Supply cuts from heavyweight crude producers have helped drive oil prices near $100 per barrel — fueling some to consider the potential for future demand destruction.
Brent crude futures rose 63 cents per barrel from the Thursday settlement to $96.01 per barrel on Friday at 11 a.m. London time and sit well above prices observed in the first half of the year.
The gains could prove short lived, some analysts warn. Sushant Gupta, research director of Asia refining at Wood Mackenzie, on Monday said “there are all signs that we could potentially see $100 per barrel in quarter four,” but warned that global economic fragility and incoming seasonal demand drops in the first quarter would make this unsustainable long term. In a Friday report, ING analysts signaled the oil market is “clearly in overbought territory.”
At the heart of price support are a series of voluntary cuts that fall outside of the official policy of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+. First is a 1.66 million-barrel-per-day decline implemented by some OPEC+ members until the end of 2024. Topping this, Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to respectively remove another 1 million barrel per day of production and 300,000 barrels per day of exports until the end of this year.
Some say buyers can weather the storm of high prices. Seven European refiners and traders, who spoke under anonymity because of contractual obligations, told CNBC that local buyers can withstand oil prices veering into triple digits without lowering their output runs. All of the sources pointed to firm refining margins, meaning the difference between the value of refined products and the price of the crude feedstock to generate them is favorable.
Uncertainty lingers over further China fuel export quotas, while Russia’s indefinite ban of its fuel exports — which Europe cannot purchase because of sanctions that followed Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — has tightened availabilities of refined products and could particularly worsen global diesel shortages. Sanctions-disrupted access to Russian crude and OPEC+ cuts have shrunk availabilities of high-density and high-sulfur crude to Western buyers, encumbering their task to produce certain refined products.
Refinery margins so far have nevertheless been attractive enough that some refiners have lightened their seasonal maintenance to take advantage, one refiner said. Refined oil product demand could yet stay strong in the West, as Thanksgiving and winter vacations boost travel in the U.S. and Europe, and the hurricane season looms — which can historically disrupt both local refining and crude production.
“We estimate a high-impact hurricane event this year could result in a temporary loss of monthly offshore crude oil production of about 1.5 million barrels per day (b/d) and a nearly equivalent temporary loss of refining capacity,” the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in July.
“Outages on that scale could increase monthly average U.S. retail gasoline prices by between 25 cents per gallon and 30 cents per gallon.”
‘Self-fulfilling prophecy’
Some European market participants polled by CNBC doubted triple-digit oil prices are sustainable in the long term, with three pointing to possible demand destruction — where customers gradually answer persistently high prices with fewer purchases. A fourth said demand destruction is a potential question, once prices hit $110 per barrel.
“Sometimes high oil prices can become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Indian Energy Minister Hardeep Singh Puri warned in August. “The self-fulfilling prophecy means that at a particular point of time comes a tipping, and then there’s a fall of demand.”
One of the market sources also noted that steep backwardation — where current prices exceed future ones and a key metric to assess the viability of storage — discourages stocking refined products, leaving the market vulnerable to any disruptions.
“OPEC+ production cuts, including the voluntary extra cut by Saudi Arabia, are bearing fruit, lowering oil inventories and supporting prices,” UBS Strategist Giovanni Staunovo said in a Thursday note, pegging the bank’s oil price estimate at $90-100 per barrel over the coming months.
The oil price hike has benefitted Moscow despite sanctions. Under a program by the G7 largest global economies, non-G7 buyers may only use Western shipping and insurance to import Russian crude purchased at or below $60 per barrel.
But Moscow has been deploying its own dark fleet, and traders say Russia’s flagship Urals crude currently sells at roughly $8-10-per-barrel discounts to benchmark oil prices, implying values $25 per barrel above the G7 price cap. The Russian energy ministry did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.
OPEC+ move
An OPEC+ technical committee meets on Oct. 4 to review market fundamentals and individual production compliance. While incapable of adjusting OPEC+ policy, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee can call an emergency ministerial meeting to do so. Three OPEC+ delegates, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the discussions, told CNBC it is unlikely this upcoming JMMC meeting will result in policy tweaks.
The White House has previously vocally entreated OPEC+ producers to hike output, ease prices at the pump and alleviate inflation — but Washington has been largely silent in response to the production declines. In October last year, the U.S. levied accusations of coercion over other OPEC+ members against de-facto group leader Saudi Arabia, which depends on oil revenues for its economic diversification giga-projects.
The White House faces a difficult balancing act, as it pushes for a normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, two top allies in the Middle East. Riyadh has also shown signs of steering closer toward China and Russia after rekindling relations with Iran through Beijing-mediated talks and receiving an invitation to join the emerging economies’ BRICS alliance. A spate of high-profile U.S. official visits to Saudi Arabia over the summer suggests ongoing discussions — though it remains to be seen if oil re-enters the diplomatic agenda.
RBC Head of Global Commodity Strategy Helima Croft, who says “we clearly see momentum” for Brent at $100 per barrel, stressed the absence of many options left in the U.S. toolkit.
“Will there be an energy component of a potential U.S.-Saudi deal? I think the Saudi administration would clearly like more Saudi barrels on the market, because, look, there are not a lot of great options for this administration to get prices down,” she said on Wednesday.
“They’ve already done the big [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] release, the question is are they really going do more … they’ve done deals with Iran, but those barrels are already in the market, so it’s not clear where the administration goes next for additional barrels.”
Hop on Greenworks’ 80V STEALTH electric mini-bike with Bluetooth speakers and rare price cut to $1,440 for Prime Day
As part of its Prime Big Deal Days, Amazon is offering a rare price cut on the Greenworks 80V STEALTH Electric Mini Bike to $1,439.99 shipped. Normally sitting up at its full $1,800 price, discounts are pretty rare on this model, as opposed to the few but more frequent savings that hit its counterparts in the brand’s e-transportation series. We saw the price drop to its lowest to $1,349 in May, with the deal here coming in as the second-best rate that saves you $360 off the tag.
This is the most advanced of Greenworks’ e-transportation lineup, which all take advantage of the brand’s versatile and interchangeable batteries for power, letting you get more bang for your buck, especially when you have quite the arsenal of the brand’s tools. The Greenworks 80V STEALTH electric mini-bike is powered by the two included 8.0Ah batteries to carry you for up to 27 miles, only taking two hours to recharge thanks to the 8A dual-port charger. The stylish mini-bike frame houses a 1,000W brushless rear hub STEALTH motor (hence the name), which can top out at 20 MPH when in its Eco mode and up to 25 MPH when set to the Sport mode.
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Compared to the other e-bikes in the brand’s series, this model brings along a much larger list of additional features, like the front fork suspension, dual rear shock absorbers, 19-inch all-terrain tires, an integrated headlight and taillight with three settings, an IPX4 water-resistant build, a push-button start, 3-in-1 functionality (forward, neutral, reverse), integrated Bluetooth speakers, an LED screen, and more.
Prime Day drops 52-inch EGO Z6 cordless zero-turn riding mower with 6x 12.0Ah batteries to $5,600, more
As part of its ongoing Prime Big Deal Days, Amazon is offering up to 28% discounts on a collection of EGO Power+ lawn care equipment. One notable price cut during this event is on the newest EGO Z6 52-inch Cordless Electric Zero-Turn Riding Lawn Mower with six 12.0Ah batteries for $5,599.99 shipped. Normally going for $6,999 in full, the few discounts we’ve seen hit it over the year have taken the costs down as low as $5,499, which we last saw at the top of April. The deal here provides a 20% markdown off the going rate, slashing $1,399 off the tag for the third-lowest price we have tracked. You can also find a large number of other tools seeing discounts in the brand’s official storefront here, with the best of them collected together below.
Navee’s Autumn Sale increases EV savings for Prime Day, with its flagship ST3 Pro dropping to $710, more
Navee’s ongoing Autumn EV Sale has increased savings on e-scooters for the week of Prime Day, complete with bonus savings and some free gear too. A notable price cut is coming to the brand’s flagship ST3 Pro Smart Electric Scooter for $709.99 shipped, after using the code AFF50 at checkout for an additional $50 off the price, with the first 30 orders also getting a free chain lock (a $49 value). This model released back in March and carries a $950 MSRP these days, which we’ve mostly seen discounted to $760 during most sales, though there have been falls as low as $685 and $660 in the past. While this event continues, you can score $240 off the going rate for the third-lowest price we have tracked, which also beats out its Amazon pricing by $50.
The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.
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The new Nissan LEAF is among the most affordable electric vehicles in the US, with a starting price under $30,000. Overseas, it’s a different story. To keep pace with BYD, Hyundai, and others, Nissan revealed a new, lower-priced LEAF B5 model in Japan.
Meet the new Nissan LEAF B7, next up is the B5
We got our first look at the third-gen LEAF in June. Although Nissan’s iconic electric hatch was once a top-selling electric vehicle, it was long overdue for an update.
The new LEAF is back and better than ever, boasting a significantly longer driving range, faster charging, and a new crossover SUV-like design.
Even with the improvements, Nissan claims the 2026 LEAF has “the lowest starting MSRP for any new EV currently on sale in the US” at just $29,990. That’s even cheaper than the first model, which arrived in 2011 for $32,780.
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Overseas, including in its home market of Japan, it won’t be so easy. Nissan faces stiff competition from lower-cost electric vehicles from BYD, Hyundai, Kia, and several other brands.
Nissan announced plans to launch a new, lower-priced “LEAF B5” model on Wednesday, aiming to fend off the wave of new competition entering the Japanese market.
Nissan unveils the new LEAF B7, plans for lower-priced B5 model (Source: Nissan)
Nissan said it plans to launch the lower-priced LEAF B5 in February 2026. It will feature a smaller 55 kWh battery and “is expected to be priced more affordably for a wider range of customers,” the company said.
In the meantime, Nissan will open orders for the LEAF B7 in Japan on October 17, with deliveries scheduled to begin in January 2026.
New Nissan LEAF B7 models (Source: Nissan)
Powered by a 78 kWh battery, the B7 variant delivers a WLTC driving range of up to 702 km (436 miles). Using a 150 kW fast charger, Nissan said it can also recharge from 10% to 80% in 35 minutes.
The third-gen LEAF features a new energy management system and battery conditioning feature to optimize energy consumption.
The new Nissan LEAF B7 interior (Source: Nissan)
Inside, the new Nissan LEAF B7 looks about the same as the other model, with a dual 12.3″ display at the center.
Nissan offers two grades, “X” and “G.” The LEAF B7 X starts at 5,188,700 yen ($34,000) while the G model is priced from 5,999,400 yen ($39,300).
Both the B7 and B5 will receive an AUTECH upgrade. The LEAF B7 AUTECH starts at 6,513,100 yen ($42,600), while prices for the B5 version have yet to be announced.
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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang believes that America refocusing on energy growth will not only help the U.S. win on artificial intelligence but also fuel continued economic growth. Jim Cramer says he has the power stock to own, which has found itself at the heart of providing solutions to companies looking to generate more energy to meet booming demand for AI computing. During the Investing Club’s October Monthly Meeting , Jensen told Jim that “without energy growth, there is no industrial growth, without industrial growth, there’s no stock price growth, there’s no economic growth, there’s no national security.” It’s increasingly clear that energy scarcity is holding back the world’s biggest tech companies from doing more with AI. Jensen has said it. The leaders of OpenAI, which got a long-term $100 billion investment from Nvidia to help build data center capacity, have said it. “The realization that we have to go back and become a country that has energy growth is really foundational, it’s really great,” the Nvidia CEO said at Tuesday’s Club meeting from the New York Stock Exchange. He credited President Donald Trump ‘s leadership on energy and encouraged AI data centers to be “power generators themselves.” There are many ways for data centers to make the extra energy they need when the country’s power grid is overtaxed. “Over the next several years, nuclear is going to come online, and I hope that we’ll get that going as fast as possible,” Jensen said, pointing out that power generators are already becoming part of the data center playbook. To capitalize on AI’s insatiable need for energy, Jim told members during Wednesday’s Morning Meeting , “We bought the right [stock]. We bought GE Vernova because they are the real builder of these … small modular [nuclear] reactors.” While additional nuclear capacity is a few years off, GE Vernova has a booming business in the here and now selling natural gas-powered turbines – basically, these are huge engines that create gobs of energy. The company’s CEO, Scott Strazik, said it himself at last month’s Morgan Stanley’s Laguna Conference. “Not only is the world going to need more energy, but the proportion of that energy that’s going to be coming from electrical power is going to grow.” Jim has been urging GE Vernova management to more substantially increase turbine production to meet that demand. Last month, Jim said, “When I spoke to Scott Strazik, begging him, literally begging him, to increase capacity, he said the last three times that people have done that it’s been a disaster.” On Wednesday, Jim said during the meeting, “If we’re going to have enough power, it’s going to be GE Vernova. They are the largest maker of turbines.” Jim suggested that Trump call up GE Vernova to tell them to increase turbine production. On Tuesday morning, we bought more shares of GE Vernova. We had been waiting for this stock to come off the boil. While up Wednesday, the stock is still down more than 7% from its all-time closing of $664.55 on Aug. 6. Shares have been trading mostly sideways since surging 14% to $629 on July 23, following a much better-than-expected quarter and a raised full-year outlook . As Jeff Marks, director of portfolio analysis for the Club, wrote in our trade alert : “In keeping with our view of patiently waiting for a pullback to buy what Cramer has previously called ‘maybe the best story in the entire market,’ we are nibbling on shares and upgrading our rating to 1,” which is the Club’s buy equivalent rating. The stock has soared nearly 90% year to date. Our conviction in the long-term demand for AI infrastructure has increased over the past few weeks following OpenAI’s deals with Nvidia and rival chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices . More AI infrastructure means more demand for energy. Marks also wrote Tuesday, “One thing we’re wondering is whether OpenAI will also make deals with power suppliers like GE Vernova, whose gas turbines are used to generate electricity, and its electrification products provide grid solutions and power conversion.” Already, some GE Vernova turbines will be used at an on-site natural gas plant being built in Texas on the massive Stargate data center campus co-developed by OpenAI. Stargate was announced to much fanfare at the White House in January, shortly after Trump took office. GEV YTD mountain GE Vernova YTD Another tailwind for GE Vernova is that these turbines are big-ticket items that have been a way for countries to reduce their trade deficits with the United States. For example, when the president visited the Mideast in May, GE Vernova was the recipient of $14 billion worth of gas turbines and energy solutions orders from Saudi Arabia as part of the kingdom’s commitment to invest $600 billion in the U.S. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long GEV. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. 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