Arkansas and won, Georgia has trailed in the second half five times this year but has just one loss to show for it.
These things happen, and while there’s clearly valuable data involved — Georgia wins those games, because the Dawgs are really good — any time we’re discussing a one-game sample size, there’s room for ample debate over what matters and what doesn’t.
The committee’s job is to counterbalance the fickleness of luck with a calculated, rational, repeatable process of evaluation that, if applied again and again by dozens of different people, would largely yield the same results; something akin to scientific testing, a way to filter out the noise and get to what matters most. “The process,” as everyone from Nick Saban to Michael Lombardi have called it.
And yet, it’s hard to say exactly what the committee’s process really is. Even when it’s explained — Miami isn’t in the same bucket as Notre Dame, so they can’t be compared directly, for example — the logic often crumbles under the slightest bit of scrutiny.
Instead, the committee has mostly relied on its own luck, and each year, by the time the final rankings are revealed, the 13 games played on the field provide enough clarity that most reasonable people will proclaim the committee got things right, save for the occasional reminder to Florida State that, yes, the football gods are not Seminoles fans.
This year though, it’s increasingly likely the committee’s luck could run out.
We have one full weekend of games left. There are reasonably 16 teams who’ll make a case as to why they should earn one of the seven coveted at-large spots. Without a little luck in Week 14, the committee’s going to have some incredibly hard choices to make.
And that means we’ve got plenty of outrage left to send the committee’s way.
This past week seemed to be the apex of the biggest rankings debate: Notre Dame or Miami?
The argument here is easy to understand. The committee has consistently had the Irish well ahead of the Hurricanes, despite both teams having the same record and Miami holding a head-to-head win.
But you know what’s even easier to understand? BYU has a better record than both.
In fact, let’s look at some résumés.
Team A: Best win vs. SP+ No. 19, next best vs. No. 21. Loss to SP+ No. 2. Two wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 5 strength of record.
Team B: Best win vs. SP+ No. 9, next best vs. No. 25. Loss to SP+ No. 3. Six wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 6 strength of record.
Both look like pretty obvious playoff teams, right?
Well Team A just moved up a spot in the rankings, seems assured not just of making the playoff, but of hosting a home game, and no one seems to be arguing about its spot in the rankings. That’s Oregon at No. 6.
Team B would currently be our first team out, a team with a résumé that shows equally impressive wins, an equally understandable loss and a far more impressive breadth of quality opponents. And yet, no one seems to be arguing much about BYU’s spot in the rankings either.
Why is it that the Cougars — the forgotten one-loss team with a higher ranked win than Oregon or Notre Dame and a better loss than Alabama or Oklahoma — sit at No. 11 and no one seems to care?
We get the frustration over Miami’s placement. There’s plenty of anger to go around. But don’t let BYU get lost in the shuffle. The Cougars’ résumé holds up against all the two-loss teams and is on par with Oregon and Ole Miss. Somehow, the committee — and nearly everyone else outside of Provo — seems to be ignoring it.
Wait, are we really defending Notre Dame here? Hey, somebody’s got to do it.
Let’s take a closer look at the Irish, who’ve become the punching bag for every fan frustrated with the committee’s rankings.
Right now, Notre Dame is effectively the golfer who wrapped up his round early and is waiting in the clubhouse, hoping no one else makes too many birdies. The Irish are safely in the field, and only a road trip to lowly Stanford is left on the docket.
But as the committee’s rankings hold steady week after week, there has been more and more time to debate the merits of Notre Dame’s résumé, and when we reach the end of championship week, it’s hard to ignore that one team aiming for a playoff bid doesn’t actually play in a conference.
So, does Notre Dame really deserve the benefit of the doubt?
In short: Heck yeah.
The Irish have five wins against bowl-eligible opponents — more than Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt or Texas Tech.
Both of Notre Dame’s losses were one-possession affairs against top-12 opponents. The loss to Texas A&M came down to a fluke occurrence, as the Irish flubbed a point after try.
Notre Dame’s game control — about as good an estimation as we have for the eye test — puts the Irish ahead of everyone but Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech and Oregon.
In four games since Nov. 1, Notre Dame has beaten its opposition by a combined score of 181-42, lambasting Syracuse so badly in Week 13 that Fran Brown might not shower for a month.
Look at any of the underlying metrics — explosive play rates, defensive stop rates, Jeremiyah Love being awesome rates — and Notre Dame is as good as anyone in the country.
So yes, we get the more logical debates about Miami’s Week 1 win or Alabama’s superior schedule, but the bottom line is, outside of Ohio State, there’s probably no team in the country playing better, more balanced football than the Irish. That probably shouldn’t be the only consideration, but as we debate which teams ought to be docked a few points in the rankings, Notre Dame probably shouldn’t be at the front of the line either.
Yes, Miami has a good argument against the committee’s treatment of the Hurricanes. The committee, too, seems to acknowledge under-appreciating Miami early on, and is adjusting by slowly moving the Canes up one spot each week, hoping that’ll be enough to appease the masses.
But here’s a question: What if Miami’s real beef should be with the ACC, not with the committee?
For each of the past two years, there has been widespread consensus that the ACC’s best team is Miami. But, barring some truly high-level chaos in Week 14 — something the ACC is apt to provide — the Canes won’t be playing for a conference championship again.
When leagues were smaller and had two divisions, the idea of pitting one division champ against the other made intuitive sense. But with expansion and the end of division play, what we’ve gotten is wildly diverse scheduling and the potential for confounding tiebreakers to ultimately decide which two teams get to play for a conference title.
In the Big Ten and SEC, where winning the league isn’t a do-or-die proposition, that’s fine. In the ACC, where only the champion might get a playoff bid and there’s a real chance that six different teams will tie atop the conference with a 6-2 league record — well, that’s a big issue.
So, why not just tweak the rules of how a conference championship game is seeded? What if one spot goes to the team with the best conference record and the other spot goes to the next highest ranked team? Doing so would ensure both the most deserving team (best record) and best team (highest ranked) got a shot, and it would’ve ended any concerns about the ACC being passed by multiple Group of 5 leagues, because a mediocre team like Duke would’ve had no shot at winning the league.
The ACC has bent over backward to try to find unique solutions to potentially existential problems in recent years. This is a change that would be forward thinking, easy and beneficial to the league’s playoff prospects.
It just won’t come in time to save Miami in 2025.
Remember last week when Tulane was also No. 24, just ahead of Arizona State, and behind Illinois, Houston and Missouri, who all lost? It might seem reasonable, given that precondition, that Tulane would then move up, say, three spots or so, while remaining a tick ahead of Arizona State.
But no, a week later, the Green Wave still check in at No. 24, a spot the committee seems to have set aside as “Where we put a Group of 5 team,” like the junk drawer in your kitchen that holds packing tape and birthday candles and those weird scented oils your mother-in-law ordered for you off TV — a placeholder for all the stuff you don’t know what else to do with.
In the big picture, it probably doesn’t matter. As long as Tulane stays ahead of its compatriots in the Group of 5 — winning the American, out-ranking James Madison — the Green Wave will make the playoff. And perhaps that’s all that matters.
But of the teams that jumped Tulane in the rankings this week are Arizona State — still with a chance to win the Big 12 — and Pitt and SMU, who have decent odds of making the ACC title game. Georgia Tech, despite a miserable loss to Pitt, also held firm ahead of the Green Wave.
A year ago, the ACC’s championship game implosion earned Clemson a bid into the playoff, but also shifted the ACC behind Boise State, the best Group of 5 champion, allowing the Broncos to land a bye. The stakes have changed for 2025-26 — the top four conference champs are no longer guaranteed an off week — but that doesn’t mean Tulane should be fine settling for the 12-seed either.
Tulane’s strength of record is ahead of Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pitt. If one of those teams claims the ACC’s playoff berth, what’s the rationale for putting them ahead of the Green Wave? And the difference between the No. 11 seed and the No. 12 seed might be about traveling to the SEC or the Big 12 for a playoff game.
The Group of 5 has largely been set to the side by this committee all year, so none of this comes as a surprise. But Tulane — or JMU or Navy or North Texas or San Diego State — all deserve to be judged on the merits of their résumés, not by which conference they’re affiliated with.
The bottom of the top 25 seems to be prime real estate for the ACC, but the one ACC team who might most deserve one of those coveted spots between 20 and 25 is nowhere to be found.
Wake Forest has the same record as SMU, and it beat the Mustangs head-to-head.
Wake Forest has a better overall résumé than Georgia Tech, and it only lost to the Yellow Jackets (in overtime) as a result of an officiating call the ACC later apologized for.
Wake Forest is a game behind Virginia in the standings, and the Deacons have a head-to-head win over the No. 18 Cavaliers, too.
Look, Wake Forest doesn’t ask for much. The Deacons are like the friend who’s always willing to pick you up from the airport, only better because they’ll probably bring along a box of Krispy Kreme. So if some ACC team that no one respects is going to be ranked 23rd regardless, why not Wake? Because the next time a committee member’s connection gets delayed out of CLT, it won’t be Pitt offering to pick them up and give them an air mattress to crash on. That’s strictly a Wake Forest thing.
Also angry this week: James Madison Dukes (10-1, unranked), North Texas Mean Green (10-1, unranked and now losing their coach), Navy Midshipmen (8-2, unranked), Utah Utes (9-2, No. 13 after being this week’s team that somehow isn’t as good as Miami anymore), Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2, No. 10 and far too close to the edge of the playoff for comfort)
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