Artificial Intelligence will have significant impacts on geopolitics and globalization, Ian Bremmer told CNBC.
Leigh Vogel | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images
Artificial Intelligence will have a significant impact on both geopolitics and globalization, according to Ian Bremmer, political scientist and president of the Eurasia Group.
“I think that AI is transformative for the geopolitical order, both in good ways and in problematic ways,” Bremmer told CNBC’s Tania Bryer for “The CNBC Conversation.”
On the plus side, AI could drive “a new globalization,” Bremmer said — at a time when questions about the state and future of globalization abound. The new technology could see the creation and development of a new global middle class get a boost, he added.
“Anyone with a smartphone will have access to it,” Bremmer explained, adding that he believes this will increase human capital around the world. Areas like medicine and education will be strengthened, while industrial and scientific processes will become more efficient, he suggested.
“In other words, I’m an enthusiast about what this technology will do for the world,” Bremmer said.
However, he also pointed to risks that could lead to negative disruption — and warned that the world is not yet prepared for this. For example, anyone can use AI to write code, but it can also be used to hack into systems or create malware, Bremmer pointed out. Similarly, it may be used to develop vaccines — but also viruses — he added.
“That means that the governance that occurs is going to have to be not just about governments, but the technology companies too. We’re not ready for that, but that’s the reality,” Bremmer said.
Policymakers catching up
Global leaders and policymakers may not be ready yet, Bremmer told CNBC, but they are catching up.
“A year ago, I can’t think of a single conversation I had with a global leader, anywhere in the world, where they were asking about AI — where they were fundamentally concerned about the implications of AI for their political systems, for the global economy, for national security,” he said.
“Today, I can barely think of a single global leader that doesn’t ask me about it.”
This includes countries around the world such as China, the U.S. and U.K., as well as international organizations like the European Union and G7, Bremmer explained. While learning about AI, they are assessing what they do and don’t know, as well as the role technology companies play, he said.
Since the AI boom began at the end of 2022, countries have been racing to understand and regulate the technology. It’s proved a significant challenge for lawmakers due to the incredibly fast growth of AI in the public domain, and the varying challenges it could bring — from job security to national security.
In June, EU lawmakers passed regulations that would require new AI tools, such as chatbots, to be reviewed before being released to the wider population, and ban elements of the technology such as real-time face recognition.
But for AI to be properly regulated, a greater understanding of it needs to be established, Bremmer told CNBC.
“You can’t govern it until you know what it is,” he said.
“We need a United Nations-driven process, an intergovernmental panel on artificial intelligence, with the governments, the scientists, the companies together to understand the basic state of play of what AI can do, who the principal actors are, what the opportunities are, what the dangers are.”
For Bremmer, it’s crucial that countries and other actors work together in this field — rather than compete with each other.
“It’s not like nukes, where you have a few countries that have them and you stop everyone else from getting it,” he said. Instead, the decentralized, open-source nature of AI means that anyone will be able to access the latest developments and use them for either good or bad.
Global oversight is therefore key, Bremmer said, suggesting a “geo-technology stability board” as one possible solution. This would see countries and tech companies work together to “try to ensure that we don’t regulate people out of existence, but we have the ability to respond to ensure that the market of AI globally continues to function.”
“It cannot be the U.S. versus China,” Bremmer concluded.
Some countries have already indicated they would be open to collaborating on AI regulation, or at least engaging with peers on the topic. Top French politicians, for example, said they would work with the U.S. on laws around the technology.
A motorcycle is seen near a building of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which is a Taiwanese multinational semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company, in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on April 16, 2025.
Here are TSMC’s first-quarter results versus LSEG consensus estimates:
Revenue: $839.25 billion New Taiwan dollars, vs. NT$835.13 billion expected
Net income: NT$361.56 billion, vs. NT$354.14 billion
TSMC’s reported net income increased 60.3% from a year ago to NT$361.56 billion, while net revenue in the March quarter rose 41.6% from a year earlier to NT$839.25 billion.
The world’s largest contract chip manufacturer has benefited from the AI boom as it produces advanced processors for clients such American chip designer Nvidia.
However, the company faces headwinds from the trade policy of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has placed broad trade tariffs on Taiwan and stricter export controls on TSMC clients Nvidia and AMD.
Semiconductor export controls could also be expanded next month under the “AI diffusion rules” first proposed by the Biden administration, further restricting the sales of chipmakers that use TSMC foundries.
Taiwan currently faces a blanket 10% tariff from the Trump administration and that could rise to 32% after the President’s 90-day pause of his “reciprocal tariffs” ends unless it reaches a deal with the U.S.
As part of efforts to diversify its supply chains, TSMC has been investing billions in overseas facilities, though the lion’s share of its manufacturing remains in Taiwan.
In an apparent response to Trump’s trade policy, TSMC last month announced plans to invest an additional $100 billion in the U.S. on top of the $65 billion it has committed to three plants in the U.S.
On Monday, AMD said it would soon manufacture processor chips at one of the new Arizona-based TSMC facilities, marking the first time that its chips will be manufactured in the U.S.
The same day, Nvidia announced that it has already started production of its Blackwell chips at TSMC’s Arizona plants. It plans to produce up to half a trillion dollars of AI infrastructure in the U.S. over the next four years through partners, including TSMC.
Taiwan-listed shares of TSMC were down about 0.4%. Shares have lost about 20% so far this year.
Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., during the opening ceremony of the Siliconware Precision Industries Co. (SPIL) Tan Ke Plant in Taichung, Taiwan, on Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025.
An Rong Xu | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A day after Nvidia revealed it would incur $5.5 billion in costs related to canceled orders for the H20 chip, which the government said this week requires a license to export to China, the company said it abides by rules on where it can sell its artificial intelligence processors.
“The U.S. government instructs American businesses on what they can sell and where — we follow the government’s directions to the letter,” an Nvidia representative said in a statement.
Nvidia said the statement was in response to a House Select Committee focused on national security threats from China, which opened an investigation into Nvidia’s sales on Wednesday. The H20 was introduced by Nvidia after the Biden administration restricted AI chip exports in 2022. It’s a slowed-down version intended to comply with U.S. export controls.
Nvidia’s brief comment is an indication of how the company is going to defend its business in Washington, D.C., as its technology draws increased scrutiny related to national defense and security. The company’s stock price tumbled almost 7% on Wednesday.
Nvidia’s chips have the vast majority of the market for AI applications, and some were used by China’s DeepSeek to build R1, which upended markets in January.
On Wednesday, the chipmaker touted the taxes it paid, its U.S.-based workforce, and its role as a technology leader.
The company’s exports even help the U.S. fix its trade deficit, the statement said, directly addressing President Trump’s stated reason for introducing tariffs earlier this month.
“NVIDIA protects and enhances national security by creating U.S. jobs and infrastructure, promoting U.S. technology leadership, bringing billions of dollars of tax revenue to the U.S. treasury, and alleviating the massive U.S. trade deficit,” according to the statement.
One challenge for Nvidia is that the H20 was legal for export to China until last week, under previous Biden administration rules. But the House Select Committee said on Wednesday the sale of H20 chips for the past year was effectively a “loophole.”
“The technology industry supports America when it exports to well-known companies worldwide – if the government felt otherwise, it would instruct us,” Nvidia said in its statement.
The government is also investigating whether shipments of restricted chips to China went through Singapore, Nvidia’s second-largest market by billing address with just under $24 billion in sales in the company’s past fiscal year, according to filings.
Nvidia clarified on Wednesday that its Singapore revenue indicates sales with a billing address in the country, often for subsidiaries of U.S. customers.
“The associated products are shipped to other locations, including the United States and Taiwan, not to China,” Nvidia said.
In addition to Chinese export controls and the congressional investigation, Nvidia also faces additional restrictions on what it can export starting next month, under “AI diffusion rules” first proposed by the Biden administration.
Former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Chris Krebs testifies before a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs hearing to examine claims of voter irregularities in the 2020 election, in the Dirksen Senate Office Building, in Washington, U.S., December 16, 2020.
Jim Lo Scalzo | Reuters
A week ago, President Donald Trump signed an executive order targeting former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Chief Chris Krebs, and calling on the government to suspend the security clearances of any entities with whom he’s associated. The order specifically named SentinelOne, Krebs’ employer.
On Wednesday, Krebs announced his resignation from SentinelOne, a cybersecurity company with a $5.6 billion market cap. While Krebs said the choice was his alone, his swift departure is the latest example of the effect Trump is having on the private sector when it comes to pressuring people and institutions that he personally dislikes.
Krebs had served as SentinelOne’s chief intelligence and public policy officer since late 2023, when the company acquired his consulting firm.
“For those who know me, you know I don’t shy away from tough fights,” Krebs wrote in an email to SentinelOne staffers that the company posted on its website. “But I also know this is one I need to take on fully — outside of SentinelOne. This will require my complete focus and energy. It’s a fight for democracy, for freedom of speech, and for the rule of law. I’m prepared to give it everything I’ve got.”
Krebs served as the first CISA director from 2018 until he was fired in November 2020 after declaring that the presidential election, which Democrat Joe Biden won, was “the most secure in American history.” CISA is part of the Department of Homeland Security.
In his executive order on April 9, which took the extraordinary approach of going after a specific individual, Trump called Krebs a “bad-faith actor who weaponized and abused his Government authority.”
“Krebs’ misconduct involved the censorship of disfavored speech implicating the 2020 election and COVID-19 pandemic,” the order said. “Krebs, through CISA, falsely and baselessly denied that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen, including by inappropriately and categorically dismissing widespread election malfeasance and serious vulnerabilities with voting machines.”
Trump directed the attorney general, director of national intelligence and “all other relevant agencies” to suspend “any active security clearances held by individuals at entities associated with Krebs, including SentinelOne, pending a review of whether such clearances are consistent with the national interest.”
The Wall Street Journal was first to report on Krebs’ departure from SentinelOne, publishing a story on Wednesday based on an interview with Krebs. He told the Journal that he was leaving to push back on Trump’s efforts “to go after corporate interests and corporate relationships.”
The demands on SentinelOne resemble campaigns that President Trump has waged against law firms and universities that he’s tried to strongarm into making significant changes in how they operate or else lose government contracts or funding.
SentinelOne, which uses artificial intelligence to detect threat and prevent cyberattacks, doesn’t disclose how much of its revenue comes from the government. But the company acknowledges in the risk factors section of its financial reports that it relies on government agencies for some of its business and can be hurt by changes in policy.
“Our future growth depends, in part, on increasing sales to government organizations,” the latest quarterly filing says. Specific to Trump, SentinelOne said that the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency, which Elon Musk is running, could lead to budgetary changes that “adversely affect the funding for and purchases of our platform by government organizations.”
SentinelOne CEO Tomer Weingarten told employees in a memo, also posted to the company’s site on Wednesday, that Krebs “helped shape important conversations and strengthened public-private collaboration.” The company previously said, in a blog post after the executive order, that fewer than 10 employees had security clearances.
“Accordingly, we do not expect this to materially impact our business in any way,” the post said.