Oil prices near 0 per barrel raise questions over demand destruction

Oil prices near $100 per barrel raise questions over demand destruction

Published

2 years ago

September 29, 2023

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Supply cuts from heavyweight crude producers have helped drive oil prices near $100 per barrel — fueling some to consider the potential for future demand destruction.

Brent crude futures rose 63 cents per barrel from the Thursday settlement to $96.01 per barrel on Friday at 11 a.m. London time and sit well above prices observed in the first half of the year.

The gains could prove short lived, some analysts warn. Sushant Gupta, research director of Asia refining at Wood Mackenzie, on Monday said “there are all signs that we could potentially see $100 per barrel in quarter four,” but warned that global economic fragility and incoming seasonal demand drops in the first quarter would make this unsustainable long term. In a Friday report, ING analysts signaled the oil market is “clearly in overbought territory.”

Wood Mackenzie says oil is unlikely to stay at $100 a barrel for a long time

At the heart of price support are a series of voluntary cuts that fall outside of the official policy of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+. First is a 1.66 million-barrel-per-day decline implemented by some OPEC+ members until the end of 2024. Topping this, Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to respectively remove another 1 million barrel per day of production and 300,000 barrels per day of exports until the end of this year.

This adds to a picture of improving Chinese demand — which analysts say could soon peak — and inventory drops.

Some say buyers can weather the storm of high prices. Seven European refiners and traders, who spoke under anonymity because of contractual obligations, told CNBC that local buyers can withstand oil prices veering into triple digits without lowering their output runs. All of the sources pointed to firm refining margins, meaning the difference between the value of refined products and the price of the crude feedstock to generate them is favorable.

Uncertainty lingers over further China fuel export quotas, while Russia’s indefinite ban of its fuel exports — which Europe cannot purchase because of sanctions that followed Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — has tightened availabilities of refined products and could particularly worsen global diesel shortages. Sanctions-disrupted access to Russian crude and OPEC+ cuts have shrunk availabilities of high-density and high-sulfur crude to Western buyers, encumbering their task to produce certain refined products.

Refinery margins so far have nevertheless been attractive enough that some refiners have lightened their seasonal maintenance to take advantage, one refiner said. Refined oil product demand could yet stay strong in the West, as Thanksgiving and winter vacations boost travel in the U.S. and Europe, and the hurricane season looms — which can historically disrupt both local refining and crude production.

“We estimate a high-impact hurricane event this year could result in a temporary loss of monthly offshore crude oil production of about 1.5 million barrels per day (b/d) and a nearly equivalent temporary loss of refining capacity,” the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in July.

“Outages on that scale could increase monthly average U.S. retail gasoline prices by between 25 cents per gallon and 30 cents per gallon.”

‘Self-fulfilling prophecy’

Some European market participants polled by CNBC doubted triple-digit oil prices are sustainable in the long term, with three pointing to possible demand destruction — where customers gradually answer persistently high prices with fewer purchases. A fourth said demand destruction is a potential question, once prices hit $110 per barrel.

“Sometimes high oil prices can become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Indian Energy Minister Hardeep Singh Puri warned in August. “The self-fulfilling prophecy means that at a particular point of time comes a tipping, and then there’s a fall of demand.”

One of the market sources also noted that steep backwardation — where current prices exceed future ones and a key metric to assess the viability of storage — discourages stocking refined products, leaving the market vulnerable to any disruptions.

“OPEC+ production cuts, including the voluntary extra cut by Saudi Arabia, are bearing fruit, lowering oil inventories and supporting prices,” UBS Strategist Giovanni Staunovo said in a Thursday note, pegging the bank’s oil price estimate at $90-100 per barrel over the coming months.

The oil price hike has benefitted Moscow despite sanctions. Under a program by the G7 largest global economies, non-G7 buyers may only use Western shipping and insurance to import Russian crude purchased at or below $60 per barrel.

But Moscow has been deploying its own dark fleet, and traders say Russia’s flagship Urals crude currently sells at roughly $8-10-per-barrel discounts to benchmark oil prices, implying values $25 per barrel above the G7 price cap. The Russian energy ministry did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.

OPEC+ move

An OPEC+ technical committee meets on Oct. 4 to review market fundamentals and individual production compliance. While incapable of adjusting OPEC+ policy, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee can call an emergency ministerial meeting to do so. Three OPEC+ delegates, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the discussions, told CNBC it is unlikely this upcoming JMMC meeting will result in policy tweaks.

The White House has previously vocally entreated OPEC+ producers to hike output, ease prices at the pump and alleviate inflation — but Washington has been largely silent in response to the production declines. In October last year, the U.S. levied accusations of coercion over other OPEC+ members against de-facto group leader Saudi Arabia, which depends on oil revenues for its economic diversification giga-projects.

The White House faces a difficult balancing act, as it pushes for a normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, two top allies in the Middle East. Riyadh has also shown signs of steering closer toward China and Russia after rekindling relations with Iran through Beijing-mediated talks and receiving an invitation to join the emerging economies’ BRICS alliance. A spate of high-profile U.S. official visits to Saudi Arabia over the summer suggests ongoing discussions — though it remains to be seen if oil re-enters the diplomatic agenda.

It's not clear where the White House goes next to alleviate oil prices, says RBC's Helima Croft

RBC Head of Global Commodity Strategy Helima Croft, who says “we clearly see momentum” for Brent at $100 per barrel, stressed the absence of many options left in the U.S. toolkit.

“Will there be an energy component of a potential U.S.-Saudi deal? I think the Saudi administration would clearly like more Saudi barrels on the market, because, look, there are not a lot of great options for this administration to get prices down,” she said on Wednesday.

“They’ve already done the big [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] release, the question is are they really going do more … they’ve done deals with Iran, but those barrels are already in the market, so it’s not clear where the administration goes next for additional barrels.”

Environment

Why a landmark ruling from the world’s top court puts financial markets on notice

Published

8 hours ago

August 15, 2025

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Why a landmark ruling from the world’s top court puts financial markets on notice

Vanuatu’s Climate Change Minister Ralph Regenvanu (C) delivers a speech as he attends a demonstration ahead of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) session tasked with issuing the first Advisory Opinion (AO) on States’ legal obligations to address climate change, in The Hague on July 23, 2025.

John Thys | Afp | Getty Images

Gripped by corporate earnings season and U.S. President Donald Trump‘s back-and-forth tariff policy, investors largely shrugged off a historic climate ruling from the world’s top court.

But for some, the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) recent advisory opinion on state’s legal obligations in the face of climate change could emerge as a watershed moment for financial markets.

Günther Thallinger, a board member at Allianz, one of the world’s biggest insurers, said that close watchers of the ICJ’s July 23 ruling described it as perhaps the most significant climate development since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

At the time, the pronouncement marked the ICJ’s first-ever opinion on climate change and laid out that climate action is not optional.

The court said in a unanimous ruling that governments and countries have a legal obligation to protect the environment from greenhouse gas emissions, protect present and future generations from the climate crisis and to cooperate internationally.

Notably, the ICJ also found that fossil fuel production, including licensing and subsidies, “may constitute an internationally wrongful act which is attributable to that State.”

This opinion for investors, for capital market participants, really means something.

Günther Thallinger

Board member at Allianz

The ruling, which was the brainchild of young law students in low-lying Pacific island states and championed by the government of Vanuatu, is widely expected to have far-reaching legal and political consequences.

Speaking in a personal capacity, Thallinger said that while the ICJ’s opinion is based on existing law and conventions, the ruling could yet have meaningful ramifications for a vast range of assets — whether one cares about climate change or not.

“If one takes as an investor what the International Court of Justice just said, then a revaluation of these assets needs to happen. Every prudent investor must do this now,” Thallinger told CNBC by video call.

“Even if they don’t like the discussion around climate change, even if they would say they denigrate the Court of Justice completely, they must expect that, in some countries, some governments, some courts are going to follow this opinion,” Thallinger said.

“If they follow this opinion, it has asset valuation implications, quite clearly. So, this opinion for investors, for capital market participants, really means something.”

Licensing and subsidies

On the issue of licensing and subsidies, Thallinger said the ICJ’s ruling could prove to be a significant development.

That’s because licensing and permitting for the mining sector, for example, and government subsidies for fossil fuels could be at risk following the court opinion. The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas is the chief driver of the climate crisis.

“If subsides are unlawful, then one should expect that subsidies are somehow stopped at a certain point in time,” Thallinger said.

“Now, certain business processes live on these subsidies or at least benefit to a certain degree on these subsidies. And, as always for an investor, usually you look simply at the cashflow, and if the cashflow part is missing or all of a sudden becomes much smaller then that means another valuation,” he added.

President of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) Yuji Iwasawa (C) and members issue first Advisory Opinion (AO) on States’ legal obligations to address climate change, in The Hague on July 23, 2025.

John Thys | Afp | Getty Images

The U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest carbon emitters, provided a mixed response to the ICJ’s ruling.

“As always, President Trump and the entire administration is committed to putting America first and prioritizing the interests of everyday Americans,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in response to the court opinion, Reuters reported.

A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, said the ruling has a “positive significance” for advancing international climate cooperation and sought to reaffirm the Asian country’s status as a developing country.

Mixed signals

Not everyone is as concerned about the ICJ’s ruling from an investor standpoint.

“I feel like the wide spectrum of views that exist in the investor community on climate change, and the action that investors are supposed to take, will probably mean that the decision is a bit of a Rorschach test,” Lindsey Stewart, director of institutional insights for Morningstar, told CNBC by video call.

“People are just going to see things that kind of confirm their existing view,” he added.

A Rorschach test refers to a psychological assessment during which a person is asked to describe what they see in a series of inkblots.

Ida Kassa Johannesen, head of commercial ESG at Saxo Bank, said the ICJ’s intervention is a non-binding advisory opinion, rather than a ruling, “and this distinction is crucial.”

Companies with significant environmental footprints, such as those in the oil and gas, mining and heavy industry sectors, are likely to face increased litigation risk, which could affect their costs, valuation and reputation, Johannesen told CNBC by email.

“As a result, investors and particular large institutional investors may begin to reallocate capital away from high-risk sectors to manage exposure to climate-related legal and reputational risks,” she added.

Saxo Bank’s Johannesen pointed out that the U.S. and China both expressed reservations about the ICJ’s opinion, emphasizing its non-binding nature and calling for flexibility in climate action.

The Trump administration also recently signed into law the U.S. president’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a package that is favorable to mining and oil and gas companies.

“All this sends mixed signals which would probably lead to fragmented market responses between the world’s 2 largest economies and the [rest of the world], slow down global regulatory convergence and ultimately limit the (short-term) impact on markets and investor behavior,” Johannesen said.

A firefighter falls on the ground while working to extinguish a wildfire in San Cibrao das Viñas, outside Ourense, northwestern Spain, on August 12, 2025.

Miguel Riopa | Afp | Getty Images

A spokesperson at ABP, one of Europe’s largest pension funds, welcomed what they billed as “the spirit” of the court’s opinion, but said they do not anticipate any short-term ramifications for financial markets.

“The ICJ’s advisory opinion sends a signal that climate inaction may constitute a breach of international law. However, given its non-binding nature, we don’t expect immediate changes in national policies or financial markets,” an ABP spokesperson told CNBC by email.

The Dutch pension fund, which doesn’t invest in fossil fuels and says it actively supports climate solutions, highlighted that Europe, for example, already has a lot of climate legislation in place.

Environment

Global EV sales hit 10.7M in 2025 – Europe surges, US stalls

Published

15 hours ago

August 14, 2025

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Global EV sales hit 10.7M in 2025 – Europe surges, US stalls

Global EV sales are still riding high, with 1.6 million EVs sold in July 2025, according to new data from global research firm Rho Motion. That’s up 21% from July last year, even though sales dipped 9% from June. It brings total EV sales for the first seven months of the year to 10.7 million – up 27% compared to the same period in 2024.

China stays on top

China continues to dominate, with 6.5 million EVs sold year-to-date, accounting for over half of all global EV sales. BEVs are still the top choice, with sales up 40% this year. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) didn’t fare as well, with domestic sales down 15% month-over-month and 10% year-over-year.

Even though Chinese EV sales dropped 13% in July from June, EVs made up over 50% of all passenger car sales for the third month in a row. The government is helping keep momentum going with another round of Q3 funding for its EV trade-in scheme, and a final 2025 round is expected in October.

Europe’s EV momentum is speeding up

Europe saw a 30% year-to-date jump in EV sales, reaching 2.3 million units. Germany and the UK are leading the pack – Germany’s up 43%, and the UK is up 32%. But France posted just a 9% year-over-year gain in July and is still down 11% for the year.

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To help turn things around, France is revamping its EV leasing program for low-income households starting September 30, aiming to support more than 50,000 purchases.

Meanwhile, Italy is the dark horse of 2025. Thanks to fresh incentives totaling around $700 million, EV sales are up 40%, and the country is quickly catching up to its neighbors. EV market share in Italy now stands at 11%, compared to 27% in Germany and over 30% in the UK.

North America stalls out except for one short-term boost

North America is lagging, with just a 2% bump in EV sales year-to-date. In the US, that’s partly due to policy uncertainty and tariffs. Automakers took a multi-billion-dollar hit in Q2, although some of that was offset by reduced requirements to buy zero-emission vehicle credits.

A spike in demand is expected in Q3, as buyers rush to take advantage of the Inflation Reduction Act’s EV tax credit before it expires on September 30, but a cooldown is then anticipated.

Some automakers are shifting their EV strategies: Ford recently announced a new “Universal EV Platform” and plans to launch a $30,000 midsize electric pickup with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries by 2027.

And on the trade front, the US has inked deals with South Korea, Japan, and the EU to impose a 15% tariff on imported cars.

The bottom line

Global EV sales are still charging ahead, even if the road is bumpy in some regions. China’s holding steady, Europe’s revving up, and North America’s waiting to see what happens next. Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said, “Despite regional variations, the overall trajectory for EV adoption in 2025 remains strongly upward.”

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Environment

Volkswagen is making some EV owners pay extra to unlock full potential

Published

16 hours ago

August 14, 2025

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Volkswagen is making some EV owners pay extra to unlock full potential

Another monthly subscription? Some Volkswagen EV drivers will now need to pay extra to unlock their vehicle’s full potential.

Volkswagen has put performance behind a paywall, at least for ID.3 drivers in the UK. The Volkswagen ID.3 Pro and Pro S are now listed with 201 hp on the UK website.

To unlock the vehicle’s full performance of 228 hp, drivers will now need to pay extra. You can choose from a monthly subscription, starting at £16.50 ($22) per month, or you can opt for a one-time lifetime fee of £649 ($880).

However, the one-time fee is attached to the vehicle, not the buyer. So if it’s sold, the upgrade goes with it. As Auto Express pointed out, the monthly payment is nearly three times that of a standard Netflix membership.

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Although the performance upgrade locks the extra power behind a paywall, Volkswagen said it doesn’t affect range.

Volkswagen isn’t the first, and likely not the last, to make drivers pay for their vehicles’ full potential. Remember when BMW tried to charge $18 a month for heated seats and other features in 2022?

Yeah, that didn’t go over so well. BMW has since dropped the subscription. Other brands, including Polestar, offer similar performance upgrades.

Will Volkswagen try to charge EV drivers in the US or other parts of Europe extra for performance? Given the backlash from BMW, it’s not likely. We’ll see how it goes over in the UK first.

The company is gearing up to launch a new series of entry-level EVs, starting with the ID.2 next year. An SUV version of the ID.2 is scheduled to launch shortly after, followed by the production version of the ID.1, which is set to arrive in 2027. Volkswagen is also considering a “mini Buzz” that could replace the Touran, but nothing has been confirmed.

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